New Phase of Violence on Horn of Africa Imminent

The NY Times reports that the situation in Somalia may turn into a full fledged war between the Islamists in Mogadishu and the Ethiopian military, which has been backing the transitional government in the north. The UN is also involved:

Somalia's powerful Islamist movement said on Thursday that U.N. endorsement of an African peacekeeping force will "add fuel to the fire" in the Horn of Africa nation many fear is on the verge of all-out war.

But the interim government -- whose aspirations of restoring central rule to Somalia were dented by the rise of the Islamists this year -- welcomed the prospect of military support and cited resolution promoter the United Sates for special thanks.

Despite fears that a peacekeeping force may draw foreign jihadists into Somalia, the U.N. Security Council approved the measure on Wednesday with the explicit aim of propping up the Western-backed government of President Abdullahi Yusuf.

The Yusuf government's bid to restore central rule for the first time since 1991 has been hurt by the Islamists' takeover of Mogadishu and a swathe of south Somalia since June. Following European pressure on Washington, the U.N. motion was watered down to bar peacekeepers from border states, whose presence in Somalia was viewed as potentially inflammatory.

The Islamists have beaten back the transitional government at every turn, and this has been bad news for anyone who might not be an Islamist. Watching the World Cup turned out to be a deadly choice.

Matthew Yglesias says he should have been paying more attention to this problem for months now:

I'm now wishing I'd paid more attention to that whole "Islamists take control in Somalia" story back from a few months ago. Apparently, we're looking at war: "The inevitability of war hangs over Mogadishu, Somalia’s bullet-pocked seaside capital. But unlike the internal anarchy that has consumed the country for 15 years, the looming battle is now with Ethiopia, threatening to further destabilize the troubled Horn of Africa."

I have, obviously, a very weak grasp of the specifics here. In a broad sense, though, giving Ethiopia "tacit approval" to begin "slipping soldiers across the border" seems like a mistake unless the idea was to deliberately try and start a Christians versus Muslims war in East Africa.

Sadly, he's not alone as most of the world hasn't been paying attention to the growing crises in Africa.

I've been a strong proponent of dealing with failed states and have noted that Somalia is among those states primed for not only Islamist rule, but to become jihadi incubators for the next generation of international terrorists.

Ignoring the problem or hoping that an ineffecutal UN will somehow ride to the rescue is not going to solve the problem. Nation building is shunned by most nations, especially the US given the current problems in Iraq. Yet, nation building is precisely what needs to happen in these areas because the lawlessness is what makes them prime real estate for terrorists and thugs to base their operations.



That map shows the strategic interests involved. Terrorists and jihadis operating from Somalia could affect international trade flowing through the Suez Canal in direct attacks on shipping. They could shuttle terrorists into and out of Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries, and could destabilize neighboring nations including Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djbouti.

Ethiopia can and will suffer from the Islamists on its borders. It shares 1,600 kilometers of border with Somalia. That's a whole lot of territory to police and worry about jihadis infiltrating into Ethiopia and stirring up trouble where Muslims make up about half of the Ethiopian population with Eastern Orthodox Christians and Animists making up the remainder.

And the continuing threat to human rights remains a great concern, though one would be hard pressed to find the UN willing to discuss the matter.