The latest battle in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas (Operation Protective Edge) continued without any sign of letup. Israel's military continues ground operations inside Gaza, while Hamas has continued firing rockets and missiles at Israel. Israeli ground forces have taken casualties while Gazan casualties continue to grow.
Thus far, Palestinians living in Gaza have taken the brunt of the fighting. There have been hundreds of casualties and it is still unclear just how many of them are civilians and how many have been Hamas fighters. Media outlets are relying almost exclusively on Hamas and PA sources for casualty counts, and Hamas has been notorious with lying about who was killed and conflating their casualties with civilians.
It is indisputable that Israel has hit civilians, including children in the course of the fighting and trying to hit at Hamas terrorists who are entrenched in urban areas and firing at Israel from within civilian areas. Israel reports that they've killed at least 270 terrorists, while the UN indicates that 479 have been killed overall, including 364 civilians, 76 militants, and 39 who they can't classify. Gaza's Health Ministry puts the tally at 632 killed and nearly 3,800 wounded.
It is also indisputable that Hamas has no problem firing from civilian positions including schools and UN facilities. For the second time in a week, the UNRWA has found rocket caches in one of their facilities.
https://twitter.com/lawhawk/status/491629164584112128
Hamas has become more brazen in where they're storing their weapons, all while their leaders cower in underground bunkers while Gazans who aren't connected with the leadership and don't have the means to protect themselves are taking the brunt of the damage with no where else to go.
It is also indisputable that but for Hamas firing rockets and missiles at Israel incessantly since even the last ceasefire in 2012 (all but one month had missile/mortar or rocket fire) that Israel would not have needed to invade Gaza once again after the latest rounds of barrages that have landed deep inside Israel, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
The FAA may have succeeded in doing what Hamas couldn't do directly. After firing missiles in the direction of Ben Gurion Airport, Delta Airlines and a quick succession of other airlines decided that they didn't want to put their planes in harms' way. The FAA then ordered US airlines to halt flights to and from Israel for 24 hours. Other airlines also followed suit.
The airlines rightfully don’t want to see their gear destroyed by the missiles or rockets, and that’ll be more than enough to keep them away though it is strange that they are not willing to fly into Israel but haven't had issues with flights to/from or over other war zones and conflict regions in recent years, including Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Ukraine (prior to the shoot down of Malaysian Air Flight 17).
The FAA order and its effect on the conflict can play out in one of two ways. It could force Israel to a ceasefire while Israel has not achieved its goals militarily so as to get flights to resume. If the flights remain shut down, it would have the effect of imposing economic harms on Israel (lost tourism/commerce) and indirectly strengthens Hamas’ hand.
However, the concern for Israel's economy is just as likely to move Israel to mount an even larger military campaign into Gaza so as to eliminate the threat to Israel's only international airport and crush Hamas' capabilities once and for all. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu is likely to opt for the latter, knowing that his country needs the influx of tourists to keep the economy going and a prolonged shutdown would have dire consequences. Israeli public opinion isn't going to take this kind of existential threat to their livelihood and country; they're going to press ahead with rooting out Hamas if it means eliminating the threat to Israel's airport.
Until now, the primary justification for the Israeli ground assault has been to root out the tunnels and bunkers Hamas has used to bring weapons into Gaza from Sinai, store the weapons, and to infiltrate into Israel. The missile attacks near Ben Gurion are the kind of justification that Israel could make to continue its fight inside Gaza - to eliminate the threat to Israel's economy and transportation networks that fighting to clear the tunnels from Gaza didn't. It would potentially provide the open-ended invitation for Israel to remain in Gaza, a region Israel unilaterally withdrew from in 2005 as no nation would ever allow its key transit locations to be under constant threat from missiles and bombs.
Meanwhile, the diplomats are trying to formulate yet another cease fire proposal. It's actually a joke at this point. Everyone knows that the ceasefire agreement is going to end up being the same as all the prior deals between Israel and Hamas. Both sides will promise not to fire on the other beginning at X. Once X plus a given period Y has occurred, Israel will promise Z and Hamas will need to reciprocate with A. The ceasefire deals are essentially fill-in-the-blank and you can substitute the times, dates, and in the end, all that is left are the casualties on both sides to be buried and hospitalized.
It's nice that the diplomats and EU members are calling on Hamas and other terror groups in Gaza to be disarmed, but there's no indication of how or who would do what they propose. Hamas seems to have an answer to that question - they’ll keep firing their munitions until they’ve expended their stockpiles. Israel will continue taking that fire until they have forced Hamas to expend all of its weapons.
Gazans will continue to suffer from Hamas actions and Israeli responses and both Israelis and Gazans will mourn their losses and curse Hamas. And that, unfortunately, is the takeaway.
Cross posted at LGF
Showing posts with label diplomacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label diplomacy. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Conflict Over Senkaku Islands Rooted In Centuries Of Disputes
The ongoing territorial dispute between China, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea over the Senkaku Islands didn't just materialize overnight. The dispute has its roots more than 800 years ago when China and Japan fought off invasions by the other.
It's a history of violence, bloodshed, and genocide, which extends all the way into the 20th century when Japan invaded China and Korea and killed hundreds of thousands of people (see the Rape of Nanking). The Chinese aren't particularly forgiving of those acts, while the Japanese are reluctant to acknowledge the war crimes committed by their imperial armies both before and during World War II.
The current dispute reaches back through history, but it also centers on modern needs for mineral and oil and gas resources believed to be located in the waters off the islands.
While Japan claims the islands as its own, and dates that back to the turn of the 20th Century, there are Japanese archives that indicate that the Meiji government recognized Chinese ownership of the islands. Intervening decades of conflict, occupation, and the end of WWII muddy the waters a bit, but the end of the war meant that Japan was required to surrender territories obtained from aggression and revert them to their pre-1895 legal status. That would have meant the islands would have reverted to Chinese control.
Japan recently purchased the islands from a private landowner, and that got China complaining about the actions. But China's not alone in claiming the islands as their own. Taiwan, which mainland China sees as its own rogue province and not an independent country, also claims the islands as its own and its fishing fleet has been scuffling with Japanese patrol boats in the waters off the islands.
The dispute has also meant China's sent its first aircraft carrier into the field. The reflagged ex-Varyag is seen as largely being a training ship to accustom the Chinese navy to potentially building its own native-built carriers, but it also indicates that the Chinese are willing to put military resources towards defending its territorial claims.
UPDATE:
It should be further noted that while China has sent the aircraft carrier into service, it does so without any aircraft capable of landing or taking off from the carrier, and it isn't likely to have that capability for several years. Of much more relevance to the current situation is the fact that the Chinese military has invested in developing long range cruise missiles capable of hitting naval targets - which could potentially include US Navy ships, as well as expanding its submarine fleet.
It's a history of violence, bloodshed, and genocide, which extends all the way into the 20th century when Japan invaded China and Korea and killed hundreds of thousands of people (see the Rape of Nanking). The Chinese aren't particularly forgiving of those acts, while the Japanese are reluctant to acknowledge the war crimes committed by their imperial armies both before and during World War II.
The current dispute reaches back through history, but it also centers on modern needs for mineral and oil and gas resources believed to be located in the waters off the islands.
While Japan claims the islands as its own, and dates that back to the turn of the 20th Century, there are Japanese archives that indicate that the Meiji government recognized Chinese ownership of the islands. Intervening decades of conflict, occupation, and the end of WWII muddy the waters a bit, but the end of the war meant that Japan was required to surrender territories obtained from aggression and revert them to their pre-1895 legal status. That would have meant the islands would have reverted to Chinese control.
Japan recently purchased the islands from a private landowner, and that got China complaining about the actions. But China's not alone in claiming the islands as their own. Taiwan, which mainland China sees as its own rogue province and not an independent country, also claims the islands as its own and its fishing fleet has been scuffling with Japanese patrol boats in the waters off the islands.
Though the islands are uninhabited, they are near coveted fishing grounds and potentially large gas reserves, and their status touches on historical grievances in East Asia dating to Japan’s behavior during and before World War II.Considering that all the countries involved have significant economic ties to the others, all should have reasons to see the dispute simmer down and end peacefully. However, the mineral and fishing resources are too good to pass up, and that's why everyone's disputing the ownership. There have been anti-Japanese riots in China, where Japanese-owned factories have shut down because of the violence. It's a volatile situation, and it's one that could get the United States involved - even if the US is trying to get things to settle down.
Taiwan’s government generally maintains friendly relations with Japan but activists there, as in mainland China and Hong Kong, have made their voices heard in the brewing dispute over the islands.
The Japanese public broadcaster, NHK, broadcast footage that showed a Japanese Coast Guard vessel blasting water at a Taiwanese fishing boat. Another Taiwanese boat tried to spray water back.
The Coast Guard said more than 40 Taiwanese fishing boats and eight patrol craft briefly approached the disputed islands. The boats had since left the waters, the coast guard said.
Tensions between Japan and China erupted earlier this year when the governor of Tokyo, a well-known nationalist, angered Chinese activists by announcing that he wanted to buy three of the disputed islands from their owner, a Japanese citizen. He said he believed that Japan’s central government was not doing enough to defend them.
The uproar over the governor’s threat prompted the central government to buy the islands instead — a move that Japanese officials stressed was to prevent them from falling into more provocative hands. But in China, the move was seen as an effort to assert Japanese control, setting off angry demonstrations. Some of the protesters attacked Japanese businesses.
In an effort to calm the dispute, Japan’s vice foreign minister, Chikao Kawai, met Tuesday in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart, Zhang Zhijun. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the two sides had talked about ways to handle the dispute but indicated that no substantive progress had been made.
The dispute has also meant China's sent its first aircraft carrier into the field. The reflagged ex-Varyag is seen as largely being a training ship to accustom the Chinese navy to potentially building its own native-built carriers, but it also indicates that the Chinese are willing to put military resources towards defending its territorial claims.
UPDATE:
It should be further noted that while China has sent the aircraft carrier into service, it does so without any aircraft capable of landing or taking off from the carrier, and it isn't likely to have that capability for several years. Of much more relevance to the current situation is the fact that the Chinese military has invested in developing long range cruise missiles capable of hitting naval targets - which could potentially include US Navy ships, as well as expanding its submarine fleet.
Friday, September 14, 2012
Mission Accomplished: Mystery Anti-Muslim Film Sows Violence Around World
If the intent of whoever was behind the mystery film was to disrupt US diplomatic missions around the world, mission accomplished.
The overdubbed video clips have taken on a life of their own and it's no longer about the video, but anger directed at the US for no reason other than it's the in-thing to do in places like Tunisia and Egypt. At a time when the economic conditions in those countries isn't improving after regime change, protesting against the US (and throw in the anti-Israel sentiments expressed in some) is a safe way to divert attention away from the inability to improve the economic conditions as fast as everyone wants.
Blaming the US is better than trying to create jobs in those countries. Claiming that the US engaged in blasphemy or somehow supports blasphemy is easier than trying to understand that free speech is a universal right and includes the right to say things that other groups might not like or want to hear or see, but it doesn't give anyone the right to blow stuff up or riot and destroy property. Free exercise of religion means not imposing your religious views on others, or other nations for that matter.
Those behind the film are agent provocateurs who sought to sow discord and create conflict. They achieved those goals, and now the US and those regimes in the Middle East and elsewhere these protests/riots are going on have to deal with the fallout.
One has to also wonder who benefits from the repercussions of these protests/riots/attacks. Iran definitely comes to mind, as do the regimes that replaced longstanding brutal regimes that did not tolerate dissent. This is something that has to be explored at greater depth.
Riots and protests are spreading to other countries, and the list now includes Tunisia, Lebanon (which happens to be where Pope Benedict is visiting on a diplomatic trip), Yemen, Bangladesh, and the German embassy in Khartoum Sudan has been torched. Jordan has also seen protests. Here's a map showing where those protests are underway.
But you know who hasn't seen the film or the clips - most of those protesting. It's a ginned up controversy and the film's creators/backers are still not fully known. And what's known about those involved thus far indicate that the producer was a convicted criminal and a shady character - a grifter being a most charitable term, while the director was incompetent and may not have known the plot/dialogue and the actors didn't know what they were doing or that the film was overdubbed afterwards to completely change the meaning and context of the scenes.
This situation smells, make that reeks, of the trajectory followed in the cartoon jihad that cost more than 100 lives across the world and resulted in embassies of several countries being attacked.
Once again, we have an obscure publication that gets picked up and within days is turned into a rallying cry for rioting and protests by Islamist leaders decrying the blasphemous acts and portrayals - urging death to those involved. Instead of the targets being embassies of the Danes, the nation of the Jyllands Posten, which published the cartoons originally, it's US diplomatic facilities are being targeted (and also Germany). In some instances, it appears that local governments are backing protests, while others - as in Libya - the government is actively trying to block the attacks/protests.
It may also be useful to try and distinguish between the terror attack that killed Ambassador Stevens and three other Americans in Libya and the protests/riots in Egypt and elsewhere. The attack in Libya appears to have been a preplanned attack to coincide with 9/11, while the protests elsewhere appear to be more closely related to the outrage over the mystery film. The film outrage may have spurred protests in Libya as well that were exploited by the attackers, but the scenario has blurred together into one mess that will take quite some time to sort out.
The overdubbed video clips have taken on a life of their own and it's no longer about the video, but anger directed at the US for no reason other than it's the in-thing to do in places like Tunisia and Egypt. At a time when the economic conditions in those countries isn't improving after regime change, protesting against the US (and throw in the anti-Israel sentiments expressed in some) is a safe way to divert attention away from the inability to improve the economic conditions as fast as everyone wants.
Blaming the US is better than trying to create jobs in those countries. Claiming that the US engaged in blasphemy or somehow supports blasphemy is easier than trying to understand that free speech is a universal right and includes the right to say things that other groups might not like or want to hear or see, but it doesn't give anyone the right to blow stuff up or riot and destroy property. Free exercise of religion means not imposing your religious views on others, or other nations for that matter.
Those behind the film are agent provocateurs who sought to sow discord and create conflict. They achieved those goals, and now the US and those regimes in the Middle East and elsewhere these protests/riots are going on have to deal with the fallout.
One has to also wonder who benefits from the repercussions of these protests/riots/attacks. Iran definitely comes to mind, as do the regimes that replaced longstanding brutal regimes that did not tolerate dissent. This is something that has to be explored at greater depth.
Riots and protests are spreading to other countries, and the list now includes Tunisia, Lebanon (which happens to be where Pope Benedict is visiting on a diplomatic trip), Yemen, Bangladesh, and the German embassy in Khartoum Sudan has been torched. Jordan has also seen protests. Here's a map showing where those protests are underway.
But you know who hasn't seen the film or the clips - most of those protesting. It's a ginned up controversy and the film's creators/backers are still not fully known. And what's known about those involved thus far indicate that the producer was a convicted criminal and a shady character - a grifter being a most charitable term, while the director was incompetent and may not have known the plot/dialogue and the actors didn't know what they were doing or that the film was overdubbed afterwards to completely change the meaning and context of the scenes.
This situation smells, make that reeks, of the trajectory followed in the cartoon jihad that cost more than 100 lives across the world and resulted in embassies of several countries being attacked.
Once again, we have an obscure publication that gets picked up and within days is turned into a rallying cry for rioting and protests by Islamist leaders decrying the blasphemous acts and portrayals - urging death to those involved. Instead of the targets being embassies of the Danes, the nation of the Jyllands Posten, which published the cartoons originally, it's US diplomatic facilities are being targeted (and also Germany). In some instances, it appears that local governments are backing protests, while others - as in Libya - the government is actively trying to block the attacks/protests.
It may also be useful to try and distinguish between the terror attack that killed Ambassador Stevens and three other Americans in Libya and the protests/riots in Egypt and elsewhere. The attack in Libya appears to have been a preplanned attack to coincide with 9/11, while the protests elsewhere appear to be more closely related to the outrage over the mystery film. The film outrage may have spurred protests in Libya as well that were exploited by the attackers, but the scenario has blurred together into one mess that will take quite some time to sort out.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Protests Continue Against Mystery Film; US Embassies On Alert
Protests continue in Egypt and now in Yemen against US embassies over the mysterious anti-Muslim film that set the actions of the past few days, including deadly attacks against the US mission in Libya that ended in the death of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans, plus another 30 injuries to both American and Libyans.
The million dollar question remains who was behind the film, what were their goals and aims, and how exactly an obscure film (which is really just a bunch of badly overdubbed film clips) that appears to have been uploaded in July, saw less than a few thousand hits since, exploded into the nexus of an international conflagration of attacks against US embassies in concert with 9/11. It appears that the film was overdubbed with anti-Muslim sentiments only eight days ago. Even then, it received little attention.
I don't believe in coincidences. Nor do I believe what anyone involved the movie has had to say thus far - because much of what they've said can't be confirmed by anyone. Sam Bacile doesn't appear to have existed except as a pseudonym/agent provocateur and a guy who had apparently come forward to claim that he was Bacile has recanted. Morris Sedak is an agitator whose motives are to foment war back in Egypt. Steve Klein has ties to extremist groups, but his involvement is only tangential to the overall story. The references to Jewish donors/backers/Israel is a misdirection play to try and bring the usual assortment of anti Jewish and anti-Israel sentiment to a head and to inflame passions even further.
Is it possible that AQ or another terror group took advantage of the protests in Egypt to use similar protests in Libya to carry out the deadly attacks there? Possibly, and the US government is looking at that possibility quite seriously.
The situation in Egypt also appears to have taken on a life of its own, and there are reports of protests elsewhere, including Yemen. This isn't necessarily by coincidence either. Whoever spread the anti-Muslim overdubbed versions basically did their own Hitler's Downfall-style routine to rant against Islam. We need to know who was behind the overdub, and at the same time, do more to track down who was responsible for the Libya attack and provide increased protection to our other embassies and consulates.
The US has got debunk the nonsense online that rabble rousers and militant mullahs are spreading to those who are now protesting/rioting - mostly without even seeing the film clips at issue or knowing; that's what many of the Administration and embassy statements refer to - protecting rights of free speech and freedom of religion, but that the two have to coexist without engaging in violence. It's not easy since the mindset of those who would protest and engage in violence are primed to act, and it confirms the biases of both those militant Islamists and socons who think Islam is an enemy of civilization. Extremists on both sides are exploiting the situation to their own ends, and one has to wonder who benefits from this.
That's why I keep going back to Iran. Iran has the means and stands to benefit from sowing violence and discord across the region - to tie up US and rival interests while Iran continues on its aggressive path.
As far as its impact on the US presidential election, the response from GOPer Mitt Romney and his supporters seems to be that the Obama Administration policy resulted in creating the environment allowing the attacks, the foreign policy amounts to apologia, and the response was inattentive and scattershot. Still, the main difference between Romney's policies and those of the Administration are one of tone, since Obama has largely carried over Bush Administration policies, including on dealing with international terrorism, going after those responsible for attacks on US interests around the world, and
The ambassador, J. Christopher Stevens, was missing almost immediately after the start of an intense, four-hour firefight for control of the mission, and his body was not located until Wednesday morning at dawn, when he was found dead at a Benghazi hospital, American and Libyan officials said. It was the first time since 1979 that an American ambassador had died in a violent assault.Libya says that they've arrested several people in connection with the attacks, and the US has sent a Marine FAST team to Libya. The US has also sent two warships (one already on station) and a drone unit to gather intel and to go after those responsible.
American and European officials said that while many details about the attack remained unclear, the assailants seemed organized, well trained and heavily armed, and they appeared to have at least some level of advance planning. But the officials cautioned that it was too soon to tell whether the attack was related to the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.
Fighters involved in the assault, which was spearheaded by a Islamist brigade formed during last year’s uprising against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, said in interviews during the battle that they were moved to attack the mission by anger over a 14-minute, American-made video that depicted the Prophet Muhammad, Islam’s founder, as a villainous, homosexual and child-molesting buffoon. Their attack followed by just a few hours the storming of the compound surrounding the United States Embassy in Cairo by an unarmed mob protesting the same video. On Wednesday, new crowds of protesters gathered outside the United States Embassies in Tunis and Cairo.
The wave of unrest set off by the video, posted online in the United States two months ago and dubbed into Arabic for the first time eight days ago, has further underscored the instability of the countries that cast off their longtime dictators in the Arab Spring revolts. It also cast doubt on the adequacy of security preparations at American diplomatic outposts in the volatile region.
The million dollar question remains who was behind the film, what were their goals and aims, and how exactly an obscure film (which is really just a bunch of badly overdubbed film clips) that appears to have been uploaded in July, saw less than a few thousand hits since, exploded into the nexus of an international conflagration of attacks against US embassies in concert with 9/11. It appears that the film was overdubbed with anti-Muslim sentiments only eight days ago. Even then, it received little attention.
I don't believe in coincidences. Nor do I believe what anyone involved the movie has had to say thus far - because much of what they've said can't be confirmed by anyone. Sam Bacile doesn't appear to have existed except as a pseudonym/agent provocateur and a guy who had apparently come forward to claim that he was Bacile has recanted. Morris Sedak is an agitator whose motives are to foment war back in Egypt. Steve Klein has ties to extremist groups, but his involvement is only tangential to the overall story. The references to Jewish donors/backers/Israel is a misdirection play to try and bring the usual assortment of anti Jewish and anti-Israel sentiment to a head and to inflame passions even further.
Is it possible that AQ or another terror group took advantage of the protests in Egypt to use similar protests in Libya to carry out the deadly attacks there? Possibly, and the US government is looking at that possibility quite seriously.
The situation in Egypt also appears to have taken on a life of its own, and there are reports of protests elsewhere, including Yemen. This isn't necessarily by coincidence either. Whoever spread the anti-Muslim overdubbed versions basically did their own Hitler's Downfall-style routine to rant against Islam. We need to know who was behind the overdub, and at the same time, do more to track down who was responsible for the Libya attack and provide increased protection to our other embassies and consulates.
The US has got debunk the nonsense online that rabble rousers and militant mullahs are spreading to those who are now protesting/rioting - mostly without even seeing the film clips at issue or knowing; that's what many of the Administration and embassy statements refer to - protecting rights of free speech and freedom of religion, but that the two have to coexist without engaging in violence. It's not easy since the mindset of those who would protest and engage in violence are primed to act, and it confirms the biases of both those militant Islamists and socons who think Islam is an enemy of civilization. Extremists on both sides are exploiting the situation to their own ends, and one has to wonder who benefits from this.
That's why I keep going back to Iran. Iran has the means and stands to benefit from sowing violence and discord across the region - to tie up US and rival interests while Iran continues on its aggressive path.
As far as its impact on the US presidential election, the response from GOPer Mitt Romney and his supporters seems to be that the Obama Administration policy resulted in creating the environment allowing the attacks, the foreign policy amounts to apologia, and the response was inattentive and scattershot. Still, the main difference between Romney's policies and those of the Administration are one of tone, since Obama has largely carried over Bush Administration policies, including on dealing with international terrorism, going after those responsible for attacks on US interests around the world, and
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Protesters Overrun US Embassy In Egypt Over Mysterious Movie
No one can actually verify what film the protesters are supposedly upset about which makes the protests against the US Embassy in Cairo all the more odd and disturbing. Reuters and USA Today can't seem to track down the film, but regardless of the facts and circumstances, a group of protesters set out to overrun the US Embassy in Cairo. They succeeded in taking down the US flag for a time and scrawling graffiti referring to not disgracing the name of the prophet Mohammad.
From Reuters:
So, the only "film" that could even fit the profile is some Internet production by Terry Jones who's got quite the reputation for hating Islam and showing a tremendous amount of religious intolerance.
That might be what they're protesting, but as with most kinds of protests across the Arab world, all it takes is a rumor for things to take hold, and no amount of debunking will stop things.
What we do know is that Egypt has been hit by several waves of sectarian violence since the fall of Hosni Mubarak and Coptic Christians have been under assault from Islamists who are asserting themselves at the Coptic Christians' expense.
UPDATE:
According to twitter links to this website provided by NJDhockeyfan, the name of the film is Life of King of Islam but there's no reference in IMDB.com. It was supposedly done by Sam Basil (again no reference in imdb), but they refer to Terry Jones' actions. There's also a reference to Dutch involvement, but it's not clear what is being referenced.
UPDATE:
The Atlantic seems to have run down more details, though there's way too much speculation about who is behind the film, their intentions, and other salient details.
A second American embassy has been besieged, this time in Libya. Libyan security forces have been fighting against unknown militias in the vicinity of the American embassy.
The AP reports that Morris Sadek is promoting the video on his website and on some television stations.
From Reuters:
"This movie must be banned immediately and an apology should be made ... This is a disgrace," said 19-year-old, Ismail Mahmoud, a member of the so-called "ultras" soccer supporters who played a big role in the uprising that brought down Hosni Mubarak last year.What's interesting is that you've got hundreds of people protesting a film allegedly being made in the US but not a single person can actually cite the name of the film. Moreover, it appears that FARS (Iran) is pushing the claim that Egyptian Coptic Christians are behind the film and fanning sectarian violence that will inevitably result from such claims.
Many Muslims consider any depiction of the Prophet to be offensive.
Mahmoud called on President Mohamed Mursi, Egypt's first civilian president and an Islamist, to take action. Many others were supporters of Islamist groups.
About 20 people stood on top of the embassy wall in central Cairo, where about 2,000 protesters had gathered.
"There is no god but Allah, Mohammad is Allah's messenger. We will sacrifice ourselves for you, Allah's messenger," they chanted, with many waving religious flags.
A U.S. embassy official had no immediate comment on the protesters' actions but the embassy had put out a statement earlier on Tuesday condemning those who hurt the religious feelings of Muslims or followers of any other religions.
"We firmly reject the actions by those who abuse the universal right of free speech to hurt the religious beliefs of others," the U.S. embassy said in its statement.
One slogan scrawled on the walls of the embassy, a fortress-like structure that is near Tahrir Square where Egyptians revolted against Mubarak, said: "If your freedom of speech has no limits, may you accept our freedom of action."
An Egyptian state website carried a statement by Egypt's Coptic Orthodox church condemning what it said were moves by some Copts living abroad "to finance the production of a film insulting Prophet Mohammad".
About a 10th of Egypt's 83 million people are Christians.
It was not immediately clear which film angered protesters.
However, according to the website www.standupamerianow.org, the Christian Pastor Terry Jones, who angered Muslims by burning a copy of the Koran, was due to take part in an event on Tuesday called "International Judge Mohammad Day" in Florida in which it would symbolically put the Prophet on trial and play it out live over the Internet.
"Respect for religious beliefs is a cornerstone of American democracy," the U.S. embassy statement said, adding that it condemned the efforts by "misguided individuals" to hurt the feelings of Muslims.
So, the only "film" that could even fit the profile is some Internet production by Terry Jones who's got quite the reputation for hating Islam and showing a tremendous amount of religious intolerance.
That might be what they're protesting, but as with most kinds of protests across the Arab world, all it takes is a rumor for things to take hold, and no amount of debunking will stop things.
What we do know is that Egypt has been hit by several waves of sectarian violence since the fall of Hosni Mubarak and Coptic Christians have been under assault from Islamists who are asserting themselves at the Coptic Christians' expense.
UPDATE:
According to twitter links to this website provided by NJDhockeyfan, the name of the film is Life of King of Islam but there's no reference in IMDB.com. It was supposedly done by Sam Basil (again no reference in imdb), but they refer to Terry Jones' actions. There's also a reference to Dutch involvement, but it's not clear what is being referenced.
UPDATE:
The Atlantic seems to have run down more details, though there's way too much speculation about who is behind the film, their intentions, and other salient details.
The movie is called Mohammed Nabi al-Muslimin, or Mohammed, Prophet of the Muslims. If you've never heard of it, that's because most of the few clips circulating online are dubbed in Arabic. The above clip, which is allegedly from the film (update: Kurt Werthmuller, a Coptic specialist at the Hudson Institute, says he's confirmed the clip's authenticity) is one of the only in English. That's also because it's allegedly produced by Florida Pastor Terry Jones (yes, the asshole who burnt the Koran despite Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates' pleas) and two Egyptians living in the U.S., according to Egyptian press accounts. The Egyptians are allegedly Coptic, the Christian minority that makes up about a tenth of Egypt.UPDATE:
Obviously, there's a lot to this story that's still unclear. What we do know is that some members of Egypt's sometimes-raucous, often rumor-heavy media have been playing highly offensive clips from the highly offensive film, stressing its U.S. and Coptic connections. In the clip below, controversial TV host Sheikh Khaled Abdallah (known for such statements as "Iran is more dangerous to us than the Jews" and that Tehran had engineered a deadly soccer riot in Port Said) hypes the film as an American-Coptic plot and introduces what he says is its opening scene.
A second American embassy has been besieged, this time in Libya. Libyan security forces have been fighting against unknown militias in the vicinity of the American embassy.
The AP reports that Morris Sadek is promoting the video on his website and on some television stations.
Morris Sadek, an Egyptian-born Christian in the United States known for his strongly anti-Islam views, said in an interview from Washington that he was promoting the video on his Web site and on certain television stations, which he did not identify.This has the feel of the cartoon jihad in the making - where more than 100 people were killed around the world, several embassies were ransacked and torched, and all because of the publication of cartoons in a Danish publication, Jyllands Posten.
He said the video “explains the problems of the Copts who suffer from Muslims,” for which he blamed the Koran.
For several days, the Egyptian news media have been reporting on the movie, playing excerpts and blaming Mr. Sadek for it, with ultraconservative clerics going on the air to denounce it.
Medhat Klada, a representative of Coptic Christian organizations in Europe, said Mr. Sadek’s views did not represent those of expatriate Copts.
“He is an extremist,” he said in an interview from Switzerland. “We refuse any attacks on religions because of a moral position.”
Friday, August 31, 2012
Syrian Civil War Update: Rebels Again Attack Assad's Security Compounds
Despite a relentless pounding from Syrian military and loyalist militias, the rebel forces continue to more than hold their own against a better equipped force. The rebels have once again attacked security compounds in Aleppo and also along the border with Iraq:
Part of that reason could be that Assad thinks that he's winning. Despite Assad losing control of significant portions of the country, he thinks his military has the upper hand against the rebel forces. That could be due in part to delusions of grandeur, his military leaders telling Assad what he wants to hear rather than what the situation on the ground really is, or that he believes that the crackdown is working to rid himself of the rebel threat via a meatgrinder.
Turkey is calling for a safe haven, which seems to be a step towards establishing a no-fly zone to protect Syrians from the onslaught of air attacks.
UN Secretary General called on Assad to stop using heavy weapons against civilian populations. The call will go unheeded, as Assad has repeatedly shown that his only interest is preserving his power, not human rights or arranging some form of power-sharing with the opposition.
France is looking at ways of funneling aid to those parts of Syria that are controlled by the rebel forces.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Friday that one of the assaults in Aleppo sparked a firefight that killed and wounded a number of government troops. It gave no figures.The fighting continues to inflict casualties on civilians and the war of words over Assad's backers continues as well. Egyptian leader Mohamed Morsi again attacked Iran over its support for the Assad regime during the meeting for nonaligned nations taking place in Tehran. Iran subsequently attacked Morsi for his calls for the nonaligned nations to act to bring the civil war to an end. Iranian officials have remained steadfast in their support of Assad.
Last month, rebel forces took control of parts of Syria's commercial hub, sparking fierce fighting there.
Also Friday, the monitoring group said government troops and rebels were locked in battle north of the capital, Damascus, and in Albu Kamal, on the Iraqi border. Internet video appeared to show fighting in Homs, Daraa and Damascus.
Part of that reason could be that Assad thinks that he's winning. Despite Assad losing control of significant portions of the country, he thinks his military has the upper hand against the rebel forces. That could be due in part to delusions of grandeur, his military leaders telling Assad what he wants to hear rather than what the situation on the ground really is, or that he believes that the crackdown is working to rid himself of the rebel threat via a meatgrinder.
Turkey is calling for a safe haven, which seems to be a step towards establishing a no-fly zone to protect Syrians from the onslaught of air attacks.
UN Secretary General called on Assad to stop using heavy weapons against civilian populations. The call will go unheeded, as Assad has repeatedly shown that his only interest is preserving his power, not human rights or arranging some form of power-sharing with the opposition.
France is looking at ways of funneling aid to those parts of Syria that are controlled by the rebel forces.
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Syrian Civil War Update: Even Bread Lines Aren't Safe From Assad's Attacks
Bashar al Assad is feeling the heat on all fronts. His security forces and loyalist goons can't stop the rebel forces from gaining and holding territory despite having a monopoly on air power and artillery. His backers remain at Iran, Russia, and China, and that may not be enough to keep him in power.
Egypt's new President Mohamad Morsi has called for an intervention in Syria and told Iran that it's thwarting a peaceful transition of power in Syria by backing Assad. Morsi called out Iran on Iran's home turf during a meeting of the non-aligned nations.
It's not surprising that Assad's diplomats walked out during Morsi's meeting. They have few friends among diplomats across the globe, and Morsi's criticism came on Syria's primary backer's doorstep.
Assad's regime keeps trying to play down the slow but steady stream of defectors, but the fact is that support for Assad within his regime isn't what it once was. The civil war rages on, the death toll mounts, and there is disillusionment with how Assad has handled everything - namely preserving power for himself at the expense of more than 20,000 lives across the country. The number of refugees is continuing to rise because the violence continues through the heart of Syria's urban areas. Those refugees are a problem not only for Syria, but the countries where they are seeking refuge. That is likely to inflame tensions and could potentially spur those countries, including Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan, to take action - closing down the border, military action against Syria, or demanding that the UN take more resolute action than weak worded resolutions that are teethless because Russia and China are blocking anything more constructive.
But most of all, his incessant attacks on civilians will take its toll. You cannot murder dozens of people by carrying out airstrikes against people queued up in lines for bread without all Syrians taking notice.
Dozens were killed when airstrikes over a period of days hit multiple breadlines in Aleppo.
Egypt's new President Mohamad Morsi has called for an intervention in Syria and told Iran that it's thwarting a peaceful transition of power in Syria by backing Assad. Morsi called out Iran on Iran's home turf during a meeting of the non-aligned nations.
It's not surprising that Assad's diplomats walked out during Morsi's meeting. They have few friends among diplomats across the globe, and Morsi's criticism came on Syria's primary backer's doorstep.
Assad's regime keeps trying to play down the slow but steady stream of defectors, but the fact is that support for Assad within his regime isn't what it once was. The civil war rages on, the death toll mounts, and there is disillusionment with how Assad has handled everything - namely preserving power for himself at the expense of more than 20,000 lives across the country. The number of refugees is continuing to rise because the violence continues through the heart of Syria's urban areas. Those refugees are a problem not only for Syria, but the countries where they are seeking refuge. That is likely to inflame tensions and could potentially spur those countries, including Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan, to take action - closing down the border, military action against Syria, or demanding that the UN take more resolute action than weak worded resolutions that are teethless because Russia and China are blocking anything more constructive.
But most of all, his incessant attacks on civilians will take its toll. You cannot murder dozens of people by carrying out airstrikes against people queued up in lines for bread without all Syrians taking notice.
Dozens were killed when airstrikes over a period of days hit multiple breadlines in Aleppo.
Syrian jets and artillery have struck at least 10 bakeries in Aleppo in the last three weeks, killing dozens of people as they waited in line to buy bread, Human Rights Watch said on Thursday, accusing the military of targeting civilians.That's a textbook example of war crimes and crimes against humanity carried out by the Assad regime. Assad's forces targeted civilian populations and fired indiscriminately on civilian populations. Assad must be held to account for his atrocities.
The U.S.-based group said the attacks were either aimed at or were done without care to avoid the hundreds of civilians forced to queue outside a dwindling number of bakeries in Syria's biggest city, a front line in the civil war.
"The attacks are at least recklessly indiscriminate and the pattern and number of attacks suggest that government forces have been targeting civilians," Human Rights Watch (HRW) said.
"Both reckless indiscriminate attacks and deliberately targeting civilians are war crimes."
One attack on August 16 killed around 60 people and wounded more than 70, said HRW, which sent a researcher to the embattled city.
Food shortages in Aleppo - a focal point of the 17-month-old uprising against President Bashar al-Assad - have forced many bakeries to close, meaning huge queues for the food staple outside the remaining shops.
"Day after day, Aleppo residents line up to get bread for their families, and instead get shrapnel piercing their bodies from government bombs and shells," said Ole Solvang, the HRW researcher who visited Aleppo.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Is Assad's Regime On Verge of Collapsing?
According to the recently defected former Prime Minister Riyad Hijab, Bashar al-Assad's regime controls no more than 30% of the country and it's on the verge of collapsing.
It also appears that Assad's brother was grievously injured in that July 18 bombing. A Russian minister also indicated that Assad's willing to give up power:
There are also indications that Russia and Iran are busy propping up Assad's regime, even as Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are assisting the rebels.
At the same time, al Qaeda and other terror groups, including Hizbullah are looking to fill the power vacuum, which is something that Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Israel are all keenly hoping to avoid.
Meanwhile, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation suspended Syria from its membership as another UN official envoy is visiting Syria so as to draw attention to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Syria. The UN mission will fail just as surely as Kofi Annan's attempts did; Assad has no intention of giving up power, or stopping the violence, and rebel forces are just as unwilling to stop their own efforts as they continue to maintain and gain territory, even if those gains come at a significant humanitarian cost or that retribution for being part of Assad's government includes war crimes and crimes against humanity.
“Based on my experience and my position, the regime is falling apart morally, materially, economically,” the former official, Riyad Farid Hijab, said at a news conference in Amman, Jordan. “Its military is rusting, and it only controls 30 percent of Syria’s territory.”There's no way to know for sure just how secure Assad's regime is, but there have been indications that Assad's lost control of vast swaths of the country. His security forces have been hard pressed to retain control of Syria's two biggest cities - Damascus and Aleppo. Rebels managed to assassinate key security members in a bombing several weeks ago. There have been a steady but increasing stream of defections, including Hijab.
He added that many high-level civilian and military officials in Syria — “leaders with dignity” — were waiting to defect. Mr. Hijab said he fled the Syrian capital, Damascus, because the government threatened his family and had no reasonable means to end the violence. He also urged the opposition to unify and to move ahead with plans for a transitional government and “a civilian democratic state that preserves the right, justice and dignity of all Syrians.”
But he said he had no interest in a formal position. “I have sacrificed myself in the campaign of righteousness,” he said. “I don’t want to satisfy anyone but God.”
Mr. Hijab’s claims about the weakness of the Assad government could not be independently verified, and he gave few details to support his harsh assessment. A Sunni technocrat from the eastern city of Deir al-Zour — which has been enduring shelling and fighting for weeks — Mr. Hijab was not a member of Mr. Assad’s inner circle, and he was appointed to the position of prime minister only in June.
It also appears that Assad's brother was grievously injured in that July 18 bombing. A Russian minister also indicated that Assad's willing to give up power:
Quoting Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, the newspaper reported that Maher Assad's condition "is very serious and he is fighting for his life."However, Assad's security forces continue the bloodletting and no one within the security establishment is willing to tell Assad that his time is done for the sake of all Syrians. He's apparently content to continue the violence to preserve his power. The Russians have moved to deny Bogdanov's claims, which further suggests that Assad isn't going anywhere - at least for now. They claim that Bogdanov never gave any interview to al-Watan, which other media outlets quickly re-reported.
The July blast took place during a high-level meeting at the state security ministry in the capital. Among those killed were Defense Minister Daoud Rajha, former Defense Minister Hassan Turkmani, and Assad brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, who served as the country's deputy defense minister. The suicide attack was carried out by a bodyguard for the president's inner circle, a Syrian security source said at the time. Until now it was unclear whether Maher Assad had attended the meeting.
Bogdanov added that President Assad is prepared to give up power, according to the Al-Watan report. "We ask that this issue be dealt with quickly to bring about a solution to the crisis," he said. "We are speaking with the opposition and the Syrian government on a daily basis."
There are also indications that Russia and Iran are busy propping up Assad's regime, even as Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are assisting the rebels.
At the same time, al Qaeda and other terror groups, including Hizbullah are looking to fill the power vacuum, which is something that Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Israel are all keenly hoping to avoid.
Meanwhile, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation suspended Syria from its membership as another UN official envoy is visiting Syria so as to draw attention to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Syria. The UN mission will fail just as surely as Kofi Annan's attempts did; Assad has no intention of giving up power, or stopping the violence, and rebel forces are just as unwilling to stop their own efforts as they continue to maintain and gain territory, even if those gains come at a significant humanitarian cost or that retribution for being part of Assad's government includes war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Tuesday, August 07, 2012
More Defections as Casualties Climb Across Syria
The butchers' bill continues rising courtesy of Bashar al-Assad's security forces as they attempt to rebuff rebel forces in Aleppo and other parts of Syria. The security forces aren't exactly distinguishing themselves in anything other than running up a body count.
There have been an increasing number of defections, including another general among those seeking refuge in Turkey today. The rebel forces are trying to maintain support among the civilian population, but with a renewed military offensive, they are unavoidably putting them all in harm's way. The rebels continue to hold on to territory and Assad cannot allow that to continue.
Aleppo was strafed by Syrian air force planes and bombarded by artillery to the point that UN observers were forced to leave the city for fear for their own safety. They had that option; Syrians are between a rock and hard place. They could stay and try to ride out the fighting, but they could face being killed by fire coming from either the rebels or the military. Or, they could attempt to make a run for one of border countries, in which case they could get hit on the way or face an uncertain future as to when they could return. It's a humanitarian nightmare, and it's not going to improve anytime soon.
Aleppo has apparently been surrounded by Syrian forces, and it's likely to result in still higher casualties across the city. It appears that Assad's forces are content with aerial bombardment and artillery strikes rather than a ground offensive thus far.
Assad made his first television appearance today, when he appeared in a video alongside an Iranian diplomat.
Even as the fighting rages on, the US and others are already contemplating a post-Assad Syria. They are looking at how to avoid the very messy situations in Libya or Iraq, though I doubt anyone can prevent a sectarian conflict as Sunnis seek retribution against the Alawites and Assad loyalists who have run Syria for more than 40 years. Syria has been a police state where you would be disappeared if your loyalty was questioned. There will be demands for accountability among those involved in the Syrian security apparatus.
Meanwhile, the cyberwar between loyalists and rebel forces has spread to sites including Reuters.
There have been an increasing number of defections, including another general among those seeking refuge in Turkey today. The rebel forces are trying to maintain support among the civilian population, but with a renewed military offensive, they are unavoidably putting them all in harm's way. The rebels continue to hold on to territory and Assad cannot allow that to continue.
Rebel headquarters in the north-east of Aleppo were bombed again this morning. The building has been attacked three times now. One bomb missed the building, hit a nearby house, killed 10 people. Another this morning hit a hospital, killed another 10. A third hit a wedding hall and no one was injured. Two bombs did hit their target inside the headquarters, but neither exploded. Nonetheless it was time for the rebels to move on. They had lost the patience of neighbours who weren’t too happy about their neighbourhood being relentless targeted by jets above. They’ve move but there has been more bombing in areas they’ve moved to. So there has been no let up in this siege.
Aleppo was strafed by Syrian air force planes and bombarded by artillery to the point that UN observers were forced to leave the city for fear for their own safety. They had that option; Syrians are between a rock and hard place. They could stay and try to ride out the fighting, but they could face being killed by fire coming from either the rebels or the military. Or, they could attempt to make a run for one of border countries, in which case they could get hit on the way or face an uncertain future as to when they could return. It's a humanitarian nightmare, and it's not going to improve anytime soon.
Aleppo has apparently been surrounded by Syrian forces, and it's likely to result in still higher casualties across the city. It appears that Assad's forces are content with aerial bombardment and artillery strikes rather than a ground offensive thus far.
Assad made his first television appearance today, when he appeared in a video alongside an Iranian diplomat.
Even as the fighting rages on, the US and others are already contemplating a post-Assad Syria. They are looking at how to avoid the very messy situations in Libya or Iraq, though I doubt anyone can prevent a sectarian conflict as Sunnis seek retribution against the Alawites and Assad loyalists who have run Syria for more than 40 years. Syria has been a police state where you would be disappeared if your loyalty was questioned. There will be demands for accountability among those involved in the Syrian security apparatus.
Meanwhile, the cyberwar between loyalists and rebel forces has spread to sites including Reuters.
On Sunday, it was a hijacked Reuters twitter feed trying to create the impression of a rebel collapse in Aleppo. On Monday, it was another account purporting to be a Russian diplomat announcing the death in Damascus of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.Expect a whole lot more of this as Assad's forces attempt to counter all the negative press coming from their ongoing attacks against the rebel forces, while the rebels attempt to counter that with their own propaganda.
As the situation on the ground becomes ever more bloody, both sides in Syria are also waging what seems to be an intensifying conflict in cyberspace, often attempting to use misinformation and rumor to tilt the war in reality.
On Friday, Reuters was forced to temporarily shut down its system for posting blogs on www.Reuters.com after the appearance of a series of unauthorized, and inaccurate, reports citing opposition military reverses in Syria.
On Sunday, the company took similar action to suspend the @ReutersTech twitter account after it appeared to have been seized, renamed and used to send a series of false tweets apparently designed to undermine the rebel Free Syrian Army. Both incidents remain under investigation.
The attacks were not the first time a major media or other organization had been targeted apparently by supporters of Assad. Some - including the defacement of a Harvard University website last year to post a picture of Assad in military uniform -- have been claimed by the "Syrian Electronic Army".
Monday, August 06, 2012
As Civil War Rages On, Syrian Foreign Minister Defects to Jordan
This is potentially a significant turning point in the ongoing Syrian civil war. The Syrian prime minister Riyad Hijab has defected to Jordan, although Bashar al-Assad's media outlets claim he was fired:
Either way, it would seem to indicate that Assad's loyalists are beginning to doubt that Assad's regime and his grip on power will continue. It could be a sign that the defectors are hoping for a spot in whatever government emerges to take Assad's place down the line, or at least survive without fear of sectarian retribution from Assad's opposition. It would also indicate that Assad's support is thinning and that he could face a coup should his higher ranking military officials band together to preserve their own positions by sacrificing Assad. After all, that's how the current situation in Egypt developed (street protests and unending violence led to Hosni Mubarak being sacked by the military that turned on him).
The fighting continues around the country, including in Damascus, where a bomb blast hit the state run television station.
At the same time, a group of Iranian "pilgrims" were captured by rebel forces. Iran has sought their release, but the rebel group claims that Iranian military officers were among those captured.
President Bashar al-Assad fired his prime minister on Monday, Syria’s official media reported, as activists countered that he had defected with several officials and military commanders in what seemed a further indication of disarray among government loyalists following a series of high-level defections and a rebel bomb attack last month that killed four of the Syrian leader’s closest security aides.There have been a series of defections by various diplomats and several generals, but this is the highest ranking official to have done so. There have been mixed reports about whether Hijab was in Jordan or not, but it would appear that he's definitely out of the government. The question would be whether it was of his own accord or he was pushed out.
Amid a rush of jubilation, opposition figures said Prime Minister Riyad Farid Hijab had defected to neighboring Jordan along with at least two ministers and three military officers — 10 families in all, opposition leaders said. Al Jazeera television carried what it said was a statement from a spokesman for Mr. Hijab saying he had “joined the ranks of the freedom and dignity revolution.”
Mr. Hijab appeared to be the highest ranking civilian official to defect since the conflict started 17 months ago. The announcement of his dismissal by Syria’s official media came hours after a bomb explosion was reported at the main state television building in Damascus, the capital, while fighting raged in Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, and other parts of the country.
“We welcome the defection,” said Mohammed Sarmini, a spokesman for the Syrian National Council, the main opposition group, based in Turkey. “It’s not the only one and there will be more. This is proof that the regime is collapsing.
Either way, it would seem to indicate that Assad's loyalists are beginning to doubt that Assad's regime and his grip on power will continue. It could be a sign that the defectors are hoping for a spot in whatever government emerges to take Assad's place down the line, or at least survive without fear of sectarian retribution from Assad's opposition. It would also indicate that Assad's support is thinning and that he could face a coup should his higher ranking military officials band together to preserve their own positions by sacrificing Assad. After all, that's how the current situation in Egypt developed (street protests and unending violence led to Hosni Mubarak being sacked by the military that turned on him).
The fighting continues around the country, including in Damascus, where a bomb blast hit the state run television station.
At the same time, a group of Iranian "pilgrims" were captured by rebel forces. Iran has sought their release, but the rebel group claims that Iranian military officers were among those captured.
Syrian rebels said a group of people captured near Damascus included members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, according to a video broadcast by Al Arabiya, as fighting raged outside the capital and in Aleppo.This isn't the first time that Iranian pilgrims have been captured, and it certainly isn't the first time that the rebels have claimed that Iranian military officials were among those captured. It certainly is plausible that the rebels are on the mark with their claims, but there's no way to independently verify the claims.
The claim contradicted Iranian descriptions of the abducted people as pilgrims. Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi urged Turkey and Qatar, which have backed the Syrian opposition, to help release the captives, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported. IRNA said 48 pilgrims were abducted.
Shiite Muslim-led Iran has been the closest regional ally of President Bashar al-Assad’s government, which is dominated by officials from the Alawite sect, affiliated with Shiite Islam. Turkey and Qatar are largely Sunni Muslim states, and the rebels are largely drawn from the Sunni majority.
Friday, August 03, 2012
Assad Preparing For Aleppo Assault as Civil War Rages On
Reports indicate that Bashar al-Assad's forces are preparing for a ground offensive against rebel-held areas of Aleppo. That will most certainly increase the casualties significantly over the already high tallies seen across the country in recent weeks.
Assad's looking out for one thing - to remain in power at all costs. That means paying lip service to the diplomats all while crushing those opposed to him. The burden falls on Syrians who can't get out of the way of the violence, or who have declared allegiance to one side or the other.
Meanwhile, the NY Times reports Assad's forces are bedeviled by the fact that they're not prepared to deal with an insurrection where rebel forces (the Free Syrian Army and other unaffiliated groups) are able to mount coordinated attacks and capture some of the same weapons for use against the Syrian army. It's a situation that the Libyan military faced when Mumar Khadafi sought to crush the rebellion-turned-civil war and that the Egyptian military faced when Hosni Mubarak sought to stop the protests against his regime.
However, one shouldn't feel sorry for Assad because his military is having a tough time dealing with the rebel forces. It appears that even with a tactical advantage in the air (from helicopters and jets), it's just enough for Assad's forces to maintain the status quo. The Syrian military wasn't known for having a high state of preparedness to begin with, so equipment that was unreliable to start has only become more so. That's one of the reasons those helicopters that the Russians were refurbishing was so valued by the regime. They needed them to fill in for those that were already flying missions to support Assad's loyalists on the ground.
If he can't resupply and rearm, then the rebels will gain the upper hand and leave Assad with fewer and fewer options for how to retain power. It potentially opens the door for Assad to use chemical or biological weapons as a last ditch effort to crush the opposition though he claims that he wouldn't use it against the Syrian people (even as he calls the fighters arrayed against him foreign terror groups and proxies of the US and/or Israel, Syria, Qatar or others).
Meanwhile, Russia has dispatched more ships and ground forces to their port in Tartus; they are claiming that they are there to protect Russia's personnel and infrastructure at the port.
Rebel forces have again claimed that the regime carried out massacres in Hama, while both sides are blaming the other for a mortar attack against a Palestinian refugee camp that killed nearly 2 dozen civilians.
Syria on Friday amassed troops in the northern city of Aleppo in preparation for an onslaught on rebel-held areas and the opposition reported a massacre in the central city of Hama.The UN is hobbled by a split Security Council - the Russians and Chinese are blocking everything related to Syria, up to and including even weak-worded condemnation of the violence. Kofi Annan admitted as much when he declared his mission to implement a peace deal was a failure and that he was stepping down as envoy to Syria effective at the end of the month.
Opposition activists said more than 62 people, including women and children, were killed in a massacre committed by forces loyal to President Bashar Assad in Hama. The claim by the Local Coordination Committees could not be independently verified.
In Aleppo, Syria's main commercial center, the Syrian army sent more troops and tanks to break a stalemate in fighting with rebels holding out for six days in opposition areas mainly in the east and southwest of the city near the border with Turkey.
"Dozens of trucks loaded with troops and backed by more than 100 tanks are being positioned around Aleppo," Abu Omar al-Halabi, a commander in the rebel Free Syrian Army, told dpa by phone.
Assad's looking out for one thing - to remain in power at all costs. That means paying lip service to the diplomats all while crushing those opposed to him. The burden falls on Syrians who can't get out of the way of the violence, or who have declared allegiance to one side or the other.
Meanwhile, the NY Times reports Assad's forces are bedeviled by the fact that they're not prepared to deal with an insurrection where rebel forces (the Free Syrian Army and other unaffiliated groups) are able to mount coordinated attacks and capture some of the same weapons for use against the Syrian army. It's a situation that the Libyan military faced when Mumar Khadafi sought to crush the rebellion-turned-civil war and that the Egyptian military faced when Hosni Mubarak sought to stop the protests against his regime.
However, one shouldn't feel sorry for Assad because his military is having a tough time dealing with the rebel forces. It appears that even with a tactical advantage in the air (from helicopters and jets), it's just enough for Assad's forces to maintain the status quo. The Syrian military wasn't known for having a high state of preparedness to begin with, so equipment that was unreliable to start has only become more so. That's one of the reasons those helicopters that the Russians were refurbishing was so valued by the regime. They needed them to fill in for those that were already flying missions to support Assad's loyalists on the ground.
If he can't resupply and rearm, then the rebels will gain the upper hand and leave Assad with fewer and fewer options for how to retain power. It potentially opens the door for Assad to use chemical or biological weapons as a last ditch effort to crush the opposition though he claims that he wouldn't use it against the Syrian people (even as he calls the fighters arrayed against him foreign terror groups and proxies of the US and/or Israel, Syria, Qatar or others).
Meanwhile, Russia has dispatched more ships and ground forces to their port in Tartus; they are claiming that they are there to protect Russia's personnel and infrastructure at the port.
Rebel forces have again claimed that the regime carried out massacres in Hama, while both sides are blaming the other for a mortar attack against a Palestinian refugee camp that killed nearly 2 dozen civilians.
Friday, July 20, 2012
Rebels Pushed Back In Damascus As They Gain Ground Elsewhere
Bashar al Assad's Syrian military has managed to push back an offensive by rebel forces in the capital of Damascus. It was not without a heavy toll in civilian casualties, which seems to be the norm in the fighting there.
Artillery attacks and airstrikes from helicopters are causing significant damage across the city, particularly in the area of Midan:
At the same time pitched battles are occurring in Damascus, rebel forces claimed to have captured border crossings on both the Turkish and Iraqi borders. That's a significant development since it would enable the rebel forces to regroup and rearm more freely. The rebels were claiming to have briefly held the Turkish border crossing before withdrawing from the area because of concerns over the Syrian military's capabilities in that area; they did so for propaganda purposes.
Meanwhile, there are conflicting reports that the Russians have been informed that Assad's willing to step down. That would be news to the Syrian media, which is controlled by Assad, that denied the allegations.
At the same time, a shipment of Syrian-owned refurbished attack helicopters have been offloaded from a Russian cargo ship back in Russia. These aren't new Syrian helicopters, but were part of a deal between the two countries for Syria to refurbish them and had been a part of a row with the US over arming the Assad regime; it would seem the Russians backed away from precipice.
Artillery attacks and airstrikes from helicopters are causing significant damage across the city, particularly in the area of Midan:
On Thursday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in Britain, said a group of rebel fighters claimed to have routed government soldiers in a section of Midan neighborhood, taking over a piece of one of the city’s oldest neighborhoods. The claim, like most of the reports of fighting and of casualties, could not be independently confirmed.Neither side appears to bother with worrying about collateral damage; we're talking about heavy combat in a dense urban setting.
But on Friday Syrian state media and the Syrian Observatory said government forces, fighting back with a superior military machine pitted against an opposition still working predominantly with small-caliber weapons, had retaken Midan, while the number of dead in fighting across the land on Thursday was reported to have risen above 300. Of the dead, 98 were soldiers, 139 civilians and 65 rebels, rebels said.
The figures updated earlier estimates by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights for the death toll on Thursday, claiming that 155 civilians and 93 government soldiers were killed, including nearly 60 civilians in and around Damascus.
The latest tally was among the highest — if not the highest — claimed in a single day since the revolt began in March 2011. It could not be independently corroborated because of the difficulties and restrictions on independent news gathering in Syria.
Claiming victory in Midan, Syrian state television declared: “Our brave army forces have completely cleaned the area of Midan in Damascus of the remaining mercenary terrorists and have re-established security.” Rebels said they had staged a “tactical withdrawal” from Midan to avert civilian casualties.
At the same time pitched battles are occurring in Damascus, rebel forces claimed to have captured border crossings on both the Turkish and Iraqi borders. That's a significant development since it would enable the rebel forces to regroup and rearm more freely. The rebels were claiming to have briefly held the Turkish border crossing before withdrawing from the area because of concerns over the Syrian military's capabilities in that area; they did so for propaganda purposes.
Meanwhile, there are conflicting reports that the Russians have been informed that Assad's willing to step down. That would be news to the Syrian media, which is controlled by Assad, that denied the allegations.
Russia's ambassador to France said Friday that he believes Syria's president is ready to step down "in a civilized way." But the Syrian government immediately denied it.Russia has been busy propping up the Assad regime all while claiming it wasn't doing so. They have repeatedly blocked any United Nations actions, particularly under Chapter VII that allows the use of military force. Yesterday, they, along with the Chinese vetoed tougher sanctions against the regime. That move clearly indicates an intention to prop up the regime, and that spells bad news for Russia when the regime finally is overthrown. The Syrian people aren't going to forget who was involved in propping up the regime or that the Russians, along with the Chinese and Iranians don't have the well being of the Syrian people in mind when they're busy propping up a murderous tyrant. Russia could well lose one of its last remaining allies/clients in the Middle East if Assad falls.
Alexander Orlov said that Bashar Assad's acceptance of an international agreement in June for a transition toward a more democratic regime, and his subsequent step of naming a representative to negotiate the transition, meant that he was prepared to give up leadership.
The country is sliding into even further chaos, with fighting around the capital Damascus intensifying two days after the inner circle of Assad's regime was hit by an attack that killed three top Syrian defense officials.
"Personally ... I think it will be difficult for him to stay in office given everything that's happened," Orlov said in an interview with Radio France Internationale.
Orlov spoke a day after Moscow vetoed a Western-backed U.N. resolution aimed at pressuring President Bashar Assad's government to end the war. Friday was the deadline for the U.N. to renew its 300-member observer mission in Syria, or let the mandate expire.
At the same time, a shipment of Syrian-owned refurbished attack helicopters have been offloaded from a Russian cargo ship back in Russia. These aren't new Syrian helicopters, but were part of a deal between the two countries for Syria to refurbish them and had been a part of a row with the US over arming the Assad regime; it would seem the Russians backed away from precipice.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Striking at the Heart of Assad's Regime
Fighting has intensified in and around Damascus over the past couple of days, but today's news is breathtaking in its consequences. A suicide bomber, who apparently was a bodyguard, blew up at a meeting of high ranking security officials.
Bashar al-Assad's brother in law and defense minister were killed in the blast. At the same time several reports indicate that more generals have defected.
It's premature to call this the beginning of the end of Assad's regime, but it's the beginning of the next phase in the ongoing civil war. Considering that those involved plotting in the brutal crackdown were among those killed, it's going to be interesting to see the strategy that Assad uses going forward. Considering how ignorant Assad is of the plight of his countrymen, I fully expect him to further intensify the crackdown and brutalization of the Syrian people.
We're already seeing that there is widespread shelling of civilian areas, as BBC reports.
The more that he uses violence, the more the country realizes that Assad has got to go. We're already seeing some of those dividends as more military leaders defect rather than stay and fight against their fellow countrymen.
The British Foreign Secretary, in condemning the bombing that took out Assad's defense ministers, also used it as an opportunity to again assert that the UN needs to act under Chapter VII (using force) to solve the crisis there.
Russia continues blocking UN Chapter VII-type actions, but it's again reiterating that it will not prop up Assad. That's rather duplicitous of them, considering that Assad is being propped up by Russia by their stubborn refusal to offer up Assad a golden parachute to exile that avoids the ignominious end that met the likes of Mumar Khadafi.
UPDATE:
I don't have a crystal ball about what will happen, but it might be instructive to look at Yemen's civil war/insurrection for guidance. There, Ali Abdullah Saleh was hit in a bombing and forced to leave the country for medical treatment but he and his regime never broke and he was able to return. The endgame there was that on January 22, 2012, the Yemeni parliament passed a law that granted Saleh immunity from being prosecuted and he left Yemen for treatment in the United States. Saleh stepped down and formally ceded power to his deputy Abd Rabbuh Mansur Al-Hadi and Al-Hadi will be a caretaker for the government as a new constitution is drafted and new elections are scheduled for 2014. However, the security situation there remains dire as the government is locked in a battle with al Qaeda.
UPDATE:
Video is streaming showing fighting on the streets in Damascus despite propaganda video shown by Assad's media outlets attempting to show calm:
Bashar al-Assad's brother in law and defense minister were killed in the blast. At the same time several reports indicate that more generals have defected.
The assassinations were the first of such high-ranking members of the power elite in the 17-month revolt against Mr. Assad’s rule, and could represent a turning point in the conflict, analysts said, confirming that opposition forces have been marshaling their strength to strike at the close-knit centers of state power.The Free Syrian Army has claimed responsibility and that they were able to infiltrate the ministry building shows that the opposition has managed to infiltrate the regime and its security measures.
According to state television, the dead included the defense minister, Daoud Rajha, and Asef Shawkat, the president’s brother-in-law who was the deputy chief of staff of the Syrian military. But the television report rejected claims by activists that the minister of the interior also was killed, saying he remained alive and in stable condition.
The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said all the members of the crisis group set up by President Assad to try to put down the revolt were are either dead or injured. But there was no official confirmation of that account.
With tensions already high in Damascus after three days of clashes between the Syrian Army and rebels near the city center, SANA, the official news agency, described the assault as a “suicide terrorist attack.” Opponents claimed a major victory.
“The Syrian regime has started to collapse,” said the activist who heads the Syrian Observatory. “There was fighting for three days inside Damascus, it was not just a gun battle, and now someone has killed or injured all these important people.”
It's premature to call this the beginning of the end of Assad's regime, but it's the beginning of the next phase in the ongoing civil war. Considering that those involved plotting in the brutal crackdown were among those killed, it's going to be interesting to see the strategy that Assad uses going forward. Considering how ignorant Assad is of the plight of his countrymen, I fully expect him to further intensify the crackdown and brutalization of the Syrian people.
We're already seeing that there is widespread shelling of civilian areas, as BBC reports.
The more that he uses violence, the more the country realizes that Assad has got to go. We're already seeing some of those dividends as more military leaders defect rather than stay and fight against their fellow countrymen.
The British Foreign Secretary, in condemning the bombing that took out Assad's defense ministers, also used it as an opportunity to again assert that the UN needs to act under Chapter VII (using force) to solve the crisis there.
Russia continues blocking UN Chapter VII-type actions, but it's again reiterating that it will not prop up Assad. That's rather duplicitous of them, considering that Assad is being propped up by Russia by their stubborn refusal to offer up Assad a golden parachute to exile that avoids the ignominious end that met the likes of Mumar Khadafi.
UPDATE:
I don't have a crystal ball about what will happen, but it might be instructive to look at Yemen's civil war/insurrection for guidance. There, Ali Abdullah Saleh was hit in a bombing and forced to leave the country for medical treatment but he and his regime never broke and he was able to return. The endgame there was that on January 22, 2012, the Yemeni parliament passed a law that granted Saleh immunity from being prosecuted and he left Yemen for treatment in the United States. Saleh stepped down and formally ceded power to his deputy Abd Rabbuh Mansur Al-Hadi and Al-Hadi will be a caretaker for the government as a new constitution is drafted and new elections are scheduled for 2014. However, the security situation there remains dire as the government is locked in a battle with al Qaeda.
UPDATE:
Video is streaming showing fighting on the streets in Damascus despite propaganda video shown by Assad's media outlets attempting to show calm:
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Concerns Mounting Over Possible Balkanization of Syria
Syria remains in the throes of a civil war, and there are reports indicating that Assad may be trying to carve out an Alawite sector of the country, essentially engaging in ethnic cleansing so that the Alawite minority can retain control over some geographical portion of Syria. They point to an increasing trend of sectarian attacks.
I don't think Assad's thinking about retaining just part of Syria. He's looking to crush the rebellion and retain control of all Syrian territory.
A far more worrisome possibility, particularly for Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and Iraq is that Assad falls and the power vacuum results in a jihadi safe haven from which attacks could be launched at all of Syria's neighbors.
Israeli officials believe it's just a matter of time before Assad falls, but they're concerned about the possibility of a failed state on its border and the potential influx of Iranian and Hizbullah influence:
Assad's fight is increasingly hitting closer and closer to home. The fighting isn't confined to the provinces of Hama or Homs; they're in his backyard. The fighting is now in Damascus suburbs.
I don't think Assad's thinking about retaining just part of Syria. He's looking to crush the rebellion and retain control of all Syrian territory.
A far more worrisome possibility, particularly for Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and Iraq is that Assad falls and the power vacuum results in a jihadi safe haven from which attacks could be launched at all of Syria's neighbors.
Israeli officials believe it's just a matter of time before Assad falls, but they're concerned about the possibility of a failed state on its border and the potential influx of Iranian and Hizbullah influence:
The regime of Bashar Assad in Syria will not overcome the uprising against it, although it might survive for anywhere between another two months and a little more than two years, Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday.I've repeatedly noted that Assad has no problem engaging in war crimes, and Israeli officials note that is precisely what Assad is engaging in with indiscriminate shelling of civilians. Assad and his loyalists are engaged in a fight for their survival, and it means eliminating their enemies in the process.
Kochavi said that the Golan Heights region could turn into a theater of anti-Israel operations, similar to the Sinai Peninsula region, due the growing presence of global Jihadists in Syria.
Kochavi showed the committee satellite photographs of Syrian artillery batteries firing indiscriminately into urban populated areas. Kochavi said that the Syrian military is acting in a "brutal" manner, indicating the Syrian military's despair over the fact that it can't find an effective way to suppress the riots.
Kochavi said that the clashes in Syria are worsening on a daily basis, with 500 to 700 people being killed every week, and that the country is experiencing an accelerated process of Iraqization.
The chances of a war between Israel and Syria are low, even as a last resort for Assad, Kochavi said. Assad has moved many of his forces from the Golan region to Damascus because he is not concerned about a conflict with Israel.
Kochavi said that Iran and Hezbollah are preparing for the day after Assad's fall from power.
Assad's fight is increasingly hitting closer and closer to home. The fighting isn't confined to the provinces of Hama or Homs; they're in his backyard. The fighting is now in Damascus suburbs.
Violence is continuing to spread across Syria and in the capital Damascus as rebels - now better-equipped and more organised - confront the army and government-backed militia.There have also been video showing roads being blocked in and around Damascus as well as firebombing of vehicles ostensibly occupied by regime loyalists. The increased disruptions of life in Damascus is starting to take a toll there, but that only adds to the overall uptick in number of refugees flowing into neighboring Turkey and the numbers are increasing.
The rebel Free Syrian Army said it had launched Operation Damascus Volcano, and has called for an escalation of attacks on regime targets and the blocking of main roads all around the country.
One of the biggest and most organised opposition groups, the Muslim Brotherhood, has called on all Syrians to join what it called a decisive battle.
Witnesses say the government's military deployment in Damascus is the biggest since protests against President Bashar al-Assad's rule began in March last year.
Monday, July 16, 2012
Syrian Civil War Bloodletting Continues
It's been apparent that Syria has been waging a civil war for nearly a year now, but a growing number of diplomats and International Red Cross are being forced to realize that the situation isn't a mere insurrection or rebels or terrorists fighting against Bashar al-Assad's regime as Assad would have the world believe.
Rebel groups have been taking and holding territory around the country, but not without a great cost to the Syrians. Assad's taken a no-holds-barred policy, and artillery assaults and massacres are being utilized on an increasingly regular basis. It's Assad's updated Hama rules. There can be no opposition if you utterly crush it.
Despite Assad's claims that he's willing to talk transition and increased power to opposition groups, Assad's actions show he has no intention to share power or ever willingly step down. Instead, he's about decimating the opposition by and through his military forces and loyalist militias.
While fighting has been ongoing around the country, and particularly in rebel strongholds such as Hama and Homs, there's renewed fighting on the capital's doorstep. Fighting has resumed in Damascus suburbs, and as has been typical with Assad, his media outlets report this as the regime going after terror groups:
All the while, other countries are growing tired of Assad's actions, as Morocco has tossed out Assad's diplomats.
Rebel groups have been taking and holding territory around the country, but not without a great cost to the Syrians. Assad's taken a no-holds-barred policy, and artillery assaults and massacres are being utilized on an increasingly regular basis. It's Assad's updated Hama rules. There can be no opposition if you utterly crush it.
Despite Assad's claims that he's willing to talk transition and increased power to opposition groups, Assad's actions show he has no intention to share power or ever willingly step down. Instead, he's about decimating the opposition by and through his military forces and loyalist militias.
While fighting has been ongoing around the country, and particularly in rebel strongholds such as Hama and Homs, there's renewed fighting on the capital's doorstep. Fighting has resumed in Damascus suburbs, and as has been typical with Assad, his media outlets report this as the regime going after terror groups:
The official Syrian news service reported Monday that authorities were in pursuit of an "armed terrorist group" that had fled from the capital's Tadamon district. Heavy fighting was reported Sunday in that neighborhood.The diplomats seem to be as clueless as they've always been when dealing with the situation - and no amount of paper produced at the Arab League or United Nations will force Assad aside, not when Russia continues to backstop the Assad regime. Russia has yet to understand the consequences of that action, even as they're claiming that the West is blackmailing them into action and the US isn't willing to undertake another NATO mission in Syria when presidential elections are awaiting in November. The status quo will continue into 2013, so that leaves both Assad and the rebels, including the Syrian National Council to figure out how to survive past then. That means the civil war will continue grinding out a butchers' bill that grows by the day.
Fighting was ongoing Monday in the Abu Habil and al-Zahira areas of the capital, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group based in Britain.
Other opposition activists reported clashes in the south Damascus area of Kafr Souseh. A video purportedly filmed in that district in the dawn hours included the sounds of heavy shooting.
Later, an activist reached by telephone said battles were raging in the Midan district, an opposition hotbed. The activist, who requested anonymity because of safety concerns, said Sunday's clashes in southern Damascus occurred in the Kfar Souseh area as well as Tadamon.
The Local Coordination Committees, a network of opposition groups, said government troops had blocked the road leading to the Midan on Monday. Amateur video footage purportedly filmed in Midan and shared on Facebook showed thick clouds of black smoke rising to the sky. In another clip, the sound of heavy gunfire could be heard.
All the while, other countries are growing tired of Assad's actions, as Morocco has tossed out Assad's diplomats.
Monday, July 02, 2012
Diplomacy Falls Apart As Syrian Civil War Continues
Hundreds of people have been killed in the past week as the Syrian military loyal to Bashar al-Assad continues its assault against rebel strongholds across the country, which brings the overall tally to more than 16,500. Nearly 70% of the total are civilians. There's even video showing a funeral procession coming under attack, though no one knows who was behind a deadly bombing in Damascus. Victims were buried in a mass grave.
That follows a series of brazen attacks against the government's facilities in and around Damascus that showed just how vulnerable the regime's power has become.
Today, there are reports that Assad's resorted to using helicopters to bombard rebel strongholds. It was those helicopter raids, particularly close to the border with Turkey that sent the Turkish air force to scramble fighter jets towards the border on three separate occasions in the past 24 hours.
Syria continues mucking around along its border with Lebanon as well. The Chinese, via the United Nations, are calling on Syria to stop messing around with the border with Lebanon following a series of incursions by the Syrian military to go after the rebel forces in the border region.
Russia has once again sided with Assad to thwart any kind of diplomatic solution, though rebel groups are opposed to allowing Assad to participate in any kind of transitional government since that would likely mean that Assad would be able to game the system to his favor and remain in power.
That follows a series of brazen attacks against the government's facilities in and around Damascus that showed just how vulnerable the regime's power has become.
Today, there are reports that Assad's resorted to using helicopters to bombard rebel strongholds. It was those helicopter raids, particularly close to the border with Turkey that sent the Turkish air force to scramble fighter jets towards the border on three separate occasions in the past 24 hours.
Turkey scrambled six F-16 fighter jets in three separate incidents responding to Syrian military helicopters approaching the border on Sunday, its armed forces command said on Monday.Turkey has repeatedly warned Syria that force will be met with force if Syria sends troops or aircraft towards the border following Syria shooting down a Turkey F-4 jet over the Mediterranean Sea.
It was the second time in as many days Turkish jets were launched in response to Syrian helicopters flying near the border and comes after a Turkish reconnaissance plane was shot down by Syria late last month.
The jets took off from Incirlik air base in southern Turkey after Syrian helicopters were spotted flying south of the Turkish province of Hatay, the chief of general staff said on the military's website.
Two helicopters had come within 2.5 miles and one had come within 2 miles of the border, it said. Two of the helicopters were MI-8 type aircraft and one was an MI-17, all Russian-built transport helicopters.
On Sunday, Turkey said it had scrambled six F-16s near its border with Syria after similar transport helicopters were spotted flying either within 4 miles of the border or "close" to the border.
Syria continues mucking around along its border with Lebanon as well. The Chinese, via the United Nations, are calling on Syria to stop messing around with the border with Lebanon following a series of incursions by the Syrian military to go after the rebel forces in the border region.
Russia has once again sided with Assad to thwart any kind of diplomatic solution, though rebel groups are opposed to allowing Assad to participate in any kind of transitional government since that would likely mean that Assad would be able to game the system to his favor and remain in power.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Syria Shoots Down Turkish Fighter Jet Over Syrian Waters
Syria apparently shot down a Turkish F-4 fighter jet over the Mediterranean Sea earlier today.
I fully expect Syria to claim that this was an accident/misunderstanding/failure to communicate, etc., while Turkey might try to minimize the severity of the incident as well, since they're generally on talking terms with Assad.
However, there have been several incidents since the uprising began that saw Syrian forces fire on or into Turkey and the Turkish government has increasingly grown tired of the violence in Syria and the strain on humanitarian resources near the border with Syria from the flow of refugees.
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan told reporters at a news conference covered by NBC News he could not say whether the plane had crashed or been shot down.This has the potential for being the rationale for getting NATO involved in the Syrian civil war.
He said he had no word on the fate of the plane's two airmen.
"The chief of general staff has made the necessary statement about the missing plane. I am not saying it was brought down at the point it fell. It is not possible to say this without knowing the exact facts," Erdogan told a news conference.
Turkish ships and helicopters were searching for the airmen in cooperation with Syrian vessels, Erdogan said.
He said he wasn't aware of any Syrian claims of responsibility for bringing down the plane or of earlier reports that Syrian authorities had apologized.
Earlier, Lebanon's Hezbollah-owned Al-Manar television station said that Syrian air defenses shot down a Turkish military aircraft, quoting Syrian security sources.
I fully expect Syria to claim that this was an accident/misunderstanding/failure to communicate, etc., while Turkey might try to minimize the severity of the incident as well, since they're generally on talking terms with Assad.
However, there have been several incidents since the uprising began that saw Syrian forces fire on or into Turkey and the Turkish government has increasingly grown tired of the violence in Syria and the strain on humanitarian resources near the border with Syria from the flow of refugees.
Thursday, June 14, 2012
Assad Continues Crackdown While World Watches
Bashar al Assad continues to put his own spin on his father's Hama rules guide to dealing with insurrection. Assad continues murdering those opposed to his regime at a frightening pace, but it's a slow bleed. A dozen here, a dozen there every few days, with larger massacres interspersed. That compares with his father, who killed tens of thousands in a brutal burst when eliminating the Muslim Brotherhood's presence in the city of Hama.
Hama, both the city and province, continue to be a thorn in Assad the younger's side, as it remains a center of opposition to Assad's regime.
While the world can do little but issue sternly worded letters and UN observers can't intercede and their own safety is put at risk by both sides to the conflict, the US has started to increase its rhetoric against Assad's patron in Russia. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that Syria was receiving helicopters from Russia, but what wasn't stated is that those helicopters were getting maintenance and refurbishment - they weren't exactly new to Syria's fleet.
Lavrov's criticism is accurate; the US has provided weapons to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and Egypt over the years and they were utilized in the crackdowns and suppression of dissent during the course of the Arab Spring.
Yet, the level of violence perpetrated by Assad is on a different scale, and the US wasn't providing those weapons shipments in the middle of what even the UN concedes is a civil war. Amnesty International has reported once again that Assad's forces are committing war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The diplomatic situation is further complicated by the fact that China is also thwarting actions at the UN alongside Russia.
It's a disturbing pattern of behavior by Assad's backers/patrons, all while the Syrians continue to suffer at the hands of his regime.
Hama, both the city and province, continue to be a thorn in Assad the younger's side, as it remains a center of opposition to Assad's regime.
While the world can do little but issue sternly worded letters and UN observers can't intercede and their own safety is put at risk by both sides to the conflict, the US has started to increase its rhetoric against Assad's patron in Russia. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that Syria was receiving helicopters from Russia, but what wasn't stated is that those helicopters were getting maintenance and refurbishment - they weren't exactly new to Syria's fleet.
What Mrs. Clinton did not say, however, was whether the aircraft were new shipments or, as administration officials say is more likely, helicopters that Syria had sent to Russia a few months ago for routine repairs and refurbishing, and which were now about to be returned.It's still a bad situation and the optics don't look good for Russia considering that Assad has been using those helicopters in going after the rebel forces.
“She put a little spin on it to put the Russians in a difficult position,” said one senior Defense Department official.
Mrs. Clinton’s claim about the helicopters, administration officials said, is part of a calculated effort to raise the pressure on Russia to abandon President Bashar al-Assad, its main ally in the Middle East. Russia has so far stuck by Mr. Assad’s government, worried that if he were ousted, Moscow would lose its influence in the region.
In response to Mrs. Clinton’s allegations, the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, accused the United States of hypocrisy on Wednesday, saying it had supplied weapons that could be used against demonstrators in other countries in the region. Mr. Lavrov, during a visit to Iran, repeated Russia’s claim that it is not supplying Damascus with any weapons that could be used in a civil war.
Lavrov's criticism is accurate; the US has provided weapons to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and Egypt over the years and they were utilized in the crackdowns and suppression of dissent during the course of the Arab Spring.
Yet, the level of violence perpetrated by Assad is on a different scale, and the US wasn't providing those weapons shipments in the middle of what even the UN concedes is a civil war. Amnesty International has reported once again that Assad's forces are committing war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The London-based rights group called for an international response after claiming it had fresh evidence that victims, including children, had been dragged from their homes and shot dead by soldiers, who in some cases then set the remains on fire.UN observers finally reached one of the towns under fire, Haffeh, only to find it battered and deserted.
“This disturbing new evidence of an organised pattern of grave abuses highlights the pressing need for decisive international action,” said Amnesty’s Donatella Rovera on the release of the 70-page report entitled Deadly Reprisals.
The advocacy group interviewed people in 23 towns and villages across Syria and concluded that government forces and militias were guilty of “grave human rights violations and serious violations of international humanitarian law amounting to crimes against humanity and war crimes.”
The diplomatic situation is further complicated by the fact that China is also thwarting actions at the UN alongside Russia.
It's a disturbing pattern of behavior by Assad's backers/patrons, all while the Syrians continue to suffer at the hands of his regime.
Thursday, June 07, 2012
New Massacre Reported In Syria; Assad's Goons Thwarting UN Observers; UPDATE: Observers Take Fire
Multiple reports are coming in from Syria that Bashar al Assad's goons have committed yet another massacre near the city of Hama. More than 70 were killed, with at least half that number being women and children. Despite the presence of UN observers in the country, the bloodletting continues and Assad's forces are blocking the observers from seeing the scene of the war crimes for themselves.
As with the Houla massacre, it appears that the Hama massacre involved multiple executions with knives and close weapons. Many of those killed appeared to be from a single extended family.
Assad continues playing by the Hama rules - conducting massacres and brutal crackdowns in drips and drabs rather than one fell swoop. In the process, he doesn't completely piss off his patrons in China, Russia and Iran who continue backing his regime and thwarting more serious action at the United Nations. However, the body count is piling up and it is an inescapable conclusion that Assad must go - and the rebel forces will need more than just talk to make that happen.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has called on Assad to go, but unless the US backs those words with military power and/or assistance to the rebel groups, that's all it will be - talk.
UPDATE:
UN observers were shot at while trying to reach the scene of the latest massacre in the Hama province. They don't have the authority or ability to fight (let alone defend themselves) and aren't peacekeepers, so they're in the worst kind of position imaginable. They can only bear witness to the atrocities committed by Assad and his goons, as well as those carried out by the rebel forces.
There's no way to know who fired on the observers, but expect Assad to blame the rebels for this attack, even though the rebels have every reason to want the UN to see this if Assad's forces were behind the massacre. But then, Assad blames all the casualties on the rebel forces, even though there's little evidence that the rebels have the kinds of artillery needed to open fire at a distance (as reported in each of these massacres), when militias then finish the task with execution style murders.
The commander of United Nations monitors seeking to gain access to the site of a reported mass killing in central Syria said on Thursday that his forces were being blocked by army checkpoints and civilians in a standoff that seemed to mirror a looming diplomatic stalemate over the crisis.Assad continues to claim that the reports are baseless all while blaming this and other mass casualty incidents on the rebel groups.
If verified, the massacre, reported on Wednesday, would be the fourth in less than two weeks, threatening to inject a new surge of angry momentum into the growing international effort to isolate President Bashar al-Assad and remove him from power.
But efforts to establish what happened in the village of Qubeir, the site of the reported mass killing, suffered a severe setback on Thursday as United Nations monitors were “being stopped at Syrian army checkpoints and in some cases turned back,” according to Gen. Robert Mood, the head of the observer team, in a statement issued by the United Nations office in Geneva.
“Some of our patrols are being stopped by civilians in the area,” the statement said, an apparent reference to armed militiamen controlled by the government and known as shabiha.
General Mood also said that, while United Nations observers were still trying to gain access, “we are receiving information from residents of the area that the safety of our observers is at risk” if they seek to enter the village.
The developments on the ground echoed a deepening standoff in international diplomacy, suggesting that hitherto intractable differences over the crisis were likely to endure or worsen.
As with the Houla massacre, it appears that the Hama massacre involved multiple executions with knives and close weapons. Many of those killed appeared to be from a single extended family.
Assad continues playing by the Hama rules - conducting massacres and brutal crackdowns in drips and drabs rather than one fell swoop. In the process, he doesn't completely piss off his patrons in China, Russia and Iran who continue backing his regime and thwarting more serious action at the United Nations. However, the body count is piling up and it is an inescapable conclusion that Assad must go - and the rebel forces will need more than just talk to make that happen.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has called on Assad to go, but unless the US backs those words with military power and/or assistance to the rebel groups, that's all it will be - talk.
UPDATE:
UN observers were shot at while trying to reach the scene of the latest massacre in the Hama province. They don't have the authority or ability to fight (let alone defend themselves) and aren't peacekeepers, so they're in the worst kind of position imaginable. They can only bear witness to the atrocities committed by Assad and his goons, as well as those carried out by the rebel forces.
There's no way to know who fired on the observers, but expect Assad to blame the rebels for this attack, even though the rebels have every reason to want the UN to see this if Assad's forces were behind the massacre. But then, Assad blames all the casualties on the rebel forces, even though there's little evidence that the rebels have the kinds of artillery needed to open fire at a distance (as reported in each of these massacres), when militias then finish the task with execution style murders.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Assad's Loyalists Blame Houla Massacre On Rebels
Last week, more than 100 people were murdered in Houla. It's been reported that artillery was fired and subsequently roving militias came through to finish the job - executing dozens at close range with knives and small arms fire.
Is it any surprise that Bashar al-Assad's loyalists are claiming that the massacre was the result of rebel forces - not the government. The Assad-backed "investigation" claims that those killed were Assad loyalists and were unwilling to cooperate with the rebels, which is why they were targeted.
Meanwhile, China wants to give the failed Annan plan more time to work, even though the plan has been a miserable failure from the outset. It hasn't stopped the violence, and massacres continue. Human rights violations abound, and there's nothing that the UN observers can do to thwart war crimes or human rights violations because countries - like China and Russia are preventing anything more harsh than a strongly worded letter from being adopted by the Security Council.
That's even as the UN Secretary General concedes that war crimes and civil war are likely if both sides refuse to abide by the Annan plan. The fact is that UN observers aren't there to do anything more than observe. They can't force anyone to lower their weapons; they too have been targeted by both sides. The UN is in a no-win situation because Russia and China refuse to take stronger action against their client Assad.
I'd say that Syria is already seeing a civil war, and that war crimes and crimes against humanity are ongoing. Assad is doing everything within his power to stay in power - and that includes murdering those opposed to his regime.
Is it any surprise that Bashar al-Assad's loyalists are claiming that the massacre was the result of rebel forces - not the government. The Assad-backed "investigation" claims that those killed were Assad loyalists and were unwilling to cooperate with the rebels, which is why they were targeted.
Meanwhile, China wants to give the failed Annan plan more time to work, even though the plan has been a miserable failure from the outset. It hasn't stopped the violence, and massacres continue. Human rights violations abound, and there's nothing that the UN observers can do to thwart war crimes or human rights violations because countries - like China and Russia are preventing anything more harsh than a strongly worded letter from being adopted by the Security Council.
That's even as the UN Secretary General concedes that war crimes and civil war are likely if both sides refuse to abide by the Annan plan. The fact is that UN observers aren't there to do anything more than observe. They can't force anyone to lower their weapons; they too have been targeted by both sides. The UN is in a no-win situation because Russia and China refuse to take stronger action against their client Assad.
I'd say that Syria is already seeing a civil war, and that war crimes and crimes against humanity are ongoing. Assad is doing everything within his power to stay in power - and that includes murdering those opposed to his regime.
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