Saturday, July 22, 2006

Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell, Part V

So what exactly does a robust international force mean? Does it mean a force that will shoot back at Hizbullah? Will it hunt down Hizbullah bases of operation and eliminate them? Callimachus posting at Michael Totten notes the Tom Friedman op-ed that calls for precisely that - a robust international force to disarm and pacify the Lebanese frontier.
Lebanon, alas, has not been able to produce the internal coherence to control Hezbollah, and is not likely to soon. The only way this war is going to come to some stable conclusion anytime soon is if The World of Order — and I don't just mean "the West," but countries like Russia, China, India, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia too — puts together an international force that can escort the Lebanese army to the Israeli border and remain on hand to protect it against Hezbollah.

I am not talking about a U.N. peacekeeping force. I am talking about an international force, like the one that liberated Kosovo, with robust rules of engagement, heavy weapons and troops from countries like France, Russia, India and China that Iran and its proxies will not want to fight.

Israel does not like international forces on its borders and worries they will not be effective. But it will be better than a war of attrition, and nothing would set back the forces of disorder in Lebanon more than The World of Order helping to extend the power of the democratically elected Lebanese government to its border with Israel.
Where I disagree with Friedman is that the international force will not only be ineffective, but one has to wonder who will stock this force. Who has the capabilities and the willpower to see a peacemaking force operate? There aren't that many countries out there.

Having the world by the balls. Inartful, but highly accurate and concise. It's how the terrorists take advantage of the fact that they can live and operate among civilians, preparing and waging war against others, and know that when justice comes for them, it will mean civilian casualties. Via Callimachus.

Of course all this diplomatic action would be rendered moot if Hizbullah simply released the two Israelis they're holding. That's still not going to happen according to Hizbullah, so the military action they're craving is going to come sooner or later.

Israel is going ahead with procuring more ordnance from the United States, including precision guided bombs under a contract signed last year. Israel is moving cautiously, and Austin Bay wonders whether Israel understands that all the technological wizardry still needs to be complimented by recon, which is what Israel is currently engaging in. That stands in contrast to the World Net Daily piece I wrote about yesterday that suggested the Israelis were surprised at the ineffectiveness of their air campaign. The truth, I believe is somewhere in the middle.

The WND story suggests that the Israelis had good intel, especially with regard to the Hizbullah bunker in Beirut. They pounded that site with 23 tons of weapons, but the bunker was too securely built for the Israelis to eliminate from the air.

That has serious ramifications for any campaign against Iran, where the Iranians have been preparing their weapons facilities, especially their nuclear research facilities, in hardened underground sites - knowing that Israel has had success in the past against Iraq's nuclear facilities at Osirak in 1981.

The primary bloggers to check with are Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, and Hot Air. Check back with them regularly for updates.

UPDATE:
Israel is apparently entering Lebanon in a big way, and has taken out tv transmission towers - why give the terrorists another outlet for their pablum? The Israelis are quick to say that this isn't an invasion.

I'm concerned that they're too concerned about how all this looks to the international audience that they're telegraphing their moves and giving Hizbullah more than ample time to shift resources and prepare for the invasion. Then again, one could make the argument that anyone caught out in the open shifting Hizbullah resources will be targeted, which is part of the strategy to degrade Hizbullah's capabilities to attack and kill Israelis.

While rocket attacks into Israel have slackened, they haven't stopped.

Evacuations to Cyprus continue, as does the humanitarian efforts to assist Lebanese trying to flee the country. Much less discussed is the fact that much of Northern Israel is shut down, hurting the Israeli economy and causing a refugee crisis of its own within Israel.

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