The Fear of Escalation

At what point will the Russians finally back down and withdraw from Georgia? Is that after they've completely dismembered Georgia and subsumed large swaths into Russia? Is it after they've sent a message to the other former Soviet republics not to do business with the West and that they have to worry about what Russia will do next to them? Or, is it when Russian troops stand across from US forces and US allies and a conflict spreads well beyond the borders of Georgia?

If it's delivering a message, then the message was delivered loud and clear. Those other countries, including the Ukraine, are moving closer to the West, because they see the problem with Russian expansionism.

Meanwhile, the Russians have turned a blind eye to rampant looking in areas they claim their peacekeepers are operating. Indeed, several Israeli journalists were robbed at gunpoint by Russian troops. However, a Russian officer who had seen the incident returned the vehicle and its contents to the journalists 20 minutes later. The tends to lend credence to the reports of looting and other criminal acts by the Russians, although some Russian officers are acting professionally and imposing that professionalism on their ranks.

It's estimated that 15,000 Russian troops are in South Ossetia and Georgia.

Hot Air notes that the Russians are now withdrawing from Georgian territory but remaining in South Ossetia, and that the French diplomatic plan actually may have given the Russians the pretext to march on Tbilisi. Why? Well, apparently the French sold out the Georgians. There are definitely shades of Munich in 1938, where the Europeans sold out the Czechs and Chamberlain thought they had peace in their time.

So, what actually got the Russians to change their mind? An unexpected US response to the crisis - sending US troops into the region in the form of humanitarian aid. The Russians hadn't expected it. It wasn't something I had expected either, since the presence of US troops could have resulted in a shooting war between the US and Russians, which is something neither side wanted, but could have been inevitable with the Russians still operating inside Georgian territory.

The way the Russians and US handled this crisis can be explained through a fear of escalation. The Russians continued beyond South Ossetia into Georgia because the fear of escalation was low. They didn't see any signs that the US or EU would step in to back the Georgians. The US didn't want to get involved for fear of escalating and putting US troops directly into the line of fire.

However, the Russians continued advancing towards Tbilisi, and the US changed course, and the placement of humanitarian aid got the Russians to blink. Suddenly, it was the Russians who had to worry about escalation and they didn't want to run that risk either.

So, while the fear of escalation made the crisis initially worse - by encouraging Russian aggression, it was that same fear of escalation that got the Russians to back down.