Carnage Continues Across Syria

Amnesty International has released satellite imagery showing artillery impact craters for Aleppo and its surrounding towns. It shows hundreds of craters and just how intense the fighting has been.

The international human rights group said both sides fighting in Aleppo, the country's largest city, might be held criminally accountable for their failure to protect civilians.

It said the images, obtained from commercial satellites over the July 23 - Aug. 1 period, showed more than 600 craters, probably from artillery shelling, dotting Aleppo's surrounding areas. The craters were represented with yellow dots in the images.

One photo, from July 31, showed craters next to what looked like a residential housing complex in the nearby town of Anadan, Amnesty said.

'Atrocities'
The organization expressed concern about the deployment of heavy weaponry in residential parts of Aleppo.

This is Bashar al-Assad's take on the Hama rules initiated by his father. The New York Times has reported that rebel forces have withdrawn from parts of Aleppo as Assad's forces have begun a ground action. However, rebel forces have indicated that they have not withdrawn. Fighting has been most intense in the area of Salaheddiin.

Meanwhile, Iran admits that some retired members of its Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) were among the 48 people the rebels have captured/kidnapped though Iran claims that the group was simply a bunch of pilgrims to a religious shrine. The US State Department has no reason to doubt the rebel statements about the 48.

On Wednesday, however, Iran's foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted by the Islamic Republic's government-controlled media as saying, "some retired individuals from the Guards and army" were among those being held.

"After some time in which pilgrims from Iran were not being dispatched to Syria... we took steps to send retired forces from various organizations," he was quoted as saying by Iran's state news agency and other state-run media. "Some retired individuals from the Guards and army were dispatched to Syria to make a pilgrimage."

Salehi continued to reject claims that the hostages were playing an active military role.

A day before admitting the hostages' links to the elite Iranian military unit, Salehi sent a formal letter to United Nations Secretary-General, to "seek the cooperation and the good offices of Your Excellency for securing the release of these hostages."

Rebels took the Iranians hostage recently, claiming they are members of the IRGC. In a video published on Sunday, Capt. Abdul Nasser Shumayr of the Free Syrian Army's al-Bara Brigade said three of the captives had been killed in "fierce shelling" by security forces, and he threatened to execute the rest if the bombardment continued.

Assad Preparing For Aleppo Assault as Civil War Rages On

Reports indicate that Bashar al-Assad's forces are preparing for a ground offensive against rebel-held areas of Aleppo. That will most certainly increase the casualties significantly over the already high tallies seen across the country in recent weeks.

Syria on Friday amassed troops in the northern city of Aleppo in preparation for an onslaught on rebel-held areas and the opposition reported a massacre in the central city of Hama.

Opposition activists said more than 62 people, including women and children, were killed in a massacre committed by forces loyal to President Bashar Assad in Hama. The claim by the Local Coordination Committees could not be independently verified.

In Aleppo, Syria's main commercial center, the Syrian army sent more troops and tanks to break a stalemate in fighting with rebels holding out for six days in opposition areas mainly in the east and southwest of the city near the border with Turkey.

"Dozens of trucks loaded with troops and backed by more than 100 tanks are being positioned around Aleppo," Abu Omar al-Halabi, a commander in the rebel Free Syrian Army, told dpa by phone.

The UN is hobbled by a split Security Council - the Russians and Chinese are blocking everything related to Syria, up to and including even weak-worded condemnation of the violence. Kofi Annan admitted as much when he declared his mission to implement a peace deal was a failure and that he was stepping down as envoy to Syria effective at the end of the month.

Assad's looking out for one thing - to remain in power at all costs. That means paying lip service to the diplomats all while crushing those opposed to him. The burden falls on Syrians who can't get out of the way of the violence, or who have declared allegiance to one side or the other.

Meanwhile, the NY Times reports Assad's forces are bedeviled by the fact that they're not prepared to deal with an insurrection where rebel forces (the Free Syrian Army and other unaffiliated groups) are able to mount coordinated attacks and capture some of the same weapons for use against the Syrian army. It's a situation that the Libyan military faced when Mumar Khadafi sought to crush the rebellion-turned-civil war and that the Egyptian military faced when Hosni Mubarak sought to stop the protests against his regime.

However, one shouldn't feel sorry for Assad because his military is having a tough time dealing with the rebel forces. It appears that even with a tactical advantage in the air (from helicopters and jets), it's just enough for Assad's forces to maintain the status quo. The Syrian military wasn't known for having a high state of preparedness to begin with, so equipment that was unreliable to start has only become more so. That's one of the reasons those helicopters that the Russians were refurbishing was so valued by the regime. They needed them to fill in for those that were already flying missions to support Assad's loyalists on the ground.

If he can't resupply and rearm, then the rebels will gain the upper hand and leave Assad with fewer and fewer options for how to retain power. It potentially opens the door for Assad to use chemical or biological weapons as a last ditch effort to crush the opposition though he claims that he wouldn't use it against the Syrian people (even as he calls the fighters arrayed against him foreign terror groups and proxies of the US and/or Israel, Syria, Qatar or others).

Meanwhile, Russia has dispatched more ships and ground forces to their port in Tartus; they are claiming that they are there to protect Russia's personnel and infrastructure at the port.

Rebel forces have again claimed that the regime carried out massacres in Hama, while both sides are blaming the other for a mortar attack against a Palestinian refugee camp that killed nearly 2 dozen civilians.

Kofi Annan Resigns As Envoy as Syrian Civil War Intensifies

The outcome was all but assured. Bashar al-Assad paid lip service to United Nations Envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, and his plan to end the ongoing violence wracking Syria for more than a year and a half. So Kofi has quit as envoy.

Assad continues to claim that foreign entities and terrorists are to blame for the violence, but it's Annan's security forces and loyalist goon squads who have introduced the violence and then intensified it as opposition groups moved to defend themselves.

The situation has been a civil war for some time now, as rebel forces have gained and held territory, including parts of Syria's two big cities - Aleppo and Damascus.

Annan's plan has been an abysmal failure though it wasn't exactly his fault. UN monitors could only look on as the violence raged around them; they were themselves targeted on more than one occasion. That ultimately led to their withdrawal. Assad never had any intention of stopping the brutal crackdown since he had no intention of ever stepping down or relinquishing power under any circumstances.

Aleppo is an urban battleground, with Assad's loyalists firing heavy weapons into the city and rebel-held strongholds, while the rebel forces have overrun some of Assad's positions and obtained heavy weapons of their own to return fire. Civilians remain caught in the crossfire.

Video footage seen by the Monitor shortly after the showdown bolstered rebel claims: It showed a Syrian armored vehicle with an RPG hole in its side still smoldering, and a number of Syrian soldiers lying dead at their positions on a wide avenue. Later footage showed burnt tanks.

The assault had been stopped, at least on the ground.

But shortly after came the roar of artillery barrages. Mortars, rockets, and tank shells were unleashed on the rebel enclave and did not end, nor even ease up, until well into the night.

Casualties began to pour in to the makeshift field hospital. Civilians said the intense shelling felt like regime revenge for the earlier military setbacks.

Few Syrians here forget the example of the rebel stronghold of Bab al-Amr in Homs – which was destroyed by weeks of artillery bombardment earlier this year, then declared "free" – or the more recent brutal "cleansing" of rebel turf in Damascus.

The bombardment was so intense that the United Nations estimates that in the last two days alone, 200,000 of the city’s 2 million residents have fled.

Artillery shells and rockets fell every few minutes in Salaheddin, sometimes as often as one a minute and sometimes in groups of five, coming in rapid succession. Some landed so close to the field hospital that shrapnel and debris hit the roof or walls.

Meanwhile, President Obama issued a secret finding authorizing covert aid to the Syrian rebels. He's also arranged for more humanitarian aid to those displaced by the Syrian civil war.

Aleppo Besieged As Assad and Rebels Claim Victories

The fighting in and around Aleppo, Syria's commercial hub, continues and the number of refugees is soaring. 200,000 have fled the city as a result of the brutal fighting on the streets and in the buildings of multiple neighborhoods around the city.

Both Assad and rebel forces have claimed victories. Assad's forces have claimed that they've overrun rebel held areas and retaken the city after more than a week's worth of artillery assaults and airstrikes.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group, reported heavy shelling in Salaheddine today, suggesting the district or parts of it are still under rebel control. An officer interviewed by the state-run TV channel said “mercenaries” from other countries, including Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, were helping the rebels in Aleppo.

Troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have been battling rebels who seized several neighborhoods in Aleppo, Syria’s most populous city and its commercial hub, since last week. The army pounded the city with heavy artillery and helicopter gunships, opposition groups say.

Motee al-Bateen, a member of the executive committee of the Syrian National Council, the main opposition group, said he couldn’t confirm that Salaheddine has fallen into army hands.

“How much territory the opposition holds is not important,” he said by telephone from Istanbul today. “What’s important is to engage the troops in cycles of attack-and- retreat to exhaust them.”

Al-Bateen said the army was using mortars, rocket launchers and tanks to shell areas from a distance and avoid engaging rebels in close combat.

Rebels note that despite the artillery and airstrikes, they've continued to hold on to Aleppo. Moreover, they've noted that Assad's forces haven't invaded the city en masse, precisely because they'd be facing an uphill battle in a brutal urban setting.

Rebel forces also announced that they captured a significant military base near Aleppo. They managed to capture the position after heavy fighting, and gained heavy weapons to supplement their own weapons.

Pro-Assad groups have claimed that Assad's forces have assassinated a Saudi official, Bandar bin Sultan, who they claim involved in plotting to eliminate key members of the Syrian defense and intel establishment earlier this month. However, there's no evidence to substantiate those claims, but it does show the animosity between Syria and Saudi Arabia is growing. The Saudis have been working to bring Assad's regime to an end, both by diplomacy and by covert means.

Meanwhile, another Syrian official has defected. At the same time, a Chinese news outlet is reporting that Assad's continuing to claim that he seeks to carry out the terms of the Arab League/Kofi Annan plan to end the violence. It's just so much talk since Assad could have simply brought the violence to an end by reining in his brutal crackdown. He has no intention of giving up power peacefully, and is seeking retribution against those that questioned his regime.

At the same time, concerns are mounting that al Qaeda and other Islamists are taking advantage of the chaos to gain a foothold in Syria.

Aleppo Bracing For Assad's Forces

Syria is in a state of civil war and has been for some time. Rebel forces have captured territories outside of the major cities and provinces of Hama and Homs as Assad's gaze has focused on retaking those areas. It's left outlying provinces to their own devices. They're running things without Assad's government goons in sight:

As the Syrian state recedes, the people in this village and villages around it are filling in the blanks with their own institutions and, for better or for worse, their own ideas about how a country should be run.

The rebels started taking control of these villages and towns a few months back, as the Syrian army focused on holding major cities.

The first thing the rebels do is take over the post office or the police station and set up shop as the local authority.

Each village or town has something different to offer the rebels. In Qurqanya, it's a school that during the summer break can be used as a kind of media center, with a few laptops and an Internet connection.

In the next town over, it's a hospital.

The head doctor says he might treat dozens of injured rebel fighters from all around this region in a single day. Places that treat rebels used to be totally underground — makeshift MASH units set up in people's houses.

In many parts of Syria, it's still like this. But more and more the rebels are coming out into the open and asserting their control.

While the fighting has receded from those areas, it's intensifying in and around Aleppo as Bashar al Assad's forces prepare to overwhelm the rebel forces in the sprawling city with artillery, airstrikes, and an armored assaults.

Civilians caught in the crossfire are attempting to get out of the way, but face hazards at every step of the way with gunfire erupting at every turn.

“We fear the government’s retaliation — may God help us,” said Ahmad, a resident of the southeastern Salaheddiin neighborhood, one of the first areas overrun with insurgents over the weekend. So many poured in from the countryside that they sometimes ended up fighting each other for control of individual streets, residents said.

People streamed out of the neighborhoods where the rebel soldiers claimed control, figuring they would be pounded by government forces, following the same pattern in one Syrian city after another during the course of the 17-month-old uprising. But some men stayed behind to protect their property from looters.

Tanks and troops normally deployed in nearby Idlib province began to lumber eastward toward Aleppo after suhur, the morning meal that comes before sunrise during the monthlong Ramadan holiday, fighters and activists said.

One column of an estimated 23 armored vehicles carrying soldiers and ammunition out of Jebel az-Zawiya, a rebel stronghold in southern Idlib, was attacked by local fighters, according to a local activist in Turkey who said he was in touch with the insurgents. Roughly a third of the vehicles were destroyed but the rest moved on toward Aleppo, he said.

Assad's prospects may be slightly improved on the battlefield, but his diplomatic contacts are getting hammered hard.

Turkey has cut trade ties with Syria in closing its border. At the same time, two more Syrian diplomats have defected:

Turkey sealed its border with Syria to trucks on Wednesday, effectively cutting off a trade relationship once worth almost $3 billion with the embattled nation, as regime forces fought to evict rebels from the country's largest city.

Two more Syrian diplomats, the envoy to Cyprus and her husband, the former ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, have also defected, according to the opposition Syrian National Council, in the latest sign of fraying support for the regime among its own elites. The announcement follows the televised appearance Tuesday night of a defected regime general calling for a new Syria.

Turkish Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan said deteriorating security was behind the closure of a border through which Turkey once exported food and construction materials to the entire Middle East, though the volume of traffic had dropped 87 percent since the Syrian conflict began in March 2011.

Aleppo Under Siege As Assad's Forces Attack From Air and Golan Heights DMZ

Israel is contacting the United Nations over an incursion by more than 500 Syrian soldiers into the DMZ between Israel and Syria in the process of attacking rebel targets near the demarcation line.

Following the incident, in which 500 soldiers and 50 vehicles crossed into the demilitarized zone, Israel filed a formal complaint to the UN secretary general and to the president of the UN's Security Council, warning that the event may have serious ramifications.

Concern in Israel, in light of the situation in Syria, especially over Assad's chemical weapons stockpile and land-to-land missiles, is growing every day. In a meeting on Sunday afternoon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consulted the heads of Israel's security establishment, including Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and other senior cabinet members.

"We are monitoring the events in Syria closely and are prepared for any development to come," Netanyahu said in his opening statement.

At the same time, rebel forces are claiming that Bashar al-Assad's forces have dispersed chemical weapons to airports along Syria's borders as a threat against foreign countries from interfering in the brutal crackdown against the rebels. However, we need to keep in mind distances we're talking about here. The threat is that he's going to disperse and deploy them against foreign targets.

Damascus is 45 miles from the Golan Heights DMZ.

Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are only around 120 miles beyond that.

The distances are so small that the threat is the same regardless of where Assad is putting those weapons if he's going to use them against Israel via aircraft or long range missiles. Artillery delivering such weapons would have a shorter range, but that's something that the Israelis would see via their listening posts on Mt. Hermon. Israel would see something was afoot, though the reaction time would be less the closer to the border.

Dispersing the weapons means that the chances that they could fall into the wrong hands increases (terrorists or those who may have no idea what they're doing) increases. But since Assad is expanding its air campaign against the rebels, it's not beyond the possibility that despite his claims to the contrary, he could be preparing to use them against the rebel forces.

If Assad thought that trying to provoke Israel into engaging in a firefight would help his cause, he's seriously misguided since Syrians would see and respond that he's trying to bluff his way out of his predicament by blaming Israel (something he's done for far too long). And the last thing he wants to do is split his forces between going after the rebel forces and any kind of conflict with Israel and its technological superiority. He would unwittingly be playing right into the hands of rebel forces who lack the capability to neutralize the Syrian air force. If Assad brings Israel into the conflict, it would neutralize his air force, which is one of the few things holding the rebel forces at bay.

Recent reports indicate that Assad's now using fighter jets in addition to helicopter gunships. Until now, Assad's forces have used helicopters and artillery for long range attacks against the rebel forces.

Assad's forces have increasingly relied upon their air force to attack rebel forces, which is also about the only way Assad's loyalists can stay ahead of the rebels, who have managed to carry off spectacular advances in holding territory as well as attacks killing the highest echelon of Assad's security establishment.

Government helicopter gunships attacked Aleppo, the Local Coordination Committees, a network of on-the-ground activists, told NBC News. The Associated Press reported that warplanes circled in the air around the city, while the British Broadcasting Corp., citing one of its reporters near the area, said that fighter jets had bombed eastern parts of Aleppo.
With sequential rebel attacks on the country's two largest cities and a bombing that wiped out some of his top security advisors, President Bashar Assad reshuffled his top security posts, dismissing one general and appointing a national security council chief to replace the one killed in the recent attack.

Syria's rebels, outmanned and outgunned by the regime's professional army, have mounted a surprising pair of offensives over the last 10 days against the country's two major cities — Damascus and Aleppo. Even as the government appears to have snuffed out most of the rebel pockets in the capital, the rebels appear to be fight fiercely in the commercial hub of Aleppo in the north.

The government has instituted tight restrictions on outside news outlets working in Syria, making it difficult to verify many reports from inside the country.

Fighting spreads in Aleppo
The battle in Aleppo has spread from neighborhoods in the northeast and southwest of the city to previously untouched areas like Firdous in the south and Arkoub closer to the center, local activists and the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

This is the fourth day of heavy fighting in Aleppo, which also includes a prison uprising that was brutally put down. There's also evidence that Assad's forces are using Iranian-made UAVs in spotting targets.

Rumors Rampant That Assad's On The Run

Everything is on rumor at the moment. No one seems to have seen Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad in the past few days, particularly since the attacks began in Damascus proper and especially after the bombing that took out his defense ministers yesterday.

The silence is fueling rumors of his whereabouts and whether he's still in control of the government. However, considering that there were a series of proclamations announcing the replacements to those who were killed in yesterday's audacious bombing of security officials, including the defense minister and his deputy (one of Assad's brothers-in-law), it appears that he's still running the show.

The fact that Assad made no public statement about such a devastating attack quickly fueled rumors that the president himself had been injured or killed. It was also unclear where his wife and children were after the bombing.

One Syrian opposition activist claimed in an interview with Al Arabiya television network that the presidential jet had left the Damascus airport Wednesday for Latakia, echoing a flurry of online claims by activists that Assad had been injured and sent to the Mediterranean port city.

However, Syrian state media reported that Assad had issued two decrees after the Wednesday attack, appointing Gen. Fahd Jassem Freij as defense minister and deputy commander-in-chief of the army.

There are rumors that he's out of Damascus and running things from one of his palaces in Latakia (an Alawite majority town on the coast), and there are rumors that his presidential jet has taken off to points unknown, though it appears that the destination was Latakia.

None of the reports can be substantiated though he's clearly unsure of his personal safety so he's on the move and doesn't know who he can trust. So, there's a measure of safety in the silence/ambiguity.

Yesterday's events have once again raised questions of a post-Assad Syria, and the US is beginning to consider that possibility, including consulting with Israel and other countries.

All this comes as Syrian forces continue attacking Damascus from the air and with artillery.

The army shelled its own capital from the surrounding mountains as night fell on Wednesday. Government troops, having vowed retaliation for the assassination, fired machine guns into the city from helicopters.

Rebels, massed in several neighborhoods, are armed mostly with small arms and rocket-propelled grenades.

Activist videos posted on the Internet showed bloodied bodies lying in the street.

Striking at the Heart of Assad's Regime

Fighting has intensified in and around Damascus over the past couple of days, but today's news is breathtaking in its consequences. A suicide bomber, who apparently was a bodyguard, blew up at a meeting of high ranking security officials.

Bashar al-Assad's brother in law and defense minister were killed in the blast. At the same time several reports indicate that more generals have defected.

The assassinations were the first of such high-ranking members of the power elite in the 17-month revolt against Mr. Assad’s rule, and could represent a turning point in the conflict, analysts said, confirming that opposition forces have been marshaling their strength to strike at the close-knit centers of state power.

According to state television, the dead included the defense minister, Daoud Rajha, and Asef Shawkat, the president’s brother-in-law who was the deputy chief of staff of the Syrian military. But the television report rejected claims by activists that the minister of the interior also was killed, saying he remained alive and in stable condition.

The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said all the members of the crisis group set up by President Assad to try to put down the revolt were are either dead or injured. But there was no official confirmation of that account.

With tensions already high in Damascus after three days of clashes between the Syrian Army and rebels near the city center, SANA, the official news agency, described the assault as a “suicide terrorist attack.” Opponents claimed a major victory.

“The Syrian regime has started to collapse,” said the activist who heads the Syrian Observatory. “There was fighting for three days inside Damascus, it was not just a gun battle, and now someone has killed or injured all these important people.”

The Free Syrian Army has claimed responsibility and that they were able to infiltrate the ministry building shows that the opposition has managed to infiltrate the regime and its security measures.

It's premature to call this the beginning of the end of Assad's regime, but it's the beginning of the next phase in the ongoing civil war. Considering that those involved plotting in the brutal crackdown were among those killed, it's going to be interesting to see the strategy that Assad uses going forward. Considering how ignorant Assad is of the plight of his countrymen, I fully expect him to further intensify the crackdown and brutalization of the Syrian people.

We're already seeing that there is widespread shelling of civilian areas, as BBC reports.

The more that he uses violence, the more the country realizes that Assad has got to go. We're already seeing some of those dividends as more military leaders defect rather than stay and fight against their fellow countrymen.

The British Foreign Secretary, in condemning the bombing that took out Assad's defense ministers, also used it as an opportunity to again assert that the UN needs to act under Chapter VII (using force) to solve the crisis there.

Russia continues blocking UN Chapter VII-type actions, but it's again reiterating that it will not prop up Assad. That's rather duplicitous of them, considering that Assad is being propped up by Russia by their stubborn refusal to offer up Assad a golden parachute to exile that avoids the ignominious end that met the likes of Mumar Khadafi.

UPDATE:
I don't have a crystal ball about what will happen, but it might be instructive to look at Yemen's civil war/insurrection for guidance. There, Ali Abdullah Saleh was hit in a bombing and forced to leave the country for medical treatment but he and his regime never broke and he was able to return. The endgame there was that on January 22, 2012, the Yemeni parliament passed a law that granted Saleh immunity from being prosecuted and he left Yemen for treatment in the United States. Saleh stepped down and formally ceded power to his deputy Abd Rabbuh Mansur Al-Hadi and Al-Hadi will be a caretaker for the government as a new constitution is drafted and new elections are scheduled for 2014. However, the security situation there remains dire as the government is locked in a battle with al Qaeda.

UPDATE:
Video is streaming showing fighting on the streets in Damascus despite propaganda video shown by Assad's media outlets attempting to show calm:

Concerns Mounting Over Possible Balkanization of Syria

Syria remains in the throes of a civil war, and there are reports indicating that Assad may be trying to carve out an Alawite sector of the country, essentially engaging in ethnic cleansing so that the Alawite minority can retain control over some geographical portion of Syria. They point to an increasing trend of sectarian attacks.

I don't think Assad's thinking about retaining just part of Syria. He's looking to crush the rebellion and retain control of all Syrian territory.

A far more worrisome possibility, particularly for Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and Iraq is that Assad falls and the power vacuum results in a jihadi safe haven from which attacks could be launched at all of Syria's neighbors.

Israeli officials believe it's just a matter of time before Assad falls, but they're concerned about the possibility of a failed state on its border and the potential influx of Iranian and Hizbullah influence:

The regime of Bashar Assad in Syria will not overcome the uprising against it, although it might survive for anywhere between another two months and a little more than two years, Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday.

Kochavi said that the Golan Heights region could turn into a theater of anti-Israel operations, similar to the Sinai Peninsula region, due the growing presence of global Jihadists in Syria.

Kochavi showed the committee satellite photographs of Syrian artillery batteries firing indiscriminately into urban populated areas. Kochavi said that the Syrian military is acting in a "brutal" manner, indicating the Syrian military's despair over the fact that it can't find an effective way to suppress the riots.

Kochavi said that the clashes in Syria are worsening on a daily basis, with 500 to 700 people being killed every week, and that the country is experiencing an accelerated process of Iraqization.

The chances of a war between Israel and Syria are low, even as a last resort for Assad, Kochavi said. Assad has moved many of his forces from the Golan region to Damascus because he is not concerned about a conflict with Israel.

Kochavi said that Iran and Hezbollah are preparing for the day after Assad's fall from power.

I've repeatedly noted that Assad has no problem engaging in war crimes, and Israeli officials note that is precisely what Assad is engaging in with indiscriminate shelling of civilians. Assad and his loyalists are engaged in a fight for their survival, and it means eliminating their enemies in the process.

Assad's fight is increasingly hitting closer and closer to home. The fighting isn't confined to the provinces of Hama or Homs; they're in his backyard. The fighting is now in Damascus suburbs.

Violence is continuing to spread across Syria and in the capital Damascus as rebels - now better-equipped and more organised - confront the army and government-backed militia.

The rebel Free Syrian Army said it had launched Operation Damascus Volcano, and has called for an escalation of attacks on regime targets and the blocking of main roads all around the country.

One of the biggest and most organised opposition groups, the Muslim Brotherhood, has called on all Syrians to join what it called a decisive battle.

Witnesses say the government's military deployment in Damascus is the biggest since protests against President Bashar al-Assad's rule began in March last year.

There have also been video showing roads being blocked in and around Damascus as well as firebombing of vehicles ostensibly occupied by regime loyalists. The increased disruptions of life in Damascus is starting to take a toll there, but that only adds to the overall uptick in number of refugees flowing into neighboring Turkey and the numbers are increasing.

Syrian Civil War Bloodletting Continues

It's been apparent that Syria has been waging a civil war for nearly a year now, but a growing number of diplomats and International Red Cross are being forced to realize that the situation isn't a mere insurrection or rebels or terrorists fighting against Bashar al-Assad's regime as Assad would have the world believe.

Rebel groups have been taking and holding territory around the country, but not without a great cost to the Syrians. Assad's taken a no-holds-barred policy, and artillery assaults and massacres are being utilized on an increasingly regular basis. It's Assad's updated Hama rules. There can be no opposition if you utterly crush it.

Despite Assad's claims that he's willing to talk transition and increased power to opposition groups, Assad's actions show he has no intention to share power or ever willingly step down. Instead, he's about decimating the opposition by and through his military forces and loyalist militias.

While fighting has been ongoing around the country, and particularly in rebel strongholds such as Hama and Homs, there's renewed fighting on the capital's doorstep. Fighting has resumed in Damascus suburbs, and as has been typical with Assad, his media outlets report this as the regime going after terror groups:

The official Syrian news service reported Monday that authorities were in pursuit of an "armed terrorist group" that had fled from the capital's Tadamon district. Heavy fighting was reported Sunday in that neighborhood.

Fighting was ongoing Monday in the Abu Habil and al-Zahira areas of the capital, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group based in Britain.

Other opposition activists reported clashes in the south Damascus area of Kafr Souseh. A video purportedly filmed in that district in the dawn hours included the sounds of heavy shooting.

Later, an activist reached by telephone said battles were raging in the Midan district, an opposition hotbed. The activist, who requested anonymity because of safety concerns, said Sunday's clashes in southern Damascus occurred in the Kfar Souseh area as well as Tadamon.

The Local Coordination Committees, a network of opposition groups, said government troops had blocked the road leading to the Midan on Monday. Amateur video footage purportedly filmed in Midan and shared on Facebook showed thick clouds of black smoke rising to the sky. In another clip, the sound of heavy gunfire could be heard.

The diplomats seem to be as clueless as they've always been when dealing with the situation - and no amount of paper produced at the Arab League or United Nations will force Assad aside, not when Russia continues to backstop the Assad regime. Russia has yet to understand the consequences of that action, even as they're claiming that the West is blackmailing them into action and the US isn't willing to undertake another NATO mission in Syria when presidential elections are awaiting in November. The status quo will continue into 2013, so that leaves both Assad and the rebels, including the Syrian National Council to figure out how to survive past then. That means the civil war will continue grinding out a butchers' bill that grows by the day.

All the while, other countries are growing tired of Assad's actions, as Morocco has tossed out Assad's diplomats.

Cracks Appear In Syrian Government as Deputy Oil Minister Defects Over Ongoing Brutality

Overnight, the deputy oil minister produced a YouTube clip announcing his intentions to defect in protest over Bashar al-Assad's ongoing brutalization of the Syrian people in his attempt to crush the rebellion against his regime.

The man, Abdo Husameddine, cited the government’s “brutal” crackdown against protesters in explaining his decision to defect, and he urged other officials to follow suit.

“I join the revolution of this dignified people,” he declared in the video, which was filmed in an unidentified location.

“I have been in government for 33 years. I did not want to end my career serving the crimes of this regime. I have preferred to do what is right although I know that this regime will burn my house and persecute my family,” he said.

The man described himself in the video as “an assistant to the minister of oil and mineral resources.” The Web site of the Syrian Oil Ministry identifies a man called Abdo Husameddine as an assistant oil minister.

The regime has yet to confirm the actions.



He would be the highest ranking official to defect to date, and could signal others to defect as well. Defecting officials helped strengthen international resolve in dealing with Mumar Khadafi - showing that the opposition was coalescing into an internationally recognizable group worthy of support. If sufficient numbers of high ranking officials defect, that could potentially happen for Syria as well.

However, I think it would take more than just a deputy oil minister or other mid-ranking officials to sway international opinion. It would take the defection of high ranking military officials - and I just don't see that happening. The Syrian military and security apparatus is dominated by loyalists and their self-interest lies in supporting the regime.

All the while, Assad's security forces continue their murderous attacks against the Syrian people. Another eight were killed in fighting, while reports of torture at Syrian military hospitals continue to increase. Those reports include accounts of the torture of children among those detained by the regime in the ongoing crackdown.

UPDATE:
Well, it looks like I've got to eat my words above. Four generals have apparently defected from Assad's military forces and joined with the opposition, joining with three others who defected previously.

The men fled over the past three days to a camp for Syrian army deserters in southern Turkey, according to Lieutenant Khaled al-Hamoud, a spokesman for the Free Syrian Army (FSA). He told Reuters by telephone from Turkey the desertions bring to seven the number of brigadier generals who have defected.

The seven are the highest-ranking officers to abandon Assad, and the rank is the fifth highest in the Syrian armed forces. Mustafa Sheikh was the first brigadier general to announce his defection.

The tide seems to be turning against Assad if his previously loyal military leaders are bailing on him.

The Pacification of Homs Continues With Reports of Torture and Abuse

The pacification of Homs may be nearing an end, but human rights groups are still being kept from the epicenter of the violence - the Baba Amr neighborhood. There are also reports that doctors at a military hospital where some of the victims of the attacks have been taken are being tortured by those same doctors.

The very graphic video, which the news channel said was filmed covertly, showed severely wounded men blindfolded and chained to hospital beds. A rubber whip and an electrical cable sit on a table in one room.

"I have seen detainees being tortured by electrocution, whipping, beating with batons, and by breaking their legs," the employee told a French photojournalist who reportedly smuggled the video outside of Syria, according to Channel 4.

The authenticity of the film could not be independently verified.

The hospital employee said he tried to stop "the shameful things" that were happening but was called a traitor.

He said the torture was carried out by civilian and military surgeons and other medical staff including nurses. It reportedly took place in the ambulance section, the prison ward, the X-ray department and the intensive care unit. The footage was filmed over the past three months, Channel 4 said.

The situation is dire throughout the country, as Assad's forces continue attacking locations where opposition groups are known to be - including Deraa (where the protests first took hold).

At least six people were killed on Tuesday, including a young girl, as Syrian forces launched a major assault on Herak, a town in the southern province of Daraa, a monitoring group said.

The girl was shot dead by a sniper and five soldiers were killed in clashes with the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

"Large military forces, including tanks and armoured troop carriers, launched an assault on Herak," the Britain-based monitoring group added, citing residents.

And in Maaret al-Numan, a town in the northwestern province of Idlib, a 23-year-old man was shot dead by sniper fire, according to the Observatory. Security forces also killed two others in Idlib.

After fleeing the battered Baba Amr district in the flashpoint central city of Homs, the rebels regrouped in nearby Rastan, which the Observatory and activists said came under artillery fire on Sunday and Monday.

Rastan, bombed intermittently since February 5, is located on the motorway linking Damascus to northern Syria.

Qusayr, another town in Homs province that has fallen mainly under rebel control, was also targeted by heavy bombardment, according to Anas Abu Ali, an official with the FSA.

Assad's forces also attacked a bridge that refugees were using to flee towards Lebanon.

Rebels on Run As Assad's Brutal Crackdown Continues

Rebel forces opposing Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria are quitting from the Bab Amr neighborhood in Homs that has seen some of the most violent confrontations since protesters began calling for regime change in the country nearly a year ago. Hundreds have died in the past month as Assad's forces have launched one artillery and mortar barrage after another against the city.

The rebels’ decision came a day after Syria’s army launched a fresh push to retake Bab Amr, which had become a powerful symbol of resistance to the regime led by President Bashar al-Assad. The district has been under siege by government troops, bombarded on a daily basis for nearly four weeks.

Unconfirmed reports that government forces had entered the neighborhood and were combing the streets hunting for activists immediately raised fears for the safety of the estimated 4,000 civilians who remain in Bab Amr. A Homs activist who asked to be identified only as Sami said massive explosions were shaking the city as the army closed in on the neighborhood and bombarded areas around it, an apparent effort to block the retreating rebels.

Activist groups published the names of 17 civilians who they said had been hacked to death by government forces on the outskirts of Bab Amr. Some reports said the victims had been beheaded.

“Bab Amr is now most probably under army control,” said Wissam Tarif, an activist with the advocacy group Avaaz, in Beirut, who is in contact with Free Syrian Army soldiers inside Homs. “We are very concerned about the civilians because the history of this regime means they are likely to kill everyone who is there.”

“Another Hama is happening in 2012, and the world is watching,” Tarif added. He was referring to the 1982 crackdown by Assad’s father against a revolt in the nearby city of Hama, in which at least 10,000 people are believed to have died.

Aid groups are apparently now able to enter Homs.

While the news is grim from Homs, the opposition appears to be consolidating both militarily and politically. Opposition groups are apparently consolidating their efforts with those groups that have taken up arms against Assad. The civilian protesters continue risking their lives just by going into the streets in protest, but this move puts them in even greater risk. A military bureau has been created within the Syrian National Council that will operate like an established defense ministry.

The consolidation of rebel/opposition forces under a single banner, along with greater coordination among protesters, increases the likelihood of a civil war. I'd say that Syria is past the point of an insurrection and is already engaged in a civil war - rebel forces have been holding territory and there are established forces on both sides each reporting to a centralized authority.