Osama's Chef Enters Guilty Plea At Gitmo Tribunal

Score one for the tribunal system. Osama bin Laden's chef/bodyguard, Ibrahim al-Qosi, entered a guilty plea before the tribunal at Guantanamo Bay.

Osama Bin Laden's former cook and driver has pleaded guilty at a Guantanamo Bay tribunal to conspiracy and providing support for terrorism.

In a plea deal, Sudanese-born Ibrahim al-Qosi also admitted working as Bin Laden's bodyguard Afghanistan and helping him avoid capture by US forces.

Mr Qosi, 50, has been held at the US naval base on Cuba for eight years.

His plea represents the first conviction for the Obama administration at the controversial war crimes court.

The terms of the deal have yet to be made public.

UPDATE:
Thomas Joscelyn has background on Qosi.

New Charges Announced in NYC Subway Bomb Plots Against Adnan Shukrijumah

New charges are being announced against Adnan Shukrijumah in connection with the plot to blow up New York City subways.

Law enforcement officials say Adnan Shukrijumah will be named in an indictment in Brooklyn federal court Wednesday.

Shukrijumah has eluded the FBI for years and remains at large. He is among the top candidates to be al-Qaida's next head of external operations, the man in charge of planning attacks worldwide.

Authorities believe Shukrijumah met with a would-be suicide bomber in a plot that Attorney General Eric Holder called one of the most dangerous since 9/11.

This is in connection with the terror plot involving Najibullah Zazi and his cohorts.

The U.S. citizens were arrested in September 2009 before, prosecutors said, they could carry out a trio of suicide bombings in Manhattan. Najibullah Zazi and Zarein Ahmedzay have pleaded guilty and admitted planning to detonate homemade bombs on the subway during rush hour. A third man, Adis Medunjanin, awaits trial.

Counterterrorism officials believe Ahmedzay, and perhaps the other two men, met Shukrijumah at a terror camp in Pakistan.

After 9/11, Shukrijumah, 34, was seen as one of al-Qaida's best chances to attack inside the U.S. or Europe, captured terrorist Abu Zubaydah told U.S. authorities. Shukrijumah studied at a community college in Florida but when the FBI showed up to arrest him as a material witness to a terrorism case in 2003, he already had left the country.

In 2004, then-Attorney General John Ashcroft called Shukrijumah a "clear and present danger" to the United States. The U.S. is offering a $5 million reward for information leading to his capture.

UPDATE:
The NYC subway plot is also being connected to a similar plot in England.

Iran Commits To Stoning Another Woman For Adultery

The death penalty in Iran for many crimes is stoning, and it is frequently carried out against women who have committed adultery. They are buried up to their neck, and then stoned by a crowd of people. The grisly scene can play out for a half hour or more until the woman is brutally killed.

Men who are to be stoned are buried up to their waist - and suffer even more pain and brutality before succumbing.



Iranian judges found that one such woman should be stoned to death:

Convicted of adultery in 2006, Ashtiani has been sentenced to be stoned to death for her alleged crime.

Originally sentenced to 99 lashes for her alleged "illicit relationship outside of marriage," Ashtiani endured that punishment in front of her then 17-year-old son.

"The authorities asked if I wanted to wait outside. I said no. I could not leave my mother alone."

Sajjad says it is a day he will never forget. But, he says, that day he thought the worst was over.

"I was thinking, OK, they hit her, now it's finished. They told me this process was finished. She's done. She's free to go. "

But then a judges' panel in Tabriz suspected Ashtiani of being involved in her husband's murder and re-opened her case.

She was cleared of the murder charges, but the panel re-examined Ashtiani's adultery sentence, and based on unspecified "judges' knowledge," decided she should be put to death for the alleged affair.

All that is despite evidence that she was coerced into confessing to a crime she didn't commit.

Welcome to the Baked Apple

After cooking at 103 yesterday in Central Park and triple digits throughout the area, the NYC metro area is only supposed to simmer at around 98 (though it will again hit 100 in many parts of the area). Some weather people here were saying that an onshore flow and some clouds will keep temps down a little, but that only means that the humidity will be pumped up to unconscionable levels. If anything, the higher humidity will make it feel even worse outside than yesterday.

Demand for power is hovering near all time record demand. Power lines are sagging with some scattered outages, but no widespread blackouts to report. Con Ed and PSE&G are calling on customers to reduce their demand. Amtrak and NJ Transit are dealing with power and rail issues as the temps are causing problems with both the overhead lines sagging and the rails expanding and coming out of alignment (causing a possible derailment hazard) primarily on the NJ Coast Line, Morris and Essex, and the Northeast Corridor. That means fewer trains running and those that are are doing so slower. The MTA has had to deal with reduced power in some parts of the subway system so signals and elevators/escalators are off inconveniencing commuters.

More importantly, people must check on the elderly, infirm, and children. One person died yesterday from the sweltering heat. Cooling centers and pools are open all over the area, and it's a good idea to limit outside exposure.

Prosecutors Looking To Cut Deals In Russian Spy Case? UPDATE: Spy Swap?

Prosecutors may be looking at the political fallout and the possible revelations of classified intel techniques used to discover and arrest the 10 alleged Russian spies.

The proposed resolution could lead to a series of relatively quick guilty pleas, allowing the defendants to receive some kind of legal benefit and the government to avoid a series of protracted trials.

All 10 defendants who are in custody have been charged with conspiring to act as unregistered agents of a foreign government, and eight were also charged with conspiring to commit money laundering. The eight could face up to 25 years in prison if convicted. Another defendant is at large.

Prosecutors have not accused the defendants of passing classified information to their Russian handlers. But a resolution would allow the United States government to avoid a long legal battle in which sensitive information about intelligence techniques could be exposed.

Such a deal would also eliminate the possibility that a high-profile case would serve as an irritant to relations between the United States and Russia. Although both countries have made clear they do not expect the charges to damage relations, the case has dominated worldwide news accounts in the past week, and indictments and potential trials could keep the case on the front pages for months to come.

Neither defense lawyers nor the federal prosecutor’s office in Manhattan would comment on any such talks, and the talks may end up going nowhere. But court documents made public last week by the government show that some defendants were freely discussing their ties to Russian intelligence and perhaps that will ease the way to negotiated pleas.

Watch for some kind of plea deal where the alleged spies enter guilty pleas on some counts and face reduced sentences so as to avoid a protracted legal battle in court and the possible fallout on US-Russian foreign relations.

UPDATE:
It looks like a deal may involve a spy swap.

Relatives said a researcher convicted in Russia of espionage has told them he'll be released. They claim Igor Sutyagin will be sent to Britain in a swap for Russians recently arrested for spying in the United States, which include two Montclair residents and a Seton Hall student.

The Russian Foreign Ministry had no comment.

Sutyagin's brother, Dmitry, spoke to reporters today. He said his brother was told of the arrangement by Russian officials who met him Tuesday at a prison.

Sutyagin said he was made to sign a confession. He maintains his innocence and does not want to leave Russia.

San Francisco Moves To Ban Sugared Beverages From Sale On City Property

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome has moved to ban sales of soda and other sugared beverages from city property (HT: Arley Ward). How long before the City rethinks this asinine policy when it loses the revenue it gets from soda sales from vending machines on its property?

The San Francisco policy, the result of an executive order from Mayor Gavin Newsom, dictates vending machines on city property can no longer dispense Coke, Pepsi and other calorically sweetened beverages. Sports drinks and artificially sweetened water also are included in the ban.

Juices must be 100 percent fruits or vegetables with no added sweeteners.

Like others pushing bans or so-called "fat taxes," Newsom's goal is a thinner, healthier citizenry.

But is government the solution? Despite a soda-tax bill still pending in the Michigan Legislature, momentum seems weak, at best.

This is nanny statism in action.

And the motives are always pure - to improve the health of the citizenry, even though sodas by themselves aren't the problem. It's that people simply choose to eat more and don't engage in portion control and opt to super size their portions. That's a personal choice they've made.

The nanny state response is to tax items that they deem as being bad, and when the revenues fall short (and harm the programs funded by these revenues), they demand tax hikes to keep those programs going.

Obesity is a big problem in some parts of the country, but taxing soda isn't going to stop it. Getting people out of their damned couches and exercising will. Portion control will help. Taxing food items isn't (and most parts of the country exempt food from sales and use tax). After all, you get more calories from a steak than you do soda.

Pushing Israel Into A Corner?

Don't think that the New York Times' timing on the release of a report about US tax exempt donations going to the construction of housing in the West Bank wasn't purposeful on the eve of President Barack Obama's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu. There are some reports that indicate that Obama will try to pressure Israel into making some kind of apology to Turkey over the flotilla raid, even though the backers of the flotilla were intent on creating a violent incident for propaganda purposes and Israel was within its sovereign rights to defend itself from terrorists who would use running the blockade as a means to regroup, resupply, and rearm.

For starters, the tax exempt donations don't only include the West Bank - but Jerusalem as well. And as I keep pointing out ad nauseum, the construction of housing is not an impediment to peace. Housing can always be sold or transferred. It's been done before by Israel - twice. Israel withdrew from Sinai and returned thousands of houses built for settlers there in multiple communities. Israel again withdrew from Gaza in 2005 and transferred those communities to the Gazans, who promptly used them as terror training camps and destroyed the infrastructure, including greenhouses donated by US businessmen for providing an incubator for Gazan economic development.

Other reports indicate that the US will demand that Israel move to a two-state solution immediately. Such reports deny reality and again show the folly of diplomats trying to invent facts instead of taking the situation as it truly is - psuedoreality.

The fact is that Hamas and Fatah continue to refuse Israel's existence and deny a 2-state solution. That is the impediment to peace. When you have Fatah honoring a mass murderer who killed Israeli athletes at Munich in 1972 as conquering hero, your priorities are wrong.

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has euologized Abu Dauod, the mastermind of the massacre of 11 Israeli athletes at the Munch Olympics in 1972 and who died Saturday. “He is missed. He was one of the leading figures of Fatah and spent his life in resistance and sincere work as well as physical sacrifice for his people's just causes,” said Abbas.

Dauod's life's work was focused on murdering Israelis.

Focusing on housing is a distraction from the real problems - that Israel simply does not have a partner in peace. It doesn't matter how many concessions Israel makes, it will never be sufficient and the Palestinians will not accept any such deal because they will always demand more.

Mind you that the PA never even bothered with counterproposals to the two Israeli peace deals made - one with Arafat in 2000 and later with Abbas.

Now, who exactly is Israel to make peace with when the Palestinians themselves can't agree on who is their representative - Hamas that continues to seek Israel's destruction openly and obviously, or Fatah, which is content to let other terror groups do their dirty work while continuing to indoctrinate another generation to hate Israel's very existence. Neither terror group can dominate the other, and each has its own territories to operate from.

The Rebuilding of Ground Zero, Part 104

While the hearing for the controversial Cordoba House is scheduled for next week, there are plenty of other happenings in and around Ground Zero that include a couple of lawsuits and even a little bit of positive construction news.

Let's start with the good news. Here's an updated panoramic photo from one of Ground Zero's twin memorial pools as it nears completion.

Now for the lawsuits: 

The mess with the former Deutsche Bank building demolition continues as lawsuits are again threatened over costs for the demolition. Bovis and the LMDC had agreed to wait until after the building was demolished before suing each other, but with the building now only a dozen stories tall, the lawsuit talk is again coming to the forefront. The demolition costs grew along with the delays as Bovis and other companies involved negligently operated the site and the deaths of two firefighters exposed serious problems with oversight on safety on the site.

Then, a group of victims' families are applying for certiorari to the US Supreme Court to hear their case that the City of New York must remove more than a million tons of World Trade Center debris from the Fresh Kills landfill where it was disposed following the attacks because it may still contain remains of their loved ones. They are demanding the city give it their loved ones a proper burial.

Charging that their constitutional due process and religious freedom rights have been violated, a group of families of 9/11 victims have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to force New York City to move more than a million tons of World Trade Center debris from atop a garbage heap at the Fresh Kills landfill.

The group, known as the WTC Families for Proper Burial, says it is unacceptable that even the unidentified remains of victims, mingled with the Trade Center debris, should remain atop household trash. After being rejected by a federal judge and appellate court in a lawsuit seeking to force the city to move the debris, the WTC Families filed the necessary petition for a writ of certiorari on June 1, asking the Supreme Court to decide on the case.

The city has rejected the WTC Families’ assertions as untrue, and says it intends to file a voluntary response to the petition by the Aug. 5 deadline, laying out for the justices why they should not hear the case.

While I feel for the victims' families, there is no way that the City or anyone else can move the 1 million tons or more of debris and find an acceptable location. All manner of heroic measures were taken to find the victims - nearly all of whom were pulverized by the collapsing towers and then consumed in fires that lasted for weeks following the attacks.

In one last bit of Ground Zero related news, the Queen of England will be here today. She will be stopped at Ground Zero to pay her respects along with a stop at the UN and to visit with rescue workers who were at Ground Zero in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

Hope she likes Baked Apple since the temps in New York are going to top 100 degrees today.

And This Is a Bad Thing?

Low interest rates aren't spurring home sales because of stringent lending requirements. I don't see bad news in all that. It means that people are being checked to see whether they have the capacity to repay their obligations and banks are doing the job they should have been doing all along.

An odd scene has been playing out lately in the offices of mortgage brokers and bankers around the country.

Mortgage rates have sunk to levels not seen in more than a half-century — a seductive 4.58 percent for an average 30-year fixed loan. Yet brokers and lenders report not a flood but a trickle of customers.

So what's going on?

Call it a tale of the haves and have-nots.

The haves are those who stand to save money from refinancing and have the financial standing to do so. Since mortgage rates have been low for so long, most of them already have refinanced in the past 18 months. Doing so again wouldn't be worth the cost for most.

The have-nots? Those are the millions of Americans pummeled by the housing collapse. They have little or no home equity or no money for down payments. Or they lack the credit or steady income to get or refinance a mortgage.

The result is that brokers like Ginny Ferguson are filling their days doing something other than handling a stampede of customers buying homes or refinancing.

Ferguson, CEO of Heritage Valley Mortgage in Pleasanton Calif., has managed to stay busy: She's archiving files, reviewing marketing plans and calling previous clients and agents to try to drum up business.

It means that home sales aren't recovering to their pre-boom levels, which is continuing to cause consternation among the so-called experts who want to see home sales recover as part of the leading edge of the economic recovery.

The situation also means that people can't afford to refinance because their properties remain underwater and/or can't afford to move even if it is downsizing because their liabilities exceed their assets.

Some of the experts think that the strict lending requirements have gone too far and limited economic growth. The solution to the ongoing real estate market isn't to revert to the very ways that led us down the path to a real estate bubble. The market needs time to recover in an orderly fashion and that just takes time.

The homeowner tax credit accelerated sales among qualified buyers from one fiscal quarter into another. It didn't create additional demand and additional sales. Allowing homeowners who were already in the process to obtain the credit even after the June 30 deadline isn't going to spur additional sales - it's merely going to spread money around among those who are already spending it.

Oil Continues Gushing From BP Well as BP and Government Struggle With Spill's Effects

What's billed as the world's largest oil skimmer is currently being tested in the Gulf near the spill site - and we may know today whether the Coast Guard and other government agencies and BP will sign off on the A Whale going into full operation.

The ship, which swallows water with oil then separates it, can skim about 21 million gallons of oil a day. That's at least 250 times the amount that modified fishing vessels currently conducting skimming operations have been able to contain, according to Taiwanese company TMT shipping, which owns the vessel.

Meanwhile, BP said Monday that the cost of its response to the Gulf oil disaster now totals approximately $3.12 billion. That includes containment, relief well drilling, grants to Gulf states, claims paid and federal costs, the oil giant said.

A total of about 550 skimming vessels were out in the Gulf on Sunday, according to a spokeswoman for the Unified Command Joint Information Center in Houma, Louisiana. But with oil still pouring into the sea at a rate of tens of thousands of barrels a day, federal authorities closed a new section of the Gulf off Louisiana to fishing on Sunday.

The A Whale could do in a day what an entire fleet of skimmers has been able to accomplish in weeks. So what's the holdup? Well, the ship doesn't separate all oil from the water. A small percentage does get through. That should be no excuse for the skimmer to go in operation since the sheer volume of this disaster demands using extraordinary means to help control the hundreds of millions of gallons of oil that have harmed the Gulf.



BP says that it's spent more than $3 billion trying to contain the spill and to shut down the oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico. That is a fraction of the cost to the economy around the Gulf Coast effected by the destruction of sensitive wetlands and ecosystems, and the loss of jobs and livelihoods throughout the Gulf Coast.

Lockerbie Bomber Should Never Have Been Released

It was a travesty of justice when a Scottish judge ruled that the convicted bomber of Pan Am Flight 103 was allowed to be released back to Libya. The judge had enabled his release for health reasons - taking into account that he had prostate cancer. It is even more so when you have reports that his health situation is such that he might now live another 10 years.

Professor Karol Sikora, who assessed Abdelbaset Ali Mohmet al-Megrahi for the Libyan authorities almost a year ago, told The Sunday Times it was "embarrassing" the bomber had outlived his three-month prognosis.

Megrahi, 58, is the only person convicted of the 1988 bombing of a US Pan Am jumbo jet over Lockerbie, which left 270 dead.

The Scottish government provoked outrage from the United States when it released him from prison in August 2009 on compassionate grounds because he dying of metastatic prostate cancer.

In Scotland, prisoners are eligible for release on compassionate grounds if they have fewer than three months to live.

A report in the Sunday Times said Libyan authorities, keen to secure Megrahi’s release, asked several experts to put a three-month estimate on the bomber’s life but Professor Sikora was the only one to agree.

Professor Sikora, the dean of medicine at Buckingham University and medical director of CancerPartnersUK in London, was paid for his medical assessment of Megrahi at Greenock prison on July last year.

Sikora is embarrassed that he got this terrorist's prognosis wrong. Thanks for that. His misguided decision enabled a convicted terrorist to go free. Scotland should seriously reconsider its "compassionate" release program.

The decision to release this terrorist was made in part because of oil and gas deals between the British government and the Libyan government. The compassionate release program enabled all this - and in the process the only convicted terrorist involved in the murder of 270 people got just a few days in prison per each victim.

Accused Russian Spy Embarrassed About Photos?

If you're an accused Russian spy living in the US, whose father was apparently a member of the Russian intel service and espionage may run in the family, the thing you worry about is all those photos of you showing up online?

Are you kidding me?

Anna Chapman's lawyer says his client is embarrassed about all those photos making the rounds. Excuse me, but Chapman posted those photos and videos online herself and she has no one else to blame for becoming infamous by being arrested as part of a Russian spy ring (and which several members have admitted to using aliases to hide their true identities.

UPDATE:
The NY Post is revealing that Chapman took topless photos and her ex-husband has made them public. The ex-husband also told of her sexual prowess and exploits - and while Chapman may not want it known that she was skilled in all manner of sexual pursuits, none of this would have become public had she not been arrested and charged as a spy.

If anything, her sexual prowess and skills were further tools to use and exploit her contacts for information as a honey trap.

2% Property Tax Cap In New Jersey's Future

That the New Jersey legislature and Gov. Chris Christie could come to an agreement on a property tax cap wasn't all that surprising given the all too apparent need to deal with locality spending and its effect on property taxes. The size and scope is. I had expected that Gov. Christie would accept a statutory cap with a severely limited set of exemptions that was in the range of the Democrats' proposal of 2.9% versus the 2.5% constitutional cap that Christie proposed.

Instead, the agreement was for a 2% cap with four exceptions, down from the 14 proposed by the legislature. The exceptions are pretty significant, but marks a significant departure from the way localities prepared their budgets (and imposed tax hikes).

The agreement represents a series of compromises from both parties. It would limit property tax increases to 2 percent a year, lower than the current 4 percent cap and lower than previous proposals from Christie and Senate President Stephen Sweeney, D-Gloucester.

It would also decrease the number of expenses exempted from the cap, from 14 to four. Those four exemptions are pension benefits, health benefits, capital expenditures and certain emergencies. An exemption for spikes in school enrollment will remain in place.

A key feature of the proposal is allowing local residents to vote on whether to increase taxes higher than the cap allows. Currently this is handled by a local finance board, but if the proposal is adopted, the only way the cap could be exceeded would be with the approval by a majority of local residents.

"This reaches all the core principles everyone has been talking about," Christie said.

Standing with Christie at Saturday's press conference in the governor's outer office were Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean, R-Union, Assembly Minority Leader Alex DeCroce, R-Morris, and Sweeney.

"They said it couldn't be done," Sweeney said. "Well, we proved them wrong, Governor."

Notably absent was Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver, D-Essex, whose support remains in doubt.

"The speaker has not been part of any closed-door deal," spokesman Tom Hester said in a statement. "As the speaker has said repeatedly, we will thoroughly vet any proposal."

Still, Christie remained confident about the plan's prospects in the Legislature.

Happy Fourth of July!

And what would the Fourth be without the Boston Pops:

Honoring Terrorists

The mastermind of the Munich Olympics terrorist attack, Mohammed Oudeh, not only gets a heroes burial in Syria where he'd lived for decades, but honorifics from rival terrorist organizations.

Mr. Oudeh oversaw the plans of the raid, in which eight Palestinian militants belonging to the Black September group broke into a dormitory at the Olympic village where Israeli athletes were sleeping and took them hostage in the early morning of Sept. 5, 1972. Two of the athletes, a weightlifter and a wrestling coach, tried to overpower the militants, and were shot and killed.

The militants ended up with nine hostages, whom they said they would release in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners being held by Israel.

Israel refused to negotiate and a standoff ensued for 20 hours, while static television images of an empty balcony on a gray, modern dormitory transfixed the world. The Israeli hostages and their Palestinian captors were eventually transported by helicopters to a military airfield, where they had been promised to be flown to Cairo. Instead, West German sharpshooters tried to rescue the Israelis, setting off a gun battle in which five Palestinians, a German police officer and the nine hostages were killed.

“I am proud of my father,” Mr. Oudeh’s daughter, Wafa Oudeh, said in a phone interview from Damascus, shortly after his burial in the section of a cemetery reserved for martyrs to the Palestinian cause. “As a father he was a special person. He was emotional and generous. He was devoted to his family and to Palestine. His death is like a mountain collapsing.”

In addition to Ms. Oudeh, he is survived by his wife, four other daughters, and a son.

Amin Maqboul, secretary general of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, the Palestine Liberation Organization faction to which Mr. Oudeh belonged, praised him as “a fighter of the highest order.”

Hamas, Fatah’s rival, released a statement mourning Mr. Oudeh.

The Islamists and terrorists just love to honor mass murdering terrorists. He was responsible for murdering athletes at the Olympics in images that are an indelible image of those Olympics.



Note too that this was a terrorist associated with Fatah and the PLO as one of its offshoots. Not only does Fatah recognize and memorialize this murderer, but Fatah's rival Hamas also takes time out from their internecine conflict to honor the murderer.

Meanwhile, a CNN reporter in Lebanon not only notes the death of a Hizbullah spiritual leader Muhammad Hussein Fadl-Allah, but mourns the loss. Classy.

A Whale Gets Put Through Its Paces

What's billed as the world's largest oil skimmer is being put through its paces by the US Coast Guard to see if it can do what its promoters promise. For the next 48 hours, the A Whale will be tested to see if it can process 600,000 barrels of water per day to separate out the oil slicked contaminants from sea water.

If it does work as advertised, it would be a massive upgrade to the oil gathering capabilities because the ship can work in heavier seas and process far more sea water than existing skimmers.

Landmarks Preservation Commission Sets July 13 Hearing For Cordoba House

The Landmarks Preservation Commission will be hearing comments from the community on July 13 on the proposed changes to 45 Park Place where a Muslim group proposes to build a mosque and community center called the Cordoba House. It is situated two blocks North of Ground Zero.

The hearing is being held at Hunter College because the LPC's hearing room was insufficient for the throngs of people expected to show up.

The Observer notes that there was opposition to a mosque proposed for Staten Island, but doesn't note that there were good reasons to question that project - the backers of the Staten Island mosque proposal had ties to Islamic terrorists and are considered a front group for those terror groups.

The reason that the LPC is involved in the approval process here is because the Cordoba House proponents want to alter the exterior of the building, and the LPC could demand alterations to the exterior plans or reject the exterior design altogether. This wouldn't necessarily end the Cordoba House project as opponents would like to think, but it would likely add cost and time to the project to comply.

First There Was Iron Man; Now There's Iron Baby

Okay, the baby in the iron man suit may not be Robert Downey Jr., but he may actually be cuter:

Delaying and Denying A Necessary Reality Check

It looks like Illinois wants to get in the game for having one of the worst budget situations in the nation. Illinois' fiscal situation rivals that of New York or California, and no one in the state wants to do a damned thing about it.

Like those other states, Illinois spent billions more than it could afford and there are no federal bailouts awaiting it this year.

For the last few years, California stood more or less unchallenged as a symbol of the fiscal collapse of states during the recession. Now Illinois has shouldered to the fore, as its dysfunctional political class refuses to pay the state’s bills and refuses to take the painful steps — cuts and tax increases — to close a deficit of at least $12 billion, equal to nearly half the state’s budget.

Then there is the spectacularly mismanaged pension system, which is at least 50 percent underfunded and, analysts warn, could push Illinois into insolvency if the economy fails to pick up.

States cannot go bankrupt, technically, but signs of fiscal crackup are easy to see. Legislators left the capital this month without deciding how to pay 26 percent of the state budget. The governor proposes to borrow $3.5 billion to cover a year’s worth of pension payments, a step that would cost about $1 billion in interest. And every major rating agency has downgraded the state; Illinois now pays millions of dollars more to insure its debt than any other state in the nation.

“Their pension is the most underfunded in the nation,” said Karen S. Krop, a senior director at Fitch Ratings. “They have not made significant cuts or raised revenues. There’s no state out there like this. They can’t grow their way out of this.”

As the recession has swept over states and cities, it has laid bare economic weakness and shoddy fiscal practices. Only an infusion of federal stimulus money allowed many states to avert deep layoffs last year.

States face a choice. Make those layoffs, reduce benefits to state workers, or raise taxes.

Raising taxes isn't an option because taxpayers are sick of funding state workers' benefits that exceed those of the private sector. Reducing benefits isn't an option because the unions generally refuse to give up hard earned benefits and they also stand in the way of layoffs. Layoffs aren't always an option either because the politicians get flack from the unions, who form a major constituency to be satisfied in elections.

So, the states go from bad to worse in their fiscal situation.

The politicians make awful decisions to leverage future state fiscal responsibility to fund current obligations - borrowing heavily, which increases the debt load. Ignoring the pension obligations or worse - borrowing to make payments has made the Illinois situation a particularly perilous one.

And while the NY Times wants to blame the failure to raise taxes on the state GOP, Democrats have been the ones to pass budgets that are in deficit year after year - ignoring the balanced budget requirements. Corruption and graft have left the state devoid of any leadership.

Actress In Harry Potter Movies Nearly Victim of Honor Killing

Afshan Azad, the actress who plays Padma Patil in the Harry Potter movies was allegedly attacked and threatened by her father and brother over Azad's relationship with an unnamed man. The brother is also accused of assaulting her.

Afshan Azad, 22, who has appeared in four of the blockbuster movies as Padma Patil, is now believed to be staying with friends in London.

Her father Abdul Azad, 54, and brother Ashraf Azad, 28, both of Longsight in Manchester, were arrested and charged.

Both are accused of threatening to kill her.

Ashraf Azad is also accused of assaulting his sister causing her actual bodily harm.

They appeared at Manchester Magistrates’ Court on Tuesday and the case was adjourned until July 12 for committal proceedings to crown court.

They had been in custody until this week’s court appearance when they were bailed.

As part of their bail conditions, they have to abide by an 11pm to 6am curfew and must not travel to London or contact an unnamed man.

Miss Azad lived with her father, mother Nilofar and her three brothers.

This has all the hallmarks of a threatened honor killing. Honor killings are common in parts of South Asia, including among Bengalis (the region straddling Bangladesh and India). It is also common among Muslim populations.

Here's hoping that both her father and brother are prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. Despite moving to the UK, some population groups cling to these barbaric notions of family dishonor and hope to impose all manner of restrictions and strictures on women. Those who don't toe that strict line are subject to violence, as in Azad's case.

100 Great Movie Quotes

See if you agree.

I'm sure they left more than a few out.

The Carbonated Beverage Tax Proposal In NY Fell Flat Because It WAS A Tax Grab

New York's budget situation remains an absolute disaster, even as Gov. David Paterson is vetoing 6,900 member items contained within the budget bills. One of the Governor's proposals to close the budget deficit was to impose an additional sales tax on carbonated beverages and other sugared beverages (excluding certain fruit juices).

That proposal thankfully got canned, and while the New York Times wants to blame the beverage industry for the proposal going flat, the truth is that taxpayers have recognized that the state is spending too much money and additional tax revenue isn't the problem. The problem is obscene state spending.

For all the talk about how this is a health measure to reduce calorie consumption, we do not tax foods and beverages based on the calories contained therein. No one would stand for that, but apparently the nanny staters think that taxing soda is perfectly acceptable. Watch for these same people to contemplate taxing candies, cookies, and other junk foods, even as portion sizes at restaurants and within the homes remain super-sized.

The problems with obesity in the country aren't new, but they are getting worse. Taxing soda isn't going to solve it.

Addressing the combination of sedentary lifestyles and portion control would go a long way to reducing obesity and all the health problems that it causes.

Individuals must get out of the habit of the super-size portions, and they can start by teaching their kids of the importance of proper portion size combined with exercise. Adults can also opt for smaller portions. While many restaurants focus on portion size as a way of showing value, they would do much better if they reduced portion size commensurate with a reduced price. After all, a person does not need to eat 1 pound of pasta as a portion, when a proper portion size for a dinner would be a fraction of that.

Home Efficiency Update

As my loyal readers know, I've been busy upgrading my 80 year old home with all kinds of energy efficient appliances and upgrades. Since I bought the house, I've installed insulated garage doors that replaced the original old carriage doors, new front and side doors, added insulation to the attic, and just finished installing a new hot water heater.

The old water heater had an efficiency rating of .53. The new one has a .62 efficiency rating, which will translate into a savings of nearly $400 per year at $1.2 per therm. That means I'll recover the costs of the water heater installation within four years and will save money thereafter. Another way to calculate the costs is here. Those savings will add up the longer the heater remains in operation.

I had considered a tankless system, which would have gotten far higher efficiencies, but the house layout didn't make that feasible because you need direct venting to the outside and minimum clearances between the vents and windows to avoid bringing the exhaust back into the house. The higher initial cost for a tankless system may be recouped fairly quickly when you have a high costs for gas or electricity.

Either option will definitely cut your energy costs significantly over older model hot water heaters. The unit I replaced dated to 1994. It would make sense to review your existing model's efficiency rating to see whether upgrading to a new model makes sense for your situation and depending on what model is chosen, you could qualify for federal tax credits or state rebates.

People don't realize just how much money they'd save by upgrading their HVAC, although there are steps that can be taken to reduce energy costs that you can do without bringing in experts. At a minimum, reducing the temperature setting on the hot water heater means that your hot water heater doesn't have to work as much to keep the tank at the necessary temperature. Insulating the hot water pipes can also reduce costs. Putting aerators on sinks and low-flow shower heads will further reduce the energy costs and also reduce water consumption (another efficiency step).

Fix the Immigration Mess

When people call for a fix to the immigration system, they are really referring to the mess with illegal immigrants. These are people who entered the US illegally - without going through passport or border control or who have overstayed their visas and otherwise not complied with US immigration law.

There are believed to be 15 million people in the US illegally. That's a considerable amount, and many of the plans bandied about rely on some form of amnesty.

I can't understand why we as a nation would reward people who have broken the US immigration law get some manner of advantage over those people who came to the US legally and conformed to US law.

President Obama knows the system is broken. Republicans like Gov. Chris Christie know the system is broken. That's about it when it comes to consensus.

The problem is what to do about it.

Speaking to lawmakers, academics, and community leaders gathered at American University, Obama touted his plan by stressing the immeasurable contributions that immigrants have made to the United States, and the frequent discrimination they faced throughout history. "Immigrants have always helped to build and defend this country," Obama said.

Obama also put the onus on Republicans to pass a comprehensive immigration law, saying Congress cannot pass it without GOP votes. "That is the political and mathematical reality," he said.

While Obama's plan would include a path to citizenship as well as tighter borders, its chances for passage in Congress don't appear to be great.

Congressional Republicans, and some Democrats, said the government should focus on better law enforcement better moving on to such things as guest worker programs. In the meantime, lawmakers who are already grappling with new Wall Street regulations and an energy bill are also looking at congressional elections only four months from tomorrow.

Legal immigrants have helped build and defend the country - that's not and hasn't been the problem confronting the country these days. It's about the illegal immigrants. It's about border control and enforcing the laws already on the books. Throwing more laws on the books and poor/inadequate enforcement means that the problem continues.

Some kind of pathway for making illegal immigrants status legal is going to happen, but how to make that happen while giving preference to those who legally came to the US and are seeking citizenship through the current channels should be the priority.

To me, amnesty is a non starter because it disincentivizes people coming to the US via legal channels. Why bother going through the hoops if you can cross the border, start up a life here and a few years down the road be given the rights of citizenship or legal resident.

I'd support some kind of fee/penalty, application, and pathway to legal residency - from which citizenship can then follow (if following all the guidelines during that legal residency period). Those who do not pay the fees/penalties, do not fulfill the terms of the application and then the legal residency requirements should be deported (as is and should be current immigration law practice).

The path should give priority to legal immigrants, and not short circuit that approach for illegal aliens.

New York Finally Moving To No-Fault Divorce

New York is about to make divorces a whole lot easier, and I think this is a good thing because it is about to provide for no-fault divorces. New York was one of the last holdouts on no-fault divorces. The state had required to provide grounds for divorce such as adultery, and required couples to separate for a 1-year period prior to the divorce.

The Legislature passed the bill in overwhelming fashion, and Gov. Paterson looks like he'll sign the bill even as he's been busy vetoing legislative pork items added to an already bloated budget.

Not everyone is happy with this move. The Catholic Council is opposed, claiming that it would be easier to get a divorce than to get out of a wireless phone contract (no - there's no hyperbole there, not at all). What I don't get is why the National Organization of Women's New York chapter opposes this since it makes it easier for women to get out of bad marriage situations

Unemployment Data Again Points To Weakness In Economy

There really isn't any good way for people to spin the latest unemployment data. The temporary boost due to the government hiring workers for the census is coming to an end, so the hundreds of thousands hired for that job are again unemployed and aren't being replaced.

Employers cut 125,000 jobs last month, the most since October, the Labor Department said Friday. The loss was driven by the end of 225,000 temporary census jobs. Businesses added a net total of 83,000 workers, an improvement from May. But that's also below March and April totals.

The unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level since July 2009. But it fell because 652,000 people gave up on their job searches and left the labor force. People who are no longer looking for work aren't counted as unemployed.

The report indicates that businesses are still slow to hire amid a weak economic recovery. Analysts expected private payrolls to rise by about 110,000, according to Thomson Reuters.

The nation still has 7.9 million fewer private payroll jobs than it did when the recession began. It takes about 100,000 new jobs a month to keep up with population growth. The economy needs to create jobs at least twice that pace to quickly bring down the jobless rate.

Hanging on to the unemployment rate (the U3 rate) dropping to 9.5% from 9.7% isn't exactly reassuring since the drop was entirely due to hundreds of thousands of people deciding to get out of the job hunt altogether. Reducing the number of people looking for a job reduces the rate - not a way to organically improve employment.

Private sector hiring is still sorely lagging, and this continues to hamper any kind of economic recovery because businesses aren't hiring, individuals aren't buying big ticket items such as homes or cars, and all this further complicates states and federal budgeting - adding to deficits because of a lack of revenues.

Movies in 30 Seconds

How about Office Space:



Or maybe the Harry Potter movies (1-5):

Economic Data Shows Signs of Continued Weakness

There was some mixed news on manufacturing. The good news is that manufacturing appears to be growing, albeit slowly. The annualized rate would be 4.8% growth this year, if it holds.

The problem is that the bad news outweighs whatever good news there was. The growth is much slower than anyone anticipated, and decelerated sharply in the past month. New orders dropped significantly, and it doesn't look like there's any strength behind the sector - so watch for the annualized rate to drop when the next numbers are released.

Moreover, the data fell short of economists expectations (again). The economists continue missing the weakness in the economy, and I have to suspect that the experts are using wishful thinking in determining their numbers.

Combine that data with the fact that the number of people signing contracts to buy homes dropped to record levels.

The number of buyers who signed contracts to purchase homes tumbled in May, a sign the housing recovery can't survive without government incentives.Punctuating the point, construction spending also fell in May amid a slump in home and commercial building.
The National Association of Realtors said Thursday its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes dropped 30 percent in May from April. The index fell to 77.6 from 110.9. May's reading was the lowest dating back to 2001.

Memo to the idiots writing the stories and the politicians who listen to this "advice". The reason that the sales dropped is because sales were goosed because of the homeowner tax credits - robbing sales from one period to boost another period. Now that the credit is no longer available, the market shows the true state of affairs - a lack of buyers due to credit tightness, lack of funds, and general uncertainty in the market, sellers who can't sell because they're underwater and therefore have to short sell (a far more complex deal than a standard sale). New home sales have dropped off a cliff, and existing home sales aren't much better.

Together, it's setting up for a renewed correction in real estate prices in many parts of the country because there is little support for the current levels.

My advice to the Administration and Congress - do no harm. Do not extend the homeowner credit, which only helps people who are already seeking a home and are therefore more likely to shift sales to match the credit terms. Fight the urge to lower interest rates further (which when they rebound helps cause problems for people who can't afford the readjusted mortgage rates in ARMs). Let the market sort this out in an orderly fashion. It's going to be painful, but better that than spending billions and extending the pain out over an even longer period of time to minimal effect.

The economic situation has improved only marginally since the recession started, and the real estate sector continues to act as a drag on the economy at large. That's not surprising given that the real estate sector was one reason for the economic growth in the past decade. With home prices sagging, the amount of money homeowners have to spend on items has declined, and demand for new housing has dropped since there is a glut of housing in certain markets. The glut has to be absorbed in order for the market to truly stabilize and no amount of homeowner tax credits will do that job. It will take a steady increase in buyers and improvement in the credit markets for that to happen.

UPDATE:
GM released its sales figures, and they too are mixed. June sales are better than the year-ago figures, but are down from May 2010. What the GM data is missing (and has always been a problem) is that we don't know how much money GM makes on each of those sales. It's always been the auto industry's problem - tallying up sales of vehicles without noting whether it's making money on each of those sales. We just don't have enough information to say whether this data shows GM returning to health or continues to limp along.

UPDATE:
Congress has sent to President Obama legislation that would allow potential homeowners the opportunity to get the homeowner tax credit even though they missed the June 30 deadline for closings. It would provide yet another extension for those deals already in the pipeline.

The legislation gives buyers until Sept. 30 to complete their purchases and qualify for tax credits of up to $8,000. Under the original terms, buyers had until April 30 to get a signed sales contract and until June 30 to complete the sale.

The bill only allows people who already have signed contracts to finish at the later date.

Congress also approved the National Flood Insurance Program, which buyers need to qualify for a mortgage for a home located in a flood zone.

"We're elated," said Ron Phipps of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I.

About 180,000 buyers needed the tax credit extension, the National Association of Realtors estimated.

Mind you that this doesn't actually increase home sales, and that these people would have been buying these homes in any event.

Russian Spy Case Updates; Chapman's Dad A Russian Diplomat; Expect Denial of Bail; Admission By Juan Lazaro

A group of alleged Russian spies are to appear in court today to request bail. Don't expect the judge to authorize bail, not when one of the suspects, who was caught in Cyprus and released on bail, escaped without a trace.

Christopher Robert Metsos, 54, was nabbed Tuesday by Cypriot police as he prepared to board a flight to Budapest with a Canadian passport, which was seized.

For some reason, he was granted $25,000 bail and promptly vanished. He was last seen Tuesday night at the hotel where he had paid up front for two weeks.

Metsos' lawyers said they couldn't find him and Cypriot police said he didn't check in as required Wednesday night.

Cyprus, a Mediterranean island close to Europe, Asia and Africa, is famously infested with spies, arms dealers and other shady characters.

Escape is easy: Frequent ferries run from the Turkish northern part of the divided island to Turkey, Syria or Lebanon.

It's called a flight risk, and these people are a flight risk. Therefore, bail is not sufficient.

It also turns out that Anna Chapman's father was a Russian diplomat.

The father of the alleged Russian spy Anna Chapman works as a senior diplomat in Russia's ministry of foreign affairs, Russian media reported today, a revelation that is likely to further strain ties between Moscow and Washington.

Friends said that Chapman's father, Vasily Kushchenko, worked in Russia's embassy in Kenya from the late 1990s, and may even have been the ambassador there. It is more likely, however, that he occupied a more junior post, and then possibly served a further stint abroad before returning to Moscow.

According to Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, Kushchenko continues to work at Russia's foreign ministry, known by its Russian initials as MID. Today a foreign ministry spokesman refused to confirm or deny the report. "We can't answer this. There may be official commentary later," the spokesman said.

Neighbors are still stunned over the revelations:



UPDATE:
No word on whether bail has been set in the case, but here's a copy of the complaint:

Sealed Complaint: U.S. Investigates Alleged Russian Spy Ring

UPDATE:
"Juan Lazaro" one of the people arrested, and who happened to be married to another person implicated in the plot, Vicky Pelaez (who worked for Spanish language daily El Diario in New York City), has admitted to be working for the Russian Intel Service.

"Juan Lazaro", one of the suspects in an alleged Russian spy ring, has admitted that he worked for Russia's intelligence service, according to a bail letter provided by the United States Attorney's office in the Southern District of New York.

The document states Lazaro made a "lengthy post-arrest statement on June 27th," after he waived his Miranda rights, in which he allegedly told federal agents that he was not born in Uruguay, that "Juan Lazaro" is not his real name, that his house in Yonkers had been "paid for by the 'Service' and although he loved his son, he would not violate his loyalty to the 'Service' even for his son."

The document also says "Lazaro," who is married to co-defendant Vicky Pelaez, told agents she delivered letters to the "Service" on his behalf, and that he refused to provide his real name to prosecutors.

UPDATE:
Pelaez is the only one to receive bail today. She is out on $250,000 bail and confined to house arrest. Her husband's bail hearing was postponed. Richard and Cynthia Murphy of Montclair were denied bail.

NYC Terror Plot Had Connections With Al Qaeda's Adnan Shukrijumah

It had been suspected that the terror plot involving Najibullah Zazi involved suspected terrorists overseas, particularly in Pakistan, but it is now confirmed that among those being sought is one of the more dangerous al Qaeda operatives.

U.S. counterterrorism officials have linked one of the nation's most wanted terrorists to last year's thwarted plot to bomb the New York City subway system, authorities said Wednesday.

Current and former counterterrorism officials said top al-Qaida operative Adnan Shukrijumah met with one of the would-be suicide bombers in a plot that Attorney General Eric Holder called one of the most dangerous since the 9/11 terror attacks.

Federal prosecutors in Brooklyn have named Shukrijumah in a draft terrorism indictment but on Wednesday the Justice Department was still discussing whether to cite his role. Some officials feared that the extra attention might hinder efforts to capture him.

Shukrijumah's involvement shows how important the subway bombing plot was to al-Qaida's senior leadership. Intelligence officials believe Shukrijumah is one of the top candidates to become al-Qaida's next head of external operations, the man in charge of planning attacks worldwide.

I'm curious as to the reasoning why the indictment will somehow make it more difficult to capture him when he's already being sought with a $5 million reward for his whereabouts via the Rewards for Justice program and is on the FBI's Most Wanted List.

Shukrijumah has been linked to several other plots, including one in 2004, in which it was alleged that he had scouted sites in New York City and the Panama Canal.