Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Russia Haltingly Halts Georgia Invasion? UPDATE: Cease Fire Agreed

There are reports that the Russians have stopped their offensive into Georgian territory, but the situation remains fluid. Indeed, Georgian authorities say that the Russians haven't stopped their military campaign and are continuing to inflict civilian casualties.

The Russian President ordered a halt five days after operations began in South Ossetia and Georgia as French Prime Minister Nicholas Sarkozy is to arrive in Moscow to discuss the situation.

Georgia looks like they're going to be a mere shell of their former selves, and while this will certainly warm the hearts of the Russian expansionists and opportunists, it isn't a good sign for other countries bordering Russia. They too may come under Russia's red glare. That goes for the Ukraine as well, whose actions to threaten the Russian Navy will not be soon forgotten.

The methods by which the Russians are moving through Georgian territory shows that this was not some mere reaction to Georgian actions, but rather part of a methodical and long-planned operation to assert control along Russia's border and to instill fear among countries that might favor alliances with the West. The Russians sent not one brigade into Georgia, but the equivalent of two divisions, which requires serious planning and logistics.

The South Ossetian provocateurs were busy laying the groundwork for the Russian operation by provoking the Georgians into taking action.

Due to the repeated setbacks and failure to hold against the Russian advances and airstrikes, Georgia looks to withdraw from the CIS.

Jammie notes that the Google map for Georgia and several other former Soviet Republics have become blank slates. No real reason why this is the case, but it is curious.

It would appear that John McCain has proven to have a better grasp of the situation than Barack Obama, whose 300 advisers required three takes before they could come to the same conclusion that McCain did five days earlier. That's not an auspicious situation for Obama and once again shows that he's not ready for prime time.

UPDATE:
Putting a good spin on this - Russia's interventionist adventure in Georgia could pave the way for US action on Iran? Well, the US does have more to go on than the Russians did.

UPDATE:
The left (and the NYT, but I repeat myself) continue to proffer the agitprop that the situation in Georgia is President Bush's fault. Sorry, but had Georgia been granted membership into NATO, Russia would not have entered into its military adventure there, but rather seen its power grab thwarted. Russia would have been constrained. Instead, the failure to grant Georgia NATO membership opened the door for the Russian actions. Putin saw an opportunity and took it.

UPDATE:
Even though the Russians have been busy claiming that the Georgians are engaging in ethnic cleansing, the Georgians have proffered that it was the Russians who did just that in their invasion of Georgia and takeover of South Ossetia. The Georgians have filed suit at the International Court of Justice. Further, the Georgians are claiming that the Russians have ethnically cleansed another troubled region of Georgia, Abkhazia, of ethnic Georgians.

UPDATE:
James Pethokoukis at US News emails to note that there may still more good to come out of this situation. It provides clarity over Putin's aspirations and Russia's goals. It may also further serve to prod the US to find more sources of energy domestically where it will not be reliant on unstable regions of the world.

UPDATE:
Georgia and Russia have agreed to a cease fire, although both sides claim the other hasn't fulfilled their pledge to stop shooting.

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