Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Egypt’s Descent in to the Heart of Darkness

Madness, power, and no good outcome on immediate horizon.

The military’s removal of President Mohammad Morsi opened up a can of worms from which the Egyptian polity is not likely to recover from anytime soon.

Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood had been busy attempting to impose its socio-political will on a nation that was largely unwilling to go along with their agenda. The military was even more reluctant since it saw Morsi’s actions as destabilizing.

So, instead of waiting until new elections, the military did what it’s done repeatedly over the past 60 years. It’s deposed the existing regime and supplanted it with one favorable to its own agenda. After all, Nasser came to power in a coup. Sadat came to power from a coup. Mubarak came to power with the assent of the military, and the military then deposed Mubarak. Now, they’re facing an organized and militarized threat in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Brotherhood is not backing down and yesterday’s clashes with police and security forces left more than 500 dead and thousands injured.

It’s only going to get worse from here because the Brotherhood’s leadership now believes that they have no other options in the political arena. The military’s effort showed the Brotherhood that they will not be allowed to wield political power, and that’s infuriating to the group, which actually won the right to govern in the historic elections following the coup that deposed Mubarak.

But what the Brotherhood doesn’t understand is that their heavy-handed wielding of political power was not without consequences. It was tremendously unpopular with a majority of Egyptians who saw it as an effort to impose social restrictions at a time when the economy continued to suffer from the very problems that led to Mubarak’s ouster.

The Brotherhood wasn’t dealing with the underlying economic and social conditions that led to an anemic economy, high unemployment, food shortages, and high costs for fuel and food.

The military’s brutal crackdown against the Brotherhood’s protest camps across Cairo forestalls any kind of reconciliation as the lines in the sand have been drawn. The Brotherhood isn’t going to trust the military or attempts to bring it back into a political process, when their leader remains arrested and out of power. The military is losing in this as well, given that they overthrew a sitting government.

Worst of all, Egyptians are losing out because the political chaos is exacerbating the economic chaos and conditions are only going to get worse. Extremists are going to take advantage of the situation.

All of this presents huge challenges for foreign countries in trying to deal with the chaotic situation in Cairo. For the US, it means trying to remain above the fray but condemning the violence and a need to return to a political dialog. Critics of the Administration claim that it lost Egypt, but that ignores that the Brotherhood and the Egyptian military are the ones who brought this crisis upon itself. The US has little influence to play here, except perhaps as a mediator. The one area that the US has influence is on providing foreign assistance and military aid - withholding that aid could get the military to buy into reconciliation talks. But the Brotherhood isn’t going to go along with a deal that doesn’t end with Morsi back in the presidency.

So, until the sides see the futility of the continuing violence and shrink away from an open civil war, they will continue to run up the body count

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Mass Casualties Reported In Syrian Airstrike on Gas Station

Reports are filtering in, but it appears that the Syrian air force carried out an airstrike against a gas station in Northern Syria, and at least 30 and perhaps 100 or more people were killed. That follows reports from the Syrian media a Syrian helicopter apparently clipping an airliner flying into Damascus with 200 people on board. The plane landed safely, but the helicopter crashed.
One activist near the scene of the attack said bombs struck a gas station in the town of Ayn Issa, near a border post that Syrian opposition fighters had captured two days ago. The Syrian Observatory For Human Rights, a group based in Britain with a network of contacts in Syria, said that 110 people were either killed or wounded.

If verified, the bombing would be one of the worst casualty tolls from the Syrian military’s use of aircraft in its effort to crush the armed insurgency.

Also on Thursday, Syrian officials said that a helicopter had crashed near the capital, Damascus, close to a suburb where insurgents and government forces have battled for dominance.

The official Syrian news agency said the helicopter’s rotors had clipped the tail of a Syrian Arab airlines passenger jet with 200 people aboard. It said the jet had landed safely at the Damascus airport and no one had been injured. But an activist in Damascus said that a rebel battalion shot down the helicopter, which crashed near a salt factory near the town of Douma.
The circumstances surrounding both incidents are still from certain, and Assad's official propagandists are offering a different version of events from those of the rebel forces. The rebels claim that they shot down the helicopter, while Assad's propagandists claim it clipped a passenger plane. I find the latter to be unlikely, and if there were proof that there was a collision that it would be proffered.

The Syrian civil continues dragging on, and more than 18 months after it began, more than 22,000 have been killed across the country. Hundreds of thousands have been displaced, and refugees have spilled over into Turkey, Lebanon, and Iraq.

Bashar al-Assad's responsible for the slaughter and the mayhem that has swept the country, but he continues to fight to maintain his grip on power. However, significant portions of the country have fallen into rebel hands and the fighting has centered on those areas where rebels have maintained control. Fighting continues in Aleppo and Damascus, as well as along border posts with Turkey that have been alternatively captured by rebel forces and Assad's loyalists.

Friday, September 14, 2012

Mission Accomplished: Mystery Anti-Muslim Film Sows Violence Around World

If the intent of whoever was behind the mystery film was to disrupt US diplomatic missions around the world, mission accomplished.

The overdubbed video clips have taken on a life of their own and it's no longer about the video, but anger directed at the US for no reason other than it's the in-thing to do in places like Tunisia and Egypt. At a time when the economic conditions in those countries isn't improving after regime change, protesting against the US (and throw in the anti-Israel sentiments expressed in some) is a safe way to divert attention away from the inability to improve the economic conditions as fast as everyone wants.

Blaming the US is better than trying to create jobs in those countries. Claiming that the US engaged in blasphemy or somehow supports blasphemy is easier than trying to understand that free speech is a universal right and includes the right to say things that other groups might not like or want to hear or see, but it doesn't give anyone the right to blow stuff up or riot and destroy property. Free exercise of religion means not imposing your religious views on others, or other nations for that matter.

Those behind the film are agent provocateurs who sought to sow discord and create conflict. They achieved those goals, and now the US and those regimes in the Middle East and elsewhere these protests/riots are going on have to deal with the fallout.

One has to also wonder who benefits from the repercussions of these protests/riots/attacks. Iran definitely comes to mind, as do the regimes that replaced longstanding brutal regimes that did not tolerate dissent. This is something that has to be explored at greater depth.

Riots and protests are spreading to other countries, and the list now includes Tunisia, Lebanon (which happens to be where Pope Benedict is visiting on a diplomatic trip), Yemen, Bangladesh, and the German embassy in Khartoum Sudan has been torched. Jordan has also seen protests. Here's a map showing where those protests are underway.

But you know who hasn't seen the film or the clips - most of those protesting. It's a ginned up controversy and the film's creators/backers are still not fully known. And what's known about those involved thus far indicate that the producer was a convicted criminal and a shady character - a grifter being a most charitable term, while the director was incompetent and may not have known the plot/dialogue and the actors didn't know what they were doing or that the film was overdubbed afterwards to completely change the meaning and context of the scenes.

This situation smells, make that reeks, of the trajectory followed in the cartoon jihad that cost more than 100 lives across the world and resulted in embassies of several countries being attacked.

Once again, we have an obscure publication that gets picked up and within days is turned into a rallying cry for rioting and protests by Islamist leaders decrying the blasphemous acts and portrayals - urging death to those involved. Instead of the targets being embassies of the Danes, the nation of the Jyllands Posten, which published the cartoons originally, it's US diplomatic facilities are being targeted (and also Germany). In some instances, it appears that local governments are backing protests, while others - as in Libya - the government is actively trying to block the attacks/protests.

It may also be useful to try and distinguish between the terror attack that killed Ambassador Stevens and three other Americans in Libya and the protests/riots in Egypt and elsewhere. The attack in Libya appears to have been a preplanned attack to coincide with 9/11, while the protests elsewhere appear to be more closely related to the outrage over the mystery film. The film outrage may have spurred protests in Libya as well that were exploited by the attackers, but the scenario has blurred together into one mess that will take quite some time to sort out.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Protests Continue Against Mystery Film; US Embassies On Alert

Protests continue in Egypt and now in Yemen against US embassies over the mysterious anti-Muslim film that set the actions of the past few days, including deadly attacks against the US mission in Libya that ended in the death of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans, plus another 30 injuries to both American and Libyans.
The ambassador, J. Christopher Stevens, was missing almost immediately after the start of an intense, four-hour firefight for control of the mission, and his body was not located until Wednesday morning at dawn, when he was found dead at a Benghazi hospital, American and Libyan officials said. It was the first time since 1979 that an American ambassador had died in a violent assault.

American and European officials said that while many details about the attack remained unclear, the assailants seemed organized, well trained and heavily armed, and they appeared to have at least some level of advance planning. But the officials cautioned that it was too soon to tell whether the attack was related to the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Fighters involved in the assault, which was spearheaded by a Islamist brigade formed during last year’s uprising against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, said in interviews during the battle that they were moved to attack the mission by anger over a 14-minute, American-made video that depicted the Prophet Muhammad, Islam’s founder, as a villainous, homosexual and child-molesting buffoon. Their attack followed by just a few hours the storming of the compound surrounding the United States Embassy in Cairo by an unarmed mob protesting the same video. On Wednesday, new crowds of protesters gathered outside the United States Embassies in Tunis and Cairo.

The wave of unrest set off by the video, posted online in the United States two months ago and dubbed into Arabic for the first time eight days ago, has further underscored the instability of the countries that cast off their longtime dictators in the Arab Spring revolts. It also cast doubt on the adequacy of security preparations at American diplomatic outposts in the volatile region.
Libya says that they've arrested several people in connection with the attacks, and the US has sent a Marine FAST team to Libya. The US has also sent two warships (one already on station) and a drone unit to gather intel and to go after those responsible.

The million dollar question remains who was behind the film, what were their goals and aims, and how exactly an obscure film (which is really just a bunch of badly overdubbed film clips) that appears to have been uploaded in July, saw less than a few thousand hits since, exploded into the nexus of an international conflagration of attacks against US embassies in concert with 9/11. It appears that the film was overdubbed with anti-Muslim sentiments only eight days ago. Even then, it received little attention.

I don't believe in coincidences. Nor do I believe what anyone involved the movie has had to say thus far - because much of what they've said can't be confirmed by anyone. Sam Bacile doesn't appear to have existed except as a pseudonym/agent provocateur and a guy who had apparently come forward to claim that he was Bacile has recanted. Morris Sedak is an agitator whose motives are to foment war back in Egypt. Steve Klein has ties to extremist groups, but his involvement is only tangential to the overall story. The references to Jewish donors/backers/Israel is a misdirection play to try and bring the usual assortment of anti Jewish and anti-Israel sentiment to a head and to inflame passions even further.

Is it possible that AQ or another terror group took advantage of the protests in Egypt to use similar protests in Libya to carry out the deadly attacks there? Possibly, and the US government is looking at that possibility quite seriously.

The situation in Egypt also appears to have taken on a life of its own, and there are reports of protests elsewhere, including Yemen. This isn't necessarily by coincidence either. Whoever spread the anti-Muslim overdubbed versions basically did their own Hitler's Downfall-style routine to rant against Islam. We need to know who was behind the overdub, and at the same time, do more to track down who was responsible for the Libya attack and provide increased protection to our other embassies and consulates.

The US has got debunk the nonsense online that rabble rousers and militant mullahs are spreading to those who are now protesting/rioting - mostly without even seeing the film clips at issue or knowing; that's what many of the Administration and embassy statements refer to - protecting rights of free speech and freedom of religion, but that the two have to coexist without engaging in violence. It's not easy since the mindset of those who would protest and engage in violence are primed to act, and it confirms the biases of both those militant Islamists and socons who think Islam is an enemy of civilization. Extremists on both sides are exploiting the situation to their own ends, and one has to wonder who benefits from this.

That's why I keep going back to Iran. Iran has the means and stands to benefit from sowing violence and discord across the region - to tie up US and rival interests while Iran continues on its aggressive path.

As far as its impact on the US presidential election, the response from GOPer Mitt Romney and his supporters seems to be that the Obama Administration policy resulted in creating the environment allowing the attacks, the foreign policy amounts to apologia, and the response was inattentive and scattershot. Still, the main difference between Romney's policies and those of the Administration are one of tone, since Obama has largely carried over Bush Administration policies, including on dealing with international terrorism, going after those responsible for attacks on US interests around the world, and

Friday, August 31, 2012

Syrian Civil War Update: Rebels Again Attack Assad's Security Compounds

Despite a relentless pounding from Syrian military and loyalist militias, the rebel forces continue to more than hold their own against a better equipped force. The rebels have once again attacked security compounds in Aleppo and also along the border with Iraq:
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Friday that one of the assaults in Aleppo sparked a firefight that killed and wounded a number of government troops. It gave no figures.

Last month, rebel forces took control of parts of Syria's commercial hub, sparking fierce fighting there.

Also Friday, the monitoring group said government troops and rebels were locked in battle north of the capital, Damascus, and in Albu Kamal, on the Iraqi border. Internet video appeared to show fighting in Homs, Daraa and Damascus.
The fighting continues to inflict casualties on civilians and the war of words over Assad's backers continues as well. Egyptian leader Mohamed Morsi again attacked Iran over its support for the Assad regime during the meeting for nonaligned nations taking place in Tehran. Iran subsequently attacked Morsi for his calls for the nonaligned nations to act to bring the civil war to an end. Iranian officials have remained steadfast in their support of Assad.

Part of that reason could be that Assad thinks that he's winning. Despite Assad losing control of significant portions of the country, he thinks his military has the upper hand against the rebel forces. That could be due in part to delusions of grandeur, his military leaders telling Assad what he wants to hear rather than what the situation on the ground really is, or that he believes that the crackdown is working to rid himself of the rebel threat via a meatgrinder.

Turkey is calling for a safe haven, which seems to be a step towards establishing a no-fly zone to protect Syrians from the onslaught of air attacks.

UN Secretary General called on Assad to stop using heavy weapons against civilian populations. The call will go unheeded, as Assad has repeatedly shown that his only interest is preserving his power, not human rights or arranging some form of power-sharing with the opposition.

France is looking at ways of funneling aid to those parts of Syria that are controlled by the rebel forces.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Syrian Civil War Update: Even Bread Lines Aren't Safe From Assad's Attacks

Bashar al Assad is feeling the heat on all fronts. His security forces and loyalist goons can't stop the rebel forces from gaining and holding territory despite having a monopoly on air power and artillery. His backers remain at Iran, Russia, and China, and that may not be enough to keep him in power.

Egypt's new President Mohamad Morsi has called for an intervention in Syria and told Iran that it's thwarting a peaceful transition of power in Syria by backing Assad. Morsi called out Iran on Iran's home turf during a meeting of the non-aligned nations.

It's not surprising that Assad's diplomats walked out during Morsi's meeting. They have few friends among diplomats across the globe, and Morsi's criticism came on Syria's primary backer's doorstep.

Assad's regime keeps trying to play down the slow but steady stream of defectors, but the fact is that support for Assad within his regime isn't what it once was. The civil war rages on, the death toll mounts, and there is disillusionment with how Assad has handled everything - namely preserving power for himself at the expense of more than 20,000 lives across the country. The number of refugees is continuing to rise because the violence continues through the heart of Syria's urban areas. Those refugees are a problem not only for Syria, but the countries where they are seeking refuge. That is likely to inflame tensions and could potentially spur those countries, including Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan, to take action - closing down the border, military action against Syria, or demanding that the UN take more resolute action than weak worded resolutions that are teethless because Russia and China are blocking anything more constructive.

But most of all, his incessant attacks on civilians will take its toll. You cannot murder dozens of people by carrying out airstrikes against people queued up in lines for bread without all Syrians taking notice.

Dozens were killed when airstrikes over a period of days hit multiple breadlines in Aleppo.
Syrian jets and artillery have struck at least 10 bakeries in Aleppo in the last three weeks, killing dozens of people as they waited in line to buy bread, Human Rights Watch said on Thursday, accusing the military of targeting civilians.

The U.S.-based group said the attacks were either aimed at or were done without care to avoid the hundreds of civilians forced to queue outside a dwindling number of bakeries in Syria's biggest city, a front line in the civil war.

"The attacks are at least recklessly indiscriminate and the pattern and number of attacks suggest that government forces have been targeting civilians," Human Rights Watch (HRW) said.

"Both reckless indiscriminate attacks and deliberately targeting civilians are war crimes."

One attack on August 16 killed around 60 people and wounded more than 70, said HRW, which sent a researcher to the embattled city.

Food shortages in Aleppo - a focal point of the 17-month-old uprising against President Bashar al-Assad - have forced many bakeries to close, meaning huge queues for the food staple outside the remaining shops.

"Day after day, Aleppo residents line up to get bread for their families, and instead get shrapnel piercing their bodies from government bombs and shells," said Ole Solvang, the HRW researcher who visited Aleppo.
That's a textbook example of war crimes and crimes against humanity carried out by the Assad regime. Assad's forces targeted civilian populations and fired indiscriminately on civilian populations. Assad must be held to account for his atrocities.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Foreign Fighters Flocking To Syria As Civil War Continues

Dozens of people were killed near Damascus when the Syrian military opened fire on apartment complexes in the city. The fighting is particularly intense in Daraya, on the southwest edge of Damascus, and in Hajar al-Aswad. Both are rebel strongholds. At least 10 security forces were killed when rebels attacked a government checkpoint on the Daraa-Damascus highway.

Meanwhile, foreign fighters are flocking to Syria just as they did in fighting in Libya and Iraq. The Russians believe at least 10-15,000 foreign fighters are in Syria, but the Russians don't break down who those foreign fighters are siding with.

The numbers are significant, and it further appears that at least one of those killed was involved in the conflict in Chechnya. The son of a Chechen warlord was among those who died in the Syrian conflict. While some reports indicate that he died while fighting on the side of the rebels, others indicate that he was a bystander in the conflict and that he was trying to leave the country.
Rustam Gelayev was killed in the shelling of a mosque in Aleppo by forces loyal to Assad earlier this month, according to the website chechenews.com.

The report, which cited unidentified sources in Chechnya, said Gelayev, 24, had joined a unit of ethnic Chechen volunteers fighting alongside Syrian insurgents in a 17-month-old uprising against Assad, who has close ties with Moscow.

Another website sympathetic to the insurgents, kavkazcenter.com, said he had been killed when his unit "entered into a battle with superior forces of the Alawite regime ... presumably between August 11 and August 13."

Syria's conflict pits largely Sunni Muslim insurgents against Assad's minority Alawite community that has long dominated the power structure. Chechens are Sunni Muslims.

The Russian newspaper Kommersant, however, cited a relative of Gelayev as saying he had been studying in Syria, had decided to leave because of the violence and was making his way to Turkey when he was killed.
Fighting has continued across the country, from Aleppo to Damascus.

Meanwhile, it should come as no surprise that the Bashar al-Assad's media flacks are blaming the rebels for the death of a Japanese reporter who was killed earlier this week.
Veteran Japanese war correspondent Mika Yamamoto on Monday became the first foreign journalist to die in Aleppo since clashes between rebels and regime forces erupted there almost a month ago.

Rebels have said she was killed by regime forces. Japan's Foreign Ministry said she was hit by gunfire while traveling with rebels from the Free Syrian Army.

Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal Mekdad said Thursday that journalists who behave in an "irresponsible" way should expect all kinds of possibilities.
The Syrian government has been trying to stifle any kind of independent journalism in the country, limiting what journalists can say or view. Yamamoto was killed because he was embedded with the rebels when they came under fire.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

War Crimes Abound As Syrian Civil War Drags On

It should come as no surprise that war crimes are an ongoing feature of the Syrian civil war. Whether it's the Syrian military operating at the behest of Bashar al-Assad bombarding civilian areas or his loyalist militias engaging in massacres, or rebel forces murdering captured government officials by throwing them off rooftops, war crimes are an ongoing concern and worry for Syrians and the human rights groups tracking such actions.

The only difference between the sides is the scope of the war crimes and human rights violations; the rebels have done it to a lesser degree than Assad's goon squads:
Syrian government forces and allied shabbiha militia have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, including murder and torture in what appears to be state-directed policy, UN human rights investigators said on Wednesday.

Syrian rebels fighting to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad have also committed war crimes but these "did not reach the gravity, frequency and scale" of those carried out by the army and security forces, they said.

"The commission found reasonable grounds to believe that government forces and the shabbiha had committed the crimes against humanity of murder and of torture, war crimes and gross violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law, including unlawful killing, torture, arbitrary arrest and detention, sexual violence, indiscriminate attack, pillaging and destruction of property," said the 102-page report by the independent investigators led by Paulo Pinheiro.

Both government forces and armed insurgents had violated rights of children during the 17-month-old conflict, it said.
Airstrikes continue to take their toll on the Syrian people.

Meanwhile, the violence continues to spill over into Lebanon while Israel, Iraq, and Turkey are all warily watching the situation. The violence in Lebanon includes a series of abductions as retaliation for relatives being captured or killed inside Syria.

At the same time, the Pentagon is warning that Iran is training militias to fight in support of Assad inside Syria.
Sitting alongside Panetta at a Pentagon news conference Tuesday, Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the militia, which is generally made up of Syrian Shiite forces, is being used to take the pressure off the Syrian regime forces.

“Any army would be taxed with that kind of pace,” Dempsey said. “They are having resupply problems, they are having morale problems, they are having the kind of wear and tear that would come of being in a fight for as long as they have.”

Dempsey also said that it appears Syrian rebels were able to shoot down a Syrian warplane but said he has seen no indication that they are armed with heavy weapons or surface-to-air missiles, at least not yet.

He says the MiG fighter could have been shot down with small arms fire. Syria has blamed the crash on a technical malfunction, but Dempsey said the cause “didn’t appear to be mechanical.”
The Syrian civil war has aspects of a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar among others. Iran, both directly and indirectly, is supporting Assad's regime while Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar are supporting the rebel forces hoping to topple Assad's regime. Russia is also trying to stave off NATO or UN military action to bring the conflict to a close, which has the effect of supporting Assad and his odious regime. That compares with France and the US, which are leading efforts to bring sanctions and other actions to bear against Assad. The other actions include covert support for the rebel forces, including communications gear and logistical support at the US base at Incerlik in Turkey.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Is Assad's Regime On Verge of Collapsing?

According to the recently defected former Prime Minister Riyad Hijab, Bashar al-Assad's regime controls no more than 30% of the country and it's on the verge of collapsing.
“Based on my experience and my position, the regime is falling apart morally, materially, economically,” the former official, Riyad Farid Hijab, said at a news conference in Amman, Jordan. “Its military is rusting, and it only controls 30 percent of Syria’s territory.”

He added that many high-level civilian and military officials in Syria — “leaders with dignity” — were waiting to defect. Mr. Hijab said he fled the Syrian capital, Damascus, because the government threatened his family and had no reasonable means to end the violence. He also urged the opposition to unify and to move ahead with plans for a transitional government and “a civilian democratic state that preserves the right, justice and dignity of all Syrians.”

But he said he had no interest in a formal position. “I have sacrificed myself in the campaign of righteousness,” he said. “I don’t want to satisfy anyone but God.”

Mr. Hijab’s claims about the weakness of the Assad government could not be independently verified, and he gave few details to support his harsh assessment. A Sunni technocrat from the eastern city of Deir al-Zour — which has been enduring shelling and fighting for weeks — Mr. Hijab was not a member of Mr. Assad’s inner circle, and he was appointed to the position of prime minister only in June.
There's no way to know for sure just how secure Assad's regime is, but there have been indications that Assad's lost control of vast swaths of the country. His security forces have been hard pressed to retain control of Syria's two biggest cities - Damascus and Aleppo. Rebels managed to assassinate key security members in a bombing several weeks ago. There have been a steady but increasing stream of defections, including Hijab.

It also appears that Assad's brother was grievously injured in that July 18 bombing. A Russian minister also indicated that Assad's willing to give up power:
Quoting Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, the newspaper reported that Maher Assad's condition "is very serious and he is fighting for his life."

The July blast took place during a high-level meeting at the state security ministry in the capital. Among those killed were Defense Minister Daoud Rajha, former Defense Minister Hassan Turkmani, and Assad brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, who served as the country's deputy defense minister. The suicide attack was carried out by a bodyguard for the president's inner circle, a Syrian security source said at the time. Until now it was unclear whether Maher Assad had attended the meeting.

Bogdanov added that President Assad is prepared to give up power, according to the Al-Watan report. "We ask that this issue be dealt with quickly to bring about a solution to the crisis," he said. "We are speaking with the opposition and the Syrian government on a daily basis."
However, Assad's security forces continue the bloodletting and no one within the security establishment is willing to tell Assad that his time is done for the sake of all Syrians. He's apparently content to continue the violence to preserve his power. The Russians have moved to deny Bogdanov's claims, which further suggests that Assad isn't going anywhere - at least for now. They claim that Bogdanov never gave any interview to al-Watan, which other media outlets quickly re-reported.

There are also indications that Russia and Iran are busy propping up Assad's regime, even as Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are assisting the rebels.

At the same time, al Qaeda and other terror groups, including Hizbullah are looking to fill the power vacuum, which is something that Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Israel are all keenly hoping to avoid.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation suspended Syria from its membership as another UN official envoy is visiting Syria so as to draw attention to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Syria. The UN mission will fail just as surely as Kofi Annan's attempts did; Assad has no intention of giving up power, or stopping the violence, and rebel forces are just as unwilling to stop their own efforts as they continue to maintain and gain territory, even if those gains come at a significant humanitarian cost or that retribution for being part of Assad's government includes war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Thursday, August 09, 2012

Egypt Continues Sinai Offensive

The Egyptian government is continuing to go after those responsible for a series of attacks on Egyptian security posts in Sinai. It's the largest Egyptian military operation in Sinai since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Hundreds of military vehicles and personnel are involved.
Egypt's President Mohamed Mursi - whose Islamist background in the Muslim Brotherhood has been eyed with suspicion by Israel since he was elected in June - on Wednesday fired the region's governor and country's intelligence chief in response to public anger over Sunday's attack. No one has claimed responsibility for the assault, in which the assailants seized two armored vehicles to storm an Israeli border crossing. One made it through before the attackers were killed by Israeli fire. Israel says militants based in Sinai and Palestinian hardliners in neighboring Gaza pose a growing threat to its border. It says Palestinians use illegal tunnels to smuggle in guns and travel across to join those on the Egyptian side. Israel has also been wary of Mursi's ideological affinity with Hamas, the Islamist group ruling Gaza, fearing he would take a softer position on Palestinian militancy than Mubarak. Mursi has brushed aside accusations that his politics would make it difficult for him to take a strong stance against violent groups sworn to Israel's destruction. His response to Sunday's attack, which happened during the evening "iftar" meal which breaks the daytime fast during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, may also be underpinned by public anger over the deaths of the border guards. In Egypt, there is wide respect for rank-and-file soldiers who are often poorly paid conscripts working in isolated places far from their families. Comments suggesting outgoing intelligence chief Mourad Mwafi had been aware of a threat but took no action fuelled that anger - despite suggestions he had been used as a scapegoat. "...we never imagined that a Muslim would kill his Muslim brother at iftar," Egypt's state news agency MENA quoted Mwafi as telling his Turkish counterpart.
Mursi is in a no-win position with the Islamists. On the one hand, he gained power because of support from the Muslim Brotherhood. On the other, attacking the Egyptian military cannot go unchallenged. The situation is being eyed warily in Israel, as the have to address the ongoing threats along Israel's southern border all while monitoring events in Syria.

Wednesday, August 08, 2012

Egypt Carries Out Airstrikes Against Terrorists Responsible For Sinai Attacks

The Egyptian air force carried out airstrikes against terrorists responsible for the attacks that left 16 Egyptian security forces dead as part of a larger plot to attack Israel in order to kill and/or capture Israelis for ransom.
The airstrikes along the Israeli-Egyptian border came after several Egyptian military checkpoints in the region were attacked overnight and three days after unknown gunmen attacked Egyptian border guards. The incidents have left Egypt lurching to contain the Sinai's growing lawlessness, which has been fostered by the upheaval of post-revolution Egypt and poses an important challenge for the country's new leadership.

An unnamed Egyptian senior military official told Agence France-Presse that “20 terrorists were killed” in the village of Tumah, near the Gaza border, by Apache helicopter strikes. The military source said the operation was ongoing and other airstrikes have been reported in neighboring villages.
It's the first airstrikes carried out by Egypt on Sinai since 1973. Such airstrikes need to be coordinated with Israel as part of the Israel-Egypt peace accord (Camp David). That means that Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas will claim that the Egyptian government is colluding with Israel.
Witnesses in Sheikh Zouaid, about 10 km (six miles) from Gaza, said they saw two military jets and heard sounds of explosions. Other witnesses in a nearby area said they saw three cars hit.

The strikes follow clashes between armed men and security forces at several security checkpoints in the Sinai region.

Armed men opened fire on several checkpoints in Arish and in the nearby town of Rafah on the border with Israel, according to a Reuters reporter and state media.

A Reuters reporter said one policeman and one resident had been confirmed wounded in these attacks.

Lawlessness in the rugged desert region bordering Israel has spread since the fall of autocratic leader Hosni Mubarak in an uprising 18 months ago and the election of an Islamist successor whose commitment to security cooperation with the Jewish state has yet to be tested.
Sinai has quickly fallen into a lawless region that the Egyptian government can barely control. That bodes poorly for Egypt, which needs tourists to feel safe across the country in order to reap the economic benefits. Terrorists have continued to infiltrate into Sinai from Gaza, despite a security cordon by Egyptian forces. Smuggling continues to do tremendous business on both sides of the Gaza-Egypt border.

Yet, the airstrikes show that the Egyptian government is willing to work with Israel on security arrangements and indicates that the Egyptians are more than willing to use force - though it appears that they're willing to do so only when their own security forces are killed. They have a long way to go on securing the Gaza border and the Hamas and other Islamic terror group agitators.

Carnage Continues Across Syria

Amnesty International has released satellite imagery showing artillery impact craters for Aleppo and its surrounding towns. It shows hundreds of craters and just how intense the fighting has been.
The international human rights group said both sides fighting in Aleppo, the country's largest city, might be held criminally accountable for their failure to protect civilians.

It said the images, obtained from commercial satellites over the July 23 - Aug. 1 period, showed more than 600 craters, probably from artillery shelling, dotting Aleppo's surrounding areas. The craters were represented with yellow dots in the images.

One photo, from July 31, showed craters next to what looked like a residential housing complex in the nearby town of Anadan, Amnesty said.

'Atrocities'
The organization expressed concern about the deployment of heavy weaponry in residential parts of Aleppo.
This is Bashar al-Assad's take on the Hama rules initiated by his father. The New York Times has reported that rebel forces have withdrawn from parts of Aleppo as Assad's forces have begun a ground action. However, rebel forces have indicated that they have not withdrawn. Fighting has been most intense in the area of Salaheddiin.

Meanwhile, Iran admits that some retired members of its Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) were among the 48 people the rebels have captured/kidnapped though Iran claims that the group was simply a bunch of pilgrims to a religious shrine. The US State Department has no reason to doubt the rebel statements about the 48.
On Wednesday, however, Iran's foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted by the Islamic Republic's government-controlled media as saying, "some retired individuals from the Guards and army" were among those being held.

"After some time in which pilgrims from Iran were not being dispatched to Syria... we took steps to send retired forces from various organizations," he was quoted as saying by Iran's state news agency and other state-run media. "Some retired individuals from the Guards and army were dispatched to Syria to make a pilgrimage."

Salehi continued to reject claims that the hostages were playing an active military role.

A day before admitting the hostages' links to the elite Iranian military unit, Salehi sent a formal letter to United Nations Secretary-General, to "seek the cooperation and the good offices of Your Excellency for securing the release of these hostages."

Rebels took the Iranians hostage recently, claiming they are members of the IRGC. In a video published on Sunday, Capt. Abdul Nasser Shumayr of the Free Syrian Army's al-Bara Brigade said three of the captives had been killed in "fierce shelling" by security forces, and he threatened to execute the rest if the bombardment continued.

Tuesday, August 07, 2012

More Defections as Casualties Climb Across Syria

The butchers' bill continues rising courtesy of Bashar al-Assad's security forces as they attempt to rebuff rebel forces in Aleppo and other parts of Syria. The security forces aren't exactly distinguishing themselves in anything other than running up a body count.

There have been an increasing number of defections, including another general among those seeking refuge in Turkey today. The rebel forces are trying to maintain support among the civilian population, but with a renewed military offensive, they are unavoidably putting them all in harm's way. The rebels continue to hold on to territory and Assad cannot allow that to continue.
Rebel headquarters in the north-east of Aleppo were bombed again this morning. The building has been attacked three times now. One bomb missed the building, hit a nearby house, killed 10 people. Another this morning hit a hospital, killed another 10. A third hit a wedding hall and no one was injured. Two bombs did hit their target inside the headquarters, but neither exploded. Nonetheless it was time for the rebels to move on. They had lost the patience of neighbours who weren’t too happy about their neighbourhood being relentless targeted by jets above. They’ve move but there has been more bombing in areas they’ve moved to. So there has been no let up in this siege.

Aleppo was strafed by Syrian air force planes and bombarded by artillery to the point that UN observers were forced to leave the city for fear for their own safety. They had that option; Syrians are between a rock and hard place. They could stay and try to ride out the fighting, but they could face being killed by fire coming from either the rebels or the military. Or, they could attempt to make a run for one of border countries, in which case they could get hit on the way or face an uncertain future as to when they could return. It's a humanitarian nightmare, and it's not going to improve anytime soon.

Aleppo has apparently been surrounded by Syrian forces, and it's likely to result in still higher casualties across the city. It appears that Assad's forces are content with aerial bombardment and artillery strikes rather than a ground offensive thus far.

Assad made his first television appearance today, when he appeared in a video alongside an Iranian diplomat.

Even as the fighting rages on, the US and others are already contemplating a post-Assad Syria. They are looking at how to avoid the very messy situations in Libya or Iraq, though I doubt anyone can prevent a sectarian conflict as Sunnis seek retribution against the Alawites and Assad loyalists who have run Syria for more than 40 years. Syria has been a police state where you would be disappeared if your loyalty was questioned. There will be demands for accountability among those involved in the Syrian security apparatus.

Meanwhile, the cyberwar between loyalists and rebel forces has spread to sites including Reuters.
On Sunday, it was a hijacked Reuters twitter feed trying to create the impression of a rebel collapse in Aleppo. On Monday, it was another account purporting to be a Russian diplomat announcing the death in Damascus of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

As the situation on the ground becomes ever more bloody, both sides in Syria are also waging what seems to be an intensifying conflict in cyberspace, often attempting to use misinformation and rumor to tilt the war in reality.

On Friday, Reuters was forced to temporarily shut down its system for posting blogs on www.Reuters.com after the appearance of a series of unauthorized, and inaccurate, reports citing opposition military reverses in Syria.

On Sunday, the company took similar action to suspend the @ReutersTech twitter account after it appeared to have been seized, renamed and used to send a series of false tweets apparently designed to undermine the rebel Free Syrian Army. Both incidents remain under investigation.

The attacks were not the first time a major media or other organization had been targeted apparently by supporters of Assad. Some - including the defacement of a Harvard University website last year to post a picture of Assad in military uniform -- have been claimed by the "Syrian Electronic Army".
Expect a whole lot more of this as Assad's forces attempt to counter all the negative press coming from their ongoing attacks against the rebel forces, while the rebels attempt to counter that with their own propaganda.

Monday, August 06, 2012

As Civil War Rages On, Syrian Foreign Minister Defects to Jordan

This is potentially a significant turning point in the ongoing Syrian civil war. The Syrian prime minister Riyad Hijab has defected to Jordan, although Bashar al-Assad's media outlets claim he was fired:
President Bashar al-Assad fired his prime minister on Monday, Syria’s official media reported, as activists countered that he had defected with several officials and military commanders in what seemed a further indication of disarray among government loyalists following a series of high-level defections and a rebel bomb attack last month that killed four of the Syrian leader’s closest security aides.

Amid a rush of jubilation, opposition figures said Prime Minister Riyad Farid Hijab had defected to neighboring Jordan along with at least two ministers and three military officers — 10 families in all, opposition leaders said. Al Jazeera television carried what it said was a statement from a spokesman for Mr. Hijab saying he had “joined the ranks of the freedom and dignity revolution.”

Mr. Hijab appeared to be the highest ranking civilian official to defect since the conflict started 17 months ago. The announcement of his dismissal by Syria’s official media came hours after a bomb explosion was reported at the main state television building in Damascus, the capital, while fighting raged in Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, and other parts of the country.

“We welcome the defection,” said Mohammed Sarmini, a spokesman for the Syrian National Council, the main opposition group, based in Turkey. “It’s not the only one and there will be more. This is proof that the regime is collapsing.
There have been a series of defections by various diplomats and several generals, but this is the highest ranking official to have done so. There have been mixed reports about whether Hijab was in Jordan or not, but it would appear that he's definitely out of the government. The question would be whether it was of his own accord or he was pushed out.

Either way, it would seem to indicate that Assad's loyalists are beginning to doubt that Assad's regime and his grip on power will continue. It could be a sign that the defectors are hoping for a spot in whatever government emerges to take Assad's place down the line, or at least survive without fear of sectarian retribution from Assad's opposition. It would also indicate that Assad's support is thinning and that he could face a coup should his higher ranking military officials band together to preserve their own positions by sacrificing Assad. After all, that's how the current situation in Egypt developed (street protests and unending violence led to Hosni Mubarak being sacked by the military that turned on him).

The fighting continues around the country, including in Damascus, where a bomb blast hit the state run television station.

At the same time, a group of Iranian "pilgrims" were captured by rebel forces. Iran has sought their release, but the rebel group claims that Iranian military officers were among those captured.
Syrian rebels said a group of people captured near Damascus included members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, according to a video broadcast by Al Arabiya, as fighting raged outside the capital and in Aleppo.

The claim contradicted Iranian descriptions of the abducted people as pilgrims. Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi urged Turkey and Qatar, which have backed the Syrian opposition, to help release the captives, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported. IRNA said 48 pilgrims were abducted.

Shiite Muslim-led Iran has been the closest regional ally of President Bashar al-Assad’s government, which is dominated by officials from the Alawite sect, affiliated with Shiite Islam. Turkey and Qatar are largely Sunni Muslim states, and the rebels are largely drawn from the Sunni majority.
This isn't the first time that Iranian pilgrims have been captured, and it certainly isn't the first time that the rebels have claimed that Iranian military officials were among those captured. It certainly is plausible that the rebels are on the mark with their claims, but there's no way to independently verify the claims.

Friday, August 03, 2012

Assad Preparing For Aleppo Assault as Civil War Rages On

Reports indicate that Bashar al-Assad's forces are preparing for a ground offensive against rebel-held areas of Aleppo. That will most certainly increase the casualties significantly over the already high tallies seen across the country in recent weeks.
Syria on Friday amassed troops in the northern city of Aleppo in preparation for an onslaught on rebel-held areas and the opposition reported a massacre in the central city of Hama.

Opposition activists said more than 62 people, including women and children, were killed in a massacre committed by forces loyal to President Bashar Assad in Hama. The claim by the Local Coordination Committees could not be independently verified.

In Aleppo, Syria's main commercial center, the Syrian army sent more troops and tanks to break a stalemate in fighting with rebels holding out for six days in opposition areas mainly in the east and southwest of the city near the border with Turkey.

"Dozens of trucks loaded with troops and backed by more than 100 tanks are being positioned around Aleppo," Abu Omar al-Halabi, a commander in the rebel Free Syrian Army, told dpa by phone.
The UN is hobbled by a split Security Council - the Russians and Chinese are blocking everything related to Syria, up to and including even weak-worded condemnation of the violence. Kofi Annan admitted as much when he declared his mission to implement a peace deal was a failure and that he was stepping down as envoy to Syria effective at the end of the month.

Assad's looking out for one thing - to remain in power at all costs. That means paying lip service to the diplomats all while crushing those opposed to him. The burden falls on Syrians who can't get out of the way of the violence, or who have declared allegiance to one side or the other.

Meanwhile, the NY Times reports Assad's forces are bedeviled by the fact that they're not prepared to deal with an insurrection where rebel forces (the Free Syrian Army and other unaffiliated groups) are able to mount coordinated attacks and capture some of the same weapons for use against the Syrian army. It's a situation that the Libyan military faced when Mumar Khadafi sought to crush the rebellion-turned-civil war and that the Egyptian military faced when Hosni Mubarak sought to stop the protests against his regime.

However, one shouldn't feel sorry for Assad because his military is having a tough time dealing with the rebel forces. It appears that even with a tactical advantage in the air (from helicopters and jets), it's just enough for Assad's forces to maintain the status quo. The Syrian military wasn't known for having a high state of preparedness to begin with, so equipment that was unreliable to start has only become more so. That's one of the reasons those helicopters that the Russians were refurbishing was so valued by the regime. They needed them to fill in for those that were already flying missions to support Assad's loyalists on the ground.

If he can't resupply and rearm, then the rebels will gain the upper hand and leave Assad with fewer and fewer options for how to retain power. It potentially opens the door for Assad to use chemical or biological weapons as a last ditch effort to crush the opposition though he claims that he wouldn't use it against the Syrian people (even as he calls the fighters arrayed against him foreign terror groups and proxies of the US and/or Israel, Syria, Qatar or others).

Meanwhile, Russia has dispatched more ships and ground forces to their port in Tartus; they are claiming that they are there to protect Russia's personnel and infrastructure at the port.

Rebel forces have again claimed that the regime carried out massacres in Hama, while both sides are blaming the other for a mortar attack against a Palestinian refugee camp that killed nearly 2 dozen civilians.

Thursday, August 02, 2012

Kofi Annan Resigns As Envoy as Syrian Civil War Intensifies

The outcome was all but assured. Bashar al-Assad paid lip service to United Nations Envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, and his plan to end the ongoing violence wracking Syria for more than a year and a half. So Kofi has quit as envoy.

Assad continues to claim that foreign entities and terrorists are to blame for the violence, but it's Annan's security forces and loyalist goon squads who have introduced the violence and then intensified it as opposition groups moved to defend themselves.

The situation has been a civil war for some time now, as rebel forces have gained and held territory, including parts of Syria's two big cities - Aleppo and Damascus.

Annan's plan has been an abysmal failure though it wasn't exactly his fault. UN monitors could only look on as the violence raged around them; they were themselves targeted on more than one occasion. That ultimately led to their withdrawal. Assad never had any intention of stopping the brutal crackdown since he had no intention of ever stepping down or relinquishing power under any circumstances.

Aleppo is an urban battleground, with Assad's loyalists firing heavy weapons into the city and rebel-held strongholds, while the rebel forces have overrun some of Assad's positions and obtained heavy weapons of their own to return fire. Civilians remain caught in the crossfire.
Video footage seen by the Monitor shortly after the showdown bolstered rebel claims: It showed a Syrian armored vehicle with an RPG hole in its side still smoldering, and a number of Syrian soldiers lying dead at their positions on a wide avenue. Later footage showed burnt tanks.

The assault had been stopped, at least on the ground.

But shortly after came the roar of artillery barrages. Mortars, rockets, and tank shells were unleashed on the rebel enclave and did not end, nor even ease up, until well into the night.

Casualties began to pour in to the makeshift field hospital. Civilians said the intense shelling felt like regime revenge for the earlier military setbacks.

Few Syrians here forget the example of the rebel stronghold of Bab al-Amr in Homs – which was destroyed by weeks of artillery bombardment earlier this year, then declared "free" – or the more recent brutal "cleansing" of rebel turf in Damascus.

The bombardment was so intense that the United Nations estimates that in the last two days alone, 200,000 of the city’s 2 million residents have fled.

Artillery shells and rockets fell every few minutes in Salaheddin, sometimes as often as one a minute and sometimes in groups of five, coming in rapid succession. Some landed so close to the field hospital that shrapnel and debris hit the roof or walls.
Meanwhile, President Obama issued a secret finding authorizing covert aid to the Syrian rebels. He's also arranged for more humanitarian aid to those displaced by the Syrian civil war.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Aleppo Besieged As Assad and Rebels Claim Victories

The fighting in and around Aleppo, Syria's commercial hub, continues and the number of refugees is soaring. 200,000 have fled the city as a result of the brutal fighting on the streets and in the buildings of multiple neighborhoods around the city.

Both Assad and rebel forces have claimed victories. Assad's forces have claimed that they've overrun rebel held areas and retaken the city after more than a week's worth of artillery assaults and airstrikes.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group, reported heavy shelling in Salaheddine today, suggesting the district or parts of it are still under rebel control. An officer interviewed by the state-run TV channel said “mercenaries” from other countries, including Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, were helping the rebels in Aleppo.

Troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have been battling rebels who seized several neighborhoods in Aleppo, Syria’s most populous city and its commercial hub, since last week. The army pounded the city with heavy artillery and helicopter gunships, opposition groups say.

Motee al-Bateen, a member of the executive committee of the Syrian National Council, the main opposition group, said he couldn’t confirm that Salaheddine has fallen into army hands.

“How much territory the opposition holds is not important,” he said by telephone from Istanbul today. “What’s important is to engage the troops in cycles of attack-and- retreat to exhaust them.”

Al-Bateen said the army was using mortars, rocket launchers and tanks to shell areas from a distance and avoid engaging rebels in close combat.
Rebels note that despite the artillery and airstrikes, they've continued to hold on to Aleppo. Moreover, they've noted that Assad's forces haven't invaded the city en masse, precisely because they'd be facing an uphill battle in a brutal urban setting.

Rebel forces also announced that they captured a significant military base near Aleppo. They managed to capture the position after heavy fighting, and gained heavy weapons to supplement their own weapons.

Pro-Assad groups have claimed that Assad's forces have assassinated a Saudi official, Bandar bin Sultan, who they claim involved in plotting to eliminate key members of the Syrian defense and intel establishment earlier this month. However, there's no evidence to substantiate those claims, but it does show the animosity between Syria and Saudi Arabia is growing. The Saudis have been working to bring Assad's regime to an end, both by diplomacy and by covert means.

Meanwhile, another Syrian official has defected. At the same time, a Chinese news outlet is reporting that Assad's continuing to claim that he seeks to carry out the terms of the Arab League/Kofi Annan plan to end the violence. It's just so much talk since Assad could have simply brought the violence to an end by reining in his brutal crackdown. He has no intention of giving up power peacefully, and is seeking retribution against those that questioned his regime.

At the same time, concerns are mounting that al Qaeda and other Islamists are taking advantage of the chaos to gain a foothold in Syria.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Aleppo Bracing For Assad's Forces

Syria is in a state of civil war and has been for some time. Rebel forces have captured territories outside of the major cities and provinces of Hama and Homs as Assad's gaze has focused on retaking those areas. It's left outlying provinces to their own devices. They're running things without Assad's government goons in sight:
As the Syrian state recedes, the people in this village and villages around it are filling in the blanks with their own institutions and, for better or for worse, their own ideas about how a country should be run.

The rebels started taking control of these villages and towns a few months back, as the Syrian army focused on holding major cities.

The first thing the rebels do is take over the post office or the police station and set up shop as the local authority.

Each village or town has something different to offer the rebels. In Qurqanya, it's a school that during the summer break can be used as a kind of media center, with a few laptops and an Internet connection.

In the next town over, it's a hospital.

The head doctor says he might treat dozens of injured rebel fighters from all around this region in a single day. Places that treat rebels used to be totally underground — makeshift MASH units set up in people's houses.

In many parts of Syria, it's still like this. But more and more the rebels are coming out into the open and asserting their control.
While the fighting has receded from those areas, it's intensifying in and around Aleppo as Bashar al Assad's forces prepare to overwhelm the rebel forces in the sprawling city with artillery, airstrikes, and an armored assaults.

Civilians caught in the crossfire are attempting to get out of the way, but face hazards at every step of the way with gunfire erupting at every turn.
“We fear the government’s retaliation — may God help us,” said Ahmad, a resident of the southeastern Salaheddiin neighborhood, one of the first areas overrun with insurgents over the weekend. So many poured in from the countryside that they sometimes ended up fighting each other for control of individual streets, residents said.

People streamed out of the neighborhoods where the rebel soldiers claimed control, figuring they would be pounded by government forces, following the same pattern in one Syrian city after another during the course of the 17-month-old uprising. But some men stayed behind to protect their property from looters.

Tanks and troops normally deployed in nearby Idlib province began to lumber eastward toward Aleppo after suhur, the morning meal that comes before sunrise during the monthlong Ramadan holiday, fighters and activists said.

One column of an estimated 23 armored vehicles carrying soldiers and ammunition out of Jebel az-Zawiya, a rebel stronghold in southern Idlib, was attacked by local fighters, according to a local activist in Turkey who said he was in touch with the insurgents. Roughly a third of the vehicles were destroyed but the rest moved on toward Aleppo, he said.
Assad's prospects may be slightly improved on the battlefield, but his diplomatic contacts are getting hammered hard.

Turkey has cut trade ties with Syria in closing its border. At the same time, two more Syrian diplomats have defected:
Turkey sealed its border with Syria to trucks on Wednesday, effectively cutting off a trade relationship once worth almost $3 billion with the embattled nation, as regime forces fought to evict rebels from the country's largest city.

Two more Syrian diplomats, the envoy to Cyprus and her husband, the former ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, have also defected, according to the opposition Syrian National Council, in the latest sign of fraying support for the regime among its own elites. The announcement follows the televised appearance Tuesday night of a defected regime general calling for a new Syria.

Turkish Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan said deteriorating security was behind the closure of a border through which Turkey once exported food and construction materials to the entire Middle East, though the volume of traffic had dropped 87 percent since the Syrian conflict began in March 2011.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Aleppo Under Siege As Assad's Forces Attack From Air and Golan Heights DMZ

Israel is contacting the United Nations over an incursion by more than 500 Syrian soldiers into the DMZ between Israel and Syria in the process of attacking rebel targets near the demarcation line.
Following the incident, in which 500 soldiers and 50 vehicles crossed into the demilitarized zone, Israel filed a formal complaint to the UN secretary general and to the president of the UN's Security Council, warning that the event may have serious ramifications.

Concern in Israel, in light of the situation in Syria, especially over Assad's chemical weapons stockpile and land-to-land missiles, is growing every day. In a meeting on Sunday afternoon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consulted the heads of Israel's security establishment, including Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and other senior cabinet members.

"We are monitoring the events in Syria closely and are prepared for any development to come," Netanyahu said in his opening statement.
At the same time, rebel forces are claiming that Bashar al-Assad's forces have dispersed chemical weapons to airports along Syria's borders as a threat against foreign countries from interfering in the brutal crackdown against the rebels. However, we need to keep in mind distances we're talking about here. The threat is that he's going to disperse and deploy them against foreign targets.

Damascus is 45 miles from the Golan Heights DMZ.

Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are only around 120 miles beyond that.

The distances are so small that the threat is the same regardless of where Assad is putting those weapons if he's going to use them against Israel via aircraft or long range missiles. Artillery delivering such weapons would have a shorter range, but that's something that the Israelis would see via their listening posts on Mt. Hermon. Israel would see something was afoot, though the reaction time would be less the closer to the border.

Dispersing the weapons means that the chances that they could fall into the wrong hands increases (terrorists or those who may have no idea what they're doing) increases. But since Assad is expanding its air campaign against the rebels, it's not beyond the possibility that despite his claims to the contrary, he could be preparing to use them against the rebel forces.

If Assad thought that trying to provoke Israel into engaging in a firefight would help his cause, he's seriously misguided since Syrians would see and respond that he's trying to bluff his way out of his predicament by blaming Israel (something he's done for far too long). And the last thing he wants to do is split his forces between going after the rebel forces and any kind of conflict with Israel and its technological superiority. He would unwittingly be playing right into the hands of rebel forces who lack the capability to neutralize the Syrian air force. If Assad brings Israel into the conflict, it would neutralize his air force, which is one of the few things holding the rebel forces at bay.

Recent reports indicate that Assad's now using fighter jets in addition to helicopter gunships. Until now, Assad's forces have used helicopters and artillery for long range attacks against the rebel forces.

Assad's forces have increasingly relied upon their air force to attack rebel forces, which is also about the only way Assad's loyalists can stay ahead of the rebels, who have managed to carry off spectacular advances in holding territory as well as attacks killing the highest echelon of Assad's security establishment.
Government helicopter gunships attacked Aleppo, the Local Coordination Committees, a network of on-the-ground activists, told NBC News. The Associated Press reported that warplanes circled in the air around the city, while the British Broadcasting Corp., citing one of its reporters near the area, said that fighter jets had bombed eastern parts of Aleppo.
With sequential rebel attacks on the country's two largest cities and a bombing that wiped out some of his top security advisors, President Bashar Assad reshuffled his top security posts, dismissing one general and appointing a national security council chief to replace the one killed in the recent attack.

Syria's rebels, outmanned and outgunned by the regime's professional army, have mounted a surprising pair of offensives over the last 10 days against the country's two major cities — Damascus and Aleppo. Even as the government appears to have snuffed out most of the rebel pockets in the capital, the rebels appear to be fight fiercely in the commercial hub of Aleppo in the north.

The government has instituted tight restrictions on outside news outlets working in Syria, making it difficult to verify many reports from inside the country.

Fighting spreads in Aleppo
The battle in Aleppo has spread from neighborhoods in the northeast and southwest of the city to previously untouched areas like Firdous in the south and Arkoub closer to the center, local activists and the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
This is the fourth day of heavy fighting in Aleppo, which also includes a prison uprising that was brutally put down. There's also evidence that Assad's forces are using Iranian-made UAVs in spotting targets.

Friday, July 20, 2012

Rebels Pushed Back In Damascus As They Gain Ground Elsewhere

Bashar al Assad's Syrian military has managed to push back an offensive by rebel forces in the capital of Damascus. It was not without a heavy toll in civilian casualties, which seems to be the norm in the fighting there.

Artillery attacks and airstrikes from helicopters are causing significant damage across the city, particularly in the area of Midan:
On Thursday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in Britain, said a group of rebel fighters claimed to have routed government soldiers in a section of Midan neighborhood, taking over a piece of one of the city’s oldest neighborhoods. The claim, like most of the reports of fighting and of casualties, could not be independently confirmed.

But on Friday Syrian state media and the Syrian Observatory said government forces, fighting back with a superior military machine pitted against an opposition still working predominantly with small-caliber weapons, had retaken Midan, while the number of dead in fighting across the land on Thursday was reported to have risen above 300. Of the dead, 98 were soldiers, 139 civilians and 65 rebels, rebels said.

The figures updated earlier estimates by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights for the death toll on Thursday, claiming that 155 civilians and 93 government soldiers were killed, including nearly 60 civilians in and around Damascus.

The latest tally was among the highest — if not the highest — claimed in a single day since the revolt began in March 2011. It could not be independently corroborated because of the difficulties and restrictions on independent news gathering in Syria.

Claiming victory in Midan, Syrian state television declared: “Our brave army forces have completely cleaned the area of Midan in Damascus of the remaining mercenary terrorists and have re-established security.” Rebels said they had staged a “tactical withdrawal” from Midan to avert civilian casualties.
Neither side appears to bother with worrying about collateral damage; we're talking about heavy combat in a dense urban setting.

At the same time pitched battles are occurring in Damascus, rebel forces claimed to have captured border crossings on both the Turkish and Iraqi borders. That's a significant development since it would enable the rebel forces to regroup and rearm more freely. The rebels were claiming to have briefly held the Turkish border crossing before withdrawing from the area because of concerns over the Syrian military's capabilities in that area; they did so for propaganda purposes.

Meanwhile, there are conflicting reports that the Russians have been informed that Assad's willing to step down. That would be news to the Syrian media, which is controlled by Assad, that denied the allegations.
Russia's ambassador to France said Friday that he believes Syria's president is ready to step down "in a civilized way." But the Syrian government immediately denied it.

Alexander Orlov said that Bashar Assad's acceptance of an international agreement in June for a transition toward a more democratic regime, and his subsequent step of naming a representative to negotiate the transition, meant that he was prepared to give up leadership.

The country is sliding into even further chaos, with fighting around the capital Damascus intensifying two days after the inner circle of Assad's regime was hit by an attack that killed three top Syrian defense officials.

"Personally ... I think it will be difficult for him to stay in office given everything that's happened," Orlov said in an interview with Radio France Internationale.

Orlov spoke a day after Moscow vetoed a Western-backed U.N. resolution aimed at pressuring President Bashar Assad's government to end the war. Friday was the deadline for the U.N. to renew its 300-member observer mission in Syria, or let the mandate expire.
Russia has been busy propping up the Assad regime all while claiming it wasn't doing so. They have repeatedly blocked any United Nations actions, particularly under Chapter VII that allows the use of military force. Yesterday, they, along with the Chinese vetoed tougher sanctions against the regime. That move clearly indicates an intention to prop up the regime, and that spells bad news for Russia when the regime finally is overthrown. The Syrian people aren't going to forget who was involved in propping up the regime or that the Russians, along with the Chinese and Iranians don't have the well being of the Syrian people in mind when they're busy propping up a murderous tyrant. Russia could well lose one of its last remaining allies/clients in the Middle East if Assad falls.

At the same time, a shipment of Syrian-owned refurbished attack helicopters have been offloaded from a Russian cargo ship back in Russia. These aren't new Syrian helicopters, but were part of a deal between the two countries for Syria to refurbish them and had been a part of a row with the US over arming the Assad regime; it would seem the Russians backed away from precipice.