Saturday, February 26, 2011

Opposition Continues Consolidating Gains In Libya as Khadafi Holds On



Mumar Khadafi continues his defiant refusal to concede that he's lost control over Libya and that his country no longer wants him in power. His diplomatic corps has defected or repudiated Khadafi as a madman. The army sides with the protesters.

The only ones seemingly backing the regime are mercenaries and a core of loyalists who are more than willing to kill anyone that crosses their path. Khadafi is arming these civilian loyalists in the hopes of prolonging his regime, but the only thing that will result is prolonged chaos and turmoil.

Khadafi and his sons are living in a dream world where they think that the protests are the work of: (1) al Qaeda; (2) drugs; (3) US and the West; and not that Khadafi and his decades of brutality and failed socio-economic policies are the cause.

His sons claim that the reports of the protests are overblown and a joke, even as multiple sources indicate that the death toll is likely in the thousands.
Speaking at a news conference at the Rixos al Nasr Hotel in Tripoli, Saif al-Islam tried to play down the extent of fighting with rebels who have seized much of the country.

"Soon you will discover that what you have heard in Libya was just a big joke. A very big joke. Here in Libya we were laughing about those reports about hundreds and thousands of casualties, bombing Tripoli and Benghazi and Zawiya or whatever, about mercenaries," he said.

He went on to claim blame al-Qaida chief for the chaos in Libya.
Khadafi has refused to allow media outlets access to Tripoli, but where Khadafi's forces are no longer in control foreign journalists have confirmed that Khadafi has indeed pretty much been pushed back from the countryside and major cities to the point that only Tripoli remains in his grasp, if that.

The US has imposed sanctions all while closing its embassy and continuing efforts to help evacuate US citizens from the turmoil.

Iran Suffers Major Setback In Nuclear Ambitions

Iran has been building a nuclear reactor at Bushehr with the assistance of the Russians. It's a project that dates back more than 30 years and has been punctuated with setbacks, delays, and technical issues, to say nothing of the concerns by the US and other countries that the reactor was a cover for Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions.

The Russian deal includes taking back the spent fuel, which reduces the chances that the Iranians could divert some percentage of the nuclear materials into their weapons programs.

Iran hoped to get the reactor up and running as the reactor was fueled, but now comes word that all of the fuel will need to be removed so as to conduct additional tests and carry out modifications.
Iran will remove the fuel from the reactor of a Russian-built nuclear power plant in the southern city of Bushehr, a top official said on Saturday, citing technical advice from Moscow.

The plant, which has seen a roller-coaster ride since its construction began in the 1970s, was scheduled to generate electricity from April 9, and the latest development signals a likely delay in achieving that aim.

"Based on the recommendation of Russia, which is in charge of completing the Bushehr atomic power plant, the fuel inside the reactor core will be taken out for a while to conduct some experiments and technical work," Iran's envoy to the UN atomic watchdog, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told the ISNA news agency.

"After the experiments, it will again be installed in the core of the reactor." He did not specify when the experiments would be completed.

Iran had started loading the fuel into the plant on August 21, which Moscow at that time said was the "physical launch" of the facility.

In January, Iran's former atomic chief Ali Akbar Salehi said the plant would be ready to generate electricity on April 9 after operations began on November 27.

The decision to remove the fuel, also supplied by Russia, is the latest development in the more than three-decade old history of the plant, which was first launched by the US-backed shah using contractors from German company Siemens.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Khadafi's Deputy UN Ambassador Calls Khadafi A Madman

While the Libyan people are putting their lives on the line for the name of freedom from Mumar Khadafi's regime, his diplomatic corps are doing their darnedest to distance themselves from the regime.

The deputy UN Ambassador came out and called Khadafi a madman, and it was caught on video:



One has to wonder why he waited until now to make that declaration. He knew, or had to know what Khadafi was capable of. Anyone who has followed Khadafi knows just how insane he is.

Gov. Cuomo Announces Major Medicaid Overhaul Deal

This is tremendously good news for New Yorkers and the long term fiscal stability of the state. Gov. Andrew Cuomo and various health related groups struck a deal to revamp Medicaid financing and spending. The deal will be wrapped into the Governor's program budget, which has to be approved by the Legislature before it can be enacted:
The first-of-its-kind plan handed up by Cuomo's Medicaid Redesign Team would limit total spending on the program to $52.8 billion this year -- capping the state's share at $15.1 billion -- and allow no more than 4 percent growth each year going forward.

The proposal, which was OK'd by groups such as the state's hospital association and the health-care union 1199 SEIU, recommended a series of rate cuts, incentives and program overhauls to cut projected Medicaid spending by $2.3 billion for the next fiscal year -- as Cuomo laid out in his first budget proposal.

Proposed reforms include:

* Capping non-economic medical malpractice awards, like pain and suffering, at $250,000.

* Assigning specific providers to oversee complex cases.

* Beginning to transfer nearly all of the state's 4.5 million Medicaid enrollees to managed care from the dominant fee-for-service model.

1199 SEIU President George Gresham and Greater New York Hospital Association President Kenneth Raske, who have waged multimillion-dollar ad campaigns against previous proposals, both appeared with the governor to praise the plan.

"This certainly resulted in pain, but it was shared pain," Gresham said. "I wanted to thank the governor for the opportunity to allow working people to be part of the solution."

The deal empowers health care providers to enact their own ideas to save $640 million in Medicaid annually or face state-imposed cuts.

"This is a hard cap," Raske said. "The industry has to live with it, come up with ways to become more efficient, singularly and collectively. Otherwise, they're going to get a cut. This is a loaded weapon."

Cuomo said he'll fold the plan into his budget proposal, which lawmakers have limited power to amend. The governor called on Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D-Manhattan) and Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos (R-LI) to pass the budget before the April 1 start of the state's fiscal year.
With the SEIU backing this proposal, it will be tough for the legislature to claim that the proposal isn't supported by the unions or that it will harm the state in the long run.

Cuomo has essentially done an end run around the legislature, and the onus is now on the legislature to pass the legislation that will begin to provide structural reform to the Medicaid funding and spending formulas.

Khadafi Still Does Not Get It Even As Country Revolts Against His 40 Year Regime

After two attempts to rally his own thugs and loyalists in rambling speeches, Mumar Khadafi is now trying to bribe his way out of trouble by raising wages, increasing subsidies, and other assorted bribes.

The time to try and bribe the populace is not when pretty much the entire army has defected, tribes have sided with regime's opponents, and your loyalists have murdered the opposition en masse.

The time to do that was at the earliest stages of potential unrest.

Those efforts wont be any more successful than the violent attempts to suppress the opposition that has left hundreds, if not thousands, dead.
The New York-based Human Rights Watch has put the death toll in Libya at nearly 300, according to a partial count. Italy's Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said estimates of some 1,000 people killed were "credible." French estimates suggest some 2,000 people may have died.

Gadhafi's response to the uprising in his country has been the harshest by any Arab leader in the wave of protests that has swept the Middle East recently, toppling the presidents of Libya's neighbors Egypt and Tunisia.

In Brussels, NATO also planned to hold an emergency meeting Friday to consider the deteriorating situation in Libya. It had received no requests to intervene said it would only do so if it were given a United Nations mandate.

Khadafi's time is pretty much up, and the only one to not realize this salient fact is Khafadi and those who surround him.

His regime is pretty much in control of Tripoli, while the opposition is consolidating its control over the rest of the country.



The Obama Administration has taken a somewhat muted approach to the ongoing violence in Libya, but is consulting with France, Italy, and the UK over a course of action.
While some critics say the Obama administration has been slow to react to the deteriorating situation in Libya, the statement said Thursday's discussions were to "coordinate our urgent efforts to respond to developments and ensure that there is appropriate accountability."

"The leaders discussed the range of options that both the United States and European countries are preparing to hold the Libyan government accountable for its actions, as well as planning for humanitarian assistance," the White House statement said.

U.S. officials have said all options were under consideration, including sanctions and enforcement of a no-fly zone, to try to stop the Libyan government from attacking protesters.

A statement by the French Embassy said Obama discussed steps the United States plans to take regarding Libya in his phone call with Sarkozy.
Calls for arms embargoes and no-fly zones wont do much to quell the violence, as Khadafi's loyalists are more than capable of unleashing a bloodbath without additional arms shipments. The Libyan air force isn't reliable, particularly after several pilots have defected or deliberately crashed their planes rather than fire on the crowds.

UPDATE:
Al Jazeera is once again reporting that Khadafi loyalists have opened fire on protesters killing at least six people in Tripoli. Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets throughout the country to demonstrate against Khadafi. Those protesting in Tripoli are in grave danger considering that the city is Khadafi's last bastion.

UPDATE:
Via BBC, there are reports that one of the military airbases near Tripoli from which aircraft took off that strafed crowds has now fallen to the opposition:
#
1457: The Guardian correspondent Martin Chulov tweets from Benghazi: "The Mitiga air base is confirmed to have fallen in Tripoli. #Libya. #Ghaddafi. Planes that strafed citizens took off from here."
UPDATE:
Khadafi was again out addressing his supporters, and claimed that he would arm his loyalists to go and kill those opposed to his regime. He's still convinced that the uprising is part of a foreign conspiracy and continues to think that the West, or al Qaeda, or drugs are behind the threat to his regime.
"We can defeat any aggression if necessary and arm the people," Gaddafi said, in footage that was aired on Libyan state television on Friday.

"I am in the middle of the people.. we will fight … we will defeat them if they want … we will defeat any foreign aggression.
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"Dance … sing and get ready … this is the spirit … this is much better than the lies of the Arab propaganda," he said.

The speech, which also referred to Libya's war of independence with Italy, appeared to be aimed at rallying what remains of his support base, with specific reference to the country's youth.

His last speech, on Thursday evening had been made by phone, leading to speculation about his physical condition.

The footage aired on Friday, however, showed the leader standing above the square, waving his fist as he spoke.
No one knows for sure just how many of his supporters are out there, but there's more tangible evidence that he's brought in mercenaries to do his dirty work.

Khadafi and his son are going to get their wish if they keep up with their dead-end strategy:
Muammar Gaddafi has appeared in Tripoli's Green Square to address supporters. The embattled Libyan leader told the crowds: "We will continue to fight. We will defeat them. We will die here on Libyan soil." (See 4.54pm.) Earlier Gaddafi's son Saif vowed his family will "live and die in Libya".

• The entire Libyan mission to the UN in Geneva has quit, its second secretary calling for a moment of silence to "honour this revolution" (see 3.32pm). Most of Libya's delegation to the UN in New York had already abandoned the regime. The Libyan delegation to the Arab League in Cairo has renounced Gaddafi and condemned his attack on "unarmed citizens" (see 3.41pm). Libya's ambassadors to France and Unesco quit and condemned the violence. Prosecutor-general Abdul-Rahman al-Abbar became the latest senior official to resign and join the opposition.

• There are reports of troops firing on protesters in Tripoli (see 4.11pm and 4pm).
UPDATE:
This is a pretty fascinating (and frightening) report about an interview given by one of Khadafi's sons who happens to have been educated in London. The son, when asked if his father and the regime have a plan B if he's ousted, notes:
"We have Plan A, Plan B and Plan C. Plan A is to live and die in Libya, Plan B is to live and die in Libya, Plan C is to live and die in Libya."

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Carnage Continues In Libya as Khadafi Hangs On

The carnage continues in Libya as Mumar Khadafi barely manages to hold on to power by any means necessary. That includes the use of mercenaries and a small cadre of loyalists, but those numbers are going to be insufficient to do anything more than delay the inevitable and to rack up a body count.

So, where exactly did Khadafi get a hold of these mercenaries? Well, it helps when Khadafi has been bankrolling thugs and dictators across Africa, and is able to get some payback, along with tapping a bloc of thugs who are looking for work.
Al Jazeera has reported that advertisements have been appearing in Guinea and Nigeria offering would-be mercenaries up to $2,000 to come to Qaddafi's aid. The reports are vague so far, but if the Libyan strongman has indeed been shopping for mercenaries, West Africa would be a good place to start. Recent conflicts in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and the Ivory Coast have generated a steady supply of unemployed ex-fighters willing to move from conflict to conflict for the right price. Foreign mercenaries, often paid in diamonds, kept Sierra Leone's brutal civil war going for years. U.N. peacekeepers have reported that the electorally ousted but defiant Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo has brought in mercenaries from Liberia to aid him in his conflict against internationally recognized President Alassane Ouattara.

Libyan money has helped prop up a number of unstable African regimes in recent years -- for example, Qaddafi was a longtime, enthusiastic backer of former Liberian President Charles Taylor, now on trial in The Hague for war crimes -- so it makes sense that Libyan officials would have connections in the region. As of yet, there's no reliable reporting of how or when the mercenaries there, but some Libyan activists believe that they may have been housed at training camps in southern Libya for months, anticipating an uprising.

Following tomorrow's prayers, expect that the situation in Tripoli to get a whole lot more dangerous as there are rumblings of renewed protests in the last redoubt for Khafadi and his supporters all while Khadafi's forces are being hemmed in on all sides.

A last gasp desperate measures could seriously inflate the body count, particularly if Khadafi decides to unleash some measure of his chemical weapons stocks. I don't think he'd go that route, but a bloody outcome is all but assured.

The Rebuilding of Ground Zero, Part 128

Is it surprising to anyone that the costs for various parts of the Ground Zero rebuilding continue to exceed estimates? The latest part to see cost overruns is the Santiago Calatrava's PATH transit hub. The price tag has gone up another $220 million, to $3.4 billion.

As it was originally proposed, the project would be $2.2 billion. The price tag was estimated at $3.2 billion in 2008, and an effort to control costs included reworking certain parts of the design, including the use of Vierendeel trusses to maintain an open feel to certain parts of the hub.

The cost increases were attributed to higher costs for steel installation and contracts to do that work.

Meanwhile, the National 9/11 Memorial Museum has launched an online timeline showing events from 9/11 in real time, from the moment that the 19 terrorists went through screening at the airports until President Bush's speech to the nation that evening.
The National September 11th Memorial Museum has launched an online timeline, using graphic video from the attacks on the World Trade Center.

The site features video of the towers collapsing, as well as recordings of victims' final phone calls and oral histories of survivors.

Museum curators hope the site helps people understand how the events of 9/11 unfolded, through the eyes of those who were involved.

"The main purpose of doing this is for people who want to learn about 9/11. To take a very chaotic day, make some sense of it, understand the key points in time and some of the stories behind it," said National 9/11 Memorial & Museum President Joe Daniels.

"It gives you a real deeply textured sense of what that person saw, thought, heard or felt, whether it's a first responder or a survivor," said National 9/11 Memorial & Museum Curator Amy Weinstein.

Nebraska GOPer Submits Expansive Justified Homicide Bill Targeting Abortion Providers

Just days after South Dakota Republicans shelved a bid to target abortion providers by inserting a justified homicide provision into a bill, Nebraska Republicans have turned it up a notch by submitting a bill that would allow third parties to use a justified homicide defense should they engage in the murder of abortion providers.

The text of this bill would put abortion providers at an increased risk of being killed by anti-abortion thugs who have been trying for years to use a justified homicide tact in defending their attacks on those providers.

The bill defines unborn child as being a protected under the justified homicide statute under any stage of development, whether it is in embryo stage or as a fetus, and allows anyone to use the justified homicide defense to defend the life of the unborn child.

It would tangentially affect the use of embryos for stem cell research as well

Saudi National Studying In Texas College Arrested On Bomb Charges

US authorities have arrested a 20-year old Saudi national who was studying at a college in Texas on charges of plotting to build a bomb and to use it in an attack on former President George W. Bush.

Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari, who was born in Saudi Arabia, came to the United States in 2008 on a student visa to attend South Plains College in Levelland, just outside Lubbock Texas. He is accused of trying to obtain parts and chemicals to build a bomb and to attack former President Bush.
The affidavit alleges that on Feb. 1, 2011, a chemical supplier reported to the FBI a suspicious attempted purchase of concentrated phenol by a man identifying himself as Khalid Aldawsari. According to the affidavit, phenol is a toxic chemical with legitimate uses, but can also be used to make the explosive trinitrophenol, also known as T.N.P., or picric acid. The affidavit alleges that other ingredients typically used with phenol to make picric acid, or T.N.P., are concentrated sulfuric and nitric acids.

Aldawsari allegedly attempted to have the phenol order shipped to a freight company so it could be held for him there, but the freight company returned the order to the supplier and called the police. Later, Aldawsari falsely told the supplier he was associated with a university and wanted the phenol for "off-campus, personal research." Frustrated by questions being asked over his phenol order, Aldawsari cancelled his order and later e-mailed himself instructions for producing phenol. The affidavit alleges that in December 2010, he successfully purchased concentrated nitric and sulfuric acids.

According to the affidavit, legally authorized electronic surveillance revealed that Aldawsari used various e-mail accounts in researching explosives and targets, and often sent emails to himself as part of this process. On Feb. 11, 2011, for instance, he allegedly e-mailed himself a recipe for picric acid, which the e-mail describes as a "military explosive." He also allegedly sent himself an e-mail on Oct. 19, 2010 that contained information on the material required for Nitro Urea, how to prepare it, and the advantages of using it.

The affidavit alleges that Aldawsari also e-mailed himself instructions on how to convert a cellular phone into a remote detonator and how to prepare a booby-trapped vehicle using items available in every home. One e-mail allegedly contained a message stating that "one operation in the land of the infidels is equal to ten operations against occupying forces in the land of the Muslims." During December 2010 and January 2011, Aldawsari allegedly purchased many other items, including a gas mask, a Hazmat suit, a soldering iron kit, glass beakers and flasks, wiring, a stun gun, clocks and a battery tester.

Searches of Aldawsari's Residence

Two legally authorized searches of Aldawsari's apartment conducted by the FBI in February 2011 indicated that the concentrated sulfuric and nitric acids; the beakers and flasks; wiring; Hazmat suit; and clocks were present in Aldawsari's residence.
He also apparently put together a list of targets, and emailed himself details about former President Bush's home in Dallas, Texas.

UPDATE:
It's possible that depending on how the chemicals sought were used - or used in combination with other chemicals, that the result could be a WMD.
The The federal crime for use of a WMD is here , and WMD has a specific definition under the US Code, which includes destructive devices under Sec. 921(4).
4) The term “destructive device” means—
(A) any explosive, incendiary, or poison gas—
(i) bomb,
(ii) grenade,
(iii) rocket having a propellant charge of more than four ounces,
(iv) missile having an explosive or incendiary charge of more than one-quarter ounce,
(v) mine, or
(vi) device similar to any of the devices described in the preceding clauses;
(B) any type of weapon (other than a shotgun or a shotgun shell which the Attorney General finds is generally recognized as particularly suitable for sporting purposes) by whatever name known which will, or which may be readily converted to, expel a projectile by the action of an explosive or other propellant, and which has any barrel with a bore of more than one-half inch in diameter; and
(C) any combination of parts either designed or intended for use in converting any device into any destructive device described in subparagraph (A) or (B) and from which a destructive device may be readily assembled.
The term “destructive device” shall not include any device which is neither designed nor redesigned for use as a weapon; any device, although originally designed for use as a weapon, which is redesigned for use as a signaling, pyrotechnic, line throwing, safety, or similar device; surplus ordnance sold, loaned, or given by the Secretary of the Army pursuant to the provisions of section 4684 (2), 4685, or 4686 of title 10; or any other device which the Attorney General finds is not likely to be used as a weapon, is an antique, or is a rifle which the owner intends to use solely for sporting, recreational or cultural purposes.
Thus, it includes items commonly referred to as WMD (nuclear, chemical, biological), or any bomb, explosive device, incendiary, or rockets, missiles, etc. that fall under the definition. It's pretty wide-ranging and inclusive (on purpose).

Syria Operating Another Uranium Processing Plant Near Damascus?

Syria is playing a real dangerous game with international inspectors and Israel. The country is trying to stay a step ahead of both the IAEA and Israel while it attempts to establish a nuclear processing capability.
Syria is suspected of harboring a uranium conversion reactor near the town of Marj as Sultan, near Damascus, according to a publication released Wednesday by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security based on reports by the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

The facility is related to the nuclear reactor project at al Kibar that was bombed by Israel in September 2007, and it was reportedly used for processing uranium, according to the report.

The report said the facility's operational status is still unknown, but Syria is suspected of clearing out the buildings before mid-2008 in efforts to disguise previous activities conducted at the site.

Syria has continued to refuse requests by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect the Marj as Sultan facility, as well as other sites that may be related to the nuclear reactor project, the report said.

Satellite images of the site near Marj as Sultan, obtained by the ISIS, reveal that on July 25, 2008, there was considerable activity involving the pouring of material on the ground as well as trucks and other vehicles that could have been related to the operation.
It doesn't appear to be a large scale operation, but it could be a signal that Syria was attempting to carry out a distributed enrichment program that was more difficult to attack in one fell swoop. ISIS reports that there were three related facilities, and this one near Damascus is included in that number.

Israel carried out airstrikes against a purported nuclear facility in Syria in 2007, and the Syrians didn't muster much of a response diplomatically, which suggested that the Syrians didn't want to bring any more attention to their nuclear ambitions and capabilities.

The problem for inspectors is that to an untrained eye, the buildings and structures would appear to be nondescript commercial buildings and endeavors. That's the problem for inspectors - Syria is trying to hide their program in plain sight, and using these kinds of structures to deflect attention and prying eyes in the sky.

Violence Continues In Libya As Khadafi Attempts To Squash Insurrection

So, what exactly is going on in Libya now? What started out as protests has turned into what can be described as a civil war or insurrection against Mumar Khadafi's regime. Khadafi's grip on Libya is severely constrained as the army continues to side with the opposition and his loyalists are largely holding on to Tripoli.

Yet, Khadafi is attempting to sow seeds of violence and discord by firing on civilians, including those that sought refuge in mosques.
An army unit and militiamen loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi blasted a mosque with antiaircraft missiles and automatic weapons Thursday, targeting protesters who had holed up inside. The attack, which occurred just 30 miles from Tripoli, comes as Qaddafi finds himself increasingly squeezed by antiregime forces and isolated internationally for his brutal attempts to hold on to power.

Protesters inside the mosque “suffered heavy casualties,” though estimates for numbers killed were not available from witnesses, the Associated Press reports.

The attack was reportedly carried out by a legion of mercenaries and Qaddafi's personal security forces. The New York Times describes the mercenary brigade fighting with an increasingly isolated Qaddafi, who may have even been deserted by parts of the Libyan armed forces at this point:

Distrustful of even his own generals, Colonel Qaddafi has for years quietly built up this ruthless and loyal force. It is made up of special brigades headed by his sons, segments of the military loyal to his native tribe and its allies, and legions of African mercenaries he has helped train and equip. Many are believed to have fought elsewhere, in places like Sudan, but he has now called them back.
Opposition groups now hold much of the country outside Tripoli, including oil fields, refineries, and cities.

The fighting has spread westward towards Tunisia, as opposition groups consolidate their control over Tobruk and eastern Libya.

There's concern that with foreigners fleeing the country that Khadafi may engage in an even more violent crackdown against the opposition. I'm not so sure that Khadafi is in a position to carry out that kind of violence outside of Tripoli and he's being further constrained on a daily basis as his thugs and mercenaries are pushed back.

UPDATE:
Those fleeing Libya are fortunate enough to be escaping the violence. Egyptians that have fled have called the situation a bloodbath, and that supports contentions that hundreds, if not thousands have already died.

UPDATE:
Another sign that Khadafi isn't all there? He's claiming that al Qaeda is behind the uprising against his regime by drugging people's Nescafe in his latest speech given a day after his last rambling speech blaming external groups/forces for the uprising.
Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi on Thursday blamed the uprising in his country on al-Qaida followers who give young Libyans hallucinogenic pills in their coffee to get them to revolt.

In a rambling phone call to Libyan state TV, Gadhafi said those revolting are "loyal to bin Laden ... This is al-Qaida that the whole world is fighting." Al-Qaida militants are "exploiting" teenagers, giving them "hallucinogenic pills in their coffee with milk, like Nescafe," the embattled leader said.
Nescafe? People still drink that?

Sadly, the only person who appears to be utilizing hallucinogenic pills is Khadafi, who is still under the impression that people want him to remain in power, and he's going to hang around well past his expiration date.

UPDATE:


This video shows the border crossing between Libya and Tunisia and Tunisians trying to help Libyans escape the bloodbath:



Three Egyptians are confirmed killed
in Libya as a result on Khadafi's ongoing crackdown. 25,000 Egyptians have fled Libya since Khadafi's crackdown began.

UPDATE:
Rumors began circulating among oil traders earlier today that Khadafi was shot and killed. There's no evidence Khadafi's dead, but that didn't stop traders from sharply selling off oil futures today.

I'd say that was wishful thinking - and Khadafi's end can't come soon enough.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Khadafi Moves To Destroy Libya If He Can't Control It

After giving a rambling speech yesterday in which he swore to destroy the opposition to his regime and that he would fight to the last drop of blood in his body, the reports today once again exhibit just how tyranical Mumar Khadafi is.
Witnesses in the Libyan capital Tripoli say many streets were deserted Wednesday, with residents afraid to leave their homes, a day after Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi urged his supporters to attack anti-government demonstrators.

The witnesses told foreign news agencies that armed Gadhafi loyalists and mercenaries from other African nations were roaming the capital, threatening people who gather in groups and occasionally opening fire.

In Gadhafi's first televised address since an uprising against his rule began last week, he vowed to stay in power and called on supporters to fight back against opposition protesters whom he described as "gangs" and "terrorists." He threatened death for anyone who takes up arms against Libya or engages in espionage.

But, there were more signs that the Libyan leader has lost control of the eastern half of his country to protesters backed by defecting military units. Witnesses in the eastern cities of Benghazi and Tobruk say residents were in control of the streets Tuesday and celebrating their defeat of Gadhafi's forces. Benghazi residents also formed units to collect weapons and protect property.

Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said there are credible reports that about 1,000 people have been killed in Libya's week-long uprising. He also confirmed that the eastern half of Libya, known as Cyrenaica, was no longer under Gadhafi's control.

The city of Tobruk is in the hands of the anti-Khadafi forces.



So, what is driving Khadafi to engage in what is essentially a scorched earth policy? Well, it's the same thing that drives all autocrats and totalitarian regimes around the world - he wants to remain in power and wants to eliminate any signs of opposition to his regime. He surrounds himself with sycophants and people who are going to oblige his every whim, regardless of the facts on the ground. Add a culture of corruption and a cult of personality, and Khadafi's erratic actions begin to make sense.

One has to wonder whether the military will finally step in against Khadafi's loyalists and end the violent suppression of the opposition in Tripoli - ending Khadafi's regime once and for all.

Libya's regime continues to blame outside forces for the ongoing events in the country - blaming everyone from the US to al Jazeera.

Tripoli is essentially cut off from the rest of Libya, and the rest of the world for that matter. The regime is desperate to hold on to its power base, but the rest of the country is slipping from Khadafi's grasp.

Libyans and foreign nationals are trying to flee the country any way they can. They're crossing into Tunisia and Egypt by the thousands, and the US is arranging for charter boats to take US citizens to Malta.

Via the BBC, 1440: France is coming out with increasingly strong statements on Libya. Foreign affairs minister Laurent Wauquiez says the president wants France to suspend all its trade, economic and financial relations with Tripoli, adding:"To be clear, we shall not let what is happening in Libya take place with impunity."

As that goes on, the number of defections from the Libyan government continues growing. The ranks of those defecting from Khadafi's grasp include foreign diplomats, generals, ministers, and even entire army units.

UPDATE:
There are reports that a military fighter jet crashed after refusing to open fire on protesters. It's possible that the aircraft suffered a mechanical failure - there are reports that Khadafi purposefully kept the military underequipped and underfunded compared to his elite personal guard so that the army wouldn't be so much of a threat to his regime.

Or, the pilot and crew decided that it was better to sacrifice themselves rather than kill civilian protesters - and deny the regime the use of another aircraft (perhaps there wasn't sufficient fuel to leave Libyan airspace) - and the regime was purposefully limiting fuel on those planes to avoid further defections. Another possibility is that elements loyal to Khadafi shot down the aircraft that refused to open fire on the protests. New reports seem to indicate that the pilots bailed out of the planes rather than fire upon the crowds.

At the same time, reports indicate that anti-Khadafi forces are closing the noose around Tripoli.

You know things are real bad for Khadafi when none other than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says that Khadafi's crackdown is too harsh and violent. Of course, Iran has violently suppressed its own protests - both last year, and new protests that erupted in the wake (and support) of the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia.
Press TV, Iran's state-financed satellite channel, reported on Wednesday that "Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has criticized Libyan rule Muammar Qaddafi, for threatening his own people. Ahmadinejad referred to universal human rights, saying leaders should hear the voice of their people. He went on to say resistance against the demands of a nation is futile."

According to Iran's Fars news agency, which is close to the country's powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mr. Ahmadinejad also offered this advice to the leaders of Arab nations experiencing unrest: "Serve your people and stand beside the people so that people do not revolt against you."

In response to protests in Iran last week, Mr. Ahmadinejad's government used force to suppress dissent, leading to the death of at least two protesters.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Gov. Christie Issues Budget Declarations

New Jersey governor Chris Christie issued his annual budget message, and noted the seriousness of the pension and benefits mess that Christie has inherited and the need to overhaul the budget process.

The upcoming budget is going to be the same size as last year's budget in actual dollars, which means that the challenge will be to deal with higher costs (such as from pensions and health care) without squeezing out vital and necessary programs).

One change sure to raise eyebrows is to shift Medicaid recipients into a managed care arrangement that would save the state an estimated $300 million per year.

New Jersey's unfunded pension obligations are a crushing burden on the state in years to come, and while Christie has called for a payment should his agenda be passed, that's just the down payment on a real need to restructure the pension system in New Jersey for the public sector to bring it in line with the private sector.

While some people will claim that this is an assault on the middle class and unions, who exactly is getting hammered by out of control taxes? That would be the same middle class - getting squeezed by built-in COLAs and political deals that are simply no longer affordable and are based on assumptions that are no longer relevant.

Raising retirement ages would make sense since people are living longer and pensions would be drawn for years (or decades) longer than they were a generation ago. New workers should be entitled to 401(k) and comparable private sector benefits and all workers should be expected to put in comparable shares of health care benefits that are in line with the private sector. Rationalizing the state's benefits will help reduce ongoing structural deficits with the budget and prevent the need for massive tax hikes going forward to balance the state's budget and obligations.

On the tax front, Christie proposed a $2.5 billion tax relief and incentive program for the next 5-year period
We will double our State Research and Development Tax credit to encourage High Tech and Bio-Tech entrepreneurs to create their next great discovery, and the jobs that go with it, right here in New Jersey.

We will allow loss-netting and loss carry-forward relief, to be phased in over five years. Our current policy of restricting loss carry-forwards hurts small business, hurts entrepreneurship, and hurts New Jersey.

We will stop penalizing our corporations for adding jobs and investing in New Jersey by joining 28 other states in using a single sales factor;

We will cut the minimum S-corporation business tax by 25%. Again, this will make us more competitive in the region and encourage small businesses and entrepreneurs; and

We will exempt from the sales and use tax installation and support of electronically delivered business software. Taxing such software is a burden on high tech innovation;

The death tax in New Jersey is too high and too burdensome on small businesses and the middle class. We must begin to reform it. Only three states have both an inheritance tax and a death tax, and New Jersey is one of them. My budget would provide a first step in relief by raising the death tax exemption for families and small businesses. Again, this will put us more in line with other States in the region.
The corporate tax changes would bring New Jersey in line with other states and improve the state's competitive edge compared with other states. It would also simplify some tax accounting procedures.

UPDATE:
The NJ Division of Taxes publishes annual statistics on income (last reported year was tax year 2008). It's rather eye-opening when it comes to personal income taxes in New Jersey and just who exactly is shouldering the burden of taxes.

If you think that the rich aren't paying their fair share, the report might disabuse you of that notion as 1.2% of state taxpayers are paying 21.5% of the state's revenues from the personal income tax. The flip side is that you might think that isn't sufficiently high enough, even though that when you rely on so few people for such a large percentage of your income a shock to that particular income group will cause revenues to bounce around significantly (just look at New York and its revenue roller coaster from Wall Street sources).

Those taxpayers who fall squarely within the middle class in New Jersey - say those making $35,000 to $150,000 (table 1.4 and forward), are shouldering the bulk of the tax burden in the state (which is supposed to be directed to property tax relief as the statute was originally implemented in the 1970s). Since dealing with legacy costs like health care and pensions would reduce the need for still higher taxes, this would result in a long-term tax relief for the middle class.

The Death Throes of the Khadafi Regime

Mumar Khadafi is trying to hold on to power for as long as he possibly can, and his security forces are using deadly force to try and retain power even as his own diplomats overseas are repudiating his regime and tribes that operate in much of the country outside Tripoli are also taking matters into their own hands. Even Libya's diplomatic mission to the UN has repudiated the regime.



Egyptians tell of harrowing tales of trying to escape from Libya. Thousands are fleeing the country.

The UN Security Council is holding an emergency meeting over the situation in Libya and the EU has also weighed in:



The deadly uprising and likelihood of a civil war or protracted insurrection has roiled the stock markets and oil prices.

Meanwhile, the addled Fidel Castro thinks that the Libyan uprising is a pretext for a US invasion.
Cuba's former leader Fidel Castro says it's too early to criticize Libya's government - but just the moment to denounce something says is planned: A U.S.-led invasion of the North African nation.

Castro uses a column published in Cuban media on Tuesday to accuse the United States of planning a NATO invasion of Libya to control its oil. He says that might happen "in a question of hours or very short days."

He says the plan "has to be denounced."
It would be much easier for the US to invade Bahrain and the UAE, where oil reserves are even greater - and where US forces already have a significant presence (CENTCOM headquarters, fleet bases, prepositioned stores, etc.), and where protests against the Bahraini regime have also been met with a violent crackdown.

What Castro himself should realize that his own regime is on the chopping block if the Cuban opposition gets its own act together and pushes Castro and his brother to the curb for more than 50 years or ruinous sociopolitical doctrine.

Many of the issues that ignited the protests throughout North Africa and the Middle East are worrisome to people around the world, including in failed states, autocratic and kleptocratic regimes such as Cuba. A lack of socioeconomic opportunities, free speech, and repressive regimes has led to uprisings for improved social and economic opportunities and demands for reforms.

UPDATE:
Who's exactly sticking their necks out for Khadafi? This report indicates that it isn't the army, or the general population but rather hired thugs and mercenaries who Khadafi imported to quell the insurrection against his regime. Khadafi has done whatever he can to sustain his regime, even undermanning and curtailing his regular army so that he can maintain a smaller cadre of professional thugs to deal with potential uprisings.
Another reason Gadhafi may have opted to use foreign mercenaries against his people is because he understands his army's weaknesses -- precisely because he created them.

The last time Libya's armed forces fought any major war was in 1987 in Chad. Thousands of Libyans were killed, and the conflict taught Gadhafi an important lesson: that his armed forces might not be up to snuff. After that he established separate security brigades to protect his regime, apart from the regular army. They're elite paramilitary forces, smaller in number than the Libyan army, but thought to be fiercely loyal to Gadhafi.

The infamously paranoid Libyan leader has also long feared a military coup -- the same type that brought him to power in 1969. So he has intentionally kept his own army understaffed and under-equipped, according to Charles Gurdon, a Libya expert who runs Menas Associates, a political risk consultancy in London.

"They did not have modern weapons and they didn't even have ammunition for a number of years," Gurdon told AOL News. "On the other hand, there are security brigades designed to fight against the army if necessary, and to protect the regime."

Ruthless and devoutly loyal to Gadhafi, it's those security brigades that Gurdon believes are attacking unarmed protesters in Libya's main squares, perhaps with the help of foreigners. Most of the Libyan leader's sons have their own security brigades as well.
UPDATE:
Khadafi just got himself fatwa'd by an influential Muslim Brotherhood cleric.
Influential Muslim cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi has issued a fatwa that any Libyan soldier who can shoot dead embattled leader Muammar Gaddafi should do so 'to rid Libya of him.'

'Whoever in the Libyan army is able to shoot a bullet at Mr Gaddafi should do so,' Qaradawi, an Egyptian-born cleric who is usually based in Qatar, told Al-Jazeera television.

He also told Libyan soldiers 'not to obey orders to strike at your own people,' and urged Libyan ambassadors around the world to dissociate themselves from Gaddafi's regime.

Famous in the Middle East for his at times controversial fatwas, or religious edicts, the octogenarian Qaradawi has celebrity status in the Arab world thanks to his religious broadcasts on Al-Jazeera.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Khadafi on the Ropes

A sure sign that a regime is on the ropes is that the ruling thug farms out the press duties to someone else. In Mumar Khadafi's case, he's given his son a higher profile in handling the ongoing crisis and existential threat to his 40+ year rule.

While there are rumors that Khadafi has already fled the country, I'd say that for the moment his regime is definitely on the ropes.

The tribes that make up the majority of the country's population are starting to line up in opposition to Khadafi and there are reports that Khadafi has left the capitol of Tripoli in favor of a more remote location in the country.
#
1310: Prof Aref Ali Nayed, one of Libya's most senior religious leaders and a member of one of the major tribes in Libya, the Warfla tribe, has told the BBC World Service he now expects the tribes will stand united against the government of Col Gaddafi in this crisis: "All the great tribes of Libya are united. The only thing that divided them was Gaddafi and his regime. A united Libya is a reality that is alive in our blood. That is why you see people in Tripoli taking to the streets without anything in their hands to be shot dead for the sake of their brothers and sisters in the east."
#
1308: Our correspondent adds: "Hour by hour there are reports of more defections. Almost all major tribal leaders seem to have joined the opposition, as well as important religious leaders, and several senior Libyan ambassadors. The east of the country is already almost entirely out of the hands of the government."
Hundreds of people have been killed in the protests, and the government crackdown.



Khadafi's son is vowing to fight to the last bullet, which is all but assuring a violent end to the Khadafi regime.

Government buildings are aflame in Tripoli and the violence is spreading like waves through the country.
The six-day-old uprising had reached the capital, Tripoli, where government buildings on Monday were in flames and police were noticeably absent from the streets. There were signs of growing disunity within the government and reports that several senior officials had resigned and joined the protesters.

In a rambling, disjointed address delivered about 1 a.m. on Monday, the son, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, played down the uprising sweeping the country, which witnesses and rights activists say has left more than 220 people dead and hundreds wounded from gunfire by security forces. He repeated several times that “Libya is not Tunisia or Egypt” — the neighbors to the east and west that both overthrew their veteran autocrats in the space of the last six weeks

The revolt shaking Libya is the latest and most violent turn in the rebellion across the Arab world that seemed unthinkable just two months ago and now poses the greatest threat in four decades to Colonel Qaddafi’s autocratic power. The United States condemned the Qaddafi government’s lethal use of force.

Witnesses in Tripoli interviewed by telephone on Monday said protesters had converged on the capital’s central Green Square and clashed with heavily armed riot police for several hours after Mr. Qaddafi’s speech, apparently enraged by it. Young men armed themselves with chains around their knuckles, steel pipes and machetes, as well as police batons, helmets and rifles commandeered from riot squads. Security forces moved in, shooting randomly.
UPDATE:
Things are going downhill at an accelerating rate. While there are report that the Libyan air force has opened fire on the protesters, although two fighter jets and two helicopters sought asylum in Malta.
"I am in Tripoli and not in Venezuela," he said, according to Al Arabiya television.

Gadhafi spoke hours after reports that Libyan military aircraft fired live ammunition at crowds of anti-government protesters in Tripoli on Monday.

"What we are witnessing today is unimaginable," Adel Mohamed Saleh, an activist in the capital, told Al Jazeera television. His accounts could not be independently confirmed. "Warplanes and helicopters are indiscriminately bombing one area after another. There are many, many dead.

"Our people are dying. It is the policy of scorched earth," he said.

Another man, identified only as “Victory,” told msnbc.com after touring Tripoli, “We could hear firing every 15 minutes, I don’t know from where really.”

The accounts came as deep cracks opened in Gadhafi's regime, with diplomats abroad and the justice minister at home resigning, air force pilots defecting and a fire raging at the main government hall after the clashes in the capital Tripoli. Protesters called for another night of defiance in Tripoli's main square despite the government's heavy crackdown.

Arabiya television said the Tripoli clashes Monday left 160 dead.

Human Rights Watch said Monday that at least 233 people had been killed since the protests began last week, but opposition groups put the figure much higher. Most fatalities were in Benghazi, a region where Gadhafi's grip has always been weaker than elsewhere in the oil-producing desert nation.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Chinese Government Moves To Quash Protests Before They Gain Steam

The Chinese government is looking at events in the Middle East and North Africa with a wary eye to the more than 1 billion Chinese who might protest with similar aims.
Jittery Chinese authorities wary of any domestic dissent staged a concerted show of force Sunday to squelch a mysterious online call for a "Jasmine Revolution" apparently modeled after pro-democracy demonstrations sweeping the Middle East.

Authorities detained activists, increased the number of police on the streets, disconnected some mobile phone text messaging services and censored Internet postings about the call to stage protests at 2 p.m. in Beijing, Shanghai and 11 other major cities.

The campaign did not gain much traction among ordinary citizens and the chances of overthrowing the Communist government are slim, considering Beijing's tight controls over the media and Internet. A student-led, pro-democracy movement in 1989 was crushed by the military and hundreds, perhaps thousands, were killed.

On Sunday, police took at least three people away in Beijing, one of whom tried to lay down white jasmine flowers while hundreds of people milled about the protest gathering spot, outside a McDonald's on the capital's busiest shopping street. In Shanghai, police led away three people near the planned protest spot after they scuffled in an apparent bid to grab the attention of passers-by.
It's quite telling that the Chinese government is moving with such speed to thwart protests from congealing into a movement that is far more difficult to control and that would threaten the government's existence.

Death Toll Rises In Libya as Regimes Continue Crackdowns Against Protests

It's believed that at least 200 people have been killed in Libya by Mumar Khadafi's security forces. The protesters have been rallying against Khadafi's failed 40+ year rule over the country, and comes amidst revolutions in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt.
Moammar Gadhafi's forces have opened fire on mourners at the funeral for anti-government protesters in the city of Benghazi, where a doctor says at least 200 people have already been slain in days of demonstrations.

A man shot in the leg Sunday said marchers were bearing coffins to a cemetery when they passed a Gadhafi compound in Libya's second-largest city. The man said security forces fired in the air and then opened up on the crowd.

A hospital official says four people have been wounded, two seriously.

The doctor in Benghazi, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he fears reprisal, said his hospital is out of supplies and cannot treat more than 70 wounded who were hit in the attacks and need attention.

"I am crying," the doctor said. "Why is the world not listening?"

Witnesses told The Associated Press a mixture of special commandos, foreign mercenaries and Gadhafi loyalists went after demonstrators on Saturday with knives, assault rifles and heavy-calibre weapons.
Protesters were again attacked in Yemen as well, as the Yemeni regime attempted to break the protests there as well.



There are ongoing demonstrations in Bahrain as well. The situation there remains dangerous but the security forces have backed off for the moment.
In Bahrain, thousands of jubilant opposition protesters moved back into Pearl Square in the capital, Manama, Saturday, setting up a tent camp after the Gulf state's minority Sunni rulers ordered police and army forces to withdraw.

Bahrain's ruling al-Khalifa family also offered to open a dialogue with the majority Shi'ite-led opposition, which has demanded democratic reforms to strip the constitutional monarchy of its powers to fill key government posts.
UPDATE:
It looks like a full scale insurrection is going on in Libya, as opponents to the regime took a car packed with explosives and drove it into a military camp to blow it up; security forces then opened fire on the protesters.
Protests in Benghazi, Libya, escalated Sunday, as protesters packed at least one car with explosives and sent it crashing into a compound wall at the Alfadeel Abu-Omar military camp, witnesses said.

Security forces then fired on protesters as they attempted to breach the camp, the witnesses said.

Earlier, thousands of mourners, some carrying coffins above their heads, crowded into the streets of Benghazi.

The crowds walked as part of a funeral for several people killed in clashes that began Saturday afternoon between civilians and security forces loyal to Gadhafi, eyewitnesses told CNN.

Clashes disrupted the funeral processions on Sunday as mourners walked toward the city's main cemetery, witnesses said. The route used by them passes by police headquarters and the Alfadeel Abu-Omar military camp.

One man, who was in the procession, said a uniformed battalion opened fire on the mourners. Some people were killed, he said, but did not give a number.
UPDATE:
Numerous reports indicate that the death toll continues rising, but there are also reports that elements of the Libyan military have defected from Khadafi, particularly in Benghazi. Clashes have now broken out in Tripoli.

Khadafi's son warns that the regime will restore calm at any price, which means that the bloodshed will only increase significantly.
Libya's army has been told to restore security "at any price" and will remain loyal to longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi, Gadhafi's son told Libyans in a televised address early Monday.

[Updated: 1:30 a.m. Monday, Libya; 6:30 p.m. Sunday ET]: The son of longtime Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi early Monday promised widespread reforms, including increased salaries and a relaxed criminal code, in an attempt to head off a growing revolt.

[Updated: 1:19 a.m. Monday, Libya; 6:19 p.m. Sunday ET]: The son of Moammar Gadhafi warned early Monday that the country faced "civil war" and a breakup of the nation if protesters go on.

[Updated: 1:09 a.m. Monday, Libya; 6:09 p.m. Sunday ET]: The son of Moammar Gadhafi said early Monday that a "great sedition" was under way in Benghazi, the country's second-largest city, but said the death toll was smaller than what is being reported by international news outlets.