UN Fails Again

The UN is ending its peacekeeping mission along the Eritrea-Ethiopia border, claiming that Eritrea is hampering peacekeeping activities.

Council members and other diplomats said the U.N. had little choice but to withdraw its 1,700-strong force that has been monitoring a 15-mile-wide, 620-mile-long buffer zone between the two nations.

The vote means the entire mission will be terminated on Thursday, Vietnam's U.N. ambassador, Le Luong Minh, told reporters after the vote.

Belgian Ambassador Jan Grauls told the council that the mission, known as UNMEE, "had become impossible to implement" because Eritreans progressively limited peacekeepers' movements -- including restricting night patrols, supply routes and diesel fuel -- and Ethiopians refused to accept an independent boundary commission's 2002 decision to award the key town of Badme to Eritrea.

"The border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea remains total, and the United Nations is withdrawing without having been able to assist the two countries in finding a common ground, in spite of having tried all to achieve it," Grauls said.

Eritrea and Ethiopia have been feuding over their border since Eritrea gained independence in 1993 after a 30-year guerrilla war. The U.N. entered under a 2000 peace agreement that ended the 2½-year border war.

So, instead of taking action against the Eritrean government, they're giving up, and the threat of a conflict between the two countries increases.

US Navy Bombards Somali Terrorists

The US is continuing to provide assistance to the Somali government, and have engaged in fire missions against the terrorists holed up in various parts of the country.

At least one U.S. warship bombarded a remote, mountainous village in Somalia where Islamic militants had set up a base, officials in the northern region of Puntland said Saturday.

The attack from a U.S. destroyer took place late Friday, said Muse Gelle, the regional governor. The extremists had arrived Wednesday by speedboat at the port town of Bargal.

Gelle said the area is a dense thicket, making it difficult for security forces from the semiautonomous republic of Puntland to intervene on its own.

A local radio station quoted Puntland's leader, Ade Muse, as saying that his forces had battled with the extremists for hours before the U.S. ships arrived and used their cannons. Muse said five of his troops were wounded, but that he had no information about casualties among the extremists.

A task force of coalition ships, called CTF-150, is permanently based in the northern Indian Ocean and patrols the Somali coast in hopes of intercepting international terrorists. U.S. destroyers are normally assigned to the task force and patrol in pairs.

Jihad Watch and Don Surber both comment on the attacks.

The US had been providing assistance to the Ethiopian government and the transitional government of Somalia to eliminate the Islamic Courts, which were providing material assistance to al Qaeda.

Somalia, a failed state, is a perfect terrorist incubator. With the lack of a functioning government and no border control, the terrorists are able to recruit new jihadis.

The Islamists have not gone without a fight, and are operating as insurgents, trying to remain viable. They've killed several government officials and are causing mayhem in some parts of the country.

UPDATE:
The US targets apparently include high value targets - al Qaeda:

The destroyer USS Chafee fired her deck guns at two or three suspected "high-value terrorist targets" in the Puntland area along the northern coast of Somalia on Saturday, U.S. officials told NBC News. The suspects are accused of taking part in the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

According to the officials, the U.S. had "actionable intelligence” gathered by U.S. Special Operations Forces and local tribal leaders that the suspects were in the area.

The suspects reportedly include Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, who is believed to be the mastermind of the 1998 attacks on U.S. Embassies in Africa that killed more than 200, and the 2002 Kenya attack on an Israeli hotel and simultaneous attempt to bring down an Israeli plane.

This isn't the first time that the US has tried to nail these guys in Somalia, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Good hunting.

Somalia in Crisis

The New York Times reports that Somalia is heading towards its worst crisis yet. That's a curious position to take considering that the country has seen no functional central government in decades and the lawlessness has been a way of life for a generation.

Hundreds of thousands have sought sanctuary in squalid refugee camps.

Fatality figures vary widely, but the most conservative estimates put the toll from the past month near 1,000, with 200 people killed in the past week.

Most of the victims are civilians caught in a cross-fire of shelling between insurgents and government troops. Entire city blocks and countless homes have been leveled.

The shelling in some of Mogadishu’s neighborhoods was so intense on Sunday that many residents were unable to get to hospitals — or cemeteries. Some people buried their relatives in makeshift graves, along streets under mounds of gravel.

“They are pounding us,” said Fadumo Ali Hussein, a mother of eight children.

Ms. Hussein said her sister bled to death on Sunday after she was hit by a piece of shrapnel.

“We couldn’t get her to a doctor,” she said.

Diplomatically, things look grim, too. On Saturday, Eritrea, a neighbor widely suspected by Ethiopian intelligence agents of supporting Islamists in Somalia, pulled out of a regional organization that had been acting as a counterweight to rising tensions in the region.

The organization, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which included Kenya, Uganda, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea, was trying to broker peace in Somalia and address the combustible rivalry between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The two countries recently fought a costly border war, and many diplomats fear that Somalia could turn into a proxy battle, with Ethiopia supporting Somalia’s weak transitional government and Eritrea backing the insurgents.

The Foreign Ministry of Eritrea issued a short statement saying that it had “suspended membership” in the regional organization because of “a number of repeated and irresponsible resolutions.”

The African Union has also tried to intervene in Somalia and earlier this year promised to quickly dispatch 8,000 peacekeepers. But so far, only about 1,500 Ugandan soldiers have arrived, and they are mostly hunkered down at the airport in Mogadishu.

Secretary General Ban Ki-moon of the United Nations said in a report released Friday that more drastic steps might need to be taken, including forming a “coalition of the willing” to step into Somalia to restore order.

But Somalia’s government seems to be in no mood to stop the fighting. Ali Mohamed Gedi, the transitional prime minister, warned Mogadishu’s residents, thought to number around two million before the recent clashes, to clear out of the city because there was no cease-fire in sight.

“Until the terrorists are wiped out from Somalia, the fighting will go on,” Mr. Gedi said in a radio interview broadcast this weekend. “The battle is clearly between terrorists linked to Al Qaeda and the government supported by Ethiopian and A.U. troops.”

Ah, another coalition of the willing. Who will step up? Count on the US being asked to do the heavy lifting once again? Somalia's government recognizes the ongoing threat posed by the Islamists who seek to reimpose their dominion. They're engaged in an insurgency designed to maximize casualties and have no interest in peaceful coexistence.

Video Coming From the Great Beyond?

CENTCOM is reporting that one of the jihadi websites is claiming that they're going to be releasing a new video showing Osama. I can't wait to hear what they've cooked up. Andrew at the Counterterrorism Blog can't remember whether CENTCOM has ever issued a release such as this before. This might be the first time, as I can't either.

Allahpundit is somewhat dubious at the possibility that Osama will appear. He thinks it is more likely that it will be a video from Number 2 - Zawahiri.

The fact is that al Qaeda is taking a pasting in Iraq and getting it from every corner. Sunnis, Shiites, Iraqi forces, US forces. He's got to do something to reverse the trend, and making an appeal to the jihadis is about all Osama can offer these days.

The Islamists were booted from Somalia, despite his calls for jihad there. Ethiopia had delivered quite the beating to jihadi forces there, despite Osama's calls for the jihad to spread to the Horn of Africa. The Islamic Courts are engaging in an insurgency, but they're the ones on the run. The same goes for al Qaeda and Taliban along the Afghan-Pakistani border, despite the safe haven afforded by some elements inside Pakistan.

Others blogging: Jammie Wearing Fool, LGF, Michelle Malkin, and The Jawa Report.

Sudan Seeking To Coopt African Union

Sudan would love to be the proverbial fox guarding the henhouse. Sudan wants to lead the African Union.

Are you kidding me?!

Sudan has opposed peacekeeping operations and would be the equivalent of putting Iran in charge of the IAEA or the Saudis in charge of religious tolerance, etc.

The 53-member AU meets this week in Ethiopia to choose its new chairman among African heads of states. The spiraling violence in Sudan's western Darfur region, where the AU has 7,000 peacekeepers, is expected to top the agenda.

Many observers say al-Bashir is a party to the conflict and should not chair the organization.

Khartoum says AU leaders already agreed to select al-Bashir during last year's summit.

"African heads of states will have to stick to their word, otherwise what is the point for the AU to hold meetings and reach agreements?" said Sudanese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ali Sadiq.

But several African countries — backed by Western nations — oppose al-Bashir's bid to become chairman despite the agreement reported last year, diplomats in Khartoum said.

Here's what it means for Sadiq. Your country is a massive violator of human rights, including genocide, ethnic cleansing, and have done absolutely nothing to stop the carnage for years on end. Hundreds of thousands have been killed in the Darfur genocide, and more than 2 million have been displaced. The Sudanese government in Khartoum has effectively aligned with the Janjaweed, the Arab fighters who have conducted much of the carnage and terror in Darfur, and as such cannot and should not hold any position of any authority until that changes. Sudan does not get the opportunity to co-opt international organizations that are struggling to deal with the messes you've created.

The AU has peacekeepers in Sudan because of the gross violations of human rights perpetrated by the Sudanese government. It is the height of hypocrisy to even consider allowing Sudan the right to head up an organization that is attempting to restore peace to Darfur. Sudan has opposed peacekeeping operations in Darfur and has turned a blind eye to all the violence in the region.

What exactly would anyone expect if Sudan assumed the leadership position in the AU? Does anyone expect the AU to continue its peacekeeping operations or would it be sent home by Khartoum. How many more will die to find out?

Second Strike

US forces launched another attack against what are likely Somali Islamists and al Qaeda located in Somalia. Here's hoping that they got their intended targets.

The United States launched an air strike about two weeks ago against what officials then said were al Qaeda operatives.

The target of the second strike was unclear, but some officials indicated it was likely an al Qaeda operative. They would not say which day the strike occurred but it was this week.

A Pentagon spokesman declined to comment.

The US also refuses to confirm or deny that they have ground forces inside Somalia tracking down the Islamists and al Qaeda.

UPDATE:
Still no word on who or what was the target of the US airstrike, but mortar shells hit the Mogadishu airport, killing two Somalis. The Islamists will take credit.

At the same time, Ethiopian forces have laid out a plan to withdraw their forces in three phases.

Meles said he expected the deployment of the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) before the end of the third phase withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces.

He told a press conference that the Ethiopian forces began withdrawing from Somalia as of Tuesday.

Meles said the victory of the Ethiopian defense forces over the extremist group in Somalia without casualties on civilians showed the military capability and heroism of the defense forces.

He said the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces from the capital Mogadishu and other parts of Somalia would successfully be completed in the coming few weeks.

Ethiopia started withdrawing its troops as the TFG forces began stabilizing the country, Meles said.

Meles said warlords and their militias have become part of the army of the TFG through peaceful ways after handing over their armaments.

(TFG is the transitional government.) While the possibility exists that the Ethiopians smashed the Islamists in Somalia to eliminate a rival and have no interest in what happens in Somalia going forward, we do.

A Somalia without a functioning government that wields the force to eliminate militias and maintain territorial integrity is one mighty fine looking piece of real estate for al Qaeda to call home. No functioning government means a breeding ground for Islamists. Ethiopia might not find that situation worrisome now, but it will be like whack-a-mole. They'll have to keep going back, instead of the more difficult and long term job of trying to make a government work there.

Nigeria, meanwhile, says that it is willing to send troops to Somalia.

A battalion of Nigerian soldiers is expected to leave for Somalia in the next two weeks to join a planned African peacekeeping force in that country, Nigeria's defence minister told Reuters on Wednesday.

The African Union has proposed sending about 8 000 peacekeepers to Somalia to bolster the interim government after Ethiopian troops complete their pull out from the chaotic country.

Defence Minister Thomas Aguiyi-Ironsi said the Nigerian battalion, which normally contains between 770 and 1 000 troops, is already undergoing training and waiting for supplies and logistics to move into Somalia.

Somali Warlords Relinquish Weapons, Islamists Continue Fight

In a major step toward helping the fledgling government consolidate power, one of the most feared warlords in Somalia, Mohamed Dheere, gave the army chief 23 trucks mounted with heavy weapons and ordered 220 of his fighters to report for retraining at government camps. The handover took place during a ceremony in Dheere's stronghold of Jowhar, 55 miles north of Mogadishu, said Abdirahman Dinari, the government spokesman.

But fears of an Islamic fundamentalist insurgency grew following an ambush Saturday morning on a convoy of Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu. Late Friday, government troops repelled an attack on the Somali president's palace.

The gunmen fired on the convoy but missed. The Ethiopians returned fire, killing a man and a woman on the side of the road, said Hawa Malin, a resident who witnessed the ambush. Two other people died on the way to the hospital, medical officials said.

"The Ethiopians shot me," said Ali Kheyre Mumin, who was among three people wounded. "They shot at me and the others indiscriminately ... they shot everybody who was moving around."

On Saturday, a leader in Somalia's Council of Islamic Courts said his group was responsible for the attacks on the convoy and palace and promised that they would continue.

The Islamists don't care who dies as long as they can return to power. If they have to turn Mogadishu red with the blood of the transitional government, the Ethiopian forces, and the resident population, so be it. That's the ultimate goal - to reestablish an Islamic state in Somalia from which to spread their Islamist ideology across the border into Ethiopia, Kenya and beyond.

That Somalia would also be a safe harbor for al Qaeda is a continuing worry, which is why the US continues to provide tactical and logistical assistance to the Ethiopians, along with a small contingent of US forces inside Somalia hunting down al Qaeda operatives.

Somali Islamists Getting Help From Eritrea

The Somali Islamists were getting assistance from Ethiopia's arch rival Eritrea. Put it another way, and Eritrea was siding with al Qaeda and the Islamists against the official Somali government and Ethiopia.

Ethiopia’s longtime rival, Eritrea, had troops in the country for about four months prior to that. A confidential UN report drafted by the Monitoring Group on Somalia in late 2006 says that “2000 fully equipped combat troops from Eritrea” arrived to the north of Mogadishu in late August, and redeployed to different areas held by the ICU. According to high-level sources in Somalia’s transitional government and U.S. intelligence, these Eritrean troops never left the country—a development unknown to American policymakers until today.

Eritrea, an African nation found between the Red Sea and Ethiopia, has a history of violence with its larger neighbor. Eritrea fought a bloody campaign for independence from Ethiopia, which had annexed it in the early 1960s, and has since fought a border war with Ethiopia from 1998 until December 2000.

Eritrea supported the ICU as a proxy intended to destabilize Ethiopia, said Dahir Jibreel, the permanent secretary in charge of international cooperation for Somalia’s transitional government.

Pajamas Media spoke with Ismael “Buubba” Hurreh, the minister of foreign affairs and international cooperation for the transitional government of Somlia. He said that Eritrean soldiers have been fighting on the front lines alongside the ICU, and that hundreds of Eritreans have been killed since Ethiopia’s incursion.

This revelation sheds further light on how Eritrea has actively helped the ICU try to topple Somalia’s secular government. While the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia’s report makes clear that Eritrea provided a great deal of assistance to the Islamic Courts prior to the outbreak of the conflict with Ethiopia, this is the first confirmation that Eritrean troops have assumed an active combat role.

A senior U.S. military intelligence officer confirmed that Eritrean troops were killed during the initial fighting in Somalia. He said that the Eritreans were “assisting and facilitating,” essentially in a military advisor role, rather than taking the kind of active role that the Ethiopians have on the side of the transitional government. He declined to specify what kind of assistance the Eritreans have provided.

The Ethiopians had long contended that the Somali Islamists were threatening to destabilize and undermine Ethiopian territorial integrity, and this report bears out those fears, which pushed Ethiopia to act decisively.

Meanwhile, the last bastion of the Islamists inside Somalia is near collapse. Ed Morrissey has the details.

UPDATE 1/14/2007:
Cleaned up quoted text.

Jihadis Flocking to Somalia Like Moths to Flames

As we've seen over the past few weeks, the jihadis who have been heeding the calls of al Qaeda's Zawahiri and others seeking to go to war against the West have been flocking to Somalia to assist the Islamic Courts Union in their fight against the transitional government backed by the Ethiopian government and the West.

And many of those jihadis have ended up quite dead. Australians. Persons carrying American passports along with Somalis, Sudanese, Ethiopian, and Saudis have all made their way to Somalia and fought and died in jihad.

The African Union is looking at a way to fund peacekeeping operations in Somalia to take over when the Ethiopians finish their operations in assistance of the transitional government.

A leading Somali politician who has ties to the Islamists has called for the various sides to put down their weapons as he himself has dropped opposition to a peacekeeping operation to bring stability to the country. However, not everyone is happy with the ongoing Ethiopian presence. Somalia is still a violent place, and a move to disarm the various militias erupted in violence. People who haven't seen a functional government in nearly two decades aren't going to give up their weapons willingly or lightly.

Technorati: somalia, ethiopia, eritrea, african union, council of islamic courts, genocide, crimes against humanity, jihad, failure, and united nations

Al Qaeda Cheerleading Somali Islamists

Osama bin Laden’s deputy has called on Somalia’s Islamic militants to carry out suicide attacks on Ethiopian troops fighting in their country, according to a taped message posted on the Internet Friday.

Al-Qaida’s No. 2 also implores Muslims worldwide to support Somalia’s Islamists with fighters, money and expertise.

“I speak to you today as the crusader invader forces of Ethiopia violate the soil of the beloved Muslim Somalia,” Egyptian-born Ayman al-Zawahri said in the recording.

Considering that the Ethiopians have routed the Somali Islamists and have cornered roughly 600 of them in the far South of the country near the Kenyan border, I'd say that Zawahiri's exhortations to fight are an attempt to salvage a deteriorating situation.

The specter of an insurgency remains a definite possibility throughout Somalia, and it's one that Zawahiri is clearly hoping to ignite.

UPDATE:
Well some foreign jihadis have made their way into Somalia to fight the Ethiopians and stir up trouble. ABC News' Blotter reports that American passports were found among were among the bodies of jihadis killed in the battles with Somali and Ethiopian forces.

According to the same source, most of the foreign passports were Sudanese, Pakistani and Yemeni, but several American, British and Australian passports were also recovered.

The senior Somali government official told ABC News that the American passports found on the dead bodies near Baidoa, in Somalia, would be turned over to the American government.

Others commenting on this aspect of the story: Blue Crab Boulevard notes that the Ethiopian offensive has put the kibosh on the al Qaeda plans. Astute Blogger finds that this confirms the Bush vision of fighting the jihadis overseas so that we don't have to deal with them over here. I'm not sure I completely agree, but it has worked out that way so far. The key to keeping the fight overseas is to vigorously protect the rear - ensuring that the jihadis aren't able to operate inside the US and extend that to Europe as well. Europe is the battleground that has yet to play out since it is far too easy for the jihadis to enter overland. Jawa Report also comments.

Technorati: somalia, ethiopia, eritrea, african union, council of islamic courts, genocide, crimes against humanity, jihad, failure, and united nations

The Somali Islamist Collapse

Ralph Peters takes a critical eye to the swift collapse of the Somali Islamists and wonders what it means for the rest of the world's efforts to deal with the Islamist and jihadi threat. For starters, it is not a foregone conclusion that the jihadis will win:

Will the Islamic Courts Movement resort to terror and guerrilla operations? You bet. But trust me: They would've preferred to stay in power. The truth is that they were shocked by the speed and resolve of the Ethiopian attack - their al Qaeda advisers had grown used to dithering Western powers crippled by our superstitious faith in the power of negotiations.

The Ethiopians fought. And won. Could there be a lesson here?

Of course, Somalia won't become the new vacation spot of choice for the mega-rich - Somalis will show up with Kalashnikovs on the Day of Judgment. Yes, the Islamists will default to terror. But, just as it's better to have the Taliban raiding in the boonies rather than ruling Afghanistan, it's vastly preferable to have Somalia's Islamists and their foreign-terrorist allies conniving to regain power than to have them in charge of a strategically located state.

To Americans, Somalia is "Black Hawk Down" country, where our forces won a lopsided military victory only to have President Bill Clinton surrender to our enemies - the greatest single act of encouragement our government ever gave to the Islamist movement. We picture Somalia as a poor, dusty, war-ravaged place (all true) and as small, remote and unimportant (all wrong).

Somalia is the size of Texas with the Panhandle trimmed back; it has the longest coast on the African continent - over 2,000 miles of shoreline vitally positioned on the Indian Ocean and Red Sea. An artificial country slapped together by retreating colonial powers (who pretended that endlessly warring tribes would all just get along), its population by current guesses is just under 9 million.

Peters comments echo those I've made in the past. Somalia sits astride major trading routes, and has the potential to be a terrorist incubator for jihadis that can then spread out to the rest of the world. The world and the US can't ignore these issues.

Ethiopia sure didn't.

The Islamists are refusing to accept amnesty or lay down their weapons. That shouldn't surprise anyone, nor should it be surprising that the Ethiopians will stick around for a bit to make sure that they deal with the Islamists that decide to make a stand. Major fighting is apparently over, but expect to see flareups of violence as the jihadis take pages out of the Iraqi playbook to wreak havoc throughout the shattered countryside hoping to return to power in the wake of the violence.

Somali Islamists Vow To Continue Fight

Somalia’s Islamic leader vowed Friday to continue the fight against Ethiopia.

“We will not leave Somalia,” Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, the executive leader of the Council of Islamic Courts told The Associated Press. “We will not run away from our enemies. We will never depart from Somalia. We will stay in our homeland.”

He spoke from the southern coastal port of Kismayo, where his forces retreated after abandoning the capital Mogadishu, which they had held for six months.

They're not going to depart from Somalia, but have no problem exporting their jihad to Ethiopia or fomenting violence elsewhere on the Horn of Africa. The situation in Somalia remains bleak given the tribal/clan nature of the region. Tribes have more loyalties to each other than to the transitional government. The Islamists were able to take advantage of the tribal/clan nature by playing up the law and order nature of their movement claiming that they would restore order to the region following years of war. Problem was, that law and order had no room for anyone who opposed the religious nature of that law and order - it was Islamic law and those who opposed the imposition of the Islamic law were treated harshly and violently.

Technorati: somalia, ethiopia, eritrea, african union, council of islamic courts, genocide, crimes against humanity, jihad, failure, and united nations

Islamists Routed From Mogadishu

The New York Times reports that the Islamists have fled from Mogadishu in the face of the transitional government forces backed by the Ethiopian army.

Just hours after the Islamist forces abandoned Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, militias loyal to the transitional government seized the city today in a stunning reversal of fortunes.

According to residents, troops from the transitional government, along with Ethiopian soldiers who had been backing them up, poured into the capital from the outskirts of the city while militiamen within Mogadishu occupied key positions, like the port, airport and dilapidated presidential palace.

“The government has taken over Mogadishu,” a transitional government leader, Jama Fuuruh, told Reuters by telephone from Mogadishu’s port.

“ We are now in charge."

Mogadishu’s new powers immediately had to deal with a rising level of chaos, as armed bandits swept the city and fragmented clan militia began to battle each other for the spoils of war. Witnesses said an intense gun battle raged around a former Islamist ammunition dump and that clan warlords had instantly reverted back to setting up roadside checkpoints and shaking down motorists for money. Many terrified residents stayed in their homes behind bolted doors and the few that ventured into the streets carried guns.

“No one is really in command,” said one adviser to Western diplomats who has close contacts with both the Islamists and the transitional government. “Chaos is in command.”

People inside Mogadishu and out are stunned. The Islamist forces, just a few weeks ago the most powerful force in the country and considered a regional menace, had disintegrated after just four days of counter-attacks by the Ethiopian-led troops. There were reports that the Islamist leaders had gone underground, fleeing deep into the Somali bush. There were also worries that they had simply changed tactics and could be planning to employ guerilla warfare and terrorist attacks, as they had threatened to do. Today, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed , a top Islamist leader, said his forces had surrendered the city to avoid a bloodbath.

Curious that Ahmed would surrender the city to avoid a bloodbath when Islamic law requires retaking lands lost to infidels. Bill Roggio also reports on the resignations of key leaders of the Islamic courts. And it was only yesterday that they vowed to fight to the death. Gaius notes that the Times seems disappointed that the Islamists cut and ran.

The larger problem is that Mogadishu has descended into chaos once again and it is up to the transitional government and Ethiopian army to try and regain control over the battered city. Bryan at Hot Air notes that Ethiopia correctly determined the threat posed by the Islamic courts and took decisive action to eliminate the threat.

The swift fall of the Islamists from power in Mogadishu should be correctly seen as a big victory against the Islamists and the jihadis. The problem will be the follow up as the Islamists simply melted into the background where they can still cause trouble - watch for an insurgency operation to unfold in coming weeks as the Islamists are not going to give up the grip that easily. They saw their forces destroyed when engaging in combat operations with the Ethiopian army, but know that if they follow the Iraqi model, they could be successful at creating a perception of stalemate that favors them.

While we're at it, there is absolutely no way anyone should accept a ceasefire before the Islamists surrender unconditionally or are crushed. The UN should not stick its nose into this matter to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Others taking note of the routed Islamists from Mogadishu: JammieWearingFool, Euphoric Reality, and the fine folks at memeorandum.

UPDATE:
Yemeni forces attacked four Somali ships carrying more than 500 refugees and one capsized. Seventeen people drowned and more than 100 are missing.

UPDATE:
The more things change, the more they remain the same. Here's a US State Department document from 1973 noting the Somali threat against Ethiopia and a recommendation to assist the Ethiopians. It isn't too difficult to see the parallels to the current situation. Simply switch Soviet with Islamist.

Here's still more on the US view of Ethiopia and the Somali threat from 1973.

Technorati: somalia, ethiopia, eritrea, african union, council of islamic courts, genocide, crimes against humanity, jihad, failure, and united nations

Ethiopians Continue Rout of Islamists in Somalia

Ethiopian forces continue push on Mogadishu and the Islamic courts forces are calling it a strategic retreat (I'd call it a rout). They've been forced from yet another town as the Ethiopian forces continue to swiftly move on the Somali capital city. They're within 18 miles of the capital.

Some don't like that the Islamists are losing and see the US behind the conflict.

The Islamists for their part are warning of a quagmire and long conflict. Actually, it appears that they're hoping that there's a quagmire because they figure that Ethiopia will lose the will to fight and pull out leaving Somalia in the hands of the remnants of the Islamic courts. The UN wants to help that process along by calling for a ceasefire. Hot Air concurs and wonders what they've been smoking in the diplomatic corps that makes the notion of a powersharing arrangement between the Islamists in Somalia and the legitimate transitional government even a possibility especially when the Islamists have sided with al Qaeda and have openly called for the jihadis to come join their fight.

One has seriously wonder about this kind of analysis:

Though allowing the Islamists to take power is hardly a good option, it is probably the best one. Islamists have already shown themselves able to bring stability to Mogadishu. It seems likely that they could do the same for the rest of Somalia, ending the anarchy that has plagued the country for a decade and a half.

Furthermore, since the dominance of the Islamists in Somalia is looking increasingly inevitable, the Bush administration should make the best of it. Even with direct American aid to the anti-Islamist forces, it seems unlikely that the Somali government will ever regain control of the country. While the Bush administration has pursued a strategy of "anyone but the Islamists," (first through aid to warlords and now through tacit support for Somali and Ethiopian forces) this is the wrong approach. The US, along with its European allies, should realize that the war is unwinnable and try instead to reach a power-sharing deal between members of Somalia's Baidoa-based government and the Islamists. By using our influence to negotiate a peace agreement between the two sides, we could encourage the formation of a more moderate government that respects human rights.

Calling the Islamists a stabilizing influence is like calling Mussolini a success because he made the trains run on time or Hitler was successful because he built the Autobahn. The Islamists are imposing their form of law and order by killing all those who oppose their version of Islamic law. They've simply managed to be more efficient at killing and cowing the public than the other groups that have sought control over Somalia.

With the Ethiopians now involved, the calculus has changed. The Islamists are on the run and there's no amount of pressure that would force moderation on a group whose core beliefs are religious in nature short of unconditional defeat. They aren't going to moderate their religious beliefs based on a package of economic aid.

Technorati: somalia, ethiopia, eritrea, african union, council of islamic courts, genocide, crimes against humanity, jihad, failure, and united nations

Somali Islamists on Retreat After Ethiopian Attacks

The United States and the West better be paying attention to what's going on in Africa as the failed states there are a veritable breeding ground for Islamists and jihadis. Somalia is only the latest example, and it is there that our interests in eliminating an Islamic state forming meshes well with the Ethiopians who have been threatened with jihad by the Islamic courts who are in control of much of Somalia:

Islamic fighters retreated Tuesday as Somali government and Ethiopian troops advanced on three fronts in a decisive turn in the battle for control of this Horn of Africa nation.

Somalia's internationally backed government called on the Council of Islamic Courts to surrender and promised amnesty if they lay down their weapons, spokesman Abdirahman Dinari said from Baidoa, the seat of the interim administration.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, whose military openly joined the war Sunday after weeks of quietly aiding the Somali government, said his forces had completed about half their mission.

"As soon as we have accomplished our mission — and about half of our mission is done, and the rest shouldn't take long — we'll be out," Meles told reporters in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.

Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, leader of the Council of Islamic Courts' executive body, said the group had told its troops to withdraw from some areas.

The fight is far from over, but the Islamists are going up against an actual army in this fight, and not the ragtag group that the Somali transitional government set forth against the Islamic courts. The Islamic courts were able to trounce the transitional government and force it from Mogadishu, and Ethiopia stepped in to assist the transitional government.

Ethiopia is threatened by the Islamic courts because the Islamic courts have been fostering and supporting those Somalis living along the common border to try and expand Somali claims on the land that is within Ethiopia's borders. The US should be backing the Ethiopian fight considering that the Islamic courts have been calling for jihadis from around the world to rally to their cause, making Somalia a breeding ground and a place where they congregate under a friendly regime. That cannot be allowed to stand.

A scorecard for keeping track of who's involved. And Ed Morrissey points out which side the AP is rooting for - the Islamists who 'brought law to a lawless region,' even if it meant killing those who might want to watch World Cup soccer matches, or dress in a way that was considered unIslamic.

Others blogging: Jules Critteden, Outside the Beltway, Blue Crab Boulevard.

UPDATE:
Hot Air notes a sneering op-ed in the IHT by a former UN official who thinks that the conflict between the Ethiopians and Somalis is being stoked by the US. Sorry, but the facts simply don't wash. While the US has an interest in seeing that the Somalis are contained and the jihadi threat extinguished, the Ethiopians have a bigger interest - namely eliminating a threat to their country in the form of the Islamic courts.

Truthout has several other reports from Somalia. Time Magazine notes that the conflict is heating up and that the UN Security Council will be taking up the issue (that can't be good, for the Ethiopians, that is):

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, whose military openly joined the war Sunday after weeks of quietly aiding the Somali government, said his forces had completed about half their mission. "As soon as we have accomplished our mission — and about half of our mission is done, and the rest shouldn't take long — we'll be out," Meles told reporters in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. He also claimed Islamic militiamen had suffered heavy casualties, citing internal reports from Ethiopia's military. "I hear reports of close to 3,000 injured in Mogadishu's hospitals ... and well over 1,000 might have died," Meles said.

The U.N. Security Council called an emergency meeting Tuesday to be briefed on the fighting. An African force authoritized by the Security Council on Dec. 6 to protect the Somali government has not yet been deployed. The Dec. 6 resolution, sponsored by the United States and co-sponsored by the council's African members, also partially lifted an arms embargo on Somalia so the regional force could be supplied with weapons and military equipment. Both sides have claimed to have killed hundreds of their enemy, but independent observers have not been given access to the battlefields to check on the reports.

Gateway Pundit notes that the transitional government is calling on the Islamic courts to surrender. Gateway also notes that the jihadis aren't beyond trying to pull a fauxtography to show that they're winning when all evidence points to the contrary and that the Ethiopians got wise to the jihadi tricks.

Others blogging: Western Resistance notes that armor (even old Soviet stuff) still defeats jihadis riding in technicals; Clarity and Resolve; JoshuaPundit; YARWCB.

Technorati: somalia, ethiopia, eritrea, african union, council of islamic courts, genocide, crimes against humanity, jihad, failure, and united nations

Ethiopian Campaign Against Somali Islamists Intensifies

Ethiopian fighter jets bombed two main airports in Somalia on Monday, including Mogadishu International Airport, in the first direct attack on the headquarters of an Islamic movement attempting to wrest power from the internationally recognized government.

Russian-made jets swept low over the capital at midmorning, dropping two bombs on Somalia's main airport, which recently reopened after the Islamic takeover of Mogadishu. An Associated Press reporter who arrived shortly after the strike saw one wounded woman taken away. The runway and one building used by the Islamic forces were damaged.

Shortly afterward, Baledogle Airport, about 60 miles outside Mogadishu, was hit, an Islamic soldier said. There were no reliable casualty reports available for either attack.

"The Ethiopian government is bombing non-civilian targets in Somalia in order to disable and prevent the delivery of arms and supplies to the Islamic courts," said Bereket Simon, an adviser to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Ethiopia and the Somali government have long accused the Islamic council of recruiting foreign fighters into its ranks.

It is always interesting that the world reserves its criticism for this kind of action (bombing airports and other facilities that serve dual purposes - military and civilian) for Israel. Israel was heavily criticized when it bombed the Beirut airport because it was trying to deny Hizbullah the ability to resupply via air. There simply isn't that kind of criticism when Ethiopia takes a page out of the Israeli playbook and goes after the logistical supply routes.

The Ethiopians know what they're up against. The Islamists have called upon their jihadi minions from across the region to come to their aid to fight against Ethiopia and spread Islam by the sword. The problem is that the Islamists can resupply by the ocean. The Ethiopians simply can't patrol 1,800+ miles of Somali coastline to interdict arms supplies and jihadis coming into Somalia to bolster the Islamic courts. However, the Ethiopians can limit the ability of those jihadis to move around Somalia and take them out as their positions become apparent.

UPDATE:
The NYT has a lengthy piece on the war.

The coordinated assault was the first open admission by Ethiopia’s Christian-led government of its military operations inside Somalia, where — with tacit American support — it has been helping a weak interim government threatened by forces loyal to the Islamic clerics who control the longtime capital, Mogadishu, and much of the country.

Ethiopia’s prime minister, Meles Zenawi, said in a televised broadcast that he had ordered the action because he had no choice.

“Ethiopian defense forces were forced to enter into war to protect the sovereignty of the nation,” he said. “We are not trying to set up a government for Somalia, nor do we have an intention to meddle in Somalia’s internal affairs. We have only been forced by the circumstances.”

According to witnesses, Ethiopian fighter jets bombarded several towns, obliterating an Islamist recruitment center and other targets, while Ethiopian tanks rolled into battle. The attacks set off riots in Mogadishu, Somalia’s battle-scarred seaside capital, and fighting on several fronts in southern Somalia.

Ethiopia, which commands the region’s most powerful military, did not disclose how many troops, tanks or planes it had sent into Somalia, but the United Nations has said at least 8,000 Ethiopian soldiers may be in the country. Casualties were reported Sunday, but reliable estimates were impossible to ascertain.

Technorati: somalia, ethiopia, eritrea, african union, council of islamic courts, genocide, crimes against humanity, jihad, failure, and united nations

The Exploding Horn of Africa

Ethiopia has launched airstrikes in Somalia against the Islamists who have threatened to take over the entire country and spread the jihad to neighboring countries - especially Ethiopia if Ethiopia doesn't stop supporting the transitional government that was forced from Mogadishu over the summer.

Ethiopian fighter jets pounded several Somali towns held by a powerful Islamic militia, a sharp escalation in violence that threatens to engulf the volatile Horn of Africa in widespread violence.

Ethiopia confirmed the attacks, the first time it has acknowledged that its troops were fighting in Somalia, though witnesses have reported their presence for weeks.

The airstrikes hit the strategic town of Belet Weyne on the Ethiopian border and surrounding villages up to 12 miles away, said Sheik Mohamoud Ibrahim Suley, an official with Somalia's Council of Islamic Courts. A resident of Belet Weyne — Ayanle Husein Abdi — said the strikes hit a strategic road and a recruiting center.

Ethiopia said it was acting to defend itself.

"After too much patience, the Ethiopian government has taken a self-defensive measure and has begun counterattacking the aggressive extremist forces," said Solomon Abebe, Ethiopia's foreign affairs spokesman.

Abdi said that the planes hit an Islamic center where the Islamic officials in the region enrolled volunteers who wanted to join the war. Another witness, Said Abukar Sahal, said the strikes were targeting the roads and defenses of the Islamic militia.

Ethiopia recognizes the threat knocking at its door, and is attempting to fight back before it is too late. Note the following:

The Ethiopian airstrikes on Sunday were the first against Somalia's Islamic movement. Ethiopia and Somalia have fought two wars over their disputed border in the last 45 years. Islamic court leaders have repeatedly said they want to incorporate ethnic Somalis living in eastern Ethiopia, northeastern Kenya and Djibouti into a Greater Somalia.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has said his government has a legal and moral obligation to support and defend Somalia's internationally recognized government. He has repeatedly accused the Islamic courts of backing ethnic Somali rebels fighting for independence from Ethiopia and has called such support an act of war.

As Sunday's fighting wore on, the Islamic leadership in the capital, Mogadishu, began broadcasting patriotic songs about Somalia's 1977 war with Ethiopia. Although the two countries view each other as enemies, Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf is a longtime ally of Ethiopia.

Islamic court leaders are talking about jihad; they want to recover the Dar al Islam - the lands of Islam and by doing so ignore the borders that have been set by prior conflicts.

This is what the Islamists are about. They are expansionist and are not content with the current borders. They want to expand, and the results are bloody.

UPDATE:
Gateway Pundit also picks up on the Somali Islamists and their call on other Islamists to heed their call to fight against the infidels - the Ethiopians. Matthew Yglesias comments that while there are Islamists on one side (the Somalis), the Ethiopians are comprised of Muslims and Christians. Others blogging the expanding conflict on the Horn of Africa: SeeDubya, Dan Riehl, Pajamas Media, Ed Morrissey, Blue Crab Boulevard, Hot Air, and Bill's Bites.

Technorati: somalia, ethiopia, eritrea, african union, council of islamic courts, genocide, crimes against humanity, jihad, failure, and united nations

Way Past the Brink

Sorry, but the San Jose Mercury News misses the mark by claiming that Somalia is on the brink of a civil war. The third paragraph gives lie to the whole idea that this is a civil war in the making. It's already been going on since the summer:

Clashes between Islamist fighters and Ethiopian-backed government soldiers heightened fears Wednesday that Somalia is inching toward a civil war that could drag in the entire Horn of Africa.

As international negotiators worked furiously to resolve the dispute, armed battles around Somalia's transitional capital of Baidoa killed at least one government soldier, according Somali officials.

Islamist leaders, who seized control of Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia from warlords this summer, are calling for a ``holy war'' against Christian-dominated Ethiopia unless the neighboring nation withdraws its troops, which were sent across the border to prop up Somalia's weak transitional government.

Both sides have been massing weapons and troops in strategic points around southern Somalia in recent weeks.

The Islamists are ready to make a final push to eliminate their rivals who have the support of the West and Ethiopia. The Islamists have been warning Ethiopia of getting involved in the conflict in Somalia that jihad will come their way if they don't stop.

New Phase of Violence on Horn of Africa Imminent

The NY Times reports that the situation in Somalia may turn into a full fledged war between the Islamists in Mogadishu and the Ethiopian military, which has been backing the transitional government in the north. The UN is also involved:

Somalia's powerful Islamist movement said on Thursday that U.N. endorsement of an African peacekeeping force will "add fuel to the fire" in the Horn of Africa nation many fear is on the verge of all-out war.

But the interim government -- whose aspirations of restoring central rule to Somalia were dented by the rise of the Islamists this year -- welcomed the prospect of military support and cited resolution promoter the United Sates for special thanks.

Despite fears that a peacekeeping force may draw foreign jihadists into Somalia, the U.N. Security Council approved the measure on Wednesday with the explicit aim of propping up the Western-backed government of President Abdullahi Yusuf.

The Yusuf government's bid to restore central rule for the first time since 1991 has been hurt by the Islamists' takeover of Mogadishu and a swathe of south Somalia since June. Following European pressure on Washington, the U.N. motion was watered down to bar peacekeepers from border states, whose presence in Somalia was viewed as potentially inflammatory.

The Islamists have beaten back the transitional government at every turn, and this has been bad news for anyone who might not be an Islamist. Watching the World Cup turned out to be a deadly choice.

Matthew Yglesias says he should have been paying more attention to this problem for months now:

I'm now wishing I'd paid more attention to that whole "Islamists take control in Somalia" story back from a few months ago. Apparently, we're looking at war: "The inevitability of war hangs over Mogadishu, Somalia’s bullet-pocked seaside capital. But unlike the internal anarchy that has consumed the country for 15 years, the looming battle is now with Ethiopia, threatening to further destabilize the troubled Horn of Africa."

I have, obviously, a very weak grasp of the specifics here. In a broad sense, though, giving Ethiopia "tacit approval" to begin "slipping soldiers across the border" seems like a mistake unless the idea was to deliberately try and start a Christians versus Muslims war in East Africa.

Sadly, he's not alone as most of the world hasn't been paying attention to the growing crises in Africa.

I've been a strong proponent of dealing with failed states and have noted that Somalia is among those states primed for not only Islamist rule, but to become jihadi incubators for the next generation of international terrorists.

Ignoring the problem or hoping that an ineffecutal UN will somehow ride to the rescue is not going to solve the problem. Nation building is shunned by most nations, especially the US given the current problems in Iraq. Yet, nation building is precisely what needs to happen in these areas because the lawlessness is what makes them prime real estate for terrorists and thugs to base their operations.



That map shows the strategic interests involved. Terrorists and jihadis operating from Somalia could affect international trade flowing through the Suez Canal in direct attacks on shipping. They could shuttle terrorists into and out of Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries, and could destabilize neighboring nations including Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djbouti.

Ethiopia can and will suffer from the Islamists on its borders. It shares 1,600 kilometers of border with Somalia. That's a whole lot of territory to police and worry about jihadis infiltrating into Ethiopia and stirring up trouble where Muslims make up about half of the Ethiopian population with Eastern Orthodox Christians and Animists making up the remainder.

And the continuing threat to human rights remains a great concern, though one would be hard pressed to find the UN willing to discuss the matter.

Kofi's Stone Throwing

His last official appearance is December 19. To the end, he refused to call the Darfur situation genocide, which would have mandated action by the UN to intervene. And that he can even see to mention Darfur at all is seen as an accomplishment since he's tried to avoid any discussion of the matter for fear of offending the thugs in Khartoum. Meanwhile the violence continues as Khartoum dickers over the terms of a UN/AU peacekeeping force.

He personally refused to intervene in Rwanda and his butcher's bill exceeds 800,000 from that debacle. Tragic comedy that is more tragedy than comedy.

Then there's the failures listed at Hot Air; ones we're all familiar with, even as Kofi wonders where he's going to spend his retirement and ill gotten gains (perhaps in a country without extradition with the US?).

What do we learn from this? Kofi has never been held accountable for his actions. UNSCAM blows up and he's not held accountable. Peacekeepers engaging in sexual misconduct with those they were sent to protect. Inadequate action taken, and the misconduct continues on missions around the world, including in Haiti and in Africa. Members of the Secretariat are implicated in sexual harassment scandals. No action taken.

The list is endless, yet Kofi feels the need to talk about American accountability yet he feels that the UN should have no accountability for all the pain, misery, and suffering it has inflicted on the downtrodden around the world. From the inability to send peacekeepers to Darfur until hundreds of thousands were slaughtered to Rwanda where the slaughter was complete before uttering a phrase even remotely close to the word genocide, Kofi has sat on his hands while butchers, thugs, and despots slaughtered the innocents. He coddled Saddam Hussein, all the while he slaughtered hundreds of thousands of Kurds and Shi'ites - and for which he now stands on trial for crimes against humanity and genocide - not because the UN took action, but because the US and a coalition of nations realized that something had to be done following all those UN resolutions demanding Iraqi compliance meant nothing.

It was on Kofi's watch that the irrelevance of the UN except as a debating society and to hamstring US foreign policy was made explicit. Attacking Israel became a daily chore for the General Assembly and the Human Rights Commission, which ignored real issues like Darfur, child soldiers, slavery, and a whole host of miseries inflicted on people around the world by the very members of the HRC itself. That such gross violators of human rights would sit in judgment on such a panel is itself a testament to the failures of the UN to deal with the structural and procedural failings - and Kofi's refusal to deal with reform in any meaningful way.

Instead, Kofi has the audacity to attack the US, which is the largest benefactor to the UN, provides the bulk of logistical support for UN peacekeeping operations, and puts the UN to shame when there's an international crisis such as a tsunami or earthquake by being able to provide aid immediately and without convening crisis groups and panels to determine what might be needed for the advance team to set up shop.

Others blogging: Charles at LGF, Stop the ACLU, The American Pundit, and Michelle Malkin.

UPDATE:
Dr. Sanity puts the curse of Annan to verse.

Others blogging: Macranger, Dan Riehl, Decision 08, American Thinker, It Shines For All, GOP and College, Kim Priestap, and Wizbang.

UPDATE:
The situation in Darfur is going to get a whole lot more complicated as AU peacekeepers shot and killed three Darfur refugees.

African Union peacekeepers killed three Darfur rioters when a crowd of angry refugees threatened to break into their base in the town of El Geneina, a U.N. official said Monday.

It was the first time peacekeepers have killed Darfur civilians, marking new deterioration in the war-torn region of western Sudan. In a separate incident, the African Union reported Monday that gunmen had kidnapped two of its peacekeepers the night before.

After the riot and shooting on Sunday, Sudanese police deployed around the African Union base to protect the peacekeepers, aid workers in El Geneina said.

The refugees protesting at the base were relatives of 30 civilians who were executed by pro-government janjaweed fighters on Saturday. They were protesting against the African Union for what they say is the peacekeeping force's failure to protect them.

Earlier coverage is here.

Technorati: darfur, dafur, UN, sudan, chad, somalia, ethiopia, eritrea, african union, janjaweed, genocide, crimes against humanity, kofi, failure, and Kofi Annan