A blog for all seasons; A blog for one; A blog for all. As the 11th most informative blog on the planet, I have a seared memory of throwing my Time 2006 Man of the Year Award over the railing at Time Warner Center.
Justice. Only Justice Shall Thou Pursue
The fighting in Syria rages on despite the fact that there's supposedly a ceasefire in place between rebel forces arrayed against Bashar al-Assad's security forces.
Bombings are increasingly common. A pair of bombings today killed at least 55 people and injured more than 400 others.
The explosions struck at rush hour in the Al Qazaz neighborhood and tore through a crowded intersection near a military intelligence branch, injuring 372 people, both civilians and members of the military, officials said. The blast was heard and felt throughout the city.
In a statement released by his spokesman, Annan reiterated his call to all parties to adhere to the weeks-old cease-fire. Previous calls for a stop to the violence have gone unheeded as President Bashar Assad's security forces have continued a brutal crackdown on dissent and some opposition fighters have taken up arms again.
The UN has tried to broker a ceasefire deal, but Assad's refused to stop his brutal crackdown against those opposed to his regime.
The pair of blasts were apparently two vehicles loaded with 2,200 of explosives and driven by suicide bombers.
The U.N. plan is most publicly supported by the Russians, who believe there is still a way to mediate an end to the crisis in Syria. The Russians, long-time allies of the Syrian government, have opposed strict U.N. sanctions and calls for foreign intervention.
But a growing number feel the peace plan has failed.
They include Wissam Tarif, who runs the Beirut office of the activist group Avaaz, which does extensive work on Syria. He and others say the Syrian regime is simply not willing to stop the violence, which means it will never be able to reach a negotiated solution.
That's why Tarif calls the U.N. plan a "necessary failure" — meaning that the more the Russians see the regime's violations, the more likely they will be to go along with tougher measures against the Syrian leadership.
"Having said that, it's very important to note that this failure is very expensive and it's by the Syrian people's blood because hundreds continue to be killed in the country," Tarif says.
The Russians have blocked any more stringent actions against Assad, but the US doesn't want to get bogged down in another attempt at nation building coming off the heels of the Iraq and Afghanistan experiences.
This leaves Assad with the ability to crush the rebellion and do so with a free hand since there's little chance that he would see NATO forces prepare the battlefield in the manner that they did with the Libyan civil war.
This is being hailed as a significant breakthrough, and it should be. However, we need to be vigilant that North Korea isn't double dealing - saying one thing to the US all while engaging in clandestine operations or proliferation activities.
The United States said Wednesday North Korea has agreed to suspend nuclear activities and accept a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests, in a breakthrough in negotiations with the secretive communist nation.
The announcement comes little more than two months after the death of longtime ruler Kim Jong Il, and suggests North Korea has met the key U.S. preconditions for restarting multi-nation disarmament-for-aid talks that the North withdrew from in 2009.
State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the North has agreed to allow International Atomic Energy inspectors to verify and monitor the moratorium on uranium enrichment and confirm disablement of its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon.
Her statement says the US will meet with North Korea to finalize details for a proposed package of 240,000 metric tons of food aid.
North Korea issued a similar, although differently worded statement released simultaneously in Pyongyang.
An unidentified spokesman from North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in its statement carried by the state-run news agency that the North agreed to the nuclear moratoriums and the allowance of U.N. inspectors "with a view to maintaining positive atmosphere" for the U.S.-North Korea talks.
The announcement follows talks in Beijing last week between U.S. and North Korean negotiators, the first since negotiations were suspended after Kim's death in December from a heart attack.
Before his death, the U.S. and North Korea were close to such an agreement, which appears to meets U.S. preconditions for restarting the six-nation talks suspended three years ago.
Allowing inspectors to review operations at known nuclear facilities is an improvement, and may mean that the regime under Kim Jong Un is moving away from the militaristic tone set by his father. It may also mean that the regime recognizes just how bad its socio-economic conditions are and that the need for food aid is finally driving the regime to curtail its military programs. The agricultural situation in the country may be even worse than the regime is letting on.
That may be wishful thinking - but if the regime has to begin focusing on improving its agricultural resources so that the nation doesn't starve while curtailing the nuclear and missile programs, then that's a significant accomplishment of the sanctions regime in place.
Really? It's an absolutely laughable statement considering that Syrians continue dying at the hands of his security forces, so it's not like the crackdown actually ended. 25 Syrians died in multiple incidents across the country as President Obama made his strongest statements to date calling for Assad to step down:
At least 15 people were killed in the central governorate of Homs, eight in the port city of Latakia and the eastern town of Deir al-Zour, and one in each of the provinces of Hama and Idlib, Mahmoud Merhi, head of the Arab Organization for Human Rights and Ammar Qurabi of the National Organization for Human Rights in Syria said today. Protesters held evening rallies in Aleppo, Hama and suburbs of the capital, Damascus, they said.
In Washington, Obama said that "for the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside." Citing "ferocious brutality" and "the Assad government's flagrant disrespect for the dignity of the Syrian people," Obama announced sanctions freezing Syrian assets in the U.S., banning the import of Syrian petroleum products and prohibiting U.S. investment in Syria.
Assad will shrug off Obama's statements, just as he has done at every step of the way. He's utilizing the Hama rules to its full effect, and mere words will not force Assad from power.
It will take force, and thus far the opposition groups have not risen up in the way that the Libyans have done.
There's no reason for Assad to consider stepping down because he hasn't experienced the kind of uprising that forced Mubarak from power. His police state has been more thorough and pervasive than Egypt.
The UN is contemplating stepping up sanctions against Bashar al-Assad and Syria, but does anyone think that sanctions are going to stop his brutalization of Syrians, murdering, torturing, and engaging in war crimes and crimes against humanity all because some Syrians have the audacity to question the autocrat's right to govern in a peaceful manner.
Assad keeps trying to claim that the military crackdown is necessary because of terrorists involved in the opposition, but there's no evidence that anyone is actually fighting back against the Syrian security forces that have laid siege against multiple towns and cities throughout the country.
The US has widened its sanctions against Syrian assets, including a bank and telecommunications company. That comes as Assad's security forces raided Homs and killed at least another dozen people.
Hama was razed nearly 30 years ago by Hafez Assad in order to crush an uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood. Now, his son is moving in that same direction, this time against peaceful protesters seeking political and social reforms.
The city was under nearly continuous gunfire since the early hours of the morning, said the Syrian activists, who reported many casualties. They said that residents tried to defend the city by setting up barricades, but that they stood little chance against the military’s armored vehicles and tanks.
“The army is now stationed in Assi Square,” read a post on the Syrian Revolution Facebook page. “The heroic youths of Hama are confronting them and banning them from entering neighborhoods.”
The accounts could not be independently confirmed because Syria has not allowed media to enter the country to report.
Water, electricity and communication lines including Internet services have been cut in Hama and its surrounding villages and towns, according to online posts on social networking sites, and there were reports of many casualties.
Shaam, an online video channel that is sympathetic to protesters, posted a video dated Aug. 3 that showed at least one tank attacking a neighborhood that the narrator said was Hayy al-Hader in Hama; heavy plumes of smoke could be seen rising in the sky.
Assad's crackdown is stirring passions once again throughout the Middle East, but regimes are largely silent - many of whom have not been shy about using force to quell protests against their own ongoing brutal regimes.
Thus far, there's been only words of condemnation and the ongoing imposition or strengthening of sanctions from the UN, EU, US, and various countries. There's been no talk of imposing a no-fly zone or other protective measures to prevent the wholesale slaughter of Syrians at the hands of their despotic leader.
One of the things Assad has done is limit his use of airpower to go after the opposition; it was one of the things that brought NATO in to thwart Libya's Khadafi from attacking the opposition/rebel groups there. Assad is sticking to ground assaults and artillery bombardments to eliminate his opposition.
UPDATE:
Tom Friedman, who coined the term Hama rules, has issued another editorial today, in which he believes that the residents of Syria have declared their own Hama rules to counter the brutality emanating from Assad's regime.
But, this time, the Syrian people are answering with their own Hama Rules, which are quite remarkable. They say: “We know that every time we walk out the door to protest, you will gun us down, without mercy. But we are not afraid anymore, and we will not be powerless anymore. Now, you leaders will be afraid of us. Those are our Hama Rules.”
This is the struggle today across the Arab world — the new Hama Rules versus the old Hama Rules — “I will make you afraid” versus “We are not afraid anymore.”
Good for the people. It is hard to exaggerate how much these Arab regimes wasted the lives of an entire Arab generation, with their foolish wars with Israel and each other and their fraudulent ideologies that masked their naked power grabs and predatory behavior. Nothing good was possible with these leaders. The big question today, though, is this: Is progress possible without them?
That is, once these regimes are shucked off, can the different Arab communities come together as citizens and write social contracts for how to live together without iron-fisted dictators — can they write a positive set of Hama Rules based not on anyone fearing anyone else, but rather on mutual respect, protection of minority and women’s rights and consensual government?
That's the billion dollar question, and thus far the answer is decidedly mixed. Egypt's new era of governance is off to a shaky start even as Mubarak is in the docket (on a hospital cot). Tunisia is muddling by, Yemen remains racked by conflict, and the Saudis and Bahrainis appear to have bought off the opposition buying them some time. Payoffs aren't a substitute for real change.
Social change is coming, and these regimes are resisting that change and it's a test of wills to see which side will prevail.
UPDATE:
The UN Security Council has issued a statement condemning Assad's bloody suppression of protests.
After more than three months of deadlock and silence on the escalating violence in Syria, the council adopted a presidential statement Wednesday afternoon condemning President Bashar Assad's crackdown on anti-government protesters.
The trigger for the council to start negotiations on a text was the intense military assault launched by they Syrian government over the weekend that sent troops and tanks into the besieged city of Hama.
Presidential statements require approval from all 15 council members. Lebanon, a neighbor and close ally of Syria, didn't block adoption of the statement, but it invoked a procedure last used 35 years ago and dissociated itself from the text.
The White House also hardened its stance against Assad on Wednesday, saying the United States viewed him as the cause of instability in the country.
Bashar al-Assad's regime isn't holding back in quelling the opposition to his regime with the use of deadly force.
While countries like the US are mulling sanctions and the UN is considering a harshly worded statement, the regime continues using live ammunition on its citizens protesting against the regime's harsh tactics, which include torture and indefinite detentions of their fellow Syrians. The US doesn't have much in the way of diplomatic or economic ties to the country, so the effects of its sanctions would be quite limited. Sanctions from a country like France would be more significant since the two countries have had a long history since the end of the First World War.
Gunfire continues to ripple across the country, including in Daraa, which was the epicenter of mass protests against the regime.
New sanctions against Iran over its suspect nuclear program that target the country's powerful Revolutionary Guard, ballistic missiles, and nuclear-related investments were approved by the UN Security Council Wednesday.
The resolution imposing a fourth round of sanctions against Iran was approved with 12 "yes" votes, two "no" votes from Brazil and Turkey, and one abstention from Lebanon.
I can understand Turkey's no vote as they have slipped into Iran's sphere of influence and it furthers Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's own Islamist vision for his country, but Brazil's no vote is less clear. Curiously, Lebanon abstained, even with the threat of Iran's proxy Hizbullah looming large over the Lebanese polity.
The text of the draft resolution is here. It specifically expands the sanctions to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and lists other entities and locations that are subject to sanctions.
In the draft resolution, just one scientist was singled out for an asset freeze and travel ban: Javad Rahiqi, 56, the head of the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. The resolution also strengthens the travel ban against 40 officials already blacklisted.
Just one bank is listed: First East Export Bank, which has handled hefty transactions linked to Iran’s military establishment. The United States sought to include more banks, including the Central Bank, but settled for one reference in the introduction saying United Nations member states should “exercise vigilance” in dealing with the Central Bank. China and others argued that singling out banks would unfairly harm the economy.
The list names 23 industrial companies, many of them involved in military contracts or the nuclear industry. Skeptics of the sanctions note that is just a fraction of the Iranian economy, which has been booming.
In addition, 15 companies listed are linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The I.R.G.C., as it is commonly known, is increasingly the military power that runs Iran, and it led the repression against pro-democracy protesters.
The most prominent company, Khatam al-Anbiya Construction, has won billions of dollars in civil and military projects, including a secret nuclear enrichment facility near the holy city of Qum.
Legislation is circulating in Congress, backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, that would punish oil traders and transporters that sell refined gasoline to Iran. While the Islamic Republic is one of the world's leading exporters of crude petroleum, the country lacks the refining capacity to turn an estimated 40% of its crude oil into gasoline. Earlier this year, the country saw gas riots after President Ahmadinejad tried to impose gasoline rationing.
American policy will likely hinge on the results of a Department of Energy study examining the effect of such a sanctions regime on the Iranians and world oil markets. It is a softer policy version of a plan to embargo the Iranian import of refined gasoline. An embargo, however would likely push the price of gasoline in America even higher and would plunge America into an open war with Iran.
Sanctions alone will not get Iran to stop its nuclear program, but if sufficient pressure is brought to bear against the Iranian energy markets, it could force change. The Iranians are far more susceptible to energy prices than many other countries, including the US, which is absorbing the highest prices for oil that the nation has seen.
President Bush ordered new U.S. economic sanctions Tuesday to pressure Sudan’s government to halt the bloodshed in Darfur that the administration has condemned as genocide.
“I promise this to the people of Darfur: the United States will not avert our eyes from a crisis that challenges the conscience of the world,” the president said.
The sanctions target government-run companies involved in Sudan’s oil industry, and three individuals, including a rebel leader suspected of being involved in the violence in Darfur.
“For too long the people of Darfur have suffered at the hands of a government that is complicit in the bombing, murder and rape of innocent civilians,” the president said. “My administration has called these actions by their rightful name: genocide.
“The world has a responsibility to put an end to it,” Bush said.
Unfortunately, most of the rest of the world is unwilling to do the same. The Sudanese government in Khartoum has been complicit in the Darfur genocide and there are foreign countries that are more than willing to look the other way in order to secure oil contracts, including Russia and China. The UN has been incapable of dealing with the situation because those countries do not want to risk their oil deals.
UPDATE: The rest of the world refused to call the situation in Darfur a genocide. Kofi Annan refused to call it genocide, despite the ethnic cleansing and the bloody toll - hundreds of thousands killed and millions displaced. The inaction at the UN only emboldened the Sudanese government to refuse peacekeepers access to the region and stymied humanitarian aid.
