The Rational Irrationalism of North Korea

North Korea keeps ratcheting up the threat index with pronouncements that they're going to unleash nuclear annihilation against the US and South Korea. The threats are definitely crazy, but I think they've been acting as rational irrationalists. What do I mean by this? It means that they're crazy like a fox and have a definite strategy here. They know from past history that crazy gets the goods. Kim Il Song got the West to give humanitarian aid. Kim Jong Il threatened nuclear war and got aid. Now? Kim Jong Un threatens apocalypse and the endgame is to get aid.

Everyone knows the North Korean economy is in shambles. We know it. South Korea knows it. Even the North Koreans know it. They sacked their Prime Minister and replaced him with a guy who was previously sacked for not getting the economy going. The North wouldn't do that unless things were dire.

About the only thing going for the North right now is that they've got nuclear tech and some intermediate range missiles that might work but aren't necessarily accurate. It's enough of a threat though to be taken seriously, which is why the US, South Koreans, and Japanese are moving in theater missile defense systems and orienting their defensive capabilities accordingly. At the same time, the US/SK/Japanese are moving in assets that could deter what could be the next phase of North Korean saber rattling - a small scale provocation such as sinking a South Korean boat, shelling disputed South Korean islands, or threatening South Korean fishermen.

The North has been thoroughly indoctrinated by the Kim clan to consider the US to be equivalent of the Soviets in Red Dawn. Evil that must be thwarted from worldwide supremacy and to protect the honor of the homeland. All that changes is instead of shouting Wolverines!, the North is shouting Juche!

What we take to be defensive action, like moving in assets to the region in response to North claims of nuclear Armageddon is considered a further threat that North Korean leadership considers is justification for their earlier claims.

Now, are the North really so crazy as to light the Korean peninsula aflame, let alone carry out their nuclear threats? If the North doesn't get what it is demanding, would it be really willing to attack the South?

I definitely see the North restarting their shuttered nuclear program, and it also is a bargaining chip that the North could use in essentially shaking down the west for more aid (which the North will spin as winning and tribute to North Korean success).

I don't think they are willing to launch a full scale conflict, but can the South really take that risk? It's places like Seoul that will be on the front line of a North Korean attack given its proximity to the DMZ. The North might be convinced that they could manage the element of surprise and get in a devastating first blow, but it would only be a matter of time before Western technological superiority demolishes the military the North has (and which is largely stuck in the 1960s both with ground and air assets).

Moreover, the Chinese would probably step in to moderate the North's bellicosity before things go wrong for the North. The Chinese don't want a refugee crisis on their border, which is exactly what would happen if the North goes to war. China has trading relations with the South, and an economic hit to the region would hurt the global economy as well.

Is North Korea Contemplating New Nuclear Test As It Readies Missile For Launch

North Korea has been quite busy in the past couple of days with pronouncements about preparing for a test of a new long rang missile. Now, South Korea is warning of possible preparations by the North to conduct a new underground nuclear weapons test. All this comes just months after Kim Jong Un assumed the role of national leader following the death of his father Kim Jong Il. The missile test and potential nuclear test are another sign that Jong Un is following the path laid down by his father - to use nuclear blackmail to obtain still more concessions on humanitarian aid to help feed the nation:

The South Korean intelligence report says it is highly probable that after the long-range rocket launch, North Korea will use the ensuing international condemnation as an excuse to go ahead with the nuclear test in Punggye-ri, the site in the country's northeast where the other two tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009.

The report, which said such a test would be considered a grave provocation, includes satellite images that it claims were filmed recently and show the final stages of a tunnel being dug at the site.

The photos show an unusual pile of earth and sand near the opening of the tunnel, and the report says this pile has been slowly increasing since March.

North Korean state media have not made an announcement regarding plans for a new nuclear test. Two senior U.S. officials said the United States also had reason to believe that the North was planning such an action.

"Once again this shows ...they know how to manipulate the world," said Andrei Lankov of Seoul's Kookmin University.

"If they do a missile launch and in few months a successful nuclear test, especially a uranium based nuclear device, it will send a very strong message to the world. The same message they always want to deliver -- we are here, we are dangerous, unpredictable and it's better to deal with us by giving us monetary and food concessions."

Japan is readying missile defense systems ahead of the North Korean test launch. The North continues to claim that it is a test of a civilian missile system and experts who have seen the missile note that it is configured for civilian purposes, but the missile would provide the North with critical data for use and incorporation in the North's long range missile program. The North has repeated given and/or sold technical data on missile technologies to countries such as Pakistan and Iran, and the North has also been a source of worry about nuclear proliferation.

The missile test is timed to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, Jong Un's grandfather and founder of the North Korean regime.

North Korea Agrees To Moratorium on Nuclear Weapons, Missile Development

This is being hailed as a significant breakthrough, and it should be. However, we need to be vigilant that North Korea isn't double dealing - saying one thing to the US all while engaging in clandestine operations or proliferation activities.

The United States said Wednesday North Korea has agreed to suspend nuclear activities and accept a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests, in a breakthrough in negotiations with the secretive communist nation.

The announcement comes little more than two months after the death of longtime ruler Kim Jong Il, and suggests North Korea has met the key U.S. preconditions for restarting multi-nation disarmament-for-aid talks that the North withdrew from in 2009.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the North has agreed to allow International Atomic Energy inspectors to verify and monitor the moratorium on uranium enrichment and confirm disablement of its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon.

Her statement says the US will meet with North Korea to finalize details for a proposed package of 240,000 metric tons of food aid.

North Korea issued a similar, although differently worded statement released simultaneously in Pyongyang.

An unidentified spokesman from North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in its statement carried by the state-run news agency that the North agreed to the nuclear moratoriums and the allowance of U.N. inspectors "with a view to maintaining positive atmosphere" for the U.S.-North Korea talks.

The announcement follows talks in Beijing last week between U.S. and North Korean negotiators, the first since negotiations were suspended after Kim's death in December from a heart attack.

Before his death, the U.S. and North Korea were close to such an agreement, which appears to meets U.S. preconditions for restarting the six-nation talks suspended three years ago.

Allowing inspectors to review operations at known nuclear facilities is an improvement, and may mean that the regime under Kim Jong Un is moving away from the militaristic tone set by his father. It may also mean that the regime recognizes just how bad its socio-economic conditions are and that the need for food aid is finally driving the regime to curtail its military programs. The agricultural situation in the country may be even worse than the regime is letting on.

That may be wishful thinking - but if the regime has to begin focusing on improving its agricultural resources so that the nation doesn't starve while curtailing the nuclear and missile programs, then that's a significant accomplishment of the sanctions regime in place.

North Korea Culls Population of Insincere Mourners; Will Display Kim Jong Il's Remains

North Korea's regime is sending people it deems to be insincere in mourning the death of Kim Jong-il to labor camps. It's a loyalty test of sorts, and the regime will get to pick and choose who didn't appear sufficiently sad at the loss of the dead dictator.

That ABC News report includes a chipper video accompanying the story that ends with a variation of "...it's up to the North Korean government to know which tears are real or crocodile". Mind you that this is a regime that can't feed its own people and operates a gulag archipelago from which most people never return.

That's the real story here - that the government is going to decide who isn't mourning sufficiently to pass their cult of personality test, and if they fail, they're toast. It's similar to when Kim Il Song died.

Oh, and speaking of Kim Il Song, the North Koreans will display Kim Jong Il's remains alongside his dad (despite the fact that the country is pretty much broke and can't bother to feed itself).

The regime's propagandists are also busy adding superlatives to both Jong-il and the new ruler of North Korea, Kim Jong-un.

For all their glory, most North Koreans suffer horribly from malnutrition and lack of basic human rights. This is a regime that cares little for North Koreans and puts the cult of personality above all else.

North Korea Conducts Kim Jong-il's Funeral

North Korea is mourning the loss of the despot Kim Jong-il and the nation's propagandists are busy with the hagiography of both Jong-il and his son Kim Jong-un, who now leads the country. Western observers have little to go by on what is really going on in the country and who is holding the strings of power, so the funeral is an opportunity for them to remark upon who is and isn't involved in the funeral and their relative importance based on their positioning in the ceremonies.

The extensive funeral was closely watched for signs of shifts in power in the country’s enigmatic leadership. Mr. Kim’s two elder brothers, Kim Jong-nam and Kim Jong-chol, were nowhere to be seen.

Leading the funeral alongside and behind Mr. Kim were a familiar mix of military generals and party secretaries, including elderly stalwarts from the days of Kim Jong-il and his father, the North’s founding president, Kim Il-sung, and younger officials who expanded their influence while playing crucial roles in grooming the son as successor under the father’s tutelage.

Most prominent were the two men whose names seldom fail to pop up when North Korea watchers tried to dissect the palace intrigues in the capital, Pyongyang: Jang Song-taek, Kim Jong-un’s uncle and vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission, and Ri Yong-ho, head of the North Korean military’s general staff.

Mr. Jang’s influence as power broker expanded after Kim Jong-il, his brother-in-law, suffered a stroke in 2008. He appeared committed to extending the Kim family’s rule to the third generation but his own personal ambition remains shrouded in mystery.

Mr. Ri, a relatively unknown figure during most of Kim Jong-il’s rule, rose to prominence in the past two years as the late leader began grooming his son as heir. He is now considered an important backer of Kim Jong-un in the Korean People’s Army, whose support is key to his consolidation of power.

“If anything, the funeral indicates that Jang Song-taek and Ri Yong-ho will be the closest aides to Kim Jong-un,” said Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University.

Less certain was whether and how a potential power game might play out among these aging generals and party secretaries more than twice Mr. Kim’s age. He could become either a forceful leader or a figurehead, depending on whether he can replicate the skills of his father, who kept the elites in line both by stocking their households with foreign luxury goods and by dispatching anyone who fell out of favor to labor camps, analysts said.

On the surface, the funeral appeared to proceed with a totalitarian choreography.

Kim Jong-un walked with one hand on the hearse and the other raised in salute. Neat rows of soldiers in olive-green uniforms stood, hats off and bowing, in front of the Kumsusan mausoleum, where Kim Jong-il’s body had been lying in state since his death was announced on Dec. 19.

Jong-un has clearly assumed power and is prominently featured in the ceremonies. His two brothers are not present. Walking behind Jong-un was Jang Song Thaek, Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law and a vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission who is expected to play a crucial role in helping Kim Jong Un take power.

The North Korean propagandists are busy claiming that the snowfall is the heavens reacting to the death of a heavenly leader. It's also not surprising that there are huge crowds of mourners lining the funeral procession route. The cult of personality surrounding the Kim clan is all-consuming, and anyone who wavered from the party line could find themselves disappeared into the gulag archipelago. There are surely some who do mourn his loss, but this is a country where the regime controls the media, limits access to news from the outside world, and lives in abject poverty.

The World Continues Reacting to Kim Jong-il's Death

China has formally recognized Kim Jong-un as the new leader of North Korea following the death of his father. Expect other countries to follow, and there's no reason for anyone not to accept that Jong-un is the newest dictator in charge of North Korea. The dynastic totalitarian regime begun by Jong-un's grandfather continues, and Jong-il's death allows the regime to reinforce and restate its cult of personality surrounding the Kim clan.

While China has traditionally had close ties and has thwarted efforts to pressure North Korea into giving up its nuclear program, it doesn't have the kind of sway to affect the political situation as much as one might suspect. They're often as much in the dark about the political machinations as everyone else. They're spectators to the death and transition in the regime. China has been keen on keeping the border tightly controlled, because it doesn't want to deal with a potential influx of millions of North Korean refugees streaming across the border. Since that border is far less militarized by the North Koreans, it is often used by those trying to escape the regime to points elsewhere in Asia, including South Korea.

Meanwhile, MSNBC/New York Times wonders whether intel services dropped the ball by not detecting signs of Kim's death.

For South Korean and American intelligence services to have failed to pick up any clues to this momentous development — panicked phone calls between government officials, say, or soldiers massing around Mr. Kim’s train — attests to the secretive nature of North Korea, a country not only at odds with most of the world but also sealed off from it in a way that defies spies or satellites.

Asian and American intelligence services have failed before to pick up significant developments in North Korea. Pyongyang built a sprawling plant to enrich uranium that went undetected for about a year and a half until North Korean officials showed it off in late 2010 to an American nuclear scientist. The North also helped build a complete nuclear reactor in Syria without tipping off Western intelligence.

Will younger Kim's aunt, uncle be N. Korea puppet masters?
As the United States and its allies confront a perilous leadership transition in North Korea — a failed state with nuclear weapons — the closed nature of the country will greatly complicate their calculations. With little information about Mr. Kim’s son and successor, Kim Jong-un, and even less insight into the palace intrigue in Pyongyang, the North’s capital, much of their response will necessarily be guesswork.

The fact is that the North Korean regime is so insular that it is nearly impossible to divine its intentions or decision making processes because so little is communicated (telecommunications in general in North Korea is highly limited so there isn't much in the way of chatter that could be intercepted) and human intelligence assets are also constrained by the very nature of the regime.

North Korean leaders want to perpetuate this notion and secretive nature because so much of their power is derived from the inability of others to understand what's going on in the country - including North Koreans who are constrained from knowing anything other than what the regime deems necessary.

Indeed, news of the death was kept from North Koreans for 48 hours, likely to insure the handover of power to Kim's son. There are even questions about what will happen to Jong-il's remains; some question whether he'll be embalmed and put on display next to his father, or buried simply. Considering the cult of personality surrounding the Kim clan, expect the regime to spend whatever it takes to display his remains, even if the impoverished country remains on the verge of famine and can't afford extravagances such as the multimillion dollar costs associated with such displays.

For the moment, his remains are lying in repose in Pyongyang. North Korean media handlers are pushing the propaganda about Jong-un, noting his divine origins in a fashion that mimics the cult of personality established around his father and grandfather.

Death of a Despotic Dictator - Kim Jong-il Dead at 69

North Koreans have not experienced anything other than a dynastic dictatorship since before the Korean War. The cult of personality that surrounds the Kim family is all-pervasive and thorough coopts and corrupts the worldview of North Koreans.

So, when Kim Jong Il died yesterday, supposedly of a heart attack while on a train carrying out inspections of the country a couple of days ago (but publicly acknowledged today), the North Korean media goes through the ritualized process of openly weeping for the dead dictator and praying for his successor, his son Kim Jong-un.

The outpouring of grief around North Korea is highly stylized and is an outgrowth of the cult of personality, but it's also a way of showing loyalty to the regime; if someone doesn't show sufficient amount of grief in these public displays, they may wonder whether someone will snitch on them or the North Korean security apparatus will deal with them. These displays are not necessarily genuine.

The North had kept news of the death of its leader secret for roughly two days, perhaps a sign that the leadership was struggling to position itself for what many believe could be a particularly perilous transition.

A few hours after the announcement, the ruling Workers’ Party and other state institutions released a joint statement suggesting Mr. Kim’s chosen successor, his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, was in charge.

The statement called the son "the great successor to the revolution" and "the eminent leader of the military and the people." It was the first time North Korea referred to the son as "leader" since his ailing father pulled him out of obscurity in September last year and made him a four-star general and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party.

The Workers’ Party said that “Under the leadership of our comrade Kim Jong-un, we have to turn sadness into strength and courage, and overcome today’s difficulties.”

K.C.N.A., the official news agency, said North Korean soldiers and citizens were swearing allegiance to Kim Jong-un. People on the streets of Pyongyang broke into tears as they learned of Mr. Kim’s death, The Associated Press reported from Pyongyang.

Kim Jong-un is believed to be in his late 20s and his youth and relative inexperience could make him vulnerable to power struggles; some analysts have questioned the depth of the military’s support for him.

Kim Jong-il’s death came after a long illness, dating to 2008, that American intelligence agencies believed involved some form of a stroke. The North has indicated he was 69 years old, but scholars have said he could have been a year older.

Jong Il's death throws negotiations about North Korea's nuclear program into limbo. North Koreans and the West were negotiating food shipments as well, since North Korea can't produce anywhere near the amount of food necessary to support itself. The regime focuses its efforts on its military infrastructure and uses military weapons and technology sales to maintain its power, at the expense of the people who are in dire straits.

South Korean's military was put on high alert considering the possibility of the North Korean military using this as an opportunity to assert itself as well as the possibility that North Koreans may attempt to flee the country en masse.

Jong-il's greatest achievement was not self-sufficiency of food production, but the ability to detonate two crude nuclear devices in underground tests in 2009. While one is considered a fizzle, the two tests taken together show that the North Koreans have demonstrated nuclear weapons capabilities and that has led to further international sanctions and isolated the regime.

While some analysts are wondering whether Jong-il was a master manipulator or a madmad, the answer is that he was both. One can be a manipulator and a madmad at the same time. The one guiding principle for the regime is that maintaining power was critical and absolute. There was no tolerance of dissent and everyone in the country had to claim fealty to Jong-il. Dissenters were treated harshly - disappearing into the North Korean gulag archipelago of labor camps and prisons. North Koreans also get a wildly distorted worldview as the regime tightly controls all media access, limiting telecommunications and Internet connectivity.

So what do we know about Jong-un? That's the trillion dollar question, and the answer isn't much:

Before his death, Kim Jong Il had been grooming his third and youngest son as his successor. Kim Jong Eun studied for a time in Switzerland at a German-speaking high school in Liebefeld, a suburb of the Swiss capital, Bern. Former classmates remember a shy but determined boy obsessed with American basketball and expensive sports shoes. They say he spoke passable German and made some local friends but was monitored closely by staff members s from the North Korean Embassy in Bern.

He vanished in the middle of the school year in 2000, apparently to return to Pyongyang, and had not been seen in public since until he emerged at his father’s heir apparent last year. A campaign of hagiographic propaganda hailed him as the “Dear Young General,” but it is unclear how much support he has within the armed forces or the ruling party, both of which are dominated by far older men. His mother, a former dancer, died in 2004.

UPDATE:
A classic satire of Kim, courtesy of Team America's madcap duo, Matt Stone and Trey Parker:




UPDATE:
For anyone wondering just how bad things are in North Korea, look no further than the satellite imagery showing the utter lack of any nighttime activity in North Korea. There's only a modicum of lighting around the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, but not much else.

That's compared to the ribbons of light around Seoul and throughout much of South Korea, Japan, Thailand, and China, where cities are joined together by highways and towns at regular intervals.

Kim Jong Un To Follow Father as North Korean Ruler

North Korea's Hermit Kingdom will remain in family control. Kim Jong-un will follow his father as leader of the impoverished country. Expect him to follow his father's path on pursuing nuclear weapons, nuclear proliferation, and exporting weapons to anyone imaginable to source revenues for a country that can' even feed itself without foreign assistance.

Chinese and South Korean Intel Sources Say Kim Il Jung Has Pancreatic Cancer

Various reports over the past couple of years have noted that North Korean strongman Kim Il Jung has been in pretty bad health. It's been suggested that he's been recovering from a stroke. His most recent appearance showed Kim with a frail appearance.

The latest report suggests that he has pancreatic cancer.

Mr. Kim’s health is one of the most closely guarded secrets in the reclusive communist state of North Korea. Mr. Kim, 67, was widely thought to have suffered a stroke last year, but there has never been official confirmation.

He looked gaunt during a public appearance last Wednesday at a memorial for his father, the founder of North Korea, Kim Il-sung.

The YTN account did not explain how the sources for its information learned about the pancreatic cancer diagnosis. But if Mr. Kim does have pancreatic cancer, it is likely to mean he could only have months to live, perhaps less. The disease is one of the most hard to detect in its early stages and has one of the highest fatality rates.

Such a diagnosis would also make questions about the succession process in North Korea, and control of its nuclear weapons program, far more urgent.

The North conducted its second nuclear test on May 25. The United Nations responded with toughened sanctions aimed at cutting off the impoverished state’s lucrative arms trade and one of its few sources of hard cash.

There is still the question of who will succeed him, and while signs point to one of his sons, it's not a sure thing.

Kim Picks North Korean Successor

Of course, it stays in the family. The surprise is that he chose his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, who is age 26.

Kim Jong-un is the third son of Kim Jong Il, the "Dear Leader" who suffered a stroke last summer and who has since appeared thin and frail. He is the grandson of the late Kim Il Sung, the "Great Leader" and founding dictator of North Korea.

If Kim Jong-un does become the new leader -- and there are analysts who doubt the decision is final -- this second consecutive father-to-son hand off would be unique among nations that call themselves communist. There was no indication, however, that Kim Jong Il would be handing over power any time soon.

Kim Jong-un attended the International School of Berne, which is about 15 minutes outside the Swiss capital and a few hundred yards from the North Korean embassy. While Kim was at the English-language school, which has about 280 students from 40 countries, he befriended the children of American diplomats and learned French and German, according to the Swiss weekly, L'Hebdo.

The North Korean regime may practice communism, but it is a totalitarian dictatorship. It is also a cult of personality, where all power is centered on the leader. Kim Il Sung founded this regime, and modeled it after his own personality, accumulating the power and his word was final. When he died, his son assumed the mantle, and Kim Jong Il has ruled with an iron fist ever since, and has greatly expanded the regime's military capabilities, including missile technologies and nuclear technologies. That came at a terrible price, as the country has been repeatedly hit with famine and an inability to feed itself or provide power for its inhabitants.

While Jong may have had the Western influences, it remains to be seen whether he carries on his family's disastrous legacy or charts a new path. Even more important, it remains to be seen whether the military follows along with Kim's wishes and allows his son to take power.

I suspect that the past few weeks of missile tests and nuclear test were a way to prepare the diplomatic front for the new leadership. By repeatedly testing the West and the US in specific, North Korea was trying to see what it could get away with without incurring any actual penalties. Claiming the 1953 armistice was at an end is further evidence that the regime wants to see what it can get away with.