The Rational Irrationalism of North Korea

North Korea keeps ratcheting up the threat index with pronouncements that they're going to unleash nuclear annihilation against the US and South Korea. The threats are definitely crazy, but I think they've been acting as rational irrationalists. What do I mean by this? It means that they're crazy like a fox and have a definite strategy here. They know from past history that crazy gets the goods. Kim Il Song got the West to give humanitarian aid. Kim Jong Il threatened nuclear war and got aid. Now? Kim Jong Un threatens apocalypse and the endgame is to get aid.

Everyone knows the North Korean economy is in shambles. We know it. South Korea knows it. Even the North Koreans know it. They sacked their Prime Minister and replaced him with a guy who was previously sacked for not getting the economy going. The North wouldn't do that unless things were dire.

About the only thing going for the North right now is that they've got nuclear tech and some intermediate range missiles that might work but aren't necessarily accurate. It's enough of a threat though to be taken seriously, which is why the US, South Koreans, and Japanese are moving in theater missile defense systems and orienting their defensive capabilities accordingly. At the same time, the US/SK/Japanese are moving in assets that could deter what could be the next phase of North Korean saber rattling - a small scale provocation such as sinking a South Korean boat, shelling disputed South Korean islands, or threatening South Korean fishermen.

The North has been thoroughly indoctrinated by the Kim clan to consider the US to be equivalent of the Soviets in Red Dawn. Evil that must be thwarted from worldwide supremacy and to protect the honor of the homeland. All that changes is instead of shouting Wolverines!, the North is shouting Juche!

What we take to be defensive action, like moving in assets to the region in response to North claims of nuclear Armageddon is considered a further threat that North Korean leadership considers is justification for their earlier claims.

Now, are the North really so crazy as to light the Korean peninsula aflame, let alone carry out their nuclear threats? If the North doesn't get what it is demanding, would it be really willing to attack the South?

I definitely see the North restarting their shuttered nuclear program, and it also is a bargaining chip that the North could use in essentially shaking down the west for more aid (which the North will spin as winning and tribute to North Korean success).

I don't think they are willing to launch a full scale conflict, but can the South really take that risk? It's places like Seoul that will be on the front line of a North Korean attack given its proximity to the DMZ. The North might be convinced that they could manage the element of surprise and get in a devastating first blow, but it would only be a matter of time before Western technological superiority demolishes the military the North has (and which is largely stuck in the 1960s both with ground and air assets).

Moreover, the Chinese would probably step in to moderate the North's bellicosity before things go wrong for the North. The Chinese don't want a refugee crisis on their border, which is exactly what would happen if the North goes to war. China has trading relations with the South, and an economic hit to the region would hurt the global economy as well.

North Korea Parading Missile Fakes?

Is North Korea parading fakes for the world to see, but lacking any real capability to field the equipment? That's the conclusion of a team of missile technology experts who have reviewed the photos and video of missiles paraded before Kim Jong Un during the 100th anniversary of his grandfather's birth earlier this month.

But the weapons displayed April 15 appear to be a mishmash of liquid-fuel and solid-fuel components that could never fly together. Undulating casings on the missiles suggest the metal is too thin to withstand flight. Each missile was slightly different from the others, even though all were supposedly the same make. They don't even fit the launchers they were carried on.

"There is no doubt that these missiles were mock-ups," Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker, of Germany's Schmucker Technologie, wrote in a paper posted recently on the website Armscontrolwonk.com that listed those discrepancies. "It remains unknown if they were designed this way to confuse foreign analysts, or if the designers simply did some sloppy work."

The missiles, called KN-08s, were loaded onto the largest mobile launch vehicles North Korea has ever unveiled. Pyongyang gave them special prominence by presenting them at the end of the parade, which capped weeks of celebrations marking the 100th anniversary of the country's founding father, Kim Il Sung.

The unveiling created an international stir. The missiles appeared to be new, and designed for long-range attacks.

The missiles appear to be a mish-mash of variations on a single missile design. That could have been intended so as to give misinformation to experts peering down on those missiles but it just as likely could be that the North Korean fabricators couldn't get the details right.

The missile carriers, which apparently are based on a Chinese design, were far larger than the missiles they were carrying, which could indicate the North Korean intention to build still larger missiles, but it also shows that the North Koreans are an indeterminate period of time away from fielding a credible long range missile force capable of hitting the US. It could still hit US interests overseas, but the country remains a regional threat for all of its bluster.

North Korea took more than a decade between showing off the previous generation of missile, the Taepodong-2, at a military parade and actually putting on a launching pad.

North Korea has thus far failed to successfully launch any of its long range missiles in four attempts since 1998. Some experts suggest that the only way North Korea could field an ICBM is if someone gives it to them because of the lack of industrial capabilities to do so. I think that's overstating the problems facing the North Korean regime and underestimating their capabilities to circumvent sanctions in place. We do so at our peril.

North Korean Missile Launch Ends In Failure

It was meant to be a great achievement and significant accomplishment for the regime of Kim Jong Un to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Song. The North Koreans would launch its most complex missile and satellite payload into space.

Yet, it blew up just about a minute into its boost phase. It likely didn't even clear North Korean airspace, although some parts may have fallen into South Korean waters.

Officials from the United States, South Korea and Japan called the launch a failure, and the Japanese government said the rocket had disintegrated into several pieces while still in North Korean territory or over South Korean waters.

“We believe that the rocket fell apart several minutes after the takeoff,” said Kim Min-seok, a spokesman for South Korea’s Defense Ministry. He said the assessment of both the South Korean and American intelligence monitors was that “the North Korean missile launching has failed.”

The rocket, called the Unha-3, blasted off from the Soehae launch site near North Korea’s western corner with China, at about 7:39 a.m., , the South Korea Defense Ministry spokesman said.

In Washington, a senior Obama administration official said the United States would follow through on its threat to suspend a recent agreement to supply food aid to North Korea despite the launch’s failure. The official also said the failure had proved the effectiveness of sanctions already in place on North Korea, which had deprived the isolated country of access needed for a successful program.

There was no immediate announcement of the launch from the North.

Failure isn't an option for North Korea's missile experts. So, when today's rocket launch ended in failure just a minute into the launch, it's not going to end well for them.

They will likely be purged or otherwise explain away their failures as sabotage by the US, South Koreans, or even the result of solar flares or radiation damage.

All the while, North Korean civilians suffer while all the nation's resources are fully committed to missile technologies, weapons development, and nuclear development while it can't even feed itself.

Is North Korea Contemplating New Nuclear Test As It Readies Missile For Launch

North Korea has been quite busy in the past couple of days with pronouncements about preparing for a test of a new long rang missile. Now, South Korea is warning of possible preparations by the North to conduct a new underground nuclear weapons test. All this comes just months after Kim Jong Un assumed the role of national leader following the death of his father Kim Jong Il. The missile test and potential nuclear test are another sign that Jong Un is following the path laid down by his father - to use nuclear blackmail to obtain still more concessions on humanitarian aid to help feed the nation:

The South Korean intelligence report says it is highly probable that after the long-range rocket launch, North Korea will use the ensuing international condemnation as an excuse to go ahead with the nuclear test in Punggye-ri, the site in the country's northeast where the other two tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009.

The report, which said such a test would be considered a grave provocation, includes satellite images that it claims were filmed recently and show the final stages of a tunnel being dug at the site.

The photos show an unusual pile of earth and sand near the opening of the tunnel, and the report says this pile has been slowly increasing since March.

North Korean state media have not made an announcement regarding plans for a new nuclear test. Two senior U.S. officials said the United States also had reason to believe that the North was planning such an action.

"Once again this shows ...they know how to manipulate the world," said Andrei Lankov of Seoul's Kookmin University.

"If they do a missile launch and in few months a successful nuclear test, especially a uranium based nuclear device, it will send a very strong message to the world. The same message they always want to deliver -- we are here, we are dangerous, unpredictable and it's better to deal with us by giving us monetary and food concessions."

Japan is readying missile defense systems ahead of the North Korean test launch. The North continues to claim that it is a test of a civilian missile system and experts who have seen the missile note that it is configured for civilian purposes, but the missile would provide the North with critical data for use and incorporation in the North's long range missile program. The North has repeated given and/or sold technical data on missile technologies to countries such as Pakistan and Iran, and the North has also been a source of worry about nuclear proliferation.

The missile test is timed to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, Jong Un's grandfather and founder of the North Korean regime.

North Korea Agrees To Moratorium on Nuclear Weapons, Missile Development

This is being hailed as a significant breakthrough, and it should be. However, we need to be vigilant that North Korea isn't double dealing - saying one thing to the US all while engaging in clandestine operations or proliferation activities.

The United States said Wednesday North Korea has agreed to suspend nuclear activities and accept a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests, in a breakthrough in negotiations with the secretive communist nation.

The announcement comes little more than two months after the death of longtime ruler Kim Jong Il, and suggests North Korea has met the key U.S. preconditions for restarting multi-nation disarmament-for-aid talks that the North withdrew from in 2009.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the North has agreed to allow International Atomic Energy inspectors to verify and monitor the moratorium on uranium enrichment and confirm disablement of its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon.

Her statement says the US will meet with North Korea to finalize details for a proposed package of 240,000 metric tons of food aid.

North Korea issued a similar, although differently worded statement released simultaneously in Pyongyang.

An unidentified spokesman from North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in its statement carried by the state-run news agency that the North agreed to the nuclear moratoriums and the allowance of U.N. inspectors "with a view to maintaining positive atmosphere" for the U.S.-North Korea talks.

The announcement follows talks in Beijing last week between U.S. and North Korean negotiators, the first since negotiations were suspended after Kim's death in December from a heart attack.

Before his death, the U.S. and North Korea were close to such an agreement, which appears to meets U.S. preconditions for restarting the six-nation talks suspended three years ago.

Allowing inspectors to review operations at known nuclear facilities is an improvement, and may mean that the regime under Kim Jong Un is moving away from the militaristic tone set by his father. It may also mean that the regime recognizes just how bad its socio-economic conditions are and that the need for food aid is finally driving the regime to curtail its military programs. The agricultural situation in the country may be even worse than the regime is letting on.

That may be wishful thinking - but if the regime has to begin focusing on improving its agricultural resources so that the nation doesn't starve while curtailing the nuclear and missile programs, then that's a significant accomplishment of the sanctions regime in place.

New Details Emerge In Iranian Mystery Missile Base Blast

A few weeks back, an Iranian missile-testing site at Bid Kaneh was rocked by a tremendous explosion that damaged the facility and killed workers associated with the missile program. New details have emerged about the base, which is located near Tehran, and what may have happened.

In interviews, current and former officials said surveillance photos showed that the Iranian base was a central testing center for advanced solid-fuel missiles, an assessment backed by outside experts who have examined satellite photos showing that the base was almost completely leveled in the blast. Such missiles can be launched almost instantly, making them useful to Iran as a potential deterrent against pre-emptive attacks by Israel or the United States, and they are also better suited than older liquid-fuel designs for carrying warheads long distances.

It is still unclear what caused the explosion, with American officials saying they believe it was probably an accident, perhaps because of Iran’s inexperience with a volatile, dangerous technology. Iran declared it an accident, but subsequent discussions of the episode in the Iranian news media have referred to the chief of Iran’s missile program as one of the “martyrs” killed in the huge explosion. Some Iranian officials have talked of sabotage, but it is unclear whether that is based on evidence or surmise after several years in which Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated on Tehran’s streets, and a highly sophisticated computer worm has attacked its main uranium production facility.

Both American and Israeli officials, in discussing the explosion in recent days, showed little curiosity about its cause. “Anything that buys us time and delays the day when the Iranians might be able to mount a nuclear weapon on an accurate missile is a small victory,” one Western intelligence official who has been deeply involved in countering the Iranian nuclear program said this weekend. “At this point, we’ll take whatever we can get, however it happens.”

In addition to providing a potential deterrent to attackers, Iran’s advances in solid-fuel missile technology, and the concern it could eventually have intercontinental reach, have been at the heart of the Obama administration’s insistence on the need for new missile-defense programs.

Here's a photo of the base before the explosion:

Here's a photo of the base following the explosion:

You can see significant damage to multiple structures, including two that look to have been completely obliterated by the explosion. The facility was apparently testing solid-rocket technologies, and no one seems to know what happened. There's some speculation that sabotage may have played a role, or that a US UAV strike hit the base, but that is mere rumor and unsupported by any evidence - even from an Iranian media that has no problem proffering bogus information as news (such as claiming it shot down US unmanned vehicles, or reporting that the US is carrying out more UAV airstrikes than has been reported - using the same information in each of the reports).

Private Spacecraft To Fly To International Space Station In November

The last space shuttle mission ended a few weeks back, and it was expected that the US would have to rely on Russian spacecraft to get into space. Well, it turns out that SpaceX will be launching its Dragon capsule for an unmanned mission in November that serves not only as a test of the system, but will pave the way for private manned space missions.

We heard last month that NASA agreed to speed up SpaceX’s flight demo schedule, as SpaceX, eager to start making deliveries under its $1.6 billion NASA contract, asked NASA for permission to combine two planned missions into one. That mission is now targeted for the week after Thanksgiving, according to SpaceX.

In this demonstration under NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program, SpaceX will launch its Dragon capsule aboard a Falcon 9 rocket Nov. 30, and dock with the ISS nine days later. It will carry a limited payload to the station, which is fully stocked through next year thanks to the final shuttle delivery.

SpaceX will apparently use the opportunity to launch some other stuff, too, using the Falcon’s second stage that will deploy after the Dragon capsule separates from its fairing.

The Dragon capsule, the first privately built reusable spacecraft, made its first flight in December, and SpaceX has been conducting tests and dry runs in the months since. The company said it is working out the kinks in its COTS plans so that NASA will give final approval for a single mission.

Iran Test Fires Long Range Missiles Capable of Hitting Israel; US Strategic Interests

It's that time of year again. Iran is once again carrying out war games and testing its latest batch of ballistic missiles.

The Iranian regime claims that this latest batch is capable of hitting Israel and US bases in the Middle East - oh and that the war games are a message of peace to the region:

The head of the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace division emphasized Iran's preparedness to strike Israel and U.S. interests in the event of any attack on Iran.

"The range of our missiles has been designed based on American bases in the region as well as the Zionist regime," Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh told the semi-official Fars news agency.

Washington and Israel have said they do not rule out military strikes on Iran if diplomatic means fail to stop it developing nuclear weapons.

Tehran denies its nuclear program is aimed at building bombs.
IRNA said the Guards fired nine Zelzal missiles, two Shahab-1s, two Shahab-2s and one upgraded Shahab-3 missile.

Iranian officials have previously announced that the Shahab 3 can reach targets up to 2,000 km away, putting Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf within reach.

A long-time enemy of the U.S., Iran has been emboldened by what it sees as U.S. military defeats in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan. Both countries are still home to large troop numbers and Washington has other bases in the Gulf that Iran could choose to target.

"The Americans have reduced our labors," Hajizadeh told Fars. "Their military bases in the region are in a range of 130, 250 and maximum 700 km in Afghanistan which we can hit with these missiles."

The 'Great Prophet 6' war games, to be carried out on land and sea, are a "message of peace and friendship to countries of the region," Hajizadeh said on Monday.

The war games are about intimidation and threats, particularly to the US and Israel. It's about getting countries that might be on the fence about Iran's nuclear program to contemplate silence because they're now within range of Iranian missiles.

There are also reports that Iran has built missile silos around the country:



This development is hardly surprising given the way that Iran has attempted to carry out covert nuclear technology development including the use of underground bunkers to hide the work from spy satellites and to harden the sites against potential military strikes. It's why the US and other countries are hard at work developing bunker-busting missile technologies - to overcome the difficulty in hitting and destroying hardened targets.

Iran is also preparing to launch a missile with a monkey into space:


That's seen as a step towards being able to send a man into space (if Iran follows the development cycle on rockets/missiles in the US, Russia, and China) - successive missiles that have heavier lift capabilities and the ability to send payloads to orbit as well as carrying heavier payloads. Military use is not ruled out either - as such missiles would extend the reach of the Iranian regime to threaten targets far outside the Middle East.

UPDATE:
Curiously, some of the footage showing missile launches doesn't show the launch vehicles and the missiles being fired - only showing missiles flying in the air. That could be done on purpose so as to avoid misfires or missiles that failed to fire as they should have.

Other footage above shows anti-aircraft guns firing and other equipment on the ground, so it is likely that this was done on purpose to avoid having to doctor photos showing the missile launches when they actually failed to fire.

Egypt Protests Continue Amid Mubarak Moves To Stay In Power

Egyptian protesters continue calling for Hosni Mubarak to step down, and the protesters have some new ammunition in their calls- the fact that so many of those officials connected with the Mubarak regime banking billions that should have gone to the people.

As part of a new openness meant to appease the anti-government protesters, the newspaper Al-Masry al-Youm printed startling estimates of the wealth of former top officials who are suddenly being investigated for corruption:

*Ahmed Ezz, a steel magnate who was Organisation Secretary of the ruling party: $3 billion. Prosecutors said Ezz had $300,000 in 1989.

*Former Housing Minister Ahmed al-Maghraby: $1.8 billion

*Former Tourism Minister Zuhair Garrana: $2.2 billion

*Former Minister of Trade and Industry Rashid Mohamed Rashid: $2 billion

*Former Interior Minister Habib al-Adly: $1.3 billion

Their assets have been frozen and state prosecutors are readying corruption charges.

The newspaper reported three of the former ministers tried to leave the country in recent days but were denied permission to travel at Cairo Airport.

The average Egyptian takes home $60 a week, according to Egypt's Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.

The salary hikes and corruption investigations follow Sunday's promises from the embattled government to open up elections, lift martial law and free political prisoners.

None of those steps - even though unthinkable just two weeks ago - have been enough to convince the protesters to stand down.

Even though there are some in Egypt who are tiring of the protests, the grievances are real and there appears to be a sufficiently motivated group that will keep the pressure on the Mubarak government to force him to step down.

It will matter little to the Egyptian people that Mubarak just increased government pay by 15% when tens of millions of Egyptians are barely getting by with $2 a day, which is far below what the Egyptian government statistics suggests.



The pace of concessions shows that Mubarak is desperate to remain in power, and that is ultimately his goal.

Meanwhile, US officials are beginning to take a much closer look at the Egyptian military and its secret weapons projects, which have been going on for more than three decades.

NBC News has obtained more than a dozen documents from the United States, Russia and Israel that shed some light on several Egyptian weapons of mass destruction programs, including its nuclear potential and details of a joint North Korean-Egyptian missile development agreement.

The reason the U.S. didn’t move, officials say, was Egypt’s role as a staunch U.S. ally and stabilizing force in the Middle East and later as a key player in U.S. counterterrorism efforts.

If Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is forced to step down, new leadership in Cairo could mean a radical change in that relationship, analysts say.

Iran-Venezuela Relations Firm Up

Some reports are indicating that Iran and Venezuela are firming up their relations, and that Iran is even stationing intermediate range missiles in the country.

According to Die Welt, Venezuela has agreed to allow Iran to establish a military base manned by Iranian missile officers, soldiers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Venezuelan missile officers. In addition, Iran has given permission for the missiles to be used in case of an "emergency". In return, the agreement states that Venezuela can use these facilities for "national needs" – radically increasing the threat to neighbors like Colombia. The German daily claims that according to the agreement, Iranian Shahab 3 (range 1300-1500 km), Scud-B (285-330 km) and Scud-C (300, 500 and 700 km) will be deployed in the proposed base. It says that Iran also pledged to help Venezuela in rocket technology expertise, including intensive training of officers

Venezuela has also become the country through which Iran intends to bypass UN sanctions. Following a new round of UN sanctions against the Islamic Republic, for example, Russia decided not to sell five battalions of S-300PMU-1 air defence systems to Iran. These weapons, along with a number of other weapons, were part of a deal, signed in 2007, worth $800 million. Now that these weapons cannot be delivered to Iran, Russia is looking for new customers; according to the Russian press agency Novosti[2], it found one: Venezuela.

Novosti reports the words of Igor Korotchenko, head of a Moscow-based think tank on international arms trade, saying that if the S-300 deal with Venezuela goes through, Caracas should pay cash for the missiles, rather than take another loan from Russia. "The S-300 is a very good product and Venezuela should pay the full amount in cash, as the country's budget has enough funds to cover the deal ," Korotchenko said. Moscow has already provided Caracas with several loans to buy Russian-made weaponry, including a recent $2.2-mln loan on the purchase of 92 T-72M1M tanks, the Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems and other military equipment.

The sides plan on building the new base some time in 2011.


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Drudge has ramped up the hype on the story, claiming that the missiles could hit the US. Assuming that the Venezuelans station their missiles at the closest point relative to the US, they'd still be outside the range of hitting the continental US. A missile flying from Caracas to Key West, Florida would have to travel 1373 miles or 1193 nautical miles. The Shahab missile's top range may be 932 miles, which means that it may barely make it - it's at the extreme range and Iranian missile technology isn't exactly known for its reliability or accuracy (then again, neither is its photo editing skills in covering up the unreliability of its missiles and rockets).

That doesn't mean that the Iranian missile threat is nonexistent. Those missiles could still threaten US bases in Puerto Rico, Guantanamo Bay, or US interests throughout the Carribean including the US Virgin Islands and our allies in Latin America.

This is all part of a continuing attempt by the Iranians to sow discord and spread its anti-US message around the world. It has found a fellow-traveler in the form of Hugo Chavez, who regularly lambastes the US and has a long record of suppressing dissent.

The report also once again reinforces the need for the US to continue work on missile defense technologies to deal with threats such as these.

Defense Department Says Mysterious California Contrails Wasn't Produced By Military Missile; UPDATE: Did Blogger Solve Mystery?

The US military has ruled out that the contrails seen off the California coast weren't produced by one of their missiles, but they can't say what exactly did produce the plume.

More than a day after a CBS camera caught video of an unidentified projectile leaving a condensation trail off the California coast, the situation remains a mystery, with the Defense Department insisting that it was not a missile.

The Pentagon is still not sure what that was in the sky off the coast of California -- except that it was not a missile fired by the U.S. or some other country, reports CBS News Pentagon correspondent David Martin.

The video of what looks for all the world like the contrail of a missile was shot Monday evening by KCBS cameraman Gil Leyvas from a news helicopter over Los Angeles.

"I saw a big plume coming up, rising from looked like beyond the horizon and it continued to grow," Leyvas said.

He zoomed his camera in and stayed on it for about 10 minutes. To him it looked like an incoming missile.

They figure it was either an amateur rocket or aircraft contrails. ABC News says that there are no indications that this was a foreign military weapon system either. The FAA says that they didn't catch anything on their radar tapes, and the military says that they didn't schedule or inadvertently launch missiles in the vicinity.

UPDATE:
The NY Post reports that a blogger may have solved the mystery by noting that one of two flights were in the vicinity of the suspect contrails. It was either an America West or UPS flight.

Liem Bahneman on Wednesday pinpointed America West flight 808 as the likely cause -- backing up an explanation offered by a senior military official to Fox News Channel that the contrail caught on video by a news helicopter “was more likely caused by an airplane than anything else."

Bahneman wonders if he is the first to call it: "I did a lot of extrapolation of what flights could be at the right position (off the coast) at the right altitude (for contrail formation) and came down to two possibilities: UPS flight 902 (UPS902) or America West flight 808 (AWE808)."

UPDATE:
The Post gets the flight information wrong. Bahneman says that it was US Airways flight 808. The flight originates in Phoenix and ends in Honolulu.

Mysterious Missile Launch Off California Coast Confounds

No one quite knows for sure who or what was launched off the coast of Southern California.



The US Defense Department is thus far saying that it isn't one of theirs, but that isn't exactly a comforting thought. If it is one of our missiles, it could have been a secret test launch and that would explain the denials.

However, the alternative, that some foreign entity fired a missile off the coast and no one at NORAD or other military branches knows who or what fired the missile is far more disconcerting.

UPDATE:
The Defense Department continues denying any role in the missile launch and they are working with the FAA to determine who fired off the missile and what was the purpose/payload. There is speculation that it could have been an amateur or commercial launch, but the specter of terrorism is present as well.

UPDATE:
Reports that this might be a previously announced military test, as the FAA appears to have sent out a warning to avoid the general vicinity where the missile was launched don't match the timeframe of the launch. This information is for a period of time starting today into tomorrow for the affected area:

KZLA LOS ANGELES A2832/10

– THE FOLLOWING RESTRICTIONS ARE REQUIRED DUE TO NAVAL AIR WARFARE CENTER WEAPONS DIVISION ACTIVATION OF W537. IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY, ALL NON-PARTICIPATING PILOTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID W537. IFR TRAFFIC UNDER ATC JURISDICTION SHOULD ANTICIPATE CLEARANCE AROUND W537 AND CAE 1176. CAE 1155 WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR OCEANIC TRANSITION. CAE 1316 & CAE 1318 WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR OCEANIC TRANSITION. CAE 1177 WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR OCEANIC TRANSITION. W537 ACTIVE, CAE 1176 CLOSED. SURFACE – FL390, 09 NOV 20:00 2010 UNTIL 10 NOV 01:00 2010. CREATED: 08 NOV 20:52 2010

from pilotweb.nas.faa.gov

We'd have to search back further to see if there was a similar warning for the evening of November 8 (last night) and thus far there is no indication of any similar warning on the FAA website.

UPDATE:
US Northern Command says that they don't know what it was, but it wasn't a threat to the US.

U.S. Northern Command says it’s “unable to provide specific details … [but] can confirm that there is no threat to our nation, and from all indications this was not a launch by a foreign military.”

Come again?

What they appear to be saying is that it was a not-nearly-as-secret secret US program and even NORTHCOM hasn't been read into the program to comment? Because that's what the implication of their statement is. Expect CYA alerts in 3...2...1...

Because the possibilities of the alternatives is quite disturbing (that a foreign country/entity launched a missile within miles of the US coast and no one in the DoD seems to know what happened.

UPDATE:
Danger Room has some more updates, and castigates NORAD and NORTHCOM for their inability to promptly determine what exactly was shown in the video:

Meanwhile, naval analyst Raymond Pritchett makes a smart point: that the mystery itself is becoming a security problem.

“When someone makes an unannounced launch what looks to be a ballistic missile 35 miles from the nations second largest city (at sea in international waters), and 18 hours later NORAD still doesn’t have any answers at all – that complete lack of information represents a credible threat to national security,” he writes. “If NORAD can’t answer the first and last question, then I believe it is time to question every single penny of ballistic missile defense funding in the defense budget. NORTHCOM needs to start talking about what they do know, rather than leaving the focus on what they don’t know.”

If this was indeed aircraft contrails, then the FAA should be able to figure it out from the radar tapes of the area. If it wasn't, then NORAD and NORTHCOM had better figure out what happened here.

Iran Unveils Its Ambassador of Death

It's that time of year when Iran announces its latest weapons systems amid great fanfare (and frequently more than a little photo editing assistance). It announced a new unmanned missile system - realistically it's a form of a UAV that may have a payload system.

The news comes on the heels of Iran fueling its Bushehr nuclear reactor. Iran framed the missile as both the ambassador of death and a "message of hope."

The Iranian military displayed the drone, dubbed the Karrar - or "striker" - at a ceremony attended by top officials. State media say it can carry out long-range attacks up to 1,000 kilometers carrying a 200-kilogram bomb.

President Ahmadinejad called the Karrar a symbol of death to Iran's enemies.

But he also argued the drone serves as "a messenger of salvation and dignity for humanity". The Iranian leader said it is aimed at deterring any act of foreign aggression.

As tensions continue to rise over Iran's disputed nuclear program, so too have discussions of a possible military action by Israel to disrupt it. Israel has not ruled out a strike, in the face of Iranian officials' repeated vows to destroy what it refers to as the Zionist entity.

On Saturday, Iran began loading its long-delayed Bushehr nuclear power plant with fuel. Inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency were on hand to witness the launch of the Russian-built reactor.

Right. This missile is meant to act as a purported deterrent against a possible strike against Iran from Israel or the US. Iran continues building up its long range capabilities against its enemies in the region. That not only includes the Israelis or US bases, but the other Arab countries in the region.

Of course, Iran has been working on its long range strike capabilities for years now, and not all of its efforts have been successful. Despite obtaining missile technology from the North Koreans, the Iranians have had issues with the technology.

It also again highlights the need for missile defense for the US to protect its strategic interests in the region.

Hizbullah Admits Violating UN SCR 1701 By Getting Scud Missiles From Syria

There have been scattered reports over the past couple of weeks that Hizbullah has obtained Scud missiles from Syria. Today, Hizbullah announced that they indeed obtained the missiles, but goes on to claim that they aren't in working order. Yet, Hizbullah also said that they'd use them and the other missiles in their arsenal if Israel attacked Lebanon.

Hizbullah sources confirmed on Thursday that the group had received a shipment of Scud missiles from Syria, the Kuwaiti paper Al-Rai reported.

But the missiles were old and unusable, according to the sources. Hizbullah also accused Israel of blowing the incident out of proportion to provoke a media ruckus.

“Our organization has many surface-to-surface missiles spread across all of Lebanon, in case Israel attacks the country again,” the Hizbullah sources said.

Despite this confirmation of what Jerusalem has been saying for days, the Syrian Foreign Ministry denied the reports, saying Israel was trying to stoke tensions in the region and could be setting the stage for an Israeli “aggression” to avoid Middle East peace requirements.

Thursday’s Syrian statement came after President Shimon Peres accused Syria of supplying the Lebanese group with Scuds for the first time.

Israeli defense officials also have said they believe Hizbullah has Scud missiles, and that the projectiles could alter the strategic balance with the Islamist group.

Let's remind everyone of what's going on here. The UN, through UNIFIL, is supposed to disarm all militias operating in Southern Lebanon including Hizbullah pursuant to UN SCR 1701.

This is a direct violation of that Security Council resolution, but don't expect anyone to demand compliance. It just isn't going to happen so Israel will have to take matters into its own hands eventually.

Hizbullah started a war in 2006 and subsequently fired thousands of short range missiles into Israel and Israel responded by invading Southern Lebanon to root out the weapons caches that Hizbullah placed in and around civilian areas and even UNIFIL outposts.

A Scud missile is a significant upgrade over the kassam/katuysha missile used since it provides significantly longer range and a higher payload. It is a terror weapon since its guidance systems are anything but accurate. Those firing the missiles merely point it in the general direction of their target and hope that it hits. Such a scenario is more than sufficient to pose a serious threat to Israel, where the bulk of Israel's population is along the Mediterranean coast and on an axis between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Hizbullah's intent is to maximize casualties - both among Israelis and among Lebanese civilians who happen to be living in and around the Hizbullah weapons caches as Hizbullah hopes to maximize the body count for propaganda purposes.

Is Iran Testing Sophisticated Nuclear Warhead Design?

Are the Iranians working on a sophisticate nuclear warhead design that would allow the regime to place nuclear warheads on its missile systems? That's the implication of a report in the Guardian.

The UN's nuclear watchdog has asked Iran to explain evidence suggesting that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, the Guardian has learned.

The very existence of the technology, known as a "two-point implosion" device, is officially secret in both the US and Britain, but according to previously unpublished documentation in a dossier compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of the design. The development was today described by nuclear experts as "breathtaking" and has added urgency to the effort to find a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis.

The sophisticated technology, once mastered, allows for the production of smaller and simpler warheads than older models. It reduces the diameter of a warhead and makes it easier to put a nuclear warhead on a missile.

Documentation referring to experiments testing a two-point detonation design are part of the evidence of nuclear weaponisation gathered by the IAEA and presented to Iran for its response.

The designs are used in advanced nuclear weapons, permitting smaller weapons that can fit on warheads. They are officially a state secret in the US, although the fundamental knowledge that goes into them are widely available.

That's why preventing access to weapons grade uranium is so critical. Once a nation has weapons grade uranium, obtaining a nuclear weapon is a matter of putting widely available technological components together. It takes a significant amount of energy and time to enrich uranium; thousands of centrifuges spinning furious for months at a time to get enough to make sufficient U235 for a nuclear weapon.

The IAEA doesn't know for sure if those Iranian tests occurred, and has no way of verifying either. Iran continues to obfuscate and thwart any efforts to contain its nuclear ambitions, all while continuing to threaten Israel and saber rattle against any attempts to make Iran conform to the NPT.

Also, revelations about these tests once again confirms the need to engage in missile defense research and the deployment of operational systems to prevent Iran from launching attacks against our allies in the region and Europe - all within range of Iran's missile systems.

On My Nightstand: Rocket Men; The Epic Story of the First Men on the Moon

If you've ever stared up at the moon and wondered what it took to land men on the moon, Rocket Men: The Epic Story of the First Men on the Moon is the book for you. It goes behind the scenes and is a gripping tale of how hundreds of thousands of people came together to work on a technological marvel that included millions of parts, all to get three people to the moon with two landing on its surface.

Iran Tests Short Range Missiles As World Twiddles Thumbs

The West may eventually get around to agreeing on how to inspect the latest Iranian nuclear facility that they revealed at the end of the UN General Assembly meetings this week, but Iran isn't stopping with its nuclear program or its missile technology upgrades.

They test fired more missiles today.

The missile maneuvers coincide with increased tension in Iran's nuclear dispute with the West, after last week's disclosure by Tehran that it is building a second uranium enrichment plant.

State radio said the Guards on Monday would test-fire the Shahab 3 missile, which Iranian officials say has a range of around 2,000 km, potentially putting Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf within reach. It has been tested several times before.

Iran's English-language Press TV said two short-range missiles as well as a multiple missile launcher were tested on the exercise's first day.

It showed footage of a missile launch in desert-like terrain, leaving a vapor trail.

"Iran tests two short-range missiles," it said in a scrolling headline, naming them as the ground-to-ground Fateh (Victorious) missile and the Tondar (Thunder) naval missile.

The Revolutionary Guards said "the drill aims to maintain and boost the country's armed forces deterrent capabilities," Press TV said.

That's clearly putting a thumb in the eye of the West and the US in particular.

The Iranian tests often coincide with statements of bravado and threats against those who might seek to restrict Iran's nuclear technologies. This is little different.

Obama Cancels European Missile Defense

It's official. President Barack Obama has cancelled plans to install missile defense systems in Eastern Europe. This is a spectacularly bad idea, especially since it would protect Europe (our allies) from a potential rogue missile launch from Iran. Given that Russia has had no problems moving its own missile defense systems up to its border to protect against a North Korean missile launch, one has to seriously wonder why the President is giving up the farm here.

What is he getting in return for giving up this program? Assurances from the Russians? Wiggle room to deal with Iran? Neither of those countries can be trusted, and yet the President blithely pushes ahead with undermining US strategic and security interests in Europe.

No, it claims that the Iran missile program hasn't advanced as far as they've claimed. I've reported on Iran's missile technologies previously, but that should not prevent the installation of missile defense systems now, to protect against a possible launch out of the blue when you're not expecting it. After all, US intel on Iran isn't exactly 100% accurate having missed all manner of problems over the years, including the overthrow of the Shah and the rise of the Islamofascists to say nothing of Iran's nuclear intentions. The prudent course here would be to install the missile defense systems and not have to ever use them than to wring hands should a missile be fired that could have been shot down - saving and protecting the lives of Europeans in the process.

North Korean Fires Seven Missiles In Defiance

You have to hand it to the North Koreans. They certainly know how to throw a tantrum when people's attentions are cast elsewhere. The North Koreans had been warning that they would fire missiles in the direction of Hawaii, and while they did fire seven missiles, none were long range missiles with the capacity to hit Hawaii.

The launches, which came two days after North Korea fired four short-range cruise missiles, will likely further escalate tensions in the region as the U.S. tries to muster support for tough enforcement of the latest U.N. Security Council resolution imposed on the communist regime for its May nuclear test.

A senior State Department official told FOX News there is "no reason to doubt these reports we're all seeing."

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said three missiles were fired early Saturday, a fourth around noon and three more in the afternoon. The Defense Ministry said that the missiles were ballistic and are believed to have flown more than 250 miles.

"Our military is fully ready to counter any North Korean threats and provocations based on strong South Korea-U.S. combined defense posture," the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted military officials as saying the missiles appeared to be a type of Scud missile. North Korea's Scuds are considered short-range, the South's military said.

All of the missile launches are in violation of UN Security Council resolutions, but as we've repeatedly seen, North Korea couldn't care less about the UN or resolutions. They seek the rest of the world as weak and incapable of mounting a credible response.

North Korea Threatens Independence Day Missile Launch At Hawaii

Kim Il Jung must have not liked being cast off the front pages of international pages even after firing off a nuclear weapon test, and has decided that the way to get interest back on him is to do something that is potentially insane, and definitely could be construed an act of war.

He's threatening to fire a missile at Hawaii.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates has ordered missile defense systems to be deployed to Hawaii. It would definitely appear that missile defense systems are needed after all.

Meanwhile, the US is tracking a North Korean ship that may be carrying nuclear technologies.