Return to the Gulf Coast

It's been a while since I posted updates about the Gulf Coast recovery efforts. There are still ongoing problems and concerns with the levee system in and around New Orleans, the pace of rebuilding is far too slow for most everyone, and the rebuilding in New Orleans is now being threatened by delays in the review process that puts billions of at risk. There aren't enough people to actually handle the review process.

Unless the New Orleans City Council authorizes more employees for its City Planning Commission and Safety and Permits Department, delays in the planning review process may force developers to scrap billions of dollars worth of projects, potentially dealing a blow to the city’s recovery effort, a slate of prominent business people told council members this week.

The group, comprised of developers, real estate brokers and architects, presented a list of 30 projects, including a Poydras Street hotel and condominium tower proposed by New York real estate magnate Donald Trump, that they said have been submitted to the city but not yet scheduled for a public hearing because of backlogs in understaffed city departments.

Because developers cannot keep projects alive indefinitely, especially in light of a 2008 deadline by which projects must be put into commerce to qualify for federal tax incentives prompted by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, such a delay could mean the death of developments crucial to New Orleans’ revival.

“At this rate, the city cannot be rebuilt,” architect Peter Trapolin said. “Developers are going to back off projects if they can’t get the projects moving.”
The city also needs more planners to revise its comprehensive zoning ordinance to include recent changes to federal base flood elevation maps, said Zella May, a longtime member of the Downtown Development District board. More code inspectors also will be needed to make sure residents are complying with new rules, she said.

Problems could be averted and billions of dollars in investment salvaged if the council were to vote to spend several hundred thousand dollars to fill salaried positions left vacant after the city laid off 3,000 workers in the wake of Katrina, business leaders said.

Roads throughout the region, including New Orleans, are still in bad shape - especially due to all the new utility cuts to restore service.

Up the coast, the situation in Mississippi is somewhat improved, especially in casino country.

Rising from Ruin is a good roundup of the reactions from Mississippi.

Technorati: flood aid; hurricane katrina; katrina aid; kanye west; impeach bush; slidell; biloxi; gulfport; pascagoula; nagin; blanco; barbour.

All The News Fit To Print?

In today's New York Times, there's a story about how New Jersey Transit's brand new bilevel cars hit signals installed on the Northeast corridor during a test run. That incident occurred June 8.

“The bottom line is that Bombardier’s new rail cars were within the clearance envelope allowed by Amtrak,’’ she said. “And if the signals were properly located, the car should have cleared all signals.’’

Ms. Gagnon said she was told by Amtrak that an estimated 25 signals had recently been installed by a new company, and that the new signals hung lower from the ceilings of the two tunnels than those they had replaced. “We are confident that Amtrak will take appropriate actions to ensure clearance of the new cars,’’ she said.

Mr. Black said Amtrak “did not know for sure if the signals were installed incorrectly, but they certainly did not conform to the profile.’’

Considering that service on the Northeast Corridor has repeatedly suffered from breakdowns and slowdowns over the past two months due to power problems, doesn't the Times think that a problem where Amtrak's inability to communicate information to NJ Transit and keep tabs on its contractors that install equipment along the Northeast Corridor should have been published far sooner? This story recites the facts, but there's a far larger story that isn't being addressed by the Times.

The Bergen Record ran a story about the problem July 15. At that time, the Road Warrior noted that NJ Transit didn't think the story was worth even a press release at the time of the incident.

The problems with Amtrak are longstanding, as are those with NJ Transit. The Northeast Corridor in New Jersey is a mess, with high temperatures causing the catenary overhead wires failing regularly because equipment isn't installed to deal with the wires slackening in the heat. That forces the trains to run slower so that the overhead wires don't come down. NJ Transit, which recently installed light rail in Northern New Jersey, apparently didn't install the compensation systems either - as service was delayed because of the same problems.

The installation of signal equipment that apparently doesn't conform to Amtrak's specs, and the failure to oversee the installation shows that Amtrak has major problems on its hands that it simply can't attribute to being underfunded. There are problems with its oversight of contractor work.

The key in this instance is the failure of communications, and lack of oversight by Amtrak with its contractor, and then the failure to communicate the issues to NJ Transit.

This situation affects tens of thousands of commuters on a daily basis. It also affects all New Jersey taxpayers, who subsidize NJ Transit and its purchase of the bilevel cars. It also affects all taxpayers and commuters who rely on Amtrak service, and expect reliable and safe service.

I'm a regular commuter and a booster of mass transit, but I absolutely abhor the wasteful spending that goes on and the failure to ensure that work is done properly. This situation reeks of a failure in oversight.

Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell, Part V

So what exactly does a robust international force mean? Does it mean a force that will shoot back at Hizbullah? Will it hunt down Hizbullah bases of operation and eliminate them? Callimachus posting at Michael Totten notes the Tom Friedman op-ed that calls for precisely that - a robust international force to disarm and pacify the Lebanese frontier.

Lebanon, alas, has not been able to produce the internal coherence to control Hezbollah, and is not likely to soon. The only way this war is going to come to some stable conclusion anytime soon is if The World of Order — and I don't just mean "the West," but countries like Russia, China, India, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia too — puts together an international force that can escort the Lebanese army to the Israeli border and remain on hand to protect it against Hezbollah.

I am not talking about a U.N. peacekeeping force. I am talking about an international force, like the one that liberated Kosovo, with robust rules of engagement, heavy weapons and troops from countries like France, Russia, India and China that Iran and its proxies will not want to fight.

Israel does not like international forces on its borders and worries they will not be effective. But it will be better than a war of attrition, and nothing would set back the forces of disorder in Lebanon more than The World of Order helping to extend the power of the democratically elected Lebanese government to its border with Israel.

Where I disagree with Friedman is that the international force will not only be ineffective, but one has to wonder who will stock this force. Who has the capabilities and the willpower to see a peacemaking force operate? There aren't that many countries out there.

Having the world by the balls. Inartful, but highly accurate and concise. It's how the terrorists take advantage of the fact that they can live and operate among civilians, preparing and waging war against others, and know that when justice comes for them, it will mean civilian casualties. Via Callimachus.

Of course all this diplomatic action would be rendered moot if Hizbullah simply released the two Israelis they're holding. That's still not going to happen according to Hizbullah, so the military action they're craving is going to come sooner or later.

Israel is going ahead with procuring more ordnance from the United States, including precision guided bombs under a contract signed last year. Israel is moving cautiously, and Austin Bay wonders whether Israel understands that all the technological wizardry still needs to be complimented by recon, which is what Israel is currently engaging in. That stands in contrast to the World Net Daily piece I wrote about yesterday that suggested the Israelis were surprised at the ineffectiveness of their air campaign. The truth, I believe is somewhere in the middle.

The WND story suggests that the Israelis had good intel, especially with regard to the Hizbullah bunker in Beirut. They pounded that site with 23 tons of weapons, but the bunker was too securely built for the Israelis to eliminate from the air.

That has serious ramifications for any campaign against Iran, where the Iranians have been preparing their weapons facilities, especially their nuclear research facilities, in hardened underground sites - knowing that Israel has had success in the past against Iraq's nuclear facilities at Osirak in 1981.

The primary bloggers to check with are Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, and Hot Air. Check back with them regularly for updates.

UPDATE:
Israel is apparently entering Lebanon in a big way, and has taken out tv transmission towers - why give the terrorists another outlet for their pablum? The Israelis are quick to say that this isn't an invasion.

I'm concerned that they're too concerned about how all this looks to the international audience that they're telegraphing their moves and giving Hizbullah more than ample time to shift resources and prepare for the invasion. Then again, one could make the argument that anyone caught out in the open shifting Hizbullah resources will be targeted, which is part of the strategy to degrade Hizbullah's capabilities to attack and kill Israelis.

While rocket attacks into Israel have slackened, they haven't stopped.

Evacuations to Cyprus continue, as does the humanitarian efforts to assist Lebanese trying to flee the country. Much less discussed is the fact that much of Northern Israel is shut down, hurting the Israeli economy and causing a refugee crisis of its own within Israel.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Rains, Summer, cavaliers, wrath, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, lebanon, syria.

Powerless UN Calls For Cease Fire

According to CNN.com U.N. chief Kofi Annan called on Thursday for an immediate end to the fighting between Israeli and Hezbollah forces. The secretary-general blamed Hezbollah for triggering the crisis and accused it of holding Lebanon hostage with its campaign against Israel. "While Hezbollah's actions are deplorable and, as I've said, Israel has a right to defend itself, the excessive use of force is to be condemned," Annan told the U.N. Security Council.

My first reaction to this is, when did Annan ever say that Israel has a right to defend itself? In an admittedly quick Google search I have found these statements attributable Annan, “I condemn without reservations the attack in southern Lebanon, and demand that Israeli troops be released immediately”; “I call again for an immediate halt to the disproportionate use of force by Israel, which has already killed and wounded many civilians; for the release of Israeli Army Corporal Gilad Shalit; and for the cessation of rocket fire into Israel,” and many similar statements. In fact, I could not find one statement where Annan has stated Israel's right to defend itself. And while Annan has called for the release of the kidnapped soldiers, I cannot find any statements condemning Hezbollah's actions.

In fact, many think that the U.N. hasn't passed a pro-Israeli resolution in more than 50 years. In my opinion, the U.N. has almost as much culpability for the present crises as does Hamas and Hezbollah. The U.N. has artificially increased the "right of return issue" with its redefinition of the term "refugee" in U.N. Resolution 194. If the definition of "Palestinian Refugee" was not expanded by U.N. Resolution 194, the Palestinian Refugees would number in the hundreds of thousands, not the millions currently being claimed. Interesting, of all the refugees in the world, the Palestinians are the only ones with its own U.N. agency, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).

If Kofi Annan wants to support Israel's right to self defense than he should step aside and allow Israel to do what it deems necessary, without claiming that it is a “disproportionate response.” After all, who is to decide what a “proportionate response” would be?

Ethiopia Rides Into Somalia, Jihad Declared

Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, speaking on Radio Shabelle, said Ethiopia's decision to send troops to protect the transitional government in Baidoa, 150 miles northwest of Mogadishu, must be met with war.

"I am calling on the Somali people to wage a holy war against Ethiopians in Baidoa," said Aweys, accused by the United States of having ties to al-Qaida. "They came to protect a government which they set up to advance their interests."

Residents of Baidoa reported seeing hundreds of Ethiopian troops, in uniform and in marked armored vehicles, entering Baidoa on Thursday and taking up positions around transitional President Abdullahi Yusuf's compound. Ethiopian and Somali government officials have denied Ethiopian troops are in the country, though witnesses from five towns reported seeing them.

"Abdullahi Yusuf is in the pocket of Ethiopia," Aweys said in the nationwide broadcast. "He's been a servant of Ethiopia for a long time."

Islamic militants had rallied people to condemn the presence of Ethiopians after Friday prayers.

Demonstrators in Mogadishu shouted anti-Ethiopian and anti-U.S. slogans as they marched in the capital, accompanied by dozens of Islamic militiamen and trucks mounted with heavy weapons.

"We are against Ethiopian troops invading our country," read some of the banners carried by demonstrators, most of them men.

"God is Great!" shouted the protesters.

Radical Islamic militia, however, later gunned down two people during a rare demonstration against the rulers of Mogadishu.

Demonstrations are rare when the government's thugs kill anyone who dares do so. Heck, the jihadis had no problem killing people watching the World Cup. Where's the UN calling for a cessation of the violence and imposition of a ceasefire? Where are the blue helmets to stop the killings in Mogadishu? *cricket*

UPDATE:
The mullahs in charge of Mogadishu and much of Somalia are calling for jihad. That isn't anything new, but they're now doing it against Ethiopia, which is trying to stabilize the situation there because Somalia's woes will quickly spread if not contained.

Austin Bay has more on the situation in Somalia. Ethiopia is coming in to assist the Transitional Federal Government, but the Islamists in Mogadishu are already portraying this as an invasion. It isn't good at all, and the international community dithers as calls for jihad are being made by the mullahs in charge. Michelle Malkin and Blue Crab Boulevard have more.

UPDATE:
Fears of an 'all out war' on the Horn of Africa appear to be growing states this roundup in the Christian Science Monitor, despite the fact that there are differing accounts of the situation. What do they think has been going on there for years? The fighting between rival gangs has been virtually nonstop since the early 1990s, and now the Islamists are in charge. Somalia's gang warfare has been playing out beneath the radar because of situations elsewhere, but it's no less dire now that Ethiopia is stepping in than when it was fighting between rival groups throughout the country.

The CSM's roundup, including a link from SomaliNet about demonstrations in Mogadishu, but avoids discussing the matter of attacks on the anti-Islamists.

Power Failures

No, I'm not referring to the situation in the Middle East, but rather the ongoing problems facing the New York Metro area (and indeed much of the country) over the continuing inability to maintain, let alone upgrade, the power distribution and generation systems around the country.

Queens has suffered from brownouts, fires in feeder cables and transformers due to the heat and demand from customers. There are some areas that have gone almost a week without power since feeder cables and transformers went up in smoke during the spike in temperatures earlier this week. Many businesses are suffering economic losses as a result of the problems, and yet many residents feel forgotten. Some think that if this situation happened in Manhattan, Con Ed and every politician would demand a fix within hours - and get one.

Tempers are rising at the same time, local politicians are having a field day of soundbites, especially when TV crews catch some Con Ed workers catching up on their sleep when they should be working to fix the problems.

Conservation can only do so much. People need the power, and the inability to provide it safely has led to these recurrent problems in parts of the area. The power distribution companies must do better in upgrading their systems to handle the loads, or else we're facing a situation whereby we'll continue to see scattered blackouts due to transmission and distribution failures.

Meanwhile, isn't it curious that we don't hear much about wanting to shut down Indian Point nuclear power plant right now? Guess someone realized that the area doesn't have sufficient power generation capabilities, and a shutdown would mean much of the area going dark.

The Battle For Ground Zero, Part 155

The Port Authority is trying to catalogue parts of the WTC facade so that it could potentially be reassembled as part of the 9/11 memorial/museum. They don't know if they have all of the iconic remnants of the towers that remained standing when the towers collapsed on the morning of September 11th.

Apparently the Chinese company that was expected to rent the top five floors of 7WTC aren't ready to call it quits. They want another shot to sit down with Silverstein and hammer out a deal.

The NYT has a story about the Tomassetti clan, whose construction firms are found all over the Ground Zero site.

The pieces of Dino Tomassetti Sr.’s construction empire are all over ground zero.

A glance into the pit at the World Trade Center site reveals his company’s Laquila cranes, heavy equipment, pickup trucks and crews. His oldest son’s blue and white Empire Transit Mix trucks will deliver concrete for the foundation of the Freedom Tower, the most symbolic of the five planned skyscrapers. His daughter’s company will deliver the steel rods, or rebar, that strengthen the concrete walls.

But Mr. Tomassetti, the 79-year-old patriarch of this empire, is barred from setting foot on the 16-acre site.

He is under indictment, accused of making thousands of dollars in illegal payoffs to union officials over a 10-year period. He denies the charges.

Federal prosecutors and testimony have linked him to organized crime figures. His companies have been banned from obtaining city contracts and stripped of a special permit to operate a solid waste transfer station. One Laquila company was fined for its part in a scheme organized by a member of the Gambino crime organization to dump construction debris illegally in New Jersey.

But none of this means his family will be on the sidelines when it comes to building what will be the city’s tallest tower. The central contract for excavation and foundation work, which is worth tens of millions of dollars, was awarded to his youngest son, Dino Tomassetti Jr., 27, who until recently chauffeured his father from job site to job site in a black Lincoln Navigator.

The developer building the Freedom Tower, Larry A. Silverstein, says that the elder Mr. Tomassetti owns one of the best foundation companies in the city, Laquila Construction. Hiring the son and his company, Laquila Group, was a way to take advantage of that expertise while avoiding doing business directly with the father, according to Silverstein executives.

And then there are the safeguards. Mr. Silverstein has hired an experienced integrity monitor, with the authority to audit the books of the Laquila Group and watch its bank account to ensure that the elder Mr. Tomassetti will not make any money from the $2 billion project.

Ah, the costs of doing business in New York City.

Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell, Part IV

Ha'aretz notes that there are now thousands of Israeli troops inside Southern Lebanon and thousands more Israelis are expected to be called up. The IAF continues to strike at rocket launch sites and infrastructure in Lebanon. This comes even as the rockets keep falling on Israel. More than 30 were hurt in Haifa when a rocket struck there.

One Israeli soldier was killed in the collision between two Israeli helicopters near Kiyrat Shimona. Three others were injured.

Hizbullah has fired at a UNIFIL position in Lebanon, although al Manar (Hizbullah's mouthpiece, says it was Israel who fired). For those who haven't been keeping track, UNIFIL is a United Nations peacekeeping force stationed along the Lebanese/Israeli border who was charged with ensuring that the border integrity was maintained and that UN SCR 1559 was implemented. Great job!

The NYT has an interesting article about how factionalized Hamas was, and how the current conflict in Gaza has galvanized the various Hamas factions.

It is difficult to say how many Palestinians are members of armed groups. Israeli intelligence officials say there are probably as many as 20,000 hard-core members of the various factions, most of which are in the Gaza Strip. But if you include freelancers who join in when the fighting picks up, intelligence officials say, the militias outnumber the 35,000 members of the Palestinian Authority security forces.

Israeli intelligence officials say the leadership of Hamas, previously split between Gaza and Syria, shifted to Damascus after the assassinations of Hamas’s charismatic leaders, Sheik Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi in 2004. Two months ago, General Eiland said, Hamas military leaders appeared to gain the upper hand.

According to the accounts of Israeli intelligence officers and senior Hamas officials, the influence of Hamas leaders in Gaza weakened further after they joined the Palestinian Authority in the wake of parliamentary elections earlier this year.

The Qassam Brigades, which is believed to have received money from Saudi Arabia until recently and now from Iran, grew in the 1990’s as a counterweight to the Aksa Martyrs Brigades of the Fatah movement, then led by Yasir Arafat.

Capt. Jacob Dallal, an Israeli Army spokesman, said that in the past few years Hezbollah had also helped underwrite some Palestinian groups and had provided technological skills.

The diplomats are coming out in force. Sec. State Rice and Kofi are meeting to discuss a French proposal for a ceasefire (my guess is it's the surrender option). EU's Javier Solana is meeting with the families of the three Israeli soldiers who were being held by Hamas and Hizbullah. The French Foreign Minister is doing the whirlwind tour of the region, and Sec. State. Rice is expected next week. Germany and Russia are trying to secure the release of the Israeli soldiers, with Germany reportedly using undercover agents to do so, but it always was more than just those soldiers. It was the invasion of Israel, the killing of other Israelis, and the ongoing terrorism against Israel from Gaza and Lebanon. Israel, meanwhile, has approved a humanitarian corridor between Lebanon and Cyprus, so that people fleeing the violence have a area of safe transit.

Not that any of this matters because Hizbullah refuses to agree to any ceasefire.

The Saudis think that an international force would be the best solution at this point. Never mind eliminating the terrorists, but stop the violence. Sure, so low-level violence can continue ad infinitum until the next major flare up. Hizbullah gets to rearm and reequip, Israel has to prepare for the next barrage of incoming rockets, and the diplomats feel good about themselves. Right.

The primary bloggers to check with are Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, and Hot Air. Check back with them regularly for updates.

UPDATE:
Fact checking Hizbullah? You bet your ass. We, and our readers, will fact check anyone.

Ed Morrissey takes a more detailed look at the NYT story about Hamas and the factions, and notes that the different factions - particularly between the military wing and the 'political wing' suggests that there is no reason to believe that a settlement could be reached unless sufficient pressure is put on Meshaal and his backers in Syria. Haniyeh isn't the key individual here.

Over on the northern border, Israel is continuing to learn about the network of underground bunkers and tunnels Hizbullah has dug into South Lebanon. Hizbullah has been preparing for this conflict for six years. To eliminate the tunnels and bunkers, Israeli special forces have to go in and identify them, which is an extremely dangerous mission and one such team was involved in a vicious firefight and suffered casualties yesterday.

In the six years since Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon, it has learned that Hezbollah was collecting a huge number of Katyusha rockets and Iranian-made missiles shipped from Syria.

But the drone planes and electronic intelligence didn't reveal what was going on underground.

To go after those fortified bunkers, Israel has begun sending special teams.

One team paid the price yesterday when it ended up in a firefight with Hezbollah in the Lebanese town of Marun a-Ras. Four Israelis were reported killed.

From the air, Israel has hit some 1,500 targets, mainly artillery arsenals and launchers.

"We are operating around-the-clock to interrupt the launching of rockets," said Air Force Brig. Gen. Benny Gantz.

He noted that only 60 Katyushas were launched at Israel yesterday, compared with 140 on Wednesday and 136 on Tuesday.

But to know where to shoot, his gunners need good information.

Former armed forces Chief of Staff Dan Shomron, who commanded the celebrated 1976 raid on Entebbe, said yesterday, "Without using ground operations to pinpoint targets and Hezbollah commanders, we will not be able to accomplish our mission in Lebanon."

Jay Tea gives a well-deserved remedial English lesson directed at the media outlets who are covering the conflict.

Fouad Ajami has a good read on the situation. He sees the Syrians and Iranians behind the 2-front war on Israel, and how the Lebanese are caught in the vise-grip, trying to spring their country from the hands of Hizbullah and Syria.

No less a figure than the hereditary leader of the Druze community, Walid Jumblatt, was quick to break with Hezbollah, and to read this crisis as it really is. "We had been trying for months," he said, "to spring our country out of the Syrian-Iranian trap, and here we are forcibly pushed into that trap again." In this two-front war—Hamas's in the Palestinian territories and Hezbollah's in Lebanon—Mr. Jumblatt saw the fine hand of the Syrian regime attempting to retrieve its dominion in Lebanon, and to forestall the international investigations of its reign of terror in that country.

Nasrallah was in the end just the Lebanese face of Hezbollah. Those who know the workings of the movement with intimacy believe that operational control is in the hands of Iranian agents, that Hezbollah is fully subservient to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

That raid into Israel, the capture of the two Israeli soldiers, was a deliberate attack against the new Lebanon. That the crisis would play out when the mighty of the G-8 were assembled in Russia was a good indication of Iran's role in this turn of events.

The Shiites are Lebanon's single largest community. There lie before them two ways: Lebanonism, an attachment to their own land, assimilation into the wider currents of their country, an acceptance of it as a place of services and trade and pluralism; or a path of belligerence, a journey on road to Damascus—and to the Iranian theocracy. By the time the guns fall silent and the Lebanese begin to dig out of the rubble, we should get an intimation of which Shiite future beckons. The Shiites can make Lebanon or they can break it. Their deliverance lies in a recognition of the truths and limitations of their country. The "holy war" they can leave to others.

AJ Strata has had enough of the diplomats and their calls for Israel to show restraint, especially Kofi Annan.

UPDATE:
President Bush sees the current crisis in the Middle East as an opportunity to change the situation on the ground.

As the president's position is described by White House officials, Bush associates and outside Middle East experts, Bush believes that the status quo -- the presence in a sovereign country of a militant group with missiles capable of hitting a U.S. ally -- is unacceptable.

The U.S. position also reflects Bush's deepening belief that Israel is central to the broader campaign against terrorists and represents a shift away from a more traditional view that the United States plays an "honest broker's" role in the Middle East.

In the administration's view, the new conflict is not just a crisis to be managed. It is also an opportunity to seriously degrade a big threat in the region, just as Bush believes he is doing in Iraq. Israel's crippling of Hezbollah, officials also hope, would complete the work of building a functioning democracy in Lebanon and send a strong message to the Syrian and Iranian backers of Hezbollah.

Too many people, especially on the Left think that a reversion to the pre 2003 status quo would be better.

That's a revisionist misreading of history. The region was rife with terrorist attacks, Israel was hit repeatedly by the Islamic terrorists, as were US interests and assets (Khobar Towers, USS Cole, embassies, personnel, etc.). Iraq, Iran, and other countries were busy developing WMD, including nuclear capabilities. That situation was unacceptable, and the UN specifically pointed out Iraq's refusal to eliminate its WMD programs. More than a dozen times, in fact.

The regimes, all totalitarian dictatorships with a thin veneer of 'democratic elections,' all were funding terrorist groups and proxy military forces for use at the times and places of their choosing. Hizbullah had six years to build up in South Lebanon since Israel withdrew from the area in 2000. Hamas had nine months to do the same in Gaza. The regions players, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are all vying to dominate the region and old ethnic and religious hatreds are shaping the conflict as well. These predate the current Administration. Indeed, they predate the establishment of the US by more than a thousand years.

Some think that more vigorous diplomacy is the solution. Again, diplomacy only works if the parties to a conflict share some common ground. Here, there is no common ground between Hizbullah (or Hamas) and Israel. Besides, how and why should anyone negotiate with terrorist groups dedicated to Israel's annihilation? No one, can come up with a satisfactory reason why negotiations are the proper route. Doing them for the sake of process or for photo opportunities is insufficent. Ending the current hot crisis doesn't eliminate the problem. It just turns a boil down to a simmer, which will boil over the moment Hizbullah or Hamas begin attacking Israel again (which will be almost as soon as the ink dries on the paper).

UPDATE:
The Jerusalem Post reports (no link yet) that an Islamic terrorist was caught in Tel Aviv before they were able to strike. Meanwhile, the rockets keep falling in Haifa with more injuries.

The Israeli buildup of forces in Israel preparing for a mission inside Lebanon is garnering a lot of coverage.

Confederate Yankee has an eloquent posting about how Israel has had enough with the status quo of terrorists raining down missiles, seeking to drive Israel into the sea, and otherwise killing Israelis at random.

Big Pharoah, whose dad was an Egyptian general, thinks that we're on the verge of a very gruesome war (his words) if Israel decides to send in ground forces to deal with Hizbullah. A ground war will be painful, but a ceasefire with the status quo completely unacceptable - Hizbullah retains the capabilities to kill Israelis on a whim, and Israel is constrained by the international community from taking the decisive actions needed.

Tigerhawk examines the change of heart among Sunni Muslims in dealing with Iran since 2003. QandO suggests a notion of progressive realism to deal with the circumstances presented thus far in the Middle East.

The first theme will give the Left heartburn the second, the Right. Neither should, though. In both cases, the key is moderation. Democratization should not be the sole driving force of US foreign policy, nor should international institutions be the sole source of authority. But both, in moderation, make positive contributions.

The "Progressive" part of the phrase "Progressive Realism" may worry the Right, but if you look past the name, you'll find that Progressive Realism resembles nothing so much as the ultimately very effective Nixon Doctrine. Robert Wright even uses similar language — cost-sharing/free riders, reciprocal concessions, economic interconnectivity as a tool of progress, and a closer alignment of our interests with our ideals.

It calls for a reallignment of foreign policy objectives, and would bridge some of the differences between the Left and Right, but I think it still fails in one crucial area - there are no international organizations or systems that can do what needs to be done under this theory. The UN is hopelessly corrupt and incapable of taking action when needed because countries will put their own economic interests first - see China and Russia thwarting action in Darfur for a prime example.

Others blogging: Blue Crab Boulevard, Daily Pundit, and Outside the Beltway.

UPDATE:
Turns out there were multiple terrorists caught before they were able to carry out suicide bombings. A total of three were arrested. Two were caught in one operation, and a female suicide bomber appears to have been involved. So, does that count towards a proportional response by Israel?

More than 100 Hizbullah terrorist minions have had their tickets punched.

UPDATE:
How come no one is noting that there are quite a few refugees inside Israel as a result of the rocket fire? Many of the Israeli towns along the border are shuttered, except for a hardy few to tend to crops or herds of animals.

Many have headed South to be out of range of the rockets coming across the border.

The UN counts hundreds of thousands of Lebanese as refugees. Where is the UN count on the Israeli side of the border? After all, this latest round of fighting started with terrorists firing rockets into Israel.

Despite Israel continuing to take out Hizbullah rocket cells in Lebanon, Hizbullah continues to fire rockets into Israel, including some that hit in Haifa.

A meeting of diplomats in Rome is scheduled for July 26 to deal with the situation in Lebanon. US Ambassador John Bolton correctly notes that a ceasefire would only give Hizbullah the opportunity to rearm and reequip. That surely isn't stopping some diplomats from accomplishing just that with a return to status quo ante.

UPDATE:
This article gives a pessimistic take on Israel's air campaign to eradicate the Hizbullah terrorists from South Lebanon. Ground forces are massing to deal with the threat, because airpower alone will not solve the problem. Among the tidbits of note:

The air force learned that lesson in Beirut as fighter-jets sought to destroy Hizbullah headquarters, Middle East Newsline reported. Officials acknowledged that 23 tons of munitions failed to penetrate the thick walls of the underground command headquarters constructed by Iran.

Indeed, the air force did not even deem the purchase of deep penetration munitions a priority. Earlier this year, Israel decided against purchasing U.S.-origin bunker-buster weapons regarded as a requirement for any air strike against Iran or Syria.

So, does this mean that the Israelis hit the Hizbullah bunker, but that the terrorists were able to survive because their Iranian designed bunker survived? This has serious ramifications for those who are tasked with planning raids on Iran and Syria in case the need arises.

Ben Stein questions what is 'disproportionate.' So does It Shines For All. Mere Rhetoric takes on Juan Cole and catches Cole lying. Go figure.

Others blogging the conflict: Jeff Goldstein, Vital Perspective, Atlas Shrugs, and Euphoric Reality.

UPDATE:
The terror alert level in Tel Aviv has been lowered since a cell was apprehended earlier today.

Anyone else noticing lots of talk about World War III in relation to Israel's campaign against the terrorists infesting Lebanon? Meanwhile, Neo-neocon has a very good posting on Israel's newfound resolve. A sampling:

There's that metaphor again: being held hostage. And the linked Jerusalem Post article goes on to point out that Israel and its leaders (usually so fractious) are presently united behind Olmert.

Why is this? It seems to me that it's because so much else has been tried, for so very long, and been found so very wanting. If the slogan of the peace movement is "Give peace a chance," Israel can honestly say (although its enemies will never credit this, of course) "Been there, done that, many times. And it didn't work."

Another reason Olmert can stand firm is that the Bush administration is refusing to pay any more lip service to the 'peace process" as a way of dealing with terrorist entities such as Hezbollah.

Belgravia Dispatches has concerns over the diplomatic maneuverings and thinks there needs to be more engagement and less transformational diplospeak.

Others covering the conflict, the difficulties that can be expected during a ground campaign against a terrorist group firmly entrenched with six years of prep time to arrange weapons caches and bunkers: Liberty and Justice, Dan Riehl, Donald Sensing (also at Winds of Change), The Politburo Diktat, Decision 08, Cox and Forkum have another great cartoon, and Elder of Ziyon.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Rains, Summer, cavaliers, wrath, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, lebanon, syria.

Well Here It Is, My First Post

After years of commenting on various blogs, and being one of the more frequent commentator on this blog, I have finally decided to try blogging from the other side.

Let me start by introducing myself. My name is Legalbgl. Lawhawk and I have been friends for 20 years now. Lawhawk actually introduced me to Mrs. Legalbgl (Mrs. Lawhawk's best friend from High School.) I am an attorney in New York City, who practices primarily in commercial litigation.

Lawhawk and I share many the same interests and view points. We are both avid Quentin Terrentino fans, and can quote almost the entire script of both Pulp Fiction and Reservoir Dogs. We are both huge sports fans, and play fantasy sports together. Lawhawk and I are both amateur photographers.

More importantly, we both tend to agree on political issues. That is not to say that we are carbon copies of each other. We do not always agree on every point, but usually, we agree on the big picture and on the overall process.

I want to thank Lawhawk for inviting me to contribute to A Blog For All. I know Lawhawk takes the content of this blog very seriously. I hope that I can contribute at the same high level that Lawhawk has set since creating this Blog. As you read my posts you will see that Lawhawk and I have different styles. I think that our styles compliment each other well.

I hope you continue to enjoy A Blog For All and enjoy my posts. I look forward to reading your comments and encourage them, especially if you disagree with Lawhawk's or my comments. Free and open debate, a free flow of exchange of ideas, is the most important fundamental right we have. Lets all exercise that right.

If I'm Not Me, Then Who Am I?

Do not adjust the vertical.
Do not adjust the horizontal.

I control this blog space, but don't be alarmed if you start seeing someone else posting on A Blog For All that isn't me. It looks like this formerly solo effort is going to be gaining a partner.

More details to follow.

Deaf, Dumb, Blind and Potentially Quite Dead

So, 25% of my fellow Americans wouldn't heed evacuation warnings should a hurricane be bearing down on them:

The most common reasons respondents gave for not evacuating were confidence that their home is well-built, belief that roads would be too crowded and concern that evacuating would be dangerous.

"Public officials have to realize a substantial group of people are going to remain and be very dependent on rescue efforts after a storm hits," said Robert Blendon, the Harvard health policy professor who directed the survey.

The telephone survey, of 2,029 people, was conducted from July 5 to July 11.

All participants were 18 and older and lived in counties within 50 miles of the coastline in the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Nearly 50 percent said they had evacuated because of a hurricane before. "These are people with a lot of experience with storms," Blendon said.

When asked if they would evacuate if government officials said a major hurricane was going to hit in the next few days, 67 percent said they would, 24 percent said they would not and the rest said they didn't know or it would depend on the circumstances.

If it turned out they later needed rescuing, 75 percent of those who would or might stay voiced confidence they would be saved.

The rescue findings were surprising, especially in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, Blendon said.

Katrina hit the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, devastating southern Mississippi and flooding much of New Orleans. The storm killed more than 1,500 people in one of the largest natural disasters in modern American history.

It's noteworthy that 25 percent of the respondents who would not evacuate would not count on a rescue, said Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of Columbia University's National Center for Disaster Preparedness.

"There are many people who have an extremely low level of confidence in the government," Redlener said.

There is good reason to have low levels of confidence in government coming to the rescue in a natural disaster, but that's no excuse for staying in the face of a natural disaster that can be avoided by moving inland to higher ground.

It appears that the lessons of Katrina have not been learned despite the loss of life and tremendous economic damages throughout the Gulf Coast from multiple hurricane strikes in just the past few years.

Choosing not to evacuate could end up being a fatal mistake for thousands, which will then require search and rescue teams risking their lives to try and save folks who should never have stayed in harms' way.

Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell, Part III

The million dollar question this morning seems to be just what was hit yesterday by Israelis when they attacked a site in Beirut. The Israelis claim it was a Hizbullah bunker where the Islamic terrorists' top leaders were hunkering down. They dropped 23 tons of ordnance on the site, so they obviously believe that there was something quite important there.

Hizbullah denies by fax that any of its leaders were killed and says that the site destroyed by the Israelis was a mosque under construction. Well, that doesn't have to be a mutually exclusive position. It could be a bunker and a mosque, which is not unheard of in the Middle East.

The real test will be whether we start seeing videos of Nasrallah or other top leaders, or whether we get nothing but static from Hizbullah until they sort out who's going to run their terrorist organization now that their leaders are dead and buried under tons of rubble. Blue Crab Boulevard has more.

The Lebanese Prime Minister now says that the world has to help disarm Hizbullah and calls for a ceasefire. Well, the world doesn't have a military force ready or capable of doing the job. Israel is already on the case, and is doing an extremely effective job. The world can help clean up after the mess left by Hizbullah's pervasive and invasive use of Lebanon as its terrorist homeland. The ceasefire will come after Hizbullah is eliminated as a threat, not before.

Egypt, too, wants a ceasefire, but their priorities are to act as kingmakers in the region and exert a countervailing influence against the Iranians and Syrians. And they have to see what the Saudis are doing and counter that as well.

Former Spook takes Lou Dobbs to task for his inane comments about the US foreign policy towards the Middle East and poor knowledge of history.

US Marines have come ashore in order to assist Americans flee the country. This comes at a time when the Israelis are hinting that they might begin a full scale invasion into Southern Lebanon. If the bunker they hit was indeed the command center for Hizbullah, this makes sense as they engaged in a decapitation strike and the remaining Hizbullah around Lebanon have no one to issue them orders. The biggest problem is that without any leaders, there's no one in the organization to say to surrender or retreat.

Britain worries that the offensive against Hizbullah might backfire. Well, considering that the UK has a large militant Islamic population that has no intention of ever assimiliating into British culture, the British government is clearly worried that Hizbullah sympathizers might start a terror campaign on their shores. Yet, if it was not the situation right now with Israel, these same Islamists can and do find other reasons to agitate against the British people - namely that the Brits are not yet Muslims themselves.

And in the biggest joke of the day, the Russians are busy complaining about the scale of the Israeli operation in Lebanon. As if the Russians ever bothered worrying about the scale of their war against Afghanistan or Chechnya? In both, they had no problem levelling entire cities to rubble and then some. Israel selectively targets structures and Russia complains. There's a word for that - chutzpah!

The primary bloggers to check with are Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, and Hot Air. Check back with them regularly for updates.

UPDATE:
Debka (yes, the usual rules apply on source's accuracy) claims that Jordan has informed Israeli security that Hamas is trying to infiltrate Israel from Jordan to carry out terrorist attacks.

Jordanian military intelligence relayed information that Hamas had recruited a bomb team in the kingdom. It was on its way to cross into Israel for the strike. Israeli and Jordanian border troops are on a high state of preparedness. The potential targets are the southern port of Eilat, its Arava main road link to the north, the Dead Sea, or the Beit Shean Valley on the Jordan River.

This could help explain why the Israelis closed off Gaza and West Bank through the end of the week.

All Things Beautiful has a good analysis of the media coverage by CNN and compares it with Arab Times editorial who looks like he gets it.

Roger L. Simon notes that Syria is walking a very fine line between giving too much support to Hizbullah and not doing anything and exposing just how weak the regime in Damascus truly is. Rotted to the core. He also notes that Debka is suggesting that Israeli forces have already been engaging in operations inside Syria's border, but I'd take that with a grain of salt. Israel probably does have special forces operating in Syria to identify targets but isn't firing on targets just yet.

Arutz Sheva reports that there's still no idea who was in the bunker.

According to intelligence received by the IDF, the bunker, located in the Bourj al-Barajneh area of southern Beirut, housed the terror organization’s most senior leadership. The intelligence was considered sufficiently reliable to justify a massive attack at around 8 PM, and another one at 11 PM. Dozens of planes took part in the attacks, and the building was totally destroyed.

Following the attack, Hizbullah released a statement via its Al-Manar TV broadcasts that the building was no more than a mosque under construction, and that the Hizbullah leadership was untouched.

IDF sources say it is possible that the above is true, given the depth of the bunker under the building. However, even if so, it is felt that keeping the charismatic Hizbullah leader Sheikh Nasrallah trapped or leashed to an underground bunker - either the one that was bombed or another one - is also an achievement.

It's a waiting game to see who emerges to speak on behalf of Hizbullah. The longer we wait, the more likely it is that Israel hit the jackpot.

Michael Freund wonders whether the Washington Post supports Hizbullah and Hamas. Good question given all the editorial space proffered to the terrorists and their supporters in the past several weeks.

Meryl Yourish points out the double standard of the UN never complaining about the war crimes committed by terrorist groups and Zapatero's statements against Israel despite Spain's occupation of Moroccan territory.

UPDATE:
Hamas is apparently trying to work with Egypt in trying to negotiate a deal in the aftermath of the raid on the Hizbullah compound in Beirut. They want to deal because they don't want to die.

Hamas leaders have met with an Egyptian team in Gaza to discuss the release of an Israeli soldier kidnapped June 26 by the Palestinian militant group.

Mediators in the negotiations said no agreements have been reached between the parties and Hamas has signaled an unwillingness to discuss the release of Cpl. Gilad Shalit independent from Hezbollah, Ha'aretz reported Thursday.

The mediators said the Egyptians have been discussing a deal that would exchange Shalit for Palestinian prisoners and would bring an end to Qassam rocket fire from the Palestinians as well as Israeli military operations in Gaza.

Some high-ranking Hamas officials have supported negotiations out of fears that Israel would no longer be willing to negotiate if Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is killed or captured.

Peace through superior firepower at its best. Hamas knows that it could have been them on the receiving end of the bunker busting mission. They're cowards, and this further reinforces the fact that they now fear the retribution imposed by Israel for their ongoing terrorism against Israel.

And despite the fearsome pounding that Hizbullah has taken, someone in Lebanon's government thinks it would be a good idea to stand alongside Hizbullah if Israel invades.

The Israelis claim that Hizbullah has a bunch of similar undergrond bunkers throughout Southern Lebanon, which makes sense. They've had six years to become firmly entrenched and the Lebanese government has been unwilling or unable to deal with the situation - as is required under UN SCR 1559.

UPDATE:
Hizbullah has kidnapped two foreign journalists in Lebanon. Because they're all about peace, love, compassion, and kindness, you see. What justification is there for this? You can't blame Israel for the kidnappings, though I'm sure someone will try [ed: everything can be blamed on Israel if you try hard enough and your logic and moral center are reversed]

Kofi Annan tells the UN Security Council that this violence must stop. Nice. Where were you telling everyone that the violence had to stop in Rwanda or Sudan or any of the other hellholes out there while you had the ability to stop it? You were silent then. Now, you simply look like you're helping terrorists escape their just desserts.

Flopping Aces notes Tony Snow's performance against the WH Press Corps questions about the Administration's diplomatic efforts. The press isn't distinguishing itself for having a solid grasp of facts.

Others blogging: Greyhawk, The Moderate Voice, and The Anchoress. Ranting Profs eviscerates the war as war crime meme currently making the rounds about Israel's acts to defend itself against ongoing terrorist acts. Boker Tov, Boulder does the same to Pat Buchanan's inane comments.

UPDATE:
Ynet is reporting that Nasrallah has spoken - and that Hizbullah is still functioning. That remains to be seen. Hizbullah is sticking to its demands that Israel release its prisoners before Hizbullah releases the Israeli soldiers.

The two journalists captured by Hizbullah appear to have been released.

The Israelis are going to allow a humanitarian corridor. I think it's a bad idea, and lets Hizbullah terrorists a freeway to escape the carnage of their own making. Meanwhile, the IAF is resuming its attacks around Beirut. Hizbullah terrorists were nabbed in Nablus. Rockets are still falling in Israel, but fewer today than the past few days. Does it have something to do with the bunker strike?

UPDATE:
Heavy fighting has broken out between Hizbullah and the IDF near the Lebanese border. The IDF has taken casualties, but isn't giving specifics. Meanwhile, FullosseousFlap comments on Nasrallah's latest utterances, coming more than a day after the massive IAF raid on a bunker in Beirut. David Bernstein is dissappointed that Nasrallah hasn't added to the rolls in hell.

Two Israeli helicopters apparently collided near Kiryat Shimona. Four soldiers were wounded.

Arabs living in Nazareth are showing themselves to be quite capable of being completely able to divorce themselves from reality. Hizbullah fires rockets at them, but it's Israel's fault. And for good measure Nasrallah proclaimed them shahids. So all's well.

Israel has withdrawn from the International Federation of Journalists. More Hizbullah terrorists were interdicted in Nablus.

Outside the Beltway and Security Watchtower notes the Saudi Wahabi fatwa against Hizbullah - nothing quite beats having a bit of intramural conflict (Sunni/Shi'a) to spice up the Islamic-Israeli conflict.

Laurence posting at IMAO notices that the world is treating Hizbullah quite a bit different than another Islamic terrorist group - all because Hizbullah decided to build schools and hospitals. Curious, isn't it.

Others blogging: Partisan Times, Soccer Dad, Jeff Goldstein, and Power and Control.

Secretary of State Rice will be visiting the Middle East next week. I don't believe that she'll accomplish much of anything - Israel is determined to carry the war to Hizbullah and Hizbullah shows that it is completely unwilling to cease its war with Israel. Israel cannot and should not be handcuffed when dealing with this ongoing existential threat.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Rains, Summer, cavaliers, wrath, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, lebanon, syria.

India Banning Bloggers

India is taking after its big neighbor to the distant north - China - in banning blogs. As many of my readers know, I can't stand restraints on free speech, and India is making a huge mistake here.

And it's not just because one of the blogs banned is The Jawa Report, to whom I frequently link and post on. Dr. Shackleford notes in an email:

My website has been banned in India.

India has banned a number of websites by domain, but has only singled out 11 websites by name, including this one. Among American websites, all are connected in some way to The Jawa Report.

Why did India ban this website? And what is the larger meaning of this action? We have a post about it here. Whether you agree with my analysis or not, we, those who have been singled out by the world's largest democracy as targets of censorship, could use the support right now.

My post: http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/183986.php

Indians have already begun to protest this action by their government.
We hope you will do the same.

It really does boggle the mind at how and why India thinks banning blogs that highlight the depravities of Islamists is a good thing. People must know the truth behind the thugs who slaughter thousands without a moment's thought all in the name of Allah.

I stand with the Jawa Report in deploring and castigating India for banning blogs - and the Indian people from seeing these blogs. I too am cognizant of the fact that India is playing a very delicate balancing act with its sizeable Islamic population, not to mention Pakistan next door. However, if they think that banning blogs will somehow prevent the next Islamic terrorist blowing up a train, they'll be sadly mistaken.

The Islamists need no provocation other than the very existence of non-Muslims to engage in jihad. And for telling it like it is - and making fun of the very people who are busy blowing stuff up around the world in the name of Islam, The Jawa Report was banned in India.

What India's action say is that they'll ban bloggers who tell the unvarnished truth about the world around them. Not a good move for the world's largest democracy.

UPDATE:
Others standing by The Jawa Report and calling on India to reverse its position include: Michelle Malkin, Ed Morrissey (who has background on the banning by the Indian government), Ace of Spades, Junkyard Blog, In the Bullpen, and Blogs of War.

Paul at Wizbang is annoyed that they didn't make the cut. Try harder guys. As will I.

A First for Everything

Of all the things to consider as a first veto, a veto of expanding embryonic stem-cell research is President Bush's first choice. Hey, it's his choice, but I don't have to agree with it. I don't think this was the right time or place for a first veto, not when there was McCain Feingold that should have been axed for being an abomination against free speech, or any of the many spending plans or new programs proffered by Congress that were fiscally irresponsible.

I really don't have a dog in the fight on embryonic stem cell research. I've heard the supporters say that if only the feds gave us more money, we'd be able to get stuff done, while detractors have said that the money is going down the toilet and that researchers are focusing on adult stem cells because they've already had success in that area.

In medical research, success can come from pretty much anywhere - including serendipity and good fortune (see the discovery of penicillin for instance). So, as a general principle, I would have someone look into whether this might lead to successful treatments. It might never produce results, but we might gain technological prowess and techniques that can help down the road.

However, I note that there are those, including the President, who have sought to limit the funding for embryonic stem cells on a moral or ethical basis because it involves the destruction of a human life (as they've defined it from conception). They might have a point, although embryos that are not used in in-vitro fertilization are routinely destroyed. Such embryos that are discarded from IVF facilities could be used in stem cell research and provide opportunities to scientists that have to date been unsuccessful in their efforts. This situation (using IVF discarded embryros) doesn't necessarily render the moral and ethical objection to using embryonic stem cells for research moot, but it certainly appears to undermine it.

Indonesian Tsunami Death Toll Climbs

This story got lost in all the coverage about the violence in the Middle East, but Indonesia was hit by a very strong 7.7 earthquake followed by a 6-foot high tsunami. More than 550 people were killed, and many more are still missing. It appears that the tsunami warning system installed by the Indonesian government failed to operate properly.

Further aftershocks have rocked the region.

The Tsunami Blog has more details.

UPDATE:
Mrs. Lawhawk notes that the area affected did not have the warning system installed as yet. It doesn't appear to matter, because Indonesian officials didn't bother letting the Indonesians know that they should head inland and they didn't pass along the warning from the scientists.

INDONESIA received alerts from two regional agencies that Monday's undersea earthquake could trigger a tsunami, but officials made no attempt to alert threatened communities, a government minister admitted yesterday.

Kusmayanto Kadiman, the science and technology minister, said bulletins came from the US Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre and Japan's meteorological agency, but "we did not announce them".

The warnings were sent about 45 minutes before the tsunami struck.

Even if the government had attempted to phone, radio or e-mail local authorities, it is unclear how the word would have been spread to residents or tourists on the beach, with no alarm systems in place.

There are conflicting stories over whether the Indonesians have any warning bouys in place -some say that there's a single bouy, others say that there are no working bouys because they were somehow damaged. The Indonesian government doens't know what the situation is, and alternatively claims poverty or that the money provided in the aftermath of the December 2004 tsunami wasn't earmarked for the warning system.

Those are empty excuses.

Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell, Part II

Israeli forces have engaged in heavy combat with Hizbullah, seeking to eliminate Hizbullah strongholds from along the border. The IDF is also after the bagmen and their money storage areas that are keeping Hizbullah in business.

Hizbullah continues to fire rockets into Northern Israel. There have been additional injuries in Israel as well. And the Lebanese government does itself no favors by announcing that it's holding 15 people it claims were collaborating with Israel in Beirut. They claim that they were providing Israel with targeting data. Well, that beats firing indiscriminately and pulverizing the entire area to kill a few terrorists.

And doesn't this beat all, some are now realizing that leaking the timing of Sec. State Rice's visit to the region as it was being planned was a real bad idea. No kidding. Nothing quite like giving aid and comfort to terrorists by letting them know that they're going to be saved by the diplomats, who are more interested in process and paper than facts on the ground and an unending desire among the terrorists to wage a genocidal conflict against Israel.

Israel says that it doesn't want to involve Syria in the fighting. Well, that's all well and good but Syria is involved in the fighting, as is Iran - providing direct and indirect aid to Hizbullah and Hamas. Trying to divert attention from this fact does not make it go away. It is understandable that Israeli leadership doesn't want to expand this conflict any further than it has to, but this goes back to a point I've been making since the latest round of fighting began - Hizbullah and Hamas are symptoms of the problem. The root cause of the problem is Syrian and Iranian intentions for the region.

And the basic calculus for ending this conflict hasn't changed either. It will still require someone from Hizbullah agreeing to terms, that Hizbullah isn't exactly going to want to do for reasons I've laid out in the past, and that Israel does not want to concede because it's national security is at stake:

The question is not only what will stop Israel's onslaught but also what will the conditions be that will allow Hassan Nasrallah to nod approvingly. Mediators heard about what may work in a meeting with Nabih Berri, a "contact person" to Hezbollah, the speaker of Lebanon's parliament and head of Amal, another Shi'ite group. According to Berri, even if the United Nations decides to deploy a "significant" force to south Lebanon, it will need Nasrallah's approval, otherwise such a force will be involved in incessant fighting and Israel will continue to suffer missile attacks.

If Hezbollah will be asked to lay down its arms, Nasrallah will have to approve this since there is not a single political power in Lebanon on Tuesday that is capable of carrying out the group's disarmament. In fact, the idea of a disarmed Hezbollah is so far-fetched to senior Israel Defense Forces officers and Israeli politicians that they are willing to make do with a "significant weakening" of the group.

It turns out that even the mumbling of George Bush, in between bites, that Syria must be told to cut "that shit" out, is not exactly practical. Syria will be willing to negotiate if the boycott and threat on the nation is lifted, and the international investigation into the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri is called off and all plans to bring the accused before an international tribunal are scrapped. Some of these conditions, especially canceling the international tribunal, is the precondition with which Hezbollah confronted Lebanon's Prime Minister Fuad Siniora in return for its cooperation in government and peace along the border with Israel.

Military pressure on Lebanon has not affected Lebanon's willingness to change its terms or see the issue of disarmament as anything but an internal Lebanese matter. Several days prior to the attack on Israel's border and the abduction of the two soldiers, Nasrallah agreed in principle that if his preconditions were met he would keep the border peaceful. As part of these understandings, Nasrallah also agreed in principle to allow the Shaba Farms to be liberated through diplomatic means.

Hizbullah is more than willing to go back on its word and lie to further its goals. That has cost Lebanon dearly, and it is unable to eliminate the threat posed by Hizbullah on its own. An additional international peacekeeping force will not change things either - only add to the targets Hizbullah can and will attack as there's already an international force in Lebanon, which has failed miserably to do anything to stop the carnage wrought by Hizbullah's belligerence.

Meanwhile, more than 1,000 Americans were evacuated from Lebanon on a cruise ship. Is Newsweek surprised that Israel, whose polity is notoriously divided under normal circumstances, has come together in the face of an existential threat? It shouldn't be. Most Israelis recognize an existential threat when they see it up close and personal, and this conflict poses that threat to Israel, particularly when Iran repeatedly makes statements calling for Israel's destruction and urges Hizbullah to continue its campaign of mayhem and death - in Israel and Lebanon.

The primary bloggers to check with are Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, and Hot Air. Check back with them regularly for updates.

Again, some people (read NYT to see whom) do not realize the nature of warfare and proportionality. If your job is to win the war and defeat the enemy who wishes to wipe you out for all eternity, you do not put down your gun to engage your enemy with a knife. You shoot the enemy dead. Hizbullah is fighting with all the tools at its disposal, and is engaging in a guerilla war with Israel, just as it has done for decades. Israel is eliminating the threat posed by Hizbullah by going after all its weapons caches, which Hizbullah purposefully stores in civilian areas to blend in and maximize the carnage if discovered by Israeli forces.

“Terrorists use the population and live among them,” Ms. Livni said. “It’s difficult to target like a surgery. Unfortunately, civilians sometimes pay the price of giving shelter to terrorists.” Under pressure or not, she said, citing Israeli intelligence, many civilians in southern Lebanon have Katyusha and other rockets under their beds.

“When you go to sleep with a missile,” she said, “you might find yourself waking up to another kind of missile.”

Those arguments leave Lebanese and Gazans cold.

Well, I have little sympathy for those Lebanese and Gazans who find such arguments cold because they have permitted terrorists to operate openly within their cities, towns, and villages, stockpiling weapons, and purposefully putting civilians in harms way. If they want to complain about their situation, let it fall on the deaf ears of Hamas and Hizbullah leaders, who see them only as cannon fodder for media manipulation.

The NYT also reports that US and Israeli forces were caught off guard by the sophistication and kinds of missiles being launched into Israel, particularly the range of those weapons. Well, if they're being caught off guard by the ranges of these rockets and missiles, what else do the Iranians have up their sleeves that we're unaware of (WMD, nuclear weapons, cruise missiles, etc.)? How difficult would it be for Israel or the US to be kept blind about such things until it was too late? The answer is that it's far too easy, and given Iran's incessant rhetoric calling for Israel's destruction, one has to consider the possibility that they possess the means to carry out their genocidal designs (honor the threat).

UPDATE:
A day after I noted that there was a story about how Israeli Arabs in Nazareth were worried about the fighting coming their way, their fears were fulfilled by the Hizbullah terrorists. Three people, including two children were killed and several others wounded when a katuysha rocket hit a home in the city.

UPDATE:
Don Surber thinks that the calls for ceasefire are crazy. He's calling for unconditional surrender. He's right of course. Ceasefires do not provide even a veneer of peace. It's just a pregnant pause between intensely violent periods. A ceasefire only benefits Hizbullah and Hamas, not Israel, despite what the diplomats say or think.

Krauthammer seems to think that the situation is a golden opportunity, not a disaster. Ed Morrissey agrees.

AJ Strata wonders if Hizbullah is activating cells in the US to carry out attacks here. So does Michelle Malkin. Good question. We might have a better idea if our eyes and ears weren't being muffled by the NYT and other papers who blabbed about our capabilities and undermined our information gathering ability.

All Things Beautiful tackles the anti-Bush hysteria from Juan Cole and the Left in general. Flopping Aces sees the Left wants Israel's defeat. I concur. There really does seem to be a disconnect between reality and the Left over the events in the Middle East right now. The Left condemns Israel's right to defend itself against terrorist attacks, frets over how Israel responds - attempting a Goldilocks approach that borders on the insane if those on the Left permit Israel the opportunity to defend itself (see also Richard Cohen), don't see a problem with puffing up the terrorists (see Greenwald and Joao Silva) and otherwise pins the blame on all world events on President Bush despite the fact that Iran and Syria (mostly Iran) are trying to precipitate a conflict of epic proportions.

Others blogging the conflict and related issues: Partisan Times, Counterterrorism Blog, Defense Tech, The Real Ugly American, Blue Crab Boulevard.

UPDATE:
Assad is calling on a ceasefire. That should give you some idea of just how badly Hizbullah has been mauled when Assad opens his yapper. Ditto for Ahmadinejad, who made similar demands yesterday.

Nazereth residents complain that they weren't warned before the rockets started falling on the city, killing three and wounded 37 others.

Israel stopped another suicide bomber before he could kill Israelis. However, there's an ongoing threat that a Hizbullah cell was approaching the Israeli border although the Jpost banner says that they've been intercepted.

Stop the ACLU has more background on Hizbullah and its background.

Others blogging: Greg Tinti and James Joyner at Outside the Beltway, Sister Toldjah, and Atlas Shrugs.

UPDATE:
Rich Lowry makes the following observation:

The sense is that the Lebanese government is happy to see Israel pound Hezbollah, but can't say it out loud. How well Israel manages to do that is a matter of timing. Kofi Annan is going to be back to New York from Europe soon and turning up the tempature even higher on the calls for a cease-fire and an international force. The U.S. can resist them, but the clock is definitely ticking and there's a sense that Israel needs to pick up the pace. This is its window, but it's closing. Meanwhile, it sounds as though the timing on Condi's trip is still officially up in the air, although there could be an annoucement soon—with perhaps Sunday as the day. Personally, I think its a huge mistake for her to go there until we definitely want Israel to stop (we went on at length about this in our editorial today ). Otherwise, she's going to come back empty-handed and it will play as another Bush administration diplomatic set-back. And if we really want Israel to stop, we can just tell them—a phone call will suffice.

We might be able to persuade the Israelis to stop going after Hizbullah, but who or what is going to force Hizbullah to stop raining down missiles on Israel? Harsh language?

UPDATE:
The IAF staged a major raid into Beirut, dropping numerous bunker busters in the hope of getting Nasrallah and other Hizbullah leaders. Dozens of planes were involved. It appears that they were unsuccessful, although Israeli intelligence has discovered that Hizbullah was busy with the six years absence of Israeli forces in South Lebanon building launch sites in residential buildings. Once again, Hizbullah is purposefully placing assets in civilian areas to maximize casualties upon discovery by the Israelis.

Israeli troops are also skirmishing with Hizbullah just inside Lebanon. And the Israelis ordered a closure of Gaza and the West Bank through the end of the week based on intel that the Islamic terrorists were planning suicide bombings inside Israel.

The US is asking other Arab countries to pressure Syria and Iran to exert their influence over Hizbullah and Hamas.

Syria tells UN negotiator Roed Larson that he's not welcome in Damascus. Now, isn't that funny considering that Syria was calling for a ceasefire just a few hours ago. Now they're not going to work with the guy who is there on behalf of the UN to make a ceasefire happen? Curious.

Others blogging: From Beirut to the Beltway, Vital Perspective, Assorted Babble, Texas Rainmaker, Jeff Goldstein (and in a lighter moment as well), The Jawa Report (now banned in India!?! [ed: you've got to be kidding - with all the jihadis running around beheading folks and killing people, banning a blogger who shows this ideology for what it is makes no sense whatsoever])

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Rains, Summer, cavaliers, wrath, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, lebanon, syria.