China Considering North Korean Regime Change?

The Chinese Government has been ultra-cautious in its reaction. However, since Monday, Foreign Ministry officials have started to make a point of distinguishing between the North Korean people and their Government in conversations with diplomats.

Ahead of yesterday's Security Council vote, some in Beijing argued against heavy sanctions on North Korea for fear that these would destroy what remains of a pro-Chinese "reformist" faction inside the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"In today's DPRK Government, there are two factions, sinophile and royalist," one Chinese analyst wrote online. "The objective of the sinophiles is reform, Chinese-style, and then to bring down Kim Jong-il's royal family. That's why Kim is against reform. He's not stupid."

More than one Chinese academic agreed that China yearned for an uprising similar to the one that swept away the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 and replaced him with communist reformers and generals. The Chinese made an intense political study of the Romanian revolution and even questioned president Ion Iliescu, who took over, about how it was done and what roles were played by the KGB and by Russia.

Mr Kim, for his part, ordered North Korean leaders to watch videos of the swift and chaotic trial and execution of Ceausescu and his wife, Elena, the vice-prime minister, as a salutary exercise.

The balance of risk between reform and chaos dominated arguments within China's ruling elite. The Chinese have also permitted an astonishing range of vituperative internet comment about an ally with which Beijing maintains a treaty of friendship and co-operation. Academic Wu Jianguo published an article in a Singapore newspaper - available online in China - bluntly saying: "I suggest China should make an end of Kim's Government."

I'm skeptical of the report that the Chinese are considering a regime change of L'il Kim in North Korea. I don't think they're ready to assume the fallout from any such move (pun fully intended).

It is interesting, however, that you're seeing different opinions on what to do about North Korea coming from Chinese sources. It suggests that they don't quite know how to proceed either, and Kim is exploiting this to its full advantage.

UPDATE:
Don Surber notes that the Chinese regime change option is something that we our CIA would not be able to contemplate due to restrictions on regime change.

Dean Esmay notes that there wouldn't be much of an international outcry over China taking such action. Substituting an evil regime with one that is slightly less evil is better than letting this regime continue to develop nuclear weapons, and proliferate them to the highest bidder.

Others blogging: Flopping Aces, Dan Riehl, Blue Crab Boulevard, and Sundries Shack.

UPDATE:
Is North Korea making preparations for another nuclear test detonation? That appears to be the case according to the latest data.

U.S spy satellites have detected "suspicious vehicle movements" that could be preparations for another test near the site where North Korea conducted its first underground nuclear explosion test on Oct. 9, ABC News said, quoting unidentified U.S. officials.

NBC News also reported unidentified U.S. officials as saying U.S. spy satellites are picking up signs of truck and people movements.

The news reports came after the United States officially confirmed earlier Monday for the first time that Pyongyang carried out a nuclear test on Oct. 9 in northeastern North Korea, thus also effectively confirming Pyongyang's possession of nuclear weapons.

Technorati: north korea, nuclear, nuclear weapon, fizzle, china, kim jong il, six party talks, bush, DPRK.