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Justice. Only Justice Shall Thou Pursue
North Korea has been quite busy in the past couple of days with pronouncements about preparing for a test of a new long rang missile. Now, South Korea is warning of possible preparations by the North to conduct a new underground nuclear weapons test. All this comes just months after Kim Jong Un assumed the role of national leader following the death of his father Kim Jong Il. The missile test and potential nuclear test are another sign that Jong Un is following the path laid down by his father - to use nuclear blackmail to obtain still more concessions on humanitarian aid to help feed the nation:
The South Korean intelligence report says it is highly probable that after the long-range rocket launch, North Korea will use the ensuing international condemnation as an excuse to go ahead with the nuclear test in Punggye-ri, the site in the country's northeast where the other two tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009.
The report, which said such a test would be considered a grave provocation, includes satellite images that it claims were filmed recently and show the final stages of a tunnel being dug at the site.
The photos show an unusual pile of earth and sand near the opening of the tunnel, and the report says this pile has been slowly increasing since March.
North Korean state media have not made an announcement regarding plans for a new nuclear test. Two senior U.S. officials said the United States also had reason to believe that the North was planning such an action.
"Once again this shows ...they know how to manipulate the world," said Andrei Lankov of Seoul's Kookmin University.
"If they do a missile launch and in few months a successful nuclear test, especially a uranium based nuclear device, it will send a very strong message to the world. The same message they always want to deliver -- we are here, we are dangerous, unpredictable and it's better to deal with us by giving us monetary and food concessions."
Japan is readying missile defense systems ahead of the North Korean test launch. The North continues to claim that it is a test of a civilian missile system and experts who have seen the missile note that it is configured for civilian purposes, but the missile would provide the North with critical data for use and incorporation in the North's long range missile program. The North has repeated given and/or sold technical data on missile technologies to countries such as Pakistan and Iran, and the North has also been a source of worry about nuclear proliferation.
The missile test is timed to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, Jong Un's grandfather and founder of the North Korean regime.
That ABC News report includes a chipper video accompanying the story that ends with a variation of "...it's up to the North Korean government to know which tears are real or crocodile". Mind you that this is a regime that can't feed its own people and operates a gulag archipelago from which most people never return.
That's the real story here - that the government is going to decide who isn't mourning sufficiently to pass their cult of personality test, and if they fail, they're toast. It's similar to when Kim Il Song died.
The regime's propagandists are also busy adding superlatives to both Jong-il and the new ruler of North Korea, Kim Jong-un.
For all their glory, most North Koreans suffer horribly from malnutrition and lack of basic human rights. This is a regime that cares little for North Koreans and puts the cult of personality above all else.
North Korea is mourning the loss of the despot Kim Jong-il and the nation's propagandists are busy with the hagiography of both Jong-il and his son Kim Jong-un, who now leads the country. Western observers have little to go by on what is really going on in the country and who is holding the strings of power, so the funeral is an opportunity for them to remark upon who is and isn't involved in the funeral and their relative importance based on their positioning in the ceremonies.
The extensive funeral was closely watched for signs of shifts in power in the country’s enigmatic leadership. Mr. Kim’s two elder brothers, Kim Jong-nam and Kim Jong-chol, were nowhere to be seen.
Leading the funeral alongside and behind Mr. Kim were a familiar mix of military generals and party secretaries, including elderly stalwarts from the days of Kim Jong-il and his father, the North’s founding president, Kim Il-sung, and younger officials who expanded their influence while playing crucial roles in grooming the son as successor under the father’s tutelage.
Most prominent were the two men whose names seldom fail to pop up when North Korea watchers tried to dissect the palace intrigues in the capital, Pyongyang: Jang Song-taek, Kim Jong-un’s uncle and vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission, and Ri Yong-ho, head of the North Korean military’s general staff.
Mr. Jang’s influence as power broker expanded after Kim Jong-il, his brother-in-law, suffered a stroke in 2008. He appeared committed to extending the Kim family’s rule to the third generation but his own personal ambition remains shrouded in mystery.
Mr. Ri, a relatively unknown figure during most of Kim Jong-il’s rule, rose to prominence in the past two years as the late leader began grooming his son as heir. He is now considered an important backer of Kim Jong-un in the Korean People’s Army, whose support is key to his consolidation of power.
“If anything, the funeral indicates that Jang Song-taek and Ri Yong-ho will be the closest aides to Kim Jong-un,” said Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University.
Less certain was whether and how a potential power game might play out among these aging generals and party secretaries more than twice Mr. Kim’s age. He could become either a forceful leader or a figurehead, depending on whether he can replicate the skills of his father, who kept the elites in line both by stocking their households with foreign luxury goods and by dispatching anyone who fell out of favor to labor camps, analysts said.
On the surface, the funeral appeared to proceed with a totalitarian choreography.
Kim Jong-un walked with one hand on the hearse and the other raised in salute. Neat rows of soldiers in olive-green uniforms stood, hats off and bowing, in front of the Kumsusan mausoleum, where Kim Jong-il’s body had been lying in state since his death was announced on Dec. 19.
Jong-un has clearly assumed power and is prominently featured in the ceremonies. His two brothers are not present. Walking behind Jong-un was Jang Song Thaek, Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law and a vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission who is expected to play a crucial role in helping Kim Jong Un take power.
The North Korean propagandists are busy claiming that the snowfall is the heavens reacting to the death of a heavenly leader. It's also not surprising that there are huge crowds of mourners lining the funeral procession route. The cult of personality surrounding the Kim clan is all-consuming, and anyone who wavered from the party line could find themselves disappeared into the gulag archipelago. There are surely some who do mourn his loss, but this is a country where the regime controls the media, limits access to news from the outside world, and lives in abject poverty.
China has formally recognized Kim Jong-un as the new leader of North Korea following the death of his father. Expect other countries to follow, and there's no reason for anyone not to accept that Jong-un is the newest dictator in charge of North Korea. The dynastic totalitarian regime begun by Jong-un's grandfather continues, and Jong-il's death allows the regime to reinforce and restate its cult of personality surrounding the Kim clan.
While China has traditionally had close ties and has thwarted efforts to pressure North Korea into giving up its nuclear program, it doesn't have the kind of sway to affect the political situation as much as one might suspect. They're often as much in the dark about the political machinations as everyone else. They're spectators to the death and transition in the regime. China has been keen on keeping the border tightly controlled, because it doesn't want to deal with a potential influx of millions of North Korean refugees streaming across the border. Since that border is far less militarized by the North Koreans, it is often used by those trying to escape the regime to points elsewhere in Asia, including South Korea.
For South Korean and American intelligence services to have failed to pick up any clues to this momentous development — panicked phone calls between government officials, say, or soldiers massing around Mr. Kim’s train — attests to the secretive nature of North Korea, a country not only at odds with most of the world but also sealed off from it in a way that defies spies or satellites.
Asian and American intelligence services have failed before to pick up significant developments in North Korea. Pyongyang built a sprawling plant to enrich uranium that went undetected for about a year and a half until North Korean officials showed it off in late 2010 to an American nuclear scientist. The North also helped build a complete nuclear reactor in Syria without tipping off Western intelligence.
Will younger Kim's aunt, uncle be N. Korea puppet masters?
As the United States and its allies confront a perilous leadership transition in North Korea — a failed state with nuclear weapons — the closed nature of the country will greatly complicate their calculations. With little information about Mr. Kim’s son and successor, Kim Jong-un, and even less insight into the palace intrigue in Pyongyang, the North’s capital, much of their response will necessarily be guesswork.
The fact is that the North Korean regime is so insular that it is nearly impossible to divine its intentions or decision making processes because so little is communicated (telecommunications in general in North Korea is highly limited so there isn't much in the way of chatter that could be intercepted) and human intelligence assets are also constrained by the very nature of the regime.
North Korean leaders want to perpetuate this notion and secretive nature because so much of their power is derived from the inability of others to understand what's going on in the country - including North Koreans who are constrained from knowing anything other than what the regime deems necessary.
Indeed, news of the death was kept from North Koreans for 48 hours, likely to insure the handover of power to Kim's son. There are even questions about what will happen to Jong-il's remains; some question whether he'll be embalmed and put on display next to his father, or buried simply. Considering the cult of personality surrounding the Kim clan, expect the regime to spend whatever it takes to display his remains, even if the impoverished country remains on the verge of famine and can't afford extravagances such as the multimillion dollar costs associated with such displays.
For the moment, his remains are lying in repose in Pyongyang. North Korean media handlers are pushing the propaganda about Jong-un, noting his divine origins in a fashion that mimics the cult of personality established around his father and grandfather.
North Koreans have not experienced anything other than a dynastic dictatorship since before the Korean War. The cult of personality that surrounds the Kim family is all-pervasive and thorough coopts and corrupts the worldview of North Koreans.
So, when Kim Jong Il died yesterday, supposedly of a heart attack while on a train carrying out inspections of the country a couple of days ago (but publicly acknowledged today), the North Korean media goes through the ritualized process of openly weeping for the dead dictator and praying for his successor, his son Kim Jong-un.
The outpouring of grief around North Korea is highly stylized and is an outgrowth of the cult of personality, but it's also a way of showing loyalty to the regime; if someone doesn't show sufficient amount of grief in these public displays, they may wonder whether someone will snitch on them or the North Korean security apparatus will deal with them. These displays are not necessarily genuine.
The North had kept news of the death of its leader secret for roughly two days, perhaps a sign that the leadership was struggling to position itself for what many believe could be a particularly perilous transition.
A few hours after the announcement, the ruling Workers’ Party and other state institutions released a joint statement suggesting Mr. Kim’s chosen successor, his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, was in charge.
The statement called the son "the great successor to the revolution" and "the eminent leader of the military and the people." It was the first time North Korea referred to the son as "leader" since his ailing father pulled him out of obscurity in September last year and made him a four-star general and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party.
The Workers’ Party said that “Under the leadership of our comrade Kim Jong-un, we have to turn sadness into strength and courage, and overcome today’s difficulties.”
K.C.N.A., the official news agency, said North Korean soldiers and citizens were swearing allegiance to Kim Jong-un. People on the streets of Pyongyang broke into tears as they learned of Mr. Kim’s death, The Associated Press reported from Pyongyang.
Kim Jong-un is believed to be in his late 20s and his youth and relative inexperience could make him vulnerable to power struggles; some analysts have questioned the depth of the military’s support for him.
Kim Jong-il’s death came after a long illness, dating to 2008, that American intelligence agencies believed involved some form of a stroke. The North has indicated he was 69 years old, but scholars have said he could have been a year older.
Jong Il's death throws negotiations about North Korea's nuclear program into limbo. North Koreans and the West were negotiating food shipments as well, since North Korea can't produce anywhere near the amount of food necessary to support itself. The regime focuses its efforts on its military infrastructure and uses military weapons and technology sales to maintain its power, at the expense of the people who are in dire straits.
South Korean's military was put on high alert considering the possibility of the North Korean military using this as an opportunity to assert itself as well as the possibility that North Koreans may attempt to flee the country en masse.
Jong-il's greatest achievement was not self-sufficiency of food production, but the ability to detonate two crude nuclear devices in underground tests in 2009. While one is considered a fizzle, the two tests taken together show that the North Koreans have demonstrated nuclear weapons capabilities and that has led to further international sanctions and isolated the regime.
While some analysts are wondering whether Jong-il was a master manipulator or a madmad, the answer is that he was both. One can be a manipulator and a madmad at the same time. The one guiding principle for the regime is that maintaining power was critical and absolute. There was no tolerance of dissent and everyone in the country had to claim fealty to Jong-il. Dissenters were treated harshly - disappearing into the North Korean gulag archipelago of labor camps and prisons. North Koreans also get a wildly distorted worldview as the regime tightly controls all media access, limiting telecommunications and Internet connectivity.
Before his death, Kim Jong Il had been grooming his third and youngest son as his successor. Kim Jong Eun studied for a time in Switzerland at a German-speaking high school in Liebefeld, a suburb of the Swiss capital, Bern. Former classmates remember a shy but determined boy obsessed with American basketball and expensive sports shoes. They say he spoke passable German and made some local friends but was monitored closely by staff members s from the North Korean Embassy in Bern.
He vanished in the middle of the school year in 2000, apparently to return to Pyongyang, and had not been seen in public since until he emerged at his father’s heir apparent last year. A campaign of hagiographic propaganda hailed him as the “Dear Young General,” but it is unclear how much support he has within the armed forces or the ruling party, both of which are dominated by far older men. His mother, a former dancer, died in 2004.
UPDATE:
A classic satire of Kim, courtesy of Team America's madcap duo, Matt Stone and Trey Parker:
That's compared to the ribbons of light around Seoul and throughout much of South Korea, Japan, Thailand, and China, where cities are joined together by highways and towns at regular intervals.
North Korea's Hermit Kingdom will remain in family control. Kim Jong-un will follow his father as leader of the impoverished country. Expect him to follow his father's path on pursuing nuclear weapons, nuclear proliferation, and exporting weapons to anyone imaginable to source revenues for a country that can' even feed itself without foreign assistance.
Former President Bill Clinton is in North Korea, hoping to get the North Korean dictator Kim Il Jung to release two Americans, Euna Lee and Laura Ling, from prison. Both were tried and convicted on trumped up charges, and now the former President is giving Kim the attention he craves.
What is Clinton going to give North Korea in exchange for the release of the two Americans?
Clinton "courteously conveyed a verbal message" to Kim from President Obama, North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported. But White House spokesman Robert Gibbs denied that Clinton was carrying any message from the Obama administration.
Kim and Clinton had "an exhaustive conversation" that included "a wide-ranging exchange of views on the matters of common concern," KCNA reported.
Earlier in the day, Gibbs confirmed Clinton was on a "solely private mission to secure the release of two Americans," but gave little detail on his itinerary .
"We do not want to jeopardize the success of former President Clinton's mission," Gibbs said.
KCNA did not disclose the purpose of the visit in its three-line dispatch. However a source with detailed knowledge of Clinton's movements told CNN late Monday that he was going to seek the release of Laura Ling and Euna Lee, both reporters for California-based Current TV, a media venture launched by Clinton's Vice President Al Gore.
Yang Hyong Sop, the vice president of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly, and Kim Kye Gwan, the vice foreign minister, met Clinton, KCNA reported.
Lee and Ling were arrested while reporting on the border between North Korea and China and sentenced in June to 12 years in prison on charges of entering the country illegally to conduct a smear campaign.
North Korea needs time and space to work out the kinks in its nuclear weapons and missile programs. They need energy and food from outside North Korea because without such humanitarian aid, mass starvation and death would be all too common.
North Korea's regime oversees a vast gulag archipelago where political prisoners go to die. It is an evil regime, and having Former President Clinton engage in such high level talks lends far too much prestige to this dictatorship.
While securing the release of Ling and Lee would be great, I fear that the price will be far too steep for the US, South Koreans, and the long tormented North Korean people who live under the ruthless dictatorship for all too long.
UPDATE: Reports indicate that the North Korean regime has issued pardons for Ling and Lee. I wonder what the US is giving up in return. There's always something in the bargain. North Korea plays the game better than most and knows how to maximize its interests. What will the US be forced to pay down the road? Increased humanitarian aid that enables the regime to spend more on its military budget? Holding back on missile defense systems operable in the region? Cash?
I suspect that the price isn't going to be cheap. After all, that's why regimes such as North Korea act as they do. They know they can get away with it.
Various reports over the past couple of years have noted that North Korean strongman Kim Il Jung has been in pretty bad health. It's been suggested that he's been recovering from a stroke. His most recent appearance showed Kim with a frail appearance.
Mr. Kim’s health is one of the most closely guarded secrets in the reclusive communist state of North Korea. Mr. Kim, 67, was widely thought to have suffered a stroke last year, but there has never been official confirmation.
He looked gaunt during a public appearance last Wednesday at a memorial for his father, the founder of North Korea, Kim Il-sung.
The YTN account did not explain how the sources for its information learned about the pancreatic cancer diagnosis. But if Mr. Kim does have pancreatic cancer, it is likely to mean he could only have months to live, perhaps less. The disease is one of the most hard to detect in its early stages and has one of the highest fatality rates.
Such a diagnosis would also make questions about the succession process in North Korea, and control of its nuclear weapons program, far more urgent.
The North conducted its second nuclear test on May 25. The United Nations responded with toughened sanctions aimed at cutting off the impoverished state’s lucrative arms trade and one of its few sources of hard cash.
There is still the question of who will succeed him, and while signs point to one of his sons, it's not a sure thing.
You have to hand it to the North Koreans. They certainly know how to throw a tantrum when people's attentions are cast elsewhere. The North Koreans had been warning that they would fire missiles in the direction of Hawaii, and while they did fire seven missiles, none were long range missiles with the capacity to hit Hawaii.
The launches, which came two days after North Korea fired four short-range cruise missiles, will likely further escalate tensions in the region as the U.S. tries to muster support for tough enforcement of the latest U.N. Security Council resolution imposed on the communist regime for its May nuclear test.
A senior State Department official told FOX News there is "no reason to doubt these reports we're all seeing."
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said three missiles were fired early Saturday, a fourth around noon and three more in the afternoon. The Defense Ministry said that the missiles were ballistic and are believed to have flown more than 250 miles.
"Our military is fully ready to counter any North Korean threats and provocations based on strong South Korea-U.S. combined defense posture," the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted military officials as saying the missiles appeared to be a type of Scud missile. North Korea's Scuds are considered short-range, the South's military said.
All of the missile launches are in violation of UN Security Council resolutions, but as we've repeatedly seen, North Korea couldn't care less about the UN or resolutions. They seek the rest of the world as weak and incapable of mounting a credible response.
Of course, it stays in the family. The surprise is that he chose his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, who is age 26.
Kim Jong-un is the third son of Kim Jong Il, the "Dear Leader" who suffered a stroke last summer and who has since appeared thin and frail. He is the grandson of the late Kim Il Sung, the "Great Leader" and founding dictator of North Korea.
If Kim Jong-un does become the new leader -- and there are analysts who doubt the decision is final -- this second consecutive father-to-son hand off would be unique among nations that call themselves communist. There was no indication, however, that Kim Jong Il would be handing over power any time soon.
Kim Jong-un attended the International School of Berne, which is about 15 minutes outside the Swiss capital and a few hundred yards from the North Korean embassy. While Kim was at the English-language school, which has about 280 students from 40 countries, he befriended the children of American diplomats and learned French and German, according to the Swiss weekly, L'Hebdo.
The North Korean regime may practice communism, but it is a totalitarian dictatorship. It is also a cult of personality, where all power is centered on the leader. Kim Il Sung founded this regime, and modeled it after his own personality, accumulating the power and his word was final. When he died, his son assumed the mantle, and Kim Jong Il has ruled with an iron fist ever since, and has greatly expanded the regime's military capabilities, including missile technologies and nuclear technologies. That came at a terrible price, as the country has been repeatedly hit with famine and an inability to feed itself or provide power for its inhabitants.
While Jong may have had the Western influences, it remains to be seen whether he carries on his family's disastrous legacy or charts a new path. Even more important, it remains to be seen whether the military follows along with Kim's wishes and allows his son to take power.
I suspect that the past few weeks of missile tests and nuclear test were a way to prepare the diplomatic front for the new leadership. By repeatedly testing the West and the US in specific, North Korea was trying to see what it could get away with without incurring any actual penalties. Claiming the 1953 armistice was at an end is further evidence that the regime wants to see what it can get away with.
President Obama’s national security adviser on Wednesday said that North Korea’s recent nuclear detonation and missile tests are not “an imminent threat” to the safety and security of the United States.
Retired Marine Corps Gen. James Jones, in his first speech on the administration’s approach to national security, said that the “imminent threat” posed by North Korea is that of the proliferation of nuclear technologies to other countries and terrorist organizations.
North Korea still has “a long way” to “weaponize” and work on the delivery of its nuclear missiles before they pose a threat to U.S. security, Jones said in a discussion hosted by the Atlantic Council.
“Nothing that the North Koreans did surprised us,” Jones said. “We knew that they were going to do this, they said so, so no reason not to believe them.”
But the Obama administration is in a tough position with regards to North Korea and in the coming weeks administration officials will try to reach a “global consensus” on how to handle North Korea, Jones indicated. Two key players on the issue, Russia and China, both showed a much harder line against North Korea’s most recent nuclear tests.
One of the crucial conclusions drawn after North Korea’s tests early this week is that there is a growing consensus that states such as North Korea “should not be permitted” to have those nuclear capabilities, Jones said. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions will be on the list of discussion for Obama’s visit to Russia in July, Jones said.
Meanwhile, China’s foreign ministry this week said the country “resolutely opposes” North Korea’s nuclear test. China agreed with the U.S., Japan and Russia to work toward a U.N. resolution censuring North Korea for its nuclear test and missile launches.
I can only assume that the Obama Administration is preferring to ignore not only that North Korea successfully tested a nuclear weapon and launched multiple missiles in the past week, but that they've repudiated the 1953 cease fire agreement, which means that North Korea considers that they are at a state of war with South Korea.
Another possibility is that the Administration is hoping that Russia or China take the lead, particularly since the Chinese may have more influence over North Korea than anyone else. The problem is that the test appears to have taken China by just as much surprise as everyone else and they may no longer be in a position to influence Kim.
The shooting hasn't started, but the verbal jousting continues by the North, which sees the Administration's response as feckless and weak. The North will continue making provocative statements and pushing its own agenda at the expense of South Korea and the US. Ignoring the problem isn't going to make it go away.
How long before they weaponize the delivery of a nuclear weapon? No one quite knows for sure, and they could conceivably decide to stuff one into a shipping container rather than on top of a warhead, even as the North continues working to develop that precise kind of technology.
The North wants to influence the outcome of talks with South Korea - that include an endgame of reunification, and the military overtures are a scare tactic to win concessions. It might even work, given that the Seoul is within artillery range of the North's guns.
The "Watchcon" alert was raised to its second-highest level on Thursday, a government spokeswoman told CNN.
The last time the joint forces raised the surveillance alert was after North Korea's last nuclear test in 2006, according to South Korea's Yonhap News Agency.
The separate five-stage combat alert level, known as "Defcon," has not changed and remains at stage 4, South Korean defense spokesman Won Tae-jae said at Thursday's briefing, according to Yonhap.
"Additional intelligence assets, including personnel, will be deployed while reconnaissance operations over North Korea will increase," Won said, according to Yonhap. He declined to give specific details, the news agency said.
How big a threat is North Korea? Well, the threat is that he could drop a nuke on any major city and that city is pretty much vaporized. What exactly would South Korea or Japan or the US do in return? North Korea doesn't exactly have a robust infrastructure to attack. There's little deterring North Korea from attacking other than Kim's desire to remain in power for as long as possible.
Kim is using the threat of nuclear annihilation to extort concessions out of the Six Party talks (US, Russia, China, Japan, and South Korea).
The North could also use the threat of an attack on the US to make the US balk at backing Japan and/or South Korea in defending their interests. It would be a divide and conquer approach, which leaves Kim in a stronger position than he deserves.
“The Korean People’s Army will not be bound to the Armistice Agreement any longer,” the official Korean Central News Agency said in a statement today. Any attempt to inspect North Korean vessels will be countered with “prompt and strong military strikes.” South Korea’s military said it will “deal sternly with any provocation” from the North.
South Korean President Lee Myung Bak ordered his government to take “calm” measures on the threats, his office said in a statement today. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Takeo Kawamura, echoed those remarks and called on North Korea to “refrain from taking actions that would elevate tensions in Asia.”
The threats are the strongest since North Korea tested a nuclear weapon on May 25, drawing international condemnation and the prospect of increased sanctions against the communist nation. South Korea dispatched a warship to its maritime border and is prepared to deploy aircraft, Yonhap News reported, citing military officials it didn’t identify.
“This rapid-fire provocation indicates a more aggressive shift in the Kim Jong Il regime,” said Ryoo Kihl Jae, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. “Kim is obviously using a strategy of maximum force.”
Why wouldn't Kim take the strategy of maximum force. No one is standing in his way and restraint is seen as weakness to be exploited. The UN is incapable of acting to stop North Korea, despite multiple resolutions designed to do just that. The IAEA was an abject failure to stop North Korea's nuclear program, which has been restarted despite its agreement to cease its nuclear intentions.
And while North Korea continues its saber rattling, Iran watches as its own nuclear program continues churning out enriched uranium that with time will be sufficient for nuclear weapons. Iran's own statements are far more troubling than those of North Korea, if only because Iran repeatedly calls for genocide of entire populations - destroying Israel and seeking regional domination in the name of religious devotion. There's absolutely no reason to think that Iran is going to give up its nuclear intentions.
Even the diplomats think that the best case scenario is that the regime slows its production, meaning that it will simply take longer for the regime to have sufficient nuclear materials for weapons. It doesn't change the calculus of national security as there's no way to verify what Iran is going to do since it has most of its nuclear facilities buried underground so as to evade satellite detection and makes it extremely difficult to destroy should airstrikes be contemplated.
It's also unreasonable to believe that the upcoming Iranian elections will change Iran's course on nuclear technologies, despite what some think. The regime has invested tremendous energies into building its nuclear infrastructure, and it will continue down this path, in part because of its ideological and religious needs.
Negotiating with these regimes has given them time to further their nuclear ambitions and perfect the technologies needed to build nuclear weapons, more time is not going to change the calculus in favor of peaceful resolution that involves a denuclearized North Korea or Iran. Both regimes will have nuclear weapons and the means to exact a serious economic toll on the rest of the world.
Failing to stop these regimes at the earliest stages of their nuclear ambitions, coupled with ignoring all the warning signs of regimes seeking nuclear weapons, puts us in a position where rogue nations can put the rest of the world at risk.
Now, North Korea appears willing to begin reprocessing spent fuel rods so as to extract still more plutonium for nuclear weapons. The PSI is a US-led initiative to deal with WMD proliferation; the effort led to Libya giving up its nuclear program and spilling details about the global efforts to obtain nuclear technologies.
UPDATE: Something else to keep in mind is the endgame for North Korea. I suspect the real goal is to influence how the Korean peninsula is reunited. He's trying to dictate the terms - setting up the preconditions that can't be brokered with.
Actions speak louder than words, and thus far, there's been no action and quite a few words speaking towards action at some indeterminate point in the future regarding the fallout from North Korea's nuclear test over the holiday weekend.
North Korea has repeatedly violated UN resolutions, and yet all the Security Council could do is put together a statement warning of further sanctions once the Security Council decided to do so.
UN resolutions aren't worth the paper they're written on, and the rogue regimes know it. They can and will get away with whatever they want because no one is going to stop them. President Obama surely doesn't look like he's up to the task.
President Obama, who has made nuclear disarmament a significant portion of his foreign policy (although who exactly would face the disarmament is up for debate given that Obama has repeatedly called for the US to disarm while ignoring the rogue states like North Korea) was out playing golf on Memorial Day when the news of the nuclear test came down. He issued a strongly worded statement, but then proceeded back to the links to complete his round.
Well, I guess we know what's more important. It's all about the priorities, and I guess he wanted to get his round in, regardless of world events. As Democrats were often more than willing to criticize President Bush on style, it's nice to see them giving President Obama a pass for playing the round regardless of breaking world events.
This is the peril of engagement that Obama has pushed. Six party talks have been a failure, the Agreed Framework was a failure, and it now appears that the Sunshine Policy between the two Koreas should be in doubt as well. Obama is being tested early and often, and the NY Times seems to think that he has few options available to him.
It's time to put the screws to the regime. It means cutting all aid to the regime - including humanitarian shipments. As harsh as that sounds, the regime could pay for the food if it chose to buy it on the open market rather than spend all of its energy on developing nuclear weapons. Of course, that's the point - Kim is using the human rights agenda against the rest of the world by holding his nation hostage to his insane economic agenda. He can devote all of his nation's energy to the military program and ignore the humanitarian crisis because the rest of the world, including the US is more than willing to provide food aid and fuel aid to the North Koreans. That frees up resources for the North Koreans to work on their nuclear program.
Smart sanctions haven't worked, and the regime ignores the Security Council on a regular basis. More talking isn't going to help either, given that the talking has enabled North Korea to stockpile weapons and continue perfecting the nuclear weapons in its arsenal.
The North Koreans didn't actually say what they're being charged with.
The brief dispatch in Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency did not say what charges they face and gave no other details. State media previously said Ling and Lee stand accused of illegal entry and unspecified "hostile" acts - charges that could carry up to 10 years in prison.
North Korea's detention of the two Americans comes at a time of mounting tensions between Pyongyang and Washington, and there are concerns Pyongyang could use the women as bargaining chips as it seeks to position itself for talks with the Obama administration.
The announcement of the June trial date for Ling and Lee also comes on the heels of the release in Iran this week of an American journalist originally sentenced to eight years for spying. Roxana Saberi's sentence was reduced to a two-year suspended term. She was freed Monday after four months in jail and international calls for the release of all three U.S. journalists.
This is a joke. The North Koreans are clearly testing the Obama Administration to see what the Administration will proffer as penance to secure the release of these two journalists.
In Saberi's case, it may have been the US including Iran at a conference on the situation in Afghanistan. North Korea may seek something similar, but the charges are just as bogus.
The Administration is not up to the task and the enemies of the US are probing to see just how much they can get away with. Arresting and detaining Americans is just the start, and it's only going to get a whole lot more dangerous for America going forward.
Kim Jong Il laid to rest speculation about his health with a triumphant return to parliament Thursday for his appointment to a third term as North Korea's supreme leader.
Kim, solemnly presiding over the opening session of the reclusive communist country's rubber-stamp legislature, was making his first major public appearance since reportedly suffering a stroke last August. He appeared considerably thinner and older than nine months ago.
His appearance came on the heels of a rocket launch heralded by North Korea as "historic" but assailed elsewhere as provocative.
Limping ever so slightly as he arrived to a standing ovation from fellow deputies to the 687-seat Supreme People's Assembly, he returned their applause by clapping, then motioned for them to be seated, footage broadcast on state TV Thursday evening showed.
Legislators approved Kim as chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission, an appointment that under the constitution makes him the nation's top leader while his father, late North Korea founder Kim Il Sung, remains "eternal president."
"Having comrade Kim Jong Il at the highest post of our country again is a great honor and happiness for our military and people and a great happy event for all Korean people," a newscaster said on state TV.
The appearance may put to rest some questions about whether Kim, 67, has recuperated from a stroke that U.S. and South Korean officials say he suffered in mid-August.
While Il goes through the motions and makes a show of this, his regime is busy moving ahead with their missile technologies and are digesting the lessons of their successful missile test. While some would argue that it was a failure since it didn't result in a satellite insertion into orbit, I would argue that the true test was that the regime wanted to test the throw weight of its long range missiles and this was the perfect cover.
The circumstances under which two American journalists came to be held by North Korea remains suspicious, but a South Korean report indicates that the North Koreans kidnapped the two journalists, Laura Ling and Euna Lee, from the poorly marked Chinese-North Korean border after North Korean troops warned the two to stop taking video of the border.
According to the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo, the journalists were seized by armed North Korean soldiers as they crossed the frozen Tumen River on the country's far northeastern border with China.
They are likely being held in Pyongyang, the country's capital, where they will be interrogated, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported.
While North Korea accused them of crossing into its territory, other reports have said the women were snatched on the Chinese side after ignoring the soldiers' demand that they stop shooting video footage.
The border between the two countries is long and porous and poorly marked.
This isn't the first time that the North Koreans have acted rashly and sought to precipitate an international incident. China has long backed the North Koreans, and regularly sends back those North Koreans attempting to flee the destitute and morally bankrupt North Korean regime.
I don't quite get the rationale for taking Ling and Lee, since the video would not have caused nearly the stir and outrage that North Korea's kidnapping would for shooting that video and claims that they illegally entered the country, unless this was an intent to test President Obama to see how he handles the situation.
The AP has a long history of running photos with clearly biased captions, photos from dubious sources including terrorists. They routinely ran photos that were nothing more than propaganda against Israel during the Hizbullah war despite clear evidence that the person taking the photos was stage managing the situation. Jules Crittenden points out that the AP also failed its readers by omitting key details from reports such as that the US was winning in Iraq.
With that in mind, it would appear that they're passing off a screen captured image as their own. In fact, they don't question when this photo was taken at all - the caption is provided below:
Newly released pictures of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. Did he try to send Iran missile parts? Photo: AP
I came across this photo while looking at a Jerusalem Post story on a foiled plot to ship missile technology from North Korea to Iran. What got me curious was the fact that the photo shows lush vegetation when North Korea is currently experiencing late fall weather. In fact, the weather in Pyongang this morning is nearly as cold as it is in New York City.
There was something fishy about the photo, so I dug a little deeper. Lo and behold, I came up with this photo, courtesy of Getty Images, with the caption below:
NORTH KOREA - OCTOBER 11: In this frame grab made off undated North Korea's Korean Central Television (KCTV) footage aired on October 11, 2008 North Korean leader Kim Jong Il claps as he inspects a female military unit in North Korea. It marked the first time in 58 days that photos of Kim in public have been broadcast by North Korean news media showing the reclusive ruler looking well despite reports he had suffered serious health problems. (Photo by Korean Central Television/Yonhap via Getty Images)
Notice anything curious? Yes, I'm sure you might. It would appear that the AP photo is little more than a cleaned up screen capture closeup of Kim Il Jung, and Getty Images provides a wee bit more detail too about the circumstances of the photo. This was broadcast back in October, though it is undated footage so it could be from any time prior to the October airdate.
So, this could be a problem with AP or the Jerusalem Post. In either case, AP provided the image, and most likely provided a caption to run along with the photo. The Jerusalem Post ran that image and didn't think anything of it. At a minimum, we're talking quality control problems, but they're also misleading readers that this is a more recent photo than it actually is.
South Korean intelligence indicates that ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has suffered a serious setback and has been hospitalized, a newspaper reported Wednesday.
The report in the Dong-a Ilbo newspaper cited an unnamed government official in saying intelligence obtained Sunday suggested "a serious problem" with Kim's health. The report did not elaborate.
Kim, 66, reportedly suffered a stroke and underwent brain surgery in August. North Korea, however, denies he is ill.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service and its Unification Ministry said Wednesday they were aware of the Dong-a report but could not confirm it.
The report came a day after Japan's prime minister told lawmakers in Tokyo that Kim probably is in the hospital, though "not unable" to make decisions as North Korea's leader.
The chief of the National Intelligence Service had told lawmakers Tuesday that Kim was "not physically perfect" but still able to rule the country.
The North Korean government is extremely reclusive and wont shed any light on the subject, but they're more than willing to issue not so veiled threats against their Southern neighbor. The North Korean government warned that it would turn South Korea into rubble. The North Koreans are also claiming that L'il Kim has been quite busy the past few months, and I'm sure that Kim's fascination with Hollywood would remind him and his minions that we too have seen the movie Weekend at Bernies.
This is the same North Korean regime that has run a gulag archipelago for political dissidents and those who have been caught trying to flee the country and its ruinous economic policies. Those who pushed the Sunshine Policy miscalculated because the North Korean regime simply did not share the same values that the South did. The North seeks complete and total control over all communications into the country, and punishes those who attempt to learn about the outside world.
A top aide to Ahmadinejad, Amir Mansour Borghei, told journalists the president was "indisposed".
Iranian news Web site Shahab said doctors had advised the president to reduce his workload if he wanted to avoid illness, quoting "sources close to the government."
The Web site indicated that the president had pulled out of the engagements due to fatigue caused by low blood pressure.
However, other sources in Teheran speculated that the opposition was spreading rumors about Ahmadinejad's health in order to garner support for next year's elections.
This follows reports about North Korea's Kim Il Jung's poor health, and Cubans continue to watch for signs that Fidel Castro has indeed given up the ghost and the regime admits that he's dead.
Then again, Venezuela's economy appears to have caught pneumonia as oil prices have tumbled and the socialist agenda of [T]hugo Chavez has meant electricity shortages to go along with food shortages and nationalization of industries. Iran and Russia face a similar situation, as oil prices have put a serious dent into their plans for regional hegemony and standing up against the US.
Well, once again we're getting reports that North Korean dictator, Kim Il Jung, has died. Supposedly the North Korean government will be making some kind of major announcement tomorrow. If we start hearing North Korean media outlets spontaneously begin crying and over-emotional outbursts, we'll know that he's dead.
That, of course, leaves one wondering who's in charge, and what will come of the ongoing discussions with the West and the US over North Korea's nuclear program. The country can barely feed its people, but they've pulled out all the stops to build a nuclear weapons program and a military industrial complex.
The reports are so far unsubstantiated by the South Koreans, who watch their northern enemy quite closely. The reason for all the rumors?
On Sunday, Japan's Sankei newspaper reported that the Japanese government had information North Korea would issue an "important announcement" on Monday and that it could be about Kim's death or a government change induced by a coup. North Korea will also ban foreigners from entering the country starting Monday, the Sankei said.
The report, which cited unidentified Japanese Defense Ministry sources, came a day after Japan's largest newspaper, the Yomiuri, said North Korea had ordered its diplomats abroad to be on standby for an important announcement.
