In the Wake of Charlie Hebdo

As of this posting, there are at least two separate hostage standoff situations near Paris. One is at a kosher market (I've heard it referred to as a supermarket, deli, or grocery) on Ave Porte de Vincennes in the 13th Arr (that'd be Southeastern Paris). The other is near Charles de Gaulle airport. There have also been reports of an incident near the Eiffel Tower in the Trocadero, but so far news about that incident is limited.

There have been casualties reported in one of the incidents, with at least two dead.

The two standoff situations appear related to each other and to the Charlie Hebdo attacks, as well as a separate attack resulting in the death of a French policewoman the other day. It's likely all part of the same cell.

Yet, there's something irking me about all this. We're being told that it required training and tactics to carry off the attacks, but yet the best that this cell could manage is to kill a bunch of unarmed journalists and a couple of cops who were caught by surprise and off-guard before engaging in standoffs at locations like a grocery store.

Is this the best that al Qaeda in Yemen can do?

I know that sounds off or somehow callous but if you're studying tactics, methods, and capabilities, al Qaeda has gone from being able to pull off spectacular attacks against the USS Cole (a military target no less), the African embassy bombings that killed hundreds of people, and 9/11, which killed nearly 3,000 people and injured thousands more, to now being able to attack a French satire paper.

That's quite telling about the limits of what al Qaeda is able to do more than a decade after 9/11. It doesn't mean let your guard down, but it should also put things in perspective.

Also putting things into perspective? That the cry and hue about Muslims overwhelming Europe are so vastly overblown that a handy dandy visual is needed to hammer it home:

This is the best visualization I've yet seen of Europe's "Muslim tide" hysteria pic.twitter.com/a681LGp4yR

— Doug Saunders (@DougSaunders) January 9, 2015

Or, perhaps a few other statistics about the threats from terrorism:

Less Than 2 Percent Of Terrorist Attacks In The E.U. Are Religiously Motivated. http://t.co/NAuKUyYXNn

— lawhawk (@lawhawk) January 9, 2015

And if you're listening closely, just substitute Jew for Muslim in all those calls for banning Muslims from entering the country because the acts of a handful are indicative of the intent of all (and that's the most limited kind of rhetoric streaming from the right, which also includes expulsion and flat out genocide). Even in France, where anti-Semitism is rampant, the fact is that most people - of all religions - just want to live in peace, and there are those who want to deny everyone that opportunity. They happen to include Islamist extremists who do not speak for all Muslims.

So, while attention is rightly focused on Paris and the search for the Charlie Hebdo killers, there's Muslims living in fear of Islamic extremists the world over, and few places are more dangerous right now for Muslims than Nigeria where Boko Haram is operating with ruthless abandon. This terror group is rampaging across northeastern Nigeria, where reports of slaughter continue. That terror group is now threatening Cameroon as well, and Niger has now refused to assist Nigeria in retaking the area around Baga. Reports continue circulating that 2,000 or more people were killed by Boko Haram since the start of the year there, and that at least 20,000 people have been displaced. Some reportedly drowned attempting to flee across Lake Chad.

Yet, the silence and lack of media reports and access means that this horrific attack isn't getting anywhere near the press coverage of the attacks in Paris.

Cross posted to LGF.

The Gaza War Continues: Where Do We Go From Here?

The latest battle in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas (Operation Protective Edge) continued without any sign of letup. Israel's military continues ground operations inside Gaza, while Hamas has continued firing rockets and missiles at Israel. Israeli ground forces have taken casualties while Gazan casualties continue to grow.

Thus far, Palestinians living in Gaza have taken the brunt of the fighting. There have been hundreds of casualties and it is still unclear just how many of them are civilians and how many have been Hamas fighters. Media outlets are relying almost exclusively on Hamas and PA sources for casualty counts, and Hamas has been notorious with lying about who was killed and conflating their casualties with civilians.

It is indisputable that Israel has hit civilians, including children in the course of the fighting and trying to hit at Hamas terrorists who are entrenched in urban areas and firing at Israel from within civilian areas. Israel reports that they've killed at least 270 terrorists, while the UN indicates that 479 have been killed overall, including 364 civilians, 76 militants, and 39 who they can't classify. Gaza's Health Ministry puts the tally at 632 killed and nearly 3,800 wounded.

It is also indisputable that Hamas has no problem firing from civilian positions including schools and UN facilities. For the second time in a week, the UNRWA has found rocket caches in one of their facilities.

https://twitter.com/lawhawk/status/491629164584112128

Hamas has become more brazen in where they're storing their weapons, all while their leaders cower in underground bunkers while Gazans who aren't connected with the leadership and don't have the means to protect themselves are taking the brunt of the damage with no where else to go.

It is also indisputable that but for Hamas firing rockets and missiles at Israel incessantly since even the last ceasefire in 2012 (all but one month had missile/mortar or rocket fire) that Israel would not have needed to invade Gaza once again after the latest rounds of barrages that have landed deep inside Israel, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

The FAA may have succeeded in doing what Hamas couldn't do directly. After firing missiles in the direction of Ben Gurion Airport, Delta Airlines and a quick succession of other airlines decided that they didn't want to put their planes in harms' way. The FAA then ordered US airlines to halt flights to and from Israel for 24 hours. Other airlines also followed suit.

The airlines rightfully don’t want to see their gear destroyed by the missiles or rockets, and that’ll be more than enough to keep them away though it is strange that they are not willing to fly into Israel but haven't had issues with flights to/from or over other war zones and conflict regions in recent years, including Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Ukraine (prior to the shoot down of Malaysian Air Flight 17).

The FAA order and its effect on the conflict can play out in one of two ways. It could force Israel to a ceasefire while Israel has not achieved its goals militarily so as to get flights to resume. If the flights remain shut down, it would have the effect of imposing economic harms on Israel (lost tourism/commerce) and indirectly strengthens Hamas’ hand.

However, the concern for Israel's economy is just as likely to move Israel to mount an even larger military campaign into Gaza so as to eliminate the threat to Israel's only international airport and crush Hamas' capabilities once and for all. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu is likely to opt for the latter, knowing that his country needs the influx of tourists to keep the economy going and a prolonged shutdown would have dire consequences. Israeli public opinion isn't going to take this kind of existential threat to their livelihood and country; they're going to press ahead with rooting out Hamas if it means eliminating the threat to Israel's airport.

Until now, the primary justification for the Israeli ground assault has been to root out the tunnels and bunkers Hamas has used to bring weapons into Gaza from Sinai, store the weapons, and to infiltrate into Israel. The missile attacks near Ben Gurion are the kind of justification that Israel could make to continue its fight inside Gaza - to eliminate the threat to Israel's economy and transportation networks that fighting to clear the tunnels from Gaza didn't. It would potentially provide the open-ended invitation for Israel to remain in Gaza, a region Israel unilaterally withdrew from in 2005 as no nation would ever allow its key transit locations to be under constant threat from missiles and bombs.

Meanwhile, the diplomats are trying to formulate yet another cease fire proposal. It's actually a joke at this point. Everyone knows that the ceasefire agreement is going to end up being the same as all the prior deals between Israel and Hamas. Both sides will promise not to fire on the other beginning at X. Once X plus a given period Y has occurred, Israel will promise Z and Hamas will need to reciprocate with A. The ceasefire deals are essentially fill-in-the-blank and you can substitute the times, dates, and in the end, all that is left are the casualties on both sides to be buried and hospitalized.

It's nice that the diplomats and EU members are calling on Hamas and other terror groups in Gaza to be disarmed, but there's no indication of how or who would do what they propose. Hamas seems to have an answer to that question - they’ll keep firing their munitions until they’ve expended their stockpiles. Israel will continue taking that fire until they have forced Hamas to expend all of its weapons.

Gazans will continue to suffer from Hamas actions and Israeli responses and both Israelis and Gazans will mourn their losses and curse Hamas. And that, unfortunately, is the takeaway.

Cross posted at LGF

12 Years Later: Remembering 9/11

September 11, 2001. New Yorkers were heading to the polls to vote on the next mayor of the city. It was a morning full of promise and baseball fans were excited about the Yankees' chances of making the playoffs, the Mets thinking about the future, and the start of the new football season. In other words, it was a day not much different than those September days we've been experiencing in the New York City metro area this year.

While everyone was focused on the day ahead, another group of people were thinking about the mission that would forever alter the skyline of NYC and alter history. Al Qaeda's terrorists were already on board four jets bound for New York and Washington DC and had already overpowered the crews.

I was on a NJ Transit train with my dad when I first noticed something wrong at the WTC out of the corner of my eye; it was smoke coming from the upper reaches of the tower.

It was just around 8:45.

The world changed, and I didn't quite realize it.

People watching the morning news didn't know it either at first. But they would soon be glued to broadcasts that showed the horrors of the worst terror attacks ever perpetrated.

The damage done on that morning was nearly impossible to comprehend. In the mere blink of the eye, nearly 3,000 people were condemned to death and the World Trade Center would soon be reduced to a pile of rubble that would burn for weeks on end. Reports would come in that a third plane had struck and damaged the Pentagon.  But the death rattle of the Twin Towers would continue for just under two hours and victims trapped above the fires had to make the choice to stay and choke on the heat and smoke or jump to a certain death. All too many make that decision to jump. Firefighters on the ground also succumbed before the towers fell - falling debris hitting firefighters and fleeing people alike.

Victim Number One would be there to comfort those who fell. Rev. Mychal Judge of the FDNY was comforting fallen firefighters and office workers alike when he was struck and killed by debris. So many people inside the Department and around the City thought so highly of him that he was honored as the first victim of the attacks - so that he could comfort and aid all those many others who were murdered on that day - to guide them to Heaven.

All too many would unfortunately follow him - and not by their own choice.

Here are remembrances of a few of those killed on 9/11, as written by my friend legalbgl for Project 2,996 (and updated to reflect his additional memorializations for 2011 through 2013):

Lt. Col. Jerry Don Dickerson Jr. (2013).
Mary Lenz Wieman (2012).
Mark Francis Broderick (2011).
Captain Patrick J. Brown (2010).
Hagay Shefi (2009).
Alison Marie Wildman (2008).
Daniel Thomas Afflito (2007).

Coming full circle, on May 1, 2011, the United States finally caught up with Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan. In a daring raid on a compound near Pakistan's military academy, US special forces killed bin Laden and captured a treasure trove of intel.  That's small consolation for the thousands of families and friends who still grieve the senseless murder of their loved ones in New York, Washington DC at the Pentagon, and in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. The profound loss is a heavy burden on all those who were there and on those who lost loved ones. While television crews jockeyed for spots overlooking the Ground Zero site, the death of bin Laden would not bring solace to those who lost loved ones, nor would it bring their loved ones back.

Local commemorations are already underway and will continue through the week throughout the region. And there are those in the area who are still suffering from the medical effects of exposure to the air at Ground Zero.

The federal government created the James Zadroga health and compensation fund because of the ongoing health concerns of those who carried out relief and recovery efforts at Ground Zero. More people are seeking assistance via the program, including those emergency responders who came from across the country to spell the FDNY and NYPD and PAPD in the grim task of recovering the remains of those murdered.

Emergency personnel were at Ground Zero around the clock for weeks on end before officials would claim that the site had officially been cleared of remains. Many of them, plus those living near Ground Zero would later become ill from the effects of breathing in all the dust and debris that was pulverized by the collapsing towers, and it is one of the sadder chapters from 9/11 that we are still burying victims of the attacks to this day, including James Zadroga.

People who risked their lives to save others and to help families who lost loved ones find remains of the victims are themselves victims of the attacks. The Zadroga Act isn't perfect by any means and it has come too late for some, but it's a start to compensate and aid families of responders who are suffering from all manner of ailments  attributed to Ground Zero exposure.

The death toll, which was once feared to be more than we could bear - in the tens of thousands, would eventually drop to around 2,742 at the World Trade Center. However, that count continues rising as more emergency personnel working at Ground Zero succumb to ailments attributed to exposures at Ground Zero. The head of the PBA says that the total number of cops who have died from medical ailments related to the 9/11 attacks is greater than the number who died during the attacks themselves. More than 1,100 people have cancers attributed to exposure at Ground Zero. Over 65,000 are registered with the WTC Registry. Some of their names will eventually be added to the roll of those killed in the attacks.

Construction at the site now dominates discussion, though there are unsettling discoveries made from time to time. Workers at the site of the proposed Park 51 / Cordoba House Islamic Center found part of the landing gear of one of the planes wedged between the building and an adjacent one.

The past 10 years have been a near constant reminder of the profound sense of absence. 1WTC (aka the Freedom Tower) has finally recaptured part of the skyline. 1WTC is still under construction but the antenna and external structures are complete. The base and interior work continues.

Construction of the Transit Hub is also underway, and Santiago Calatrava's design now peeks out above ground as well.

The WTC Transit Hub from Greenwich Street at Vesey

Looking down Greenwich St at the WTC Transit Hub and 3 and 4 WTC

4WTC exterior finished; the building needs interior work, but is in its final form.

2 and 3 WTC are only being built as a stub capable of being completed to their originally designed heights. Unless Larry Silverstein receives commitments to lease space, they will remain as stub buildings that provide retail commercial space for the foreseeable future. 4WTC will be opened to business in November. It's likely that work will restart later this year on 3WTC as there have been rumblings of a deal in the works for leases of significant amounts of space in the tower with GroupM. The 1WTC Observatory will take longer to open,  but Conde Nast will be moving into its offices in 1WTC in 2014 and retail spaces in 3 and 4 WTC will be opening in the coming year courtesy of Silverstein and Westfield Properties.

Fiterman Hall

Meanwhile, Fiterman Hall has now been opened for a full year as students from the Borough of Manhattan Community College have been able to use the facility for classes.

While the National 9/11 Memorial opened in time for the 10th anniversary, the National 9/11 Museum at the World Trade Center had been delayed due to an ongoing battle over who is responsible for certain costs. The museum foundation and the Port Authority had fought over hundreds of millions in costs, and the resulting delay meant that the earliest it would open is early 2014.

The delays were made worse as a result of the damage done by Hurricane Sandy. That included flooding of the museum facilities that are under the podium containing the memorial. It turns out that the battle over costs between the memorial foundation and the Port Authority was a blessing in disguise. It meant that facilities weren't finished out and artifacts weren't in place when lower Manhattan was flooded by Sandy. It also means that the facilities will have to address protecting the artifacts from future storms.

Then, there's the cost to operate the museum when it eventually opens in conjunction with the memorial. The WTC Memorial Foundation estimates it will cost $60 million a year to operate the memorial and museum, which is far out of line from other memorials operated by the National Park Service. It makes tremendous sense and it is logical for the 9/11 museum and memorial to be operated by the NPS instead of the private foundation because of cost containment and the ability to manage the myriad details that come along with such a sensitive site and one of national and international importance.

Millions of people have already paid their respects and visited the 9/11 memorial, and the site has fast become a touchstone for those visiting the city. Tourists from around the country and the world flock to the area to see the new construction and to visit the memorial.

One of the stumbling blocks continues to be whether the museum will charge a fee for entry. I've long argued against any kind of entry fee as well as stripping the memorial foundation of the authority to run the facility and instead put the NPS in charge. The NPS does a tremendous job managing sites around the nation, and the memorial and museum should come under the NPS umbrella. However, without Congressional action, the situation will remain in flux and we should expect to see entry fees imposed on those visiting the site (we already see the foundation making "mandatory" suggested donations for access to the memorial). I wouldn't be surprised if the entry fee runs $20 or more. As more than 4 million visit annually, that would mean $80 million in revenues towards operations.

The Port Authority, which owns the entire site, had been building the infrastructure necessary for other components of the site, including the Vehicle Security Center, the PATH transit hub, and the museum. All three are seriously over budget and are years behind schedule. The PATH Transit hub was among the worst offenders. It was supposed to have been completed in 2009 for $2.2 billion, and yet the earliest it may be finished is 2016 at a cost of more than $4 billion.

When one looks at the recently enacted toll and fare hikes, the cost overrun for PATH turns out to be nearly the entire amount of revenue expected to be raised from the hikes. That's inexcusable; the overruns on the transit hub sap the Port Authority's ability to handle other critical infrastructure projects around the region, and commuters to Lower Manhattan and businesses that want to consider Lower Manhattan have to take into account that the World Trade Center area is still one vast construction site.

When one realizes that the Port Authority gave up the trademark rights to the World Trade Center and WTC to a foundation started by a former employee of the agency for $10, you can begin to understand how poorly the authority had handled its assets over the years. A new report by the Bergen Record found that the Port Authority has no record of this deal being done, which makes this whole situation even more bizarre. After all, it's a former head of the agency involved - Guy Tozzoli.  It's why I don't think the agency has managed its assets well, nor handled the rebuilding in a cost-effective and efficient manner.

The Port Authority said Monday that it had no record of its governing board approving a 1986 deal that handed over ownership of the World Trade Center name for $10. And the agency’s top executive at the time said he didn’t recall it ever coming across his desk.

That added to the mystery surrounding how the Port Authority came to sell the vaunted name of its Manhattan landmark to a group run by a retiring agency executive who made millions in the years that followed.

The Christie administration, which jointly steers the agency with New York’s governor, slammed the deal on Monday, in response to a story in The Record a day earlier.

“You can be sure that would never happen under this administration,” Christie spokesman Michael Drewniak said. “I’d venture to say that if something like that was done today, it would probably draw the attention of the United States Attorney’s Office.”

The Port Authority essentially handed over one of its most valuable assets to a former executive who has made a ton of coin over the deal, and has even cost the agency money to continue using the name. Had the agency retained the rights to the name and licensed the name to other entities as the WTCA has done, the Port Authority would have had millions of dollars of revenue that it could have used to fund ongoing operations and projects.

Meanwhile, nearby transit projects are slowly inching towards completion, including the Fulton Transit Center a block east of Ground Zero. That project, run by the MTA, is similarly over budget and late. However, it's far closer to completion than the PATH hub. When finished, the Fulton Center would link with the PATH transit hub by the Dey Street connector, and ultimately those working at the World Financial Center would be able to access Fulton Center without having to travel outside. It's likely to be opened in time for when 4WTC is opened for business later this year.

The skyline will never be the same. Neither will our hearts, which are heavy with the loss and supreme sacrifices made on 9/11 by the rescue personnel who bravely rushed up the towers even as people were racing to get out of the towers or gasping as people were forced to jump to their deaths to avoid being burned alive in the fires that racked the towers.

We remember.

Tribute in Light

Looking up at 1WTC and 7WTC.

More photos of Ground Zero and the rebuilding at the World Trade Center, as taken from 4WTC, which is scheduled to open next year.

The WTC as seen from Hoboken.

For my prior year recollections and postings, see September 11, 2012, 10 Years Later,  September 11, 2010, September 11, 2009,  September 11, 2008, September 11, 2007, September 11, 2006, and September 11, 2005.

What Does Fatah Think It Gains From Renewed Violence?

Fatah's Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade terrorists in Gaza fired rockets into Israel in solidarity with protesters who have been raging against Israel after a Palestinian man died in Israeli custody. Palestinians claim he was tortured and killed, which Israel denies.

The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, which says it is affiliated with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party, took responsibility for the attack. The rocket fell on a road in southern Israel. No injuries were reported, according to Israeli Defense Forces radio.

Days of clashes between dozens of Palestinian stone-throwers and Israeli soldiers have taken place since the death of Arafat Jaradat, a 30-year-old Palestinian man who died under unclear circumstances while in Israeli police custody.

Palestinian officials insist Jaradat was tortured to death during an interrogation. An Israeli autopsy conducted in the presence of a Palestinian physician showed bruises and a couple of broken ribs which, Israel says, could have occurred during resuscitation efforts.

Tensions were already high after several Palestinian demonstrations demanding the release of more than 4,000 prisoners held in Israeli prisons for everything from stone-throwing to terror attacks.

It's a flashpoint that Fatah thinks can it can exploit as President Obama is scheduled to come to Israel next month.

It makes no sense though.

The Palestinian Authority and Fatah have a level of autonomy that comes from an uneasy status quo where Fatah controls much of the West Bank with civil administrative control and regions are off limits to Israelis. All this was set forth in the Oslo Accords and follow on agreements.

Palestinians refused to even consider peace deals that included land swaps the two times that Israel proffered a comprehensive deal. In fact, in both instances the Palestinian response was more violence, not a counter proposal upon which further negotiations could occur.

Perhaps Fatah thinks that they need to remind Palestinians that they can resort to violence just as surely as Hamas has done since 2005. Yet, the end result of the violence would be further security clampdowns on Palestinian mobility through the West Bank and crossing points into Israel. That serves no one, least of all Palestinian businesses. The violence only ratchets up the tensions.

Perhaps Fatah's Mahmoud Abbas thinks that the violence will lead President Obama to come forth with a proposal that would impose a peace deal, but that's not going to happen. The US has already signaled that the President isn't coming with a peace proposal in hand, but instead is coming to hear what both sides have to say about the matter.

Or, perhaps Abbas thinks that they need this violence so as to engage in a rapproachment with Hamas, but I don't think Abbas is so cynical as to believe that that's possible given how Abbas and Fatah have generally worked out a coexistence with Israel on civil administrative and security matters that allows many in the West Bank to attend to the business of business. Hamas considers Fatah to be sell-outs of Palestinian freedom by merely accepting Israel's existence.

Reflexively, Palestinian leaders revert to violence when the needs suit them because they simply haven't accepted that a peace deal could be reached after all the promises that they've given Palestinians for generations that they would wipe Israel from the map and/or overwhelm them demographically with a right of return.

For its part, Israel has no reason to inflame tensions or ratchet up the violence. There's enough instability on Israel's borders to keep its security officials up at night. With the Syrian civil war raging and the situation in Egypt uncertain while the porous Sinai border with Gaza allowing an ongoing influx of weapons and material to Hamas, Israel's neighbors are all dealing with internal issues (though Assad and others may try to cause conflict with Israel so as to deflect attention from their own problems).

The US policy has been that a peace deal will come only when both Israelis and Palestinians sit down and hash out a deal. That's the right strategy as an imposed deal will not carry as much weight as one that the two sides manage to hash out. I'm quite pessimistic that any such deal could be worked out when Hamas still refuses to accept Israel's existence and that they view ceasefires as a hudna in which they're able to regroup and rearm for the next armed phase of their conflict with Israel.

In other words, Israel faces not a united Palestinian front, but one that for all intents and purposes has created three "states" - Israel, Fatah-controlled West Bank, and Hamas-controlled Gaza. A 3-state solution reflects the situation on the ground, but isn't a sustainable concept diplomatically when Hamas and Fatah are both nominally representing the Palestinian people. The 2-state solution is on life support, but it's been that way ever since the Palestinian civil war split control of Gaza and the West Bank between Fatah and Hamas, not because Israel wants to see an end to the dialogue.

Thus, the latest outbreak of violence will end as it usually does - lots more people injured, property damage, inflamed passions, and neither side budging on core issues.

Mission Accomplished: Mystery Anti-Muslim Film Sows Violence Around World

If the intent of whoever was behind the mystery film was to disrupt US diplomatic missions around the world, mission accomplished.

The overdubbed video clips have taken on a life of their own and it's no longer about the video, but anger directed at the US for no reason other than it's the in-thing to do in places like Tunisia and Egypt. At a time when the economic conditions in those countries isn't improving after regime change, protesting against the US (and throw in the anti-Israel sentiments expressed in some) is a safe way to divert attention away from the inability to improve the economic conditions as fast as everyone wants.

Blaming the US is better than trying to create jobs in those countries. Claiming that the US engaged in blasphemy or somehow supports blasphemy is easier than trying to understand that free speech is a universal right and includes the right to say things that other groups might not like or want to hear or see, but it doesn't give anyone the right to blow stuff up or riot and destroy property. Free exercise of religion means not imposing your religious views on others, or other nations for that matter.

Those behind the film are agent provocateurs who sought to sow discord and create conflict. They achieved those goals, and now the US and those regimes in the Middle East and elsewhere these protests/riots are going on have to deal with the fallout.

One has to also wonder who benefits from the repercussions of these protests/riots/attacks. Iran definitely comes to mind, as do the regimes that replaced longstanding brutal regimes that did not tolerate dissent. This is something that has to be explored at greater depth.

Riots and protests are spreading to other countries, and the list now includes Tunisia, Lebanon (which happens to be where Pope Benedict is visiting on a diplomatic trip), Yemen, Bangladesh, and the German embassy in Khartoum Sudan has been torched. Jordan has also seen protests. Here's a map showing where those protests are underway.

But you know who hasn't seen the film or the clips - most of those protesting. It's a ginned up controversy and the film's creators/backers are still not fully known. And what's known about those involved thus far indicate that the producer was a convicted criminal and a shady character - a grifter being a most charitable term, while the director was incompetent and may not have known the plot/dialogue and the actors didn't know what they were doing or that the film was overdubbed afterwards to completely change the meaning and context of the scenes.

This situation smells, make that reeks, of the trajectory followed in the cartoon jihad that cost more than 100 lives across the world and resulted in embassies of several countries being attacked.

Once again, we have an obscure publication that gets picked up and within days is turned into a rallying cry for rioting and protests by Islamist leaders decrying the blasphemous acts and portrayals - urging death to those involved. Instead of the targets being embassies of the Danes, the nation of the Jyllands Posten, which published the cartoons originally, it's US diplomatic facilities are being targeted (and also Germany). In some instances, it appears that local governments are backing protests, while others - as in Libya - the government is actively trying to block the attacks/protests.

It may also be useful to try and distinguish between the terror attack that killed Ambassador Stevens and three other Americans in Libya and the protests/riots in Egypt and elsewhere. The attack in Libya appears to have been a preplanned attack to coincide with 9/11, while the protests elsewhere appear to be more closely related to the outrage over the mystery film. The film outrage may have spurred protests in Libya as well that were exploited by the attackers, but the scenario has blurred together into one mess that will take quite some time to sort out.

Protests Continue Against Mystery Film; US Embassies On Alert

Protests continue in Egypt and now in Yemen against US embassies over the mysterious anti-Muslim film that set the actions of the past few days, including deadly attacks against the US mission in Libya that ended in the death of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans, plus another 30 injuries to both American and Libyans.

The ambassador, J. Christopher Stevens, was missing almost immediately after the start of an intense, four-hour firefight for control of the mission, and his body was not located until Wednesday morning at dawn, when he was found dead at a Benghazi hospital, American and Libyan officials said. It was the first time since 1979 that an American ambassador had died in a violent assault.

American and European officials said that while many details about the attack remained unclear, the assailants seemed organized, well trained and heavily armed, and they appeared to have at least some level of advance planning. But the officials cautioned that it was too soon to tell whether the attack was related to the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Fighters involved in the assault, which was spearheaded by a Islamist brigade formed during last year’s uprising against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, said in interviews during the battle that they were moved to attack the mission by anger over a 14-minute, American-made video that depicted the Prophet Muhammad, Islam’s founder, as a villainous, homosexual and child-molesting buffoon. Their attack followed by just a few hours the storming of the compound surrounding the United States Embassy in Cairo by an unarmed mob protesting the same video. On Wednesday, new crowds of protesters gathered outside the United States Embassies in Tunis and Cairo.

The wave of unrest set off by the video, posted online in the United States two months ago and dubbed into Arabic for the first time eight days ago, has further underscored the instability of the countries that cast off their longtime dictators in the Arab Spring revolts. It also cast doubt on the adequacy of security preparations at American diplomatic outposts in the volatile region.

Libya says that they've arrested several people in connection with the attacks, and the US has sent a Marine FAST team to Libya. The US has also sent two warships (one already on station) and a drone unit to gather intel and to go after those responsible.

The million dollar question remains who was behind the film, what were their goals and aims, and how exactly an obscure film (which is really just a bunch of badly overdubbed film clips) that appears to have been uploaded in July, saw less than a few thousand hits since, exploded into the nexus of an international conflagration of attacks against US embassies in concert with 9/11. It appears that the film was overdubbed with anti-Muslim sentiments only eight days ago. Even then, it received little attention.

I don't believe in coincidences. Nor do I believe what anyone involved the movie has had to say thus far - because much of what they've said can't be confirmed by anyone. Sam Bacile doesn't appear to have existed except as a pseudonym/agent provocateur and a guy who had apparently come forward to claim that he was Bacile has recanted. Morris Sedak is an agitator whose motives are to foment war back in Egypt. Steve Klein has ties to extremist groups, but his involvement is only tangential to the overall story. The references to Jewish donors/backers/Israel is a misdirection play to try and bring the usual assortment of anti Jewish and anti-Israel sentiment to a head and to inflame passions even further.

Is it possible that AQ or another terror group took advantage of the protests in Egypt to use similar protests in Libya to carry out the deadly attacks there? Possibly, and the US government is looking at that possibility quite seriously.

The situation in Egypt also appears to have taken on a life of its own, and there are reports of protests elsewhere, including Yemen. This isn't necessarily by coincidence either. Whoever spread the anti-Muslim overdubbed versions basically did their own Hitler's Downfall-style routine to rant against Islam. We need to know who was behind the overdub, and at the same time, do more to track down who was responsible for the Libya attack and provide increased protection to our other embassies and consulates.

The US has got debunk the nonsense online that rabble rousers and militant mullahs are spreading to those who are now protesting/rioting - mostly without even seeing the film clips at issue or knowing; that's what many of the Administration and embassy statements refer to - protecting rights of free speech and freedom of religion, but that the two have to coexist without engaging in violence. It's not easy since the mindset of those who would protest and engage in violence are primed to act, and it confirms the biases of both those militant Islamists and socons who think Islam is an enemy of civilization. Extremists on both sides are exploiting the situation to their own ends, and one has to wonder who benefits from this.

That's why I keep going back to Iran. Iran has the means and stands to benefit from sowing violence and discord across the region - to tie up US and rival interests while Iran continues on its aggressive path.

As far as its impact on the US presidential election, the response from GOPer Mitt Romney and his supporters seems to be that the Obama Administration policy resulted in creating the environment allowing the attacks, the foreign policy amounts to apologia, and the response was inattentive and scattershot. Still, the main difference between Romney's policies and those of the Administration are one of tone, since Obama has largely carried over Bush Administration policies, including on dealing with international terrorism, going after those responsible for attacks on US interests around the world, and

Fallout Continues From Attacks On US Embassies in Egypt; Libya and Death of Ambassador Stevens

The attacks against the US Embassy in Cairo and the US consulate in Bengazi Libya continue to resonate against the backdrop of domestic election politics in the US and the Obama Administration has to deal with the ongoing crisis that appears to be spreading to other countries as a result of protests against a film of bizarre provenance. Protests and riots are being reported in Tunisia as well against the publication of a film depicting Mohammad in derogatory fashion.

The origins of the film are still rather cryptic. Sam Bacile appears to have been involved in the film, and it was financed/promoted by one Morris Sedak and later promoted by pastor Terry Jones. Bacile's background will get scrutinized, but there's quite a few inconsistencies:

The bottom line is that we know very little about Sam Bacile, the man who produced the film. But The Wall Street Journal caught up with Bacile before he went into hiding.

According to the Journal, Bacile raised "$5 million from 100 Jewish donors" and he produced the film using 60 actors and 45 crew members.

Bacile told the Journal that he made the film to expose "Islam as a hateful religion."

"Islam is a cancer," he told the paper. "The movie is a political movie. It's not a religious movie."

In another interview, Bacile told the Associated Press that he was a real estate developer and an Israeli Jew, but Israeli authorities told the wire service they have no records of him being a citizen.

Our library did not turn up any footprint for Bacile. They found no property, phone, licenses nor court records. And Bacile had not made news until today.

The term agent provocateur seems to be the best description. The video footage is amateurish and there's no indication that Bacile has any connection to the film industry whatsoever. There's no reference to him in imdb.com and we have only what he's said about his background to go on.

While the protesters in Egypt overran the embassy and briefly hoisted a protest flag, the situation in Libya may have been cover for a sophisticated terror operation against the embassy. The protests against the film there were a pretext for the attack.

Officials in Washington studying the events of the past 24 hours have focused on the differences between the protests on the American embassy in Cairo and the attack on the consulate in Benghazi, the Libyan city where Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and the other Americans were killed.

The protesters in Cairo appeared to be a genuinely spontaneous unarmed mob angered by an anti-Islam video produced in the United States. By contrast, it appeared the attackers in Benghazi were armed with mortars and rocket-propelled grenades. Intelligence reports are inconclusive at this point, officials said, but indications suggest the possibility that an organized group had either been waiting for an opportunity to exploit like the protests over the video or perhaps even generated the protests as a cover for their attack.

President Obama strongly condemned the killings and ordered increased security at American diplomatic posts around the world. American defense officials said 50 Marines were en route to Libya to strengthen security at United States diplomatic facilities, and the State Department ordered all “nonemergency” personnel out of the country and warned Americans not to go there, suggesting that further attacks were possible.

The death of Mr. Stevens was the first of an American envoy abroad in more than two decades.

“These four Americans stood up for freedom and human dignity,” Mr. Obama said in a televised statement from the White House Rose Garden, where he stood with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. “Make no mistake: we will work with the Libyan government to bring to justice the killers who attacked our people.”

Mr. Obama also offered praise for the Libyan government, noting that Libyan security forces fought back against the mob, helped protect American diplomats and took Mr. Stevens’s body to the hospital. “This attack will not break the bonds between the United States and Libya,” he said.

Libyan security forces were attempting to defend the US embassy but were overrun by the attacking terrorists. Secretary of State Clinton made clear that the attack was not by the Libyan government or the people but a small group determined to break US resolve in the region.

The mission that drew Chris and Sean and their colleagues to Libya is both noble and necessary, and we and the people of Libya honor their memory by carrying it forward. This is not easy. Today, many Americans are asking – indeed, I asked myself – how could this happen? How could this happen in a country we helped liberate, in a city we helped save from destruction? This question reflects just how complicated and, at times, how confounding the world can be.

But we must be clear-eyed, even in our grief. This was an attack by a small and savage group – not the people or Government of Libya. Everywhere Chris and his team went in Libya, in a country scarred by war and tyranny, they were hailed as friends and partners. And when the attack came yesterday, Libyans stood and fought to defend our post. Some were wounded. Libyans carried Chris’ body to the hospital, and they helped rescue and lead other Americans to safety. And last night, when I spoke with the President of Libya, he strongly condemned the violence and pledged every effort to protect our people and pursue those responsible.

The friendship between our countries, borne out of shared struggle, will not be another casualty of this attack. A free and stable Libya is still in America’s interest and security, and we will not turn our back on that, nor will we rest until those responsible for these attacks are found and brought to justice. We are working closely with the Libyan authorities to move swiftly and surely. We are also working with partners around the world to safeguard other American embassies, consulates, and citizens.

There will be more time later to reflect, but today, we have work to do. There is no higher priority than protecting our men and women wherever they serve. We are working to determine the precise motivations and methods of those who carried out this assault. Some have sought to justify this vicious behavior, along with the protest that took place at our Embassy in Cairo yesterday, as a response to inflammatory material posted on the internet. America’s commitment to religious tolerance goes back to the very beginning of our nation. But let me be clear – there is no justification for this, none. Violence like this is no way to honor religion or faith. And as long as there are those who would take innocent life in the name of God, the world will never know a true and lasting peace.

Meanwhile, the New York Times is reporting that the Israeli Foreign Ministry issued a statement about the unspeakable idiot who produced the film that sparked the protests, riots, and which may have been used as cover for a terror attack that killed the US Ambassador to Libya. The NY Times reports:

Yigal Palmor, the spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry, said in a telephoned statement: “Nobody knows who he is. He is totally unknown in filmmaking circles in Israel. And anything he did — he is not doing it for Israel, or with Israel, or through Israel in any way.” Mr. Palmor also called the filmmaker “a complete loose cannon and an unspeakable idiot.”

Israel has further said that there's no evidence that Bacile is Israeli, and that he was acting on his own. At the same time Bacile was contacted from an undisclosed location and claims that the deaths of the Ambassador could be attributed the perpetrators and to lax security at the embassy and not his own actions. Really? That's what he's going to go with?

UPDATE:
The Atlantic sheds more light, and it appears that Bacile is a misdirection play.

UPDATE:
"Bacile" also claimed to be a California real estate developer, but there's no record of that either. He's not listed in any directories or incorporations or real estate deeds and is not licensed in California as a real estate broker.

There's also more information about another player in this, Morris Sedak. He is apparently the head of the National Coptic Assembly in the United States. He has no room for tolerance or coexistence with Muslims. He sees Egypt as being occupied by Muslims, and has used his position to shape Coptic Christian positions in Egypt and abroad.

Coptic Christians living abroad, many of whom are instrumental in developing public opinion, want little or nothing to do with inclusion and tolerance. Leading that charge are figures like Morris Sadek, the head of the National Coptic Assembly in the United States. He has on a number of occasions argued that Egypt is the national homeland of Copts and Muslims – the vast majority in the country – are an “occupying force.” It’s not difficult to see where mistrust can be manifested.

Likewise, there are radical conservative Muslim leaders, spouting nonsense against their Christian sisters and brothers from the pulpit. They tell their congregations of the threat the “infidel” has upon Islamic society in Egypt. No wonder Muslims have little desire to know and understand their Christian counterparts.

Despite that, Sedak sees himself as a human rights advocate, and while there have been numerous instances of Copts being persecuted, his solution doesn't appear to be any better. At the same time, Sedak's Egyptian citizenship was revoked last year by the Egyptian courts, claiming that he called for war against Egypt.

Then, there's a self-described consultant to the film, Steve Klein, who, according to the SPLC, has trained paramilitary militias and far right groups, including the Church of Kaweah.

Klein is a Marine veteran who served in the Vietnam War and is based in Hemet, Calif. He believes that his state is riddled with Muslim Brotherhood sleeper cells “who are awaiting the trigger date and will begin randomly killing as many of us as they can,” according to an article in the Spring 2012 issue of the SPLC Intelligence Report.

Over the years, Klein has worked with a variety of far-right groups, including the Church at Kaweah, which the SPLC lists as a hate group. The Church of Kaweah is a secretive cohort of militant Christian fundamentalists in California who are preparing for war and who believe that churches should avoid government regulation and answer only to God. Kaweah has its own militia, headed by David “Dutch” Johnson (aka Dutch Joens), a longtime antigovernment veteran of the militia movement. Johnson looks forward to the battle that will begin when “Dictator Obongo” institutes martial law. He has called Mexicans savages “who can’t run their own government” and recommended sending guns to drug cartels to “decrease the excess population in Mexico so they don’t come north.”

Assassin Attacks Parti Quebecois Midnight Rally; 1 Killed In Assassination Attempt

A masked gunman opened fire at a political rally for Parti Quebecois in Quebec last night, and murdered one person, injured another, and some reports indicate that the ultimate target was the newly elected premier.

A masked gunman opened fire during a midnight victory rally for Quebec's new premier, killing one person and wounding another. The new premier, Pauline Marois of the separatist Parti Quebecois, was whisked off the stage by guards while giving her speech and uninjured.

It was not clear if the gunman was trying to shoot Marois, whose party favors separation for the French-speaking province from Canada. Police identified the gunman only as a 62-year-old man, and were still questioning him Wednesday morning.

Montreal police Cmdr. Ian Lafreniere said the gunman opened fire in the back of the hall while Marois was giving her victory speech to hundreds of supporters at the Metropolis auditorium. She had just declared her firm conviction that Quebec needs to be a sovereign country before she was pulled off the stage.

"What's going on?" Marois told her security detail as they grabbed her arms and took her off the stage during the celebration of her party's victory in Tuesday's provincial election.

The gunman then fled outside where he set a small fire before he was captured, police said.

The gunman was wearing a robe and mask while armed with a rifle. By shouting "the English are waking up", it appears that the attack was politically motivated, and it would further appear that this was an assassination attempt against Marois.

As police dragged the man to a cruiser, he shouted in French: "The English are waking up!" CNN affiliate CBC reported. The suspect appeared to be wearing a bathrobe or housecoat.

Marois' party, Parti Quebecois, wants the French-speaking province to secede from Canada and become its own country. Marois, who will become the province's first female premier, and her party defeated the incumbent Liberal party.

Montreal police Commander Ian Lafreniere confirmed Marois was the target of the gunman, a 62-year-old man whose identity has not yet been released by authorities.

According to Lafreniere, the assailant had two guns with him during the attack at the Metropolis concert venue.

Marois and her party have long been associated with a movement for Quebec to declare its independence from Canada. Also, Marois' party has received threatening phone calls.

More Details Emerge About Anarchist Plot At Fort Stewart

New details have emerged about that Fort Stewart terror plot involving anarchists. It turns out that one of the four soldiers was a suspect in his wife's death before he went and murdered two other people who were "loose ends" that needed to be taken care of before they could carry out their wider plots - to capture an ammo dump, commit mass murder, and assassinate the president.

Isaac Aguigui funded the anarchist militia FEAR, or Forever Enduring Always Ready, with up to $500,000 in life insurance benefits he collected after his wife's death in July 2011, prosecutors said.

Aguigui and three other soldiers stationed at Fort Stewart in southeastern Georgia near Savannah have since been charged with murder and other offenses stemming from the December 5, 2011, shooting deaths of a former soldier and his teenage girlfriend.

Aguigui, 21, and two others were scheduled to appear in court in Long County, Georgia, for a hearing on Thursday. A third co-defendant reached a plea deal with prosecutors on Monday.

The accused militia members had plotted to assassinate President Barack Obama and to attack their Army base and a dam in Aguigui's home state of Washington, Assistant County District Attorney Isabel Pauley said during those proceedings.

They also discussed poisoning the apple crop in Washington state and had purchased $87,000 worth of weapons to carry out their planned attacks, she said.

Prosecutors said the group crossed the line from conspiracy to actual violence when they killed Michael Roark, 19, and Tiffany York, 17, whose bodies were found in a wooded area near the base, in a bid to keep them from exposing the militia.

One of the four charged has already rolled on the other three - taking a plea deal for voluntary manslaughter and avoiding the death penalty as long as he continues cooperating.

4 US Soldiers Charged In Terror Plot

Four US soldiers have been arrested on multiple charges in Georgia. Prosecutors also believe that the group was ultimately intending on assassinating the President. They were in the process of building up a weapons stockpile from which they could launch a myriad number of attacks:

Four Army soldiers based in southeast Georgia killed a former comrade and his girlfriend to protect an anarchist militia group they formed that stockpiled assault weapons and plotted a range of anti-government attacks, prosecutors told a judge Monday.

Prosecutors in rural Long County, near the sprawling Army post Fort Stewart, said the militia group composed of active duty and former U.S. military members spent at least $87,000 buying guns and bomb components and was serious enough to kill two people - former soldier Michael Roark and his 17-year-old girlfriend, Tiffany York - by shooting them in the woods last December in order to keep its plans secret.

"This domestic terrorist organization did not simply plan and talk," prosecutor Isabel Pauley told a Superior Court judge. "Prior to the murders in this case, the group took action. Evidence shows the group possessed the knowledge, means and motive to carry out their plans."

(snip)

The prosecutor said the militia group had big plans. It plotted to take over Fort Stewart by seizing its ammunition control point and talked of bombing the Forsyth Park fountain in nearby Savannah, she said. In Washington state, she added, the group plotted to bomb a dam and poison the state's apple crop. Ultimately, prosecutors said, the militia's goal was to overthrow the government and assassinate the president.

The Army brought charges against the four accused soldiers in connection with the slayings of Roark and York in March, but has yet to act on them. Fort Stewart spokesman Kevin Larson said he could not comment immediately on the militia accusations that emerged in civilian court Monday.

The group called itself FEAR: short for Forever Enduring Always Ready. The two murders were to eliminate a "loose end". The group recruited disillusioned soldiers or those who were in trouble. No word on the numbers in total recruited. They appear to be anarchist in nature, as members had anarchy-related tattoos.

While the four are in Army custody on the murder charges, these charges are going forward by the local prosecutors' office. Prosecutors note that the group went beyond mere planning or talking - they were already acting upon their plans and were stockpiling weapons and murdered two people to hide their intentions.

Convicted: Norwegian Massacre Suspect Found Sane and Sentenced to 21 Years In Prison

Anders Breivik, the far right terrorist who murdered 77 people in the course of bombing government offices in Oslo and then shooting dozens of teenagers at a youth retreat, was found sane and sentenced to 21 years in prison. Under Norwegian law, that is the maximum sentence, but he can be incarcerated beyond that in seven year increments if he's deemed to be a threat. It's akin to the 20 to life sentences that are routinely issued in the US; parole can be denied by parole boards. In Norway, the convict can be further incarcerated if the convict is deemed a threat to society. I have no doubt that in 21 years time, the court will still find him a threat. Breivik has shown no remorse for his actions and isn't likely to ever show remorse. His manifesto indicated his intentions to commit mass murder, and he would likely try again if ever given the opportunity to do so.

He didn't exactly go quietly. At first he attempted to make a statement before the court that he didn't accept the court's legitimacy, made a Nazi salute, and was admonished by the court for that. Indeed, he said that he wished he could have killed more.


He then said that he wouldn't contest the sentence, because that would legitimize the court.

The New York Times further reports:

Mr. Breivik, 33, who had insisted that he was sane when he carried out the attacks last year as part of what he called a campaign against multiculturalism in Norway, smiled when the verdict was announced. As he arrived in court on Friday, wearing a dark suit and tie, he raised his right arm in a right-wing salute, his fist clenched.

His 10-week trial ended in June. Defense lawyers had sought a prison sentence, arguing that Mr. Breivik was sane when he bombed buildings in downtown Oslo, killing eight people, and then headed to Utoya Island, where he shot dead 69 people at a summer youth camp run by the Labour Party. Prosecutors said that he was mentally ill, was not criminally responsible and should be hospitalized instead. It was not immediately clear whether prosecutors planned an appeal.

Experts said they were not aware of any previous case in Norwegian legal history in which prosecutors had called for an insanity verdict and defense lawyers had advocated conviction.

Judge Wenche Elizabeth Arntzen said on Friday that the decision reached by the five-member panel hearing the case had been unanimous. Reading from a 90-page judgment, she rejected Mr. Breivik’s assertion that he acted as part of a network called the Knights Templar, saying there was no evidence to prove its existence. Mr. Breivik has said he was present when it was founded in London in 2002.

Labour Party supporters in court on Friday hugged as the verdict was announced. Mr. Breivik is to be incarcerated in isolation at Ila prison on the outskirts of Oslo, news reports said, in a three-room cell with an exercise area, a television set and a laptop computer that is not connected to the Internet.

Two Louisiana Sheriffs Assassinated By Anti-Government Group Members

This is a consequence of anti-government militias operating across the nation with unfettered access to firearms. Two Louisiana sheriff deputies assassinated and two others were injured outside New Orleans. Five people are now in custody in relation to the actions:

A gunman shot and wounded a St. John Parish deputy while he was directing traffic at about 5 a.m. CDT in an off-site parking lot for the Valero Energy Corp.'s St. Charles refinery, St. John Parish Sheriff Mike Tregre said.

The gunman fled, and officers investigating the incident ended up at a trailer park in LaPlace, about 25 miles west of New Orleans. As they were interviewing two suspects, someone came out of a trailer with an assault weapon and shot dead the two officers, Tregre said.

"Two of my officers were ambushed, I want to say assassinated," he said during a press conference on Thursday afternoon.

Police have not said how the fourth officer involved was wounded.

The slain deputies were identified as Brandon Nielsen, 34, and Jeremy Triche, 27. The wounded deputies were identified as Scott Boyington and Jason Triche. The Triches are related, but Tregre could not say how.

Tregre said the wounded officers remain hospitalized and described the condition of one as "improving." He gave no details of their injuries.

More recent reports indicate that seven people are now in custody and have been indicted in relation to the shootings.

And who are the people arrested? It appears that at least one is involved in the anti-government group Posse Comitatus. Five have been under surveillance by law enforcement for making terroristic threats.

Authorities believe that suspect, Kyle Joekel, 29, may have ties to anti-government groups, in particular a loose organization known as Posse Comitatus that generally doesn't recognize authority above the level of county sheriff. The name of the group means "power of the county" in Latin, according to the Anti-Defamation League's website.

Group members refuse to recognize various aspects of federal authority, and some refuse to pay taxes. The group has been associated with citizen militias as well as neo-Nazi organizations.

Lt. Robert Davidson of the DeSoto Parish Sheriff's office told The Shreveport Times that the suspects in custody include Kyle Joekel, Brian Smith, Terry Smith, 44, and Derrick Smith, 22. Terry Smith is the father of both Derrick and Brian Smith, according to Davidson, who identified. Brian Smith and Joekel as the shooters in the incident. Davidson said he did not know the name of the other suspects.

Authorities this morning confirmed the four suspects named by Davidson, plus two women: Chanel Skains, 37, and Teniecha Bright, 21.

Joekel had had run-ins with the law in Gage County, Neb., and Marshall County, Kan., last year and was considered a fugitive in both places.

My thoughts and prayers go out to the officers and their families and friends. They were targeted by anti-government militia-types who do not consider the government to be legitimate. They lost their lives while serving and protecting others from the likes of these groups.

Is Assad's Regime On Verge of Collapsing?

According to the recently defected former Prime Minister Riyad Hijab, Bashar al-Assad's regime controls no more than 30% of the country and it's on the verge of collapsing.

“Based on my experience and my position, the regime is falling apart morally, materially, economically,” the former official, Riyad Farid Hijab, said at a news conference in Amman, Jordan. “Its military is rusting, and it only controls 30 percent of Syria’s territory.”

He added that many high-level civilian and military officials in Syria — “leaders with dignity” — were waiting to defect. Mr. Hijab said he fled the Syrian capital, Damascus, because the government threatened his family and had no reasonable means to end the violence. He also urged the opposition to unify and to move ahead with plans for a transitional government and “a civilian democratic state that preserves the right, justice and dignity of all Syrians.”

But he said he had no interest in a formal position. “I have sacrificed myself in the campaign of righteousness,” he said. “I don’t want to satisfy anyone but God.”

Mr. Hijab’s claims about the weakness of the Assad government could not be independently verified, and he gave few details to support his harsh assessment. A Sunni technocrat from the eastern city of Deir al-Zour — which has been enduring shelling and fighting for weeks — Mr. Hijab was not a member of Mr. Assad’s inner circle, and he was appointed to the position of prime minister only in June.

There's no way to know for sure just how secure Assad's regime is, but there have been indications that Assad's lost control of vast swaths of the country. His security forces have been hard pressed to retain control of Syria's two biggest cities - Damascus and Aleppo. Rebels managed to assassinate key security members in a bombing several weeks ago. There have been a steady but increasing stream of defections, including Hijab.

It also appears that Assad's brother was grievously injured in that July 18 bombing. A Russian minister also indicated that Assad's willing to give up power:

Quoting Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, the newspaper reported that Maher Assad's condition "is very serious and he is fighting for his life."

The July blast took place during a high-level meeting at the state security ministry in the capital. Among those killed were Defense Minister Daoud Rajha, former Defense Minister Hassan Turkmani, and Assad brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, who served as the country's deputy defense minister. The suicide attack was carried out by a bodyguard for the president's inner circle, a Syrian security source said at the time. Until now it was unclear whether Maher Assad had attended the meeting.

Bogdanov added that President Assad is prepared to give up power, according to the Al-Watan report. "We ask that this issue be dealt with quickly to bring about a solution to the crisis," he said. "We are speaking with the opposition and the Syrian government on a daily basis."

However, Assad's security forces continue the bloodletting and no one within the security establishment is willing to tell Assad that his time is done for the sake of all Syrians. He's apparently content to continue the violence to preserve his power. The Russians have moved to deny Bogdanov's claims, which further suggests that Assad isn't going anywhere - at least for now. They claim that Bogdanov never gave any interview to al-Watan, which other media outlets quickly re-reported.

There are also indications that Russia and Iran are busy propping up Assad's regime, even as Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are assisting the rebels.

At the same time, al Qaeda and other terror groups, including Hizbullah are looking to fill the power vacuum, which is something that Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Israel are all keenly hoping to avoid.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation suspended Syria from its membership as another UN official envoy is visiting Syria so as to draw attention to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Syria. The UN mission will fail just as surely as Kofi Annan's attempts did; Assad has no intention of giving up power, or stopping the violence, and rebel forces are just as unwilling to stop their own efforts as they continue to maintain and gain territory, even if those gains come at a significant humanitarian cost or that retribution for being part of Assad's government includes war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Egypt Continues Sinai Offensive

The Egyptian government is continuing to go after those responsible for a series of attacks on Egyptian security posts in Sinai. It's the largest Egyptian military operation in Sinai since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Hundreds of military vehicles and personnel are involved.

Egypt's President Mohamed Mursi - whose Islamist background in the Muslim Brotherhood has been eyed with suspicion by Israel since he was elected in June - on Wednesday fired the region's governor and country's intelligence chief in response to public anger over Sunday's attack. No one has claimed responsibility for the assault, in which the assailants seized two armored vehicles to storm an Israeli border crossing. One made it through before the attackers were killed by Israeli fire. Israel says militants based in Sinai and Palestinian hardliners in neighboring Gaza pose a growing threat to its border. It says Palestinians use illegal tunnels to smuggle in guns and travel across to join those on the Egyptian side. Israel has also been wary of Mursi's ideological affinity with Hamas, the Islamist group ruling Gaza, fearing he would take a softer position on Palestinian militancy than Mubarak. Mursi has brushed aside accusations that his politics would make it difficult for him to take a strong stance against violent groups sworn to Israel's destruction. His response to Sunday's attack, which happened during the evening "iftar" meal which breaks the daytime fast during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, may also be underpinned by public anger over the deaths of the border guards. In Egypt, there is wide respect for rank-and-file soldiers who are often poorly paid conscripts working in isolated places far from their families. Comments suggesting outgoing intelligence chief Mourad Mwafi had been aware of a threat but took no action fuelled that anger - despite suggestions he had been used as a scapegoat. "...we never imagined that a Muslim would kill his Muslim brother at iftar," Egypt's state news agency MENA quoted Mwafi as telling his Turkish counterpart.

Mursi is in a no-win position with the Islamists. On the one hand, he gained power because of support from the Muslim Brotherhood. On the other, attacking the Egyptian military cannot go unchallenged. The situation is being eyed warily in Israel, as the have to address the ongoing threats along Israel's southern border all while monitoring events in Syria.

Egypt Carries Out Airstrikes Against Terrorists Responsible For Sinai Attacks

The Egyptian air force carried out airstrikes against terrorists responsible for the attacks that left 16 Egyptian security forces dead as part of a larger plot to attack Israel in order to kill and/or capture Israelis for ransom.

The airstrikes along the Israeli-Egyptian border came after several Egyptian military checkpoints in the region were attacked overnight and three days after unknown gunmen attacked Egyptian border guards. The incidents have left Egypt lurching to contain the Sinai's growing lawlessness, which has been fostered by the upheaval of post-revolution Egypt and poses an important challenge for the country's new leadership.

An unnamed Egyptian senior military official told Agence France-Presse that “20 terrorists were killed” in the village of Tumah, near the Gaza border, by Apache helicopter strikes. The military source said the operation was ongoing and other airstrikes have been reported in neighboring villages.

It's the first airstrikes carried out by Egypt on Sinai since 1973. Such airstrikes need to be coordinated with Israel as part of the Israel-Egypt peace accord (Camp David). That means that Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas will claim that the Egyptian government is colluding with Israel.

Witnesses in Sheikh Zouaid, about 10 km (six miles) from Gaza, said they saw two military jets and heard sounds of explosions. Other witnesses in a nearby area said they saw three cars hit.

The strikes follow clashes between armed men and security forces at several security checkpoints in the Sinai region.

Armed men opened fire on several checkpoints in Arish and in the nearby town of Rafah on the border with Israel, according to a Reuters reporter and state media.

A Reuters reporter said one policeman and one resident had been confirmed wounded in these attacks.

Lawlessness in the rugged desert region bordering Israel has spread since the fall of autocratic leader Hosni Mubarak in an uprising 18 months ago and the election of an Islamist successor whose commitment to security cooperation with the Jewish state has yet to be tested.

Sinai has quickly fallen into a lawless region that the Egyptian government can barely control. That bodes poorly for Egypt, which needs tourists to feel safe across the country in order to reap the economic benefits. Terrorists have continued to infiltrate into Sinai from Gaza, despite a security cordon by Egyptian forces. Smuggling continues to do tremendous business on both sides of the Gaza-Egypt border.

Yet, the airstrikes show that the Egyptian government is willing to work with Israel on security arrangements and indicates that the Egyptians are more than willing to use force - though it appears that they're willing to do so only when their own security forces are killed. They have a long way to go on securing the Gaza border and the Hamas and other Islamic terror group agitators.

A Warning Sign From Sinai

Over the weekend, a major terror attack occurred in the Sinai Peninsula. It's been essentially turned into a no-man's land and Israel has warned its citizens to avoid the region. The main threat is that terror groups may seek to kidnap Israelis so as to demand the release of Palestinian terrorists held in Israeli jails.

16 members of the Egyptian security force were killed in a terror attack in Rafah that was meant to capture Egyptian vehicles so that they could then be used against Israel.

Egyptian state television reported that an Islamist militant group was behind the attack that came at sunset.

The Israeli military said the attack was part of a plot to abduct an Israeli soldier. Two vehicles commandeered by the attackers crashed into Israel, where one blew up and the other was struck by the Israeli air force.

In a statement, Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Israel's military and the internal security agency "thwarted an attack that could have injured many. The militants' attack methods again raise the need for determined Egyptian action to enforce security and prevent terror in the Sinai."

Terror attacks inside Sinai have increased in the past several years. The attacks have included Bedouins targeting oil pipelines connecting Sinai with Israel, as well as kidnapping of tourists. They've also involved Palestinian terrorists who have illegally entered Sinai with the purpose of then attacking Israel via a more porous border.

Israel has taken to beefing up its border with Sinai, but there are limitations on the number of Israeli forces that can be in close proximity to the border pursuant to the Camp David accords and security arrangements between Egypt and Israel. The terrorists have looked to take advantage of that situation, though they have also carried out mortar and rocket attacks against Israel from the Sinai, including one near Eilat.

These attacks highlight the ongoing instability in Sinai and that the Egyptian government has been ill equipped to deal with the situation, especially since Hosni Mubarak was deposed. The new regime has only now sought to bolster its security in the region, and the attacks against the security forces will likely mean that crossings between Gaza and Egypt will be scrutinized to a greater degree.

Israel has long warned that instability in Sinai has led to jihadi groups using the region for their own purposes and are suggesting that Egypt needs to crack down. That puts Egypt at odds with Hamas, which controls Gaza.

The attack was sophisticated, but it was also extremely ambitious and seemed to have been taken straight out of a Hollywood movie – breaking into an Egyptian military base, killing around a dozen soldiers, stealing two armored vehicles and then ramming them into Israel.

It shows that the terrorists are not afraid of Egypt and are willing to kill Egyptians on their way to kill Israelis.

For now, the IDF’s investigation will focus on determining the identity of the attackers. It seems that at least some of them are Egyptian Beduin from Sinai, while others might be Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. The IDF believes that the perpetrators are part of a larger global jihad infrastructure that is forming inside Sinai and is a threat not just to Israel but also to Egypt.

The attack was not connected to the one that Israel thwarted earlier in the day with an air strike on a global jihad cell in southern Gaza that killed one terrorist and seriously wounded another. That planned attack, which appears to have been thwarted – for the time being – was supposed to be different.

The IDF did, however, have vague intelligence about the second attack and, as a result, it was not a coincidence that OC Southern Command Maj.-Gen. Tal Russo was in an army base adjacent to the Kerem Shalom crossing when the attack took place.

What this means is that Israel is facing a reality along its border with Egypt that is becoming more and more similar to the situation along its border with Gaza – a number of groups all trying simultaneously and independently to attack Israel.

So, what will happen? Egypt will probably ask Israel to allow it to deploy additional army battalions in Sinai so they can crack down on the growing terrorist threat there.

As I noted above, putting more troops into Sinai would take coordination with Israel pursuant to existing security arrangements. This can certainly be done, but Israel will need to keep a wary eye on the region due to the ongoing threats posed by Hamas and affiliated terror groups that operate in Gaza and are using Sinai as a stepping stone to carry out attacks against Israel beyond the Gaza/Israel line.

It's a wake up call to the Egyptian government that they're facing a significant threat from terror groups exploiting the lawless regions to plot and carry out attacks against Egyptian interests.

Aleppo Besieged As Assad and Rebels Claim Victories

The fighting in and around Aleppo, Syria's commercial hub, continues and the number of refugees is soaring. 200,000 have fled the city as a result of the brutal fighting on the streets and in the buildings of multiple neighborhoods around the city.

Both Assad and rebel forces have claimed victories. Assad's forces have claimed that they've overrun rebel held areas and retaken the city after more than a week's worth of artillery assaults and airstrikes.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group, reported heavy shelling in Salaheddine today, suggesting the district or parts of it are still under rebel control. An officer interviewed by the state-run TV channel said “mercenaries” from other countries, including Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, were helping the rebels in Aleppo.

Troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have been battling rebels who seized several neighborhoods in Aleppo, Syria’s most populous city and its commercial hub, since last week. The army pounded the city with heavy artillery and helicopter gunships, opposition groups say.

Motee al-Bateen, a member of the executive committee of the Syrian National Council, the main opposition group, said he couldn’t confirm that Salaheddine has fallen into army hands.

“How much territory the opposition holds is not important,” he said by telephone from Istanbul today. “What’s important is to engage the troops in cycles of attack-and- retreat to exhaust them.”

Al-Bateen said the army was using mortars, rocket launchers and tanks to shell areas from a distance and avoid engaging rebels in close combat.

Rebels note that despite the artillery and airstrikes, they've continued to hold on to Aleppo. Moreover, they've noted that Assad's forces haven't invaded the city en masse, precisely because they'd be facing an uphill battle in a brutal urban setting.

Rebel forces also announced that they captured a significant military base near Aleppo. They managed to capture the position after heavy fighting, and gained heavy weapons to supplement their own weapons.

Pro-Assad groups have claimed that Assad's forces have assassinated a Saudi official, Bandar bin Sultan, who they claim involved in plotting to eliminate key members of the Syrian defense and intel establishment earlier this month. However, there's no evidence to substantiate those claims, but it does show the animosity between Syria and Saudi Arabia is growing. The Saudis have been working to bring Assad's regime to an end, both by diplomacy and by covert means.

Meanwhile, another Syrian official has defected. At the same time, a Chinese news outlet is reporting that Assad's continuing to claim that he seeks to carry out the terms of the Arab League/Kofi Annan plan to end the violence. It's just so much talk since Assad could have simply brought the violence to an end by reining in his brutal crackdown. He has no intention of giving up power peacefully, and is seeking retribution against those that questioned his regime.

At the same time, concerns are mounting that al Qaeda and other Islamists are taking advantage of the chaos to gain a foothold in Syria.