Saturday, January 07, 2006

Scratch That

Tom DeLay is stepping down as majority leader permanently and will not seek to resume that position. He sent a letter to Rep. Denny Hastert explaining the situation.
Dear Mr. Speaker,

I am writing to inform you of my decision to permanently step aside as majority leader, and of my belief that the best interests of the conference would be served by the election of a new leader as soon as possible.

The job of majority leader and the mandate of the Republican majority are too important to be hamstrung, even for a few months, by personal distractions.

I will continue to serve my constituents and seek re-election to a 12th term representing Texas’ 22nd district while I work to clear my name of the baseless charges leveled against me. I will also be reclaiming my seat on the Appropriations Committee when the second session of the 109th Congress convenes later this month.

Sincerely,

Tom DeLay
He's going to continue running for reelection for his seat in Texas and working to clear his name from the prosecution by rogue prosecutor Ronnie Earle. However, DeLay's problems go well beyond Earle to his dealings with Jack Abramoff et al.

And this means that one of my 2006 predictions may have gone by the boards. Oh well. Pelosi will continue as a back bencher, which is just as good.

Others noticing DeLay's news: Doug Krile and Doklephant, where Justin Gardener thinks that DeLay was reading the polls that came out showing the GOP was in trouble. I think Justin needs to reread the polls - and look at the raw data. However, Justin is on to something when he said that he stepped down because of what might be coming down the pike - in the way of more damning information.

UPDATE:
To be clear, DeLay had already stepped down - as per GOP House rules. This is his letter stating that he will not intend on returning to the position. Still significant, and it also shows that DeLay thinks that the problems re: Abramoff are far from over.

The Ronnie Earle prosecution isn't the problem here although that was what instigated DeLay's original stepping down (indictments led to invocation of GOP rules).

Gotcha

Another UNSCAMmer was caught. South Korean businessman Tongsun Park was arrested in Houston on charges stemming from his involvment in the oil for food program.

If Park's name sounds familiar, it should. He's been here before. Back in the 1970s, he was at the center of the Koreagate scandal-an influence peddling scheme that implicated 115 members of Congress, although only one member was convicted of wrongdoing; Rep. Richard T. Hanna (D-CA).
Although the payments to congressmen caused a scandal, Park was never convicted of wrongdoing in a U.S. court. He fled to South Korea when news of the scandal broke, and charges of bribery and conspiracy were dropped after he agreed to return to the United States and testify before Congress. His biggest problems came with the Internal Revenue Service, which said he owed millions of dollars in back taxes for not reporting his commissions.
It's always interesting that the same figures keep popping up in these scandals and controversies.

Meanwhile, the UN's woes are still mounting. In the form of Sudan. Even as the violence continues in Sudan unabated, the UN is withdrawing peacekeepers from Dafur. That makes a lot of sense. And Sudan is becoming a hub in the nuclear black market. Again, not a big surprise. Failed states have a way of becoming havens for nefarious activities. The IAEA, which is supposed to prevent proliferation and keep track of such things, isn't on the ball here either.

UPDATE:
Posted to Point Five and The Donovan (Argghhh!)

Blocking Sensible Steps at the Border

Illegal immigration across open borders undermines national security. This isn't a matter of debate. Illegal immigrants are breaking the law - it really is that simple. By crossing the border without declaring themselves as visitors, they're breaking the law.

They're not undocumented aliens.

They're not migrant workers.

They're individually crossing into this country illegally and should be treated as such. The open borders lobby has put these other terms into the vernacular to hide and obscure the fact that the people they're talking about and representing are, in fact, entering this country illegally.

If someone wants to enter this country for work, there are steps he or she can take. It's called obtaining work visas and the necessary paperwork. And I have absolutely no problem with people coming in from Mexico or elsewhere on work visas who respect the US immigration law and our borders. I have no patience for those who don't - especially those open borders immigration lawyers who are trying to throw a huge monkey wrench in immigration policies on misguided notions of what immigration is about.




Instead, we're seeing the Mexican government actively assisting those crossing the borders illegally, including distributing guides to safely crossing the borders and evading US ICE Agents. In fact, the Mexican government opposes a fence. It's hard to feel sorry for those illegal immigrants who are coming into this country to work, though they are doing so for the best of reasons. The solution for these people is to expedite a legal work program for these people so that they can enter this country to work. We've even gotten Mexican officials calling the plan stupid.

According to the Boston Globe:
Each year, more than 1 million undocumented migrants try to slip across the mountains and deserts along the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexico border in search of work in the United States. At least 464 died making the journey this year, many from dehydration.

During his 2000 election campaign, President Vicente Fox promised to make the easing of U.S. immigration laws a central goal of his administration.

His efforts stumbled in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, as U.S. politicians became more concerned with keeping potential terrorists out than with legalizing the status of millions of Mexicans already working in fruit fields, kitchen and construction sites north of the border.

President Bush has long favored a guest worker scheme that would grant temporary work visas to some Mexicans, but such plans are strongly opposed within his Republican Party.

Fox recently described as "disgraceful and shameful" the plan to build two parallel steel-and-wire fences fitted with lights and cameras along sections of the border.
That's why the call to build and maintain a fence along the Mexican border has been getting play. Border control is just one part of a larger issue of national security. In an age where people are determined to attack the US and cause mass casaulty events, maintaining borders and knowing who and what is crossing into the US is a major security concern.

These Mexican officials are actively and passively undermining US national security, and for what reason? Because the illegal aliens working in this country essentially provide the income that keeps the Mexican government afloat. Without the money flowing back into Mexico from the illegal aliens working in the US, the Mexican economy would quickly turn to mush. The remittances are either the second or third major source of revenue in the country (Mexico's top three revenue sources are petroleum, tourism, and illegal immigrants remitting monies back to Mexican relatives).

There are even US papers who think that this fencing would be detrimental to US interests. Why? Because the Mexican government says that the fencing will not stop the flow of illegal aliens into the US. Well, building a fence is one part of a larger strategy, which has to include going after those businesses that hire and rely upon illegal immigrants for their labor.

This means many farming businesses, restaurants, and other menial labor jobs that most Americans wouldn't consider doing. Will this mean higher costs associated with those businesses? Probably.

But the key issue of whether the US should build a fence or not is our sovereign right, not one that any other nation can or should impose on the US. A Certain Slant of Light has a thorough posting on the subject.

Sharon's Final Battle and Iran's Opening Gambit

Prime Minister Sharon's condition is stable for the moment and doctors are continuing to monitor his condition closely. The latest CT scans show additional improvement, but Sharon will remain in an induced coma.

Kadima is uniting behind Olmert, which makes it highly likely that the party will not only remain together going forward into the March elections, but that the party will maintain the support that it has garnered thus far. Olmert is looking like the frontrunner for the upcoming elections.

Environmental Republican has some interesting thoughts about the comments made earlier this week by both Pat Robertson and Iranian nutbar Ahmadinejad.
I was waiting to hear who would say the first despicable thing about Sharon's condition. Turns out it came from two likely sources; the demented Pat Robertson (a man of God who may just be turned away at the pearly gates) and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (a man who one can hope is forced to watch more righteous men getting busy with 72 virgins from the other side of the fence before decending to where he belongs).


Meanwhile, Israeli police and the Shin Bet have arrested Jaris Jaris and have accused him of spying for Iran. Jaris intended to run for the Knesset.
Jaris Jaris, 57, was arrested on December 12, after police discovered that he had been recruited by Iran and was asked to use his political contacts to infiltrate the government and the Israeli political system.

Jaris, police said, fled Israel in 1970 and moved to Lebanon after he was caught operating a Fatah terror cell. Once in Lebanon, Jaris continued working for the Fatah and was responsible for sending terrorists across the border into Israel. In 1996, Jaris returned to Israel together with additional officials from the Palestinian Authority and from May 2001 until November 2003 he served as the head of the Fasuta Local Council.

In September 2004, police said, Jaris traveled to Cyprus to meet with Hani Abdullah - a friend he made in Lebanon - to promote the establishment of a joint research center. Abdullah told Jaris that the center, if he wanted, could be funded by the Hizbullah and Iran. Jaris agreed.

Two months later, police said, Abdullah called Jaris and told him to come to Cyprus to meet an Iranian donor for the center. During his police interrogation, Jaris admitted that the man he met was from Iranian Intelligence. The agent asked Jaris to "infiltrate the Israeli political system, to create political contacts and to join an existing Israeli political party," police said.

Jaris joined Meretz towards the end of 2004 and in conversations with political activists expressed interest in becoming a member of Knesset. Three months later, Jaris visited Cyprus for a third time where he met with two Iranian agents who asked him about his past and his connections with politicians in Israel. Following the meeting, Jaris was asked to try and establish contacts with the top political echelon.
Atlas Shrugs has continuing coverage on Iran's plans and intentions.

Iran continues to crack down on free speech, shutting newspapers and outlets that might criticize the mad mullahs. And they're playing the Russians to boot.

UPDATE:
The latest news reports indicate that Sharon will very likely survive the stroke that Sharon suffered on Wednesday. Survival is one thing, quality of life is quite another.
Cohen warned, however, that the prime minister remained in serious condition, and noted: "He will not continue to be prime minister, but maybe he will be able to understand and to speak."

On Sunday morning, an interdisciplinary team of experts at Hadassah-University Medical Center will assess Sharon's condition, then decide whether to perform another computerized tomography (CT) scan of his brain and when to gradually reduce the amount of drugs that have kept him in an induced coma.


UPDATE:
Gates of Vienna has a thought provoking posting comparing Sharon to Abe Lincoln. It's definitely worth a read.

Thankfully there are still some folks worrying about Iran. I know I do. Iran's probing and prodding to exploit weaknesses, including that caused by Sharon's illness. And there are plenty of them - from the EU and IAEA inability to hold Iran to its commitments, to the UN's utter inability to act because countries like Russia and China counter any efforts to hold Iran accountable. All the while, Iran marches closer to having the nuclear weapons they crave.

Oh, and for the record, these folks worrying about the Iranian threat are being critical of the US for not doing more. That means they're criticizing Bush. I agree. More must be done, even if it means expanding the problem in Iraq - considering that the Iranians are busy assisting the terrorists with materials and personnel that are used to kill Americans in Iraq, the threat needs to be addressed, and soon.

Israel is issuing a retort to Ahmadinejad's comments - they're starting an anti-Ahmadinejad website. It's a start, but we already have an unofficial one. It's called Atlas Shrugs.


Posted to: Wizbang and Basil's Blog and Mudville Gazette.

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Friday, January 06, 2006

Murtha's Mess

Can I get a fact-check from the congregation:

Something isn't quite jibing here relating to the whole Murtha mess.

Murtha makes statements that could ostensibly undermine the war effort by reducing the numbers of people enlisting in the military or reenlisting after completing their original service. Is there any actual proof that he's done this?***

Murtha denies that this is the case. I know that Gen. Pace has said that Murtha undermined the war effort with his statments, but is there any tangible proof that American citizens actually believed anything Murtha said and caused a drop in the enlistment rates? Because the earlier enlistment rates that I recall seeing showed that the military was doing a very good job on new enlistments and reelistments were at record levels.

The AP story continues:
In a statement released Thursday, Murtha said: "The military had no problem recruiting directly after 9/11 because everyone understood that we had been attacked. But now the military's ability to attract recruits is being hampered by the prospect of prolonged, extended and repeated deployments, inadequate equipment, shortened home stays, the lack of any connection between Iraq and the brutal attacks of 9/11, and ? most importantly ? the administration's constantly changing, undefined, open-ended military mission in Iraq."

Later Thursday, Murtha said he's spoken with military leaders and "they're frustrated by their mission."

Speaking before a town hall meeting on Iraq in Arlington, Va., hosted by Rep. Jim Moran, D-Va., Murtha said Pace called him to discuss the war.

"Peter Pace told me this last night: They know militarily they can't win this," Murtha said.
Blackfive says it best in taking apart Murtha on this last point:
Pace noted, correctly, that a military victory is impossible against an insurgency of this type as the bad guys will never engage in suicidal force on force engagements. But that was never the (non-existent) plan, we always knew that the military had to provide security while the Iraqi forces were trained and took over.
Rep. Murtha purposefully misrepresented what was stated for political gain and knowing full well that most Americans would simply hear the 'can't win' part without knowing the full context and how, in fact, the US is winning because the terrorists cannot control their own destiny. Their future is wholly based on what the US does. If the US withdraws prematurely, the terrorists win. If the US shows weakness, the terrorists will seek to capitalize on the media frenzy that ensues. The terrorists are far more adept at using the media than most folks realize - precisely because many in the media have taken it upon themselves to undermine the US war effort - by either conscious decision or through a complete and utter inability to fully report the situation in Iraq or Afghanistan.

What complicates this whole matter is that just when you think Rep. Murtha's mess is over, he keeps stepping in it - saying that he's concerned that ...
I worry about a slow withdrawal which makes it look like there's a victory when I think it should be a redeployment as quickly as possible and let the Iraqis handle the whole thing."
I'm sorry, but that's precisely what it is, what it should look like, and what every US citizen should want.

Others have already started taking Murtha to task for his statements, including Gateway Pundit, Michelle Malkin, Greyhawk at Mudville Gazette, Byrd Droppings, Macsmind, and Mark in Mexico.

UPDATE:
Down at the bottom of Greyhawk's posting you have an intermediate answer - the Army met its recruiting goals for the last six months. We'd need a further breakdown for pre and post-Murtha anti-US statements.

UPDATE:
Posted to Basil's Blog and Jo's Cafe. Also covering Murtha's madness: TMH's Bacon Bits and bRight and Early.

UPDATE:
Posted to Stop the ACLU.

UPDATE 1/7/2006:
Michelle Malkin now has video of the exchange between Reps. Moran and Murtha and Sgt. Mark Seavey at a town hall meeting where Murtha got a dressing down by Seavey.

UPDATE 1/7/2006:
Still more from Michelle Malkin, who has additional video of the exchange between Moran, Murtha and a retired US General Wagner who served in Vietnam. Also chiming in on Murtha's comments and noting that Marines police themselves when they get out of line - The Donovan (Argghhh!). Further posted to Point Five.

Gaming the Results

You knew this was coming, didn't you. Yet another poll came out issuing doom and gloom for the Republicans. One of my coworkers pointed this out to me this afternoon, saying that this was the end for the GOP in the 2006 elections.

I counseled that it was a wee bit early for that, but I had sensed that there was something off with the poll, but couldn't quite figure out what it was.

Curt at Flopping Aces found it so I didn't have to look very far.

The poll oversampled Democrats. By a big margin.

One would hope and expect that a poll that claims to be a nationally representative sample would take equivalent numbers of Democrats and Republicans with a mix of Independents. Not the case here - nor in several other polls touted by the media outlets lately.

Curt went through the metrics in the poll to find the key details left out of the poll stories - and one that completely undermines the results:
Project #81-5139-72
Interview dates: January 3-5, 2006
Interviews 1,001 adults, 856 registered voters Margin of error: +3.1 for all adults, +3.4 for registered voters

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS POLL
CONDUCTED BY IPSOS PUBLIC AFFAIRS
NOTE: all results shown are percentages unless otherwise labeled.

REGISTERED VOTERS/ PARTY AFFILIATION
1. Are you currently registered to vote at this address, or not?

ALL
ADULTS
Yes………………………………………..81
No ………………………………………..18
Refused/not sure ……………………..1

REGISTERED VOTERS

Strongly Republican …………………..13
Moderately Republican ………………..27
Definitely Independent/neither……….8
Moderately Democrat…………………..32
Strongly Democrat …………………….20
Refused/not sure……………………….-

Total Republican ………………………..40
Total Democrat ………………………….52
In other words, the published and touted poll results can be nearly completely explained by the oversampling of Democrats and not because of any trend that disfavors Republicans. So, if Democrats want to keep looking at the polls and thinking that they're in a great position to pick up seats in November, go right ahead. You'll be disappointed yet again because you didn't bother to read more than just the headlines.

UPDATE:
Newsbusters caught this one too.

Sigh of Relief

For wineries and all the related businesses throughout California wine country, that is:
"The storm was so intense and arrived so quickly that people were unprepared to protect their assets," Jennifer Kopp, executive director of the Napa Valley Grapegrowers, said yesterday. "But there won't be any negative effect on the quality or quantity of next year's grapes or wines."

That is because the grape harvest ended in mid-November and the vineyards in the Northern California wine country - along with vineyards and agricultural crops in the San Joaquin Valley and near the Monterey Coast - are mostly dormant at this time of year and able to survive massive floods, even if the waters take a month to recede.

A bigger problem is vineyard and road cleanup, said Gladys Horiuchi, a spokeswoman for the Wine Institute, a public policy and lobbying group.

"Grape production shouldn't be affected," said Ms. Horiuchi. "But tourists will be reluctant to go up to the wine country for months, even though the roads will be cleared in a few days."
This is quite unlike the situation that befell Long Island's wineries, which experienced torrential rains (10+ inches within a week) that inundated vineyards within weeks of the harvest last October. And even there, the situation isn't as bad as it could have been.

And if you're a fan of New York wines, Lenn Thompson is the blog to check out - it's devoted to the New York vino. Bigtime.

al Qaeda's Watching

al Qaeda certainly has the media down pat. They know that whatever they say will be picked up and repeated without fail. Or criticism. Or a thorough analysis.
Al-Zawahri, wearing a white turban and gray robe and seated next to an automatic rifle, waved his finger for emphasis as he spoke in the two-minute excerpt aired by Al-Jazeera.

''I congratulate (the Islamic nation) for the victory of Islam in Iraq,'' he said.

Al-Zawahri apparently was referring to comments last month by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, who said President Bush had authorized new troop cuts below the 138,000 level that prevailed for most of last year.

Rumsfeld did not reveal the exact size of the cut, but the Pentagon said the reductions would be about 7,000 troops, about the size of two combat brigades. The Pentagon has not announced a timetable for troop reductions, but indications are that the force could be cut significantly by the end of this year.

''You remember I told you more than a year ago that the American withdrawal from Iraq is only a matter of time, and here they are now ... negotiating with the mujahedeen,'' al-Zawahri said.
Zawahiri's view of time and space are warped - as the US is choosing the time and place to withdraw on its own, and not under the threat of al Qaeda, which has been unable to assert control over any territory since 9/11, nor can it claim a military victory anywhere.

However, they know that if they repeat that they're winning long enough, folks will begin believing the hype. And that's precisely what this is. Hype. And propaganda.

That the Times dutifully reports without fail.

And then there's the way in which these videos get to the media:
Al-Jazeera said the videotape was dated in December but it gave no more specifics. Network spokesman Ayman Gaballah said the videotape, about 20 minutes long, was acquired through ''a special source.'' He would not elaborate.
Considering that the US media was in a frenzy following the Murtha comments about withdrawing from Iraq swiftly, the successful conduct of the Iraqi elections, plus the comments by various Administration officials that stated that the US position was to begin drawing down military forces in Iraq as circumstances dictated, it is highly probable that Zawahiri was regurgitating what he saw on the US media and figures that if it might work for Congressional Democrats in advancing their agenda that it might work for al Qaeda's agenda.

UPDATE:
Others noticing the al Qaeda crowing about winning in Iraq: Power Line. John notes:
It's been obvious for some time that troop levels would soon be reduced; the question has been whether the withdrawal would be consequent upon success, as the Bush administration insists, or upon defeat, as most Democrats say. Zawahiri's latest propaganda effort is consistent with the views of Jack Murtha, Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry and other antiwar Democrats.

A Great Fisking of Iraq-related Statements

Hat Tip: Mister Snitch

A Novel Reason Pataki Will Never Be President

Thank the combover for that. And his RINO tendencies. And the fact that there's absolutely no support for him to become President outside of his small circle of advisors (if that).

Rudy doesn't have to worry about that, especially after a makeover removed the combover with a widely approved choice in hair styling a few years back.

Focusing on the Suicide Bombing Targets

What is one supposed to make of the terrorist attacks against funeral proceedings that have killed scores of people, or the attacks on recruits for Iraqi security forces?

For starters, targeting a funeral procession suggests that the terrorists are scraping the bottom of the barrel. They've found that attacking US forces does little except draw massive firepower on the terrorists command and control (and whatever remains of those), the terrorists' remaining infrastructure, and the general ire of Iraqis who are increasingly realizing that the terrorists are all about nihlism and nothing else.

Attacking a funeral procession is not about making a political statement, but about inflicting more death and despair on people already grieving over the death of another person. It is an attack on a clique or a clan of people, but the effects are opposite that which the terrorists intend. Instead of cowering, Iraqis show their resilience and redouble their efforts.

In fact, the attacks on Iraqis lining up to join Iraqi security forces have not deterred Iraqis one bit. They're far more resilient than the Leftists in this country who would cut and run at this critical juncture. And they're increasingly showing their displeasure with the terrorists by calling them out by name. As Confederate Yankee notes:
The media breathlessly covers the moment-to-moment carnage of the day. They cannot understand, nor provide context to, the courage of a growing, increasingly tough anti-insurgency movement in Iraq. It is one thing to talk tough, but another thing entirely to stand for your beliefs.
And it is quite another for the media to accurately reflect this in their ongoing coverage. For example, Ron Kuby (on 77WABC in NYC) will breathlessly state that while President Bush said that 2005 was a turning point and things are going well in Iraq though there will be setbacks from time to time, the recent suicide bombings killing more than 100 people gives lie to what Bush said. None of the context is provided, nor the courage that Iraqis display daily by showing up for these queues for security jobs. It's a myopic view that distorts and shades every bit of coverage coming from Iraq through the big media sources (tv, network news, and traditional media outlets).

The view from the boots on the ground shows something quite different than Kuby in his comfy chair at WABC sees from reading wire reports, though Iraq the Model is showing signs of pessimism given problems that have cropped up with the election results, the two major suicide bombings, and a feeling that the current crop of politicians in Iraq aren't capable.

Bill Roggio reports that while the New Year's Day offensive didn't go as planned for al Qaeda, their follow on efforts have been deadly successful. The terrorists are targeting Shi'a, Sunni who are working with the US and coalition partners, and the oil infrastructure. Bill writes:
al-Qaeda and the insurgency can still dispense death and disrupt services in Iraq. These attacks increasingly come in spurts as al-Qaeda does not seem to have the capacity to maintain a long term bombing offensive. The attacks are grouped together and designed for media shock effect, and directed at the morale of the American people and government. But the terror attacks have little real effect on the Iraqi people.
It would seem that Bill hasn't read Iraq the Model's comments - that the attacks are starting to wear on the Iraqi people, though I think it's more a function of frustration over the election process than the attacks, though even there, negotiations for forming a government continue.

Circling the Wagons, The Iranian Threat, and Sharon

Israeli Prime Minister Sharon's condition worsened overnight and was rushed back into surgery. Definitely not a good thing, especially when friends and relatives were told to make their way to the hospital.

So, what does the blogosphere think of all this and what Sharon's exit stage left from the Israeli political landscape and the larger Middle East political landscape means in a larger context?

Well, there's quite a few divergent viewpoints. You've got Lefties who think that Sharon was a butcher and good riddance to bad rubbish. That viewpoint isn't dissimilar from that of the terrorists and Iranian mullahs who seek Israel's destruction.

Charles Krauthammer thinks that this is a devastating blow to Israel. A serious blow, yes. Devastating? I'm not sure considering that the idea behind Kadima is one whose time had come - a third way to disengage and secure Israel's borders in the absence of any rational negotiating partner. The Palestinians have gotten nearly everything they've demanded in terms of land (all of Gaza and 93% of the West Bank), and that has resulted in the collapse of the Intifada and forced the Palestinians to fight amongst themselves, but Kadima needs a leader to shape and fashion a cohesive policy going forward.
Kadima represents an idea whose time has come. But not all ideas whose time has come realize themselves. They need real historical actors to carry them through. Sharon was a historical actor of enormous proportion, having served in every one of Israel's wars since its founding in 1948, having almost single-handedly saved Israel with his daring crossing of the Suez Canal in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, and now having broken Israel's left-right political duopoly that had left the country bereft of any strategic ideas to navigate the post-Oslo world. Sharon put Israel on the only rational strategic path out of that wreckage. But, alas, he had taken his country only halfway there when he himself was taken away. And he left no Joshua.
The fear is that with no successor groomed for taking over, Kadima will fail. Too many Israelis think that Sharon was on to something to give up on the idea and someone will take the mantle of leadership.

In Israel, some think that Benjamin Netenyahu will be the political winner in this difficult time. I'm not so sure; he may be charismatic, but his economic policies have alienated many Israelis as he's tried to move Israel away from a socialistic economy to one that is more market-based. No matter how you cut it, this is going to mark the end of an era for Israeli politics. My gut feeling is that it will be Olmert or someone else from within the newly formed Kadima.

Kobayashi Maru (yes, it's a Star Trek reference) notes the upcoming bumpy ride, and that the wolves will circle Israel to take advantage of even the perceived uncertainty in the political situation. Especially Iran. That's one of the reasons that Olmert's cabinet meeting yesterday was so important - to show the continuity of government and that no one person is indispensible.

Shrink Wrapped also notes the Iranian threat, which increases daily especially with the situation in Israel. The Officer's Club suggests that sanctions against Iran may actually work because the Iranian people are seeing just how loony their leadership is and may take direct action against them. Military action may work, but it might counter our efforts elsewhere in the region.

And just when you think things couldn't get any worse in the region, some bizarrely positive news has come out of the Syrian front:
The tipping point for Syrian tyranny may have come yesterday as former regime vice-president Abdul Halim Khaddam announced publicly that he wants to lead a popular revolution to oust the Bashar Assad dictatorship and to see the former opthalmologist in prison for the murder of Rafik Hariri. Meanwhile, he made clear, he remains available to the UN if it really wants to investigate Syrian crimes.
Khaddam's intentions aren't exactly clear. He could quite as easily be seeking power just for himself to replace Assad in a coup, or he could be genuinely interested in a democratic revolution in Syria. But this developing situation could quite possibly neutralize Syria as a player against Israel or Lebanon at this critical juncture.

UPDATE:
Sentiment from around the world continues to filter in and the Arab world in particular wouldn't mind if Sharon died - though they'd largely prefer he die in a more violent manner. Iran, for all intents and purposes, tells the UN to drop dead after missing a deadline. More sauce for the goose.

There have been unconfirmed reports of Sharon having died, but official reports have indicated that he is in critical condition with a slim chance at recovery.

UPDATE:
Stop the ACLU and Michelle Malkin both pick up the confusion over Sharon's health status, which is now considered to be improving, though it certainly appears that his condition is terminal (and day to day like the rest of us out there who haven't suffered a debilitating stroke). He may well be on death's door, but without official word, this is but a rumor.

I'm surprised that no one has commented that the media hasn't learned anything from the events in Tallmansville, WV, where 12 miners were killed in a mining explosion, but the media ran with the initial reports of there being 12 survivors without getting an official word or talking with the principals who made the decisions. It wouldn't hurt to check facts once in a while.

Others covering Sharon's declining medical condition, the geopolitical situation, and the US reaction: Austin Bay, Israpundit, the Counterterrorism Blog, The Jawa Report, Classical Values, Ace of Spades, Christopher Hitchens at Slate (who provides an unvarnished take on Sharon's life that was filled with violence as befitting a general in the military who may have overstepped his bounds on several occasions), Kesher Talk, Legal Fiction (who gives begrudging respect), and the Political Pit Bull.

UPDATE:
According to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, Sharon is in his last hours or days following the latest surgical procedure and comes despite the fact that his latest CT scans have been positive and show significant improvement. Boker Tov (Hebrew for Good Morning) has more details.

UPDATE:
Meryl Yourish has continuing updates, but the key for those tracking the political fallout should read through this posting. It details the blueprint for Kadima and it's future.

Submitted to Basil's Blog, Jo's Cafe, and MacStansbury.

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Thursday, January 05, 2006

Where It Will Lead

First there was Michael Scanlon, then Adam Kidan. Now we have Jack Abramoff. Where are prosecutors heading with this? Even bigger fish to fry. That's where.
So far we have Adam Kiden pleading guilty, and also Scanlon, and now Jack Abramoff. The government's pattern is to get the lower levels talking and to move up the ladder. It reminds me of building a snowperson (called it a snowman back then). You keep rolling it across the ground and it picks up more snow until it gets very large. This is likely to be a VERY big snowperson.
The White Collar Crime Prof Blog is a good place to check on regarding the Abramoff scandal. They'll help cut through the media coverage and get to the heart of the matter.

Now, who you ask, are Scanlon and Kiden? Scanlon was a former aide to House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and pleaded guilty to bribing a Member of Congress. Adam Kidan assisted Scanlon and Abramoff in this endeavor. Kidan also partnered with Abramoff in the purchase of SunCruz casinos.

UPDATE 1/6/2006:
Rep. Charles Rangel, who only a few days ago said that he wouldn't give back any monies relating to Abramoff or his Indian casino pals, has suddenly done an about face and will donate $2,000 to charity. But, he'll keep the rest of the $36,000. Seems to me that he's been reading tea leaves and realized that his earlier position was wholly untenable. The new position is better, but not by much.

What is the distinguishing factor between the money given to charity and the money retained? Rangel believes that the rest of the money had nothing to do with Abramoff directly. That's the same game being played all over D.C. right now. Splitting hairs over whether monies were directly attributable to Abramoff, his co-felons (Kidan and Scanlon), or the casinos they directly represented.

And like that, this scandal will melt away...

Drawing Center to South Street Seaport

The Drawing Center, which along with the International Freedom Center, was at the heart of a major dustup over the appropriateness of anti-American projects at Ground Zero, has apparently found a new home.

At the South Street Seaport. Specifically - at the now abandoned Fulton Fish Market building. The new space will be apparently twice the size of its current home on Wooster St., but smaller than the space planned at Ground Zero.

But don't worry. Taxpayers are going to help foot the bill for this project.
The Lower Manhattan Development Corporation, which had been instrumental in bringing the Drawing Center to the trade center project, gave it $150,000 to study alternative sites. In November, the corporation board approved a grant of up to $10 million to the center for its new home, which is expected to cost four or five times that amount.

"It's important to us that the Drawing Center not only relocate to Lower Manhattan but relocate in a way that contributes to the revitalization of Lower Manhattan," said Stefan Pryor, the corporation president.

Law and Order: French Style

A gang of 20 Muslim immigrants terrorized a trainload of passengers and gang raped one woman. This comes on the heels of the New Years Eve car torchings that were 30% higher than last year's celebratory torchings despite there being a greater police presence after three weeks of rioting in November resulted in nearly 10,000 cars torched, hundreds of businesses damaged, and hundreds in jail.
The five-hour-long criminal frenzy was "totally unacceptable," French President Jacques Chirac told reporters. "Those guilty will be found and punished, as they deserve."

The gang of between 20 and 30 youths boarded the train, heading from Nice on the French Riviera to Lyon, in eastern France, early on Jan. 1, as it carried 600 passengers home from New Year's Eve partying overnight.

Once inside, they went wild, forcing passengers to hand over mobile phones and wallets, and slashing seats and breaking windows.

A 20-year-old woman cornered by several of the marauders was sexually molested.
The police? Only 3 showed initially and awaited backup before taking any decisive action. No pasaran has been all over this story from the start, including reports from eyewitnesses, and has been picked up by LGF and Michelle Malkin. Malkin wonders where are the feminists to come to the defense of the women molested and sexually assaulted on the train. Good question.

The truly sad fact is that the French violence continues unabated and the same groups involved in the original rioting are still up to no good. And the French authorities aren't willing or able to crack down on these thugs. Out of the 20-30 thugs in this group, only three were arrested, and three others were released despite carrying a knife, a screwdriver, and hashish.

The NYT finally realizes that there's a story here and carries a report that Chirac vows to find the 'youths' involved in the rioting on the train. This all comes at a time when the anti-riot measures established during the riots are set to expire.
Before this weekend, the conservative government feared the unrest might flare up again during New Year's Eve celebrations. Revelers burned 425 vehicles - up from 333 the previous year - but there were no major clashes, and the national police chief said Sunday that France had been spared a revival of the unrest.

Chirac plans to lift the state of emergency this week, more than six weeks earlier than originally planned, his office said without giving a reason. But the announcement came after the relatively violence-free New Year's celebrations.
I'm somewhat fuzzy on the details here. Apparently the French don't consider torching hundreds of cars violence, despite the fact that each incident is a criminal act - arson. The rate of torchings was 30% higher despite the increased police presences. And it doesn't take into account the rioting on that French train.

There is but one conclusion to be reached: the French government is oblivious to the threat and would much rather bury its head in the sand.

Sharon's Stable But The Political Situation Isn't

While PM Sharon is in an induced coma and on a respirator after undergoing emergency surgery to relieve bleeding on his brain, the political situation in the Middle East remains murky.

The BBC calls the world reaction to Sharon's medical situation mixed. Terrorist groups are elated. Some Palestinian politicians are more cautious, knowing that things can change quite rapidly, especially if the terrorists go nuts - it hurts their public relations. And more than a few think that Sharon's departure would mean an even more hardline approach towards the Palestinians. Curious.

Meanwhile, the Palestinians are up to their usual tricks, but have added a few new ones. They're now taking on the Egyptians. More than 60 have been arrested by the Egyptians for the riots started in Rafah that spilled across the border when Palestinians took bulldozers to the fenceline. This makes me feel all warm and fuzzy. Of course, the negotiations are all with the intent and purpose of destroying Israel in a million little steps, but that's not important right now. The Palestinians will simply play the waiting game until the March elections. The peace process will be on hold until then.

Israelis have to wonder what will happen to Kadima, the party started by Sharon after deciding that Likud wasn't sensitive enough to Israel's security needs. Who will succeed Sharon? Olmert is the temporary Prime Minister, but there are others who have higher profiles that could run the party. Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni, and Shaul Mofaz are just three of the politicians involved in the party who could take the lead considering Sharon's medical condition. Meir Sheetrit is another Kadima member who could take the reins, but my money would be on Olmert at this point. Even Mofaz is throwing his support behind Olmert. It's also unlikely that the Israeli elections in March would be delayed regardless of Sharon's medical situation.

Olmert held the first cabinet meeting since Sharon's crisis yesterday. The business of governance waits for no one, and the business of running Israel is no exception.

And this situation once again should beg the question of whether the US government is fully capable of resuming work should an attack succeed against the federal government. Continuity of government isn't a big priority these days, despite the fact that one of the four planes hijacked on 9/11 was meant for the Capitol building. While there are some plans under consideration and some steps have been taken, the chain of command is quite limited and how Congress would function under such circumstances is an unanswered question. Given that Congress is required to operate with a working quorum, there are serious questions as to what would happen should a majority be incapacitated or killed in an attack. And that uncertainty means that an attack could paralyze the ability of the nation to retaliate against its enemies, make the necessary appropriations, and conduct the business of government.

UPDATE:
Daniel Pipes thinks Israel's political situation will revert to its prior form - the end of Kadima and the reabsorption of Kadima politicians into Likud and Labor. Israpundit agrees with Pipes. I'm not so sure. Kadima was clearly a centrist party founded on a single issue, but it had widespread support. The real question is whether the support was for the cult of personality of Sharon, or for the general propositions on which he founded the new party. I think there might be more support for the party than Pipes suggests. Mere Rhetoric thinks that the politicians who joined Kadima have plenty of incentives to make it work - given all the burned bridges and lack of suitable alternatives.

Irish Pennants reminds folks that no one is indispensable.

The Palestinians continue to celebrate the impending death of Sharon. Gunfire and rocket launches. But the folks at Democratic Underground aren't any better at containing their glee at Sharon's unfortunate turn of health.

UPDATE:
It looks like Sharon will be kept in an induced coma for up to 72 hours. More details on his specific treatment:
Dr. Shlomo Mor-Yosef, director general of Hadassah Hospital, said Sharon would remain in deep sedation and on a respirator for at least two and possibly three days to allow him to "recover from severe trauma." The treatment would decrease pressure in Sharon's skull, and after the sedation period, doctors hope to gradually awaken him, Mor-Yosef said.

Sharon, who underwent seven hours of emergency surgery to stop widespread bleeding in his brain, was in serious but stable condition. The massive stroke made it unlikely that the 77-year-old prime minister would return to power.

Mor-Yosef said doctors had not received a "no resuscitation order" that would prevent them from trying to revive a patient whose heart or breathing has stopped.

"We are fighting for the life of the prime minister, with no compromise," Mor-Yosef said.


UPDATE:
What do Pat Robertson and Iranian nutcase Ahmadinejad have in common? They both wish ill on Ariel Sharon. Robertson thinks that Sharon's stroke is god's way of punishing Sharon for dividing Israel and therefore thwarting the second coming. Okily dokily. Let's not forget that without Sharon, Israel would quite possibly have ceased to exist in 1973.

Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad would much prefer Sharon to perish. That goes with his whole "wiping Israel off the map" meme, so that one wasn't much of a surprise.

Others noting the curious confluence of crapulent thinking: The Moderate Voice, Atlas Shrugs, The Sundries Shack, Andrew Sullivan, and Abracadabrah.

Meanwhile, Saeb Erekat has the gaul to say that he hopes that Israel lives up to its obligations regardless of who's in charge. Considering that the Palestinians have not fulfilled any of its obligations under Oslo in the decade since that document was signed, nor any of the agreements or frameworks or roadmaps decided since, I'll have to work hard to contain my laughter at Erekat.

On a more serious note, IRIS blog has a number of concerns about Sharon's treatment, including why Sharon was not taken to a hospital closer to his Negev ranch and why there wasn't an emergency plan in place. There are good questions to be raised, but I think that his family thought that he had time to get to his doctor and hospital of choice. That's a decision that they may come to regret. IRIS has additional coverage as well.

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Kings of the Stone Age

You remember the Taliban, don't you? They're the thugs that ran Afghanistan until the US invaded in 2001 to rid the country of its government that harbored al Qaeda bigwigs including Osama bin Laden.

Well, they've been out of power for a couple of years and have been unable to sway any Afghans to their worldview. So, they've resorted to killing their opponents.

They're now going after teachers who are providing girls and women a chance to become literate.
Taliban terrorists beheaded a teacher while forcing his wife and eight children to watch, the latest in a string of shocking attacks against educators at schools where girls study.
The gang of armed thugs decapitated Malim Abdul Habib in his home in the town of Qalat late Tuesday, said Ali Khail, a provincial government spokesman.

The attackers then fled and the wife called police, Khail said. Police are questioning three people who were guests in the victim's home at the time.

Habib was the headmaster of Shaikh Mathi Baba high school, which is attended by 1,300 boys and girls.

The fanatical Taliban movement claims that educating girls is against Islam — and they even oppose government-funded boys' schools, because they teach subjects other than religion.
In other words, education other than religious indoctrination is verboten according to the Taliban.

No wonder most Afghans don't see eye to eye with the Taliban. They've already witnessed what literacy can do - economic growth and opportunities brought about by the deposing of the Taliban by American forces. The problem is that the Taliban have taken to going after schools by intimidating the teachers and administrators into closing due to security concerns.

This affects the long term socio-political success of the Afghan people. Now is the time to make sure that the Taliban's efforts are crushed, so that the Afghan people have a chance to succeed.

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

The Immediate Successor?

With Ariel Sharon suffering the effects of a massive stroke, power has been transferred to Sharon's Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert under Israeli law. This transfer was going to occur when Sharon was supposed to go in for surgery to repair a heart defect on Thursday, but the serious medical condition has changed everyone's plans.

So who is Olmert, and what does this mean for Israel, the Palestinian crisis, and the Middle East in general? Will the Iranians be emboldened by the crisis in Israel?

He's served in the IDF and has been Mayor of Jerusalem. He's been a long time member of the Knesset and most recently been Sharon's right hand man.

Among the more interesting points, he opposed the Camp David Accords and the notion of land for peace, but has since turned around and supported the Gaza Disengagement and that Begin was correct.

And it didn't take long for the terrorists to threaten Olmert with death either - they can't help themselves.

Apparently the answer for the Palestinians in the short term is that Sharon's illness and incapacitation has done nothing to change their behavior or position towards Israel's existence. Not that anything short of Israel's capitulation or the destruction of all Palestinian territories would change that. The terrorist groups are dedicated to Israel's destruction, not just the destruction of a single individual. Fatah, Hamas, Hizbullah all seek Israel's destruction - they only differ on the timeline. Fatah is content to take its time. Hamas and Hizbullah want that timeline compressed into as short a period as possible. Tanzim and the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade are both more militant in their destructive tendencies.

In the mid-term, the Palestinians actually have more to worry about from those same terrorist groups as they could easily derail the planned elections, which the Fatah leadership is quite willing to delay because they fear they're going to lose the elections anyway. Abu Mazen and his cronies can't keep the terrorists in check, can't clamp down on the territories they control, and can't get the basic infrastructure to work, so the Palestinians are in a physically worse position than they were when Israel controlled the territories.

Olmert will likely continue Sharon's policies and may become the face of Kadima, although Sharon's presence was the glue that held Kadima together. It's unclear whether Olmert has the ability to hold the center.

UPDATE 1/5/2006:
Vodkapundit offers a pre-post mortem and wonders what will happen next.

The Scurrying Begins

Jack Abramoff's guilty plea arrangement has sent Members of Congress scurrying in a massive CYA operation. Even the White House has taken it upon itself to give monies linked to Abramoff to charity. Lots of politicians on both side of the aisle are wondering whether their campaigns took money from tainted Abramoff funds. In particular, New York's Congressional delegation has a bunch of members who took money from Abramoff, his associates and the casions they represented.

Some are giving the money back or donating it to charity.

Others aren't.

Guess who isn't giving the money back.

Charles Rangel. Democrat. Yes, that Charles Rangel. The one who's been in Congress since 1971 and is the fourth ranking member in the House.

But Democratic Rep. Charles Rangel of Harlem, the New Yorker who received the largest amount from Abramoff clients at $36,000, intends to keep the money and a Rangel spokesman said Wednesday that Abramoff's guilty pleas do not affect the congressman's decision.
As if he really needs the money? More to the point, what does this say about the scandal surrounding Abramoff and his ties to various Republicans? Is Rangel doing this to take the heat off of all of Congress or is he simply too stupid to realize that he could go down with Abramoff and the others implicated? What is his angle and why is he making this stand at this time when everyone else seems to be distancing themselves from anything having to do with Abramoff?

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Israeli Prime Minister Sharon In Grave Condition

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is in critical condition at Hadassah Hospital in Israel after being rushed to the hospital feeling ill. Sharon had suffered a minor stroke on December 18 and was scheduled to go into an Israeli hospital on Thursday for a procedure to fix a defect in his heart. Today's medical crisis is just that - a major stroke and the prognosis is grim. He's on a respirator and general anesthetic. Ehud Olmert will take over as Prime Minister, which is provided under Israeli law.

There are lots of folks blogging this at the moment, including Mere Rhetoric, who's providing regular updates.

At the time of the first medical crisis, Palestinians took to the streets in celebration of Sharon's condition. One wonders whether they will do so once again.
In Gaza, however, dozens of armed men from the Popular Resistance Committees, a small Palestinian militant group, fired guns in the air, screamed "Sharon is dead" and handed out pastries to motorists to celebrate the news that Sharon was ill.
One can only imagine what they'll do should Sharon's condition declines even further.

UPDATE:
It didn't take long for the vultures to start circling among the Palestinians. In fact, according to the New York Times, the Palestinians barely let up in their continued mayhem up and down the Gaza Strip. While Israel prays for Sharon's health, the Palestinians by and large await anxious word of Sharon's condition, knowing that some will celebrate and others will wonder what this means for them in the long run. His full recovery isn't expected. It nearly certainly means the end of Sharon's political career.

Atlas Shrugs also notes Olmert taking over as Prime Minister. Meryl Yourish notes that this is a quite abrupt end to the Sharon era. She also notes the respective glee passed forth from Hamas and the downplaying of Sharon's military brilliance in defending Israel against its enemies.

Tigerhawk notes that while Sharon's medical condition is an intensely personal battle, the repercussions are anything but. All Things Beautiful's thoughts are with Sharon, his family, and Israel.

Kesher Talk and Abracadabrah are running live updates.

Bookworm Room wonders what will become of the Israeli polity, and thinks that folks who elevated Sharon's status to one where he was the only one who could make peace with the Palestinians was greatly misplaced. Not that Sharon was the wrong person, but that the onus was on the Palestinians to make peace, not the Israelis.

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Plumbers, Leakers, and the Information Pipeline

One has to hand it to the big media outlets like the New York Times. They can simultaneously take the position that certain leaks relating to national security must be exposed for public consumption and that others are vital breaks in national security worthy of investigations and prosecutions. And never shall they meet. Yet, it is the Times itself that gets to make that decision, not the government. Curious, but the New York Times isn't mentioned in the Constitution, nor is it one of the branches of government. So, its actions in determining what to tell the public, not to mention when it decided to tell the public, are suspect as to its intentions. One has to wonder whether the leaks, and their subsequent publication has more to do with ideology than any specific program and purported civil liberties or problematic national security operations.

In the first instance, the Times and other big domestic media outlets played up the fact that Valerie Plame's name was somehow leaked to the media, and that this leak was a violation of federal law. It was surmised that the leak had to be someone high up in the Bush Administration, so that the leak would hamstring the Administration going forward. Thus far, the Fitzgerald investigation has turned up no facts substantiating that there was in fact criminal leak - only that Scooter Libby's memory is not only rusty, but contradicts the memories of a journalist and that those contradictions hampered the investigation.

This situation - the Plame Affair - even included a contempt of court charge against Judy Miller who refused to divulge her sources on the matter, and spent 85 days in jail before finally working with the prosecutor when she received 'permission' from her source to talk (and has since 'retired' from the New York Times).

Never mind the fact that Plame's name was freely available and fungible among the various journalists working the White House and intelligence community beat. Or that Plame's five year old son spilled the beans to a reporter while heading to a vacation. It just worked into the meme that the Bush Administration was overstepping its bounds and needed to be put in its place.

So, up pops the next set of leaks less than a month ago* [that's when the story was published in the NYT- which apparently sat on the story for about a year, but I'll get to that in a moment]. Only that these ones are far more egregious and serious. Someone leaked word about NSA programs designed to intercept terrorist communications to individuals here in the US to several New York Times writers, including budding author James Risen. The programs were based on work done in earlier Administrations, including a secret program called Echelon. The whole point of the NSA is to monitor conversations around the world and develop intel on those seeking to do harm to US interests worldwide. That means, if they spotted some terrorist talking on a cell phone in Kandahar, Afghanistan to a second individual in Bonn, Germany, who had three-wayed a person in the US, the NSA wants to know this information. It might even be crucial to not only ferreting out a terrorist plot against this country, but potential links to other terrorist operatives, funding and financing, as well as operational details on what and how the terrorists are planning.

Now, the Times pushed this story as one of Bush purposefully evading the law to spy on American citizens, even though the entire purpose of the program was to hone in on those individuals being contacted from overseas by known or suspected terrorists. Most Americans realized that this was an eminently sensible thing to do since the failure to connect all the dots played a role in the intel failures surrounding the 9/11 terrorist attacks, but the Times continues to press on with its story.

Yet, it was only later revealed that the Times sat on this story for more than a year, and that it rushed the story to print after one of the co-authors, James Risen, was launching his book. The Times didn't want to be scooped by its own journalist and ran the story. In turn, Risen launched his book even earlier than first indicated. Byron Calame, the NYT Public Editor was not happy with the stonewalling about the curious timing of the whole incident, not to mention the fact that no one at the Times wants to discuss the matter or answer any questions relating to the NSA story at all.

Apparently the NYT has better operational security than the NSA when it comes to leaks. Does anyone else think there's something wrong with that picture?

Others noting the discrepancies in how the media is covering leaks, whistleblowers, and classified information include Michelle Malkin, Cox and Forkum (who skewers Sen. Schumer whose appearance on the Sunday talk shows was an object lesson in splitting hairs on a bald guy, which is to say that Chuck took the clearly partisan approach instead of the legal, logical, or rational approach), and Rick Moran. Reliapundit notes that this situation is one that further exposes the anti-Administration/anti-war bias at the NYT, which has a spillover effect on both the framing of the issues, and what people learn and understand about the issues involved.

Curiously, the Left continues to somehow think that this Administration is somehow above the law. Thus far, the only folks who appear to be above the law are those individuals leaking classified information to the press.

None of the leakers have apparently engaged in any of the necessary and proper steps to being a whistleblower. There is federal law on what that entails, and going to the New York Times is clearly not a part of the process. In fact, 18 USC 798 expressly prohibits leaks of the type of classified information exploited in the New York Times articles. For those unaccustomed to legalese, here's the deal - if you break the law, you've committed a criminal act, and in this case, it's a pretty serious one. The penalty for violating this law is up to 10 years in prison and/or a fine. Not exactly a walk in the park. It's more like Federal 'pound me in the ass prison' for those Office Space fans out there.

Assuming that you want to overlook the criminal acts involved in leaking this information and instead want to focus on what actually happened, you should get out your copy of the US Constitution. Apparently reading the US Constitution, which clearly gives the President the power to conduct war, is deemed insufficient by the Left to conduct spying that is part and parcel to the prosecution of a war. Somehow taking the actions to protect this country are not part of the Executive Branch's powers under the Constitution, but the rub is that there's nothing in the US Constitution that gives those powers to anyone else either. Congressional oversight, which isn't mandated in the US Constitution was undertaken by the Administration when dealing with the FISA courts and in those cases where the Administration believed that it did not have time to go before the court because of expediency and relevancy of the intel gathering. No where can anyone point out where and how the President clearly broke the law. It surely isn't a violation of the Constitution to take prudent action to protect and defend the United States from enemies foreign and domestic. After all, on 9/11 the terrorists exploited intel failures to kill more than 3,000 people.

Instead, we're seeing the NYT leading a not-so-whispering campaign to try and persuade people into believing that the Administration lied, exceeded its Constitutional and legal authority by having the NSA doing what is was mandated to do all along (to spy on our enemies). They've called upon some legal experts who say that the Administration broke the law, but if it were so clear cut, every legal expert out there would conclude that this Administration did something wrong, and that it would cross party lines.

That simply isn't the case. Numerous constitutional and legal scholars have come out on both sides of the controversy, which lends credence to the fact that reasonable minds can differ on the interpretation of the various laws involved, but it isn't so clear cut that there was any actual wrongdoing. Some, like Mark Levin point out that this is clearly part of the President's constitutional powers. Others, like Orin Kerr, think that the President may have run afoul of the FISA statutes, but even there, there's disagreement over who and what was involved. It's a fact specific inquiry, and given that we're dealing with a post 9/11 world, do we really want to side with the group that seeks to purposefully and deliberately limit the nation's ability to spy on terrorists around the world, especially those who contact individuals within the US because of some perceived threat to civil liberties?

Iran's Shopping Spree Continues

As I've previously noted, it doesn't matter how we've arrived at this particular point in time with respect to Iran's imminent joining the nuclear gang, but does anyone at the IAEA actually pay attention to these things?

Just wondering - as Iran was apparently able to buy nearly everything it needed to develop the technologies behind enriching uranium on the open market.
The assessment declares that Iran has developed an extensive web of front companies, official bodies, academic institutes and middlemen dedicated to obtaining - in western Europe and the former Soviet Union - the expertise, training and equipment for nuclear programs, missile development and biological and chemical weapons arsenals.

"In addition to sensitive goods, Iran continues intensively to seek the technology and know-how for military applications of all kinds," it says.

The document lists scores of Iranian companies and institutions involved in the arms race. It also details Tehran's growing determination to perfect a ballistic missile capable of delivering warheads far beyond its borders.

It says Iran hopes to develop a space program but is concentrating on upgrading and extending the range of its Shahab-3 missile, which has a range of 1200 kilometres, capable of reaching Israel.

The next generation of the Shahab ("shooting star" in Persian) should be capable of reaching Austria and Italy.
And why is the Guardian promoting the 'neocon agenda', as the Leftists in the US are fond of saying every time the argument for taking action against rogue states comes up?

The Belgravia Dispatch puts an assault on the Iranian nuclear facilities somewhere in the range of 10-15% in 2006. Confederate Yankee thinks it is much higher. Others aren't quite so sure that any of this will come to pass.

Iran will be frightningly close to having a bomb in 2006 and will continue with the fire and brimstone speeches ad nauseum, but wont declare until 2007 that they've got the bomb, and at least 25 others. Having a single bomb isn't enough to go to war, or to deter a country like Israel or the US taking direct action. 25 bombs may be enough to be a sufficient deterrent given that those bombs may be dispersed throughout the country and/or mated with missiles or other delivery devices for use.

In any case, the window for action is closing quickly, and no one appears willing or capable of stepping up to shut down the Iranian threat.

Meanwhile, Jeff Goldstein got a hold of one of Ahmadinejad's to-do lists, and it isn't pretty. It isn't far from the truth either given Ahmadinejad's rantings and ravings.

UPDATE:
Stephen Green has a memo for Old Europe. To cut to the chase, Green thinks that Old Europe should shut their collective pie-holes and let the US engage Iran in its own brand of diplomacy considering that the European model of diplomacy has put us on the precipice of Iran's nuclear armament.

And Austin Bay concurs.

Two... Two Billion Dollars

Pretty soon we'll start talking real money here. Supposedly New York State will have a $2 billion surplus entering the new fiscal year that starts April 1.

I don't buy it.

Not in the slightest.

Every year, Pataki, Silver, and Bruno do a kabuki dance on what the final numbers are going to be. And every year the final tally ends up being far higher than the initial numbers, even though there isn't a shred of truth to any of it.

New York runs a structural deficit. The so-called surplus is what happens when the economy grows and tax revenues come in higher than projected. Everyone in Albany salivates at the opportunity to spend this money, even though this money should all be accounted for - in the form of debt payments, shoring up the pension funds, and putting the money in rainy-day funds. If you want to be more ambitious, you could put the money towards retiring debt, giving rebates to taxpayers, or even lowering some taxes and fees, but I'm not counting on that.

Crushing Blow

All those earlier news reports that 12 of the 13 miners trapped in a West Virginia coal mine were found alive turned out to be wrong. 11 of the 12 miners were found dead, and the 12th miner was in critical condition this morning.

People are wondering how the hell the news could have gotten this wrong. I'm sure someone will look into that - when the inevitable lawsuits are filed and the parties are in the discovery phase.

Someone made a horrible mistake in transcribing conversations with search and rescue teams inside the mine and that mistake was compounded when it was relayed to the families. Just who exactly did relay that information and whether they were in a position to do so will also need to be investigated. It's quite likely an honest mistake, but one with an unusually cruel outcome.

Investigators will need to determine whether there were health and safety violations that played a role in the accident.

What doesn't change is that these miners died in a coal mining accident. My thoughts and prayers go out to the families and friends of those killed at the Sago mine in Tallmansville, WV.

Tuesday, January 03, 2006

The Battle For Ground Zero, Part 83

Eliot Spitzer v. John Whitehead threatens the long term rebuilding prospects at Ground Zero. Spitzer appears to be the frontrunner to be the next Governor, which means that Whitehead would likely be tossed aside by the next administration in New York.

The problem is that Spitzer may have committed a crime by personally threatening Whitehead. The details are murky and have a he-said, he-said milieu to them, but Steve Cuozzo notes what this means for Downtown:
Spitzer's reported threatening of John Whitehead, the chairman of the Lower Manhattan Development Corp., has been properly denounced as an unconscionable attack on a man of unquestioned personal integrity. But much more is at stake: the future of Downtown, whose destiny would fall largely into Spitzer's hands should he succeed Gov. Pataki in office.

In contrast to the spent and demoralized Pataki administration, the next governor will be itching to get a grip on the stalled redevelopment agenda. He might or might not buy into Pataki's master plan, his commitment to leaseholder Larry Silverstein, or even to the Freedom Tower or memorial.

By denying Whitehead's painfully plausible account of a phone conversation last spring, Spitzer has, in effect, called the central public figure in Downtown redevelopment for the past four years a liar.
Whitehead has been the one constant at the LMDC over the past four years. Many other leaders have come and gone, including Kevin Rampe and even Daniel Libeskind himself, but Whitehead has been through the ringer and still managed to keep the LMDC plugging along.

A contractor is being sought for the first stage of the memorial construction - to pour the foundations. Take Back The Memorial (TBTM) isn't happy with the situation, given that the size and scope of the memorial continues to be downsized. It only recently came to light that the memorial fountains will not operate year round because of issues with the water freezing. The memorial planners didn't anticipate the costs of running the system year round with heated water, so they've scaled back the water feature to be used only during warm weather. So TBTM went with an op-ed in the NY Daily News, which garnered some interesting responses. Money is an obvious factor in the design and construction, but issues that were apparently worked out previously are now being reevaluated and deemed unworkable. More is going on behind the scenes than meets the eye.

Meanwhile, someone finally realized that counter-terror aid should be distributed according to need, not on a per-capita basis or due to political connections. New York City will definitely benefit from this decision as will those designated municipalities as long as they make the list for two consecutive years.

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Tick Tick Tick

Just in case the seriousness of the situation didn't get your attention, let's lay this out for you in black and white.

Iran is going to get the nuclear materials necessary to build nuclear weapons, regardless of what the UN or the IAEA says or does. Iran is going to join the nuclear weapons club sooner rather than later. On this, there is no doubt. They have the equipment necessary to enrich uranium and they're going to produce the enriched uranium in quantities necessary to build nuclear weapons. It is only a matter of time before they announce to the world that they've gone nuclear.

And Iran is run by a bunch of unhinged and deranged leaders who would sacrifice their entire country's population if only to start Armageddon. This isn't a situation where the US and Soviet Union knew that they were dealing with mostly rational folks at the controls of the bombs and missiles facing them.

Iran has publicly and repeatedly declared that they will use nuclear weapons against their enemies. Israel is only one of the named enemies. But Israel is far from the only one. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and pretty much every nation within 1,000 miles is a target.

It doesn't really matter how we got to this point, but we must deal with the situation as it is now - a nation that is hellbent on acquiring nuclear weapons is on the threshold of obtaining that capability and they've got itchy trigger fingers.

UPDATE:
Ace and The Jawa Report both pick up the fact that the Iranians are going to be resuming their nuclear programs at the Natanz nuclear facility. Ace properly notes that nothing short of military force is going to dissuade Iran from getting the bomb. They've already committed themselves to this course of action, and they're further complicating matters by working on putting those nuclear bombs that they'll soon have on those missiles I've been warning about for a while now.

Palestinian Terrorists Gunning For Israeli Nuclear Facilities

A Gaza Strip man admitted that he and other terrorists planned to blow themselves up in simultaneous attacks at Israel's nuclear reactor and other sites, it was disclosed yesterday.
Ramzi Salah, 22, was caught about two weeks ago — wearing a bomb belt — near the Negev Desert kibbutz of Nir-Am, officials said.

In his confession, withheld until a court appearance yesterday in Beersheva, Salah said he intended to carry out a homicide-bomb attack in the Israeli city of Ashkelon.

But Salah, of Jabaliya, added that other members of the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade planned to blow themselves up at the heavily-guarded nuclear reactor at Dimona.
Don't think for a moment that the danger has passed since these individuals were captured. There are more terrorists from where this bunch came from. Of course, the danger from these suicide bombers affects not just the material structures themselves, but those that work at the facilities. Killing the scientists who operate and manage the Israeli nuclear program would be a significant hit against Israel's strategic capabilities.

Keelhaul All of Them

Jack Abramoff is a lobbyist who took liberties with the law. So did a bunch of politicians on both sides of the aisle who dealt with him. All should be referred for criminal prosecution.
Lobbyist Jack Abramoff will plead guilty to federal charges in Washington and Miami, clearing the way for him to cooperate in a massive government investigation of influence peddling involving members of Congress, lawyers said Tuesday.

As part of the deal, prosecutors were filing conspiracy, fraud and tax evasion charges against the embattled lobbyist, a Justice Department official said.

Abramoff was scheduled to appear at a hearing in U.S. District Court here later Tuesday, said department spokesman Bryan Sierra. Abramoff was expected to plead guilty to three charges as part of his agreement.

Abramoff was then to plead guilty to two criminal charges in Florida stemming from a 2000 purchase of a fleet of gambling boats, said Neal Sonnett, his attorney there.

Abramoff will plead guilty to two of the six charges in a federal indictment, Sonnett said.
I have absolutely no use for criminal behavior and it is inexcusable for anyone to take money as part of an influence peddling scheme such as Abramoff developed.

Lots of powerful and influential politicians have been named in relation to Abramoff, including Tom DeLay and Charles Rangel. Anyone calling for investigations in a partisan tone wont like the outcome since it is just as likely that many of their own will be taken out behind the woodshed.

And for that reason, expect Congress to hunker down and hope that the Abramoff investigation goes away like a bad nightmare.

UPDATE:
Scrappleface skewers the scandal and got a trip to Scotland out of it and Wizbang notes that Democrats shouldn't start popping champagne (or even the cheap California stuff) just yet.

UPDATE:
Here's more on just who might be caught up in this scandal. It's a Who's Who List of American Politicians. It includes: Daschle, Dorgan and Reid, and Charles Rangel. Gotta love those Indian casinos. Money flowing everywhere, especially into the pockets of politicians.

UPDATE:
Flopping Aces has a comprehensive posting showing the extent to which that Jack Abramoff and his associates wooed Democrats. Some interesting names on that list, including Chuck Schumer, Chris Dodd, and Joe Lieberman. Don't worry as Teddy K is also on the list, along with Patty Murray (who nabbed more than 60 large), but John Kerry netted nearly $100,000.

Michelle Malkin has more as does Debbie Schlussel and Gay Patriot who has some interesting personal connections to the man, and thinks this is a double tragedy.

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