Rebels Continue Attacks as Turkey Threatens Assad

It's been a bad few days for Bashar al-Assad. First, his forces shot down a Turkish plane over the Mediterranean Sea. Then, NATO issued a statement backing Turkey (one of the member states) and Turkey issued its own statement reminding Turkey that it can and will shoot back if threatened and Syria can't control itself.

Syria knew that they were shooting down the Turkish F-4 jet.

Under new rules of engagement for the Turkish army, “any military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria in a way that may pose a risk or danger will be viewed as a threat and treated as a military target,” he said. Syrian security forces have frequently carried out operations against opposition forces near the border area as part of Assad’s 15- month crackdown.

Turkey’s warning escalates the risk that the civil conflict may draw in Syria’s neighbors. Ties between the former allies have deteriorated as the death toll in Syria mounts. Erdogan has called on Assad to step down and some of the main Syrian opposition groups have operated from Turkish bases.

Now, Assad's forces are finding themselves fighting in and around the capital of Damascus while defections from his military continue.

The fighting around Damascus is a sign that the rebel forces are taking the fight to Assad's loyalists and that they think that they've got sufficient strength to challenge Assad on his home turf.

Video published by activists recorded heavy gunfire and explosions. A trail of fresh blood on a sidewalk in the suburb of Qudsiya led into a building where one casualty was taken. A naked man writhed in pain, his body pierced by shrapnel.

The Syrian state news agency SANA said "armed terrorist groups" had blocked the old road from Damascus to Beirut.

"The clashes led to the killing of tens of terrorists, wounding a large number of them, arresting others and seizing their weapons which included RPG launchers, sniper rifles, machineguns and a huge amount of ammunition," the agency said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported heavy fighting near the Republican Guard headquarters in Qudsiya, and in the Damascus suburbs of al-Hama and Mashrou' Dumar, just 9 km (6 miles) outside the capital.

It said 38 civilians and 24 troops had been killed during the day across Syria.

Samir al-Shami, an activist in Damascus, said tanks and armored vehicles were out on the streets of the suburbs and some activists reported that one tank had been blown up.

The British-based Observatory, which has a network of activists across Syria, said security forces and armored vehicles stormed the neighborhood of Barzeh, an opposition toehold inside Damascus, and there were sounds of heavy gunfire.

Assad's loyalists continue to cause trouble in neighboring Lebanon as well.

Perhaps the most important sign that Assad's fortunes are beginning to change in a serious way is that Russian leader Vladimir Putin noted in meetings with Israeli officials that Russia is not obligated to Assad, but that it has interests in Syria.

"We asked Putin for Russia to work more actively to preserve stability in Syria, to prevent biological and chemical weapons from falling into the hands of Hezbollah or other terror groups," the source said. "Putin said that he is not obligated to Assad, but that Russia and Syria have strategic relations."

Russia has to date expressed support for the Assad regime, despite the bloodbath the regime is conducting against his citizens.

During his meeting with President Shimon Peres, Putin discussed the possibility that a Western state would act to bring down the Assad regime in Syria.

"From my experience, one must think about the consequences of an act before doing it," Putin was quoted as saying. "Look what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. With regard to Syria, one must think carefully whether the opposition that will rise to power will be what the West wants it to be, or whether it will end up being totally the opposite."

If Putin is that serious about maintaining strategic relations with Syria, it ought to be putting out feelers to Assad about giving him a golden parachute that would bring about a swift end to his regime. But don't expect that to happen since Syrians aren't likely to look towards Russia for assistance going forward given the Russian regime's longstanding support of Assad as well as distrust of Iran and China for similar reasons.

Russian Intends To Absorb South Ossetia

Forget about all the nonsense that Vlad Putin was spouting off about how Russia's invasion of Georgia was the fault of the US.

The proof is in the pudding. In this case, the facts are that the Russians have every intention of taking Georgian territory as their own. They were not seeking to support a South Ossetia independent of Russia. They want to absorb it as their own.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and the region's leader, Eduard Kokoity, discussed the future of South Ossetia earlier this week in Moscow, South Ossetian parliamentary speaker Znaur Gassiyev said.

Russia will absorb South Ossetia "in several years" or earlier, a position was "firmly stated by both leaders," Mr. Gassiyev said.

In Moscow, a Kremlin spokeswoman said today there was "no official information" on the talks.

The vice speaker of Georgia's parliament, Gigi Tsereteli, said the statement cannot be taken seriously.

"The separatist regimes of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the Russian authorities are cut off from reality," he said in Tbilisi. "The world has already become different and Russia will not long be able to occupy sovereign Georgian territory."

"The regimes of Abkhazia and South Ossetia should think about the fact that if they become part of Russia, they will be assimilated and in this way they will disappear," he added.

Russia used the separatists in South Ossetia and no longer need them. They did what they had to do - create a pretext to get Georgia to crack down on the separatists in order for the Russians to storm in claiming that they're protecting the South Ossetians from Georgian aggression.

This was Russia's take on Anschluss.

UPDATE:
Hot Air also weighs in, and Below the Beltway wonders whether Putin has joined the tin-foil hat brigade in blaming Bush for all that ails the world.

Russia Continues Georgia Invasion Despite Cease Fire

President Bush has announced that the US will send humanitarian aid to Georgia aboard C-17 transport aircraft. Those transport aircraft aren't going to go in alone, as they will likely have fighter escorts and AWACS planes monitoring the Russians at every step.

There are good reasons why the US will not engage in a direct confrontation with the Russians - to avoid a war that could potentially set the whole world ablaze. The US continues to adhere to the same military doctrine from the Cold War that enabled the world to avoid a nuclear conflagration - avoid direct military conflict between Russian (Soviet) and US forces at all costs. Proxy wars are okay, but keep them from getting into direct entanglements.

That's why you're not going to see the US get into a direct war with the Russians. The stakes are simply astronomical should that come to pass.

The US has limited options, but let's be clear here - no matter how much the US provided military training and equipment to the Georgians, the Russians could overwhelm them with sheer numbers, which is exactly what they've done to this point.

This isn't like the US taking on the Russians directly. The Russians exploited the situation in South Ossetia to expand their power at the expense of one of our allies. It hits our prestige and influence in the region, but there are ways to restore the situation and to make Russia think twice.

One - grant membership to the Ukraine. Ukraine tells Russia to pound sand and vacate their base in Sevastopol. It would make the Russians think twice since they'd lose a key Black Sea port, and expose their flank.

Two - grant membership to Georgia. Use that as a means to demand Russia's exit and return status quo ante or else face NATO firepower.

It ups the stakes, but does so in a way that gives Russia an out before shooting starts between NATO/US forces and the Russians. Russia doesn't think much of NATO or Europe and probably think they will not lift a finger to help Georgia. Disabusing them of that thinking is crucial to regional stability of the sort that provides fertile ground for democracies. Russia doesn't like democracies on its borders since they're far more likely to look westward than towards Russia.

The moral relativists and leftists are quick to condemn the US role in this, but excuse the Russians. Funny how that happens (especially when the moral relativists are leftists).

Meanwhile, the Georgians continue to suffer at the hands of the Russians as villages are burned. Cease fire? What cease fire? Russian troops push deeper into Georgia, and appear more than willing and capable of cutting the country in half. If they're looking to engage in a ceasefire, then advancing away from South Ossetia is the wrong direction - they're pushing deeper into Georgia.

Once again, the facts show that Russia had every intention of causing a conflict to erupt in Georgia and use it as a pretext to eliminating a nascent democracy along its borders. You cannot prepare a military action such as the one currently undertaken by the Russians without significant preparations and planning. These moves were decided long ago by Putin and the Russian government.

The BBC plays winners and losers, even though the fighting isn't over, and the situation is still far from decided. However, I would tend to agree that the truth and facts are a loser in all this. The Russians have played the ethnic cleansing and genocide card from the earliest moments of the fighting, but they have steadfastly refused to allow anyone access to the region to see what they've done (or found). The BBC also claims that the Georgians fired indiscriminately on South Ossetia with rockets, which is plausible, but again, who fired first - the South Ossetians who provoked the Georgian response.

That BBC article also posits a few additional possibilities for how the West can thwart or undermine Russian objectives, including telling the Russians they lost their shot at joining the WTO or kick them out of the G-8.

UPDATE:
The first C-17s have landed in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, and there are now reports that the Russians are only minutes away from entering the city. Things could get very hot very quickly. I suspect that the Russians are moving quickly to establish a hold on the city before the US humanitarian aid can get going - since the aid comes in the form of US peacekeepers.

Or, will the Russians claim that the US aren't peacekeepers but a military operation to support their Georgian allies? That's what you can expect, but that is precisely what the Russians have done throughout this whole sorry episode.

Time Announces Person of the Year

This time, they've gone with the practically obvious choice in Vladimir Putin. Putin's doing his best impression of Vladimir Lenin in trying to restore the totalitarian regime that Lenin set in motion.

As for this being his most successful year yet, if you count setting events in motion that will enable Putin to pull strings of Russian politics for years to come by all but annointing his successor and putting himself in a position to govern as Prime Minister, then I'd call that quite successful.

If you think that trying to reduce global conflicts and enhancing Russian security are goals, then he was less than successful. He cut deals with Iran so that when Iran strikes at the West, Russia is hoping to be hit last. It's a devil's deal, and one that will harm Western interests - Russia's included - for a long time to come.

Putin is hoping to resurrect the Russian sphere of influence along its borders, and while it has been successful in the -stans, Eastern Europe wants to hear none of it as they've moved closer to the United States.

Putin, the Palestinians, and Israel

Putin has actually done something sensible for a change. He's downgrading Russia's relationship with Hamas, saying that Fatah and Abbas are the legitimate leaders of the Palestinians.

I know, it's not much, but it does get Russia on the same side of this issue as the US, EU, and Israel. Now, if we could only get everyone to recognize that Fatah is no different than Hamas in its ultimate goal of destroying Israel, we'd be in a much better position.

Still, Russia thinks that the timing is not ripe for making Hamas accept Quartet demands that Hamas recognize Israel and its right to exist.

"Demanding now that Hamas fully accept the quartet's conditions, such as the recognition of Israel, the denunciation of violence against Israel, and the acceptance of all existing agreements is unrealistic at the present stage," Lavrov said Friday in an interview with the Kuwaiti news agency KUNA which was posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry's Web site Saturday Lavrov added that the ruling Palestinian movement could "move gradually toward accepting these conditions."

He criticized unidentified members of the quartet of "trying to influence this process by making excessive demands, excessive at the present stage." After Hamas won parliamentary elections in January, Moscow invited the militant group's leaders to visit Russia despite Israel's objections. At the same time, Russia joined the United States and the EU in demanding that Hamas recognize Israel, abandon violence and acknowledge existing peace pacts with Israel.

Let that sink in a moment. Excessive demands? Are you kidding me? Israel at a minimum must demand nothing less than Hamas recognize Israel's right to exist and a 2-state solution or else all the diplomatic maneuverings is just for show (and yes, I know that most of it is just that). Diplomats love to adjust the situation to suit their own needs, which bears little resemblance to reality.

Demanding such things from Hamas is unrealistic at any stage. At no time going forward will it ever present itself to be realistic. Hamas has no interest in peace with Israel. It seeks its destruction.

No negotiation can go forward unless all sides recognize that Israel's right to exist is inalienable and unalterable. If Hamas or Fatah cannot accept this, then the status quo will continue until such time that Hamas or Fatah either tire of the fight, Israel makes enough concessions to its existence that it can no longer hold the line, or a war in the region alters the facts on the ground.

It really is that simple.

Russia doesn't want to force Hamas to make concessions, which has the effect of putting more conditions on Israel. It is well past time to hold the Palestinians to their obligations and their word - including Hamas. Still, Russia is recognizing that Hamas isn't about to change their stripes anytime soon, which is a bow to reality.

UPDATE:
Also note that the violence between Fatah and Hamas has not abated - 17 people have been killed in fighting in Gaza and the West Bank in just the past month since Hamas took Gaza over.

Jordan wants nothing to do with the Palestinians - and it would not send its military into the West Bank to stabilize the situation. I can't blame them. It's much easier to leave the problem to the Israelis and the Palestinians themselves. Besides, the Jordanians remember Black September and the Palestinian attempt to overthrow the Jordanian government in 1970. They surely don't want to go back down that road and interfere in a Palestinian civil war.

UPDATE:
It's not a secret if it's on the front pages of the Jerusalem Post. The Post reports that Al-Hayat reports Olmert and Abbas are engaged in secret talks that have progressed to the point where final status issues are being worked out.

The source reportedly said that the talks were focusing on the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, the Palestinian refugee issue, West Bank settlements and the future of Jerusalem.

"There were talks on these issues but as yet there has been no breakthrough on any of them," the source was quoted as saying.

I get the feeling that this may have been leaked so that Abbas could claim that he's getting results, further strengthening his claim to lead the Palestinians. This is all part of the jockeying for position with Hamas.

Charges Brought In Litvinenko Murder By Polonium Case

The British investigation into who murdered Alexander Litvinenko has finally yielded some results.

n ex-KGB agent is to be charged in connection with the murder of poisoned former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

A warrant has been issued for the arrest of Moscow-based Andrei Lugovoy, although there is no extradition treaty with Russia.

That last part is key. The British government will not be able to get at Lugovoy because they don't have extradition with Russia. Considering that many believe that the Russian government was behind the murder/assassination of Litvinenko by Polonium 210, there's little chance that Lugovoy would ever be brought before a British court to face the charges.

Lugovoy (or Lugovoi) has been tied to other locations where high levels of Polonium 210 were discovered, including hotels and restaurants around London, though one has to wonder about the motive and rationale for using such a unique poison to kill Litvinenko.

Truthdig notes a BBC report that shows Lugovoi is defiant and claims to be a victim of the poisoning, not the perpetrator.

Others commenting: AJ Strata, and A Second Hand Conjecture.

Mysterious Incidents Connected to Russia Continue Piling Up...

...as does the speculation as to whether Russia's Vlad Putin is behind the murders and poisonings of critics, rivals, and potential threats to his power.

The latest incident is the thallium poisoning of two American women.

The U.S. Embassy on Wednesday confirmed that two American women have been hospitalized in Moscow for possible thallium poisoning.

The spokesman identified the women as Marina Kovalevsky and her daughter, Yana, but did not give further details. He said they were hoping to return home soon, but it was not immediately clear when they might be able to do so.

Citing unidentified medical authorities, the Interfax news agency later reported that the women had been discharged from the hospital in the morning and left for the United States in the afternoon. The U.S. Embassy could not confirm the report.

The hospital where they have been treated since falling ill on Feb. 24 said Wednesday morning that they were in moderately serious condition. Moscow's top public health doctor, Nikolai Filatov, was quoted by the RIA-Novosti news agency as saying that thallium poisoning had been confirmed.

It's unclear at this time what made these two women the target of a poisoning. This is an issue to continue keeping tabs on.

Dropping Like Flies

Yet another critic of Russia's Putin has died under mysterious circumstances.

Ivan Safronov, the military affairs writer for Kommersant, died Friday after falling from a fifth-story window in the stairwell of his apartment building in Moscow, officials said. His body was found by neighbors shortly after the fall.

With prosecutors investigating the death, Kommersant and some other media suggested foul play.

"The suicide theory has become dominant in the investigation, but all those who knew Ivan Safronov categorically reject it," Kommersant said in an article Monday.

He literally fell to his death. His friends and those who knew him believe that it was a murder meant to look like a suicide.

Another critic, who recently appeared on NBC's Dateline, was found shot to death.

Paul Joyal, a former Senate Intelligence Committee staffer, was shot in his driveway just four days after he appeared in a "Dateline NBC" segment that was critical of Putin and his government.

After it was reported that Joyal's wallet was stolen during the shooting, some questions of a broader conspiracy waned; but Joyal's son Alex showed his father's billfold to a reporter from The Post, as Eric Rich writes this morning. Joyal was shot following a meeting with Putin's former KGB boss, Oleg Kalugin at the International Spy Museum, where Kalugin is a board member. The family refuses to speculate on the motive of the shooting.

This could be nothing but a serious of coincidences resulting in people who may undermine or embarass Putin's regime turning up dead. Or not.

This makes the third such critic to die under strange circumstances and doesn't count the mysterious poisoning of other rivals, like Viktor Yushchenko. Alexander Litvinenko was killed by exposure to Polonium 210.

The body count keeps piling up around the world, and the tie that binds appears to be the Kremlin up to its old tricks.

UPDATE:
Jammie Wearing Fool notes that criticizing Putin is bad for your health.

It certainly seems that way. That has a chilling effect on free speech and the press, though some are pressing the matter: The paper that Safronov wrote for, has an update on the now criminal investigation of Safronov's death. Does his death have something to do with an expose he was going to run on arms sales to the Middle East?

The Taganka prosecutor’s office in Moscow has initiated a criminal investigation on the forcible suicide of Kommersant journalist Ivan Safronov, who died under unknown circumstances last Friday when he fell from a window in the stairway of the Khrushchev-era five-story building in which he lived. The police and prosecutor initially characterized his death as suicide. Safronov, who turned 51 last month, wrote about the army and space. It is known that he was preparing a publication on Russian arms deliveries to the Middle East that could have caused a major scandal.

Good for the paper to push forward despite the fact that it is putting other journalists in harm's way.

Cop Out

Did Time magazine have trouble trying to figure out the person of the year and voted for everyone, which is another way of saying that they voted for no one?

Here are a couple of other people who could have been chosen as Person of the Year for their contributions and/or impact on the world:

Charles Schumer - for being the money man behind the Democrat return to power in the Senate.

Nancy Pelosi - for managing to herd cats and knock off the GOP in the House.

George Bush - embattled and still fighting the war on terror as he thinks it must be fought, despite the lagging popularity of the war and the negative view of him personally.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - the genocidal intentioned thug in charge in Iran. Run Holocaust denial conferences? Check. Call for destruction of Israel? Check. Work towards obtaining nuclear weapons? Check. Watching the UN flail about uselessly? Priceless.

Ariel Sharon - his policy of disengagement meant withdrawing Israel from Gaza and how do the Palestinians respond to this action, and Sharon's subsequent incapacitating stroke? They start a war, and are soon joined by Hizbullah who drags Lebanon into a war.

Nasrallah - the Hizbullah thug in charge who unilaterally pulled Lebanon into a devastating war with Israel and who now seeks to take over Lebanon by trying to take down the Siniora government.

The Insurgent - not a person, but a group whose successes aren't measured on the battlefield (because they haven't had any) but by the media's ability to turn their continued existence into a sign that the US has lost a war in Iraq.

Vladamir Putin - the former head of the KGB may be returning to his roots, going after political threats the old fashioned way. Assassinations and intimidations, including the very public death of former KGB spy Alexander Litvinenko.

The Next Polonium Victim

Mario Scaramella has been contaminated with significant amounts of Polonium 210. He would be the second person to be so-contaminated. Alexander Litvinenko was the first and he's now dead. Firedoglake wonders just what kind of form was used in the poisoning and goes into the physiological reactions and wonders whether Litvinenko was injected with the polonium rather than consuming or inhaling it. Her reasoning is pretty persuasive based on the amounts of radioactive material used and the fact that polonium 210 is primarily an alpha emitter.

So, who exactly was behind this? Putin and/or rogue elements within the Russian government are leading contenders, and this could be a very public way of sending messages to opponents of the Russian government.

AJ Strata and Pajamas Media are on top of the situation with analysis and updates.

UPDATE:
The Guardian says that Scaramella does not show any signs of radiation poisoning.

The Italian academic, who met the ex-KGB man on the day he was allegedly poisoned, tested positive yesterday for a "significant quantity" of the radioactive substance, polonium-210, which is believed to have killed Mr Litvinenko.

But doctors at London's University College Hospital said today that preliminary test results carried out on him showed no sign of radiation toxicity.

Curious. Very curious.

Technorati: Litvinenko, polonium 210, Alexander Litvinenko, kgb, poisoning, politics, Mario Scaramella.

The Million Dollar Question

What exactly is going on here. Who killed Alexander Litvinenko using a radioactive isotope, Polonium 210? It was apparently sprayed on the sushi Litvinenko was eating, but no one knows who did it or why. There are lots of fingers pointing in the direction of one Vladamir Putin, but no one really knows for sure. Heck, it could have been an accident for all we know.

All that is known is that the number of people exposed to isotope continues to grow. Just today, an Italian journalist was confirmed to have been exposed as well:

Italian academic Mario Scaramella has tested positive for the same toxin that killed former Russian spy, Britain's Sky Television News reported Friday.

Scaramella, who was one of the last people to see former Soviet spy Alexander Litvinenko before he fell ill, tested positive for a significant amount of polonium-210, Sky said.

The academic had come from Rome to meet with Litvinenko at a sushi bar in London on Nov. 1 -- the day the former intelligence agent first reported the symptoms that ultimately led to his death at a central London hospital.

Several airliners have been grounded and thousands of people have been contacted in relation to possible contamination. The investigation continues to grow, and authorities around the world are looking at who may have been behind the poisoning along with the motivation to conduct such an attack.

The isotope does not occur naturally, and it takes certain kinds of specialized equipment to produce.

Litvinenko's autopsy is underway in London, and experts are trying to determine the exact cause of death and the examiners were wearing protective clothing and radiation levels were being monitored constantly during the examination. Hot Air has more.

So, who was behind the attack? Rogue elements in the former KGB? That isn't good news, but that's also just one of a whole host of bad actors who might have been behind the attack. Another possibility is that Litvinenko or his companions accidentally poisoned themselves.

Mr. Epstein figures there are two possible ways Litvinenko got poisoned. One is that he was murdered when "someone surreptitiously sprinkled particles of Polonium 210 in his food." The second hypothesis is that it was an accident, in which "the particles leaked out of a faulty container of Polonium 210 that he (or his associates) were carrying."

Mr. Epstein reckons that "a former KGB agent might have a interest in obtaining a smuggled sample of Polonium 210 for a host of reasons, including arranging a sale to an intermediary, establishing the bona fides of someone claiming to have access to a Russian nuclear facility, or investigating the international black market in nuke components." He writes that according to Mario Scaramella, an Italian defense consultant who had lunch with Litvinenko at the Itsu Sushi buffet the day he was poisoned, " Litvinenko's past interests, included the ‘smuggling of nuclear material out of Russia' for the KGB. If true, the possibility that Litvinenko had a vial of Polonium 210 in his possession cannot be precluded."

With any damaged container, Mr. Epstein writes, particles can leak onto clothes,"such as a sleeve or handkerchief, and be ingested. The accident hypothesis would further account the radiation spreading it to multiple locations." He concludes by noting that at this point, "both the murder and accident hypothesis are equally nefarious — and viable." What struck us about the point, aside from the fact that Mr. Epstein is one of the shrewdest analysts around, is that as he begins to sketch the case, this mystery is not merely one of those British crimes we all love to read about in Agatha Christie or Conan Doyle but a situation in real life that provides a window into why the stakes in the Middle East are so high.

The investigators are obviously going to be looking at this case from all angles. I frankly don't know what to make of the whole thing. If you want a good roundup of the basic facts of this case, see here.

Others blogging: AJ Strata, Decision 08, and Ace of Spades.

UPDATE:
The Polonium 210 apparently has been traced back to a Russian nuclear power plant. Someone better explain how the material was removed from the facility, because if they could manage to get out this stuff, there's no telling what else might be smuggled out. The current tally of sites that have screened positive include 10 locations in England and five planes.

Allah has updated his coverage to note that one of Litvinenko's relatives has also tested positive. Not good at all.

Lorie Byrd at Wizbang also comments that the FSB is the new KGB. I'd suggest that the old KGB never went away; it was simply renamed and recast.

UPDATE:
Make that the wife who tested positive.

Technorati: Litvinenko, polonium 210, Alexander Litvinenko, kgb, poisoning, politics, Mario Scaramella.

Incremental Movements

Is the release of Hamas parlimentarians somehow connected to a possible deal on Gilad Shalit's release? I surely hope not. It's a bad deal for Israel any way you cut it. Well, Yossi Beilin seems to think that holding those Hamas members is a bargaining chip. I'd say that it's just desserts for a terror group infrastructure dedicated to Israel's destruction, and whose charter is full of statements calling for Israel's destruction.

Hamas and Fatah have finally figured out a way to comprise a unity government. Big deal. Same terrorists, same genocidal intent, but new approach to getting the economic and territorial limitations lifted by increasing European pressure on the Israelis. Hamas says that the release will help form the unity government. Again, big deal.

Nasrallah says that Goldwasser and Regev will not be released until Samir Qantar is released. So who is Qantar?

Qantar was captured during an attack in 1979 on northern Israel by a Palestinian terror group in which an Israeli policeman, another man and his four-year-old daughter were killed.

Israel says that there's no chance Qantar gets released. Lest we forget, UN SCR 1701 calls for the unconditional release of Goldwasser and Regev. I'd say trying to barter those two soldiers for a terrorist isn't going to go over well, although I'm sure the diplomats are just peachy with the fact that they've got Hizbullah pontificating.

The UN reports that Israel has made significant progress in withdrawing from Lebanon. No word from the UN on disarming Hizbullah. The UN also warns that the Palestinians are in danger of economic collapse. The Palestinians have the power to improve their situation pretty quickly, starting with the unconditional release of Shalit and the renunciation of their calls to destroy Israel. Hamas can agree to those terms and still get away with the ongoing violence against Israel because Hamas simply can disregard what it says, but it can't even pay lip service to entertaining that idea because they're so tied to the destruction of Israel that nothing else matters, even the survival and wellbeing of other Palestinians.

The Egyptians have uncovered another weapons cache meant for Gaza. Go figure. Palestinian terrorists have been trying to do everything imaginable to obtain weapons and resupply, and getting them via Egypt is the closest option.

This is a curious report Russia's Vladamir Putin decries Iran's attacks on Israel - the verbal attacks, and stops short of calling for sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program machinations.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Regev, Goldwasser, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, hezbollah, lebanon, syria.

Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell, Part VIII

CNN is being used by Hizbullah to spread its message, and no one in CNN thought that odd? Actually, that's standard operating procedure for CNN, which had no problem trading access for journalistic integrity in Iraq and who knows where else. Newsbusters has the details. It isn't pretty. And one shouldn't think that this is limited to CNN. Other news outlets operating in Lebanon are similarly uncritically touting the Hizbullah line without saying as much.

You can bet that the media bias from these stories has an effect on world opinion and the opinions of those diplomats and politicians who are following the issue closely and are trying to determine foreign policy. If they're utilizing these media reports, they'd be coming to the precisely wrong conclusions. Rob at Say Anything has more. A transcript showing just how in bed CNN was with Hizbullah is here.

No one wants to commit troops to an international peacekeeping force, including the US. The US doesn't want to do it, and other European nations are reluctant to send troops because they are stretched too thin with committments elsewhere. That, and they know that Hizbullah has no problem targeting peacekeepers as easily as Israelis. There's also concern that the peacekeepers would be seen as allies to Israel, which is understandable. Israel is a country defending its very existence against Islamic terrorists. Many of the European countries are similarly fighting Islamic terrorists abroad and at home.

So, who would that leave as potential peacekeepers? Middle Eastern countries that have no relations with Israel or would conspire to assist the terrorists destroy Israel? China? Russia? That international peacekeeping force seems far less international when you start excluding countries that have interests antithetical to Israel's existence, or whose interests are something less than honorable here.

Has Hamas thrown in the towel? While some reports suggest that it looks like Hamas is on the verge of accepting a plan proposed by the Egyptians that would save Hamas from the war that they craved so badly, other reports suggest Hamas will not agree to any deal unless they get prisoner exchanges up front. From Ha'aretz:

All groups in Gaza, including Hamas, would now accept a cease-fire deal with Israel which would include releasing Gilad Shalit, according to the Palestinian Agriculture Minister, who also heads the coordinating committee of Palestinian organizations there.

Ibrahim Al-Naja said the factions were ready to stop the Qassam rocket fire if Israel's ceased all military moves against the Palestinian factions in Gaza. They are also ready to release Shalit in exchange for guaranteeing the future release of Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas leaders did not confirm this report yesterday, but if it is true, then this is the first time that Hamas has indicated its acceptance of the Egyptian proposal to solve the crisis.

Egypt's proposal did not include an Israeli commitment to the immediate release of Palestinian prisoners, only guarantees for their future release.

Al-Naja said the Palestinian faction's conditions were that the cease-fire would be mutual and Israel would stop all its actions against the Palestinians.

He also said Israel must provide clear guarantees to free veteran prisoners, minors and female prisoners incarcerated in Israel.

I'm not sure Israel would agree to these terms, but that Hamas is even proposing terms that are at least worthy of a second look shows that the Israelis have taught at least some Hamas a lesson. The problem is that Meshaal isn't going to like this one bit, and they'll claim victory for outlasting the Israelis, despite all the damage done by the Palestinians to their own cause. Dan Riehl also notes that Hamas is talking the talk for the first time because they're getting their butts kicked in a huge way. If he had his way, he'd want to see the Israelis eliminate Hizbullah and Hamas in toto, and not wait for a ceasefire. You do not make deals with terrorist groups that seek to annihilate you.

Secretary of State Rice is meeting with Prime Minister Olmert today, and you can be sure that they'll be discussing a timeline for how long the Israelis think they'll need to eliminate the Hizbullah threat from Northern Israel and what they're looking for in the long term.

Bloggers to check in with for daily updates are Blue Crab Boulevard, Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, Hot Air, Jameel at the Muqata, Greetings from the French Hill, R'Lazer, and Live from an Israeli Bunker. Check back with them regularly for updates.

One Israeli was killed and 48 wounded in rocket attacks today. Some in the media are wondering whether the ongoing violence will somehow temper the Israeli reaction and break their will to survive against the existentialist threat, though they're not framing the question that way. They simply want to know if the politicians in Israel will cave to international calls for a ceasefire. And yet, it appears that the current crisis has united Israelis in a way that hasn't happened in more than 30 years.

Israel continues to grind away at Hizbullah, killing more than 40 Hizbullah in and around Bint Jbiel. They're also destroying the rocket launchers used by Hizbullah to hit targets inside Israel, including Haifa.

Several Israelis thus far have been hit by 'friendly fire,' and the IDF is examining whether the helicopter that crashed yesterday was hit by an artillery barrage. Another potential friendly fire incident was averted in Bint Jbiel when controllers realized a mistake in coordinates being used by a UAV to direct fire.

UPDATE:
Via Ha'aretz, the first US aid shipments to Lebanon are arriving today. Israel will let the UN airlift humanitarian aid into Lebanon as well. So why is Saudi Arabia pledging $500 million? To offset the Iranian influence. Sunni v. Shi'ite. This conflict is revealing not for its renewal of the Israeli-Arab conflict, but for how Sunni and Shi'a governments throughout the Middle East and beyond are influencing the events.

Don't bring a knife to a gunfight and expect the gunslinger to put down his gun to engage you with a knife. Yet, that's exactly what Eugene Robinson thinks Israel is doing. He thinks Israel is engaging in disproportionate force against Hizbullah. His proof? Lots of buildings and infrastructure damaged or destroyed, along with civilian casualties. Sorry, but that doesn't cut it. Hizbullah is part of the Lebanese government, controls Southern Lebanon with a tight grip, and purposefully hides in plain sight - putting its military resources squarely within residential areas so as to invite civilian casualties in an Israeli reprisal. Hizbullah came to a gunfight with a knife, and now hopes that the world will call on Israel to put down its gun to deal with it in a knifefight. Sorry, but Nasrallah doesn't know the Chicago rules. And he and his terrorist minions are going to pay dearly for that miscalculation. Even Richard Cohen (yes, that Richard Cohen) gets it.

Perhaps Robinson should get his news from sources other than media outlets enthralled with getting footage in Beirut chaparoned by Hizbullah who are pushing their agenda at the cost of the facts. Quite a few of those buildings, and many of those so called civilians were anything but civilian targets. They were Hizbullah buildings, Hizbullah minions, and their infrastructure was going up in smoke because the IDF pinpointed where they were operating.

Israel will continue fighting to eliminate Hizbullah as a threat. As it must. And the world continues to look at an international peacekeeping force, though how it will look and be composed are up in the air. Are Western Democratic countries too nice to win?

What if Israel's caution about casualties among its own soldiers and Lebanese civilians has demonstrated to Hezbollah and Hamas that as long as they can duck and cover when the missiles fly and the bombs fall, they can survive and possibly even thrive?

What if Israel has every capability of achieving its aim, but cannot unleash itself against a foe more dangerous, more unscrupulous, more unprincipled and more barbaric than even the monstrous leaders of the Intifada it managed to quell after years of suicide attacks?

And as for the United States, what if we have every tool at our disposal to win a war - every weapons system we could want manned by the most superbly trained military in history - except the ability to match or exceed our antagonists in ruthlessness?

Is this the horrifying paradox of 21st century warfare? If Israel and the United States cannot be defeated militarily in any conventional sense, have our foes discovered a new way to win? Are they seeking victory through demoralization alone - by daring us to match them in barbarity and knowing we will fail?

Are we becoming unwitting participants in their victory and our defeat? Can it be that the moral greatness of our civilization - its astonishing focus on the value of the individual above all - is endangering the future of our civilization as well?

So, if the dovish approach doesn't work, the hawkish approach doesn't work, what are the alternatives?
There are no good alternatives. Stoic acceptance of terror attacks wont cut it, not when the threat of unconventional terror attacks with WMD is increasingly likely especially as Iran and North Korea pursue and extend their WMD capabilities. It doesn't leave any good options, which means one must choose the least bad option. To me, that's taking the fight to the terrorists.

John Podhoretz asks the question that keeps lurking. Can Israel win in the face of inflicting high casualties?

UPDATE:
As I first noted yesterday, Israel has more than its fair share of refugees from the fighting. More than 1 million Israelis are living in bunkers and bomb shelters because of the Hizbullah attacks (Israeli Ambassador Ayalon on Whiffleball with Matthews) A video report from Martin Fletcher has the details on the Israeli refugee situation (can access from here - follow link to Israel handling refugees and the recitation of the 300,000 comes about a minute+ into the video).

Meanwhile, Israel is fully in control of Bint Jbeil, and claims that many residents of Northern Israel will no longer come under fire of low trajectory rocket attacks, and that the IDF will soon surpress high trajectory rocket attacks.

The IDF Northern Command reported relative quiet on Tuesday, with few exchanges of fire. They posit that the deployment of artillery, infantry and armored brigades, which created "a finger hold" in southern Lebanon, is having the desired effect. IDF sources say that forces are working in a ways that utilize their relative advantage – they operate primarily at night, for example. According to the sources, Hizbullah casualties are very high.

At least one senior Hizbullah member operating in the Maroun al-Ras/Bnit Jbeil area was killed Tuesday as a result of IDF activities in the area. An IDF source told ynet that the operative was staying in a house serving as an operations room. He further reported that, while searching the houses, forces found many weapons, including light arms, Katyushas, and various kinds of missiles.

This is good news. Also good news: Israel terminated a Hizbullah regional commander. More buildings were targeted in Beirut, and while you can be sure that Hizbullah and some in the media will claim that only civilians were targeted, the fact is that Hizbullah is operating in these residential areas and that their infrastructure is getting hammered. The IDF is also attacking Hizbullah's communications infrastructure.

For a change, I agree with Ahmadinejad - those that caused this conflict will pay.

Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, addressed the current crisis on the Israeli-Lebanese border, saying, "The middle eastern storm is approaching.

Ahmadinejad added that "those who created the winds of the storm will pay the consequences." (AFP)

Only I think that my definition of who caused the conflict and his differs. Iran will suffer for its terrorist funding and support, and its role in spreading jihadis throughout the Middle East, turning Lebanon into a warzone, and its ongoing calls for Israel's annihilation.

The Saudis, meanwhile, continue flapping their jaws. They're worried that the situation might turn into a wider war. Here's a suggestion - have the Saudis stop funding Islamic terrorists and we might just avoid that wider war. They're also concerned about Lebanese sovereignty. Perhaps the Lebanese should have paid more attention to that subject before they ceded South Lebanon to Hizbullah and made the terrorist group part of the government. While that might have kept the country from sliding into yet another civil war, letting the terrorists and their backers in Syria and Iran pull strings meant that Lebanon was not fully in control of its territory - a violation of UN SCR 1559.

Syria has raised the alert level of its military, quite possibly because Hizbullah has been getting pasted by Israel. The Syrians may be weighing how to intervene, but they've got to know that if they do so, they'll receive a harsher pounding than the Israelis are dishing out to Hizbullah. Maybe they're hoping that if Israel does attack Syrian forces, it will get Iran into the act - unleashing one of their surprises. Either way, Israel has to honor the threat and work along the Syrian/Lebanese border to make it next to impossible for Syria to intervene within Lebanon.

In a minor flying pig moment, Russia's Vladamir Putin says the conflict in Lebanon shows the ineffectiveness of the UN.

UPDATE:
Olmert says that Israel has the stamina for a long fight. That remains to be seen. I hope that's true, but one shouldn't lay your strategy and tactics on hope. You need something more substantial than hope. The US says that the Israeli window for their ongoing efforts in Lebanon is 10-14 days. I doubt that's sufficient to finish the job, but it might give Northern Israel a break for a while - although it will do nothing to ensure the release of the Israeli soldiers being held by Hizbullah.

The UN continues to show that it is a failure. They claim that Israel used disproportionate force in Gaza. I refer you to the aforementioned Chicago rule - never bring a knife to a gunfight, especially when you're the one starting the fight with a knife. Hamas, that means you lose. At least the UN isn't trying to claim that Israel has no right to defend itself; a tact that it has tried in the past.

Iran says that it will protect Syria. That's nice, but who's going to protect Iran? It's not like Israel's enemies have a successful track record of beating Israel in any conflict.

UPDATE:
In another NBC video from yesterday's news, there's a curious scene. At 1:07-1:08 into the video featuring Richard Engel, there's an appearance of uncut US currency at what Engel describes as a financial center in Sidon. Doesn't that seem strange to anyone else? It did to some other folks. Why would uncut US currency be present at a bombed out financial services site? It's not like those uncut bills would be there unless someone was, ummm, what's the word I'm looking for, counterfeiting US currency?

There's good reason to believe that Hizbullah is using counterfeit bills to fund their operations, and the US Secret Service has been keeping tabs on this development as well. One has to believe that the Israelis just did the US a big favor in breaking a counterfeiting ring in addition to eliminating a source of funding for Hizbullah.

The NYT had an expose on counterfeit supernotes and among those involved and suspected of producing them: North Korea and Iran. One theory has Iran producing notes via intaglio presses obtained by the Shah from the US, and now passes them on to Lebanon via Syria.

It's always good to follow the money...

UPDATE:
Hizbullah is threatening attacks beyond Haifa, even as they say they were surprised by the Israeli response to their brazen invasion of Israel, the killing of eight Israeli soldiers, and their taking of two others into Lebanon. They have the audacity to say that they wont accept humiliating terms of a ceasefire? Gee, getting none of your demands isn't humiliation, but reality. You started a war you couldn't hope to win, you and your terror backers miscalculated bigtime, and you can still get out with your lives if you simply hand over the two Israeli soldiers and disarm. Hizbullah can even call that a victory. They survived longer than Israel's enemies did in 1967.

Meanwhile, four UN soldiers were killed when an Israeli airstrike hit a UN outpost. Israel is investigating the matter. Expect the usual suspects to use this incident as grounds to call Israel to heel and stop their operations against Hizbullah.

Some are also throwing accusations that Israelis are utilizing human shields in their operations. Never mind that we repeatedly see Hizbullah and Hamas operating in civilian areas, these human rights groups are complaining about Israel and aren't complaining about Hamas or Hizbullah.

Israeli troops entered Gaza City. The IDF also surrounded a building in Ramallah. Rockets are still being fired into Israel.

The counterfeiting story is being discussed at LGF.

Others blogging the conflict: Jeff Weintraub, Boker Tov, Boulder, Gates of Vienna, Wizbang (and here), Blackfive, Powerline, The Jawa Report (and here), and AJ Strata.

UPDATE:
Texas Rainmaker wonders whether he's been operating under the wrong defintion of peace all these years based on the kind of pablum coming from various circles these days. Dr. Sanity notes that Israel's actions have had a clarifying effect on separating the decent Left from the indecent Left.

Others blogging: Jihad Watch, Pajamas Media, Soccer Dad, and Crossing the Rubicon2.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Rains, Summer, cavaliers, wrath, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, lebanon, syria.

Running With the Dogs of War

Hizbullah continues to rain katuysha rockets down on Israel from Kiryat Shimona and Safed to Ma'alot. More than a dozen Israelis were injured. The power grid in Northern Israel is also taking hits.

Lebanon states that 61 have been killed in the Israeli counterattacks.

The situation in Gaza isn't much better, as kassam rockets continue to be shot into Israel.

Hizbullah and Hamas leaders are in hiding - because they know they're marked for death. Always exhorting others to commit atrocities in their name, they go into hiding when you're playing for all the marbles. That speaks volumes.

Meanwhile, the EU is worried that the conflict might draw Syria into the fighting. Um, these diplomats refuse to recognize the obvious fact that Syria is already in the fight - they're using their proxies in Hamas and Hizbullah to do their dirty work for them, not to mention are providing sanctuary to their leadership. Israel has thus far refrained from directly attacking Syria, though they have buzzed Assad's palace last week. President Bush is telling Israel to try to minimize civilian casualties. Israel is doing just that - they aren't carpet bombing all of Southern Lebanon and they're using extraordinary restraint in going after the terrorists who are embedded in Beirut and much of Southern Lebanon.

The primary bloggers to check with are Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, and Hot Air. Check back with them regularly for updates.

UPDATE:
Jay Tea makes some excellent points about the fallacy of believing that stability in the Middle East is a good thing. Glenn Reynolds notes that the Israeli counteroffensive against Hizbullah may pay long term dividends to the Lebanese who want to rid their country of the Syrian and Hizbullah influences once and for all. Ed Morrissey notes the Saudis refusal to blame Israel for the current conflict. It's something I had commented on yesterday - the Saudis have an interest in countering Iranian designs on the Middle East and Hizbullah is their proxy.

Discarded Lies notes that Israel has hit Hizbullah offices in Beirut. More interesting is the fact that a Hamas leader fled Egypt and headed to Syria. Why would they think they'd be any safer in Syria than Egypt? From the looks of it, Egypt wants nothing to do with the terrorists and wants to stay out of this conflict.

Israellycool has a thorough update of events, and notes that things in Gaza are still quite busy, despite the attention being focused on the North. Dan Riehl also has a roundup.

So what are the Lebanese thinking of all this violence going on in their country as a result of Hizbullah's deathwish at the hands of Israel? WorldNet Daily reports that Lebanon's Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is blaming Syria and Iran for ordering the attacks. Carl in Jerusalem notes that the Lebanese are starting to put together a plan for asserting Lebanese government control over the South - wresting the power from Hizbullah. Israel is providing the muscle to give the Lebanese government the means to do just that.

For more analysis, see Israel Insider. Meryl Yourish has a roundup of world opinion and isn't holding back on the explicit language aimed at the likes of Russia and other countries who are calling on Israel to restrain itself.

UPDATE:
Pathetic. That's the only word I can think of for this story about how the 'misery index' in Gaza has gotten worse since Israel retaliated against Hamas for invading Israel through a 300 foot tunnel, attacking an Israeli checkpoint, killing two Israeli soldiers and taking Gilad Shalit back into Israel. All of the misery endured by Gazans is a direct result of those Gazans choosing to 1) elect Hamas as their government knowing full well that Hamas sought to annihilate Israel and that Israel would defend itself; 2) have no problem with Hamas operating inside civilian areas giving them shelter, aid, and comfort while Israel attacks Hamas. The misery index would improve significantly with one single action on the part of Hamas - releasing Shalit, but that simple action is all but impossible for Hamas and they'd rather see Gaza reduced to rubble than admit defeat.

Meanwhile, there's no corresponding story about the misery index for those tens of thousands of Israelis who are under fire from the rocket and missile barrages from both Gaza and Southern Lebanon by Hizbullah and Hamas. More than 100 have been injured in just the past day. Hundreds of rockets have been fired into Israel, and Hizbullah threatens larger and deeper strikes.

UPDATE:
Was one of Hizbullah's leaders killed in an Israeli strike? Stop the ACLU has details although Hizbullah claims he's alive. Meanwhile, the rockets are flying furiously (with more Israeli casualties), as are the threats. Israeli forces state that the Hizbullah rocket ranges are longer than they originally considered. That means more of Israel can be threatened by the terrorists. More than 200,000 Israelis are now in bomb shelters hunkering down.

Drudge is reporting the following:

Syria UN Ambassador tells TIME: Hezbollah could attack Israel nuke sites, 'could have radiation spread all over region'...

You can bet that Israel has that threat considered along with the proper response to such actions.

Israel's nuclear program is centered on Dimona in the Negev Desert. There might be other facilities in Israel, but if Dimona is hit, the people most likely to be affected aren't necessarily Israelis, but prevailing winds will just as likely take it into Jordan. Hizbullah is definitely playing with fire and making threats that it should know will provoke such a massive response that Hizbullah will cease to exist.

Meanwhile, the attacks seem to be eroding support for Hizbullah in Lebanon. The Big Pharoah thinks this is a good thing. So do I.

This is funny. Syria's ambassador says that they want to stay out of this fight. They might want to be start by cutting off their support for Hamas and Hizbullah, as well as hand over the Hamas leadership who have cozy relationships with Assad - and that's for starters.

And President Bush rejects Lebanon's call for a ceasefire. We have a spine sighting once again. Putin, on the other hand, is calling on all sides to end the bloodshed. Now, if Russia was in Israel's place, Lebanon would have been turned into rubble, along with Syria and Iran. Hypocrite. Of course, he's doing it with the geopolitics in mind - he needs to sell Russian weapons to the Middle East and needs oil. He can't do that if he pissed off Iran and Syria, the two countries behind the provocations by Hamas and Hizbullah.

UPDATE:
Kim Priestap at Wizbang has a good post, and cites Krauthammer in the process.

UPDATE:
Austin Bay has a good roundup of the strategic implications of the conflict in Lebanon and its implications for Tehran and Damascus, as well as Beirut. Big Lizards wonders at the implications of whether Iran was directly involved in the rocket barrage that hit Haifa. Would US agreements with Israel require the US to deal with Iran in the immediate future (hours and days) rather than short term (weeks/months) down the road. He's hoping the DoD has contingency plans figured out for this. So do I. He also wonders whether this is a way for Iran to test the Israeli leadership, which has little experience dealing with such matters, unlike Sharon who had tremendous military experience including leading daring tactical victories against the Egyptian army in 1973.

Tigerhawk has a good roundup, and notes that the Haifa rocket attack may not have been sanctioned by Hizbullah leaders, which suggests that their leadership isn't communicating with their field operatives very well. Another possibility is plausible deniability for facing down the consequences, although some Israelis (as noted before) seem to think that the Iranians themselves were behind the attack.

And some folks in the Arab world get it, and know that Israel is showing extreme restraint - to the point of bending over backwards. That's not necessarily a good thing, not when you need to put down Hizbullah and Hamas like the rabid dogs they are. One Egyptian general who was up close and personal when Israel ripped the Egyptian, Syrian and Jordanian armor to shreds in 1967 (and throw a few soldiers from other Arab countries in for good measure) knows that Hizbullah has signed its deathwish only if Israel decides to open the can of whoopass it has prepared for such situations.

UPDATE:
Nasrallah's office and home were targeted and destroyed by the IDF, but he apparently escaped. Too bad. He can run, but he can't hide forever. His hiding places are running out. So is the patience of Lebanese bloggers who have little use for Hizbullah, and what they've inflicted on Lebanon by way of raining down the wrath of Israel on Hizbullah who hides among the Lebanese.

The Counterterrorism blog has more details on the rockets that hit Haifa yesterday. They also note the following about the targets Israel has hit in Lebanon:

Israel continues to conduct military operations throughout southern Lebanon. The Israeli Defense Forces are attempting to destroy Hezbollah's military infrastructure, rocket launch sites, training camps, as well Lebanese infrastructure which can be used to facilitate the movement of weapons and supplies for Hezbollah. The IDF also prevent the two Israeli soldiers from potentially being moved out of country, possibly to Iran. For these reasons, the Damascus-Beirut road has been struck, along with bridges, Lebanese airfields and the fuel supply at the Beirut airport. Israel has also struck Hezbollah political offices in the southern suburbs south of Beirut, and has warned Lebanese to avoid Hezbollah-owned buildings.

Israel has also denied the use of these locations for Syrian or Iranian forces should they directly enter the conflict. These targets are useful for resupplying Hizbullah and transferring assets around the country and between Lebanon and Syria.

I'd also have an eye towards the flights between Syria and Iran about now, as well as paths between Syria and Iran - whether that means via Turkey or via Iraq. Syria and Iran are playing a very dangerous game here, and those weapons are getting to Lebanon somehow.

Meanwhile, Palestinian terrorists blew a hole in the wall between Gaza and Egypt, allowing terrorists to enter Gaza and resupply their cohorts. Liberty and Justice has the details.

Mere Rhetoric takes the Europeans to task for their moral equivalency in this conflict. Their calls to rein in Israel's response is asinine. And restates what the media keeps leaving out of the ongoing war wages by Hizbullah against Israel:

Speaking of which, have you noticed that Hezbollah is only really being criticized for kidnapping the two soldiers and not for all of the other things it's doing... like committing acts of war or launching hundreds of rockets into Israeli cities. Sure Europe is saying that it's not nice to launch rockets, but how come that isn't a "disproportionate response" to what's pissing Hezbollah off - all those Israeli civilians' insistence on just being so damn Jewish.

Lest we forget, Hizbullah considers all of Israel occupied territory - from the land won in 1948 to the West Bank and Golan. That's why I continue to remind my readers that Hizbullah seeks nothing less than the annihilation of Israel.

Jeff Goldstein, among others (see Laurence Simon for example) castigate the Vatican for showing how completely out of touch it is with the situation in Israel and Lebanon. Laurence Simon also shows Turkey his disdain over their requests for Israel to show restraint. Request denied.

QandO wonders whether Israel might go too far and topple the democratically elected government by cutting its feet out from under it. That's certainly a concern, but Hizbullah is well entrenched around Lebanon, including in Beirut.

Memeorandum has a roundup of major stories and bloggers running analysis and commentary.

UPDATE:
An Israeli ship that was patrolling off the coast of Lebanon was hit by a UAV laden with high explosives. Earlier reports (via Debka and posted by myself on LGF) had indicated that it was a rocket attack and that the ship was lightly damaged. The new reports indicate that the ship was badly damaged, but no casualties suffered. Yes, it does appear that the terrorists do indeed have tricks up their sleeves.

UPDATE:
Hizbullah tried hitting another Israeli ship off the coast, but hit an Egyptian ship instead. This story is still developing. Earlier this year, we were following stories of how Iran was showcasing a bunch of new weapons, including what appeared to be a shkval torpedo, and some kind of ground-in-effect plane. Does anyone recall noting whether they were showing off a UAV as well? I recall that Iran had been claiming that they were working on some kind of UAV, and Hizbullah has been claiming that they had tricks up their sleeves. Over at LGF, there's a debate over what actually hit the Israeli ship.

Others blogging the current crisis: Atlas Shrugs, Flopping Aces, Real Ugly American, The Head Heeb, Decision '08, Outside the Beltway, and Roger L. Simon.

UPDATE:
Apparently four crewmembers are missing and the INS ships systems were badly damaged. The Israelis are still trying to figure out whether it was a rocket or UAV that hit the ship. We don't know how many were fired at the ships, and they could have gotten hits on the ships that way. As far as the attack on the Egyptian ship is concerned, some reports say a rocket hit the ship, others say missiles hit the ship.

The Palestinian Finance Ministry was hit by Israel. Mohammed Deif, who was hit in airstrikes yesterday, was paralyzed in the attack. And the Lebanese PM says that Hizbullah has made a grave mistake.

1,500 Palestinians entered Gaza from Egypt through the hole punched by the terrorists earlier today.

Hizbullah is also threatening more attacks against Haifa after Israel leveled its headquarters in Lebanon. Well, considering Hizbullah has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction, they're setting their sights kinda low. All the same, more than 100 rockets were fired at Israel in just the past 24 hours, and two more Israelis were killed in the Meron area.

Now, it's also interesting to note that Nasrallah is pumping the media with this pablum:

Shortly before the strike, Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said in a telephone call to Hizbullah media outlets that Israel's ongoing operations in Lebanon were a campaign of revenge over its "defeat," as he referred to the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.

Let me rephrase this: Israel was defeated because it withdrew from Lebanon on its own accord. Another way to put this is that Israel no longer occupies Lebanon and the only reason that they're back acting in and around Lebanon is because Hizbullah just unleashed Israel's full fury against Hizbullah. Still another way to put it is that Israel was minding its own business until Hizbullah attacked Israel completely unprovoked. That's why Lebanese are hoping Israel can deal Hizbullah a fatal blow.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Rains, Summer, cavaliers, wrath, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, lebanon, syria.

Basayev the Butcher Killed In Russian Raid

Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev, the purported author of modern Russia's worst terrorist attacks, has been killed, the head of the Federal Security Service said Monday. FSB head Nikolai Patrushev told President Vladimir Putin that Basayev had been killed overnight in Ingushetia, the ITAR-Tass news agency reported.

Basayev is believed to be the mastermind of the Beslan school massacre that resulted in more than 330 killed - mostly women and children.

More detail on the operation to eliminate this terrorist can be found here.

UPDATE:
For a list of terrorist attacks claimed by Basayev, see here. His followers engaged in numerous mass casualty attacks against a wide range of targets, from schools to hospitals. Some details are emerging about how he died.

Patrushev gave no details of the operation in his televised remarks, but an Ingush regional Interior Ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said Basayev had been killed while accompanying a truck filled with 220 pounds of dynamite that blew up in the Ingush village of Ekazhevo early Monday.

Basayev was among four militants killed in the blast, which authorities earlier said had occurred inadvertently during a special police operation against rebels preparing an attack later Monday.

The Interfax news agency quoted Ingush Deputy Prime Minister Bashir Aushev as offering the same version of events and saying Basayev had been in a car accompanying the truck. He said Basayev's body had been identified "through some of the fragments, including his head," Interfax reported.

The message sent by the Russians to other terrorists: You can run, but you can't hide. That goes especially for the terrorists who murdered the four Russian diplomats in Iraq in most gruesome fashion.

UPDATE:
Rob Port, who also notes that Basayev could have had his meeting with the devil much sooner had ABC News provided the Russian authorities with details of his location when they interviewed him for a news report.

Others noting Basayev's elimination and date with the devil: Hot Air, Meryl Yourish, Blue Crab Boulevard, Charles at LGF, and The Moderate Voice.

UPDATE:
I don't think I can fully explain what eliminating Basayev does for the Russians. He has been a thorn in the side of Putin for years - and there are more than a 1,000 dead Russians as a result of his terrorist attacks. It's a huge victory for Putin.

The Agonist wonders whether it will really matter.


Others blogging Basayev's trip to the ninth plane of hell: Emperor Darth Misha, Assorted Babble, Security Watchtower, Pajamas Media, Gina Cobb, Western Resistance, Joseph Alex,

Head Scratcher

I'm not sure what to think about this though. Israel threatens to eliminate Hamas terror boss if Shalit isn't returned safely.

ISRAEL last night threatened to assassinate Palestinian Prime Minister Ismael Haniyeh if Hamas militants did not release a captured Israeli soldier unharmed.
The unprecedented warning was delivered to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in a letter as Israel debated a deal offered by Hamas to free Corporal Gilad Shalit.

It came as Israeli military officials readied a second invasion force for a huge offensive into Gaza.

Hamas's Gaza-based political leaders, including Mr Haniyeh, had already gone into hiding.

But last night's direct threat to kill Mr Haniyeh, a democratically elected head of state, sharply raised the stakes.

I'd say that raises the bar considerably. And describing Haniyeh as an elected head of state raises some interesting questions that I've previously addressed.

The actions by Hamas to infiltrate the sovereign state of Israel, attack an Israeli checkpoint, kill two Israeli soldiers and kidnap a third (Gilad Shalit), constitutes an act of war. Israel's response is to engage in the war that Hamas has always claimed it was engaging in.

Shalit's kidnappers demand the release of more than 1,000 prisoners. Many of those are in prison for killing or injuring Israelis.

James Joyner thinks the Israeli move is stupid beyond words. Michael van der Galien at the Moderate Voice disagrees and further notes Mubarak's distancing himself from the Palestinian actions. So does Donald Sensing.

I think Allah is on to something when he says this is a political ploy.

It could be that Shalit is already dead and Israel knows it, and they’re putting the letter out to give themselves political cover to target Haniyeh (i.e., he had fair warning). If not, expect them to deny having sent the letter in the morning; confirming it would be tantamount to daring Hamas to kill him, which isn’t the most prudent move when dealing with a wacko jihadist honor/shame culture.

Expect some whining tomorrow from the usual suspects about Israel’s willingness to target a democratically elected leader, as though the legitimacy of terrorism depended upon its degree of popular acclaim. The Saudis might elect Osama if given the chance, but that wouldn’t stop us from putting his head on a stick. Or “shouldn’t,” I should probably say; this is Bush we’re talking about, after all.

It's a political ploy designed to show not only who's boss, but that Israel is more than willing to get as rough as the terrorists. If you target one Israeli, you've targeted them all. Israel responds by targeting the chief terrorist - saying since you continue targeting Israelis, we'll target you. The problem is that putting all this attention on Haniyeh means that he can now travel about more freely - and his public appearances will make him ever more defiant and cause the Palestinians to rally to his side.

Unintended consequences.

My Vast Right Wing Conspiracy doesn't buy the story, and hopes that Allah's take isn't accurate. Beth doesn't think the terrorists buy it either. In fact, she wonders why people keep saying that Haniyeh was democratically elected as though that makes a world of difference.

Haniyeh was, is, and will continue to be a terrorist leader - demanding the blood and destruction of Israel. He sends his minions to kill Israelis at every opportunity and has never been held to account for his actions.

Ed Morrissey notes the repeated hypocrisy on the part of Hamas. Haniyeh refuses to negotiate under fire? Since when? They demand Israel do so time and time again, so when Israel turns the tables, Hamas cries foul. Too bad. So sad. Emperor Darth Misha concurs. In fact, he sees that Israel is getting it the same way the Russians get it following the slaughter of their diplomats in Iraq at the hands of Islamic terrorists:

And while we’re on the subject of governments that “get it”, are we the only Evil Imperial Right Wing Death Beast that got the warm fuzzy-wuzzies when Vladimir Putin reacted to the news of the murder of five of their diplomats at the hands of terrorists by saying that they were going to “use all available resources to hunt down and destroy those responsible?”

Please understand that when a Russian president says things like that, it’s not just a vapid, feel-good “bring the perpetrators to justice” message. When Russian presidents say stuff like that, it’s a direct order, and whoever they’re talking about tend to start suffering strange “accidents” shortly thereafter. Strange, painful and terminal “accidents.”

Big Lizards has a thoughtful post wondering why it took so long for Israel to finally act - what was it about Shalit's capture that resulted in the kinds of actions we're seeing from Israel. Well, for starters, it wasn't just Shalit's capture - it was the invasion of Israel by Hamas, the terrorist cum goverment of the Palestinians. It was the murder of two Israeli soldiers in the same incident where Shalit was captured. It was the further kidnap and murder of Eliyahu Ashri. Yet, his point holds - this time things are different.

Others blogging: Carl in Jerusalem, Flopping Aces, Blue Crab Boulevard, and Small Town Veteran.

UPDATE:
Palestinian officials say that Shalit is wounded, but in stable condition.

The official, Ziad Abu Ein, the deputy minister for prisoners for Palestinians, spoke at a news conference in Ramallah in the West Bank.

"He has three wounds, I guess shrapnel wounds," Mr. Abu Ein said of the soldier, Cpl. Gilad Shalit, whose capture by Palestinian militants last Sunday spawned the current crisis. "He is fine now."

The Times needs a fact check - the current crisis started when Palestinian terrorists invaded Israel via a 300 foot long tunnel, attacked an Israeli checkpoint killing two Israeli soldiers, and captured the third - Gilad Shalit.

But I digress. The New York Times then reports that the Gazans are adapting to the current situation. Yeah, I see that they're adopting just fine - especially as the Karni crossing has been reopened for four days by the Israelis. 150 trucks a day will be able to cross in.

And yet all the discomfort experienced by the Palestinians in coming days can be avoided with one simple gesture - release Shalit.

You see, it really isn't that difficult. Hamas releases Shalit, and Israel can't act against them. Hamas would regain the initiative, but the terrorist group needs something in return beyond the fact that they've already succeeded in invading Israel, killing two soldiers, kidnapping a third, and pushing the region to the brink of an open shooting war.

President Bush has commented that Shalit's release would end the current crisis.

None of this has stopped Israel from continuing its offensive against the terrorists. The IAF launched an airstrike against Haniyeh's office in Gaza. Also, Israeli tanks are on the move in northern Gaza.

Meanwhile, Pamela at Atlas Shrugs went to a pro-Palestinian anti-Israel rally in NYC. Let's just say Pamela's a tough cookie and the video portions are not to be missed.

UPDATE:
Did I forget to mention that Palestinian terrorists are still firing rockets and missiles into Israel. These are severely underreported in Western media outside Israel because if folks realized that Israel has been extremely patient beyond all means with the incessant rocket attacks, they might actually understand why Israel has finally had enough with Hamas and the other Palestinian terrorists.

Israel is hoping that the US could lean on Syria to exert more pressure to get Shalit released. I don't know how well that will work, but Hamas gets support from Damascus and letting Assad know in no uncertain terms that he might be held responsible might (and I know that's real remote, but stranger things have happened) change his stance.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Ashri, Abbas, Rains, Summer, cavaliers, wrath, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel