What Good Are Laws Enabling Syrian Political Parties When Assad Keeps Arresting Protesters

What good is a law that allows political parties to be established when Bashar Assad's thugs are arresting the very people who would form the basis of those new political parties.

Women, children and two well-known boxers were among those detained as people took to the streets yesterday for evening rallies in parts of the central city of Homs and the suburbs of Damascus, Ammar Qurabi, of the National Organization for Human Rights in Syria, said in a telephone interview today. At least 300 people were arrested in the capital’s Rukneddine district alone, he said.

The proposed multiparty law endorsed late yesterday by the Cabinet is “a waste of time,” Qurabi said. “As long as there is a system where you have a constitution that says the Baath party is the main party that leads society and the state, then this law is pointless,” he said. The Baath party has dominated Syrian politics since 1963 and banned opposition groups.

At least 19 protesters were killed by security forces over the weekend, Qurabi said. The protests in Syria to demand Assad’s ouster are part of the wave of unrest across the Middle East and North Africa this year that unseated the leaders of Egypt and Tunisia. Assad has blamed the dissent in Syria on a foreign conspiracy, while saying demonstrators’ demands “have merit” and that changes are needed.

The new law is for show - Assad has no intention of allowing power to flow to anyone but his trusted circle of sycophants and family.

This is far from the first time that Assad has claimed that he's made changes to his government or authorized reforms; and each time those announcements coincide with renewed crackdowns, further bloody suppression efforts, and an ever-rising body count at the hands of Assad's security apparatus.

Even Palestinians are realizing that Assad is no friend to their cause. They've started engaging in protests against Assad's regime alongside other Syrians.

Venezuela Wonders About [T]Hugo Chavez's Future

Venezuelans continue wondering about the health of Hugo Chavez, who remains in an undisclosed hospital in Cuba for an undisclosed ailment. The secrecy surrounding Chavez's health and his condition is particularly troubling since Chavez has spent years accumulating power and undermining democracy in the country.

It's little wonder then that his brother, a physics professor of all things, is claiming that Venezuelans support Hugo and that they should be willing to take up arms to continue Hugo's government.

"The revolution was born in the Bicentennial era, and it made it through elections and we want it to continue that way, following a peaceful path that allows us to build Bolivarian socialism, but aware of the dangers that beset us and that the enemy does not rest, we can not forget as authentic revolutionaries, other methods of struggle.... It would be inexcusable to limit ourselves to only the electoral and not see other forms of struggle, including the armed struggle."

Adan Chavez's comment adds to the threat made by General Rangel Silva late last year, when he said the military may not accept an opposition electoral victory.

Adan's comments must also be taken in context of a potential power struggle within the Chavista ranks. With the possibility that President Chavez will be weaker when he returns to power in a few weeks (not to mention quiet questions about succession), there is a struggle for control and influence within the Chavez ranks to fill that power vaccuum. While only Vice President Elías Jaua would be the legitimate constitutional successor for the president, others including Adan think they are better suited for power. Adan wants to make sure the military will be on his side if and when a struggle within the Chavista ranks breaks out.

While the death-watch appears to have started, Chavez supporters are out in force to try and dampen speculation about his health condition. They further claim that reports of cancer are also overblown or false.

The problem for Chavez's supporters is that someone who is normally omnipresent on Venezuelan television and radio with daily addresses and announcements has been pretty much absent from the airwaves since June 10. The level of secrecy surrounding his health condition and whereabouts are similarly strange.

President Obama's Speech On Middle East Relations

Some reports prior to the President addressing the issue today claimed that this would be some form of a reset but the speech was actually a rehash of longstanding US positions, with a few caveats. I don't think this broke new ground, although there are more than a few people claiming that the US has changed position on Palestinian-Israeli relations.

For one thing, the President admitted that the US hasn't exactly held countries like Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia to the same standards that it should have when those regimes cracked down against protesters. This part is particularly good - because he admits that his own Administration's policies towards Bahrain, Yemen, and even the Saudis has been flawed:

Our opposition to Iran's intolerance - as well as its illicit nuclear program, and its sponsorship of terror - is well known. But if America is to be credible, we must acknowledge that our friends in the region have not all reacted to the demands for change consistent with the principles that I have outlined today. That is true in Yemen, where President Saleh needs to follow through on his commitment to transfer power. And that is true, today, in Bahrain.

Bahrain is a long-standing partner, and we are committed to its security. We recognize that Iran has tried to take advantage of the turmoil there, and that the Bahraini government has a legitimate interest in the rule of law. Nevertheless, we have insisted publically and privately that mass arrests and brute force are at odds with the universal rights of Bahrain's citizens, and will not make legitimate calls for reform go away. The only way forward is for the government and opposition to engage in a dialogue, and you can't have a real dialogue when parts of the peaceful opposition are in jail. The government must create the conditions for dialogue, and the opposition must participate to forge a just future for all Bahrainis.

As for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the President said that there cannot be a resolution when the Palestinians deny Israel's right to exist. Yet with that in mind, how exactly can he turn around and restart the peace process when that's precisely the situation Israel faces? With Hamas involved in the Palestinian Authority, the amount of pretzel logic need to claim that the Palestinians accept a 2-state solution is mind-boggling, especially when both Hamas and Fatah refuse to accept Israel (Fatah being part of the PLO and the Palestinian Authority).

Heck, we can't even get the Palestinian Authority to adhere to their obligations under Oslo to stop inciting Palestinians to violence and otherwise de-legitimizing Israel's right to exist.

The President briefly mentioned Jerusalem in the speech, but the key was that the resolution would involve land swaps and as agreed upon by the parties.

The United States believes that negotiations should result in two states, with permanent Palestinian borders with Israel, Jordan, and Egypt, and permanent Israeli borders with Palestine. The borders of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, so that secure and recognized borders are established for both states. The Palestinian people must have the right to govern themselves, and reach their potential, in a sovereign and contiguous state.

As for security, every state has the right to self-defense, and Israel must be able to defend itself - by itself - against any threat. Provisions must also be robust enough to prevent a resurgence of terrorism; to stop the infiltration of weapons; and to provide effective border security. The full and phased withdrawal of Israeli military forces should be coordinated with the assumption of Palestinian security responsibility in a sovereign, non-militarized state. The duration of this transition period must be agreed, and the effectiveness of security arrangements must be demonstrated.

Also, I'm curious how he intends to have a contiguous Palestinian state when Gaza and the West Bank are separated as they are now. Previous discussions have suggested building land bridges or tunnels, but none of these issues can be acted upon until the Palestinians get over the threshold issue of accepting a 2-state solution, which is something that was originally included in Oslo.

On this point, the President's speech regarding Israel and the Palestinians isn't breaking ground. It rehashes the American positions since at least the George H.W. Bush Administration (Madrid Conference). It doesn't break any new ground.

Yet, there are some media outlets that clearly get the reporting on this wrong, including the AP.

President Barack Obama is endorsing the Palestinians' demand for their future state to be based on the borders that existed before the 1967 Middle East war, in a move that will likely infuriate Israel. Israel says the borders of a Palestinian state have to be determined through negotiations.

In a speech outlining U.S. policy in the Middle East and North Africa, Obama on Thursday sided with the Palestinians' opening position a day ahead of a visit to Washington by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu is vehemently opposed to referring to the 1967 borders.

This is inaccurate reporting at its finest. Obama hasn't changed US position on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict, and is still committed to final status talks to resolve final borders.

Where Obama clearly gets it wrong is in his statements to cajole Bashar Assad into leading a transition of how Syria is governed. Assad hasn't remained a dictator by getting out the way or transitioning his regime into something else. The Hama Rules rule for a reason in the ME (and Assad's father stayed in power using them to the hilt). Assad's only error is that he didn't use enough power to crush the opposition weeks ago.

So unless the US is going to get involved in Syria to the same extent that the US/NATO is in Libya, Assad isn't going anywhere unless the Syrian people rise up and are joined by the military in that uprising. That isn't likely to happen as the military has pretty much remained solidly behind the Assad regime. There were some reports that some units refused to fire on protesters, but they were dealt with by Assad's loyalists.

Sanctions aren't going to get Assad to change tactics.

UPDATE:
With the growing brouhaha over Obama's speech as it relates to Israel and its borders, this is perhaps the most important part of his speech, as per the transcript:

For the Palestinians, efforts to delegitimize Israel will end in failure. Symbolic actions to isolate Israel at the United Nations in September won't create an independent state. Palestinian leaders will not achieve peace or prosperity if Hamas insists on a path of terror and rejection. And Palestinians will never realize their independence by denying the right of Israel to exist. As for Israel, our friendship is rooted deeply in a shared history and shared values. Our commitment to Israel's security is unshakeable. And we will stand against attempts to single it out for criticism in international forums. But precisely because of our friendship, it is important that we tell the truth: the status quo is unsustainable, and Israel too must act boldly to advance a lasting peace.

Everything else is moot unless the Palestinians recognize Israel's right to exist. That includes any talk of final status borders.

This is the strongest wording on this point and it supersedes all talk about Israel's borders. After all, if the Palestinians don't accept Israel's right to exist, talk about borders is moot.

Moreover, if Obama was truly talking about 1967 borders as the media keeps shilling, then in reality he'd be talking about the post 1948 border (aka the Green Line), but that's not the terminology he used.

There was a specific reason he used 1967 line - with agreed upon land swaps, because it is a reference back to UN SCR 242 and 338 and Oslo, all of which involve land for peace and do not require Israel to return to the pre 1967 Green Line border.

Yemen's Saleh Accepting Resignation Deal Tomorrow

It is expected that Yemen's autocratic ruler, Ali Abdullah Saleh, will resign according to a deal to be signed tomorrow but the key concern is that Saleh will avoid prosecution because he's been granted immunity:

Yemen's government and opposition will sign on Wednesday a deal under which President Ali Abdullah Saleh would step down 30 days later, officials say.

Mr Saleh's General People's Congress party and the opposition coalition, the Common Front, have both agreed to take part in a national unity government.

Despite the imminent deal, protesters are continuing to be killed by security forces and the country remains in turmoil:



The deal hinges on the Parliament passing legislation providing immunity from prosecution for the president, his family "and those who worked with him during his rule". That's quite a wide net - and means that those who engaged in torture, indefinite detentions, and other criminal mischief would not be able to be prosecuted.

Yet, despite that golden parachute, the General People's Congress immediately accepted the GCC proposal, while the Common Front agreed on Sunday only after its leaders had received "assurances" from the GCC, the US and Europe on the transfer of power. A peaceful handover of power is preferable to the ongoing turmoil, and this is considered the lesser of evils.

Video Shows Capture of Ivory Coast's Gbagbo

Despite claims in earlier reports that French special forces and helicopters were involved in the capture of Laurent Gbagbo, newly released video shows Ivory Coast rebels making the final push into his compound and capturing Gbagbo.



He's since been moved to a villa where he is being kept under guard before he is expected to face justice both under national and international law:

Ivory Coast's new President Alassane Ouattara has said all sides in the country's conflict must face justice.

He said he would ask the International Criminal Court to probe massacres in which both his forces and those of his rival Laurent Gbagbo were suspected.

Mr Gbagbo was captured on Monday by Mr Ouattara's forces after he refused to accept he lost elections in November.

He will now face charges at a "national level and an international level", Mr Ouattara said.

At a news conference in the main city of Abidjan, Mr Ouattara said Mr Gbagbo had been moved to a secure location.

Ouattara won the election in November, and Gbagbo refused to relinquish power, setting off the conflict that claimed hundreds of lives and caused incalculable damage to the economy.

The new president also intends to impose justice equally on those who committed crimes in the name of Gbagbo and his own supporters, and also sought to clamp down on looters taking advantage of the security vacuum. He's saying all the right things for the moment, but time will tell whether he turns out to be what Ivory Coast needs.

Sanctions are likely to be lifted against the country now that Gbagbo is out of power.

Pro Khadafi Forces Fail To Recapture Key Towns; Fighting Continues; Death Toll 6,500+?

Mumar Khadafi's loyalists and hired thugs were unable to retake a key town near Tripoli despite attacking from several different directions.

Forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi tried to retake a town near the capital that is in opposition control but were repelled, an opposition leader in the town told CNN Tuesday.

Pro-Gadhafi troops with tanks and anti-aircraft guns attacked Zawiya from both east and west as night fell Monday, but did not capture the town, a short drive from the capital Tripoli, the source said.

Zawiya is calm Tuesday, but Gadhafi's troops remain outside it, the opposition leader and another source in the town said. CNN is not naming them to protect their safety.

In London, meanwhile, the Libyan embassy said it was siding with the opposition, condemning what it called "all acts of murder and terror " taking place in their homeland.

More European countries and companies froze assets belonging to Gadhafiand his family. Austria's central bank said it was freezing all assets held by the family, while Germany said it was freezing two million euros ($2.76 million) belong to one of Gadhafi's sons, without specifying which.

Khadafi continues to dismiss the international pressure on his regime, the fact that his diplomatic corps has deserted him, the army has largely abandoned him, and that his loyalists are being outnumbered to the point where he needs to bring in mercenaries.

Perhaps Khadafi thinks that his stature is enhanced by standing up to the West, but this isn't about standing up to the West, it's about the brutal crackdown against his own countrymen. He's far from being loved in his own country, and while those involved in his cult of personality are playing into his deranged worldview, the number of people formerly involved with his regime continues to grow (via BBC):

#
1423: Libya's two state television channels have been broadcasting programmes and phone-ins expressing support and allegiance for Col Gaddafi, BBC Monitoring reports. They have also shown pictures of families receiving the payouts announced by the government recently, and denied a military aircraft crashed near Misrata. The state newspaper al-Jamhariya is meanwhile reporting on a US-led conspiracy against national unity.
#
1418: Staff Brig Gen Mansour Mohammed Abu Hajar, head of the Libyan army's armoured vehicles and infantry division in Benghazi, has told al-Arabiya that he and the division's personnel have joined the rebels. "[We] announce our joining of this blessed revolution, which we hope God Almighty will grant success and victory. We denounce the killing and the extermination of defenceless youths by the security brigades and hired mercenaries. I and all the division's personnel put ourselves at the disposal of this glorious revolution," he says.

Khadafi is busy trying to shroud this situation in a cloak of conspiracies against his regime, which all but ignores the plight of the Libyan people and the brutal way his government has cracked down against protesters demanding more rights, economic opportunities, and freedoms. The Army's defections show just how great the disconnect is between Khadafi and his people.

Meanwhile, the nuclear disarmament deal carried out under President Bush takes on renewed significance considering the perilous security situation. There are still concerns over Libya's chemical weapons inventory, but thus far there have been no indications that those items have been moved or dispersed.

UPDATE:
The NY Times reports on Khadafi whitewashing reports of protests and uprisings in Tripoli, including the actual use of paint to cover anti-Khadafi graffiti in the city ahead of journalists gaining access with minders in tow.

UPDATE:
To keep track of what's going on and where, the NY Times has a great feature showing updates by country.

UPDATE:
According to sources available to Gulf News, the death toll from fighting in Libya and the ongoing protests is more than 6,500.

UPDATE:
The U.N. General Assembly has suspended Libya from its seat on the 47-member Human Rights Council. However, the Security Council has ruled out the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya for the time being.

Khadafi's Regime Under Assault as Protests Spread To Oman

Mumar Khadafi's regime continues to come under a withering assault from those who have defected from the regime (which includes the diplomatic corps, much of the Army, and tribal groups across the country). Despite the fact that it appears that the number of Khadafi loyalists is dwindling and he's increasingly reliant on mercenaries and paid thugs to carry out his deranged attempt to stay in power by murdering his countrymen to retain power in Tripoli, Khadafi and his sons claim that the opposition is actually a tiny minority that was egged on by al Qaeda, Islamists, and the West (including the US).



There's a huge disconnect between events and what the Khadafi regime thinks is going on - and the disconnect is only going to increase the death toll since the regime's control over the country is apparently limited to not much beyond Tripoli although there are reports that Khadafi loyalists are preparing to assault a town taken over by the opposition just 30 miles from Tripoli.

Khadafi, who had resisted allowing journalists access to the country, brought in journalists to Tripoli to show them that the situation was normal, but those journalists in the western part of the country tell a different tale - one where Khadafi no longer rules. Journalists were taken to a town Zawiyah, located 30 miles from Tripoli, to show that the situation was well in hand, but those journalists saw that the opposition was firmly in control.

Sanctions by the EU and other countries isn't going to affect Khadafi's ability to increase the death toll across the country, and the UN is contemplating war crimes against the Libyan regime.

Meanwhile, protests have broken out in the Gulf country of Oman. Two protesters were killed as several thousand people demonstrated against the Omani regime.



Security forces fired tear gas and rubber bullets against the protesters, who were demanding more rights and freedoms. The Omani government attempted to fend off the demonstrations by bribing the population with a claim that thousands would be granted jobs and compensation while looking for jobs:

The nation’s ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, has so far announced the creation of 50,000 new government jobs and an unemployment program that will pay job seekers $390 per month until they find work, reports CNN.

RELATED: How absolute is Qaddafi's power? 4 key questions.

These concessions appear to have done little to quiet protesters, whose demands include an increase in power for the legislative body, although they have stopped short of calling for the resignation of Sultan Qaboos. The leader has so far replaced six cabinet members, the Guardian reports.

“We want new faces in the government and we have a long list of social reforms,” Habiba al-Hanay, a 45-year-old civil servant, told the Guardian. “We just hope he will hear us and make changes.”

The most violent protests have taken place in the industrial port city of Sohar, where thousands of demonstrators are said to have clashed with police on Sunday. There are conflicting reports as to whether police fired live ammunition or rubber bullets at demonstrators and how many people have died in the protests. Oman’s health minister said only one protester died in Sohar, but Reuters reports that doctors in Sohar’s main hospital recorded six deaths.

As we've seen in Bahrain and other countries in the Middle East, bribery isn't sufficient to quell the demonstrations - the demonstrators are demanding greater rights and political access in addition to economic opportunities.

There's a sea change going on in the Middle East, and the regimes are slowly beginning to realize the depths of despair and lack of opportunities, tied with repressive regimes with limited political opportunities has created a wholly untenable situation.

UPDATE:
Apparently Khadafi is now passing out cash in hopes of staving off the inevitable. Government minders were accompanying journalists around, so is it any surprise that the people journalists interviewed in Tripoli were repeating the government line?

Khadafi Still Does Not Get It Even As Country Revolts Against His 40 Year Regime

After two attempts to rally his own thugs and loyalists in rambling speeches, Mumar Khadafi is now trying to bribe his way out of trouble by raising wages, increasing subsidies, and other assorted bribes.

The time to try and bribe the populace is not when pretty much the entire army has defected, tribes have sided with regime's opponents, and your loyalists have murdered the opposition en masse.

The time to do that was at the earliest stages of potential unrest.

Those efforts wont be any more successful than the violent attempts to suppress the opposition that has left hundreds, if not thousands, dead.

The New York-based Human Rights Watch has put the death toll in Libya at nearly 300, according to a partial count. Italy's Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said estimates of some 1,000 people killed were "credible." French estimates suggest some 2,000 people may have died.

Gadhafi's response to the uprising in his country has been the harshest by any Arab leader in the wave of protests that has swept the Middle East recently, toppling the presidents of Libya's neighbors Egypt and Tunisia.

In Brussels, NATO also planned to hold an emergency meeting Friday to consider the deteriorating situation in Libya. It had received no requests to intervene said it would only do so if it were given a United Nations mandate.

Khadafi's time is pretty much up, and the only one to not realize this salient fact is Khafadi and those who surround him.

His regime is pretty much in control of Tripoli, while the opposition is consolidating its control over the rest of the country.



The Obama Administration has taken a somewhat muted approach to the ongoing violence in Libya, but is consulting with France, Italy, and the UK over a course of action.

While some critics say the Obama administration has been slow to react to the deteriorating situation in Libya, the statement said Thursday's discussions were to "coordinate our urgent efforts to respond to developments and ensure that there is appropriate accountability."

"The leaders discussed the range of options that both the United States and European countries are preparing to hold the Libyan government accountable for its actions, as well as planning for humanitarian assistance," the White House statement said.

U.S. officials have said all options were under consideration, including sanctions and enforcement of a no-fly zone, to try to stop the Libyan government from attacking protesters.

A statement by the French Embassy said Obama discussed steps the United States plans to take regarding Libya in his phone call with Sarkozy.

Calls for arms embargoes and no-fly zones wont do much to quell the violence, as Khadafi's loyalists are more than capable of unleashing a bloodbath without additional arms shipments. The Libyan air force isn't reliable, particularly after several pilots have defected or deliberately crashed their planes rather than fire on the crowds.

UPDATE:
Al Jazeera is once again reporting that Khadafi loyalists have opened fire on protesters killing at least six people in Tripoli. Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets throughout the country to demonstrate against Khadafi. Those protesting in Tripoli are in grave danger considering that the city is Khadafi's last bastion.

UPDATE:
Via BBC, there are reports that one of the military airbases near Tripoli from which aircraft took off that strafed crowds has now fallen to the opposition:

#
1457: The Guardian correspondent Martin Chulov tweets from Benghazi: "The Mitiga air base is confirmed to have fallen in Tripoli. #Libya. #Ghaddafi. Planes that strafed citizens took off from here."

UPDATE:
Khadafi was again out addressing his supporters, and claimed that he would arm his loyalists to go and kill those opposed to his regime. He's still convinced that the uprising is part of a foreign conspiracy and continues to think that the West, or al Qaeda, or drugs are behind the threat to his regime.

"We can defeat any aggression if necessary and arm the people," Gaddafi said, in footage that was aired on Libyan state television on Friday.

"I am in the middle of the people.. we will fight … we will defeat them if they want … we will defeat any foreign aggression.
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"Dance … sing and get ready … this is the spirit … this is much better than the lies of the Arab propaganda," he said.

The speech, which also referred to Libya's war of independence with Italy, appeared to be aimed at rallying what remains of his support base, with specific reference to the country's youth.

His last speech, on Thursday evening had been made by phone, leading to speculation about his physical condition.

The footage aired on Friday, however, showed the leader standing above the square, waving his fist as he spoke.

No one knows for sure just how many of his supporters are out there, but there's more tangible evidence that he's brought in mercenaries to do his dirty work.

Khadafi and his son are going to get their wish if they keep up with their dead-end strategy:

Muammar Gaddafi has appeared in Tripoli's Green Square to address supporters. The embattled Libyan leader told the crowds: "We will continue to fight. We will defeat them. We will die here on Libyan soil." (See 4.54pm.) Earlier Gaddafi's son Saif vowed his family will "live and die in Libya".

• The entire Libyan mission to the UN in Geneva has quit, its second secretary calling for a moment of silence to "honour this revolution" (see 3.32pm). Most of Libya's delegation to the UN in New York had already abandoned the regime. The Libyan delegation to the Arab League in Cairo has renounced Gaddafi and condemned his attack on "unarmed citizens" (see 3.41pm). Libya's ambassadors to France and Unesco quit and condemned the violence. Prosecutor-general Abdul-Rahman al-Abbar became the latest senior official to resign and join the opposition.

• There are reports of troops firing on protesters in Tripoli (see 4.11pm and 4pm).

UPDATE:
This is a pretty fascinating (and frightening) report about an interview given by one of Khadafi's sons who happens to have been educated in London. The son, when asked if his father and the regime have a plan B if he's ousted, notes:

"We have Plan A, Plan B and Plan C. Plan A is to live and die in Libya, Plan B is to live and die in Libya, Plan C is to live and die in Libya."

Violence Continues In Libya As Khadafi Attempts To Squash Insurrection

So, what exactly is going on in Libya now? What started out as protests has turned into what can be described as a civil war or insurrection against Mumar Khadafi's regime. Khadafi's grip on Libya is severely constrained as the army continues to side with the opposition and his loyalists are largely holding on to Tripoli.

Yet, Khadafi is attempting to sow seeds of violence and discord by firing on civilians, including those that sought refuge in mosques.

An army unit and militiamen loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi blasted a mosque with antiaircraft missiles and automatic weapons Thursday, targeting protesters who had holed up inside. The attack, which occurred just 30 miles from Tripoli, comes as Qaddafi finds himself increasingly squeezed by antiregime forces and isolated internationally for his brutal attempts to hold on to power.

Protesters inside the mosque “suffered heavy casualties,” though estimates for numbers killed were not available from witnesses, the Associated Press reports.

The attack was reportedly carried out by a legion of mercenaries and Qaddafi's personal security forces. The New York Times describes the mercenary brigade fighting with an increasingly isolated Qaddafi, who may have even been deserted by parts of the Libyan armed forces at this point:

Distrustful of even his own generals, Colonel Qaddafi has for years quietly built up this ruthless and loyal force. It is made up of special brigades headed by his sons, segments of the military loyal to his native tribe and its allies, and legions of African mercenaries he has helped train and equip. Many are believed to have fought elsewhere, in places like Sudan, but he has now called them back.

Opposition groups now hold much of the country outside Tripoli, including oil fields, refineries, and cities.

The fighting has spread westward towards Tunisia, as opposition groups consolidate their control over Tobruk and eastern Libya.

There's concern that with foreigners fleeing the country that Khadafi may engage in an even more violent crackdown against the opposition. I'm not so sure that Khadafi is in a position to carry out that kind of violence outside of Tripoli and he's being further constrained on a daily basis as his thugs and mercenaries are pushed back.

UPDATE:
Those fleeing Libya are fortunate enough to be escaping the violence. Egyptians that have fled have called the situation a bloodbath, and that supports contentions that hundreds, if not thousands have already died.

UPDATE:
Another sign that Khadafi isn't all there? He's claiming that al Qaeda is behind the uprising against his regime by drugging people's Nescafe in his latest speech given a day after his last rambling speech blaming external groups/forces for the uprising.

Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi on Thursday blamed the uprising in his country on al-Qaida followers who give young Libyans hallucinogenic pills in their coffee to get them to revolt.

In a rambling phone call to Libyan state TV, Gadhafi said those revolting are "loyal to bin Laden ... This is al-Qaida that the whole world is fighting." Al-Qaida militants are "exploiting" teenagers, giving them "hallucinogenic pills in their coffee with milk, like Nescafe," the embattled leader said.

Nescafe? People still drink that?

Sadly, the only person who appears to be utilizing hallucinogenic pills is Khadafi, who is still under the impression that people want him to remain in power, and he's going to hang around well past his expiration date.

UPDATE:


This video shows the border crossing between Libya and Tunisia and Tunisians trying to help Libyans escape the bloodbath:



Three Egyptians are confirmed killed in Libya as a result on Khadafi's ongoing crackdown. 25,000 Egyptians have fled Libya since Khadafi's crackdown began.

UPDATE:
Rumors began circulating among oil traders earlier today that Khadafi was shot and killed. There's no evidence Khadafi's dead, but that didn't stop traders from sharply selling off oil futures today.

I'd say that was wishful thinking - and Khadafi's end can't come soon enough.

Death Toll Rises In Libya as Regimes Continue Crackdowns Against Protests

It's believed that at least 200 people have been killed in Libya by Mumar Khadafi's security forces. The protesters have been rallying against Khadafi's failed 40+ year rule over the country, and comes amidst revolutions in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt.

Moammar Gadhafi's forces have opened fire on mourners at the funeral for anti-government protesters in the city of Benghazi, where a doctor says at least 200 people have already been slain in days of demonstrations.

A man shot in the leg Sunday said marchers were bearing coffins to a cemetery when they passed a Gadhafi compound in Libya's second-largest city. The man said security forces fired in the air and then opened up on the crowd.

A hospital official says four people have been wounded, two seriously.

The doctor in Benghazi, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he fears reprisal, said his hospital is out of supplies and cannot treat more than 70 wounded who were hit in the attacks and need attention.

"I am crying," the doctor said. "Why is the world not listening?"

Witnesses told The Associated Press a mixture of special commandos, foreign mercenaries and Gadhafi loyalists went after demonstrators on Saturday with knives, assault rifles and heavy-calibre weapons.

Protesters were again attacked in Yemen as well, as the Yemeni regime attempted to break the protests there as well.



There are ongoing demonstrations in Bahrain as well. The situation there remains dangerous but the security forces have backed off for the moment.

In Bahrain, thousands of jubilant opposition protesters moved back into Pearl Square in the capital, Manama, Saturday, setting up a tent camp after the Gulf state's minority Sunni rulers ordered police and army forces to withdraw.

Bahrain's ruling al-Khalifa family also offered to open a dialogue with the majority Shi'ite-led opposition, which has demanded democratic reforms to strip the constitutional monarchy of its powers to fill key government posts.

UPDATE:
It looks like a full scale insurrection is going on in Libya, as opponents to the regime took a car packed with explosives and drove it into a military camp to blow it up; security forces then opened fire on the protesters.

Protests in Benghazi, Libya, escalated Sunday, as protesters packed at least one car with explosives and sent it crashing into a compound wall at the Alfadeel Abu-Omar military camp, witnesses said.

Security forces then fired on protesters as they attempted to breach the camp, the witnesses said.

Earlier, thousands of mourners, some carrying coffins above their heads, crowded into the streets of Benghazi.

The crowds walked as part of a funeral for several people killed in clashes that began Saturday afternoon between civilians and security forces loyal to Gadhafi, eyewitnesses told CNN.

Clashes disrupted the funeral processions on Sunday as mourners walked toward the city's main cemetery, witnesses said. The route used by them passes by police headquarters and the Alfadeel Abu-Omar military camp.

One man, who was in the procession, said a uniformed battalion opened fire on the mourners. Some people were killed, he said, but did not give a number.

UPDATE:
Numerous reports indicate that the death toll continues rising, but there are also reports that elements of the Libyan military have defected from Khadafi, particularly in Benghazi. Clashes have now broken out in Tripoli.

Khadafi's son warns that the regime will restore calm at any price, which means that the bloodshed will only increase significantly.

Libya's army has been told to restore security "at any price" and will remain loyal to longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi, Gadhafi's son told Libyans in a televised address early Monday.

[Updated: 1:30 a.m. Monday, Libya; 6:30 p.m. Sunday ET]: The son of longtime Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi early Monday promised widespread reforms, including increased salaries and a relaxed criminal code, in an attempt to head off a growing revolt.

[Updated: 1:19 a.m. Monday, Libya; 6:19 p.m. Sunday ET]: The son of Moammar Gadhafi warned early Monday that the country faced "civil war" and a breakup of the nation if protesters go on.

[Updated: 1:09 a.m. Monday, Libya; 6:09 p.m. Sunday ET]: The son of Moammar Gadhafi said early Monday that a "great sedition" was under way in Benghazi, the country's second-largest city, but said the death toll was smaller than what is being reported by international news outlets.

Days of Protest and Rage Continue Throughout Middle East and North Africa

Protests continue throughout the Middle East and North Africa, with the deadly consequences in Libya and Yemen.

Libyan protesters defy Gadhafi and his regime is struggling to put down growing protests in cities other than Tripoli. The Libyans are preparing for a day of protest against Khadafi's regime.



Bahrain mourners call for end to monarchy. The funerals today have become rallying points for opposition to the Bahraini monarchy.



There are further protests in Jordan.

Four protesters die on Yemen's 'Friday of Rage'.

Meanwhile, the situation in Iran has gotten even more complicated. There are reports that the IRGC, which is the regime's elite military cadre that has its hands in every aspect of the Iranian economy and has been considered most loyal to the regime's mullahs, has actually sought to get assurances that they will not be asked to open fire on protesters.

I'd say that's pretty significant and should give a modicum of hope to the opposition who had previously confronted a united IRGC that was more than willing to use force.

The problem is that the officers who signed that letter are most likely to be replaced/erased from their commands by the regime. They're pretty ballsy to make such demands on the regime, which showed absolutely no qualms about opening fire on the protesters last time.

If the IRGC isn't as reliable as previously believed, that means that the enforcement role may be picked up to an even greater extent by the Basij or the Iranian regime may try to shift around its troops that they know to be loyal to deal with the protesters.

That hasn't stopped the calls for opposition leader Mirhussein Mousavi to be killed and follows similar calls from the Iranian parliament for the death of those opposed to the regime.

With all the unrest in the region, Libya has called off an Arab League summit scheduled for March 29.

A week after Hosni Mubarak was deposed in Egypt, there are renewed protests and strikes, including among Suez Canal workers protesting wages and economic conditions. The problem is that the military, which sent Mubarak packing, has a vested interest in consolidating power in itself and isn't nearly as willing to make changes to the economy because it has inserted itself into nearly every area of the economy.

UPDATE:
Things are getting quite dangerous in Bahrain for mourners and journalists as military has opened fire on mourners and journalists.

A Western official quoted a witness saying that the shooters were from the military, not the police, and that protesters began dropping to the ground after the firing started.

It was not immediately clear if the army was using live ammunition or rubber bullets to fire at the crowd, mostly young men who had been part of a funeral procession for protesters killed earlier in a crackdown by police on their peaceful revolt against the government.

Minutes later, forces in a helicopter fired on a reporter and videographer who were shooting a video on the latest violence.

That earlier crackdown killed at least five people and, once again, left the Obama administration in the uncomfortable position of dealing with a strategic Arab ally locked in a showdown with its people.

On Thursday, the masses of once-peaceful protesters were transformed into a mob of angry mourners chanting slogans like “death to Khalifa,” the king, while the opposition withdrew from the Parliament and demanded that the government step down. At the main hospital following the violence, thousands gathered screaming, crying and collapsing in grief.

Military helicopters opened fire on journalists with the New York Times.

My colleague Michael Slackman reports that he and a video producer for The Times, Sean Patrick Farrell, were just shot at from a helicopter over Bahrain's Pearl Roundabout as they were filming a report there, minutes after the army opened fire on protesters trying to march into the area they had been cleared out of one day earlier in a deadly raid.

A Bahriani blogger who writes on Twitter as RedhaHaji expressed his shock on the social network, writing: "This is not real. Not happening."

UPDATE:
Nicholas Kristof, who is reporting from Bahrain notes that there have been quite a few protesters who were grievously wounded - many with head trauma.

Protests and Deaths Rock Libya and Bahrain

Libya's Mumar Khadafi and the Bahraini regimes are both using deadly force to quell the protests that have sprung up in the wake of the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt.

Reports of deaths in Libya mount.

There were reports of 16 deaths, but they could not be independently confirmed.

A text message sent out earlier on mobile phones had threatened Libyans planning to take to the streets, activists and bloggers said.

"From Libya's youth to anyone who dares to cross any of the four red lines come and face us in any street on the ground of our beloved country," the Short Message System dispatch said, referring to a speech by Saif el-Islam Gadhafi, Moammar Gadhafi's son, in which he described the lines as Islamic law, the Quran, Libyan security and his father.

They apparently did little to deter demonstrators. Protests in the isolated North African nation broke out this week, part of a larger anti-government movement sweeping the region.

Libya's regime has limited foreign journalists access to the country, which limits its coverage other than from reports and tweets from those inside the country trying to spread the word about the protests.

Bahrain is also racked by protests, and a US journalist was among those injured in melees between protesters and Bahraini security.

A US reporter for ABC News was beaten by thugs armed with clubs early Thursday while covering the unrest in Bahrain, the US network reported.

Correspondent Miguel Marquez was caught in the crowd and attacked while covering protests in Manama, ABC said.

Marquez, who said he was not badly injured, was clubbed while he was on the phone with his headquarters in New York describing the scene as riot police stormed through a Manama square in the dark in a harsh crackdown on anti-regime protesters.

"No! No! No! Hey! I'm a journalist here!" he yelled while still on the phone. "I'm going! I'm going! I'm going! I'm going! ... I'm hit."

He said that the thugs pulled his camera out of his hands.

"I just got beat rather badly by a gang of thugs," Marquez said in a later call to ABC headquarters. "I'm now in a marketplace near our hotel where people are cowering in buildings."

Bahraini security launched a brutal assault on the protesters using lethal force in the process:



The military moved forcefully to clear the main square where protests hoped to converge following the scene of protests in Tahrir Square. The military now occupies the square, leaving the protesters to find alternative locations and regroup for further demonstrations.

With the death toll rising, the demonstrations and protests are likely to be connected with the funerals of those killed by security forces. That's likely to be a rallying point against the Bahraini regime that has moved too slowly on political and economic reforms.

UPDATE:
The brutality with which the Bahraini regime is putting down the demonstrations is heartbreaking to Nicholas Kristof, who writes:

The pro-democracy movement has bubbled for decades in Bahrain, but it found new strength after the overthrow of the dictatorships in Tunisia and Egypt. Then the Bahrain government attacked the protesters early this week with stunning brutality, firing tear gas, rubber bullets and shotgun pellets at small groups of peaceful, unarmed demonstrators. Two demonstrators were killed (one while walking in a funeral procession), and widespread public outrage gave a huge boost to the democracy movement.

King Hamad initially pulled the police back, but early on Thursday morning he sent in the riot police, who went in with guns blazing. Bahrain television has claimed that the protesters were armed with swords and threatening security – that’s preposterous. I was on the roundabout earlier that night and saw many thousands of people, including large numbers of women and children, even babies. Many were asleep.

I was not at the roundabout at the time of the attack, but afterward at the main hospital (one of at least three to receive casualties) I saw the effects. More than 600 people were treated with injuries, overwhelmingly men but including small numbers of women and children.

One nurse told me that she was on the roundabout and saw a young man of about 24, handcuffed and then beaten by a group of police. She said she then watched as they executed him at point-blank range with a gun. The nurse told me her name, but I will not use full names of some people in this column to avoid putting them at greater risk.

Dr. Ahmed Jamal, the president of the Bahrain Medical Society, said that one doctor, Sadiq Ekri, a surgeon, had been badly beaten by riot police while attempting to treat the injured. Dr. Ekri has a suspected fracture at the base of his skull, according to Dr. Jamal.

Kristof also reports anecdotes that the Saudi military was involved in the military suppression of the protests and the bloody and violent nature of the suppression.

Bringing in foreign troops would also explain why things got so violent so quickly. The Saudis would have no connection to the protesters (as the Egyptian troops felt kinship with the protesters), and so wouldn't be aligned in interests. If this is confirmed, the Bahraini king brought in foreign troops to do his dirty work to stay in power.

UPDATE:
Tanks seen in this video M-60s, which are older American-designed tanks. Both the Bahraini and Saudi military has significant numbers of this older tank.

There is supposedly video of Saudi tanks rolling across the causeway into Bahrain, but I can't locate that at the moment. Photos claiming Saudi tanks are rolling into Bahrain are also M-60 tank variants. I can't make out any identifying markings to say which army operates those tanks.

Yet, there are reports that the Saudis sent 150 tanks and personnel carriers into Bahrain via Qatar. Stay tuned.

UPDATE:
Via Memri, there is additional confirmation that the Saudis are assisting the Bahraini regime crack down against the protesters - and it may be part of a strategy to keep the Saudi regime in place by thwarting protests in neighboring countries.

Squeeze Play Begins On Libya's Khadafi

Mumar Khadafi had to know this was coming. After revolutions saw the longstanding regimes fall in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt, it wasn't going to be long before Libyans saw that the protests could succeed and bring down autocratic and despotic regimes as well as bring about a new political activism.

Libyans have taken to the streets en masse.

Hundreds of protesters took to the streets of Libya Wednesday in the first sign that the unrest which toppled governments in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt has spread to the North African nation.

Witnesses said protesters in the eastern port city of Benghazi chanted slogans demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi.

The Associated Press said that the crowds did not appear to direct their anger at Moammar Gadhafi, who is Africa's longest-serving leader. He has ruled for 41 years.

However, Dubai-based television news service Al-Jazeera reported that sources said the demonstrators chanted slogans against the "corrupt rulers of the country."

Al-Jazeera said the protesters had called on citizens to observe Thursday as a "Day of Rage," hoping to emulate the popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia and end Gadhafi's regime.

Violent clashes between protesters and security forces were reported in Benghazi.

Protests and Threats

The protests continue in Iran, Yemen, and even Bahrain, along with Egypt and Algeria. Two people were killed in the Bahrain protests, and members of the Parliament have walked out.

Two protesters have died in clashes with Bahraini police, sparking angry calls from young cyber-activists for regime change and a walkout of parliament by Bahrain's main Shiite opposition bloc.

The events prompted King Hamad to express sorrow for the deaths, announce a ministerial probe and pledge to press ahead with reforms, in an address to the tiny Gulf state facing Iran across the Gulf that is ruled by his Sunni family.

The Islamic National Accord Association which has 18 seats in the 40-member house earlier announced it had "suspended its membership" in parliament over the killings of the Shiite demonstrators.

The decision came because of "the deterioration in security and the negative and brutal way in which (authorities) dealt with the protesters, killing two of them," bloc member MP Khalil al-Marzooq said.

Fadel Salman Matrouk was shot dead in front of a hospital on Tuesday where mourners gathered for the funeral of Ali Msheymah who died of his wounds after police dispersed a protest in a village east of Manama on Monday, he said.

In Iran, the regime is calling for the heads of opposition leaders - they want them executed.



The members of Parliament calling for the blood of members of the opposition, including former President Rafsanjani aren't doing so unless they have the blessings of the mullahs and IRGC, and that's on top of the fact several political prisoners are presumed to have been executed by the regime:

Members of the Iranian parliament issued fiery chants against opposition leaders and former presidential candidates Mehdi Karrubi and Mir Hossein Moussavi.

Press TV aired video Tuesday of lawmakers chanting "Moussavi, Karrubi ... execute them."

Lawmakers also named former President Mohammad Khatami in some of the death chants.

The calls for the leaders' executions come after a particularly deadly month in Iran. At least 66 people were executed in January, according to Iranian media reports. Most of the executions were reportedly carried out for drug offenses, although at least three involved political prisoners, a U.N. statement said.

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is planning a political party, which is sure to raise eyebrows over their ultimate intentions, but forming a political party is preferable to a hostile takeover and imposing their theocratic will over that of the population. Protests there continue, because of the ongoing economic concerns that helped spark the revolution/coup d'etat.

The Algerian PM thinks that the protesters are a small minority that is expressing discontent. I think he's deluding himself if he thinks that a small percentage of his countrymen are satisfied with conditions and he's likely to fall into the same trap that Mubarak did just days ago.

UPDATE:
Video from the Bahraini protests:

Algerian Security Putting Down Protests

Algerian protesters were met with riot police and a very strong police presence:

The demonstrators gathered in May 1 Square, chanting “Bouteflika out!” in reference to President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has ruled Algeria since 1999. Organizers said thousands had taken part, but news agencies gave vastly differing figures, from a few dozen to thousands.

The protesters were hemmed in by thousands of riot police and blocked from embarking on a planned march through the capital. Many were arrested, although there were also conflicting numbers for those detained.

By Saturday afternoon, the square was lined by riot police and armored vehicles and a police helicopter circled overhead. Principal roads into the center of town also remained blocked and far fewer people were on the streets than would be typical on a Saturday.

The Interior Ministry posted a statement on its Web site saying that 250 people had taken part in the protests and that 14 people had been detained and later released, according to Reuters.

Human rights groups however said the number of arrests had been far higher.

The media spokesman for the coordinating committee seeking democratic change in Algeria said that 70 people had been arrested and that about 30 remained in detention. Those detained included the group’s main organizers, as well as human rights activists, union organizers, members of women’s associations and groups formed to track the missing and killed during the civil war in the 1990s.

The Domino Effect Revisited

After the fall of Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, speculation ran rampant as to whether the revolution that overthrew Ben Ali would spread throughout Africa and the Middle East because the conditions, complaints, and socio-economic situations are pervasive throughout the region.

Special concern was focused on Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and even Iran.

The concern about Egypt was especially well placed, and the events over the past three weeks, up to and including the news that the military sent Hosni Mubarak packing into the sunset this morning show that there may be something to the domino effect (or as I put it - a spillover effect).

While the focus has long been on the Middle Eastern regimes, there's a notable lack of democratic regimes in Africa, and countries South of Egypt and Tunisia may be looking at Tunisia and Egypt as a model for their own stand against autocratic, kleptocratic, and otherwise totalitarian regimes. Africans are going to take a good long look at the events of the past two months as a model for their own political discontent.

That includes some of the usual suspects, like Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, and Libya's Mumar Khadafi. In fact, Libya's between a literal rock and hard place as it is sandwiched between Tunisia and Egypt and Khadafi has been stifling the country's development for 41 years.

So, while any number of regimes are necessarily worried about the people rising up against them, including Syria, Bahrain has said that they don't see a domino effect. I'm sure that Mubarak was thinking the same thing up to and including last night's speech - and the abrupt change in government this morning that sent him packing.

If anyone thinks that there can't or wont be a spillover effect, or a domino effect through the region clearly hasn't been paying attention. Jordan and Syria have been trying to take steps to avert a regime change, and Iran's mullahs have already weathered one attempt (and another attempt is likely to receive renewed vigor in light of events in Cairo).

Iran's regime survived the threat posed by the opposition as led by Mirhussein Mousavi because their secret police, the IRGC, and paramilitary force (Basij) wasn't constrained in the way that the Egyptian army was. The Basij was merciless in its oppression and the crackdown was harsh and thorough to the point that it's debatable whether the opposition could attempt another uprising to demonstrate against the Islamist regime in charge.

But other countries in the region aren't in that kind of position. Their regimes aren't nearly as stable or confident in their security forces to quell potential demonstrations. Their leaders aren't as willing to modernize and impose changes necessary to improve the sociopolitical situation, and that is going to lead to more regimes being contested openly.

Egyptians Wonder What Mubarak Is Up To; UPDATE: Mubarak Has Stepped Down

All eyes are on Egypt and no one apparently knows where Mubarak is or who exactly is in charge. The rumor mill is churning furiously.

U.S. officials tell NBC News that they believe vice president is now running Egypt. There are reports Mubarak has left Cairo for a Sinai resort (Sharm el Sheikh). Egypt TV says that the presidency will make an 'important' statement soon. That doesn't sound good for Mubarak and increases the likelihood that the military has stepped in.

NBC News reported Mubarak had left from Almaza military airport with his family, citing a high-ranking official and a security source, and the news was later confirmed by a local government official.

However, the significance of the move was unclear as Mubarak regularly travels to the resort town on the southern tip of the Sinai region, where he has a palace.

Mubarak passed most of his powers to Vice President Omar Suleiman Thursday night, rebuffing the demands of hundreds of thousands of demonstrators that he step down immediately.

Is it possible that the Army got hoodwinked by Mubarak's defiant tone in last night's speech, and they've had enough - especially with the crowds growing even louder and more boisterous since Mubarak decided to essentially replay his speech from last week that was just as tone deaf?

Or has Suleiman decided that if he's already been delegated most of the powers of the presidency, that he might as well take the rest?



The protesters continue marching on government buildings and crowds are overflowing in Tahrir Square.

Demonstrators had coalesced Friday around the state television and radio building in downtown Cairo, while a few hundred protesters standing outside of the presidential palace in the Cairo suburb of Heliopolis had entered into a tense standoff with Mubarak supporters.

The protesters had erupted in anger after the president clung to power in a state address late Thursday night. It was not clear how a solution would be found to end the confrontation between the demonstrators and the ruling elite from Mubarak's National Democratic Party. The military, which has served as the pillar of the modern Egyptian state, now finds itself caught in the middle of the surging antigovernment movement and Mubarak and his loyalists. Until now, Mubarak and his inner circle, who hail from the military's ranks, have commanded their loyalty.

Mubarak had delegated most of his authorities on Thursday to his new vice president, Omar Suleiman, his loyal aide and former intelligence chief, and promised free and fair elections in September, constitutional reforms and an eventual end to emergency law. But for the swelling crowds in central Cairo's Tahrir Square, it was too little, too late after rumors had coursed through the city that the Egyptian president was leaving office.

None of the hundreds of thousands gathered in Tahrir Square have confidence such reforms will happen with Mubarak still in office, even if he just lurks on the sidelines.

Demonstrators began the work of spreading the protest to new sites after Mubarak's address late Thursday and sent out new teams to seal off the state television and radio buildings. By early afternoon Friday, a few thousand protesters surrounded the building.

UPDATE:
Mubarak has stepped down, but who exactly is in charge, and what are their intentions? Saying that he's turned over power to the military is a welcome sign, but that could lead to a military junta, or another chosen military leader, which would be a continuation of decades of military leaders assuming the role of Egyptian leader - Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak were all generals before being elevated to president.

Update at 11:08 a.m. ET: Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators erupted in jubilation in Tahrir Square as vice president Omar Suleiman announces that President Mubarak has resigned and called on the army to "run the affairs of the country."

Update at 11:05 a.m. ET: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has resigne.d Vice President Omar Suleiman said in a brief televised statement. His statement in full: "Hosni Mubarak has waived the office of presidency and told the army to run the affairs of the country. "

Update at 11:03 a.m. ET: Hossam Badrawi, who was recently appointed general secretary of the NDP, resigns saying Egypt needs new parties, Al-Jazeera reports.

UPDATE:
Questions of the day.

Who exactly is in charge?

NYT reports that "with the military in charge, Mr. Suleiman is apparently no longer vice president."

So, which of the generals is making the decisions (or group of generals) and who will be handling the next phase in the transfer of power from Mubarak's regime to a new political situation?

Would this not be considered a junta for at least the interim period until elections are eventually held?

The jubilation is certainly warranted, but it may be short lived if the Army doesn't hold up its end of the bargain with the Egyptian people.

Mubarak Once Again Refuses To Step Down

So much for all the rumors that Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak was going to use his speech today as an opportunity to step down and begin the transition of power to a new regime.

The speech was little more than a rehash of the speech he gave last week. He's busy talking about amending the constitution, which he can abrogate and ignore under his emergency law declaration, so that's not exactly changing the political condition now.

He's again talking about not running for reelection and changing who can run for the position.

In other words, he's continuing to play for time and isn't going to step down.

The crowds in Tahrir Square aren't liking this one bit. Their demands are being completely ignored, and there was no dialogue involved here. This was Mubarak dictating the terms of how the situation will play out by his rules.

To recap, Mubarak intends to stay in power through the elections in September.

When he promised to oversee a peaceful transition of power until September, crowds of protesters erupted in unhappiness if Cairo's Tahrir Square. As he continued to speak, the protesters in Tahrir Square broke into loud chants of: "Leave! Leave! Leave!"

Mr. Mubarak, who said that he would not "listen to diktats coming from abroad," also refused to immediately lift the emergency law that has been in continuous effect since 1981, promising only to clear the way for ending the state of emergency once stability and security is restored.

Let's remind everyone again that Egypt has been under this emergency rule for the entirety of Mubarak's rule, and political and social rights have been repressed every step of the way.

The latest pronouncements aren't changing any of that.

It's about as tone deaf as it gets.

Mubarak has doubled down - since this seems to be a rehash of his last speech.

Now, let's see how the opposition calls.

The wildcard is the army as it always has been.

Egyptian Workers Continue Strike As Protesters Hold Parliament For Second Day

Thousands of workers across Egypt have gone on strike in support of efforts to send Hosni Mubarak packing, including many within the Egyptian middle class. Still, some of those striking are calling for improved economic and social conditions - not necessarily calling for Mubarak's removal:

Al Jazeera correspondents in Cairo reported that thousands of doctors, medical students and lawyers, the doctors dressed in white coats and the lawyers in black robes, marched in central Cairo and were hailed by pro-democracy protesters as they entered Tahrir [Liberation] Square.

The artists syndicate and public transport workers, including bus drivers, also joined the strikes, our correspondents reported.

"It's certainly increasing the pressure on the government here," Al Jazeera's Steffanie Dekker, reporting from Cairo, said.

"I think it's worth making the distinction that the strikes going on are more of an economic nature, they are not necessarily jumping on the bandwagon of the protesters in Tahrir Square.

"Many of them are not actually calling for the president to step down, but fighting for better wages, for better working conditions."

Pro-democracy supporters across the country have meanwhile called for a ten-million strong demonstration to take place after this week's Friday prayers.

There are continued reports that the Egyptian security forces are torturing those it has captured. Some reports indicate that the security forces include the military, which has taken hundreds into custody since the protests began more than two weeks ago. The fear of a crackdown remains looming over the protesters, but the protesters are remaining defiant.

Meanwhile, Wael Ghonim, the Google executive who was jailed for 12 days by the Egyptian authorities, "posted a message on his Twitter page today saying that "I promise every Egyptian that I will go back to my normal life & not be involved in any politics once Egyptians fulfill their dreams.""

UPDATE:
The headlines are hyping that Mubarak may stand down. The BBC headlines that "Egypt protests: Hosni Mubarak 'may be stepping down'". But the report itself offers up only wishful thinking.

A senior member of Egypt's governing party has told the BBC he "hopes" that President Hosni Mubarak will transfer power to Vice-President Omar Suleiman.

Hossan Badrawi, secretary general of the National Democratic Party (NDP), said Mr Mubarak would "most probably" speak to the nation soon.

It comes on the 17th day of protests against Mr Mubarak's 30-year rule.

The Egyptian military has said it is ready to respond to the "legitimate demands of the people".

In a statement on Egyptian state TV, it said the safety and security of the people was paramount.

The last time Mubarak got before the camera, there were reports he was going to announce his resignation. That didn't happen then either.

"Hopes" that he transfers power is a whole lot different than actually jetting off to a life in exile in Jedda or London or wherever former autocrat/kleptocrats go to spend their days (and ill-gotten gains).

This is far from the first time there were rumors or claims that he was going to depart from Egypt's power scene.

Machinations and Maneuvering to Send Mubarak Packing

The demonstrations against Hosni Mubarak are now going on nearly two weeks, and there's no end in sight. US officials continue talks with Egyptian officals on a way to effectuate a peaceful transition away from the Mubarak regime to something different.

The machinations and maneuvering to send Mubarak packing also includes talks between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian government.

The Brotherhood is an outlawed Islamist organization often depicted by the authorities as committed to the overthrow of the secular order in the heart of the Middle East. Official attitudes toward it here have swung between outright repression and reluctant tolerance. But it has remained Egypt’s biggest opposition force against the autocratic rule of President Hosni Mubarak.

After the meeting had started, The Associated Press said that talks included some of the top issues for the opposition — including freedom of the press and the release of those detained since anti-government protests started — as well as agreement to begin setting up a structure to study amending the country’s constitution.

A spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, Gamal Nassar, said the huge and sometimes violent demonstrations that have paralyzed Cairo for 13 days, reverberating around the Middle East, would continue “until the political path can have a role in achieving the aspirations of the protesters” — an apparent reference to their goal of removing Mr. Mubarak.

Mr. Nassar said mediators had brokered the encounter with Mr. Suleiman, who Saturday received public backing from the Obama administration and other Western governments that confirmed him as the West’s choice to guide any transfer of power.

“The brothers decided to enter a round of dialogue to determine how serious the officials are achieving the demands of the people,” Mr. Nassar said. “The regime keeps saying we’re open to dialogue and the people are the ones refusing, so the Brotherhood decided to examine the situation from all different sides.”

Trying to figure out the ultimate goal of the Brotherhood is the biggest problem facing the US and even ordinary Egyptians. The Brotherhood's website and propaganda includes ultimately establishing a caliphate and instituting Islamic law on Egypt. It seeks the elimination of Israel, but depending on who you ask within the group, the group will work within the political process to do so. Some factions within the Brotherhood have spun off to form Islamic terror groups you might be familiar with, including Egyptian Islamic Jihad, al Qaeda, and has inspired the likes of Hamas.

There are even reports that the Brotherhood will accept a continuing Mubarak regime as long as there are significant constitutional reforms.

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood movement accepts that President Hosni Mubarak staying in power is a “safer option” to secure the implementation of constitutional reforms.

“We wanted the president to step down but, for now, we accept this arrangement as long as we feel there is a serious implementation,” Mohamed Saad El-Katatni, a senior leader of the group, said after a meeting between Vice President Omar Suleiman and leaders of some opposition groups.

“It’s safer that the president stays until he makes these amendments to speed things up because of the constitutional powers he holds,” he said in Cairo today.

Because the Brotherhood is more organized than other opposition groups, their decision may allow Mubarak the breathing room to continue limping along and gives the Brotherhood time to prepare for elections in September when they can use the elections to further their goals - which are antithetical to many Egyptians.

So, what are ordinary Egyptians to do?

Well, they're going to continue demonstrating.



And the West will continue hoping that Mubarak takes the hint and resigns with an orderly transition to a caretaker government that will hold elections in a prompt manner. The West, and the US and Israel, will hope that the new government fulfills its obligations under the Camp David Accords and doesn't bring about a wholesale revision/rejection of the Treaty between Egypt and Israel; if that happens, any further peace treaties between Israel and its enemies (those regimes that are still at war with Israel or which are trying to bring about Israel's end) will not happen. That means that the peace process will come to an abrupt end because the treaties will last only as long as the regime in charge and Israel is not about to trade land for a peace that could be over within the blink of an eye.