Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell Revisited

Violence tests ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. Well, if there is ongoing shooting between Israel and Hizbullah doesn't that mean that there is no ceasefire, but everyone is pretending that these individual acts of violence are not connected to the spirit of the conflict.

Syria also refuses to accept any UN forces patrolling the Lebanese border with Syria:
Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar Assad rejected the U.N. deployment along Syria's borders with Lebanon, saying such a move would create animosity between the two countries.

"This is an infringement on Lebanese sovereignty and a hostile position," Assad said in an interview with Dubai Television to be aired later Wednesday.
Actually, patrolling the border would improve Lebanese territorial integrity and sovereignty, by cutting off Hizbullah's weapons and equipment shipments across the border. Syria is clearly worried that its ability to influence Lebanon would be curtailed if its activities along the border are detected by even the UN forces that might be deployed to the region.

Lebanon wants the US to pressure Israel into lifting the blockade and wants the US to provide aid to the Lebanese reconstruction. Never mind that Lebanon tolerated Hizbullah for the past six years, and did nothing to enforce UN SCR 1559, including disarming Hizbullah during that time. Now, that Israel has damaged infrastructure used by Hizbullah all through South Lebanon and is maintaining a presence to prevent Hizbullah's resupply until an international force of sufficient strength replaces them, the Lebanese government wants the US to pay to rebuild.

The US has to weigh the situation carefully. If the US does nothing, Iranian influence might increase even further, beyond what Hizbullah had managed to cultivate in the past six years. Iranian influence includes money to rebuild those facilities damaged by Israel in its mission to destroy Hizbullah's capabilities in Lebanon. If the US does provide some aid to Lebanon, it has to be careful with how that money is disbursed so that it does not go to reconstituting Hizbullah's capabilities. It's a very thin line between the two, and I expect the US to provide monetary aid to Lebanon at some point.

Indeed, relief agencies are finding it difficult to provide aid in Lebanon to groups there because of all the ties to Hizbullah. Hizbullah created its own little dominion in South Lebanon and since it is part of the Lebanese government, those ties make it difficult for any aid to come from the US because federal law prohibits any money to flow to terrorist groups on the State Department list.

Meanwhile, an Israeli Arab was arrested for passing security information to Hizbullah.
Mahmoud Khatib, a 41-year-old resident of the village of Rajar - whose territory is divided by the Israel-Lebanon border - was arrested by the Shin Bet and police on suspicion of passing security information to Hezbollah, military censors revealed Wednesday.

During questioning, Khatib admitted to maintaining telephone contact with a Hezbollah operative for a period of eight months. The correspondence between the two men ended last month.

Security officials allege that the suspect provided the Hezbollah contact with information on the Israel Defense Forces' activities in the region, including its security procedures and the means it employs to carry out inspections at the checkpoint which lies at the entrance to the village.
A new terrorist organization, although most likely an offshoot of an existing Islamic terror group, has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of two FoxNews reporters in Gaza. Some suspect that the group is related to al Qaeda.

UPDATE:
The situation in Lebanon remains explosive. Now that's understatement in a headline.
Olmert's tough stance on the blockade appeared to be an attempt to pressure the international community to speed the dispatch of a vanguard of the 15,000-strong force of international peacekeepers called for by the cease-fire agreement.

Sporadic violence has marked the U.N.-brokered cease-fire that took hold Aug. 14 and ended 34 days of ferocious fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. But the truce has held thus far.

The cease-fire was tested Wednesday when the Israeli army fired artillery into a disputed border region in response to what it said was an attack from inside Lebanon.
Again, how is this a ceasefire when Hizbullah and Israel continue firing at each other?

Syria says that it will shut its borders with Lebanon if UN forces deploy on the border. That's one threat I want to see Syria carryout. Syria has been a provocateur in this entire ordeal in Lebanon, and their ongoing support for Hizbullah should not be overlooked. Also, the Lebanese military has deployed several brigades to the border, which makes one wonder just what have they been doing for all these years and it also suggests that the Lebanese military might now be in a position to control the flow of support and materials for Hizbullah now that Israel forces have diminished Hizbullah's capacity in South Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the Palestinians have once again turned out to be the biggest losers in the latest round of fighting with Israel. Hamas continues to hold Gilad Shalit even as Israel reconsiders the idea of disengagement from the West Bank after seeing just how swimmingly that went with Gaza and Lebanon. Gaza continues to be surrounded by Israeli forces who continue to run operations in Gaza rolling up terror cells.

Land that might otherwise have gone to the Palestinians may very well end up remaining in Israel's possession because the Palestinians have again never failed to miss an opportunity. Amir Taheri thinks that this is the wrong strategy since it could play into Iran's hands by further radicalizing the Palestinians, but I think that the security situation is such that the Israelis have realized that they cannot trust the Palestinians with any territory as long as terrorists operate from them with impunity and cover from the entity in nominal control of the area - the Palestinian Authority.

People are continuing to question Olmert's conduct of the war and some are calling for him to step down. There are real good questions over how the Israelis managed this conflict, and I think the biggest mistake was not taking the bold moves and driving to the Litani and Lebanon/Syria border from the outset of the fight, instead playing a waiting game and dithering on the decision to go for the Litani. Those decisions will be studied by tacticians and strategists for years to come as this fight against a guerilla/paraprofessional military outfit may be the shape of wars to come. The Israeli government will also investigate their prosecution of the war.

The Islamic terrorist group that is holding two FoxNews journalists are demanding the release of all Muslims from US detention. The Jerusalem Post has more.
"We are going to exchange the Muslim female and male prisoners in American jails in return for the prisoners that we have. We are going to give you 72 hours beginning midnight tonight to take your decision," Ramattan quoted the kidnappers' statement as saying.

The group did not say what would happen if the deadline passed unanswered, Ramattan reported.

"If you implement and meet our condition, we will fulfill our promise. If not, wait, and we are going to wait," the statement said.
Where have we seen this before? If the US or Israel complies with these threats, that only sets the stage for more kidnapping and ransom demands that become increasingly dangerous for the West.

Bloggers to check in with for daily updates are Blue Crab Boulevard, Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, Hot Air, Jameel at the Muqata, Greetings from the French Hill, R'Lazer, and Live from an Israeli Bunker. Check back with them regularly for updates.

UPDATE:
The Islamic terrorists, who call themselves the Holy Jihad Brigade, holding the two FoxNews journalists, Steve Centanni and Olaf Wiig, provided a 72 hour deadline for the US meeting their demands of releasing all Muslim prisoners. Does it truly matter what name this particular group of sociopaths call themselves? All these groups seek to impose their version of Islam on the rest of us, and will kill anyone standing in their way, including other Muslims.

The US has said that its policy is not to negotiate with terrorists. Funny, but isn't that what the world forced Israel to essentially do by foisting a ceasefire on Israel as it was dismantling Hizbullah's terror operations in South Lebanon by force after years of looking the other way did nothing to dissuade Hizbullah from turning South Lebanon into Hizbullahland. I sense a double standard and as Meryl Yourish would say, we're operating on Israeli double standard time.

Michelle Malkin weighs in on the kidnapping and the media coverage. Flopping Aces notes the hideous comments about the kidnap victims from the 'sophisticates' at Huffpo.

The Jawa Report has running updates.

Others blogging this latest Islamic jihad act: Patterico, Hot Air, Dr. Sanity, discarded lies, and Suitably Flip.

UPDATE:
Israeli forces once again entered Gaza in the ongoing search for Gilad Shalit and now the two kidnapped US journalists. The Israelis detained a Hamas leader and his brother was apparently killed concurrently:
Israeli forces killed a Palestinian and detained a senior member of the governing Hamas movement in a raid in southern Gaza early on Thursday, witnesses said.

Family members said the dead man was the brother of Younis Abu Daqqa, the detained Hamas member.

Witnesses said Israeli commandos clashed with Palestinian gunmen during the raid on a house and that an Israeli helicopter fired two missiles. The Israeli army said it could confirm activity in the area but had no other details.

The raid near the town of Khan Younis was part of an Israeli air and ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, launched in late June after militants including Hamas gunmen abducted an Israeli soldier in a cross-border attack.

Abu Daqqa is a well-known Hamas leader in southern Gaza. Family members identified the dead brother as Youssef Abu Daqqa, 50. It was unclear how he died.
Vital Perspective has more on the running negotiations between Hamas and Fatah over how they should formulate a government. Hamas wants all the key positions, and Fatah isn't willing to concede anything so things continue to be dragged out.

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