The Rational Irrationalism of North Korea

North Korea keeps ratcheting up the threat index with pronouncements that they're going to unleash nuclear annihilation against the US and South Korea. The threats are definitely crazy, but I think they've been acting as rational irrationalists. What do I mean by this? It means that they're crazy like a fox and have a definite strategy here. They know from past history that crazy gets the goods. Kim Il Song got the West to give humanitarian aid. Kim Jong Il threatened nuclear war and got aid. Now? Kim Jong Un threatens apocalypse and the endgame is to get aid.

Everyone knows the North Korean economy is in shambles. We know it. South Korea knows it. Even the North Koreans know it. They sacked their Prime Minister and replaced him with a guy who was previously sacked for not getting the economy going. The North wouldn't do that unless things were dire.

About the only thing going for the North right now is that they've got nuclear tech and some intermediate range missiles that might work but aren't necessarily accurate. It's enough of a threat though to be taken seriously, which is why the US, South Koreans, and Japanese are moving in theater missile defense systems and orienting their defensive capabilities accordingly. At the same time, the US/SK/Japanese are moving in assets that could deter what could be the next phase of North Korean saber rattling - a small scale provocation such as sinking a South Korean boat, shelling disputed South Korean islands, or threatening South Korean fishermen.

The North has been thoroughly indoctrinated by the Kim clan to consider the US to be equivalent of the Soviets in Red Dawn. Evil that must be thwarted from worldwide supremacy and to protect the honor of the homeland. All that changes is instead of shouting Wolverines!, the North is shouting Juche!

What we take to be defensive action, like moving in assets to the region in response to North claims of nuclear Armageddon is considered a further threat that North Korean leadership considers is justification for their earlier claims.

Now, are the North really so crazy as to light the Korean peninsula aflame, let alone carry out their nuclear threats? If the North doesn't get what it is demanding, would it be really willing to attack the South?

I definitely see the North restarting their shuttered nuclear program, and it also is a bargaining chip that the North could use in essentially shaking down the west for more aid (which the North will spin as winning and tribute to North Korean success).

I don't think they are willing to launch a full scale conflict, but can the South really take that risk? It's places like Seoul that will be on the front line of a North Korean attack given its proximity to the DMZ. The North might be convinced that they could manage the element of surprise and get in a devastating first blow, but it would only be a matter of time before Western technological superiority demolishes the military the North has (and which is largely stuck in the 1960s both with ground and air assets).

Moreover, the Chinese would probably step in to moderate the North's bellicosity before things go wrong for the North. The Chinese don't want a refugee crisis on their border, which is exactly what would happen if the North goes to war. China has trading relations with the South, and an economic hit to the region would hurt the global economy as well.

North Korea Parading Missile Fakes?

Is North Korea parading fakes for the world to see, but lacking any real capability to field the equipment? That's the conclusion of a team of missile technology experts who have reviewed the photos and video of missiles paraded before Kim Jong Un during the 100th anniversary of his grandfather's birth earlier this month.

But the weapons displayed April 15 appear to be a mishmash of liquid-fuel and solid-fuel components that could never fly together. Undulating casings on the missiles suggest the metal is too thin to withstand flight. Each missile was slightly different from the others, even though all were supposedly the same make. They don't even fit the launchers they were carried on.

"There is no doubt that these missiles were mock-ups," Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker, of Germany's Schmucker Technologie, wrote in a paper posted recently on the website Armscontrolwonk.com that listed those discrepancies. "It remains unknown if they were designed this way to confuse foreign analysts, or if the designers simply did some sloppy work."

The missiles, called KN-08s, were loaded onto the largest mobile launch vehicles North Korea has ever unveiled. Pyongyang gave them special prominence by presenting them at the end of the parade, which capped weeks of celebrations marking the 100th anniversary of the country's founding father, Kim Il Sung.

The unveiling created an international stir. The missiles appeared to be new, and designed for long-range attacks.

The missiles appear to be a mish-mash of variations on a single missile design. That could have been intended so as to give misinformation to experts peering down on those missiles but it just as likely could be that the North Korean fabricators couldn't get the details right.

The missile carriers, which apparently are based on a Chinese design, were far larger than the missiles they were carrying, which could indicate the North Korean intention to build still larger missiles, but it also shows that the North Koreans are an indeterminate period of time away from fielding a credible long range missile force capable of hitting the US. It could still hit US interests overseas, but the country remains a regional threat for all of its bluster.

North Korea took more than a decade between showing off the previous generation of missile, the Taepodong-2, at a military parade and actually putting on a launching pad.

North Korea has thus far failed to successfully launch any of its long range missiles in four attempts since 1998. Some experts suggest that the only way North Korea could field an ICBM is if someone gives it to them because of the lack of industrial capabilities to do so. I think that's overstating the problems facing the North Korean regime and underestimating their capabilities to circumvent sanctions in place. We do so at our peril.

North Korean Missile Launch Ends In Failure

It was meant to be a great achievement and significant accomplishment for the regime of Kim Jong Un to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Song. The North Koreans would launch its most complex missile and satellite payload into space.

Yet, it blew up just about a minute into its boost phase. It likely didn't even clear North Korean airspace, although some parts may have fallen into South Korean waters.

Officials from the United States, South Korea and Japan called the launch a failure, and the Japanese government said the rocket had disintegrated into several pieces while still in North Korean territory or over South Korean waters.

“We believe that the rocket fell apart several minutes after the takeoff,” said Kim Min-seok, a spokesman for South Korea’s Defense Ministry. He said the assessment of both the South Korean and American intelligence monitors was that “the North Korean missile launching has failed.”

The rocket, called the Unha-3, blasted off from the Soehae launch site near North Korea’s western corner with China, at about 7:39 a.m., , the South Korea Defense Ministry spokesman said.

In Washington, a senior Obama administration official said the United States would follow through on its threat to suspend a recent agreement to supply food aid to North Korea despite the launch’s failure. The official also said the failure had proved the effectiveness of sanctions already in place on North Korea, which had deprived the isolated country of access needed for a successful program.

There was no immediate announcement of the launch from the North.

Failure isn't an option for North Korea's missile experts. So, when today's rocket launch ended in failure just a minute into the launch, it's not going to end well for them.

They will likely be purged or otherwise explain away their failures as sabotage by the US, South Koreans, or even the result of solar flares or radiation damage.

All the while, North Korean civilians suffer while all the nation's resources are fully committed to missile technologies, weapons development, and nuclear development while it can't even feed itself.

Is North Korea Contemplating New Nuclear Test As It Readies Missile For Launch

North Korea has been quite busy in the past couple of days with pronouncements about preparing for a test of a new long rang missile. Now, South Korea is warning of possible preparations by the North to conduct a new underground nuclear weapons test. All this comes just months after Kim Jong Un assumed the role of national leader following the death of his father Kim Jong Il. The missile test and potential nuclear test are another sign that Jong Un is following the path laid down by his father - to use nuclear blackmail to obtain still more concessions on humanitarian aid to help feed the nation:

The South Korean intelligence report says it is highly probable that after the long-range rocket launch, North Korea will use the ensuing international condemnation as an excuse to go ahead with the nuclear test in Punggye-ri, the site in the country's northeast where the other two tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009.

The report, which said such a test would be considered a grave provocation, includes satellite images that it claims were filmed recently and show the final stages of a tunnel being dug at the site.

The photos show an unusual pile of earth and sand near the opening of the tunnel, and the report says this pile has been slowly increasing since March.

North Korean state media have not made an announcement regarding plans for a new nuclear test. Two senior U.S. officials said the United States also had reason to believe that the North was planning such an action.

"Once again this shows ...they know how to manipulate the world," said Andrei Lankov of Seoul's Kookmin University.

"If they do a missile launch and in few months a successful nuclear test, especially a uranium based nuclear device, it will send a very strong message to the world. The same message they always want to deliver -- we are here, we are dangerous, unpredictable and it's better to deal with us by giving us monetary and food concessions."

Japan is readying missile defense systems ahead of the North Korean test launch. The North continues to claim that it is a test of a civilian missile system and experts who have seen the missile note that it is configured for civilian purposes, but the missile would provide the North with critical data for use and incorporation in the North's long range missile program. The North has repeated given and/or sold technical data on missile technologies to countries such as Pakistan and Iran, and the North has also been a source of worry about nuclear proliferation.

The missile test is timed to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, Jong Un's grandfather and founder of the North Korean regime.

North Korea Agrees To Moratorium on Nuclear Weapons, Missile Development

This is being hailed as a significant breakthrough, and it should be. However, we need to be vigilant that North Korea isn't double dealing - saying one thing to the US all while engaging in clandestine operations or proliferation activities.

The United States said Wednesday North Korea has agreed to suspend nuclear activities and accept a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests, in a breakthrough in negotiations with the secretive communist nation.

The announcement comes little more than two months after the death of longtime ruler Kim Jong Il, and suggests North Korea has met the key U.S. preconditions for restarting multi-nation disarmament-for-aid talks that the North withdrew from in 2009.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the North has agreed to allow International Atomic Energy inspectors to verify and monitor the moratorium on uranium enrichment and confirm disablement of its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon.

Her statement says the US will meet with North Korea to finalize details for a proposed package of 240,000 metric tons of food aid.

North Korea issued a similar, although differently worded statement released simultaneously in Pyongyang.

An unidentified spokesman from North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in its statement carried by the state-run news agency that the North agreed to the nuclear moratoriums and the allowance of U.N. inspectors "with a view to maintaining positive atmosphere" for the U.S.-North Korea talks.

The announcement follows talks in Beijing last week between U.S. and North Korean negotiators, the first since negotiations were suspended after Kim's death in December from a heart attack.

Before his death, the U.S. and North Korea were close to such an agreement, which appears to meets U.S. preconditions for restarting the six-nation talks suspended three years ago.

Allowing inspectors to review operations at known nuclear facilities is an improvement, and may mean that the regime under Kim Jong Un is moving away from the militaristic tone set by his father. It may also mean that the regime recognizes just how bad its socio-economic conditions are and that the need for food aid is finally driving the regime to curtail its military programs. The agricultural situation in the country may be even worse than the regime is letting on.

That may be wishful thinking - but if the regime has to begin focusing on improving its agricultural resources so that the nation doesn't starve while curtailing the nuclear and missile programs, then that's a significant accomplishment of the sanctions regime in place.

North Korea Culls Population of Insincere Mourners; Will Display Kim Jong Il's Remains

North Korea's regime is sending people it deems to be insincere in mourning the death of Kim Jong-il to labor camps. It's a loyalty test of sorts, and the regime will get to pick and choose who didn't appear sufficiently sad at the loss of the dead dictator.

That ABC News report includes a chipper video accompanying the story that ends with a variation of "...it's up to the North Korean government to know which tears are real or crocodile". Mind you that this is a regime that can't feed its own people and operates a gulag archipelago from which most people never return.

That's the real story here - that the government is going to decide who isn't mourning sufficiently to pass their cult of personality test, and if they fail, they're toast. It's similar to when Kim Il Song died.

Oh, and speaking of Kim Il Song, the North Koreans will display Kim Jong Il's remains alongside his dad (despite the fact that the country is pretty much broke and can't bother to feed itself).

The regime's propagandists are also busy adding superlatives to both Jong-il and the new ruler of North Korea, Kim Jong-un.

For all their glory, most North Koreans suffer horribly from malnutrition and lack of basic human rights. This is a regime that cares little for North Koreans and puts the cult of personality above all else.

North Korea Conducts Kim Jong-il's Funeral

North Korea is mourning the loss of the despot Kim Jong-il and the nation's propagandists are busy with the hagiography of both Jong-il and his son Kim Jong-un, who now leads the country. Western observers have little to go by on what is really going on in the country and who is holding the strings of power, so the funeral is an opportunity for them to remark upon who is and isn't involved in the funeral and their relative importance based on their positioning in the ceremonies.

The extensive funeral was closely watched for signs of shifts in power in the country’s enigmatic leadership. Mr. Kim’s two elder brothers, Kim Jong-nam and Kim Jong-chol, were nowhere to be seen.

Leading the funeral alongside and behind Mr. Kim were a familiar mix of military generals and party secretaries, including elderly stalwarts from the days of Kim Jong-il and his father, the North’s founding president, Kim Il-sung, and younger officials who expanded their influence while playing crucial roles in grooming the son as successor under the father’s tutelage.

Most prominent were the two men whose names seldom fail to pop up when North Korea watchers tried to dissect the palace intrigues in the capital, Pyongyang: Jang Song-taek, Kim Jong-un’s uncle and vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission, and Ri Yong-ho, head of the North Korean military’s general staff.

Mr. Jang’s influence as power broker expanded after Kim Jong-il, his brother-in-law, suffered a stroke in 2008. He appeared committed to extending the Kim family’s rule to the third generation but his own personal ambition remains shrouded in mystery.

Mr. Ri, a relatively unknown figure during most of Kim Jong-il’s rule, rose to prominence in the past two years as the late leader began grooming his son as heir. He is now considered an important backer of Kim Jong-un in the Korean People’s Army, whose support is key to his consolidation of power.

“If anything, the funeral indicates that Jang Song-taek and Ri Yong-ho will be the closest aides to Kim Jong-un,” said Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University.

Less certain was whether and how a potential power game might play out among these aging generals and party secretaries more than twice Mr. Kim’s age. He could become either a forceful leader or a figurehead, depending on whether he can replicate the skills of his father, who kept the elites in line both by stocking their households with foreign luxury goods and by dispatching anyone who fell out of favor to labor camps, analysts said.

On the surface, the funeral appeared to proceed with a totalitarian choreography.

Kim Jong-un walked with one hand on the hearse and the other raised in salute. Neat rows of soldiers in olive-green uniforms stood, hats off and bowing, in front of the Kumsusan mausoleum, where Kim Jong-il’s body had been lying in state since his death was announced on Dec. 19.

Jong-un has clearly assumed power and is prominently featured in the ceremonies. His two brothers are not present. Walking behind Jong-un was Jang Song Thaek, Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law and a vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission who is expected to play a crucial role in helping Kim Jong Un take power.

The North Korean propagandists are busy claiming that the snowfall is the heavens reacting to the death of a heavenly leader. It's also not surprising that there are huge crowds of mourners lining the funeral procession route. The cult of personality surrounding the Kim clan is all-consuming, and anyone who wavered from the party line could find themselves disappeared into the gulag archipelago. There are surely some who do mourn his loss, but this is a country where the regime controls the media, limits access to news from the outside world, and lives in abject poverty.

The World Continues Reacting to Kim Jong-il's Death

China has formally recognized Kim Jong-un as the new leader of North Korea following the death of his father. Expect other countries to follow, and there's no reason for anyone not to accept that Jong-un is the newest dictator in charge of North Korea. The dynastic totalitarian regime begun by Jong-un's grandfather continues, and Jong-il's death allows the regime to reinforce and restate its cult of personality surrounding the Kim clan.

While China has traditionally had close ties and has thwarted efforts to pressure North Korea into giving up its nuclear program, it doesn't have the kind of sway to affect the political situation as much as one might suspect. They're often as much in the dark about the political machinations as everyone else. They're spectators to the death and transition in the regime. China has been keen on keeping the border tightly controlled, because it doesn't want to deal with a potential influx of millions of North Korean refugees streaming across the border. Since that border is far less militarized by the North Koreans, it is often used by those trying to escape the regime to points elsewhere in Asia, including South Korea.

Meanwhile, MSNBC/New York Times wonders whether intel services dropped the ball by not detecting signs of Kim's death.

For South Korean and American intelligence services to have failed to pick up any clues to this momentous development — panicked phone calls between government officials, say, or soldiers massing around Mr. Kim’s train — attests to the secretive nature of North Korea, a country not only at odds with most of the world but also sealed off from it in a way that defies spies or satellites.

Asian and American intelligence services have failed before to pick up significant developments in North Korea. Pyongyang built a sprawling plant to enrich uranium that went undetected for about a year and a half until North Korean officials showed it off in late 2010 to an American nuclear scientist. The North also helped build a complete nuclear reactor in Syria without tipping off Western intelligence.

Will younger Kim's aunt, uncle be N. Korea puppet masters?
As the United States and its allies confront a perilous leadership transition in North Korea — a failed state with nuclear weapons — the closed nature of the country will greatly complicate their calculations. With little information about Mr. Kim’s son and successor, Kim Jong-un, and even less insight into the palace intrigue in Pyongyang, the North’s capital, much of their response will necessarily be guesswork.

The fact is that the North Korean regime is so insular that it is nearly impossible to divine its intentions or decision making processes because so little is communicated (telecommunications in general in North Korea is highly limited so there isn't much in the way of chatter that could be intercepted) and human intelligence assets are also constrained by the very nature of the regime.

North Korean leaders want to perpetuate this notion and secretive nature because so much of their power is derived from the inability of others to understand what's going on in the country - including North Koreans who are constrained from knowing anything other than what the regime deems necessary.

Indeed, news of the death was kept from North Koreans for 48 hours, likely to insure the handover of power to Kim's son. There are even questions about what will happen to Jong-il's remains; some question whether he'll be embalmed and put on display next to his father, or buried simply. Considering the cult of personality surrounding the Kim clan, expect the regime to spend whatever it takes to display his remains, even if the impoverished country remains on the verge of famine and can't afford extravagances such as the multimillion dollar costs associated with such displays.

For the moment, his remains are lying in repose in Pyongyang. North Korean media handlers are pushing the propaganda about Jong-un, noting his divine origins in a fashion that mimics the cult of personality established around his father and grandfather.

Death of a Despotic Dictator - Kim Jong-il Dead at 69

North Koreans have not experienced anything other than a dynastic dictatorship since before the Korean War. The cult of personality that surrounds the Kim family is all-pervasive and thorough coopts and corrupts the worldview of North Koreans.

So, when Kim Jong Il died yesterday, supposedly of a heart attack while on a train carrying out inspections of the country a couple of days ago (but publicly acknowledged today), the North Korean media goes through the ritualized process of openly weeping for the dead dictator and praying for his successor, his son Kim Jong-un.

The outpouring of grief around North Korea is highly stylized and is an outgrowth of the cult of personality, but it's also a way of showing loyalty to the regime; if someone doesn't show sufficient amount of grief in these public displays, they may wonder whether someone will snitch on them or the North Korean security apparatus will deal with them. These displays are not necessarily genuine.

The North had kept news of the death of its leader secret for roughly two days, perhaps a sign that the leadership was struggling to position itself for what many believe could be a particularly perilous transition.

A few hours after the announcement, the ruling Workers’ Party and other state institutions released a joint statement suggesting Mr. Kim’s chosen successor, his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, was in charge.

The statement called the son "the great successor to the revolution" and "the eminent leader of the military and the people." It was the first time North Korea referred to the son as "leader" since his ailing father pulled him out of obscurity in September last year and made him a four-star general and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party.

The Workers’ Party said that “Under the leadership of our comrade Kim Jong-un, we have to turn sadness into strength and courage, and overcome today’s difficulties.”

K.C.N.A., the official news agency, said North Korean soldiers and citizens were swearing allegiance to Kim Jong-un. People on the streets of Pyongyang broke into tears as they learned of Mr. Kim’s death, The Associated Press reported from Pyongyang.

Kim Jong-un is believed to be in his late 20s and his youth and relative inexperience could make him vulnerable to power struggles; some analysts have questioned the depth of the military’s support for him.

Kim Jong-il’s death came after a long illness, dating to 2008, that American intelligence agencies believed involved some form of a stroke. The North has indicated he was 69 years old, but scholars have said he could have been a year older.

Jong Il's death throws negotiations about North Korea's nuclear program into limbo. North Koreans and the West were negotiating food shipments as well, since North Korea can't produce anywhere near the amount of food necessary to support itself. The regime focuses its efforts on its military infrastructure and uses military weapons and technology sales to maintain its power, at the expense of the people who are in dire straits.

South Korean's military was put on high alert considering the possibility of the North Korean military using this as an opportunity to assert itself as well as the possibility that North Koreans may attempt to flee the country en masse.

Jong-il's greatest achievement was not self-sufficiency of food production, but the ability to detonate two crude nuclear devices in underground tests in 2009. While one is considered a fizzle, the two tests taken together show that the North Koreans have demonstrated nuclear weapons capabilities and that has led to further international sanctions and isolated the regime.

While some analysts are wondering whether Jong-il was a master manipulator or a madmad, the answer is that he was both. One can be a manipulator and a madmad at the same time. The one guiding principle for the regime is that maintaining power was critical and absolute. There was no tolerance of dissent and everyone in the country had to claim fealty to Jong-il. Dissenters were treated harshly - disappearing into the North Korean gulag archipelago of labor camps and prisons. North Koreans also get a wildly distorted worldview as the regime tightly controls all media access, limiting telecommunications and Internet connectivity.

So what do we know about Jong-un? That's the trillion dollar question, and the answer isn't much:

Before his death, Kim Jong Il had been grooming his third and youngest son as his successor. Kim Jong Eun studied for a time in Switzerland at a German-speaking high school in Liebefeld, a suburb of the Swiss capital, Bern. Former classmates remember a shy but determined boy obsessed with American basketball and expensive sports shoes. They say he spoke passable German and made some local friends but was monitored closely by staff members s from the North Korean Embassy in Bern.

He vanished in the middle of the school year in 2000, apparently to return to Pyongyang, and had not been seen in public since until he emerged at his father’s heir apparent last year. A campaign of hagiographic propaganda hailed him as the “Dear Young General,” but it is unclear how much support he has within the armed forces or the ruling party, both of which are dominated by far older men. His mother, a former dancer, died in 2004.

UPDATE:
A classic satire of Kim, courtesy of Team America's madcap duo, Matt Stone and Trey Parker:




UPDATE:
For anyone wondering just how bad things are in North Korea, look no further than the satellite imagery showing the utter lack of any nighttime activity in North Korea. There's only a modicum of lighting around the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, but not much else.

That's compared to the ribbons of light around Seoul and throughout much of South Korea, Japan, Thailand, and China, where cities are joined together by highways and towns at regular intervals.

North Korea Threatens Holy Nuclear War Against South Korea

Anyone want to take a crack at why North Korea would start using religious imagery in its threats against South Korea? North Korea threatens holy nuclear war if the South doesn't back down on its military preparations.

Tensions are heating up on the Korean peninsula as South Korea continues to stage military drills near the border.The response on Thursday from North Korea's chief of defense, Kim Yong Chun, was blunt:
"To counter the enemy's intentional drive to push the situation to the brink of war, our revolutionary forces are making preparations to begin a holy war at any moment necessary based on nuclear deterrent," Kim said, according to the Korean Central News Agency.
The remarks come as the North prepares to celebrate the 19th anniversary of the day its leader, Kim Jong Il, took power.

The video makes an attempt at balance, trying to claim that the South Koreans were being provocative by carrying on military training in disputed waters prior to North Korean shelling of a South Korean island that killed four people. That would ignore the fact that a North Korean mine or torpedo sank a South Korean cruiser, killing 46 sailors on board in the worst incident since the truce was signed in 1953.

The military exercises are the most the South Korean government can do short of taking actual retaliatory action against North Korea for the North's repeated attacks. The South Korean government is under tremendous pressure to show that it is taking necessary actions to protect its citizens from the North Korean threats.

The North's latest pronouncements, threatening a holy nuclear war, only adds to the pressure and possibility that the North is trying to force still more concessions at talks and is using the nuclear angle to its utmost advantage.

South Korean Wary Over North Korea's Attack; US Sends Carrier Task Force

As part of President Barack Obama's measure to stand shoulder to shoulder with South Korea, the US has sent a carrier task force to operate off the coast of South Korea as part of the US support for South Korea, which came under a heavy artillery barrage yesterday.

The exercise will include sending the aircraft carrier George Washington and a number of accompanying ships into the region, both to deter further attacks by the North and to signal to China that unless it reins in its unruly ally it will see an even larger American presence in the vicinity.

The decision came after Mr. Obama attended the end of an emergency session in the White House Situation Room and then emerged to call President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea to express American solidarity and talk about a coordinated response.

But as a former national security official who dealt frequently with North Korea in the Bush administration, Victor Cha, said just a few hours before the attack began, North Korea is “the land of lousy options.”

Mr. Obama is once again forced to choose among unpalatable choices: responding with verbal condemnations and a modest tightening of sanctions, which has done little to halt new attacks; starting military exercises that are largely symbolic; or reacting strongly, which could risk a broad war in which South Korea’s capital, Seoul, would be the first target.

The decision to send the aircraft carrier came as the South Korean military went into what it termed “crisis status.” President Lee said he would order strikes on a North Korean base if there were indications of new attacks.

North Korea’s artillery shells fell on Yeonpyeong Island, a fishing village whose residents fled by ferry to the mainland city of Inchon — where Gen. Douglas MacArthur’s troops landed 60 years ago this fall, three months after the outbreak of the Korean War.

The diplomats will try everything imaginable to keep the situation from escalating, but that may be precisely what the North Korean regime is banking on. They will use the opportunity to attempt to wrest more concessions from the South and Party of Six, or at a minimum stall any additional efforts to contain the North's nuclear ambitions.

The death toll from the North Korean assault is now four - two civilians and two South Korean Marines.

North Korea Fires Artillery Into South Korea, Which Returns Fire

The long simmering Korean border was rocked by artillery fire earlier today as North Korea bombarded an island claimed by South Korea, setting several areas ablaze and killing two South Korean soldiers and injuring 18 soldiers and civilians. South Korea responded with artillery fire of its own.

South Korean artillery units returned fire after the North’s shells struck South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island at 2:34 p.m., said Mr. Kwon, adding that the North also fired numerous rounds into the Yellow Sea. Television footage showed large plumes of black smoke spiraling from the island, and news reports said dozens of houses were on fire.

The official North Korean news agency said in a brief statement Tuesday night that the South had started the fight when it “recklessly fired into our sea area.”

The South Korean deputy minister of defense, Lee Yong-geul, acknowledged that artillery units had been firing test shots on Tuesday afternoon close to the North Korean coast, from a battery on the South Korean island of Paeknyeongdo. But he denied Pyongyang’s charge that the shots had crossed the sea border.While skirmishes between the two countries have not been uncommon in recent years, the clash appeared to have been the most serious in decades and came amid heightened tensions over the North’s nuclear program. An American nuclear scientist who recently visited the North said he had been shown a secret and modern enrichment facility.

A spokesman for President Lee Myung-bak said Mr. Lee gathered his security-related ministers and senior aides at a crisis meeting in the underground situation room at the Blue House, the presidential office and residence.

“We will not in any way tolerate this,” Mr. Lee’s chief spokesman, Hong Sang-pyo, said after the meeting. “Any further provocation will get an immediate and strong response and the South Korean military will strongly retaliate if there is anything further.”

The North continues testing the patience of the South and seeing what it can get away with ahead of ongoing talks to curb the North's nuclear ambitions.

UPDATE:
Video shot of the attack:


UPDATE:
South Korea says that they were carrying out typical military drills and were test firing weapons to the West - away from North Korea, when North Korea opened fire.

UPDATE:
South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak called for "enormous retaliation" against the North and consider this an act of war - the invasion of South Korean territory.

Hours after North Korea's deadly artillery attacks Tuesday, South Korea's president said "enormous retaliation" is needed to stop Pyongyang's incitement, but international diplomats urgently appealed for restraint.

"The provocation this time can be regarded as an invasion of South Korean territory," President Lee Myung-bak said at the headquarters of the Joint Chiefs of Staff here, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency.

He's under tremendous pressure militarily and politically to respond with force, but I expect the diplomats to cool things down. That will make it tougher for the South Korean president politically, but will avert a wider conflict for now.

Of course, that very aversion to war means that the North will see this as yet another sign that their strategy of provocation works and will continue pressing their luck until the South does eventually respond.

As it is, the two sides exchanged artillery fire for several hours after the North began firing on the island. We're lucky that the fighting didn't spread to other sectors along the DMZ. It's little wonder that the international markets got spooked by the news and the news focus is on the crisis on the Korean peninsula.

For further news, check out the ongoing blog coverage at memeorandum. There is some musings that the attack was an indication of the power transfer from Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un - using the incident as a prelude to consolidating power, but I don't think that we would see any concrete transfer until after Jong Il is dead. Moreover, if this was truly the reason for the incident, then Jong Un is just as mad as his father and grandfather before him.

UPDATE:
Still more video showing the North Koreans firing on civilian areas. At least 60 homes were damages in the artillery barrage:

Kim Jong Un To Follow Father as North Korean Ruler

North Korea's Hermit Kingdom will remain in family control. Kim Jong-un will follow his father as leader of the impoverished country. Expect him to follow his father's path on pursuing nuclear weapons, nuclear proliferation, and exporting weapons to anyone imaginable to source revenues for a country that can' even feed itself without foreign assistance.

The Bellicosity of North Korea Continues Apace

Maintaining a nuclear arsenal despite being completely incapable of feeding its population should give clear insight into what drives the North Korean regime. It is all about its own survival and cult of personality that blinds it to the realities that the world outside the hermit kingdom is flying past.

Yet its war with South Korea has never ended. It was only suspended, which is why the North Koreans continue to engage in acts of war occasionally to remind everyone that the North hasn't gone into the dustbin of history.

Sinking a South Korean ship wasn't sufficient to capture the world's attention, even though the US and South Korea note that a North Korean torpedo fired from a North Korean submarine was to blame for the sinking that killed nearly 50 sailors. It was the casting of blame on North Korea that led the North to shut its border with the South and escalate the war of words between the two countries.

North Korea threatened Wednesday to block cross-border traffic and blow up any South Korean loudspeakers blasting propaganda northward after a six-year hiatus, as tensions soared over the sinking of a South Korean warship.

The dramatic deterioration in relations came as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton visited Seoul at the end of a three-nation Asian tour that was dominated by the March 26 sinking blamed on a North Korean torpedo attack.

"This was an unacceptable provocation by North Korea, and the international community has a responsibility and a duty to respond," Clinton told reporters after talks with South Korean leaders.

A team of international investigators concluded last week that a homing torpedo from a North Korean submarine tore apart the 1,200-ton Cheonan off the west coast, killing 46 South Korean sailors.

South Korea began taking punitive steps Tuesday against North Korea — ranging from slashing trade, resuming propaganda warfare and barring the North's cargo ships. Those were seen as among the strongest it could implement short of military action.

The U.S. has said evidence of the North's culpability is overwhelming and has backed the South's measures, but key North Korea ally China has said it is still weighing evidence about the sinking and has done little but urge calm on all sides.

Now who exactly will suffer as a result? Well, there are some South Korean companies that do business in North Korean export zones to take advantage of the cheaper labor, which was all part of a Sunshine policy to improve relations between the two countries. However, the real problem is that shutting the border harms the North far more than it does the South - or anyone else for that matter. It isn't a rational decision for the North to take, given its precarious economic situation.

Yet, there is a rationality to the North's actions. They know that the South will not go to war with the threat of thousands of artillery and missiles aimed at its largest population centers. The threat of civilian casualties is too great to respond with force to such acts of war, so the war of words is substituted. This enables the North Koreans to continue engaging in such acts knowing that they can do so with near impunity because there is little the rest of the world is willing or capable of doing to stop them - and that includes China. All China can do is try to keep the situation calm, because the last thing China wants is a refugee mess on its border as North Koreans come into China looking for a safe haven from the North Korean gulag archipelago and the utter destitution found throughout North Korea due to the regime's destructive economic and social policies.

US; South Korean Reports Indicate North Korea Behind Blast Sinking Navy Ship

A close-range blast appears to have sunk the South Korean ship Cheonan and killed 46 members of her crew and while reports indicate that there was an external cause, the South Koreans are not jumping at the opportunity to blame North Korea even as some defectors and South Koreans believe that a North Korean torpedo was responsible for the sinking. Still, the South Koreans are looking at whether a disgraced North Korean general won back his rank based on the outcome of a possible encounter with the Cheonan.

The ship had been raised from the murky depths and allows investigators to take a closer look at the damage to the hull in looking for clues as to how the ship sank. The following video shows about half of the ship raised - it appears to have been cleaved in half by the blast.

South Korean Navy Ship Sinking Near Maritime Border With North Korea

This is a developing situation along the tense border between North and South Korea. MSNBC is reporting that a South Korean navy ship is sinking near the maritime border with North Korea. The North has regularly complained that the South violates the border and there have been skirmishes between North and South Korean ships from time to time.

It isn't clear what caused the sinking.

Reuters reports the ship is carrying 100 sailors and that the North was bolstering its defenses after the South Koreans and US held joint drills earlier in the month.

That comes on the heels of a statement warning that the North would use its nuclear capabilities after learning of a report on the South Koreans and US preparing for possible instability following the demise of the North Korean regime.

"Those who seek to bring down the system in the (North), whether they play a main role or a passive role, will fall victim to the unprecedented nuclear strikes of the invincible army," North Korea's military said in comments carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

UPDATE:
Yonhap news is reporting the following:

1,500-ton ship carrying 104 crew members went down around 9:45 p.m. near a South Korean island in the Yellow Sea, prompting an emergency meeting of security-related Cabinet ministers.

Seoul's Navy officials refused to give details, but said a South Korean vessel fired at a ship toward the North later in the evening, indicating possibilities of a possible torpedo attack from the North. Local residents reported having heard gunfire for about 10 minutes from 11 p.m.

"The ship appears to have begun sinking after an explosion at the rear of the ship," the Navy said in a statement. "We have been unable to find the exact cause of the incident as of this moment."

The Navy said it has rescued 58 crew members during an ongoing rescue operation, but fears some may have died.

It also reports that the ship that was sinking had fired at an unidentified ship to a position north of where the ship sank.

UPDATE:
At least 46 South Korean navy personnel aren't accounted for according to the BBC. This isn't the first time the two Koreas have had border skirmishes or their navies exchanged fire, but it is the most serious incident in recent years.

2009: One North Korean sailor killed in a naval battle
2002: Four South Korean sailors and an estimated 30 North Koreans killed in a naval battle
1999: At least 17 North Korean sailors believed killed in naval fire fight
1998: South Korea captures a North Korean mini-submarine in its waters
1996: A North Korean submarine runs aground in South Korean waters

Right now, there's speculation that this was a North Korean torpedo responsible for the incident, but there's no confirmation one way or the other. It could have been a mine as these waters are heavily mined by the North Koreans to keep the South away.

China's biggest trading partner is the US - they aren't going to mess that relationship up over North Korea unlike the situation in the runup to the Korean War. China has quite a bit to lose with the North Koreans agitating for conflict. China is North Korea's biggest trading partner and isn't likely to let their militaristic and incomparably totalitarian neighbor drag it into a conflict with the US and South Korea, so expect them to exert whatever pressure they have on the North Korean regime to get this under control. The Chinese will want to prevent a mass exodus of refugees from the North. But just how much leverage the Chinese have over the regime in Pyongyang is uncertain.

UPDATE:
The South Koreans are downplaying the incident and reported that satellite information doesn't indicate a North Korean presence in the area.

North Korea Executes Worker For Transmitting Facts on the Ground

Roger Ebert. Movie critic. Mo-ron.

That link he posts on his twitter? It's about how a North Korean was executed by firing squad for using his cell phone to document prices of food and dire conditions in North Korea and transmitted to the outside world.

A North Korean factory worker has been executed by firing squad for sneaking news out of the country on his illicit mobile phone, Seoul-based radio said today.

The armaments factory worker was accused of divulging the price of rice and other information on living conditions to a friend who had defected to South Korea years ago, Open Radio for North Korea reported.

The man, surnamed Chong, made calls to the defector using an illegal Chinese mobile phone, according to an unnamed North Korean security agency official cited by the report.

The execution took place by firing squad in late January in Hamhung, according to Open Radio for North Korea. The station broadcasts into North Korea, which tightly controls news.

South Korea's unification ministry, which handles relations with North Korea, and the national intelligence service, Seoul's main spy agency, said they could not immediately confirm the report.

Mobile phone use in North Korea is tightly restricted, although the country introduced an advanced network in partnership with Cairo-based Orascom Telecom in 2008. North Koreans who manage to make illegal overseas mobile calls mostly use networks in China.

As I've repeatedly pointed out, the North Koreans use any and all means necessary to control the population and limit information that might show the true conditions in the country as well as what is going on elsewhere in the world (particularly South Korea).

For Ebert to make light of the situation is not only insensitive, but moronic. North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship where the people have no rights and can be consigned to the labor camps of the gulag archipelago at a moment's notice.

On My Nightstand: Nothing to Envy

I have often written that North Korea is little more than a gulag archipelago that puts the North Korean people at the mercy of a totalitarian regime that cares nothing about its people and only about its survival.

North Koreans have been fed a steady stream of propaganda for decades about the evils of the US, South Koreans, and capitalism. All the while, the industrial capability and technologies of North Korea fell decades behind their counterparts across the DMZ.

Then, things got worse. The country began to starve as crops failed and the government couldn't provide. Wages stopped being paid. Children died of malnourishment. Millions perished. Millions more were tossed into prison camps. They had nothing. They have nothing still.

Nothing to Envy by Barbara Demick tells the tale of a group of North Koreans who managed to escape a living hell behind the DMZ.

Border Skirmish Reported Off Coast of Korean Peninsula

The North Korean and South Korean governments are busy blaming the other for a naval gunbattle between their respective countries. The North claims that they repulsed an intrusion into a disputed area, while the South claims that the North Korean boat entered the disputed area and opened fire on the South Korean navy ships, which returned fire and set the North Korean ship ablaze:

he North claimed that a group of South Korean warships opened fire but fled after the North's patrol boat dealt "a prompt retaliatory blow." The statement, carried on the official Korean Central News Agency, said the South should apologize.

President Lee Myung-bak, who convened an emergency security meeting, ordered the South's defense minister to strengthen military readiness.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement that a North Korean patrol boat crossed the disputed western sea border about 11:27 a.m. (0227 GMT), drawing warning shots from a South Korean navy vessel. The North Korean boat then opened fire and the South's ship returned fire before the North's vessel sailed back toward its waters, the statement said.

The clash occurred near the South-held island of Daecheong, about 120 nautical miles (220 kilometers) off the port city of Incheon, west of Seoul, the statement said.

The North Korean ship was seriously damaged in the skirmish, a Joint Chiefs of Staff officer said on condition of anonymity, citing department policy. Prime Minister Chung Un-chan told lawmakers the ship was on fire when it fled north.

Lee, the commodore, said the shooting lasted for about two minutes, during which the North Korean ship fired about 50 rounds at the South Korean vessel, about two miles (3.2 kilometers) away. He said the South Korean ship was lightly damaged.

While there is a clearly demarcated DMZ separating the two countries on land, the sea border is still an open question.

All this comes at a time when the North Koreans are preparing to receive a US representative for one-on-one talks. The Obama Administration had finally agreed to those direct talks. I suspect that the North Korean regime was looking to see what it could get away with prior to the talks commencing, to gain a measure of the Obama Administration's resolve and interest in talking.

Iran and North Korea Playing World For Fools

Iran and North Korea were included in the Axis of Evil with good reason. They've been conspiring with each other for quite some time now. They've shared all manner of technology, including nuclear technologies, and now we learn that a major weapons shipment destined for Iran from North Korea was intercepted by the UAE.

he United Arab Emirates has seized a ship carrying North Korean-manufactured munitions, detonators, explosives and rocket-propelled grenades bound for Iran in violation of United Nations sanctions, diplomats said.

The UAE two weeks ago notified the UN Security Council of the seizure, according to the diplomats, who spoke on condition they aren’t named because the communication hasn’t been made public. They said the ship, owned by an Australian subsidiary of a French company and sailing under a Bahamian flag, was carrying 10 containers of arms disguised as oil equipment.

The council committee that monitors enforcement of UN sanctions against North Korea wrote letters to Iran and the government in Pyongyang asking for explanations of the violation, and one to the UAE expressing appreciation for the cooperation, the envoys said. No response has been received and the UAE has unloaded the cargo, they said.

The UAE and Iranian missions to the UN didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. The Financial Times reported the weapons seizure earlier today.

There are sanctions in place against North Korea, but that hasn't been stopping them from engaging in this kind of process. In fact, they tried shipping these weapons under the misnomer - machine parts.

In fact, North Korea seems to revel in playing the bad boy and continues its deadly games. North Korea attempted to ship weapons to Myanmar, but was thwarted by the US Navy.

These regimes feel free to continue engaging in this behavior because they know that the UN is incapable of stopping them, and the US appears unwilling to take any action stronger than referring the matter to the UN.