Drumbeat For Action Against Syria's Assad Grows Louder

The ongoing civil war in Syria has led to more than 100,000 dead, more than 2 million refugees situated in grim camps in Syria, Turkey, Jordan, and the entire region is in turmoil, especially after the latest reports indicating that chemical weapons of some kind were used against civilian populations in a Damascus suburb.

It's the latest in a string of scattered incidents involving chemical weapons in the civil war that have pushed the US, France, and others to warn that they may seek military action against Bashar Assad's regime for their violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Russia, along with China, continues working their stalling tactics at the UN as Assad continues his brutal crackdown against rebel forces, meaning that there's little chance of an immediate military response to the chemical weapons attack that may have killed anywhere from 130 to 1,300 people.

The British are putting forth a UN resolution at the Security Council, but Assad isn't going to stop fighting his enemies on the basis of a UN resolution. Efforts by UN inspectors to figure out what actually happened were hampered by a delay in getting access to the site, coming under sniper fire, and the fact that Assad's forces had laid siege to the area with conventional artillery for days before the inspectors could get on the ground there.

With the drumbeat of war growing louder, and the possibility that airstrikes may commence tomorrow, the Jerusalem Post is warning that the Israeli homefront is not prepared for an unconventional conflict - referring to chemical weapons. There’s also reports indicating that if the UN/NATO/US hit Assad targets in Syria, that Syria would retaliate against Israel. Some Israelis aren’t sure that Assad would or wouldn’t attack.

It doesn’t matter that Israel has Iron Dome, Patriot and other missile defense systems available to it; Syria going after Israel if hit by airstrikes would open up a can of worms not seen since the 1991 Gulf War. Back then, Israel withstood the brunt of dozens of scud launches that slammed into Israel without retaliation, but would Israel do the same once again?

I’m not so sure. There are reasons that Assad wouldn’t want to enlarge the fight to include Israel out of practical reasons - if his military can barely scratch out a stalemate against rebel forces, it would suffer badly in a fight against the IDF. And Israel may well respond not only with airstrikes of its own, but could send in its Sayeret Matkal and other special forces to go after specific targets - missions that it might not have considered unless Israel was directly attacked. That’s not to say that Israel hasn’t gone after Syrian targets of opportunity before - the airstrike against the nuclear facility a few years back shows that they’ll act preemptively and with force if necessary.

But there are also reasons Assad would go after Israel - make a muddled mess and further complicate things for the rebels and the West - since affiliations/backing for various groups arrayed against Assad have different motivations and sometimes run counter to each other.

Still, airstrikes will hurt Assad, but they’ll end up having unpredictable outcomes not only for Israel, but for Lebanon, which is where Syria still exerts influence and where Assad’s proxies in Hizbullah continue to hold sway. Hizbullah is a wildcard in this, and they could again make a mess of Lebanon, to say nothing of Northern Israel.

If there’s a callup of Israeli forces, it may also be out of a concern that Hizbullah may well be planning to take the pressure off Assad by launching attacks against Israel to take media pressure off Assad and put the spotlight again on Israel.

War Crimes Abound As Syrian Civil War Drags On

It should come as no surprise that war crimes are an ongoing feature of the Syrian civil war. Whether it's the Syrian military operating at the behest of Bashar al-Assad bombarding civilian areas or his loyalist militias engaging in massacres, or rebel forces murdering captured government officials by throwing them off rooftops, war crimes are an ongoing concern and worry for Syrians and the human rights groups tracking such actions.

The only difference between the sides is the scope of the war crimes and human rights violations; the rebels have done it to a lesser degree than Assad's goon squads:

Syrian government forces and allied shabbiha militia have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, including murder and torture in what appears to be state-directed policy, UN human rights investigators said on Wednesday.

Syrian rebels fighting to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad have also committed war crimes but these "did not reach the gravity, frequency and scale" of those carried out by the army and security forces, they said.

"The commission found reasonable grounds to believe that government forces and the shabbiha had committed the crimes against humanity of murder and of torture, war crimes and gross violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law, including unlawful killing, torture, arbitrary arrest and detention, sexual violence, indiscriminate attack, pillaging and destruction of property," said the 102-page report by the independent investigators led by Paulo Pinheiro.

Both government forces and armed insurgents had violated rights of children during the 17-month-old conflict, it said.

Airstrikes continue to take their toll on the Syrian people.

Meanwhile, the violence continues to spill over into Lebanon while Israel, Iraq, and Turkey are all warily watching the situation. The violence in Lebanon includes a series of abductions as retaliation for relatives being captured or killed inside Syria.

At the same time, the Pentagon is warning that Iran is training militias to fight in support of Assad inside Syria.

Sitting alongside Panetta at a Pentagon news conference Tuesday, Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the militia, which is generally made up of Syrian Shiite forces, is being used to take the pressure off the Syrian regime forces.

“Any army would be taxed with that kind of pace,” Dempsey said. “They are having resupply problems, they are having morale problems, they are having the kind of wear and tear that would come of being in a fight for as long as they have.”

Dempsey also said that it appears Syrian rebels were able to shoot down a Syrian warplane but said he has seen no indication that they are armed with heavy weapons or surface-to-air missiles, at least not yet.

He says the MiG fighter could have been shot down with small arms fire. Syria has blamed the crash on a technical malfunction, but Dempsey said the cause “didn’t appear to be mechanical.”

The Syrian civil war has aspects of a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar among others. Iran, both directly and indirectly, is supporting Assad's regime while Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar are supporting the rebel forces hoping to topple Assad's regime. Russia is also trying to stave off NATO or UN military action to bring the conflict to a close, which has the effect of supporting Assad and his odious regime. That compares with France and the US, which are leading efforts to bring sanctions and other actions to bear against Assad. The other actions include covert support for the rebel forces, including communications gear and logistical support at the US base at Incerlik in Turkey.

Is Assad's Regime On Verge of Collapsing?

According to the recently defected former Prime Minister Riyad Hijab, Bashar al-Assad's regime controls no more than 30% of the country and it's on the verge of collapsing.

“Based on my experience and my position, the regime is falling apart morally, materially, economically,” the former official, Riyad Farid Hijab, said at a news conference in Amman, Jordan. “Its military is rusting, and it only controls 30 percent of Syria’s territory.”

He added that many high-level civilian and military officials in Syria — “leaders with dignity” — were waiting to defect. Mr. Hijab said he fled the Syrian capital, Damascus, because the government threatened his family and had no reasonable means to end the violence. He also urged the opposition to unify and to move ahead with plans for a transitional government and “a civilian democratic state that preserves the right, justice and dignity of all Syrians.”

But he said he had no interest in a formal position. “I have sacrificed myself in the campaign of righteousness,” he said. “I don’t want to satisfy anyone but God.”

Mr. Hijab’s claims about the weakness of the Assad government could not be independently verified, and he gave few details to support his harsh assessment. A Sunni technocrat from the eastern city of Deir al-Zour — which has been enduring shelling and fighting for weeks — Mr. Hijab was not a member of Mr. Assad’s inner circle, and he was appointed to the position of prime minister only in June.

There's no way to know for sure just how secure Assad's regime is, but there have been indications that Assad's lost control of vast swaths of the country. His security forces have been hard pressed to retain control of Syria's two biggest cities - Damascus and Aleppo. Rebels managed to assassinate key security members in a bombing several weeks ago. There have been a steady but increasing stream of defections, including Hijab.

It also appears that Assad's brother was grievously injured in that July 18 bombing. A Russian minister also indicated that Assad's willing to give up power:

Quoting Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, the newspaper reported that Maher Assad's condition "is very serious and he is fighting for his life."

The July blast took place during a high-level meeting at the state security ministry in the capital. Among those killed were Defense Minister Daoud Rajha, former Defense Minister Hassan Turkmani, and Assad brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, who served as the country's deputy defense minister. The suicide attack was carried out by a bodyguard for the president's inner circle, a Syrian security source said at the time. Until now it was unclear whether Maher Assad had attended the meeting.

Bogdanov added that President Assad is prepared to give up power, according to the Al-Watan report. "We ask that this issue be dealt with quickly to bring about a solution to the crisis," he said. "We are speaking with the opposition and the Syrian government on a daily basis."

However, Assad's security forces continue the bloodletting and no one within the security establishment is willing to tell Assad that his time is done for the sake of all Syrians. He's apparently content to continue the violence to preserve his power. The Russians have moved to deny Bogdanov's claims, which further suggests that Assad isn't going anywhere - at least for now. They claim that Bogdanov never gave any interview to al-Watan, which other media outlets quickly re-reported.

There are also indications that Russia and Iran are busy propping up Assad's regime, even as Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are assisting the rebels.

At the same time, al Qaeda and other terror groups, including Hizbullah are looking to fill the power vacuum, which is something that Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Israel are all keenly hoping to avoid.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation suspended Syria from its membership as another UN official envoy is visiting Syria so as to draw attention to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Syria. The UN mission will fail just as surely as Kofi Annan's attempts did; Assad has no intention of giving up power, or stopping the violence, and rebel forces are just as unwilling to stop their own efforts as they continue to maintain and gain territory, even if those gains come at a significant humanitarian cost or that retribution for being part of Assad's government includes war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Assad Preparing For Aleppo Assault as Civil War Rages On

Reports indicate that Bashar al-Assad's forces are preparing for a ground offensive against rebel-held areas of Aleppo. That will most certainly increase the casualties significantly over the already high tallies seen across the country in recent weeks.

Syria on Friday amassed troops in the northern city of Aleppo in preparation for an onslaught on rebel-held areas and the opposition reported a massacre in the central city of Hama.

Opposition activists said more than 62 people, including women and children, were killed in a massacre committed by forces loyal to President Bashar Assad in Hama. The claim by the Local Coordination Committees could not be independently verified.

In Aleppo, Syria's main commercial center, the Syrian army sent more troops and tanks to break a stalemate in fighting with rebels holding out for six days in opposition areas mainly in the east and southwest of the city near the border with Turkey.

"Dozens of trucks loaded with troops and backed by more than 100 tanks are being positioned around Aleppo," Abu Omar al-Halabi, a commander in the rebel Free Syrian Army, told dpa by phone.

The UN is hobbled by a split Security Council - the Russians and Chinese are blocking everything related to Syria, up to and including even weak-worded condemnation of the violence. Kofi Annan admitted as much when he declared his mission to implement a peace deal was a failure and that he was stepping down as envoy to Syria effective at the end of the month.

Assad's looking out for one thing - to remain in power at all costs. That means paying lip service to the diplomats all while crushing those opposed to him. The burden falls on Syrians who can't get out of the way of the violence, or who have declared allegiance to one side or the other.

Meanwhile, the NY Times reports Assad's forces are bedeviled by the fact that they're not prepared to deal with an insurrection where rebel forces (the Free Syrian Army and other unaffiliated groups) are able to mount coordinated attacks and capture some of the same weapons for use against the Syrian army. It's a situation that the Libyan military faced when Mumar Khadafi sought to crush the rebellion-turned-civil war and that the Egyptian military faced when Hosni Mubarak sought to stop the protests against his regime.

However, one shouldn't feel sorry for Assad because his military is having a tough time dealing with the rebel forces. It appears that even with a tactical advantage in the air (from helicopters and jets), it's just enough for Assad's forces to maintain the status quo. The Syrian military wasn't known for having a high state of preparedness to begin with, so equipment that was unreliable to start has only become more so. That's one of the reasons those helicopters that the Russians were refurbishing was so valued by the regime. They needed them to fill in for those that were already flying missions to support Assad's loyalists on the ground.

If he can't resupply and rearm, then the rebels will gain the upper hand and leave Assad with fewer and fewer options for how to retain power. It potentially opens the door for Assad to use chemical or biological weapons as a last ditch effort to crush the opposition though he claims that he wouldn't use it against the Syrian people (even as he calls the fighters arrayed against him foreign terror groups and proxies of the US and/or Israel, Syria, Qatar or others).

Meanwhile, Russia has dispatched more ships and ground forces to their port in Tartus; they are claiming that they are there to protect Russia's personnel and infrastructure at the port.

Rebel forces have again claimed that the regime carried out massacres in Hama, while both sides are blaming the other for a mortar attack against a Palestinian refugee camp that killed nearly 2 dozen civilians.

Rebels Pushed Back In Damascus As They Gain Ground Elsewhere

Bashar al Assad's Syrian military has managed to push back an offensive by rebel forces in the capital of Damascus. It was not without a heavy toll in civilian casualties, which seems to be the norm in the fighting there.

Artillery attacks and airstrikes from helicopters are causing significant damage across the city, particularly in the area of Midan:

On Thursday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in Britain, said a group of rebel fighters claimed to have routed government soldiers in a section of Midan neighborhood, taking over a piece of one of the city’s oldest neighborhoods. The claim, like most of the reports of fighting and of casualties, could not be independently confirmed.

But on Friday Syrian state media and the Syrian Observatory said government forces, fighting back with a superior military machine pitted against an opposition still working predominantly with small-caliber weapons, had retaken Midan, while the number of dead in fighting across the land on Thursday was reported to have risen above 300. Of the dead, 98 were soldiers, 139 civilians and 65 rebels, rebels said.

The figures updated earlier estimates by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights for the death toll on Thursday, claiming that 155 civilians and 93 government soldiers were killed, including nearly 60 civilians in and around Damascus.

The latest tally was among the highest — if not the highest — claimed in a single day since the revolt began in March 2011. It could not be independently corroborated because of the difficulties and restrictions on independent news gathering in Syria.

Claiming victory in Midan, Syrian state television declared: “Our brave army forces have completely cleaned the area of Midan in Damascus of the remaining mercenary terrorists and have re-established security.” Rebels said they had staged a “tactical withdrawal” from Midan to avert civilian casualties.

Neither side appears to bother with worrying about collateral damage; we're talking about heavy combat in a dense urban setting.

At the same time pitched battles are occurring in Damascus, rebel forces claimed to have captured border crossings on both the Turkish and Iraqi borders. That's a significant development since it would enable the rebel forces to regroup and rearm more freely. The rebels were claiming to have briefly held the Turkish border crossing before withdrawing from the area because of concerns over the Syrian military's capabilities in that area; they did so for propaganda purposes.

Meanwhile, there are conflicting reports that the Russians have been informed that Assad's willing to step down. That would be news to the Syrian media, which is controlled by Assad, that denied the allegations.

Russia's ambassador to France said Friday that he believes Syria's president is ready to step down "in a civilized way." But the Syrian government immediately denied it.

Alexander Orlov said that Bashar Assad's acceptance of an international agreement in June for a transition toward a more democratic regime, and his subsequent step of naming a representative to negotiate the transition, meant that he was prepared to give up leadership.

The country is sliding into even further chaos, with fighting around the capital Damascus intensifying two days after the inner circle of Assad's regime was hit by an attack that killed three top Syrian defense officials.

"Personally ... I think it will be difficult for him to stay in office given everything that's happened," Orlov said in an interview with Radio France Internationale.

Orlov spoke a day after Moscow vetoed a Western-backed U.N. resolution aimed at pressuring President Bashar Assad's government to end the war. Friday was the deadline for the U.N. to renew its 300-member observer mission in Syria, or let the mandate expire.

Russia has been busy propping up the Assad regime all while claiming it wasn't doing so. They have repeatedly blocked any United Nations actions, particularly under Chapter VII that allows the use of military force. Yesterday, they, along with the Chinese vetoed tougher sanctions against the regime. That move clearly indicates an intention to prop up the regime, and that spells bad news for Russia when the regime finally is overthrown. The Syrian people aren't going to forget who was involved in propping up the regime or that the Russians, along with the Chinese and Iranians don't have the well being of the Syrian people in mind when they're busy propping up a murderous tyrant. Russia could well lose one of its last remaining allies/clients in the Middle East if Assad falls.

At the same time, a shipment of Syrian-owned refurbished attack helicopters have been offloaded from a Russian cargo ship back in Russia. These aren't new Syrian helicopters, but were part of a deal between the two countries for Syria to refurbish them and had been a part of a row with the US over arming the Assad regime; it would seem the Russians backed away from precipice.

Rumors Rampant That Assad's On The Run

Everything is on rumor at the moment. No one seems to have seen Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad in the past few days, particularly since the attacks began in Damascus proper and especially after the bombing that took out his defense ministers yesterday.

The silence is fueling rumors of his whereabouts and whether he's still in control of the government. However, considering that there were a series of proclamations announcing the replacements to those who were killed in yesterday's audacious bombing of security officials, including the defense minister and his deputy (one of Assad's brothers-in-law), it appears that he's still running the show.

The fact that Assad made no public statement about such a devastating attack quickly fueled rumors that the president himself had been injured or killed. It was also unclear where his wife and children were after the bombing.

One Syrian opposition activist claimed in an interview with Al Arabiya television network that the presidential jet had left the Damascus airport Wednesday for Latakia, echoing a flurry of online claims by activists that Assad had been injured and sent to the Mediterranean port city.

However, Syrian state media reported that Assad had issued two decrees after the Wednesday attack, appointing Gen. Fahd Jassem Freij as defense minister and deputy commander-in-chief of the army.

There are rumors that he's out of Damascus and running things from one of his palaces in Latakia (an Alawite majority town on the coast), and there are rumors that his presidential jet has taken off to points unknown, though it appears that the destination was Latakia.

None of the reports can be substantiated though he's clearly unsure of his personal safety so he's on the move and doesn't know who he can trust. So, there's a measure of safety in the silence/ambiguity.

Yesterday's events have once again raised questions of a post-Assad Syria, and the US is beginning to consider that possibility, including consulting with Israel and other countries.

All this comes as Syrian forces continue attacking Damascus from the air and with artillery.

The army shelled its own capital from the surrounding mountains as night fell on Wednesday. Government troops, having vowed retaliation for the assassination, fired machine guns into the city from helicopters.

Rebels, massed in several neighborhoods, are armed mostly with small arms and rocket-propelled grenades.

Activist videos posted on the Internet showed bloodied bodies lying in the street.

Striking at the Heart of Assad's Regime

Fighting has intensified in and around Damascus over the past couple of days, but today's news is breathtaking in its consequences. A suicide bomber, who apparently was a bodyguard, blew up at a meeting of high ranking security officials.

Bashar al-Assad's brother in law and defense minister were killed in the blast. At the same time several reports indicate that more generals have defected.

The assassinations were the first of such high-ranking members of the power elite in the 17-month revolt against Mr. Assad’s rule, and could represent a turning point in the conflict, analysts said, confirming that opposition forces have been marshaling their strength to strike at the close-knit centers of state power.

According to state television, the dead included the defense minister, Daoud Rajha, and Asef Shawkat, the president’s brother-in-law who was the deputy chief of staff of the Syrian military. But the television report rejected claims by activists that the minister of the interior also was killed, saying he remained alive and in stable condition.

The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said all the members of the crisis group set up by President Assad to try to put down the revolt were are either dead or injured. But there was no official confirmation of that account.

With tensions already high in Damascus after three days of clashes between the Syrian Army and rebels near the city center, SANA, the official news agency, described the assault as a “suicide terrorist attack.” Opponents claimed a major victory.

“The Syrian regime has started to collapse,” said the activist who heads the Syrian Observatory. “There was fighting for three days inside Damascus, it was not just a gun battle, and now someone has killed or injured all these important people.”

The Free Syrian Army has claimed responsibility and that they were able to infiltrate the ministry building shows that the opposition has managed to infiltrate the regime and its security measures.

It's premature to call this the beginning of the end of Assad's regime, but it's the beginning of the next phase in the ongoing civil war. Considering that those involved plotting in the brutal crackdown were among those killed, it's going to be interesting to see the strategy that Assad uses going forward. Considering how ignorant Assad is of the plight of his countrymen, I fully expect him to further intensify the crackdown and brutalization of the Syrian people.

We're already seeing that there is widespread shelling of civilian areas, as BBC reports.

The more that he uses violence, the more the country realizes that Assad has got to go. We're already seeing some of those dividends as more military leaders defect rather than stay and fight against their fellow countrymen.

The British Foreign Secretary, in condemning the bombing that took out Assad's defense ministers, also used it as an opportunity to again assert that the UN needs to act under Chapter VII (using force) to solve the crisis there.

Russia continues blocking UN Chapter VII-type actions, but it's again reiterating that it will not prop up Assad. That's rather duplicitous of them, considering that Assad is being propped up by Russia by their stubborn refusal to offer up Assad a golden parachute to exile that avoids the ignominious end that met the likes of Mumar Khadafi.

UPDATE:
I don't have a crystal ball about what will happen, but it might be instructive to look at Yemen's civil war/insurrection for guidance. There, Ali Abdullah Saleh was hit in a bombing and forced to leave the country for medical treatment but he and his regime never broke and he was able to return. The endgame there was that on January 22, 2012, the Yemeni parliament passed a law that granted Saleh immunity from being prosecuted and he left Yemen for treatment in the United States. Saleh stepped down and formally ceded power to his deputy Abd Rabbuh Mansur Al-Hadi and Al-Hadi will be a caretaker for the government as a new constitution is drafted and new elections are scheduled for 2014. However, the security situation there remains dire as the government is locked in a battle with al Qaeda.

UPDATE:
Video is streaming showing fighting on the streets in Damascus despite propaganda video shown by Assad's media outlets attempting to show calm:

Syrian Civil War Bloodletting Continues

It's been apparent that Syria has been waging a civil war for nearly a year now, but a growing number of diplomats and International Red Cross are being forced to realize that the situation isn't a mere insurrection or rebels or terrorists fighting against Bashar al-Assad's regime as Assad would have the world believe.

Rebel groups have been taking and holding territory around the country, but not without a great cost to the Syrians. Assad's taken a no-holds-barred policy, and artillery assaults and massacres are being utilized on an increasingly regular basis. It's Assad's updated Hama rules. There can be no opposition if you utterly crush it.

Despite Assad's claims that he's willing to talk transition and increased power to opposition groups, Assad's actions show he has no intention to share power or ever willingly step down. Instead, he's about decimating the opposition by and through his military forces and loyalist militias.

While fighting has been ongoing around the country, and particularly in rebel strongholds such as Hama and Homs, there's renewed fighting on the capital's doorstep. Fighting has resumed in Damascus suburbs, and as has been typical with Assad, his media outlets report this as the regime going after terror groups:

The official Syrian news service reported Monday that authorities were in pursuit of an "armed terrorist group" that had fled from the capital's Tadamon district. Heavy fighting was reported Sunday in that neighborhood.

Fighting was ongoing Monday in the Abu Habil and al-Zahira areas of the capital, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group based in Britain.

Other opposition activists reported clashes in the south Damascus area of Kafr Souseh. A video purportedly filmed in that district in the dawn hours included the sounds of heavy shooting.

Later, an activist reached by telephone said battles were raging in the Midan district, an opposition hotbed. The activist, who requested anonymity because of safety concerns, said Sunday's clashes in southern Damascus occurred in the Kfar Souseh area as well as Tadamon.

The Local Coordination Committees, a network of opposition groups, said government troops had blocked the road leading to the Midan on Monday. Amateur video footage purportedly filmed in Midan and shared on Facebook showed thick clouds of black smoke rising to the sky. In another clip, the sound of heavy gunfire could be heard.

The diplomats seem to be as clueless as they've always been when dealing with the situation - and no amount of paper produced at the Arab League or United Nations will force Assad aside, not when Russia continues to backstop the Assad regime. Russia has yet to understand the consequences of that action, even as they're claiming that the West is blackmailing them into action and the US isn't willing to undertake another NATO mission in Syria when presidential elections are awaiting in November. The status quo will continue into 2013, so that leaves both Assad and the rebels, including the Syrian National Council to figure out how to survive past then. That means the civil war will continue grinding out a butchers' bill that grows by the day.

All the while, other countries are growing tired of Assad's actions, as Morocco has tossed out Assad's diplomats.

Diplomacy Falls Apart As Syrian Civil War Continues

Hundreds of people have been killed in the past week as the Syrian military loyal to Bashar al-Assad continues its assault against rebel strongholds across the country, which brings the overall tally to more than 16,500. Nearly 70% of the total are civilians. There's even video showing a funeral procession coming under attack, though no one knows who was behind a deadly bombing in Damascus. Victims were buried in a mass grave.

That follows a series of brazen attacks against the government's facilities in and around Damascus that showed just how vulnerable the regime's power has become.

Today, there are reports that Assad's resorted to using helicopters to bombard rebel strongholds. It was those helicopter raids, particularly close to the border with Turkey that sent the Turkish air force to scramble fighter jets towards the border on three separate occasions in the past 24 hours.

Turkey scrambled six F-16 fighter jets in three separate incidents responding to Syrian military helicopters approaching the border on Sunday, its armed forces command said on Monday.

It was the second time in as many days Turkish jets were launched in response to Syrian helicopters flying near the border and comes after a Turkish reconnaissance plane was shot down by Syria late last month.

The jets took off from Incirlik air base in southern Turkey after Syrian helicopters were spotted flying south of the Turkish province of Hatay, the chief of general staff said on the military's website.

Two helicopters had come within 2.5 miles and one had come within 2 miles of the border, it said. Two of the helicopters were MI-8 type aircraft and one was an MI-17, all Russian-built transport helicopters.

On Sunday, Turkey said it had scrambled six F-16s near its border with Syria after similar transport helicopters were spotted flying either within 4 miles of the border or "close" to the border.

Turkey has repeatedly warned Syria that force will be met with force if Syria sends troops or aircraft towards the border following Syria shooting down a Turkey F-4 jet over the Mediterranean Sea.

Syria continues mucking around along its border with Lebanon as well. The Chinese, via the United Nations, are calling on Syria to stop messing around with the border with Lebanon following a series of incursions by the Syrian military to go after the rebel forces in the border region.

Russia has once again sided with Assad to thwart any kind of diplomatic solution, though rebel groups are opposed to allowing Assad to participate in any kind of transitional government since that would likely mean that Assad would be able to game the system to his favor and remain in power.

Rebels Continue Attacks as Turkey Threatens Assad

It's been a bad few days for Bashar al-Assad. First, his forces shot down a Turkish plane over the Mediterranean Sea. Then, NATO issued a statement backing Turkey (one of the member states) and Turkey issued its own statement reminding Turkey that it can and will shoot back if threatened and Syria can't control itself.

Syria knew that they were shooting down the Turkish F-4 jet.

Under new rules of engagement for the Turkish army, “any military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria in a way that may pose a risk or danger will be viewed as a threat and treated as a military target,” he said. Syrian security forces have frequently carried out operations against opposition forces near the border area as part of Assad’s 15- month crackdown.

Turkey’s warning escalates the risk that the civil conflict may draw in Syria’s neighbors. Ties between the former allies have deteriorated as the death toll in Syria mounts. Erdogan has called on Assad to step down and some of the main Syrian opposition groups have operated from Turkish bases.

Now, Assad's forces are finding themselves fighting in and around the capital of Damascus while defections from his military continue.

The fighting around Damascus is a sign that the rebel forces are taking the fight to Assad's loyalists and that they think that they've got sufficient strength to challenge Assad on his home turf.

Video published by activists recorded heavy gunfire and explosions. A trail of fresh blood on a sidewalk in the suburb of Qudsiya led into a building where one casualty was taken. A naked man writhed in pain, his body pierced by shrapnel.

The Syrian state news agency SANA said "armed terrorist groups" had blocked the old road from Damascus to Beirut.

"The clashes led to the killing of tens of terrorists, wounding a large number of them, arresting others and seizing their weapons which included RPG launchers, sniper rifles, machineguns and a huge amount of ammunition," the agency said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported heavy fighting near the Republican Guard headquarters in Qudsiya, and in the Damascus suburbs of al-Hama and Mashrou' Dumar, just 9 km (6 miles) outside the capital.

It said 38 civilians and 24 troops had been killed during the day across Syria.

Samir al-Shami, an activist in Damascus, said tanks and armored vehicles were out on the streets of the suburbs and some activists reported that one tank had been blown up.

The British-based Observatory, which has a network of activists across Syria, said security forces and armored vehicles stormed the neighborhood of Barzeh, an opposition toehold inside Damascus, and there were sounds of heavy gunfire.

Assad's loyalists continue to cause trouble in neighboring Lebanon as well.

Perhaps the most important sign that Assad's fortunes are beginning to change in a serious way is that Russian leader Vladimir Putin noted in meetings with Israeli officials that Russia is not obligated to Assad, but that it has interests in Syria.

"We asked Putin for Russia to work more actively to preserve stability in Syria, to prevent biological and chemical weapons from falling into the hands of Hezbollah or other terror groups," the source said. "Putin said that he is not obligated to Assad, but that Russia and Syria have strategic relations."

Russia has to date expressed support for the Assad regime, despite the bloodbath the regime is conducting against his citizens.

During his meeting with President Shimon Peres, Putin discussed the possibility that a Western state would act to bring down the Assad regime in Syria.

"From my experience, one must think about the consequences of an act before doing it," Putin was quoted as saying. "Look what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. With regard to Syria, one must think carefully whether the opposition that will rise to power will be what the West wants it to be, or whether it will end up being totally the opposite."

If Putin is that serious about maintaining strategic relations with Syria, it ought to be putting out feelers to Assad about giving him a golden parachute that would bring about a swift end to his regime. But don't expect that to happen since Syrians aren't likely to look towards Russia for assistance going forward given the Russian regime's longstanding support of Assad as well as distrust of Iran and China for similar reasons.

A New Phase in the Syrian Civil War

I'm going to utilize the term civil war in regards to the situation in Syria. Rebel forces are holding territory in the country despite an onslaught from Bashar al Assad's loyal militias and military forces. The rebels are not only fighting, but gaining territory despite the horrible atrocities inflicted by the regime against those that dare oppose them.

The new from the besieged city of Haffa is grim - the stench of death is everywhere, but there's no way to know the number of casualties as fighting was still ongoing and bodies were apparently policed:

The UN Supervisory Mission in Syria said observers in the town reported finding it all but deserted with a strong stench of dead bodies and almost all government institutions gutted from the inside.

Sky's foreign affairs editor Tim Marshall, who is in Syria, said the observers had also found many cars burned, including police cars.

The observers were escorted into the town by government forces.

The news comes a day after Syrian authorities said the area had been "cleansed" of rebel fighters.

On Wednesday, rebels were said to have withdrawn from the besieged town and nearby villages that had been under intense regime shelling for eight days.

The UN statement said: "A strong stench of dead bodies was in the air and there appeared to be pockets in the town were fighting is still ongoing."
It added: "Most government institutions, including the post office, were set on fire from inside.

"Archives were burnt, stores were looted and set on fire, residential homes appeared rummaged and the doors were open."

It said the number of casualties was still unclear.

The war appears heading into a new phase as France is contemplating providing communications equipment to the rebel forces. That's a significant step and shouldn't be discounted considering just how Assad's regime has fought the insurrection by limiting communications between opposition groups.

New communications equipment would allow the rebels greater coordination in defying the Assad regime, as well as getting their messages out to the rest of the world.

At the same time, Russia is sending a small contingent of combat troops to guard its port facilities in Tartus, Syria. That further complicates the diplomatic efforts and puts Russian troops on the ground in Syria at a time when the West is looking to find ways to oust Assad. US officials also clarified that the Russians were sending replacement parts for Russian-made helicopters, not sending new helicopters, though the outcome is still that Assad can use those helicopters and the replacement parts as part of his ongoing war against the rebel forces.

Having the Russian troops on the ground reduces the chances of an operation to oust Assad and greatly increases the risks for any kind of military operation. It's the most concrete example to date of Russian support for Assad, despite countless examples of crimes against humanity and war crimes. Those crimes include using sexual assaults and rape to further the regime's goals.

The EU has banned luxury goods from being shipped to Syria, but it will be some time before the effects of that ban take its toll on the regime.

The conflict in Syria has repercussions for Israel as well. There, the concern is what happens to Syria's WMD program, particularly chemical weapons that the Syrians are known to possess.

srael’s concern focuses on two stark possibilities.

The first is that the weapons will fall into rogue hands – either al-Qaida or Hezbollah, which is believed to already be working to move some of the advanced military systems it has been storing in Syria to Lebanon out of fear that they will be captured by rebel forces. The takeover earlier this week of an air defense base in Syria by rebels underscores that fear.

The second option – considered more unlikely – is that Assad will use the weapons against Israel if he starts to think that his end is near. This way, he will try to divert attention away from the massacres his military forces have been perpetrating throughout Syria and instead have his people rally behind him in a war against Israel.

Syria’s chemical weapons program began in the mid 1970s. According to Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yehoshua Saguy, who served as head of Military Intelligence from 1979 to 1983, Egypt assisted the Syrians in starting the program.

“It was after the Yom Kippur War which they ultimately lost, and there were rumors about Israel’s purported nuclear capability,” Saguy recalled this week. “It was a totalitarian regime so they just diverted funds, purchased some basic capabilities from Egypt and later, with the help of experts from the former Soviet Union, began to build their own independent infrastructure.”

It took only a few years for the program to take off, and in 1982 the world witnessed what a dictator with chemical weapons was capable of doing. Hafez Assad ordered his military to quell Muslim Brotherhood protests in Hama. In addition to heavy shelling, the forces also used poisonous gas to kill the protesters.

Those concerns were amplified following reports that a Syrian military base was overrun by rebel forces. Israeli officials also believe that Hizbullah may be trying to get their advanced weapons out of Syria and into Lebanon before everything completely goes crazy in Syria.

Assad Continues Crackdown While World Watches

Bashar al Assad continues to put his own spin on his father's Hama rules guide to dealing with insurrection. Assad continues murdering those opposed to his regime at a frightening pace, but it's a slow bleed. A dozen here, a dozen there every few days, with larger massacres interspersed. That compares with his father, who killed tens of thousands in a brutal burst when eliminating the Muslim Brotherhood's presence in the city of Hama.

Hama, both the city and province, continue to be a thorn in Assad the younger's side, as it remains a center of opposition to Assad's regime.

While the world can do little but issue sternly worded letters and UN observers can't intercede and their own safety is put at risk by both sides to the conflict, the US has started to increase its rhetoric against Assad's patron in Russia. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that Syria was receiving helicopters from Russia, but what wasn't stated is that those helicopters were getting maintenance and refurbishment - they weren't exactly new to Syria's fleet.

What Mrs. Clinton did not say, however, was whether the aircraft were new shipments or, as administration officials say is more likely, helicopters that Syria had sent to Russia a few months ago for routine repairs and refurbishing, and which were now about to be returned.

“She put a little spin on it to put the Russians in a difficult position,” said one senior Defense Department official.

Mrs. Clinton’s claim about the helicopters, administration officials said, is part of a calculated effort to raise the pressure on Russia to abandon President Bashar al-Assad, its main ally in the Middle East. Russia has so far stuck by Mr. Assad’s government, worried that if he were ousted, Moscow would lose its influence in the region.

In response to Mrs. Clinton’s allegations, the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, accused the United States of hypocrisy on Wednesday, saying it had supplied weapons that could be used against demonstrators in other countries in the region. Mr. Lavrov, during a visit to Iran, repeated Russia’s claim that it is not supplying Damascus with any weapons that could be used in a civil war.

It's still a bad situation and the optics don't look good for Russia considering that Assad has been using those helicopters in going after the rebel forces.

Lavrov's criticism is accurate; the US has provided weapons to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and Egypt over the years and they were utilized in the crackdowns and suppression of dissent during the course of the Arab Spring.

Yet, the level of violence perpetrated by Assad is on a different scale, and the US wasn't providing those weapons shipments in the middle of what even the UN concedes is a civil war. Amnesty International has reported once again that Assad's forces are committing war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The London-based rights group called for an international response after claiming it had fresh evidence that victims, including children, had been dragged from their homes and shot dead by soldiers, who in some cases then set the remains on fire.

“This disturbing new evidence of an organised pattern of grave abuses highlights the pressing need for decisive international action,” said Amnesty’s Donatella Rovera on the release of the 70-page report entitled Deadly Reprisals.

The advocacy group interviewed people in 23 towns and villages across Syria and concluded that government forces and militias were guilty of “grave human rights violations and serious violations of international humanitarian law amounting to crimes against humanity and war crimes.”

UN observers finally reached one of the towns under fire, Haffeh, only to find it battered and deserted.

The diplomatic situation is further complicated by the fact that China is also thwarting actions at the UN alongside Russia.

It's a disturbing pattern of behavior by Assad's backers/patrons, all while the Syrians continue to suffer at the hands of his regime.

Assad's Loyalists Blame Houla Massacre On Rebels

Last week, more than 100 people were murdered in Houla. It's been reported that artillery was fired and subsequently roving militias came through to finish the job - executing dozens at close range with knives and small arms fire.

Is it any surprise that Bashar al-Assad's loyalists are claiming that the massacre was the result of rebel forces - not the government. The Assad-backed "investigation" claims that those killed were Assad loyalists and were unwilling to cooperate with the rebels, which is why they were targeted.

Meanwhile, China wants to give the failed Annan plan more time to work, even though the plan has been a miserable failure from the outset. It hasn't stopped the violence, and massacres continue. Human rights violations abound, and there's nothing that the UN observers can do to thwart war crimes or human rights violations because countries - like China and Russia are preventing anything more harsh than a strongly worded letter from being adopted by the Security Council.

That's even as the UN Secretary General concedes that war crimes and civil war are likely if both sides refuse to abide by the Annan plan. The fact is that UN observers aren't there to do anything more than observe. They can't force anyone to lower their weapons; they too have been targeted by both sides. The UN is in a no-win situation because Russia and China refuse to take stronger action against their client Assad.

I'd say that Syria is already seeing a civil war, and that war crimes and crimes against humanity are ongoing. Assad is doing everything within his power to stay in power - and that includes murdering those opposed to his regime.

The Syrian Civil War Grinds On Despite "Cease. Fire!"

The fighting in Syria rages on despite the fact that there's supposedly a ceasefire in place between rebel forces arrayed against Bashar al-Assad's security forces.

Bombings are increasingly common. A pair of bombings today killed at least 55 people and injured more than 400 others.

The explosions struck at rush hour in the Al Qazaz neighborhood and tore through a crowded intersection near a military intelligence branch, injuring 372 people, both civilians and members of the military, officials said. The blast was heard and felt throughout the city.

In a statement released by his spokesman, Annan reiterated his call to all parties to adhere to the weeks-old cease-fire. Previous calls for a stop to the violence have gone unheeded as President Bashar Assad's security forces have continued a brutal crackdown on dissent and some opposition fighters have taken up arms again.

The UN has tried to broker a ceasefire deal, but Assad's refused to stop his brutal crackdown against those opposed to his regime.

The pair of blasts were apparently two vehicles loaded with 2,200 of explosives and driven by suicide bombers.

So, what's next? That's the question being framed by NPR.

The U.N. plan is most publicly supported by the Russians, who believe there is still a way to mediate an end to the crisis in Syria. The Russians, long-time allies of the Syrian government, have opposed strict U.N. sanctions and calls for foreign intervention.

But a growing number feel the peace plan has failed.

They include Wissam Tarif, who runs the Beirut office of the activist group Avaaz, which does extensive work on Syria. He and others say the Syrian regime is simply not willing to stop the violence, which means it will never be able to reach a negotiated solution.

That's why Tarif calls the U.N. plan a "necessary failure" — meaning that the more the Russians see the regime's violations, the more likely they will be to go along with tougher measures against the Syrian leadership.

"Having said that, it's very important to note that this failure is very expensive and it's by the Syrian people's blood because hundreds continue to be killed in the country," Tarif says.

The Russians have blocked any more stringent actions against Assad, but the US doesn't want to get bogged down in another attempt at nation building coming off the heels of the Iraq and Afghanistan experiences.

Sanctions aren't stopping Assad, and he's finding ways around the sanctions.

This leaves Assad with the ability to crush the rebellion and do so with a free hand since there's little chance that he would see NATO forces prepare the battlefield in the manner that they did with the Libyan civil war.

UN Envoy Visits Syria as Bloodshed Continues Unabated

The United Nations sent former Secretary General Kofi Annan to Syria to meet with Bashar al-Assad's regime to get them to stop the brutalization of Syrians who seek political and social reforms (and Assad's overthrow). Assad may have given a diplomatic response to Annan, but the real response could be seen by yet another intensification of the crackdown and military assaults against rebel strongholds across the country.

The U.N.-Arab League envoy, Kofi Annan, said he had received a reply from Damascus to peace proposals that he laid out at the weekend, and wanted further clarifications.

"But given the grave and tragic situation on the ground, everyone must realize that time is of the essence. As (Annan) said in the region, this crisis cannot be allowed to drag on," his spokesman Ahmad Fawzi said in a statement from Geneva.

Official Syrian media accused "armed terrorists" of massacring 15 civilians, including young children, in a pro-government district of the central city of Homs, which has been the focal point of much fighting in recent weeks.

In the southern city of Deraa, cradle of what began a year ago as a peaceful uprising but has gradually evolved into an armed insurgency, opposition activists said government troops had raked buildings with anti-aircraft fire.

There were also reports of a tank bombardment on the village of al-Janoudieh in the northern Idlib region.

Reports from Syria cannot be independently verified as the authorities deny access to rights groups and journalists.

The United Nations says Assad's forces have killed more than 8,000 people in their drive to crush the uprising. Its refugee agency said on Tuesday that some 230,000 Syrians had fled their homes during the past 12 months, of whom around 30,000 have sought safety abroad.

Amnesty International said in a report that Syrians detained during the uprising had suffered widespread torture that amounted to a crime against humanity.

Italy has closed its embassy in Damascus and Russia is calling for a simultaneous cease-fire. Yet, Russia continues plying Assad with weapons. It says that it wont respond with military force to support Assad, but no one would or should expect them to. If that happened, it would further weaken Russian influence in the region.

Homs remains under assault, and civilians are taking the brunt of the casualties despite claims to the contrary from Assad's propagandists.

Meanwhile, Assad and his flacks are hoping to get someone to pay attention to Israel so that Assad can continue brutalizing the Syrian people - people who are demanding that Assad step aside and end his totalitarian regime's grip on the country. Thousands have been killed in the past year, tens of thousands more have been detained and/or disappeared by the regime's security forces.

Assad's loyalists have no problems sanitizing entire areas where rebel forces have held out - Baba Amr was pummeled and while structures are still standing, the neighborhood is wrecked. Thousands were displaced as a result. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians are internally displaced because of the violence, and thousands more are trying to get out of the country by any means necessary. That can involve trying to cross minefields set up by Assad's forces to keep them in.

War crimes one and all, but Assad figures that he can play the Israel card to avoid further scrutiny by the rest of the world. Too bad for him that it's not working. People are paying attention to what his regime is doing, and it's the Arab League that are among those who are putting the pressure to his regime.

Injured Journalists Smuggled Out of Syria As Violence Continues

The Red Cross continues their efforts to try and bring humanitarian aid to civilians caught in the crossfire and under siege by Syrian loyalists to Bashar al-Assad in places like Homs. They, along with Syrian rebel forces, were finally successful in smuggling out one of the journalists injured in the same attack that killed American journalist Marie Colvin and a French photographer.

Syrian rebels smuggled a wounded British journalist out of the besieged central city of Homs Tuesday and whisked him to safety in neighboring Lebanon, activist groups said. They did not manage to evacuate a wounded French journalist or the bodies of two other Western reporters killed last week.

The Syrian opposition group Local Coordination Committees and global activist group Avaaz said Paul Conroy was the only foreign journalist to escape Syria. Rima Fleihan, an LCC spokeswoman, said the Sunday Times photographer was smuggled out by Syrian army defectors.

There are unconfirmed reports that a wounded French journalist was also evacuated, but there's no confirmation despite claims from French President Sarkozy that it has happened.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave one of the stronger statements that Assad is a war criminal. It's an argument I've been making for some time now - based on the following evidence:

1. purposefully targeting civilian areas without regard for civilian casualties;
2. collective punishment by withholding humanitarian aid and all manner of supplies to embattled cities such as Homs and Hama;
3. specifically targeting opponents of the regime for elimination;
4. mass killings, including reports surfacing yesterday concerning the murder of dozens of civilians attempting to flee Hama but who were killed en masse near a checkpoint; and
5. unlawful detention of protesters and opposition groups.

Assad's forces are not restricting the use of deadly force solely against terrorists or collaborators as they have repeatedly stated on their state-controlled media outlets. They are engaging in the wanton attacks on cities like Hama and Homs to crush the opposition pursuant to Assad's version of his father's Hama rules. Crush the opposition to remain in power is what Assad is seeking to accomplish. 

To that end, Assad's more than willing to violate all manner of human rights to stay in power. 

Syrian forces are pushing deeper into Homs in an attempt to crush the opposition - and the carnage is expected to increase significantly in coming days. Despite Assad claiming that the new constitution approved in a referendum will increase political participation, Assad shows no signs of ever relinquishing power. Russia and China continue backing Assad, with Russia claiming that the referendum is a sign of reform and change.

Considering that Assad's forces intensified their crackdowns in areas that oppose the regime, it's not surprising that such a large percentage of those voting supported the referendum. Those opposed to the regime boycotted the vote, even if they were capable of going to a voting location without fear of being killed in crossfire. It's a self-serving referendum that does nothing to expand political access or bring about the end to the bloody crackdown.  

Syrian Rebel Groups Clamor For Weapons To Finish Assad While Assad's Security Forces Continue Homs Assault

The diplomatic efforts to force Bashar al-Assad continue. Friends of Syria met to discuss efforts, including the United States, European and Arab nations, and have indicated that they're willing to expand sanctions and other efforts to stop the murderous rampage that Assad's security forces have been conducting to end protests against the regime. The brutal crackdown has resulted in thousands dead, including hundreds in the past three weeks in the City of Homs. They're calling for an immediate ceasefire.

Rebel groups, realizing that the diplomatic efforts have gone nowhere and haven't forced Assad to scale back his crackdown, are now clamoring for weapons and the means to topple Assad directly.

The main opposition Syrian National Council outlined on Friday its vision for a post-Assad Syria, and appealed for the weapons required to make that happen.

The SNC announced it was proposing an interim presidential council of national leaders and a truth and reconciliation committee at a meeting of the “Friends of Syria” group of 70 Western and Arab nations in Tunisia Friday.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said ahead of the meeting that rebel fighters would become “increasingly capable,” saying they will “from somewhere, somehow, find the means to defend themselves as well as begin offensive measures."

And, in her opening remarks to the conference, Clinton said the regime of President Bashar Assad had "ignored every warning, squandered every opportunity and broken every agreement."

With any kind of effort akin to the NATO air mission over Libya all but dead given Russian and Chinese threatened and actual vetoes in the UN Security Council, the diplomatic efforts are reduced to strongly worded letters and condemnation. Action is far harder to come by.

At the same time, efforts to create a humanitarian corridor to allow food and vital supplies to cities like Homs aren't going to go anywhere. Assad is engaging in crimes against humanity and collective punishment by going after not only the rebel forces arrayed against him (including the many defectors from his security forces), but after the cities where protests have been most active.

Assad doesn't care about appearances. He is fighting for his regime's survival and that means crushing the ongoing rebellion against his rule. His security forces aren't going to permit humanitarian aid to flow into places like Homs despite the crushing toll a lack of medicine and food has on the civilian populations. They've got nowhere to turn.

Yet, Assad probably doesn't quite realize just how far the opposition has come and that he's likely fighting a losing battle to stay in power. The tighter he grasps that power, the more people rally against his regime. Syrians are realizing just how evil the regime truly is and with the Internet and its myriad communications streams (Twitter, YouTube, blogging, etc.) allows people to get the message out. They are seeing that their fellow countrymen are being slaughtered in places like Homs for merely speaking out against the ongoing violence - let alone against the regime. Far from silencing the opposition, Assad's brutal crackdown is having the opposite effect. The opposition is growing larger and bolder with each passing day and despite the regime's loyalists' advantages in military capabilities, seeing the streets run red with the blood of civilians - including women and children - is enough to convince Syrians that Assad's regime must come to an end.

Watch for yet another round of attempts to convince Assad to take the golden parachute to exile - but those will fall on deaf ears.

UPDATE:
Red Cross efforts to get injured journalists out of Homs, along with the remains of American journalist Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik, have thus far been met with static from Assad's regime. Assad's regime takes no responsibility in the artillery attacks resulting in their deaths and the journalists' injuries, and instead blames the journalists themselves for being in harms way by not partaking in the clown circus of official propaganda channels.

UPDATE:
The Jerusalem Post is reporting that Hamas is backing the rebel opposition groups arrayed against Assad. That follows moves by Hamas leaders over the past several months to find other safe havens besides their longstanding relationship with the Assad leadership in Damascus. It's interesting that they're not only opposing Assad, but are publicly stating their intentions to block Hizbullah and Iran from taking advantage of the situation.

Hamas went public after nearly a year of equivocating as Assad's army, largely led by fellow members of the president's Alawite sect, has crushed mainly Sunni protesters and rebels.

In a Middle East split along sectarian lines between Shi'ite and Sunni Islam, the public abandonment of Assad casts immediate questions over Hamas's future ties with its principal backer Iran, which has stuck by its ally Assad, as well as with Iran's fellow Shi'ite allies in Lebanon's Hezbollah movement.

"I salute all the nations of the Arab Spring and I salute the heroic people of Syria who are striving for freedom, democracy and reform," Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, visiting Egypt from the Gaza Strip, told thousands of Friday worshipers at Cairo's al-Azhar mosque.

"We are marching towards Syria, with millions of martyrs," chanted worshipers at al-Azhar, home to one of the Sunni world's highest seats of learning. "No Hezbollah and no Iran. The Syrian revolution is an Arab revolution."

Not only is Haniyeh turning his back on Assad, but is also spitting in the face of the Iranian regime that has backed the terror group from the outset.

It also raises new questions about whether the fight in Syria may break down along sectarian lines with Hamas and Hizbullah fight amongst each other for primacy to dominate what may come after Assad.

Homs Remains Under Artillery Assault For 20th Day; Assad's Crackdown Continues

The City of Homs has now been under constant artillery barrages and attacks by Bashar al-Assad's security forces for 20 days and there's no sign of any letup. Assad's forces are intensifying their attacks, and the body count continues rising on a daily basis.

The UN no longer keeps track of the casualty figures because their officials can't guarantee their own safety, so casualty figures are derived from news reports (both the official government propaganda type and the opposition Twitter, blog, and satellite report chatter), human rights groups that operate in the country, and the only thing that is certain is that civilians continue being murdered by the regime.

The attacks on Homs are not precision attacks against military targets, but are instead attacks that hit civilians all too frequently. Civilians are the targets, which means that Assad's regime is engaging in crimes against humanity and war crimes in violation of Geneva Conventions and other international law. Even the United Nations Secretary General and other top human rights officials at the UN are cognizant of the criminal acts by the Assad regime.

The report, handed to the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva, was compiled by a panel of three investigators who said that they had not been allowed to enter Syria to conduct their inquiries at first hand but had relied on a total of 369 interviews with victims, witnesses, defectors and other people with “inside knowledge” of the situation. They had also examined photographs, video recordings and satellite imagery to corroborate some witness accounts.

The report was published as Syrian security forces continued their shelling of besieged areas of the central city of Homs for a 20th successive day on Thursday, despite a growing outcry and international calls for the creation of humanitarian corridors to reach the sick, the wounded and the frail.

The newest bombardment, reported by activists, came on the eve of a major international gathering Tunisia to seek a way out of the crisis. Some reports from Homs said government forces in tanks had pressed into contested areas where opponents of the government say hundreds of trapped civilians have died in one of the deadliest campaigns in nearly a year of violent repression by the government of President Assad. The United Nations report seemed likely to add weight to those conclusions, arguing that Syria was now “on the brink” of civil war and “the continuation of the crisis carries the risk of radicalizing the population, deepening inter-communal tensions and eroding the fabric of society.”

The document spoke of torture and killing of civilians.

“The commission received credible and consistent evidence identifying high- and mid-ranking members of the armed forces who ordered their subordinates to shoot at unarmed protesters, kill soldiers who refused to obey such orders, arrest persons without cause, mistreat detained persons and attack civilian neighborhoods with indiscriminate tanks and machine gun fire,” the investigators said.

Yet, the UN is powerless to do anything more than write a strongly worded letter because Russia and China continue to hold a veto threat against any action in the Security Council that might even provide the option to use military action to force Assad to stop his brutal crackdown. That's despite the fact that the recognition of war crimes and crimes against humanity demands that the UN act under the terms of international law, including the Genocide Convention and Geneva Conventions.

There are also accusations by French leader Nicholas Sarkozy that the Syrian military deliberately targeted journalists, including the attacks that killed American journalist Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik.

Wounded protesters brought to hospitals are reportedly being tortured, and children are among those killed.

While Russia and China are the most important backers to Assad's regime, they're not alone. Besides Iran, it appears that Venezuela's Hugo Chavez has decided to throw his support behind Assad and his brutal regime.

UPDATE:
The UN has gone beyond what it has previously state in regards to crimes against humanity and war crimes in Syria to say that the actions are being directed by the highest levels of Assad's government.

"The commission is satisfied that a reliable body of evidence exists that, consistent with other verified circumstances, provides reasonable grounds to believe that particular individuals, including commanding officers and officials at the highest levels of government, bear responsibility for crimes against humanity and other gross human rights violations," the report said.

In other words, these aren't the actions of rogue local security forces run amok but rather the coordinated actions of a government engaging in crimes against their own countrymen.

Assad Accelerating Assault on Homs; Two Journalists Among Those Killed

The situation in Homs continues deteriorating as Bashar al-Assad's forces continuing their assault against the city. Two journalists were among those killed, including American war correspondent Marie Colvin, who works for the British Sunday Times. A Syrian blogger was also among those killed.

Assad is showing himself more than capable of engaging in mass murder and war crimes with his ongoing actions. He's taking a page right out of his father's Hama rules handbook on how to deal with threats to the regime - bomb them into submission.

Hundreds of people have been killed in daily bombardments of Homs by Assad's besieging forces using artillery, rockets and Soviet-built T-72 tanks, stoking fears of Assad subjecting the city to the same devastation as his late father inflicted on the rebellious town of Hama 30 years ago, killing at least 10,000.

With diplomacy to halt Syria's bloodshed at a standstill and Assad's forces intensifying offensives to wipe out rebels, the United States appeared to open the door to eventually arming the Syrian opposition, saying that if a political solution to the crisis was impossible it might have to consider other options.

The Homs district of Baba Amro where the 19 deaths were reported has been under bombardment since February 3, taking the conflict to a new dimension which is bound to dominate "Friends of Syria" talks in Tunis on Friday where U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton meets officials from 70 countries and groups.

In a further sign of worsening carnage in Syria, activists said that troops and militia loyal to Assad captured and shot dead 27 young men on Tuesday in northern villages in the thick of an 11-month-old uprising against his autocratic rule.

Russia, one of Assad's few remaining allies and seen as retaining some leverage over him, said on Wednesday it was seeking safe passage of aid convoys to Syrian civilians trapped in the spreading violence.

Even as Assad's troops murder people opposed to the regime, he's claiming that the constitutional referendum will somehow limit his power. Opposition leaders are calling for a boycott of the referendum, noting that they had nothing to do with the process that led to the proposed constitution and that Assad is using the referendum as a cover to continue his crackdown.

At the same time, in light of the ongoing crackdown and increased hardships on civilians across the country, the Russians are floating a proposal for a nationwide 2-hour ceasefire to allow humanitarian aid to flow to civilians caught in the crossfire. Don't expect much to come from that proposal though it is a recognition that Assad's crackdown against rebel forces is taking an increasing toll on civilians. Russia, China and Iran reaffirmed backing Assad's regime, so they're doing what they can to take the pressure off Assad even as the butcher's bill increases.

Northern Syria in Open Revolt Against Assad's Regime

Since the beginning of the year, the situation in Syria has gone from bad to worse. The death count has accelerated as defections from Assad's security forces have meant that opposition groups are now brimming with former soldiers and are fighting back against Assad's loyalists with sufficient firepower to inflict significant casualties.

Northern Syria is in open revolt against Assad's regime. That's one of the first signs that Assad's losing control over the country and if the opposition forces can consolidate and hold on to the territorial gains, they could gain international recognition in a fashion similar to that when the Libyans deposed Mumar Khadafi. Assad's forces are increasingly stretched thin, which means that areas in the far north of the country are operating semi-autonomously:

Government troops were stretched thin in their effort to control all fronts in the volatile country, while violence raged in the grass-roots anti-government uprising. The revolt has now entered its 12th month and the U.N. General Assembly prepared to take up a symbolic resolution condemning President Bashar al-Assad's brutal crackdown.

Syrian forces shelled the flashpoint city of Homs for a 13th straight day, targeting the opposition stronghold neighborhoods of Baba Amr, Inshaat and Khalidiya, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition activist group.

About 50 people were injured Thursday in the heavy sustained bombardment that commenced around 5 a.m., CNN correspondent Arwa Damon reported from Homs.

In Idlib province in the northwest, people appear to be preparing for the possibility of a military offensive.

"What is astounding here is that the countryside in northern Syria, much of it is in open revolt. This is a rebellion of farmers, of carpenters and of high school teachers," said CNN correspondent Ivan Watson, reporting from the region.
"It does appear that villages and towns in northern Syria have been, basically, out of government control for several months now -- except when government forces have tried to conduct deadly incursions into these towns that are temporary at best."

In southwestern Syria, al-Assad's forces reportedly stormed the village of Sahm al-Golan searching for military defectors who have joined the rebel army or local militias, according to a member of the opposition in the town who asked to be identified only as Abu Issam out of fear of government reprisal. Syrian forces shelled the town and used tanks when it began its assault Wednesday, forcing many residents to flee toward the Jordanian border, Abu Issam said early Thursday.

Syrian forces are again attacking the city of Daraa, which is where the protests first took hold.

China, which continues to thwart action at the United Nations Security Council, has sent an envoy to Damascus, but unless the Chinese government stops blocking action at the United Nations, the diplomatic efforts to force Assad to stop murdering his countrymen will founder. China, along with Russia, oppose military action to stop Assad and believe that the draft resolutions circulating at the Security Council would open the door to military action along the lines of the NATO mission over Libya.

The situation is so bad that UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is warning that Assad's regime may be engaging in crimes against humanity. Things have to be pretty dire for the Secretary General to make that kind of statement.