War Intensifies Over South Ossetia

Bloomberg is reporting that Russia's Black Sea fleet is steaming towards Georgia, which spells truly bad news for the Georgian military. Russia is likely pursuing opening up another front against the Georgians, and the fleet would enable the Russians to bombard the Georgians with impunity.

Georgia's military capabilities are a fraction of that of Russia, and although they've had US training, the Georgians could be simply overwhelmed by superior firepower from the Russian forces massing against it.

It would also appear that Russia has been planning this war for some time given the way it has pursued the conflict. Russian forces inside South Ossetia are now moving towards the border with Georgia proper, and Russian airstrikes against Georgia continue to take Georgian lives.

Russia's military doesn't treat civilians the same way the US or NATO forces do. They fight with a meat-grinder's mentality. Crush the enemy before them with artillery and airstrikes. It's brutal and it can be effective. The wave of suffering and misery will continue to spread before the Russian war machine.

The Russians are also not hiding the fact that this war is not only about imposing dominion over its neighbors, but about oil. They're bombing Georgian pipelines, since that is a revenue generator for Georgia and it puts Europe in a precarious position to demand Russia cease and desist since Europe is dependent on oil from the region.

Joshua Kucera has a good background piece on Ossetia, Georgia, and the Russian influence.

UPDATE:
US Presidential candidates Barack Obama (D) and John McCain (R) have each issued statements on the situation. Let's just say that Obama has had to go back and revise his as he's made a second statement that pretty much mirrors what McCain stated at the outset. Flip. Flop.

UPDATE:
The Ukrainians are not sitting back while the Russian fleet sails from its Black Sea port to support Russian efforts to attack Georgia. The Ukrainians are warning the Russians that if the fleet sails, they wont be able to return. Where Georgia lacks the size and capabilities to stand up to the Russians, Ukraine is in a far better position to fend off the Russians, particularly because Russia imports significant amounts of food from Ukraine and the Ukrainian military is far larger than their Georgian counterpart.

Also, it's a good time to note the wide discrepancy in casualty tallies. The Russians and South Ossetians have claimed that the Georgian forces have killed 1,500 or more in South Ossetia, while the Georgian government claims under a 100 have been killed there. However, more Georgian casualties have been reported within Georgia itself as Russian forces conduct airstrikes against Georgian towns and cities.

My headline from yesterday was apparently based on Russian figures, even though there's no corroboration on the ground that this is the case.

The Russians are using their figures to try and push claims that the Georgians are engaged in ethnic cleansing and genocide, even though there's absolutely no evidence either has taken place. However, since the Russians know how to play the propaganda game, they're pursuing this angle since they know it is most likely to result in sympathy for their cause.

UPDATE:
Georgian forces inside South Ossetia have been forced to retreat and the Georgian government continues to call for a ceasefire. Russia continues to act as though Georgia's diplomatic calls don't exist, and continues bombarding civilian targets inside Georgia.