The Unthinkable

Has the unthinkable already happened? Has Iran gone nuclear and the world given a short shrug in response? Memri has translated some Iranian reports and it lends credence to the possibility that Iran has had a nuclear birth.

The Iranian news service Al-Borz, which is known to have access to sources in the Iranian government, predicted that on the first anniversary of Iranian President Ahmadinejad's government, in late August 2006, Ahmadinejad is expected to announce what the news service called Iran's "nuclear birth."

In addition, an August 23, 2006 article about Iran's reply to the incentives proposal, that was posted on the Iranian Foreign Ministry-affiliated website www.tehrantimes.com , implied that Iran's nuclear technology had already reached the point of no return: "... If the West is seeking to impede Iran's nuclear industry, it should realize that Iran has passed this stage."(1)

There's no way to know whether this refers to the nuclear weapons program, or whether it relates to the goal of enriching uranium via its centrifuge systems. This report is reinforced by other news reports that suggest that Iran has figured out the problems with its enrichment program.

In either case, this is nothing but really bad news, since producing weapons grade uranium is a function of time and the addition of more centrifuges to enrich uranium from the levels used for civilian purposes to weapons grade. If the Iranians have figured out the centrifuge problems that had plagued their program, then ramping up development of expansion of their nuclear program is limited only by the ability to secure the additional parts or production of the necessary equipment.

With the UN completely incapable of doing anything to stop Iran and a 'coalition' is fractured over the possibility of sanctions to stop Iran, it seems that Iran will be unfettered to achieve its goals. It appears inevitable that Iran will go nuclear sooner rather than later.

UPDATE:
Congress has found that the U.S. intelligence community isn't sufficiently capable of assessing Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities and its intentions for developing weapons of mass destruction. Well, that isn't all that surprising. No one on the planet has any clue just how far along the Iranians are in their desire to obtain nuclear weapons. They could already have one or they're still a few years away. The problem is that Iran's intent is quite clear, as is their express purpose to obtaining them for use on Iran's enemies, including Israel and the US.

"A special concern is major gaps in our knowledge of Iranian nuclear, biological, and chemical programs," it said.

"Iran is a serious security threat on which the United States needs better intelligence," the report said, citing the need for more thorough and timely analysis of political, economic and other developments in Iran and improved coordination and information-sharing among U.S. intelligence agencies.

More Persian-speaking staffers in intelligence agencies and stronger counter-intelligence efforts also were recommended.

The 29-page report, submitted to committee Chairman Peter Hoekstra, a Michigan Republican, and senior Democrat Jane Harman of California, was accompanied by a classified document detailing the U.S. intelligence community's shortcomings.

The report comes amid concern Iran is aiding terrorism in Iraq and helping Hizbollah stage missile attacks on Israel from southern Lebanon.

Israel has repeatedly found Iranian markings on weapons recovered in South Lebanon from their battles with Hizbullah terrorists. Iranian soldiers have been found working in conjunction with Hizbullah, including providing technical assistance in launching missiles against Israel.

Others noting the current situation with Iran: Hot Air and The Political Pit Bull. Both bloggers note the possibility that the push to impose a ceasefire on Israel was with this scenario in mind, and note the naivete of such a move in the face of a ideologically guided opponent whose calling is the ultimate genocide of their enemies unless they submit to their form of Islam. Trying to sort through the possibilities is akin to trying to play 3-d Chess against Spock.