Russian Intends To Absorb South Ossetia

Forget about all the nonsense that Vlad Putin was spouting off about how Russia's invasion of Georgia was the fault of the US.

The proof is in the pudding. In this case, the facts are that the Russians have every intention of taking Georgian territory as their own. They were not seeking to support a South Ossetia independent of Russia. They want to absorb it as their own.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and the region's leader, Eduard Kokoity, discussed the future of South Ossetia earlier this week in Moscow, South Ossetian parliamentary speaker Znaur Gassiyev said.

Russia will absorb South Ossetia "in several years" or earlier, a position was "firmly stated by both leaders," Mr. Gassiyev said.

In Moscow, a Kremlin spokeswoman said today there was "no official information" on the talks.

The vice speaker of Georgia's parliament, Gigi Tsereteli, said the statement cannot be taken seriously.

"The separatist regimes of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the Russian authorities are cut off from reality," he said in Tbilisi. "The world has already become different and Russia will not long be able to occupy sovereign Georgian territory."

"The regimes of Abkhazia and South Ossetia should think about the fact that if they become part of Russia, they will be assimilated and in this way they will disappear," he added.

Russia used the separatists in South Ossetia and no longer need them. They did what they had to do - create a pretext to get Georgia to crack down on the separatists in order for the Russians to storm in claiming that they're protecting the South Ossetians from Georgian aggression.

This was Russia's take on Anschluss.

UPDATE:
Hot Air also weighs in, and Below the Beltway wonders whether Putin has joined the tin-foil hat brigade in blaming Bush for all that ails the world.

Russia Indeed Started Georgian Conflict

Don't take my word for it. Definitely don't take Pravda's word for it - or the New York Times or the Associated Press, which willingly and openly pushed the Russian government line that it was the Georgians who started this conflict.

Russia engaged in a premeditated and preplanned invasion of Georgia, using the South Ossetians as a wedge to invade. The Russians already had the troops in place, as they were holding exercises in the nearby Russian territories, and simply used those forces for this invasion.


Michael Totten, who is interviewing folks on the ground in Georgia, reports:

Virtually everyone is wrong. Georgia didn’t start it on August 7, nor on any other date. The South Ossetian militia started it on August 6 when its fighters fired on Georgian peacekeepers and Georgian villages with weapons banned by the agreement hammered out between the two sides in 1994. At the same time, the Russian military sent its invasion force bearing down on Georgia from the north side of the Caucasus Mountains on the Russian side of the border through the Roki tunnel and into Georgia. This happened before Saakashvili sent additional troops to South Ossetia and allegedly started the war.

As I've been noting all along, the Russians provoked a conflict, so as to thwart the Georgian relationship with the US and to send a message to other former Soviet Republics to either stand with Russia or else be warned that the Russians will treat them as enemies.

Indeed, little has changed in the decades since George Kennan noted that Russia (or the then Soviet Union) viewed its neighbors either as vassals or enemies.

So, why did the Georgians get hammered hard? Well, NATO dithered and refused to grant the Georgians a membership action plan, which puts countries on a path to membership, while other countries, like Albania and Macedonia were given a MAP, even though the Georgian military was in a better position than the other two countries.

The Russians saw this as a wedge issue on which to pounce.

And they did.

So, it's no surprise that the Russians are now recognizing the two breakaway provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which the US and the West oppose.

The Russians are playing the world media for fools, and the media has bought into the Russian propagandists.

Who's Gorby Kidding?

Former Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbochev claims that Russia never intended for there to be a war in Georgia. Right.

Which country invaded Georgia under the pretense of claiming to act as peacekeepers in the Georgian breakaway province of South Ossetia. That would be Russia.

Which country continues to break its own ceasefire agreement with Georgia. Again, that would be Russia.

Which country unilaterally acted in violating the territorial sovereignty of its neighbor. Again, that's Russia.

Gorbochev is doing nothing more than proffering the standard Russian line on Georgia - that it was Georgia's own fault for attacking the South Ossetians. He would rather ignore the fact that the war has reduced South Ossetia's towns to rubble.

The Moderate Voice has much more and breaks down Gorbochev's position, which essentially blames Saakashvili for the entire mess.

Mark Safranski argues that we shouldn't rush into a Cold War II based on the events in Georgia, but the problem is that the Russians have launched a premeditated war against Georgia to further its own strategic interests, and used the West's failure to hold the line against Russian expansionism and failure of resolve, along with a fear of escalation to cement its grip on the Georgian countryside.

I think he underestimates the concern for Russian military exploits. It may have been a few military brigades that launched into Georgia and now occupy the Georgian countryside, but those same few brigades could find themselves operating in neighboring former Republics before long, and that this is the first step in the slow creep to the restoration of the Russian empire.

US and Poland Sign Missile Defense Pact

After Russia's brazen invasion of Georgia to ostensibly protect the South Ossetians, but which has been exposed as nothing less than a power play by the Russians to intimidate further former Soviet Republics from closer ties with the West, Poland has signed a deal cementing a missile defense system emplacement within the country.

Russia has already threatened Poland with nuclear weapons targeting, but the fact is that Russia's actions have spurred NATO into acting and former Republics have realized that the resurgent Red menace on their border isn't content to simply live and let live.

They want to maintain control and dominion over their former holdings, and will use whatever tactics are available, up to and including brutal military force.

To be clear, this missile defense system is designed to protect Europe from missiles fired against it. It's defensive in nature, not an offensive weapons system to be fired first against enemies.

It would be extremely useful against rogue nations that may attempt to fire missiles against Europe, including Iran. It's an insurance policy, and yet Russia treats it as an offensive threat. Then again, everything that the West does is portrayed as an offensive threat, even though it was the Russians who instigated matters in Georgia and whose peacekeepers have been doing anything but - raping and pillaging the Georgian countryside and who haven't withdrawn out of Georgian territory despite the ceasefire.

Georgia-Russian Cease Fire Agreement Signed

The Georgians and Russians have signed the latest cease fire agreement. The real question is whether it will be worth the paper it's printed on, since the Russians continue to occupy Georgian territory outside South Ossetia and have no intention of doing anything other than oversee the breakup of Georgia.

A grim Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili said Friday he signed a cease-fire agreement that requires the immediate withdrawal of all Russian forces from Georgian soil.
Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili announces Friday he signed a cease-fire agreement with Russia.

The agreement includes a provision for independent monitors and an eventual reconstruction plan for Georgia's economy, said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who brought the documents to Tbilisi.

The two had met for almost five hours, the Georgian president said.

Saakashvili opened the news conference with a long, bitter tirade against European nations' appeasement in the face of a Russian invasion last week.

In many respects, the situation is little different than the Palestinian war against Israel and the repeated cease fires, which are little more than strategic pauses designed to give the Palestinians a break to regroup and rearm. Here, the Russians have yet to remove their troops from Georgian territory, and military operations continue despite the claim that a cease fire is in effect.

Meanwhile, in no coincidence, the US signed a deal with Poland to station an anti-ballistic missile system in Poland yesterday, which has ticked off the Russians, who consider that a provocation. Again, the Russians think that nations defending themselves against Russian aggression is a provocation.

The Fear of Escalation

At what point will the Russians finally back down and withdraw from Georgia? Is that after they've completely dismembered Georgia and subsumed large swaths into Russia? Is it after they've sent a message to the other former Soviet republics not to do business with the West and that they have to worry about what Russia will do next to them? Or, is it when Russian troops stand across from US forces and US allies and a conflict spreads well beyond the borders of Georgia?

If it's delivering a message, then the message was delivered loud and clear. Those other countries, including the Ukraine, are moving closer to the West, because they see the problem with Russian expansionism.

Meanwhile, the Russians have turned a blind eye to rampant looking in areas they claim their peacekeepers are operating. Indeed, several Israeli journalists were robbed at gunpoint by Russian troops. However, a Russian officer who had seen the incident returned the vehicle and its contents to the journalists 20 minutes later. The tends to lend credence to the reports of looting and other criminal acts by the Russians, although some Russian officers are acting professionally and imposing that professionalism on their ranks.

It's estimated that 15,000 Russian troops are in South Ossetia and Georgia.

Hot Air notes that the Russians are now withdrawing from Georgian territory but remaining in South Ossetia, and that the French diplomatic plan actually may have given the Russians the pretext to march on Tbilisi. Why? Well, apparently the French sold out the Georgians. There are definitely shades of Munich in 1938, where the Europeans sold out the Czechs and Chamberlain thought they had peace in their time.

So, what actually got the Russians to change their mind? An unexpected US response to the crisis - sending US troops into the region in the form of humanitarian aid. The Russians hadn't expected it. It wasn't something I had expected either, since the presence of US troops could have resulted in a shooting war between the US and Russians, which is something neither side wanted, but could have been inevitable with the Russians still operating inside Georgian territory.

The way the Russians and US handled this crisis can be explained through a fear of escalation. The Russians continued beyond South Ossetia into Georgia because the fear of escalation was low. They didn't see any signs that the US or EU would step in to back the Georgians. The US didn't want to get involved for fear of escalating and putting US troops directly into the line of fire.

However, the Russians continued advancing towards Tbilisi, and the US changed course, and the placement of humanitarian aid got the Russians to blink. Suddenly, it was the Russians who had to worry about escalation and they didn't want to run that risk either.

So, while the fear of escalation made the crisis initially worse - by encouraging Russian aggression, it was that same fear of escalation that got the Russians to back down.

Russia Continues Georgia Invasion Despite Cease Fire

President Bush has announced that the US will send humanitarian aid to Georgia aboard C-17 transport aircraft. Those transport aircraft aren't going to go in alone, as they will likely have fighter escorts and AWACS planes monitoring the Russians at every step.

There are good reasons why the US will not engage in a direct confrontation with the Russians - to avoid a war that could potentially set the whole world ablaze. The US continues to adhere to the same military doctrine from the Cold War that enabled the world to avoid a nuclear conflagration - avoid direct military conflict between Russian (Soviet) and US forces at all costs. Proxy wars are okay, but keep them from getting into direct entanglements.

That's why you're not going to see the US get into a direct war with the Russians. The stakes are simply astronomical should that come to pass.

The US has limited options, but let's be clear here - no matter how much the US provided military training and equipment to the Georgians, the Russians could overwhelm them with sheer numbers, which is exactly what they've done to this point.

This isn't like the US taking on the Russians directly. The Russians exploited the situation in South Ossetia to expand their power at the expense of one of our allies. It hits our prestige and influence in the region, but there are ways to restore the situation and to make Russia think twice.

One - grant membership to the Ukraine. Ukraine tells Russia to pound sand and vacate their base in Sevastopol. It would make the Russians think twice since they'd lose a key Black Sea port, and expose their flank.

Two - grant membership to Georgia. Use that as a means to demand Russia's exit and return status quo ante or else face NATO firepower.

It ups the stakes, but does so in a way that gives Russia an out before shooting starts between NATO/US forces and the Russians. Russia doesn't think much of NATO or Europe and probably think they will not lift a finger to help Georgia. Disabusing them of that thinking is crucial to regional stability of the sort that provides fertile ground for democracies. Russia doesn't like democracies on its borders since they're far more likely to look westward than towards Russia.

The moral relativists and leftists are quick to condemn the US role in this, but excuse the Russians. Funny how that happens (especially when the moral relativists are leftists).

Meanwhile, the Georgians continue to suffer at the hands of the Russians as villages are burned. Cease fire? What cease fire? Russian troops push deeper into Georgia, and appear more than willing and capable of cutting the country in half. If they're looking to engage in a ceasefire, then advancing away from South Ossetia is the wrong direction - they're pushing deeper into Georgia.

Once again, the facts show that Russia had every intention of causing a conflict to erupt in Georgia and use it as a pretext to eliminating a nascent democracy along its borders. You cannot prepare a military action such as the one currently undertaken by the Russians without significant preparations and planning. These moves were decided long ago by Putin and the Russian government.

The BBC plays winners and losers, even though the fighting isn't over, and the situation is still far from decided. However, I would tend to agree that the truth and facts are a loser in all this. The Russians have played the ethnic cleansing and genocide card from the earliest moments of the fighting, but they have steadfastly refused to allow anyone access to the region to see what they've done (or found). The BBC also claims that the Georgians fired indiscriminately on South Ossetia with rockets, which is plausible, but again, who fired first - the South Ossetians who provoked the Georgian response.

That BBC article also posits a few additional possibilities for how the West can thwart or undermine Russian objectives, including telling the Russians they lost their shot at joining the WTO or kick them out of the G-8.

UPDATE:
The first C-17s have landed in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, and there are now reports that the Russians are only minutes away from entering the city. Things could get very hot very quickly. I suspect that the Russians are moving quickly to establish a hold on the city before the US humanitarian aid can get going - since the aid comes in the form of US peacekeepers.

Or, will the Russians claim that the US aren't peacekeepers but a military operation to support their Georgian allies? That's what you can expect, but that is precisely what the Russians have done throughout this whole sorry episode.

Russia Haltingly Halts Georgia Invasion? UPDATE: Cease Fire Agreed

There are reports that the Russians have stopped their offensive into Georgian territory, but the situation remains fluid. Indeed, Georgian authorities say that the Russians haven't stopped their military campaign and are continuing to inflict civilian casualties.

The Russian President ordered a halt five days after operations began in South Ossetia and Georgia as French Prime Minister Nicholas Sarkozy is to arrive in Moscow to discuss the situation.

Georgia looks like they're going to be a mere shell of their former selves, and while this will certainly warm the hearts of the Russian expansionists and opportunists, it isn't a good sign for other countries bordering Russia. They too may come under Russia's red glare. That goes for the Ukraine as well, whose actions to threaten the Russian Navy will not be soon forgotten.

The methods by which the Russians are moving through Georgian territory shows that this was not some mere reaction to Georgian actions, but rather part of a methodical and long-planned operation to assert control along Russia's border and to instill fear among countries that might favor alliances with the West. The Russians sent not one brigade into Georgia, but the equivalent of two divisions, which requires serious planning and logistics.

The South Ossetian provocateurs were busy laying the groundwork for the Russian operation by provoking the Georgians into taking action.

Due to the repeated setbacks and failure to hold against the Russian advances and airstrikes, Georgia looks to withdraw from the CIS.

Jammie notes that the Google map for Georgia and several other former Soviet Republics have become blank slates. No real reason why this is the case, but it is curious.

It would appear that John McCain has proven to have a better grasp of the situation than Barack Obama, whose 300 advisers required three takes before they could come to the same conclusion that McCain did five days earlier. That's not an auspicious situation for Obama and once again shows that he's not ready for prime time.

UPDATE:
Putting a good spin on this - Russia's interventionist adventure in Georgia could pave the way for US action on Iran? Well, the US does have more to go on than the Russians did.

UPDATE:
The left (and the NYT, but I repeat myself) continue to proffer the agitprop that the situation in Georgia is President Bush's fault. Sorry, but had Georgia been granted membership into NATO, Russia would not have entered into its military adventure there, but rather seen its power grab thwarted. Russia would have been constrained. Instead, the failure to grant Georgia NATO membership opened the door for the Russian actions. Putin saw an opportunity and took it.

UPDATE:
Even though the Russians have been busy claiming that the Georgians are engaging in ethnic cleansing, the Georgians have proffered that it was the Russians who did just that in their invasion of Georgia and takeover of South Ossetia. The Georgians have filed suit at the International Court of Justice. Further, the Georgians are claiming that the Russians have ethnically cleansed another troubled region of Georgia, Abkhazia, of ethnic Georgians.

UPDATE:
James Pethokoukis at US News emails to note that there may still more good to come out of this situation. It provides clarity over Putin's aspirations and Russia's goals. It may also further serve to prod the US to find more sources of energy domestically where it will not be reliant on unstable regions of the world.

UPDATE:
Georgia and Russia have agreed to a cease fire, although both sides claim the other hasn't fulfilled their pledge to stop shooting.

War Continues in South Ossetia and Georgia

The Russians continue their bombardment of Georgian cities and towns, and they're complaining that the US is airlifting Georgian troops who were previously stationed in Iraq as part of Georgia's commitment there. Georgia had sent 2,000 peacekeepers to Iraq to help with the US efforts in Iraq.

Now, they're needed back home as Russia continues its assault on Georgia. Georgian civilians are paying the price as they are the ones who are suffering for Russia's militarism.

For those who were wondering what the US could possibly do to help the Georgians, that's about it. As it is, this clearly puts the US in Georgia's corner, and anything more could trigger a direct confrontation between the US and Russia, which neither side wants.

Strategy Page notes that the Russians have maintained a persistent and troublesome presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which the Georgians consider part of their own territory. Those "peacekeepers" have thwarted Georgian control over the whole of its nation, and the Russians have been exploiting this situation for years.

Even as the Russians bombard the Georgians from the air, the Russian navy is providing a second front in their war, and had sunk a Georgian missile boat, although Georgian forces deny that.

Tigerhawk wonders where all the anti-war protesters went. You know the answer to this. Those anti-war protesters are really anti-US protesters, and if the Russians wanted war, they can have as many as they can seemingly handle, even if they're the aggressors and are attempting to exert their influence over the former Soviet republics.

Don't count on the UN to act to stop the war, since Russia maintains a veto on the Security Council. It's a fool's hope to even consider that the UN can act to draft a weakly worded statement, let alone a resolution that forces the Russians to back off. The US and other big powers are calling for a truce, but the Russians are out to teach the Georgians and the rest of the former Soviet Union states a lesson in power projection and fealty. Russia wants to maintain its control and dominance over the nations that border it, and Georgia's independence and close ties to the US could not be tolerated.

UPDATE:
Russian propagandists and apologists keep claiming that the Russians were simply responding to Georgian advances into South Ossetia and that they're protecting the territorial integrity of South Ossetia. That rationale goes out the window when you keep seeing reports of Georgian towns all over the country coming under fire from Russian aircraft and artillery.

Prime Minister Vlad Putin is saying that the US is backing Georgia. Well, many think the US isn't doing nearly enough to help an ally in a time of need, but the logistical support provided thus far, may be all that the US can do without getting US forces directly into a shooting match with the Russians at a time when it isn't in the strategic interests of the US to do so.

The propagandists have also claimed that the Georgians engaged in ethnic cleansing, but the only violence perpetrated against civilians right now is the ongoing bombardment of Georgian cities. Gori is on the cusp of being overrun.

UPDATE:
To underscore the point that this was not about South Ossetia, but rather Georgia's insistence on allying with the US and the West, it appears that the Russians demand nothing less than Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to step down. This fight was gamed by the Russians to their advantage, using their presence in South Ossetia and ongoing skirmishes with Georgian forces to instigate a wider conflict.

UPDATE:
Is Reuters stage managing photo opportunities inside Georgia? It certainly seems that way based on the photo sequences provided by Reuters photographers there. The level of violence against the Georgians doesn't need to be exaggerated or stage managed - there's more than enough carnage without this. As for why you're not seeing photos of South Ossetia, maybe you should be asking the Russians who are controlling that area with an iron fist. The reflexiveness to blame everything on Georgia for the crisis - and the US because it happens to be an ally and supporter of the Georgian democracy - is not altogether astonishing. After all, Bush hatred dies hard.

UPDATE:
Powerline has a good post on the current situation there, including where we suspect Russian units are operating and where they may be headed next. (ht: reine.de.tout at lgf)

UPDATE:
The Russians are now talking about a ceasefire and Georgian withdrawal from South Ossetia at the UN - a return to the status quo ante, although the Russian "peacekeepers" will remain in place, even if they are engaging in operations.

The Russians are also busy claiming that attacks on civilians are unfortunate incidents and they didn't mean to do so. Take with a grain of salt given the Russian penchant to run up body counts wherever they go to war.

Russia will consider ceasefire and withdrawal of forces only after Georgia returns to pre-clashes status-quo and pulls its troops from "occupied" areas of South Ossetia, Vitaly Churkin, the Russia''s UN ambassador, said on 10 August.

But he also stressed that return to status-quo should no way apply to the Russian forces currently fighting with the Georgian troops in the region.

"There must not be any illusions about that," Churkin said. "In order to consider withdrawal of our forces we must make sure that there is no chance of genocide there."

He was speaking after an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council - the third one in last few days. The Council has again failed to reach an agreement on the wording of an appeal for an end to the hostilities.

"There is a straightforward way to stop fighting, to stop killing: for Georgians to withdraw and then to have an agreement on non-use of force signed and then we can talk on other verity things, including [on] military and political arrangements," Churkin said.

Something doesn't quite make sense. From all various reports from the region, the Georgians have been forced from South Ossetia since yesterday, and the Russians are continuing to advance into Georgian territory. They're not merely content with status quo ante (a return to the situation pre-conflict), but are attempting to create a new geopolitical situation there.

Putin is attempting to spin that it is the Georgians engaged in war crimes and ethnic cleansing (again). Pradva concurs.

The fact is, if Russia were truly serious about just protecting the status quo and preventing Georgian forces from acting there, stop at the border. Instead, they are looking to overthrow the Georgian government.

President Bush made a brief statement on the ongoing crisis, but will not commit military forces to assist the Georgians. He will have to rely on the bully pulpit to cajole the Russians into stopping the fighting because the US simply does not want to risk getting into a shooting war with the Russians over the Georgians, even though we risk losing an ally in the region and perhaps future potential allies may reconsider acting.

One may further trace the Georgia's failings to the NATO refusal to grant Georgia entry, which gave Russia an opening to seize its objectives in South Ossetia and wrest control from the Georgians.

It's also curious that the Russian investment community is dealing with a slumping stock market there just as this conflict has heated up. What do they know that the Russian government doesn't? Well, they know that Russia needs to maintain ties with the West, and if they continue down this path, their economy could take a big hit. However, I don't see this thwarting Putin's plans for Russian foreign policy.

War Intensifies Over South Ossetia

Bloomberg is reporting that Russia's Black Sea fleet is steaming towards Georgia, which spells truly bad news for the Georgian military. Russia is likely pursuing opening up another front against the Georgians, and the fleet would enable the Russians to bombard the Georgians with impunity.

Georgia's military capabilities are a fraction of that of Russia, and although they've had US training, the Georgians could be simply overwhelmed by superior firepower from the Russian forces massing against it.

It would also appear that Russia has been planning this war for some time given the way it has pursued the conflict. Russian forces inside South Ossetia are now moving towards the border with Georgia proper, and Russian airstrikes against Georgia continue to take Georgian lives.

Russia's military doesn't treat civilians the same way the US or NATO forces do. They fight with a meat-grinder's mentality. Crush the enemy before them with artillery and airstrikes. It's brutal and it can be effective. The wave of suffering and misery will continue to spread before the Russian war machine.

The Russians are also not hiding the fact that this war is not only about imposing dominion over its neighbors, but about oil. They're bombing Georgian pipelines, since that is a revenue generator for Georgia and it puts Europe in a precarious position to demand Russia cease and desist since Europe is dependent on oil from the region.

Joshua Kucera has a good background piece on Ossetia, Georgia, and the Russian influence.

UPDATE:
US Presidential candidates Barack Obama (D) and John McCain (R) have each issued statements on the situation. Let's just say that Obama has had to go back and revise his as he's made a second statement that pretty much mirrors what McCain stated at the outset. Flip. Flop.

UPDATE:
The Ukrainians are not sitting back while the Russian fleet sails from its Black Sea port to support Russian efforts to attack Georgia. The Ukrainians are warning the Russians that if the fleet sails, they wont be able to return. Where Georgia lacks the size and capabilities to stand up to the Russians, Ukraine is in a far better position to fend off the Russians, particularly because Russia imports significant amounts of food from Ukraine and the Ukrainian military is far larger than their Georgian counterpart.

Also, it's a good time to note the wide discrepancy in casualty tallies. The Russians and South Ossetians have claimed that the Georgian forces have killed 1,500 or more in South Ossetia, while the Georgian government claims under a 100 have been killed there. However, more Georgian casualties have been reported within Georgia itself as Russian forces conduct airstrikes against Georgian towns and cities.

My headline from yesterday was apparently based on Russian figures, even though there's no corroboration on the ground that this is the case.

The Russians are using their figures to try and push claims that the Georgians are engaged in ethnic cleansing and genocide, even though there's absolutely no evidence either has taken place. However, since the Russians know how to play the propaganda game, they're pursuing this angle since they know it is most likely to result in sympathy for their cause.

UPDATE:
Georgian forces inside South Ossetia have been forced to retreat and the Georgian government continues to call for a ceasefire. Russia continues to act as though Georgia's diplomatic calls don't exist, and continues bombarding civilian targets inside Georgia.

Russian-Georgian War Claims 1,500 As Attacks Intensify

The NYT reports that the war between Georgia and Russia is intensifying, and at least 1,500 people have been killed in South Ossetia. The Times is touting the Russian line that Georgia started the war, was engaging in ethnic cleansing and that the Russians were helpfully acting as peacekeepers:

Russian authorities said their forces had retaken the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, from Georgian control during the morning hours. They reported that 15 Russian peacekeepers and 1,500 civilians have been killed in the conflict.

Georgian forces shot down 10 Russian combat planes over the last two days, according to Alexander Lomaya, secretary of the Georgian National Security Council.

Shota Utiashvili, an official at the Georgian Interior Ministry, called the attack on Gori a “major escalation,” and said he expected attacks to increase over the course of Saturday. He said some 16 Russian planes were in the air over Georgian territory at any given time on Saturday, four times the number of sorties seen Friday.

In the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, wounded fighters and civilians began to arrive in hospitals, most with shrapnel or mortar wounds. Several dozen names had been posted outside the hospital.

In a news conference, the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Georgian attacks on Russian citizens “amounted to ethnic cleansing.”

Mr. Lavrov said Russian airstrikes targeted military staging grounds. Asked whether Russia is prepared to fight “all-out war” in Georgia, he said: “No. Georgia, I believe, started a war in Southern Ossetia, and we are responsible to keep the peace.”

Don't buy this for a moment. The Russians have been backing the separatists in South Ossetia for years, and are now acting in an overt manner to claim the territory as its own.

Some of the friction between Russia and Georgia stems from Georgia's decision to attempt to join NATO. Russia wants to maintain its sphere of influence and views NATO as a threat to its hegemony along its borders. The South Ossetian situation had been a source of trouble since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989, and an uneasy peace had lasted this long.

I suspect that the Russians used the Olympics as cover to take direct action at a time when the world's attention was focused elsewhere. They are now portraying the Georgians as the aggressors and engaging in ethnic cleansing.

As Richard Fenandezpoints out:

The geopolitical value of South Ossetia, a remote region in the foothills of the Caucasus, is negligible. It is hardly worth a serious conflict between Russia and Georgia, still less between Russia and NATO. But a wounded Russian pride and American responsibility towards a loyal ally make it a volatile situation worth watching.

President Bush says that the Russians are engaging in a dangerous escalation of the violence urging them to cease their air attacks, and the Georgian government has called for a ceasefire as the Georgia government notes that the Russians have launched a full scale invasion of Georgian territory.

UPDATE:
It also appears that the Russians are attempting to cripple Georgia's oil infrastructure, which plays a key role in transporting oil to Europe. If you want to know why Europe isn't lifting a finger to tell Russia to stop, that's it.

UPDATE:
Ralph Peters has more background on the origins of the current war and doesn't mince words about the fecklessness of the Europeans' failure to confront the Russian aggression.

UPDATE:
Sky News has video of the Russian assault on Georgia. More video here and here (HT: killgore trout at LGF).

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War Erupts Between Georgia and Russia

Georgia claims that it has shot down two Russian jets.

Georgia's Interior Ministry spokesman says that Georgian forces have shot down two Russian combat planes as violence escalates in the breakaway province of South Ossetia.

Russia has sent 150 tanks and armored vehicles into the territory as what started as a regional conflict between Georgia and separatists threatens to build into all-out war.

A senior Georgian security official says Russian jets have bombed Vaziani military airbase outside the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, Reuters reports.

This has the potential to spiral quickly into an all out war between the two countries over control over South Ossetia. Both countries claim dominion, and many South Ossetians have Russian citizenship.

The Russians are threatening massive retaliation for the ongoing Georgian actions.

The map highlights why the Georgians consider the territory to be theirs. It practically envelopes Ossetia. The Russians have made it no secret that they intend to maintain their control over the territory. The Georgians are also making it no secret that they intend to have Ossetia for themselves and Georgian army units are engaged in gun battles in Tskhinvali with South Ossetian separatists.

For additional background, note also that this region has been ravaged by Islamist terrorists, including the butchers of Beslan and other Chechen terrorists. It is a hotbed of terrorism and experts also believe that al Qaeda has been active in the region.

UPDATE:
Instapundit has more on the crisis, including an email submission that notes that Russia has a very long history in meddling in the affairs of its neighbors and both covert and overt attempts to expand its dominion.

UPDATE:
Russian tanks have now entered South Ossetia and its capital. This situation is quickly degrading, and talks between President Bush and Russian leader Vlad Putin in Beijing aren't likely to make any headway either.

UPDATE:
Changed header to reflect fact that we're witnessing the opening salvos of a war between Russia and Georgia directly after South Ossetian separatists, backed by Russia have been shelling Georgia periodically and repeatedly despite Georgia having engaged in ceasefires before.