The Somali Islamist Collapse

Ralph Peters takes a critical eye to the swift collapse of the Somali Islamists and wonders what it means for the rest of the world's efforts to deal with the Islamist and jihadi threat. For starters, it is not a foregone conclusion that the jihadis will win:

Will the Islamic Courts Movement resort to terror and guerrilla operations? You bet. But trust me: They would've preferred to stay in power. The truth is that they were shocked by the speed and resolve of the Ethiopian attack - their al Qaeda advisers had grown used to dithering Western powers crippled by our superstitious faith in the power of negotiations.

The Ethiopians fought. And won. Could there be a lesson here?

Of course, Somalia won't become the new vacation spot of choice for the mega-rich - Somalis will show up with Kalashnikovs on the Day of Judgment. Yes, the Islamists will default to terror. But, just as it's better to have the Taliban raiding in the boonies rather than ruling Afghanistan, it's vastly preferable to have Somalia's Islamists and their foreign-terrorist allies conniving to regain power than to have them in charge of a strategically located state.

To Americans, Somalia is "Black Hawk Down" country, where our forces won a lopsided military victory only to have President Bill Clinton surrender to our enemies - the greatest single act of encouragement our government ever gave to the Islamist movement. We picture Somalia as a poor, dusty, war-ravaged place (all true) and as small, remote and unimportant (all wrong).

Somalia is the size of Texas with the Panhandle trimmed back; it has the longest coast on the African continent - over 2,000 miles of shoreline vitally positioned on the Indian Ocean and Red Sea. An artificial country slapped together by retreating colonial powers (who pretended that endlessly warring tribes would all just get along), its population by current guesses is just under 9 million.

Peters comments echo those I've made in the past. Somalia sits astride major trading routes, and has the potential to be a terrorist incubator for jihadis that can then spread out to the rest of the world. The world and the US can't ignore these issues.

Ethiopia sure didn't.

The Islamists are refusing to accept amnesty or lay down their weapons. That shouldn't surprise anyone, nor should it be surprising that the Ethiopians will stick around for a bit to make sure that they deal with the Islamists that decide to make a stand. Major fighting is apparently over, but expect to see flareups of violence as the jihadis take pages out of the Iraqi playbook to wreak havoc throughout the shattered countryside hoping to return to power in the wake of the violence.