Drumbeat For Action Against Syria's Assad Grows Louder

The ongoing civil war in Syria has led to more than 100,000 dead, more than 2 million refugees situated in grim camps in Syria, Turkey, Jordan, and the entire region is in turmoil, especially after the latest reports indicating that chemical weapons of some kind were used against civilian populations in a Damascus suburb.

It's the latest in a string of scattered incidents involving chemical weapons in the civil war that have pushed the US, France, and others to warn that they may seek military action against Bashar Assad's regime for their violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Russia, along with China, continues working their stalling tactics at the UN as Assad continues his brutal crackdown against rebel forces, meaning that there's little chance of an immediate military response to the chemical weapons attack that may have killed anywhere from 130 to 1,300 people.

The British are putting forth a UN resolution at the Security Council, but Assad isn't going to stop fighting his enemies on the basis of a UN resolution. Efforts by UN inspectors to figure out what actually happened were hampered by a delay in getting access to the site, coming under sniper fire, and the fact that Assad's forces had laid siege to the area with conventional artillery for days before the inspectors could get on the ground there.

With the drumbeat of war growing louder, and the possibility that airstrikes may commence tomorrow, the Jerusalem Post is warning that the Israeli homefront is not prepared for an unconventional conflict - referring to chemical weapons. There’s also reports indicating that if the UN/NATO/US hit Assad targets in Syria, that Syria would retaliate against Israel. Some Israelis aren’t sure that Assad would or wouldn’t attack.

It doesn’t matter that Israel has Iron Dome, Patriot and other missile defense systems available to it; Syria going after Israel if hit by airstrikes would open up a can of worms not seen since the 1991 Gulf War. Back then, Israel withstood the brunt of dozens of scud launches that slammed into Israel without retaliation, but would Israel do the same once again?

I’m not so sure. There are reasons that Assad wouldn’t want to enlarge the fight to include Israel out of practical reasons - if his military can barely scratch out a stalemate against rebel forces, it would suffer badly in a fight against the IDF. And Israel may well respond not only with airstrikes of its own, but could send in its Sayeret Matkal and other special forces to go after specific targets - missions that it might not have considered unless Israel was directly attacked. That’s not to say that Israel hasn’t gone after Syrian targets of opportunity before - the airstrike against the nuclear facility a few years back shows that they’ll act preemptively and with force if necessary.

But there are also reasons Assad would go after Israel - make a muddled mess and further complicate things for the rebels and the West - since affiliations/backing for various groups arrayed against Assad have different motivations and sometimes run counter to each other.

Still, airstrikes will hurt Assad, but they’ll end up having unpredictable outcomes not only for Israel, but for Lebanon, which is where Syria still exerts influence and where Assad’s proxies in Hizbullah continue to hold sway. Hizbullah is a wildcard in this, and they could again make a mess of Lebanon, to say nothing of Northern Israel.

If there’s a callup of Israeli forces, it may also be out of a concern that Hizbullah may well be planning to take the pressure off Assad by launching attacks against Israel to take media pressure off Assad and put the spotlight again on Israel.

Terrorists Strike Israelis On Vacation In Bulgaria With Multiple Casualties Reported

Israeli Prime Minister blames Iran for the blast in Bulgaria that killed at least three Israelis on vacation there. It follows repeated attempts to attack Israelis in other countries around the world in the past few months. The bombing occurred at at Sarafovo Airport in Burgas, Bulgaria, 400km east of Sofia.

At least 7 are now reported dead, and YNet indicates that it was a suicide bomber.

According to media reports, a suicide bomber boarded one of three buses shuttling Israeli tourists across the terminal at around 5:30 pm and then detonated an explosive vest. Bulgarian media said 44 people were on the vehicle at the time of the explosion. The Foreign Ministry has formed a team of experts that will fly to Burgas and assist local authorities in the investigation. The Israeli Embassy in Sofia has been mobilized and is ready to assist the team, which includes ZAKA disaster recovery officials, in identifying the victims and ensuring that the injured and other Israelis that were unharmed return to Israel as soon as possible.

My thoughts and prayers go out to those affected by this latest attack. The city is on the Black Sea and is a favorite summer destination for Israeli tourists. That's one of the reasons the location was targeted. At the same time, there have been reports that Hizbullah and/or Iran are looking to carry out still more attacks against Israelis and Israeli interests around the world. Bulgaria was among those countries where a threat was noted.

The attack occurred on the 18th anniversary of a deadly attack in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people at a Jewish Community Center. That attack was traced back to Hizbullah and Iran. It wouldn't surprise me that there's a Hizbullah/Iran link to today's attack.

Concerns Mounting Over Possible Balkanization of Syria

Syria remains in the throes of a civil war, and there are reports indicating that Assad may be trying to carve out an Alawite sector of the country, essentially engaging in ethnic cleansing so that the Alawite minority can retain control over some geographical portion of Syria. They point to an increasing trend of sectarian attacks.

I don't think Assad's thinking about retaining just part of Syria. He's looking to crush the rebellion and retain control of all Syrian territory.

A far more worrisome possibility, particularly for Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and Iraq is that Assad falls and the power vacuum results in a jihadi safe haven from which attacks could be launched at all of Syria's neighbors.

Israeli officials believe it's just a matter of time before Assad falls, but they're concerned about the possibility of a failed state on its border and the potential influx of Iranian and Hizbullah influence:

The regime of Bashar Assad in Syria will not overcome the uprising against it, although it might survive for anywhere between another two months and a little more than two years, Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday.

Kochavi said that the Golan Heights region could turn into a theater of anti-Israel operations, similar to the Sinai Peninsula region, due the growing presence of global Jihadists in Syria.

Kochavi showed the committee satellite photographs of Syrian artillery batteries firing indiscriminately into urban populated areas. Kochavi said that the Syrian military is acting in a "brutal" manner, indicating the Syrian military's despair over the fact that it can't find an effective way to suppress the riots.

Kochavi said that the clashes in Syria are worsening on a daily basis, with 500 to 700 people being killed every week, and that the country is experiencing an accelerated process of Iraqization.

The chances of a war between Israel and Syria are low, even as a last resort for Assad, Kochavi said. Assad has moved many of his forces from the Golan region to Damascus because he is not concerned about a conflict with Israel.

Kochavi said that Iran and Hezbollah are preparing for the day after Assad's fall from power.

I've repeatedly noted that Assad has no problem engaging in war crimes, and Israeli officials note that is precisely what Assad is engaging in with indiscriminate shelling of civilians. Assad and his loyalists are engaged in a fight for their survival, and it means eliminating their enemies in the process.

Assad's fight is increasingly hitting closer and closer to home. The fighting isn't confined to the provinces of Hama or Homs; they're in his backyard. The fighting is now in Damascus suburbs.

Violence is continuing to spread across Syria and in the capital Damascus as rebels - now better-equipped and more organised - confront the army and government-backed militia.

The rebel Free Syrian Army said it had launched Operation Damascus Volcano, and has called for an escalation of attacks on regime targets and the blocking of main roads all around the country.

One of the biggest and most organised opposition groups, the Muslim Brotherhood, has called on all Syrians to join what it called a decisive battle.

Witnesses say the government's military deployment in Damascus is the biggest since protests against President Bashar al-Assad's rule began in March last year.

There have also been video showing roads being blocked in and around Damascus as well as firebombing of vehicles ostensibly occupied by regime loyalists. The increased disruptions of life in Damascus is starting to take a toll there, but that only adds to the overall uptick in number of refugees flowing into neighboring Turkey and the numbers are increasing.

Syria's Assad Continues Crackdown as Violence Escalates Even Further

Despite reports that Bashar al-Assad is allowing observers into the country from the Arab League to curb the ongoing crackdown against protesters, the violence has been ratcheted up significantly over the past week as reports of army desertions accelerate.

Today, reports of a massive explosion in Damascus should give everyone pause over any claim that the Arab League will somehow reduce the violence.



The explosion targeted security and intelligence headquarters buildings, and more than 30 people were reported killed:

More than 30 were killed and 100 wounded in bomb attacks targeting security and intelligence buildings in Damascus on Friday, the Syrian government said.

Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal Mekdad announced the death toll while accompanying an advance team of Arab League observers to the scene of the blasts, which state TV says targeted security and intelligence headquarters and appeared to have been carried out by al-Qaida.

Mekdad said the blasts bolster the Syrian government's claims that the turmoil shaking the country since March was the work of terrorists and armed gangs. "We said it from the beginning," he added.
The blasts were the first such attack in the Syrian capital since the start of the uprising against President Bashar Assad in March and came a day after the Arab League observers arrived in the country.

Assad has been claiming that he's going after terrorists and that he hasn't been targeting civilians. He'll likely point to today's explosion as proof that he's been right all along, and he'll bolster that by claiming that thousands of his security forces have been killed. It's one of the reasons, his regime was quick to post news and video of the aftermath of the attacks for everyone to see. It's so that he can justify further bloody crackdowns against the opposition protesters throughout the country that have suffered horribly to date.

That would just ignore all the facts on the ground - thousands of civilians killed, including women and children by the regime's security forces. It is the ongoing orders to go after civilians that have led Syrian soldiers to desert their posts and take up arms against the regime. Loyalists have been fighting with these deserter groups, which is why the death toll has risen sharply in the past two weeks. If he throws the number of deserters killed in with his own troop figures, you might begin to get an idea of the death toll, but with UN and human rights groups noting a toll at least double that of what Assad is claiming, the ongoing violence has taken quite a toll on the civilian population, particularly in places like Homs and Hama, although there are increasing signs that the crackdown has spread to other parts of the country, including in and around Damascus itself.

Perhaps even more ominously, Assad's crackdown in Syria is spilling over into Lebanon, where Assad loyalists, including Hizbullah terrorists, are only too happy to oblige in cracking down against anyone speaking out against the Assad regime.

The target appears to have been a Syrian relative of the dominant local tribe, the Qarqouz, who had taken refuge in the village, which lies just a few miles from the Syrian border. With close families ties on both sides of the line, as well as a central government presence that doesn't even live up to the designation of "weak," the tribes make little distinction between Syria and Lebanon, and many make their livings plying that most cliché of all Beqaa trades: cross-border smuggling.

Whether the wanted man is a dissident Syrian remains unclear -- the family certainly denies any such thing. Nevertheless, the raid by Hezbollah's internal security apparatus follows a pattern of harassment, kidnapping, and cross-border rendition of Syrian anti-regime activists by Syria's many loyalists in Lebanon, which also include rogue police units, pro-Syria political movements, and even Kurdish separatists. As President Bashar al-Assad looks to squelch an astonishingly persistent nine-month revolt, Lebanon is fast becoming another battleground between supporters and opponents of his rule.

Hizbullah's Money Laundering Operations Include Beirut Bank, Drug Trade

The Islamic terror group Hizbullah, which gets support from Syria and Iran and operates with impunity through much of Lebanon has the means to sustain itself with the drug trade and money laundering courtesy of a Beirut bank.

Now, in the wake of the bank’s exposure and arranged sale, its ledgers have been opened to reveal deeper secrets: a glimpse at the clandestine methods that Hezbollah — a terrorist organization in American eyes that has evolved into Lebanon’s pre-eminent military and political power — uses to finance its operations. The books offer evidence of an intricate global money-laundering apparatus that, with the bank as its hub, appeared to let Hezbollah move huge sums of money into the legitimate financial system, despite sanctions aimed at cutting off its economic lifeblood.

At the same time, the investigation that led the United States to the bank, the Lebanese Canadian Bank, provides new insights into the murky sources of Hezbollah’s money. While law enforcement agencies around the world have long believed that Hezbollah is a passive beneficiary of contributions from loyalists abroad involved in drug trafficking and a grab bag of other criminal enterprises, intelligence from several countries points to the direct involvement of high-level Hezbollah officials in the South American cocaine trade.

One agent involved in the investigation compared Hezbollah to the Mafia, saying, “They operate like the Gambinos on steroids.”

On Tuesday, federal prosecutors in Virginia announced the indictment of the man at the center of the Lebanese Canadian Bank case, charging that he had trafficked drugs and laundered money not only for Colombian cartels, but also for the murderous Mexican gang Los Zetas.

The revelations about Hezbollah and the Lebanese Canadian Bank reflect the changing political and military dynamics of Lebanon and the Middle East. American intelligence analysts believe that for years Hezbollah received as much as $200 million annually from its primary patron, Iran, along with additional aid from Syria. But that support has diminished, the analysts say, as Iran’s economy buckles under international sanctions over its nuclear program and Syria’s government battles rising popular unrest.

Yet, if anything, Hezbollah’s financial needs have grown alongside its increasing legitimacy here, as it seeks to rebuild after its 2006 war with Israel and expand its portfolio of political and social service activities. The result, analysts believe, has been a deeper reliance on criminal enterprises — especially the South American cocaine trade — and on a mechanism to move its ill-gotten cash around the world.

“The ability of terror groups like Hezbollah to tap into the worldwide criminal funding streams is the new post-9/11 challenge,” said Derek Maltz, the Drug Enforcement Administration official who oversaw the agency’s investigation into the Lebanese Canadian Bank.

In that inquiry, American Treasury officials said senior bank managers had assisted a handful of account holders in running a scheme to wash drug money by mixing it with the proceeds of used cars bought in the United States and sold in Africa. A cut of the profits, officials said, went to Hezbollah, a link the organization disputes.

Despite efforts to crack down and track such money laundering and trafficking operations, Hizbullah has thrived and expanded its drug and money laundering business. It is less dependent on Iran than in previous years, and that makes the group even more dangerous. While it still relies on Syria and Iran for arms shipments, the ability to raise money through its own channels allows it to expand its tentacles into other areas of Lebanese politics and it remains an existential threat to Israel.

The money laundering allows Hizbullah to make significant land purchases in Lebanon that it would not be otherwise capable of doing. Much of those land purchases are in militarily strategic areas and can fortify Hizbullah's position within the fragmented Lebanese society. That further destabilizes the Lebanese political situation, which remains in flux.

Hizbullah operates with impunity in Southern Lebanon, despite UN SCR 1701 that calls for all militia groups to be disarmed. Neither UNIFIL nor the Lebanese military has the ability to disarm the terror group, and Hizbullah forced itself into the Lebanese government and has therefore thwarted further efforts to stop the group's ongoing militarization in Southern Lebanon.

Opposition Renews Protests In Syria; 13 Killed By Assad's Goons

In the wake of the death of Libyan despot Mumar Khadafi, Syrians have renewed calls for the removal of Bashar al Assad. Assad's security forces would not tolerate protests, and have once again murdered the protesters. 13 more people were added to the butcher's bill.

Homs, the city of one million has been scene of extensive military operations to suppress regular protests and a nascent armed insurgency that has emerged after a relentless crackdown on persistent demonstrations calling for more political freedoms.

"Gaddafi is finished. It is your turn now Bashar!" shouted demonstrators in the town of Maaret al-Numaan in the northwestern province of Idlib, according to one witness.

"Prepare yourself Assad!" chanted protesters in the town of Tayyana in the tribal province of Deir al-Zor, on the border with Iraq's Sunni Muslim heartland.

Assad, an ophthalmologist who inherited power from his late father in 2000, strengthened ties with Gaddafi months before the Arab Spring wave of popular unrest against repressive ruling elites erupted in Tunisia in December.

The two countries struck a series of cooperation deals and Assad later allowing a Syrian-based satellite station to broadcast messages from Gaddafi while he was on the run. He was killed in unclear circumstances after his capture on Thursday.

In the town of Houla northwest of Homs, a crowd of several thousands held shoulders and waved old Syrian flags dating to before Assad's Baath party took power in a coup 48 years ago.

"Doctor, you are next!" read banners carried by the villagers, according to live video footage.

Demonstrations also broke out in Homs, the provincial capital 140 km (85 miles) north of Damascus, where three members of same family were also shot dead at an army road block in Bab Sbaa district on their way to prayers, local activists said.

With the NATO operations winding down in Libya in support of the Libyan Transitional Council efforts to wrest control of the country from Khadafi and his loyalists, they may now be more attuned to the plight of the Syrian opposition. The Syrian opposition has grown more cohesive and formed an actual council akin to the Libyan effort. That is key to generating support among international diplomats and leveraging defectors among the Syrian elites to encourage NATO to consider action.

There are key differences though. For starters, Assad has largely kept his attacks against protesters to ground operations and he has significant support from terror groups like Hizbullah and Hamas, both of which have major operations and key leaders encamped in Damascus. More importantly, Assad has the support of Iran, which backs his regime and is likely to counter any Western efforts in a much more direct manner.

So, for now, the Syrian opposition has an uphill battle to counter Assad's built-in advantages.

Naming Names in Rafik Hariri Tribunal

The UN Tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has named names. Not surprisingly, two of the four were senior members of Hizbullah. The Guardian notes that all four were members of Hizbullah.

The Islamic terror group, with ties to both Damascus and Tehran, denounced the tribunal once again as a pawn of the US and Israel.

The four men named are: Mustafa Badreddine, Salim al-Ayyash, Hassan Issa and Asad Sabra.

Badreddine is Hezbollah's chief operations officer, according to the Daily Star, an English-language newspaper based in Beirut. He replaced his former cousin and brother-in-law Imad Mugniyeh in that position after Mugniyeh was assassinated in Syria in 2008, the newspaper reported.

The indictment alleges Badreddine masterminded and supervised the plot to kill Hariri, while Ayyash led the cell that actually carried out the operation, the Star wrote.

Expect Syria and Iran to make a stink over the handing down of the indictment and how this is part of some plot by the US and Israel - all while ignoring that Syria has long used Hizbullah to pursue its interests in Lebanese politics.

Syria considers Lebanon to be its personal playground and within its sphere of influence; it was not above using force and intimidation to get its way. Likewise, Hizbullah has no problems using violence to pursue its own agenda and is now in a position of power because it still remains armed to the teeth despite the UN SCR 1701 that requires all militias operating in Lebanon to be disarmed.

Another Bloody Day In Syria

At least 19 people were killed in the latest crackdown against Bashar al-Assad's opponents. While the regime continues holding on to power despite widespread protests there is some indication that Assad is gaining the upper hand. I'm not buying into that - the fact that the protests are spreading beyond the original locations and that Assad has been forced into bringing out the armored divisions all across the country suggests that his regime is fighting for its very existence here.



The protesters keep taking to the streets despite the mortal peril they're putting themselves in. The number of people being detained keeps rising, as does the death toll.

For its part, the Russians are continuing to prop up the Assad regime by warning against military action by the West to stop Assad's bloody crackdown. That follows a similar call from the Chinese earlier in the week.

At the same time, there's movement on the UN probe in to the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and that Syrian officials have been fingered:

According to Lebanese press reports, prosecutor Daniel Bellemare has obtained new information indicating the involvement of Syrian senior officials in the 2005 assassination. The material was included in the amended indictment draft which was filed last week.

The report indicated that the information was provided by Syrian expats in Hague who claimed they witnessed the event.

Meanwhile, the as-Safir newspaper quoted a French source who said the UN prosecutor discussed cooperation with French security authorities with Paris officials. According to the report, the prosecutor promised to track down the Syrian organizers of the Hariri assassination.

Twenty-two other people were killed in the 2005 attack which ignited a protest wave which led to Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon.

At the time, Syria was marked as the prime suspect for the hit as Hariri was known as fiercely critical of its involvement in Lebanon. Later, fingers were pointed at a Syrian ally – Hezbollah.

This is yet another complication for the Assad regime, which has long backed not only Hizbullah and meddling in Lebanon, but Hamas as well. Assad's problems are multiplying the pressure on his regime but he's resorted to the only solution his regime (and that of his father has known) - violently cracking down against all those opposed to his regime.

Syrian Crackdown Against Opposition Continues

Syria's harsh crackdown has led to increased calls for sanctions, but Assad's regime isn't stopping its use of tanks and an iron fist to crush its opponents:



Despite Assad continuing to hold on to power, media outlets are beginning to contemplate what Syria and the region might look like after Assad is gone. A Reuters analysis borders on the ludicrous, especially when it relates to Hizbullah's concerns about life in Syria without Assad. Nowhere does it indicate that Hizbullah could actually benefit from the regime change by assuming power in the ensuing power vacuum. Iran most certainly would use its proxy to Iran's advantage, and it would give Hizbullah freer reign to go after Israel from both Lebanon and Syria. Iran would attempt to capitalize and choose a successor to Assad that fits its agenda and thwarts Sunni countries like Saudi Arabia or Egypt from bringing about a regime more favorable to their worldview (political and religious).

The most likely successor to Assad will come out of the military - as is usually the case when regimes are brought down - and will use his military connections to assume the leadership.

Israel is clearly concerned about the situation in Syria although the security situation wont immediately change regardless who is in power. If a more moderate government assumes power after Assad, it could lead to a thawing of the decades long struggle over handing over the Golan but much more likely is a continuation of the status quo. Hizbullah coming to power in Damascus would be a much more dangerous outcome, but one that Israel would be more prepared to deal with.

For the Lebanese, the end of the Assad regime could mean the end of Syrian meddling in Lebanese political affairs, which has included assassinations and invasion. To suggest that unrest in Syria could spill over into Lebanon is not unwarranted, but it would pose special challenges for the likes of Hizbullah, who receives backing from Iran and Syria. It would also pose a challenge for the Alawite populations in both countries, since they are a minority among Muslims. Sectarian differences have turned into open bloodshed several times before in Lebanon, and fighting could once again erupt over Assad's demise.

UPDATE:
Assad is sending more tanks into the city of Deraa (Daraa) where the opposition has demonstrated almost constantly for several weeks and where fighting has been most intense:



House to house fighting has also been reported north of Damascus as the regime attempts to flush out opposition groups and eliminate the existential threat to the ongoing regime. Brutal crackdowns are the norm in Syria, and Bashar is simply following the dictum of his father - to use brutal power to neutralize domestic enemies all while claiming that these opposition groups are merely front groups for the US or Israel.

Perhaps most important is the reporting that dissension within the military may be occurring:

Yet even as the relentless crackdown moved forward, signs continued to emerge of disagreements and clashes between the regime and those who once supported it without question.

Some 30 members of the ruling Ba'ath party from Banias announced their resignation in a letter denouncing what they describe as live firing on people and pervasive home raids in their city, according to an emailed copy of the letter.

"Considering the breakdown of values and emblems that we were instilled with by the party and which were destroyed at the hand of the security forces…we announce our withdrawal from the party without regret," the letter said.

The Ba'ath Party has been a pillar of the regime for decades and seen almost no internal dissent. Meanwhile reports of clashes within army units and significant troop casualties.

Activists said they have also received some reports, which were impossible to confirm, of clashes between the regular military and elite fighting divisions controlled by Maher al Assad, the president's brother.

It remained unclear whether the reports of army casualties indicated actual fighting between the forces or disputes between elite troops and regular soldiers who refused to fire on protesters.

If this is occurring, then pressure on the regime is no doubt going to increase and we might see Assad attempt to purge the military before he becomes the target of a coup.

Hamas Claims Responsibility For Bus Attack as Israel Remains Under Fire

Israel is holding Hamas responsible for the attack on a bus in Israel using an anti-tank missile that critically injured a 16-year old and wounded the driver. Of course, one of Hamas' military groups claimed responsibility after issuing denials earlier in the day - probably because the group couldn't make up its mind on how to play the propaganda angle. Ultimately, it decided that the terror group carried out the attack in response for Israel carrying out strikes that killed several of its terror minions.

After the attack Thursday, and the firing of numerous mortars into Israel, the Israel Defense Forces "targeted nine terror-activity sites in the Gaza Strip," the IDF said in a news release. A military spokeswoman said later that IDF aircraft targeted three smuggling tunnels in southern Gaza in addition to the nine targets mentioned earlier.

The additional strikes hit shortly after a cease-fire, negotiated among Hamas and other Palestinian factions, was scheduled to take effect, according to Hamas' Interior Ministry.

Hamas said five people were killed and 45 were wounded in the earlier IDF strikes. One of the dead was Saleh Tarbin, a field commander for Hamas, the group said.

The school bus was traveling in southern Israel near the Gaza border when it was hit by a type of anti-tank missile known as a Kornet, said Israeli military spokesman Capt. Barak Raz. The Kornet is a Russian-made anti-tank guided missile system that is thought to have a maximum range of 5 1/2 kilometers (3 1/2 miles).

Of course, this once again highlights Israel's inalienable right to protect itself from terror attacks carried out by the group whose ultimate intention is to destroy Israel and supplant Israel with an Palestinian state on its ashes. Hamas is using every opportunity at its disposal to regroup and rearm following Operation Cast Lead, and its terror minions are itching at the opportunity to carry out murder and mayhem among Israelis.

And that bus attack could have been even worse - dozens of other students were dropped off by the driver just a few minutes earlier. Had those children been on board when the missile struck, I have no doubt that Prime Minister Netenyahu would have not only authorized massive airstrikes against Hamas, but launched a new operation to rival that of Cast Lead in scope - but with the intention of driving Hamas from power once and for all. Hamas got lucky that the attack was not more serious, and Israelis can breath a sigh of relief as well that the casualties weren't worse.

It's also why no one should buy the latest claim that Hamas has brokered a ceasefire with other terror groups in Gaza. It is purely propaganda with which it can claim Israel somehow violated the ceasefire when it defends itself against further terror actions carried out by Hamas, Islamic Jihad or any number of splinter groups operating in Gaza under Hamas' watchful eye.

Moreover, any such ceasefire (and there have been plenty of them since Cast Lead ended) isn't worth the paper its written on and still more kassam and mortar barrages have slammed into Israel, damaging farms in the area.

The terrorists are once again using human shields by firing the mortars and kassams from within heavily populated areas - to the point that Israel can't respond without causing civilian casualties. It's been an ongoing problem for Israel because Hamas and the other terror groups have no interest in preserving Palestinian lives - any death is in furtherance of their ultimate goal of destroying Israel. Civilian casualties are propaganda for Hamas, and all those deaths should rightfully be laid at the feet of the terror groups because but for the terrorists carrying out the incessant attacks Israel would not be forced to defend itself militarily to protect its own citizens.

These terror groups operate with essentially a triangle offense strategy against Israel. One can claim to be honoring a ceasefire and that they wont carry out attacks if Israel stops firing, but splinter cells or groups not included in the ceasefire carry out attacks forcing Israel to respond. Once Israel responds, those other terror groups get to resume their war against Israel's existence - claiming that Israel violated a ceasefire that didn't mean anything to begin with.

Meanwhile, Israel is warily watching Hizbullah in the north, as leaked Wikileaks documents show that Hizbullah may be capable of firing 100 rockets a day deep into Israeli territory.

UPDATE:
Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh is unrepentant and unmoved. He's towing the usual line about Israel and how Palestinians cannot turn away from Israel's aggression - even though it was Hamas' own terrorism and aggression that resulted in Israel taking steps to defend itself.

Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh said Friday that "Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip will not be able to break the will of the Palestinian people."

He also called for the cessation of IDF attacks in Gaza.

38 mortars and kassams have been fired at Israel today. Israel has continued airstrikes and other actions to eliminate those firing on Israel, and there have been Palestinian casualties reported. Many are terrorists but those civilians injured or killed lie at the feet of Hamas because but for the terrorist group's ongoing actions - Israel would not have carried out these defensive measures to eliminate the terrorists firing on Israel.

Announcement Forthcoming From Syria's Bashar al- Assad As Crackdown Continues

Bashar Assad's thugs are busy cracking down against opposition protests who have taken to the streets in various cities around Syria, and they're using the methods honed by Assad's father. But Hafez Assad didn't have to rely on outside assistance to engage in the crackdown.

Bashar has apparently obtained the support of Hizbullah and Iran in cracking down. There are reports that the thugs cracking skulls in the protests are speaking Farsi, which is an indication that Iran is wielding expanded power in Syria and assisting in propping up the Assad regime. Bashar's father had no such issues - he was able to use the army to crush opposition in Hama (giving rise to the Hama Rules for dealing with opposition).

That isn't to say that the Syrians aren't deploying the army to deal with the protests; they are. It would appear that Assad considers this a most serious threat and isn't beyond getting help from Iran and Hizbullah to quell the protests.

At the same time, the Assad regime is preparing to make some kind of a statement in the next 48 hours, but I doubt it would be the kind of announcement that opposition groups are hoping for. It would likely be an ultimatum for them to cease and desist all while giving lip service to any kind of political or social liberalization/changes that opposition groups are demanding.

The Syrians are also attempting to keep the lid on the reporting of protests - trying to keep events from spiraling out of control. To that end, they're again harassing journalists, stripped the press accreditation of a third reporter. All three are from Reuters.

Two journalists from the Reuters news agency are missing and two U.S. citizens have been detained during the unprecedented nationwide mass protests that have posed the greatest challenge to President Bashar Assad since he came to power 11 years ago, media reports say.

Producer Ayat Basma and cameraman Ezzat Baltaji, both Lebanese nationals based in Beirut, disappeared Saturday night as they were expected to be making their way back to Lebanon, according to Reuters.

The last contact Reuters had with the duo was about 5:30 p.m. Saturday when Baltaji sent a text message to a colleague in Beirut saying, "We will leave now."

Since then, the journalists have been unreachable on their phones.

Syrian state TV has blamed recent protests and unrest on foreigners, among others.

For the moment, the US is not planning on any no-fly zones or other military actions with respect to Syria.

One group that is paying close attention to the ongoing situation in Syria are the Druze, who are frequently caught in the middle of the conflicts and are waiting to see which way the wind blows.

Riots Continue In Egypt, Lebanon and Tunisia As Crackdown Commences

Video from Egypt shows demonstrators that have been bloodied and riot troops firing off tear gas while water cannons spray the protesters to little effect.



Up to 200 demonstrators have been arrested in Egypt, and Twitter has apparently been shut down by the Egyptian government to quell the protests.

"The Egyptian government has an important opportunity to be responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people and pursue political, economic and social reforms that can improve their lives and help Egypt prosper," a White House statement said.

Events in the region were a reminder that "all people yearn for certain things," such as free speech, a say in government and the rule of law, the White House added.

Twitter, the Internet messaging service that has been one of the main methods used by demonstrators to organize, said it had been blocked in Egypt. In a message, the company wrote: "We believe that the open exchange of info & views benefits societies & helps govts better connect w/ their people."

Thousands of demonstrators had earlier said they planned to stay out in Tahrir square until the government fell. Some protesters and police shared food and chatted on Tuesday evening after a day of protests that closed many Cairo roads to traffic.

Demonstrators tore up pictures of the president and his son, Gamal, who many Egyptians say is being groomed for office. Both Gamal and his father deny any such plan.

'Day of wrath'
"Tomorrow, don't go to work. Don't go to college. We will all go down to the streets and stand hand in hand for you our Egypt. We will be millions," wrote one activist on a group on Facebook, which has been a key tool mobilizing demonstrators.

Tuesday was a national holiday and ministries were closed. A government source said ministers had been told to ensure staff returned to work on Wednesday and did not join protests.

Tahrir Square in Cairo is the epicenter for the protests, and photos continue to show significant crowds despite riot police efforts to disperse the crowds. In the end, the riot police brought out the rubber bullets, tear gas, and water cannons, and several people were killed, including one police officer:

After hours of struggling to disperse the thousands of defiant protesters who had congregated in Tahrir Square since midday, security forces resorted to firing rubber bullets, tear gas canisters and water cannons just after midnight.

According to the Front to Defend Egypt Protestors yesterday’s protests accross the country left “three dead in Suez, tens injured and hundreds arrested.” They also said that injured protesters who sought medical attention in the hospital were questioned. Another protester from Suez died from his injuries Wednesday morning.

Yesterday Egypt witnessed nationwide protests with the largest taking place in Tahrir (Liberation) Square in the centre of the city where thousands of protesters gathered from around 3:00 pm. Most of those who congregated in Tahrir Square had marched there from other protests in the city taking place in Shubra, Dokki, Imbaba and Mohandeseen.

Nearly half of Egyptians live under the poverty line, which is defined as $2 a day.

The situation in Lebanon is not much better, as Hizbullah has all but completed its takeover of the government to the detriment of all Lebanese. The terror group's takeover is directly related to thwarting efforts to investigate and name the assassins involved in the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and Hizbullah's thugs were expected to take top billing alongside Syrian and possibly Iranian officials. It's doing just enough to stake its claim to power, but not enough to get other countries to lift an eyebrow.

The protests and riots have ebbed for the moment, but don't expect that situation to last, particularly in coming weeks as the Hariri tribunal works towards announcing the indictments.

UPDATE:
Tunisia is now seeking Interpol's assistance in arresting and extraditing ousted thug Ben Ali to face charges of looting the country's treasury. He's hunkered down in Saudi Arabia, so it isn't clear whether Tunisia's pleas will be heeded:

Tunisia has asked Interpol to help arrest ousted president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and his family so they can be tried for theft and currency offences, the justice minister said on Wednesday.

The French-based international police organization has been asked to bring to justice Ben Ali, his wife Leila Trabelsi and other family members who have fled the country, Lazhar Karoui Chebbi told a news conference.

Ben Ali went to Saudi Arabia this month after weeks of violent protests against poverty, repression and corruption. He amassed vast riches during his 23 years in power, with his family controlling many of Tunisia's biggest companies.

Meanwhile, Algeria is boosting its food imports to head off the possibility of riots that led to Ben Ali's exit and ongoing problems in Egypt. Food riots formed the underlying basis of the Tunisian uprising against Ben Ali, so this shouldn't be an unexpected move. Whether it works remains to be seen.

The Circle Is Now Complete: Hizbullah Takes Over Lebanon

The Islamic terror group Hizbullah has now completed its longstanding goal of taking over Lebanon on behalf of its terror masters in Syria and Iran. It has established a front seat position for its ongoing jihad against Israel and there isn't much that the Lebanese people, or anyone else for that matter, can do about it.

The world watched with indifference as Hizbullah first undermined and disrupted the government of Saad Hariri on the eve of indictments being handed down in the assassination of Rafik Hariri that was likely to pin the blame for the assassinations on Hizbullah, Syrian, and even Iranian officials.

Now, the world wakes up to a new reality in Lebanon. Hizbullah is hand picking the Prime Minister and the Druze are going along with this because it is in their interest to avoid a fight with the far stronger militarily-speaking Hizbullah, which has operated with impunity despite UNIFIL requirements for disarmament under UN SCR 1701.

Expect that the new Lebanese government calls for the withdrawal of UNIFIL and pursuit of claims that Israel still occupied Lebanon, despite UN reports noting that Israel has fully withdrawn from Lebanon.

Saad Hariri is calling this a coup d'etat, and he's not far off the mark. Hizbullah played the game better than anyone else and managed to overthrow the government and institute its own officials without so much as a fired shot (until today's rioting in response to the Hizbullah takeover), although protests have broken out in Sunni-dominated enclaves because of the Hizbullah-dominated process that put Shi'ites in charge:

After days of political wrangling, the candidate chosen by Hezbollah, Najib Miqati, a billionaire and former prime minister, won 68 seats in Lebanon’s 128-member parliament, enough to name the next government in a country as divided as it is diverse. His elevation was a clear victory for Hezbollah, which has ruled out Mr. Hariri’s return to power, and it marked the culmination of what was already accepted as a fact of life here: that Hezbollah is the country’s pre-eminent military and political force.

“What has happened is virtually a coup d’etat, a political coup d’etat,” Mr. Hariri said in an interview at his home near the seat of government that he and his team left only days before. “Me and my allies, we will represent the opposition.”

He blamed former allies and said he was filled with “lots of feelings of betrayal.”

The prospect of Mr. Hariri in the opposition could ensure prolonged instability in a country still haunted the legacy of its 15-year civil war, which ended in 1990.

Mr. Hariri represents Lebanon’s Sunni Muslim community in a system that rigidly divides power among its sects. A government without his participation would assuredly be viewed as Shiite-dominated and beholden to Hezbollah. That very prospect unleashed the protests Tuesday in Beirut, Tripoli and other predominantly Sunni towns.

“It is a day of anger against the interference of Iran and Syria,” Mohammed Kabbar, a lawmaker from Tripoli, told protesters who went on to burn a van belonging to Al-Jazeera, an Arab satellite channel thought to be sympathetic to Hezbollah.

Hizbullah's choice Mikati is an unusual one. He's a former Prime Minister, who presided over a caretaker government following Rafik Hariri's assassination, and was likely chosen by Hizbullah as a means to placate the Sunni population and rubber stamp their takeover. He's seen as pro-Syrian, which is another sign that Mikati may not have Lebanon's best interests in mind - particularly when Hizbullah's top priority right now is to undermine, destabilize, and thwart the tribunal looking into Hariri's assassination by any means necessary.

Politicians allied to Hezbollah have said the first priority of a government they form would be to cut links with the tribunal, which is expected to accuse Hezbollah members of involvement in the 2005 killing. Hezbollah denies any role.

The demonstrators in Tripoli called for Mikati, a telecoms tycoon who comes from the northern port city, to withdraw his nomination and said the investigation in Rafik Hariri's killing could not be blocked.

Lebanon deserves justice for the assassination of Hariri, and Hizbullah is doing whatever it can to block the culprits from being brought to justice.

Hizbullah's growing and dominating effect on the Lebanese government may lead the US to cease providing foreign aid and assistance, and will require the Obama Administration to tip-toe around the issue of Hizbullah's terrorist infrastructure and involvement in attacks on the US and its strategic interests in the region.

Saudis Give Up On Lebanese Mediation Efforts As Hizbullah Struts Its Stuff

The Saudis have been trying to mediate the difficult political situation in Lebanon following Hizbullah's withdrawal from the government. They've given up on the mediation efforts and the hope is that Qatar and Turkey will pick up where the Saudis left off.

Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia's minister of foreign affairs, said Wednesday that his country had abandoned mediation talks to resolve Lebanon's political crisis that caused the government's collapse last week.

Al-Faisal made the comments in an interview with state-run Saudi TV in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt where he was attending an Arab economic summit to discuss economic challenges facing Arab nations. He also described the political situation in Lebanon as "dangerous."

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar Assad have been personally involved in an attempt to resolve Lebanon's political crisis, the Saudi foreign minister said.

But when no agreement was near the Saudi king "lifted his hands and kept away from the negotiations," al-Faisal said.

Meanwhile, Qatari and Turkish foreign ministers arrived in Lebanon Tuesday in an apparent attempt to pick up where Saudi and Syrian efforts left off.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabor Al Thani met with President Michel Suleiman, and caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri among other leading political figures, state-run Lebanese news agency (NNA) reported Tuesday.

Hizbullah withdrew from the government ahead of a report that was likely to name members of the terror group along with Syrian and Iranian officials in the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The tribunal investigating the assassination may call on Interpol to assist with the arrests of those that are eventually indicted.

While the diplomats are busy doing their work, Hizbullah is not so quietly or subtly laying the groundwork for their own takeover.

Hizbullah staged a quiet show of force Tuesday that rattled nerves, hours before senior Qatari and Turkish officials began talks in Beirut in an attempt to contain political tension over a U.N.-backed tribunal probing the 2005 killing of statesman Rafik Hariri.

Hizbullah’s actions came hours before Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Bin Jaber al-Thani and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu began a series of talks with Lebanon’s political leaders aimed at preventing a slide toward sectarian strife.

As The Daily Star went to press early Wednesday, Sheikh Hamad and Davutoglu were in talks with Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. The two officials will spend the night in the capital to hold further talks with other political leaders Wednesday.

Hizbullah is the reason that the Lebanese government is in the position it is in, and its terror outfit is likely among those behind the assassination of Hariri, but should that become official the terror group would lose support from the Lebanese people as the group has long claimed to be a resistance group to Israel (even though Israel has not occupied Lebanon since 2005 and Hizbullah caused a devastating war after its terrorists invaded Israel and killed several soldiers and kidnapped two others (Regev and Goldwasser), leading to a brief, but devastating war for large parts of Southern Lebanon where Hizbullah openly operates in defiance of UNIFIL and SCR 1701).

Hizbullah Defends The Indefensible

The terror group Hizbullah attempts to defend the indefensible actions it has taken in the past week. The terror group, which is a proxy army for Iran and Syria, is expected to be implicated in the assassination of Rafik Hariri by a United Nations investigation report to be issued tomorrow along with Syria's President Bashar Assad and Iranian officials.

The crisis is the climax of long-simmering tensions over the U.N. tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of Hariri's father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The court is expected to indict members of Hezbollah, which could re-ignite hostilities between Lebanon's rival Shiite and Sunni Muslims. Rafik Hariri was a Sunni.

Hezbollah is Lebanon's most powerful military force, with an arsenal that far outweighs that of the national army.

Saad Hariri had refused Hezbollah's demands to cease cooperation with the court, prompting Wednesday's walkout.

Nasrallah's speech was seen as important sign of his movement's mindset at a time when many fear the country's political tension could descend into civil strife. His demeanor was calm and he emphasized that Hezbollah will work for change through democratic means.

The U.S. has denounced Hezbollah's walkout as a transparent effort to subvert justice.

"The tribunal is an independent, international judicial process whose work is not subject to political influence, either from inside Lebanon or from outside," U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly said Sunday after meeting with Hariri. "The efforts by the Hezbollah-led coalition to collapse the Lebanese government only demonstrate their own fear and determination to undermine Lebanon's sovereignty and independence."

The Times report notes that Hizbullah's military capability exceeds that of the Lebanese military but doesn't note that the terror group should have been disarmed by the UN and the same Lebanese military as part of UN SCR 1701.

The terror group continues operating with impunity and it is increasingly throwing its weight around Lebanon to the detriment of the Lebanese people. It brought down Prime Minister Saad Hariri's (Rafik's son's) government when it saw the writing on the wall with the impending UN report implicating top Hizbullah, Syrian, and Iranian officials. Since it, and its terror masters in Damascus and Tehran, couldn't tolerate such revelations, it has attempted to subvert the process by bringing down the government amid claims that the report is the work of the US and Israel.

Hizbullah's claims aren't justified by the facts or any evidence. Unfounded claims and threats are the currency that Hizbullah is dealing in. It hopes that enough people throughout the Middle East buy into the nonsense that the US and Israel were behind the assassination of Rafik Hariri.

No Wonder Hizbullah Brought Down Lebanese Government

Reports coming out of Lebanon indicate that the UN special tribunal investigating the assassination of Rafik Hariri was set to announce that Syria, Iran and Hizbullah were behind the assassination.

Sources familiar with the investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005 told Newsmax that the United Nations Special Tribunal for Lebanon will accuse Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei of giving the order to murder the former Lebanese prime minister, according to the Lebanese website Naharnet.

The sources told Newsmax, an American news website, that the tribunal will lay out evidence showing that the murder was committed by Iran's Quds force and Hezbollah.

The order to murder Hariri was transmitted to Imad Mughniyeh, Hezbollah's top commander at the time, by Quds force chief Qassem Suleymani, sources familiar with the investigation told Newsmax.

The sources said Mughniyeh and his brother-in-law, Mustapha Badr al-Dine, put together the hit team that carried out the attack. "The Iranians considered Hariri to be an agent of Saudi Arabia, and felt that killing him would pave the way for a Hezbollah takeover of Lebanon," one of the sources said.

According to the sources, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and his brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, the head of Syrian intelligence, also played key roles in the assassination plot.

A few days ago Hezbollah toppled the government of Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated former prime minister. Saad Hariri returned to Lebanon Friday after visiting the US and France.

The report is scheduled to be released Monday. It's little wonder that Hizbullah was trying to divert attention from its culpability by bringing down the government and Iran's latest claims that they shot down US UAVs and that they've made advances on their nuclear enrichment program. Hizbullah has pitched itself as a resistance group dedicated to stopping Israel's involvement in Lebanon, but this shows through the lie, and reinforces the reality that Hizbullah is nothing more than a proxy army for Damascus and Tehran.

Hizbullah has threatened further violence if anyone attempts to take those involved in the assassination into custody.

The report also indicates that Hizbullah, Syria, and Iran carried out the assassination because they considered Rafik to be too close to Saudi Arabia.

Lebanese leader Amin Gemayel notes that Hizbullah's threats and actions are designed to maximize their power by any means necessary and that the Lebanese people are seeing through their machinations.

Lebanon's Political Crisis Deepens

Lebanon's political situation remains exceedingly fragile as Hizbullah has pulled out of the government and has forced the Lebanese President to bring about talks for a new Prime Minister. Those talks are scheduled to begin on Monday.



Hizbullah didn't like the fact that Prime Minister Saad Hariri was backing efforts to investigate the assassination of his father, Rafik Hariri. His assassination has been tied back to Hizbullah and its terror masters in Syria and Iran and Hizbullah is doing all it can to avoid responsibility and culpability.

Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that his party will "calculate our steps" after withdrawing from the Lebanese government, at a meeting of party leaders on earlier on Thursday, Al-Jazeera reported.

Nasrallah explained that his party left the government because the "expected result of the international tribunal for the former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri is aimed at the resistance."

Suleiman asked Hariri, as well as other members of his party, to remain in their positions in a transitional government, Lebanese news sources reported on Thursday.

Hizbullah told Suleiman that it will not allow Hariri to continue as prime minister, according to a Thursday report by Lebanese paper Al-Akhbar.

"He is not fit to have this responsibility, as experience has proven," a Hizbullah source told Al-Akhbar.

Another Hizbullah source told Lebanese daily A-Safir that Hariri will not be prime minister anymore "because he is part of the problem, not the solution."

Thus, it has resorted to bringing down the Hariri government.

Iran is playing its role in all this as well. It's claiming that the fall of the Hariri government is the fault of the Israelis and the US government, which makes no sense unless you think that getting to the bottom of Rafik's assassination and bringing those responsible for his assassination to justice is somehow blame-worthy.

Hizbullah isn't a resistance group. It's a terrorist group that continues operating in contravention of UN SCR 1701, which requires that all militias operating in Lebanon be disarmed. Hizbullah continues to maintain a significant military force, particularly in Southern Lebanon and UNIFIL attempts at disarmament have been limited at best. Hizbullah may at one time have been a resistance group when Israel had invaded Lebanon to deal with the PLO in 1981-2 and thereafter, but Israel has withdrawn from Lebanon since 2005. Hizbullah is not resisting Israel's occupation of Lebanon - it's resisting Israel's existence and uses its position in Lebanon to maintain a destabilizing element on Israel's northern border.

The US is working through France to try and keep Syria on the sidelines and to avoid any violent outbreaks in the coming days and weeks. France has long had a relationship with the Levant and still has good relations in Lebanon and Syria dating back to France's colonial days.

Hizbullah Causes Crisis In Lebanon By Withdrawing From Government

When the terror group Hizbullah doesn't get what it wants, it agitates in all manner of action to get what it wants. It started a devastating war with Israel that caused tremendous damage in Southern Lebanon because it thought it could do serious damage to Israel. It forced its way into the Lebanese government and now it is causing a crisis by withdrawing from the government so that the Prime Minister must take steps to form a new government.

Ten ministers from Lebanon's Hezbollah movement and its political allies announced their resignation on Wednesday and called on President Michel Suleiman to form a new government.

Eleven ministerial resignations would be enough to bring down the government of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri. There was no immediate news on whether another minister, Adnan Sayyed Hussein, who Hezbollah supporters also expect to resign, was stepping down.

Lebanon would be better off if they fulfilled the requirements under UN SCR 1701, which required the Lebanese and UNIFIL to disarm all militias operating in Lebanon, including Hizbullah, but they have repeatedly failed to do so because Hizbullah is well entrenched and heavily armed - moreso than either Lebanon or UNIFIL would care to admit.

Southern Lebanon is essentially Hizbullahland and this may be a step in furtherance of resuming attacks against Israel and/or destabilizing the government of Prime Minister Hariri so that they can increase their reach further.

This is yet another sad day for the Lebanese who are trying to rebuild after decades of sectarian violence, the Israeli invasion to stop the PLO, and Hizbullah's disastrous war.

UPDATE:
Hizbullah must really be worried that the investigation into Rafiq Hariri's assassination will turn up major links to the terror group and its backers in Syria and Iran. PM Hariri is Rafik's son. Hizbullah blames Israel for the assassination without a shred of evidence, even as all fingers point back at Hizbullah and their terror masters in Syria and Iran.

The announcement took place as Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri was in the United States where he has been meeting with various US and United Nations officials.

US President Barack Obama was set to meet Wednesday with the Lebanese prime minister to discuss political tensions in his country stemming from the Hariri investigation, the White House said Tuesday.

The Hizbullah ministers had said they were planning to resign in the afternoon unless Western-backed Hariri — the son of the slain leader — agreed to their demand to convene an urgent Cabinet meeting over the tribunal crisis, Health Minister Mohammed Jawad Khalifeh said on Hizbullah 's Al-Manar TV.

Earlier in the week, Prime Minister Hariri said that he would "seek all means to reach solutions that can guarantee stability, calm and maintain national unity," Lebanon's Daily Star reported.

Hizbullah members are expected to be indicted by the Hariri tribunal, which will hand over its findings within "hours or days," according to a Wednesday report in Lebanese newspaper An Nahar.

Hizbullah has denounced the tribunal as an "Israeli project" and urged Hariri to reject any findings by the court, which has not yet announced any indictments.

Israel Discovers Huge Natural Gas Reserves Off Its Coast

This would be a liberating moment for the Israelis, who have been long dependent on external energy suppliers and whose security has depended on a steady supply of energy imports. An Israeli venture, in conjunction with its US partner, Noble Energy, has found a natural gas deposit that is equal to 1/2 the US total reserve.

On Wednesday, the frenzy got fresh fuel: Noble confirmed its earlier estimates that the field contains 16 trillion cubic feet of gas—making it the world's biggest deepwater gas find in a decade, with enough reserves to supply Israel's gas needs for 100 years.

It's still early days, and getting all that gas out of the seabed may be more difficult than it seems today. But Noble and its partners think the field could hold enough gas to transform Israel, a country precariously dependent on others for energy, into a net-energy exporter.

Such a transformation could potentially alter the geopolitical balance of the Mideast, giving Israel a new economic advantage over its enemies.

Even before Wednesday's announcement confirming the size of Leviathan, the big field was causing a ruckus in Israel and the region.

Leviathan, named after the Biblical sea monster, and two smaller gas fields nearby have kicked up a broad speculative craze.

Excepting the issues with actually exploiting the natural gas find, this raises some new potential avenues for progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Arab Israeli conflict at large.

Money has long been a major lubricant in getting peace deals done and some form of joint venture could potentially bring Palestinians significant economic gains and benefits from new industry and economic opportunities. The US kicked in $2 billion a year to Egypt since the Camp David Accords were signed bringing peace between Israel and Egypt. Israel also got access to oil finds in the Sinai, but the new Leviathan find would dwarf all those other Israeli energy sources.

Don't think for a moment that the Palestinians wont try to claim this for themselves either. Expect Hizbullah and Hamas to claim that the Israelis are stealing Palestinians' birthright of natural resources. Indeed, Hizbullah claims that 3/4 of the Leviathan field is Lebanese. With Hizbullah in a commanding position both on the ground and through its Iranian backers, expect more trouble on the horizon.

Lebanon is looking to expand its offshore energy exploration, knowing that other potential finds are possible.

Israel is now contemplating raising energy taxes to exploit the lucrative find, but US companies, including Noble Energy are lobbying against them. Expect to find a negotiated increase that isn't nearly as high as Israel wants, but which would bring in a tremendous new source of revenue for the Israeli government.

Lebanese Soldiers: We Were Following Orders

The border skirmish along the Lebanese-Israeli border that left four people dead was initiated by the Lebanese military. That was the finding of UNIFIL, which continues its investigation.

The Lebanese representative to UNIFIL said that it was Lebanon's stated policy to respond to any violation of its sovereignty with force.

So, if that's the case, when will Lebanon's military finally disarm Hizbullah, which has carved out Southern Lebanon as a state-within-a-state where Hizbullah continues stockpiling weapons and turning the place into an armed camp under the nose of UNIFIL and the Lebanese military. Both the Lebanese government and UNIFIL are mandated to disarm all militias operating in Southern Lebanon as part of UN SCR 1701. They've failed miserably to do so. Yet, when Israel is on Israel's side of the border and has informed UNIFIL of their plan to clear brush and trees leaning on Israel's security fence, Lebanese troops opened fire.

Israel has the right to protect its sovereignty with force, and it did so by returning fire on Lebanese forces that attacked its troops.

The greatest threat to Lebanon's sovereignty isn't Israel. It's Hizbullah, which threatens to overturn the apple cart and exert its power and authority by force and all means at its disposal.

Yet, there are still people who think that Israel is somehow to blame for the incident. Juan Cole thinks that Israel should have left the tree-clearing to UNIFIL.

Couldn’t they, like, have called in the UNIFIL United Nations peacekeepers to cut down the trees? That is what UNIFIL is there for. Some trees were worth the lives of Lebanese troops and a journalist and that of an Israeli officer?

One surprising thing is that the Lebanese army showed such spunk in the face of the perceived Israeli affront. They know very well that they are vastly outgunned, and of course the Israeli military hit them with fire from helicopter gunships and artillery pieces. What made them so bold, that they shot and killed an Israeli officer over the tree removal?

Another surprise is that the secretary general of the Hizbullah party and militia, Hasan Nasrullah, called on his people to show restraint. Even so, he threatened to intervene if there was another Israeli provocation.

That's nonsense. Israel informed UNIFIL of the maintenance operation, received approval to do so at a time of UNIFIL's choosing, and yet the Lebanese opened fire on that approved project.

Moreover, it's easy to show spunk when you've set up an ambush to attack the Israelis while they were doing maintenance work. If this was a straight up fight, which it turned into, the Lebanese troops got hammered hard.

Hizbullah realized very quickly that this attack could be blamed on them, and they didn't want any part of the fight because they also know how devastating Israel's response was in the 2006 Hizbullah war. While it didn't result in victory for Israel, Hizbullah got pasted and Israel's military is notable in how it learns from its previous mistakes. Hizbullah isn't quite ready to initiate another conflict with Israel, so it is merely biding its time.

The bottom line is that Lebanon's military has to be held accountable for this incident. They refuse to enforce UN SCR 1701, but are trigger happy to go after Israel when Israel is operating on the Israeli side of the Blue Line.

UPDATE:
Media mendacity continues apace. Various captions on photos showing Israelis working along the border where the skirmish between Israeli and Lebanese soldiers occurred makes it appear that the fighting broke out over a tree.

This from the AP:

Israeli soldiers use a mechanical grabber to cut trees in disputed land, claimed by both Israel and Lebanon near the southern village of Adaisseh, Lebanon, Wednesday, Aug. 4, 2010. The Israeli military said it would cut more trees Wednesday in the tense border area where Israel and Lebanon fought the most serious battle between the countries in four years, touched off by a dispute over a cypress tree.

That's factually wrong.

It broke out when a Lebanese soldier opened fire on Israelis carrying out planned maintenance along the fence after consultation and notice to UNIFIL. The precipitating event leading to the deaths was the Lebanese opening fire. UNIFIL clearly stated that Israel was working on clearing brush and trees from its side of the border.