Egypt’s Descent in to the Heart of Darkness

Madness, power, and no good outcome on immediate horizon.

The military’s removal of President Mohammad Morsi opened up a can of worms from which the Egyptian polity is not likely to recover from anytime soon.

Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood had been busy attempting to impose its socio-political will on a nation that was largely unwilling to go along with their agenda. The military was even more reluctant since it saw Morsi’s actions as destabilizing.

So, instead of waiting until new elections, the military did what it’s done repeatedly over the past 60 years. It’s deposed the existing regime and supplanted it with one favorable to its own agenda. After all, Nasser came to power in a coup. Sadat came to power from a coup. Mubarak came to power with the assent of the military, and the military then deposed Mubarak. Now, they’re facing an organized and militarized threat in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Brotherhood is not backing down and yesterday’s clashes with police and security forces left more than 500 dead and thousands injured.

It’s only going to get worse from here because the Brotherhood’s leadership now believes that they have no other options in the political arena. The military’s effort showed the Brotherhood that they will not be allowed to wield political power, and that’s infuriating to the group, which actually won the right to govern in the historic elections following the coup that deposed Mubarak.

But what the Brotherhood doesn’t understand is that their heavy-handed wielding of political power was not without consequences. It was tremendously unpopular with a majority of Egyptians who saw it as an effort to impose social restrictions at a time when the economy continued to suffer from the very problems that led to Mubarak’s ouster.

The Brotherhood wasn’t dealing with the underlying economic and social conditions that led to an anemic economy, high unemployment, food shortages, and high costs for fuel and food.

The military’s brutal crackdown against the Brotherhood’s protest camps across Cairo forestalls any kind of reconciliation as the lines in the sand have been drawn. The Brotherhood isn’t going to trust the military or attempts to bring it back into a political process, when their leader remains arrested and out of power. The military is losing in this as well, given that they overthrew a sitting government.

Worst of all, Egyptians are losing out because the political chaos is exacerbating the economic chaos and conditions are only going to get worse. Extremists are going to take advantage of the situation.

All of this presents huge challenges for foreign countries in trying to deal with the chaotic situation in Cairo. For the US, it means trying to remain above the fray but condemning the violence and a need to return to a political dialog. Critics of the Administration claim that it lost Egypt, but that ignores that the Brotherhood and the Egyptian military are the ones who brought this crisis upon itself. The US has little influence to play here, except perhaps as a mediator. The one area that the US has influence is on providing foreign assistance and military aid - withholding that aid could get the military to buy into reconciliation talks. But the Brotherhood isn’t going to go along with a deal that doesn’t end with Morsi back in the presidency.

So, until the sides see the futility of the continuing violence and shrink away from an open civil war, they will continue to run up the body count

Turmoil In Pakistan: Supreme Court Ousts Prime Minister Gilani

Pakistan's political situation has been anything but serene since Pervez Musharaf lost power. Yousuf Raza Gilani was elected Prime Minister but he's run afoul of the Supreme Court once again for failing to investigate and prosecute claims of corruption against Asif Ali Zardari, the country's president.

Today, the court essentially booted him from office.

Local television news stations said leaders of the ruling Pakistan People’s Party were huddled in an emergency meeting and seemed poised to accept the court’s decision and nominate a different leader to the prime minister’s spot, diffusing some of the tension.

“Yousuf Raza Gilani has been disqualified from the membership of parliament from April 26, which is the date of his conviction, and he has also ceased to be the prime minister of Pakistan,” Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry read from the court order, according to reports by Geo news and other television channels.

“The election commission shall issue a notice of disqualification and the president is also required to take all necessary steps to ensure the continuation of democratic process in the country.”

But the Associated Press quoted Fawad Chaudhry, an aide to Gilani, saying that Gilani would continue his duties and only the parliament could disqualify the prime minister.

Legal experts were debating whether the disqualification could render moot Gilani’s legislative activity since April 26, including passage of Pakistan’s budget. Some said the court’s decision probably would invalidate at least some of Gilani’s actions over the past eight weeks.

“The prime minister should have left his office back in April, when he was convicted for contempt of court, but he decided to stick to his slot illegally,” retired judge Wajihuddin Ahmed told Geo TV. He said that he thought Gilani’s “day-to-day government affairs” work would likely stand but that other official acts could be declared invalid.

Gilani’s conviction stemmed from his adamant refusal to pursue money-laundering and kickback cases brought by Swiss authorities against Zardari; he faced up to six months in prison but was never sentenced.

This also throws the US-Pakistan relationship into limbo as well as counter terrorism efforts in the frontier provinces. The PPP will try to maintain a veneer of normalcy but this is anything but normal.

All the political turmoil adds to an unstable political and economic situation, including power shortages and riots, and ongoing terrorism in the frontier provinces. The government has been ineffective to resolve any of the issues confronting it.

London Burning; Hundreds Rioting With Businesses and Cars Torched Across City

Three days of rioting is leaving its mark, and the Metropolitan Police (Scotland Yard) is looking to deploy more than 10,000 police to quell the rioting. There's even word that the government will send in the Army to stop the protests.

At the same time, the police said they had launched a murder inquiry after a 26-year-old man, who was not identified by name, was shot and killed in a car in Croydon, south of London, late Monday as rioters torched and looted buildings — the first known fatality since the unrest began in another part of the city on Saturday.

Mr. Cameron spoke after cutting short a vacation in Tuscany to return home as violence convulsed at least eight new districts in the metropolitan area late Monday and early Tuesday and broke out for the first time in other locations including Britain’s second-largest city, Birmingham.

Coming after a cascade of crises, the measures announced by Mr. Cameron seemed to represent a bid to restore some appearance of official authority after nights of chaos and near-anarchy with rioters taunting or outmaneuvering the police, raiding stores and torching buildings.

This is a black eye on the government with the 2012 Olympics just a year away. Some of the businesses near Olympic sites have been hit by rioters.

And there's word that the rioting has spread to other cities as well.

So, what started the riots? Well, it appears to be traced back to the death of a suspected drug dealer at the hands of police. Yet, the riots went from being one of protest about the death to a general riot for the sake of rioting and copycatting. Some are also tracing the protests to cuts in various programs as part of the government's austerity package to bring the government spending in line with receipts.

The riots appeared to have little unifying cause — though some involved claimed to oppose sharp government spending cuts, which will slash welfare payments and cut tens of thousands of public sector jobs through 2015.

Others appeared attracted simply by the opportunity for violence. "Come join the fun," shouted one youth, racing along a street in the east London suburb of Hackney, where shops were attacked and cars torched.

Rioters were left virtually unchallenged in several neighborhoods and able to plunder from stores at will or attempt to invade homes. Restaurants and stores fearful of looting closed early across London.

Expect the damage to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars before all is said and done - as businesses close in fear of damage and people attempt to recover from damage done to their properties.

Sectarian Violence Erupts In Egypt After Church Torched; 11 Dead

Christians protesting the torching of a Church in Cairo were attacked by mobs of Muslims, and the ensuing mayhem left 11 people dead and 90 injured.

The clashes broke out Tuesday night when a Muslim mob attacked thousands of Christians protesting against the burning of a Cairo church last week. Muslims torched the church amid an escalation of tensions between the two religious groups over a love affair between a Muslim and a Christian that set off a violent feud between the couple's families.

The officials said Wednesday that the killed were six Christians and five Muslims, all died from gunshot wounds. They said 94 people were wounded - 73 Muslims and 21 Christians.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

Pro Khadafi Forces Fail To Recapture Key Towns; Fighting Continues; Death Toll 6,500+?

Mumar Khadafi's loyalists and hired thugs were unable to retake a key town near Tripoli despite attacking from several different directions.

Forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi tried to retake a town near the capital that is in opposition control but were repelled, an opposition leader in the town told CNN Tuesday.

Pro-Gadhafi troops with tanks and anti-aircraft guns attacked Zawiya from both east and west as night fell Monday, but did not capture the town, a short drive from the capital Tripoli, the source said.

Zawiya is calm Tuesday, but Gadhafi's troops remain outside it, the opposition leader and another source in the town said. CNN is not naming them to protect their safety.

In London, meanwhile, the Libyan embassy said it was siding with the opposition, condemning what it called "all acts of murder and terror " taking place in their homeland.

More European countries and companies froze assets belonging to Gadhafiand his family. Austria's central bank said it was freezing all assets held by the family, while Germany said it was freezing two million euros ($2.76 million) belong to one of Gadhafi's sons, without specifying which.

Khadafi continues to dismiss the international pressure on his regime, the fact that his diplomatic corps has deserted him, the army has largely abandoned him, and that his loyalists are being outnumbered to the point where he needs to bring in mercenaries.

Perhaps Khadafi thinks that his stature is enhanced by standing up to the West, but this isn't about standing up to the West, it's about the brutal crackdown against his own countrymen. He's far from being loved in his own country, and while those involved in his cult of personality are playing into his deranged worldview, the number of people formerly involved with his regime continues to grow (via BBC):

#
1423: Libya's two state television channels have been broadcasting programmes and phone-ins expressing support and allegiance for Col Gaddafi, BBC Monitoring reports. They have also shown pictures of families receiving the payouts announced by the government recently, and denied a military aircraft crashed near Misrata. The state newspaper al-Jamhariya is meanwhile reporting on a US-led conspiracy against national unity.
#
1418: Staff Brig Gen Mansour Mohammed Abu Hajar, head of the Libyan army's armoured vehicles and infantry division in Benghazi, has told al-Arabiya that he and the division's personnel have joined the rebels. "[We] announce our joining of this blessed revolution, which we hope God Almighty will grant success and victory. We denounce the killing and the extermination of defenceless youths by the security brigades and hired mercenaries. I and all the division's personnel put ourselves at the disposal of this glorious revolution," he says.

Khadafi is busy trying to shroud this situation in a cloak of conspiracies against his regime, which all but ignores the plight of the Libyan people and the brutal way his government has cracked down against protesters demanding more rights, economic opportunities, and freedoms. The Army's defections show just how great the disconnect is between Khadafi and his people.

Meanwhile, the nuclear disarmament deal carried out under President Bush takes on renewed significance considering the perilous security situation. There are still concerns over Libya's chemical weapons inventory, but thus far there have been no indications that those items have been moved or dispersed.

UPDATE:
The NY Times reports on Khadafi whitewashing reports of protests and uprisings in Tripoli, including the actual use of paint to cover anti-Khadafi graffiti in the city ahead of journalists gaining access with minders in tow.

UPDATE:
To keep track of what's going on and where, the NY Times has a great feature showing updates by country.

UPDATE:
According to sources available to Gulf News, the death toll from fighting in Libya and the ongoing protests is more than 6,500.

UPDATE:
The U.N. General Assembly has suspended Libya from its seat on the 47-member Human Rights Council. However, the Security Council has ruled out the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya for the time being.

Khadafi's Regime Under Assault as Protests Spread To Oman

Mumar Khadafi's regime continues to come under a withering assault from those who have defected from the regime (which includes the diplomatic corps, much of the Army, and tribal groups across the country). Despite the fact that it appears that the number of Khadafi loyalists is dwindling and he's increasingly reliant on mercenaries and paid thugs to carry out his deranged attempt to stay in power by murdering his countrymen to retain power in Tripoli, Khadafi and his sons claim that the opposition is actually a tiny minority that was egged on by al Qaeda, Islamists, and the West (including the US).



There's a huge disconnect between events and what the Khadafi regime thinks is going on - and the disconnect is only going to increase the death toll since the regime's control over the country is apparently limited to not much beyond Tripoli although there are reports that Khadafi loyalists are preparing to assault a town taken over by the opposition just 30 miles from Tripoli.

Khadafi, who had resisted allowing journalists access to the country, brought in journalists to Tripoli to show them that the situation was normal, but those journalists in the western part of the country tell a different tale - one where Khadafi no longer rules. Journalists were taken to a town Zawiyah, located 30 miles from Tripoli, to show that the situation was well in hand, but those journalists saw that the opposition was firmly in control.

Sanctions by the EU and other countries isn't going to affect Khadafi's ability to increase the death toll across the country, and the UN is contemplating war crimes against the Libyan regime.

Meanwhile, protests have broken out in the Gulf country of Oman. Two protesters were killed as several thousand people demonstrated against the Omani regime.



Security forces fired tear gas and rubber bullets against the protesters, who were demanding more rights and freedoms. The Omani government attempted to fend off the demonstrations by bribing the population with a claim that thousands would be granted jobs and compensation while looking for jobs:

The nation’s ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, has so far announced the creation of 50,000 new government jobs and an unemployment program that will pay job seekers $390 per month until they find work, reports CNN.

RELATED: How absolute is Qaddafi's power? 4 key questions.

These concessions appear to have done little to quiet protesters, whose demands include an increase in power for the legislative body, although they have stopped short of calling for the resignation of Sultan Qaboos. The leader has so far replaced six cabinet members, the Guardian reports.

“We want new faces in the government and we have a long list of social reforms,” Habiba al-Hanay, a 45-year-old civil servant, told the Guardian. “We just hope he will hear us and make changes.”

The most violent protests have taken place in the industrial port city of Sohar, where thousands of demonstrators are said to have clashed with police on Sunday. There are conflicting reports as to whether police fired live ammunition or rubber bullets at demonstrators and how many people have died in the protests. Oman’s health minister said only one protester died in Sohar, but Reuters reports that doctors in Sohar’s main hospital recorded six deaths.

As we've seen in Bahrain and other countries in the Middle East, bribery isn't sufficient to quell the demonstrations - the demonstrators are demanding greater rights and political access in addition to economic opportunities.

There's a sea change going on in the Middle East, and the regimes are slowly beginning to realize the depths of despair and lack of opportunities, tied with repressive regimes with limited political opportunities has created a wholly untenable situation.

UPDATE:
Apparently Khadafi is now passing out cash in hopes of staving off the inevitable. Government minders were accompanying journalists around, so is it any surprise that the people journalists interviewed in Tripoli were repeating the government line?

Opposition Continues Consolidating Gains In Libya as Khadafi Holds On

Mumar Khadafi continues his defiant refusal to concede that he's lost control over Libya and that his country no longer wants him in power. His diplomatic corps has defected or repudiated Khadafi as a madman. The army sides with the protesters.

The only ones seemingly backing the regime are mercenaries and a core of loyalists who are more than willing to kill anyone that crosses their path. Khadafi is arming these civilian loyalists in the hopes of prolonging his regime, but the only thing that will result is prolonged chaos and turmoil.

Khadafi and his sons are living in a dream world where they think that the protests are the work of: (1) al Qaeda; (2) drugs; (3) US and the West; and not that Khadafi and his decades of brutality and failed socio-economic policies are the cause.

His sons claim that the reports of the protests are overblown and a joke, even as multiple sources indicate that the death toll is likely in the thousands.

Speaking at a news conference at the Rixos al Nasr Hotel in Tripoli, Saif al-Islam tried to play down the extent of fighting with rebels who have seized much of the country.

"Soon you will discover that what you have heard in Libya was just a big joke. A very big joke. Here in Libya we were laughing about those reports about hundreds and thousands of casualties, bombing Tripoli and Benghazi and Zawiya or whatever, about mercenaries," he said.

He went on to claim blame al-Qaida chief for the chaos in Libya.

Khadafi has refused to allow media outlets access to Tripoli, but where Khadafi's forces are no longer in control foreign journalists have confirmed that Khadafi has indeed pretty much been pushed back from the countryside and major cities to the point that only Tripoli remains in his grasp, if that.

The US has imposed sanctions all while closing its embassy and continuing efforts to help evacuate US citizens from the turmoil.

Khadafi Still Does Not Get It Even As Country Revolts Against His 40 Year Regime

After two attempts to rally his own thugs and loyalists in rambling speeches, Mumar Khadafi is now trying to bribe his way out of trouble by raising wages, increasing subsidies, and other assorted bribes.

The time to try and bribe the populace is not when pretty much the entire army has defected, tribes have sided with regime's opponents, and your loyalists have murdered the opposition en masse.

The time to do that was at the earliest stages of potential unrest.

Those efforts wont be any more successful than the violent attempts to suppress the opposition that has left hundreds, if not thousands, dead.

The New York-based Human Rights Watch has put the death toll in Libya at nearly 300, according to a partial count. Italy's Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said estimates of some 1,000 people killed were "credible." French estimates suggest some 2,000 people may have died.

Gadhafi's response to the uprising in his country has been the harshest by any Arab leader in the wave of protests that has swept the Middle East recently, toppling the presidents of Libya's neighbors Egypt and Tunisia.

In Brussels, NATO also planned to hold an emergency meeting Friday to consider the deteriorating situation in Libya. It had received no requests to intervene said it would only do so if it were given a United Nations mandate.

Khadafi's time is pretty much up, and the only one to not realize this salient fact is Khafadi and those who surround him.

His regime is pretty much in control of Tripoli, while the opposition is consolidating its control over the rest of the country.



The Obama Administration has taken a somewhat muted approach to the ongoing violence in Libya, but is consulting with France, Italy, and the UK over a course of action.

While some critics say the Obama administration has been slow to react to the deteriorating situation in Libya, the statement said Thursday's discussions were to "coordinate our urgent efforts to respond to developments and ensure that there is appropriate accountability."

"The leaders discussed the range of options that both the United States and European countries are preparing to hold the Libyan government accountable for its actions, as well as planning for humanitarian assistance," the White House statement said.

U.S. officials have said all options were under consideration, including sanctions and enforcement of a no-fly zone, to try to stop the Libyan government from attacking protesters.

A statement by the French Embassy said Obama discussed steps the United States plans to take regarding Libya in his phone call with Sarkozy.

Calls for arms embargoes and no-fly zones wont do much to quell the violence, as Khadafi's loyalists are more than capable of unleashing a bloodbath without additional arms shipments. The Libyan air force isn't reliable, particularly after several pilots have defected or deliberately crashed their planes rather than fire on the crowds.

UPDATE:
Al Jazeera is once again reporting that Khadafi loyalists have opened fire on protesters killing at least six people in Tripoli. Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets throughout the country to demonstrate against Khadafi. Those protesting in Tripoli are in grave danger considering that the city is Khadafi's last bastion.

UPDATE:
Via BBC, there are reports that one of the military airbases near Tripoli from which aircraft took off that strafed crowds has now fallen to the opposition:

#
1457: The Guardian correspondent Martin Chulov tweets from Benghazi: "The Mitiga air base is confirmed to have fallen in Tripoli. #Libya. #Ghaddafi. Planes that strafed citizens took off from here."

UPDATE:
Khadafi was again out addressing his supporters, and claimed that he would arm his loyalists to go and kill those opposed to his regime. He's still convinced that the uprising is part of a foreign conspiracy and continues to think that the West, or al Qaeda, or drugs are behind the threat to his regime.

"We can defeat any aggression if necessary and arm the people," Gaddafi said, in footage that was aired on Libyan state television on Friday.

"I am in the middle of the people.. we will fight … we will defeat them if they want … we will defeat any foreign aggression.
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"Dance … sing and get ready … this is the spirit … this is much better than the lies of the Arab propaganda," he said.

The speech, which also referred to Libya's war of independence with Italy, appeared to be aimed at rallying what remains of his support base, with specific reference to the country's youth.

His last speech, on Thursday evening had been made by phone, leading to speculation about his physical condition.

The footage aired on Friday, however, showed the leader standing above the square, waving his fist as he spoke.

No one knows for sure just how many of his supporters are out there, but there's more tangible evidence that he's brought in mercenaries to do his dirty work.

Khadafi and his son are going to get their wish if they keep up with their dead-end strategy:

Muammar Gaddafi has appeared in Tripoli's Green Square to address supporters. The embattled Libyan leader told the crowds: "We will continue to fight. We will defeat them. We will die here on Libyan soil." (See 4.54pm.) Earlier Gaddafi's son Saif vowed his family will "live and die in Libya".

• The entire Libyan mission to the UN in Geneva has quit, its second secretary calling for a moment of silence to "honour this revolution" (see 3.32pm). Most of Libya's delegation to the UN in New York had already abandoned the regime. The Libyan delegation to the Arab League in Cairo has renounced Gaddafi and condemned his attack on "unarmed citizens" (see 3.41pm). Libya's ambassadors to France and Unesco quit and condemned the violence. Prosecutor-general Abdul-Rahman al-Abbar became the latest senior official to resign and join the opposition.

• There are reports of troops firing on protesters in Tripoli (see 4.11pm and 4pm).

UPDATE:
This is a pretty fascinating (and frightening) report about an interview given by one of Khadafi's sons who happens to have been educated in London. The son, when asked if his father and the regime have a plan B if he's ousted, notes:

"We have Plan A, Plan B and Plan C. Plan A is to live and die in Libya, Plan B is to live and die in Libya, Plan C is to live and die in Libya."

Carnage Continues In Libya as Khadafi Hangs On

The carnage continues in Libya as Mumar Khadafi barely manages to hold on to power by any means necessary. That includes the use of mercenaries and a small cadre of loyalists, but those numbers are going to be insufficient to do anything more than delay the inevitable and to rack up a body count.

So, where exactly did Khadafi get a hold of these mercenaries? Well, it helps when Khadafi has been bankrolling thugs and dictators across Africa, and is able to get some payback, along with tapping a bloc of thugs who are looking for work.

Al Jazeera has reported that advertisements have been appearing in Guinea and Nigeria offering would-be mercenaries up to $2,000 to come to Qaddafi's aid. The reports are vague so far, but if the Libyan strongman has indeed been shopping for mercenaries, West Africa would be a good place to start. Recent conflicts in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and the Ivory Coast have generated a steady supply of unemployed ex-fighters willing to move from conflict to conflict for the right price. Foreign mercenaries, often paid in diamonds, kept Sierra Leone's brutal civil war going for years. U.N. peacekeepers have reported that the electorally ousted but defiant Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo has brought in mercenaries from Liberia to aid him in his conflict against internationally recognized President Alassane Ouattara.

Libyan money has helped prop up a number of unstable African regimes in recent years -- for example, Qaddafi was a longtime, enthusiastic backer of former Liberian President Charles Taylor, now on trial in The Hague for war crimes -- so it makes sense that Libyan officials would have connections in the region. As of yet, there's no reliable reporting of how or when the mercenaries there, but some Libyan activists believe that they may have been housed at training camps in southern Libya for months, anticipating an uprising.

Following tomorrow's prayers, expect that the situation in Tripoli to get a whole lot more dangerous as there are rumblings of renewed protests in the last redoubt for Khafadi and his supporters all while Khadafi's forces are being hemmed in on all sides.

A last gasp desperate measures could seriously inflate the body count, particularly if Khadafi decides to unleash some measure of his chemical weapons stocks. I don't think he'd go that route, but a bloody outcome is all but assured.

Khadafi Moves To Destroy Libya If He Can't Control It

After giving a rambling speech yesterday in which he swore to destroy the opposition to his regime and that he would fight to the last drop of blood in his body, the reports today once again exhibit just how tyranical Mumar Khadafi is.

Witnesses in the Libyan capital Tripoli say many streets were deserted Wednesday, with residents afraid to leave their homes, a day after Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi urged his supporters to attack anti-government demonstrators.

The witnesses told foreign news agencies that armed Gadhafi loyalists and mercenaries from other African nations were roaming the capital, threatening people who gather in groups and occasionally opening fire.

In Gadhafi's first televised address since an uprising against his rule began last week, he vowed to stay in power and called on supporters to fight back against opposition protesters whom he described as "gangs" and "terrorists." He threatened death for anyone who takes up arms against Libya or engages in espionage.

But, there were more signs that the Libyan leader has lost control of the eastern half of his country to protesters backed by defecting military units. Witnesses in the eastern cities of Benghazi and Tobruk say residents were in control of the streets Tuesday and celebrating their defeat of Gadhafi's forces. Benghazi residents also formed units to collect weapons and protect property.

Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said there are credible reports that about 1,000 people have been killed in Libya's week-long uprising. He also confirmed that the eastern half of Libya, known as Cyrenaica, was no longer under Gadhafi's control.

The city of Tobruk is in the hands of the anti-Khadafi forces.



So, what is driving Khadafi to engage in what is essentially a scorched earth policy? Well, it's the same thing that drives all autocrats and totalitarian regimes around the world - he wants to remain in power and wants to eliminate any signs of opposition to his regime. He surrounds himself with sycophants and people who are going to oblige his every whim, regardless of the facts on the ground. Add a culture of corruption and a cult of personality, and Khadafi's erratic actions begin to make sense.

One has to wonder whether the military will finally step in against Khadafi's loyalists and end the violent suppression of the opposition in Tripoli - ending Khadafi's regime once and for all.

Libya's regime continues to blame outside forces for the ongoing events in the country - blaming everyone from the US to al Jazeera.

Tripoli is essentially cut off from the rest of Libya, and the rest of the world for that matter. The regime is desperate to hold on to its power base, but the rest of the country is slipping from Khadafi's grasp.

Libyans and foreign nationals are trying to flee the country any way they can. They're crossing into Tunisia and Egypt by the thousands, and the US is arranging for charter boats to take US citizens to Malta.

Via the BBC, 1440: France is coming out with increasingly strong statements on Libya. Foreign affairs minister Laurent Wauquiez says the president wants France to suspend all its trade, economic and financial relations with Tripoli, adding:"To be clear, we shall not let what is happening in Libya take place with impunity."

As that goes on, the number of defections from the Libyan government continues growing. The ranks of those defecting from Khadafi's grasp include foreign diplomats, generals, ministers, and even entire army units.

UPDATE:
There are reports that a military fighter jet crashed after refusing to open fire on protesters. It's possible that the aircraft suffered a mechanical failure - there are reports that Khadafi purposefully kept the military underequipped and underfunded compared to his elite personal guard so that the army wouldn't be so much of a threat to his regime.

Or, the pilot and crew decided that it was better to sacrifice themselves rather than kill civilian protesters - and deny the regime the use of another aircraft (perhaps there wasn't sufficient fuel to leave Libyan airspace) - and the regime was purposefully limiting fuel on those planes to avoid further defections. Another possibility is that elements loyal to Khadafi shot down the aircraft that refused to open fire on the protests. New reports seem to indicate that the pilots bailed out of the planes rather than fire upon the crowds.

At the same time, reports indicate that anti-Khadafi forces are closing the noose around Tripoli.

You know things are real bad for Khadafi when none other than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says that Khadafi's crackdown is too harsh and violent. Of course, Iran has violently suppressed its own protests - both last year, and new protests that erupted in the wake (and support) of the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia.

Press TV, Iran's state-financed satellite channel, reported on Wednesday that "Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has criticized Libyan rule Muammar Qaddafi, for threatening his own people. Ahmadinejad referred to universal human rights, saying leaders should hear the voice of their people. He went on to say resistance against the demands of a nation is futile."

According to Iran's Fars news agency, which is close to the country's powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mr. Ahmadinejad also offered this advice to the leaders of Arab nations experiencing unrest: "Serve your people and stand beside the people so that people do not revolt against you."

In response to protests in Iran last week, Mr. Ahmadinejad's government used force to suppress dissent, leading to the death of at least two protesters.

Khadafi on the Ropes

A sure sign that a regime is on the ropes is that the ruling thug farms out the press duties to someone else. In Mumar Khadafi's case, he's given his son a higher profile in handling the ongoing crisis and existential threat to his 40+ year rule.

While there are rumors that Khadafi has already fled the country, I'd say that for the moment his regime is definitely on the ropes.

The tribes that make up the majority of the country's population are starting to line up in opposition to Khadafi and there are reports that Khadafi has left the capitol of Tripoli in favor of a more remote location in the country.

#
1310: Prof Aref Ali Nayed, one of Libya's most senior religious leaders and a member of one of the major tribes in Libya, the Warfla tribe, has told the BBC World Service he now expects the tribes will stand united against the government of Col Gaddafi in this crisis: "All the great tribes of Libya are united. The only thing that divided them was Gaddafi and his regime. A united Libya is a reality that is alive in our blood. That is why you see people in Tripoli taking to the streets without anything in their hands to be shot dead for the sake of their brothers and sisters in the east."
#
1308: Our correspondent adds: "Hour by hour there are reports of more defections. Almost all major tribal leaders seem to have joined the opposition, as well as important religious leaders, and several senior Libyan ambassadors. The east of the country is already almost entirely out of the hands of the government."

Hundreds of people have been killed in the protests, and the government crackdown.



Khadafi's son is vowing to fight to the last bullet, which is all but assuring a violent end to the Khadafi regime.

Government buildings are aflame in Tripoli and the violence is spreading like waves through the country.

The six-day-old uprising had reached the capital, Tripoli, where government buildings on Monday were in flames and police were noticeably absent from the streets. There were signs of growing disunity within the government and reports that several senior officials had resigned and joined the protesters.

In a rambling, disjointed address delivered about 1 a.m. on Monday, the son, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, played down the uprising sweeping the country, which witnesses and rights activists say has left more than 220 people dead and hundreds wounded from gunfire by security forces. He repeated several times that “Libya is not Tunisia or Egypt” — the neighbors to the east and west that both overthrew their veteran autocrats in the space of the last six weeks

The revolt shaking Libya is the latest and most violent turn in the rebellion across the Arab world that seemed unthinkable just two months ago and now poses the greatest threat in four decades to Colonel Qaddafi’s autocratic power. The United States condemned the Qaddafi government’s lethal use of force.

Witnesses in Tripoli interviewed by telephone on Monday said protesters had converged on the capital’s central Green Square and clashed with heavily armed riot police for several hours after Mr. Qaddafi’s speech, apparently enraged by it. Young men armed themselves with chains around their knuckles, steel pipes and machetes, as well as police batons, helmets and rifles commandeered from riot squads. Security forces moved in, shooting randomly.

UPDATE:
Things are going downhill at an accelerating rate. While there are report that the Libyan air force has opened fire on the protesters, although two fighter jets and two helicopters sought asylum in Malta.

"I am in Tripoli and not in Venezuela," he said, according to Al Arabiya television.

Gadhafi spoke hours after reports that Libyan military aircraft fired live ammunition at crowds of anti-government protesters in Tripoli on Monday.

"What we are witnessing today is unimaginable," Adel Mohamed Saleh, an activist in the capital, told Al Jazeera television. His accounts could not be independently confirmed. "Warplanes and helicopters are indiscriminately bombing one area after another. There are many, many dead.

"Our people are dying. It is the policy of scorched earth," he said.

Another man, identified only as “Victory,” told msnbc.com after touring Tripoli, “We could hear firing every 15 minutes, I don’t know from where really.”

The accounts came as deep cracks opened in Gadhafi's regime, with diplomats abroad and the justice minister at home resigning, air force pilots defecting and a fire raging at the main government hall after the clashes in the capital Tripoli. Protesters called for another night of defiance in Tripoli's main square despite the government's heavy crackdown.

Arabiya television said the Tripoli clashes Monday left 160 dead.

Human Rights Watch said Monday that at least 233 people had been killed since the protests began last week, but opposition groups put the figure much higher. Most fatalities were in Benghazi, a region where Gadhafi's grip has always been weaker than elsewhere in the oil-producing desert nation.

Days of Protest and Rage Continue Throughout Middle East and North Africa

Protests continue throughout the Middle East and North Africa, with the deadly consequences in Libya and Yemen.

Libyan protesters defy Gadhafi and his regime is struggling to put down growing protests in cities other than Tripoli. The Libyans are preparing for a day of protest against Khadafi's regime.



Bahrain mourners call for end to monarchy. The funerals today have become rallying points for opposition to the Bahraini monarchy.



There are further protests in Jordan.

Four protesters die on Yemen's 'Friday of Rage'.

Meanwhile, the situation in Iran has gotten even more complicated. There are reports that the IRGC, which is the regime's elite military cadre that has its hands in every aspect of the Iranian economy and has been considered most loyal to the regime's mullahs, has actually sought to get assurances that they will not be asked to open fire on protesters.

I'd say that's pretty significant and should give a modicum of hope to the opposition who had previously confronted a united IRGC that was more than willing to use force.

The problem is that the officers who signed that letter are most likely to be replaced/erased from their commands by the regime. They're pretty ballsy to make such demands on the regime, which showed absolutely no qualms about opening fire on the protesters last time.

If the IRGC isn't as reliable as previously believed, that means that the enforcement role may be picked up to an even greater extent by the Basij or the Iranian regime may try to shift around its troops that they know to be loyal to deal with the protesters.

That hasn't stopped the calls for opposition leader Mirhussein Mousavi to be killed and follows similar calls from the Iranian parliament for the death of those opposed to the regime.

With all the unrest in the region, Libya has called off an Arab League summit scheduled for March 29.

A week after Hosni Mubarak was deposed in Egypt, there are renewed protests and strikes, including among Suez Canal workers protesting wages and economic conditions. The problem is that the military, which sent Mubarak packing, has a vested interest in consolidating power in itself and isn't nearly as willing to make changes to the economy because it has inserted itself into nearly every area of the economy.

UPDATE:
Things are getting quite dangerous in Bahrain for mourners and journalists as military has opened fire on mourners and journalists.

A Western official quoted a witness saying that the shooters were from the military, not the police, and that protesters began dropping to the ground after the firing started.

It was not immediately clear if the army was using live ammunition or rubber bullets to fire at the crowd, mostly young men who had been part of a funeral procession for protesters killed earlier in a crackdown by police on their peaceful revolt against the government.

Minutes later, forces in a helicopter fired on a reporter and videographer who were shooting a video on the latest violence.

That earlier crackdown killed at least five people and, once again, left the Obama administration in the uncomfortable position of dealing with a strategic Arab ally locked in a showdown with its people.

On Thursday, the masses of once-peaceful protesters were transformed into a mob of angry mourners chanting slogans like “death to Khalifa,” the king, while the opposition withdrew from the Parliament and demanded that the government step down. At the main hospital following the violence, thousands gathered screaming, crying and collapsing in grief.

Military helicopters opened fire on journalists with the New York Times.

My colleague Michael Slackman reports that he and a video producer for The Times, Sean Patrick Farrell, were just shot at from a helicopter over Bahrain's Pearl Roundabout as they were filming a report there, minutes after the army opened fire on protesters trying to march into the area they had been cleared out of one day earlier in a deadly raid.

A Bahriani blogger who writes on Twitter as RedhaHaji expressed his shock on the social network, writing: "This is not real. Not happening."

UPDATE:
Nicholas Kristof, who is reporting from Bahrain notes that there have been quite a few protesters who were grievously wounded - many with head trauma.

The Domino Effect Revisited

After the fall of Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, speculation ran rampant as to whether the revolution that overthrew Ben Ali would spread throughout Africa and the Middle East because the conditions, complaints, and socio-economic situations are pervasive throughout the region.

Special concern was focused on Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and even Iran.

The concern about Egypt was especially well placed, and the events over the past three weeks, up to and including the news that the military sent Hosni Mubarak packing into the sunset this morning show that there may be something to the domino effect (or as I put it - a spillover effect).

While the focus has long been on the Middle Eastern regimes, there's a notable lack of democratic regimes in Africa, and countries South of Egypt and Tunisia may be looking at Tunisia and Egypt as a model for their own stand against autocratic, kleptocratic, and otherwise totalitarian regimes. Africans are going to take a good long look at the events of the past two months as a model for their own political discontent.

That includes some of the usual suspects, like Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, and Libya's Mumar Khadafi. In fact, Libya's between a literal rock and hard place as it is sandwiched between Tunisia and Egypt and Khadafi has been stifling the country's development for 41 years.

So, while any number of regimes are necessarily worried about the people rising up against them, including Syria, Bahrain has said that they don't see a domino effect. I'm sure that Mubarak was thinking the same thing up to and including last night's speech - and the abrupt change in government this morning that sent him packing.

If anyone thinks that there can't or wont be a spillover effect, or a domino effect through the region clearly hasn't been paying attention. Jordan and Syria have been trying to take steps to avert a regime change, and Iran's mullahs have already weathered one attempt (and another attempt is likely to receive renewed vigor in light of events in Cairo).

Iran's regime survived the threat posed by the opposition as led by Mirhussein Mousavi because their secret police, the IRGC, and paramilitary force (Basij) wasn't constrained in the way that the Egyptian army was. The Basij was merciless in its oppression and the crackdown was harsh and thorough to the point that it's debatable whether the opposition could attempt another uprising to demonstrate against the Islamist regime in charge.

But other countries in the region aren't in that kind of position. Their regimes aren't nearly as stable or confident in their security forces to quell potential demonstrations. Their leaders aren't as willing to modernize and impose changes necessary to improve the sociopolitical situation, and that is going to lead to more regimes being contested openly.

From Protests To Strikes; Egyptian Opposition Takes New Tact

After more than two weeks of protests and riots, opponents of Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak have decided to try another tact to dislodge Mubarak from power.

They're going on strike.

In the most potentially significant action, about 6,000 workers at five service companies owned by the Suez Canal Authority — a major component of the Egyptian economy — began a sit-in on Tuesday night. There was no immediate suggestion of disruptions to shipping in the canal, a vital international waterway leading from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea.

More than 2,000 textile workers and others in Suez demonstrated as well, Al Ahram reported, while in Luxor thousands hurt by the collapse of the tourist industry marched to demand government benefits. There was no immediate independent corroboration of the reports. Al Ahram’s coverage was a departure from its usual practice of avoiding reporting that might embarrass the government.

At one factory in the textile town of Mahalla, more than striking 1,500 workers blocked roads, continuing a long-running dispute with the owner. And more than 2,000 workers from the Sigma pharmaceutical company in the city of Quesna went on strike while some 5,000 unemployed youth stormed a government building in Aswan, demanding the dismissal of the governor.

For many foreign visitors to Egypt, Aswan is known as a starting point or destination for luxury cruises to and from Luxor on the Nile River.

In Cairo, sanitation workers demonstrated around their headquarters in Dokki.

The Egyptian economy is already teetering because of the ongoing protests, which have scared off tourists, who comprise one of the largest segments of Egyptian revenues. Strikes would further cripple the economy.

But that doesn't mean that protests and riots haven't continued in Tahrir Square. Several more people were killed and dozens injured in and around Tahrir Square as skirmishes between the opposition and pro-Mubarak thugs continued.



Mubarak's newly promoted Vice President Omar Suleiman isn't exactly a paragon of virtue, and he's keeping his security forces quite busy with their makeshift torture chambers across Cairo. It's wishful thinking to believe that Suleiman is part of a better future for Egyptians as he's wedded to the existing regime and stands to lose his power should Mubarak be swept away. The concessions made thus far aren't sufficient to placate Egyptians who have seen decades of autocratic and kleptocratic rule. Suleiman has done nothing to end the emergency law that has been in place since Mubarak assumed power 30 years ago, which essentially treats Egypt as being under martial law and gives Mubarak nearly unlimited power.

UPDATE:
Egyptian security is continuing to clash with anti-Mubarak protesters while the Tahrir Square protests continue unabated and they're settling in for the long run:



Then, there's the impact of Google executive Wael Ghomin, who was detained by the government and later released to the relief of the anti-Mubarak crowds. Ghomin was behind an effort to memorialize the death of another Egyptian blogger at the hands of Egyptian authorities, and that launched his role as an opposition leader.

He also admitted that he was the anonymous administrator of the Facebook group “We Are All Khaled Said” – one of the most influential rallying points on the Web for Egypt’s raging anti-government protesters.

By turning Khaled Said --an internet blogger who was beaten to death by police in the Egyptian city of Alexandria in June 2010 - into a symbol of Egyptian resistance, Ghonim inadvertently set himself up to become the icon of the revolt.

No longer behind the keyboard

“Long live Egypt!” Ghonim yelled out to the thousands of protesters in Tahrir who rejoiced in his first public appearance the day after his release. “We will not abandon our demand, and that is the departure of the regime,” he told the crowd.

As the Los Angeles Times reported, someone in a crowd reminded Wael that 100,000 people on Facebook were asking him to be the spokesman for the uprising.

“Will you do it?" the man wanted to know."I don't know," said a teary and still reluctant hero.

It would appear that he's got more support than ElBaradei.

Machinations and Maneuvering to Send Mubarak Packing

The demonstrations against Hosni Mubarak are now going on nearly two weeks, and there's no end in sight. US officials continue talks with Egyptian officals on a way to effectuate a peaceful transition away from the Mubarak regime to something different.

The machinations and maneuvering to send Mubarak packing also includes talks between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian government.

The Brotherhood is an outlawed Islamist organization often depicted by the authorities as committed to the overthrow of the secular order in the heart of the Middle East. Official attitudes toward it here have swung between outright repression and reluctant tolerance. But it has remained Egypt’s biggest opposition force against the autocratic rule of President Hosni Mubarak.

After the meeting had started, The Associated Press said that talks included some of the top issues for the opposition — including freedom of the press and the release of those detained since anti-government protests started — as well as agreement to begin setting up a structure to study amending the country’s constitution.

A spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, Gamal Nassar, said the huge and sometimes violent demonstrations that have paralyzed Cairo for 13 days, reverberating around the Middle East, would continue “until the political path can have a role in achieving the aspirations of the protesters” — an apparent reference to their goal of removing Mr. Mubarak.

Mr. Nassar said mediators had brokered the encounter with Mr. Suleiman, who Saturday received public backing from the Obama administration and other Western governments that confirmed him as the West’s choice to guide any transfer of power.

“The brothers decided to enter a round of dialogue to determine how serious the officials are achieving the demands of the people,” Mr. Nassar said. “The regime keeps saying we’re open to dialogue and the people are the ones refusing, so the Brotherhood decided to examine the situation from all different sides.”

Trying to figure out the ultimate goal of the Brotherhood is the biggest problem facing the US and even ordinary Egyptians. The Brotherhood's website and propaganda includes ultimately establishing a caliphate and instituting Islamic law on Egypt. It seeks the elimination of Israel, but depending on who you ask within the group, the group will work within the political process to do so. Some factions within the Brotherhood have spun off to form Islamic terror groups you might be familiar with, including Egyptian Islamic Jihad, al Qaeda, and has inspired the likes of Hamas.

There are even reports that the Brotherhood will accept a continuing Mubarak regime as long as there are significant constitutional reforms.

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood movement accepts that President Hosni Mubarak staying in power is a “safer option” to secure the implementation of constitutional reforms.

“We wanted the president to step down but, for now, we accept this arrangement as long as we feel there is a serious implementation,” Mohamed Saad El-Katatni, a senior leader of the group, said after a meeting between Vice President Omar Suleiman and leaders of some opposition groups.

“It’s safer that the president stays until he makes these amendments to speed things up because of the constitutional powers he holds,” he said in Cairo today.

Because the Brotherhood is more organized than other opposition groups, their decision may allow Mubarak the breathing room to continue limping along and gives the Brotherhood time to prepare for elections in September when they can use the elections to further their goals - which are antithetical to many Egyptians.

So, what are ordinary Egyptians to do?

Well, they're going to continue demonstrating.



And the West will continue hoping that Mubarak takes the hint and resigns with an orderly transition to a caretaker government that will hold elections in a prompt manner. The West, and the US and Israel, will hope that the new government fulfills its obligations under the Camp David Accords and doesn't bring about a wholesale revision/rejection of the Treaty between Egypt and Israel; if that happens, any further peace treaties between Israel and its enemies (those regimes that are still at war with Israel or which are trying to bring about Israel's end) will not happen. That means that the peace process will come to an abrupt end because the treaties will last only as long as the regime in charge and Israel is not about to trade land for a peace that could be over within the blink of an eye.

Is Today Mubarak's Day of Departure?

Hundreds of thousands of protesters are coming together across Egypt to demand that today Hosni Mubarak exit from the political stage. It's gotten to the point where the US is trying to intercede and get Mubarak to step down and lead to an orderly transfer of power. The US and Egyptian officials are trying to figure out an exit plan.

Even though Mr. Mubarak has balked, so far, at leaving now, officials from both governments are continuing talks about a plan in which Mr. Suleiman, backed by Lt. Gen. Sami Enan, chief of the Egyptian armed forces, and Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, the defense minister, would immediately begin a process of constitutional reform.

The proposal also calls for the transitional government to invite members from a broad range of opposition groups, including the banned Muslim Brotherhood, to begin work to open up the country’s electoral system in an effort to bring about free and fair elections in September, the officials said.

Senior administration officials said that the proposal was one of several options under discussion with high-level Egyptian officials around Mr. Mubarak in an effort to persuade the president to step down now.

They cautioned that the outcome depended on several factors, not least Egypt’s own constitutional protocols and the mood of the protesters on the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities.

Some officials said there was not yet any indication that either Mr. Suleiman or the Egyptian military was willing to abandon Mr. Mubarak.

Even as the Obama administration is coalescing around a Mubarak-must-go-now posture in private conversations with Egyptian officials, Mr. Mubarak himself remains determined to stay until the election in September, American and Egyptian officials said. His backers forcibly pushed back on Thursday against what they viewed as American interference in Egypt’s internal affairs.

“What they’re asking cannot be done,” one senior Egyptian official said, citing clauses in the Egyptian Constitution that bar the vice president from assuming power. Under the Constitution, the speaker of Parliament would succeed the president. “That’s my technical answer,” the official added. “My political answer is they should mind their own business.”

Mr. Mubarak’s insistence on staying will again be tested by large street protests on Friday, which the demonstrators are calling his “day of departure,” when they plan to march on the presidential palace. The military’s pledge not to fire on the Egyptian people will be tested as well.

Mubarak, in an interview with Christiane Amanpour claimed that he wanted to leave, but that he was concerned about the chaos that would ensue.



That's a laugh-riot, considering that it was his refusal to leave, and his security thugs, that were causing much of the chaos and bloodshed. Mubarak could have spared everyone the scenes of chaos and violence in Tahrir Square had he agreed to an orderly transfer of power and new elections within a short period of time.

He refused to do so.

This is where things get odd. On the one hand, you've got Mubarak in an interview saying that he contemplates leaving, but wont do so because of the chaos that he claims would ensue, and then there's the reports that there's no willingness on his part to leave. Those mixed messages aren't helping matters, and one has to wonder whether he's saying one thing to Amanpour and the US officials, and quite another to his generals. It wouldn't be the first time either.

Amanpour has also managed to snag an interview with current VP Omar Suleiman.

Journalists continue to be targeted by the mobs and security forces.

UPDATE:
The EU is mirroring calls by the US for an orderly transition to a broad-based government that reflects the public will.

Some Egyptians are bridling at what they consider interference in an internal state matter, but if Mubarak is honestly saying he'd leave, then the US efforts aren't meddling but would potentially help keep the violence to a minimum while a transition government is put in place and that existing government officials would not be allowed to run for office or stay beyond their allotted time periods.

The military remains the wildcard in events, and thus far, they're providing security to the protesters in Tahrir Square. That follows two days of riots where pro-Mubarak thugs assaulted and pummeled anti-Mubarak demonstrators. Hundreds were injured in those riots and the videos from Tahrir Square and other locations around Cairo show the harrowing scenes where security forces ran over demonstrators and engaged in a reckless disregard for the lives of their fellow Egyptians or otherwise allowed the pro-Mubarak thugs to run wild through the crowds causing stampedes and carnage.

Since the protests began, more than 5,000 Egyptians have been injured, and at least a dozen people killed.

A further sign that the Mubarak regime is under increasing pressure to quit: Amr Moussa, the Secretary General of the Arab League appeared in Tahrir Square alongside the anti-Mubarak demonstrators.

Amre Moussa, the Arab League's secretary-general and a veteran Egyptian diplomat, joined protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Friday, state-run Nile TV reported. Time magazine has described him as "perhaps the most adored public servant in the Arab world."

UPDATE:
Demonstrations are expected today in NYC at Times Square and a march is planned thereafter to the Egyptian mission on the East Side of Manhattan in solidarity with the anti-Mubarak protesters.

The rally will start at 3:30 pm. Protesters are expected to march to the Egyptian Consulate on 59th Street and 2nd Avenue. A large enough crowd could complicate the evening commute for those trying to escape the city via the 59th Street bridge.

The larger rally in Cairo has been dubbed by protesters there as “the day of departure.” They are hoping to get Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step down.

UPDATE:

#
1709: Wael Abbas seems to confirm his own detention, tweeting: "Arrested by the army!"
#
1708: Ramy Yaacoub tweets: "It seems that blogger Wael Abbas has been arrested by the army."
#
1705: CNN Breaking Newslink tweets: "Security force with "thugs" storms website office of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and makes arrests, group say."

UPDATE:
An Egyptian journalist relates harrowing tale. Having a policeman say that she would be lynched wasn't the scariest part of her experience yesterday.

No, that came when crowds surrounded her car:

Having a policeman say he wanted to kill me wasn’t my most frightening moment yesterday in Cairo. That came when police and civilians smashed our car windows -- with the five of us inside it -- jumped up and down on the roof, spat on us, pulled my hair, beat my friends and dragged us into a police van.

The five of us were lucky: We emerged from our confrontation with President Hosni Mubarak’s police and operatives alive and relatively healthy. Violence over the past 11 days, much of it in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, has killed as many as 300 people in Egypt, according to the United Nations.

But it was a day I never dreamed could occur in my native city. It happened not because I was a reporter, a Sudan-based contract journalist for Bloomberg News returning to Cairo for vacation. The friends giving me a ride downtown were just trying to take food and first-aid supplies to those injured the previous night in clashes with pro-Mubarak protesters.

Meanwhile, Tunisia's government is lifting the state of emergency next week, which undermines Mubarak's argument that Egypt will descend into chaos if he departs. Egypt's unrest continues precisely because he's sticking around past his expiration date.

UPDATE:
US officials are continuing talks with Egyptian officials, and they're even pressing the Egyptian military to take a leading role in the transition but the focus is on trying to get the opposition to meet with Suleiman to discuss a transition. The opposition doesn't want to engage in talks until after Mubarak leaves:

The Obama administration, encouraged by the relative calm in Egypt on Friday, is urgently trying to persuade opposition groups to participate in a dialogue with Vice President Omar Suleiman in a meeting scheduled for Saturday morning.

Over the past 24 hours, senior administration officials have urged the army and a still-unformed council of respected leaders from across Egyptian society to step forward and bless the dialogue.

President Obama plans to reiterate his call for a transition in public remarks at the White House Friday afternoon.

At the Saturday meeting, the administration hopes that government and opposition leaders will begin to draw the contours of a multi-step transition, including the immediate suspension of harsh emergency laws and establishment of a roadmap for constitutional change and free and fair elections.

Reform protesters have continued to insist that no dialogue can begin until President Hosni Mubarak leaves office. Officials - who discussed the administration's efforts on condition they not be identified or directly quoted - agreed that no substantive progress will be made until Mubarak steps aside.

They said that Mubarak's departure had not been directly addressed in administration conversations with Suleiman, defense leaders and others outside the government. But, they said, that was the recognized subtext.

UPDATE:
Mohamed ElBaradei told CNN he's willing to run for president "if people want" him to and if Egypt becomes a "democracy based on social justice." I just don't see people coalescing behind ElBaradei given that he's an outsider and has only recently inserted himself into the opposition of Mubarak. While he's a known quantity for diplomats and the West, what he would actually bring to the table for Egypt is far less certain.

Protesters Continue Defying Mubarak's Regime

After yesterday's riots and skirmishes started when pro-Mubarak groups stampeded camels and horses through Tahrir Square and hundreds of people were injured, the Egyptian Prime Minister apologized for the violence. Gunfire overnight rang out through Tahrir Square and at least five people were killed. That was after hours of melee combat between the pro-Mubarak thugs and protesters included hurling rocks, Molotov cocktails and anything that wasn't firmly attached to the ground.

Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq told state TV that the attack on the anti-government protesters which began late Wednesday was a "blatant mistake" and promised to investigate who was behind it. He said the actions of the pro-Mubarak supporters were "a million percent wrong."

In an attempt to quell the violence, Egyptian army tanks and soldiers cleared away pro-government rioters Thursday and deployed between them and the protesters seeking the fall of President Hosni Mubarak.

The protesters accuse the regime of organizing the assault, using paid thugs and policemen in civilian clothes, in an attempt to crush their movement.

Government supporters charged central Tahrir Square Wednesday afternoon, sparking 15 hours of uncontrolled chaos, with the two sides battled with rocks, sticks, bottles and firebombs as soldiers largely stood by without intervening.
Video: Witness: Gangs roam Cairo with 'iron bars, knives' (on this page)

However, the military began to move with muscle to stop the fighting early Thursday after a barrage of automatic gunfire hit the anti-government camp before dawn.

Four tanks cleared a highway overpass from which Mubarak supporters had hurled rocks and firebombs onto the protesters.

Multiple journalists were assaulted by mobs of demonstrators, making it more difficult for reporting to get out. So, what has the Egyptian government/military done?

Well, the military has begun rounding up the journalists.

The Egyptian military started rounding up journalists, possibly for their own protection, on Thursday after they came under attack from supporters of President Hosni Mubarak who have been assaulting anti-government protesters.

The U.S. State Department condemned what it called a "concerted campaign to intimidate" foreign journalists in Egypt. The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists said Wednesday that violence against journalists was part of a series of deliberate attacks and called on the Egyptian military to provide protection for reporters.

Foreign photographers reported a string of attacks on them by Mubarak supporters on Thursday near Tahrir Square, the scene of battles between supporters of Mubarak and protesters demanding he step down after nearly 30 years in power.

One Greek print journalist was stabbed in the leg with a screwdriver. A Greek freelance photographer was punched in the face by a group of men who stopped him on the street near Tahrir Square and smashed some of his equipment.

An Associated Press reporter saw eight foreign journalists detained by the military near the prime minister's office, not far from Tahrir Square

The Arabic-language satellite channel Al-Arabiya pleaded on an urgent news scroll for the army to protect its offices and journalists.

Instead of capturing those who were assaulting the journalists, the military is squandering an opportunity to do the right thing to maintain the flow of information.

Despite the military's ongoing presence in Cairo, the violence continues as the pro-Mubarak thugs continue their ongoing assault on the protesters.

Meanwhile, jihadis are looking on and trying to figure out how they can take advantage of the situation to further their own agenda.

At Muslm.net, a Web site associated with Al Qaeda in Egypt, the call was for foreign youths to come to Egypt to join the jihad.

“Hey, brothers, the fall of Egypt’s tyrant is a fall of the earth’s tyrants,” it urged. “This is the time to slaughter the cow.”

That, one expert said, was about the most they could make of the crisis.

“Like always, Al Qaeda’s online movement is viewing this through consummately opportunist lenses,” said Jarret Brachman, a counterterrorism consultant and author of the book “Global Jihadism,” who monitors jihadi Web sites.

Elsewhere, Web postings urged jihadis in Egypt to attack the Arish-Ashkelon gas pipeline, which goes to Israel. “This is a chance to stop the supply to the Israelites,” urged a writer on the Shumukh al-Islam forum, according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors extremist Web sites.

In Yemen, where Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula is stronger, the group posted a videotaped speech by its deputy leader Abu Sufyan al-Azdi encouraging attacks on a Shiite group that it considered part of an Iranian advance on the country, according to SITE.

The jihadi groups, which created mayhem in Egypt in the early part of the last decade, were largely crushed by Mr. Mubarak’s government, and do not enjoy popular support. They face structural challenges in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood, a conservative but nonviolent organization, forms the best-known political opposition.

Though many Qaeda leaders, including Osama bin Laden’s No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahri, began in the Muslim Brotherhood, the two movements have often contrary positions, and the Brotherhood on Tuesday announced its support of Mohamed ElBaradei, a liberal Muslim, to lead an opposition umbrella group in negotiations on a new government to replace Mr. Mubarak’s — a position that is antithetical to Al Qaeda, because it exalts human authority rather than divine.

On Hanein, a Qaeda Web site, a poster using the name Citizen of the Village called jihadis to join with the Muslim Brotherhood because both supported Islamic revolution, whatever their differences.

“You have printed the exact truth,” another replied. “We have to sacrifice for our religion and not let titles hinder us.”

From their weakened position, some jihadis struggled to figure out their role in the protests in Cairo.

In a post on the Ansar al-Mujahedeen forum, translated by SITE, an anonymous writer noted many jihadis’ objections to the demonstrators’ “mistakes and distance from religion.”

But he added, “it is nevertheless our duty not to ignore the benefits that may come about,” including an empty throne. “Jihadists may then leap on that throne.”

Yet, the writer also acknowledged that within the jihadi movement many felt that replacing Mr. Mubarak with a secular, democratic leader might mean simply exchanging one tyrant with ties to the United States with another. “So we wait and do not care for those revolutionaries against injustice, and we continue our jihadi path and the support of our jihadi brothers.” Ultimately, “separating the jihadi movement from the popular Muslim movement is the end of this movement,” he wrote.

Perhaps most ominous are the calls for the jihadi groups to come under the Muslim Brotherhood umbrella to help topple the Mubarak regime.

UPDATE:
There are reports that the Egyptian Central Bank is imposing limits on how much depositors can withdraw. That would suggest that the Bank is contemplating a possible bank run - except that the news of those limits might itself bring on a bank run not just in Cairo, but around the country. That's going to upset the already delicate economic situation even further and would suggest that the government is even more worried about the financial picture than they're letting on.

Meanwhile, the BBC is reporting that the Egyptian Constitution will be amended to impose term limits and who can or can't be elected to the presidency.

#
1457: More from Vice-President Suleiman, as reported by state TV: He says articles 76 and 77 of the Egyptian constitution will be amended, and other articles are open to amendment as well. Article 76 specifies who can or can't run for president, and article 77 says the president can be re-elected, without specifying a term limit.

That's not sufficient to placate the protesters.

The BBC is also reporting that at least one employee at the state-run television network has quit over the propagandizing nature of the network's reporting:

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1450: Shahira Amin, was until yesterday a journalist with the state-run Egyptian channel, Nile TV. She told the BBC World Service that she had to leave her job because she no longer felt able to report the state view when what she saw on the street was so different: "We were basically showing the pro-Mubarak rallies all day long, as if that was the only thing that was happening. I couldn't show what was happening here in Tahrir. I couldn't even report the figures as they were. So no thank you. I feel liberated."

NYT Lede coverage continues here.

Mohamed ElBaradei has given Mubarak 48 hours to leave the country, but that's an idle threat since ElBaradei doesn't exactly have the power to make that happen. It's just a strong statement made in the hopes of currying favor among the disparate opposition groups.

UPDATE:
The regime is systematically attempting to thwart reporting of the protests, the riots by pro-Mubarak thugs, and otherwise getting the news out about the ongoing conditions in the country.

Many journalists covering the protests in Egypt were detained and attacked on Thursday, and human rights groups were also a target, in what appeared to be an escalating effort to block reports on the violence.

The Egyptian security forces were rounding up workers for human rights groups as well as foreign journalists, witnesses in Cairo said. Security police raided the Hisham Mubarak Law Center, where many nongovernmental organizations operate. They ordered people there to lie on the floor and disabled their mobile phones. Two people were being interrogated. The state news agency Thursday has asked foreign press to evacuate all the hotels near Tahrir Square.

The Committee to Protect Journalists was investigating at least 10 cases of reporters being detained on Thursday. The government told the journalists that they were not being arrested but rather taken into "protective custody," according to the group.

UPDATE:
There are protests in Gaza to support the anti-Mubarak protesters, but similar protests were disbanded by Hamas in Gaza and Fatah has prevented similar gatherings in the West Bank. The PA Prime Minister says that the Egyptian situation is blamed on the failure of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad said Thursday during a visit to Paris that he thinks the failure to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is playing into the unrest in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East.

Fayyad said he thinks protesters' complaints stem partly from the internal situations in countries hit by unrest, but also from "a frustration, a desperation because of the failure of efforts to solve the Palestinian problem."

Ah, when all else fails, blame Israel. Never mind that the situation in Egypt is directly related to with the failure of Mubarak to provide socioeconomic opportunities and allow a political process to develop and flourish that was open - high food costs, high unemployment, and lack of political participation have nothing to do with Israel and everything to do with the autocratic regime in place whose economic policies have led to more than half the population of Egypt living on less than $2 a day.

And you wonder why I have no expectation of success in a peace process when Israel is demonized its so-called partners in peace at every opportunity.

Chaos Descends As Pro Mubarak Thugs Attack Protesters In Tahrir Square

The scenes in Tahrir Square are one of chaos and violence as pro-Mubarak thugs are stirring up trouble and renewed rioting. The pro-Mubarak thugs rode horses and camels through the crowd, causing a stampede among the groups looking to oust Mubarak. Countless people were trampled in the melee. At least 1 person killed and 300 injured:



Things are about to get a whole lot more dangerous for all involved - including for Mubarak. He's left himself no wiggle room, and with the rioters descending on the peaceful protesters at Tahrir Square, there will be a call for blood.

Also, while Mubarak claimed yesterday that he would not run for reelection in the September elections, there's quite a bit that he didn't say, which is even more noteworthy:

1. Emergency law is still effective, which means oppression, brutality, arrests, and torture will continue. How can you have any hope for fair democratic elections under emergency law where the police have absolute power?2. Internet is still not working, no talks of lifting censorship.
3. No talks of allowing freedom of speech, freedom to create political parties, freedom to participate in politics without the risk of getting arrested. FYI to start a political party you need the government's permission. How do you expect democracy to come out of this?
4. He said he will put anyone responsible for corruption to trial right? What about putting the police who killed 300+ to trial? What about members of NDP who are the most corrupt businessmen/politicians in the country. Do you think he'll put those to trial? Think again.
5. He didn't even take responsibility for anything that went wrong in the last 30 years. Not even his condolences to the martyrs who have fallen in this revolution.

The Army is now calling for an end to the protests, which means that the window of opportunity for the anti-Mubarak protesters is closing fast.

From the BBC live feed:

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1432: Egyptian state-owned Channel One TV cites a security source as saying that no gun shots have been fired in Tahrir Square, as reported by al-Jazeera.
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1430: A journalist in Tahrir Square tells al-Jazeera that one of the pro-government demonstrators has been killed. Hundreds of people have also been wounded, the journalist says.
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1426: Ola in Egypt writes: "Not only will Mubarak and the Egyptian military be blamed for any bloodshed that happens today, but also the western governments - Obama, the UK and the EU for sitting back and watching. For encouraging him to buy time while watching him use very low tactics." Have Your Say

Far too many people think that the US is omnipotent and can simply deem whoever it chooses to be in power, or that it can force Mubarak from power. It's never quite that easy or simple, and it still remains up to the Egyptian people and Mubarak to figure out the path ahead.

UPDATE:
Anderson Cooper, who is covering the protests at Tahrir Square for CNN was attacked by a crowd of people. Tear gas and molotov cocktails are being hurled into the crowds.

UPDATE:
The Army is holding its fire. It wont take actions against either the demonstrators or the pro-Mubarak agitators who have streamed into Tahrir Square to disrupt what had been peaceful demonstrations. Via BBC:

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1534: BBC world affairs editor John Simpson, in Tahrir Square, says: "I am among a group of Mubarak supporters. They have been preparing all sorts of weapons - pulling down iron railings, breaking up paving stones - and using them against anti-government protesters. There has been a kind of counter-attack by the pro-Mubarak groups, who are determined to force the remaining protesters out of the square. The soldiers are right here, sitting on their tanks, looking on and occasionally taking shelter, but are not trying to intervene. People know the army is not going to fire on either side, so their presence is not intimidating. The Mubarak supporters are forcing their way into the square through all the main entrances, and trying to force out the protesters gathered there."

UPDATE:
Multiple reports indicate that pro-Mubarak thugs are throwing firebombs/molotov cocktails, and several have fallen on the grounds of the Cairo Museum. Army soldiers and demonstrators have been trying to put out the fires before they spread. The pro-Mubarak thugs continue throwing firebombs at the protesters.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon says that the transition of power should occur now. That's yet another call for Mubarak to step down. Those calls are increasing, even as the pro-Mubarak thugs are streaming into the streets to confront the demonstrators.

UPDATE:
Here's more video, showing pro-Mubarak thugs hurling Molotov cocktails and getting into scrums with protesters - sending volleys of rocks hurling at each other:

Egyptians Mull the Next Step UPDATE: Mubarak Wont Resign, But Wont Run For Reelection

Ordinary citizens have banded together to provide protection for themselves, their neighbors, and provide local authority. They're trying to protect key infrastructure and provide basic services as the government police and security have all but disappeared.



And Egyptians aren't exactly rushing to back Mohamed ElBaradei either. They see him as an outsider and interloper.

Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets today demanding that Mubarak step down.

The army's pledge on Monday not to use force against demonstrators emboldened Egyptians to push for the biggest shake-up of the political system since 1952 when army officers deposed King Farouk.

More than 200,000 Egyptians crowded into Tahrir Square in central Cairo and 20,000 marched in Suez with reports of protests in other cities such as Alexandria.

"Mubarak go away to Saudi or Bahrain" and "We don't want you, we don't want you," chanted men, women and children in a sea of people that began gathering from the early hours.

The scenes in Tahrir (Liberation) Square, which has become a rallying point for protests over poverty, repression and corruption, were in sharp contrast to Friday when police beat, teargassed and sprayed water cannon on protesters.

There had been talk that the protesters, some shouting "Revolution, Revolution, until victory," would march on the presidential palace on Tuesday but by early afternoon the crowds had not moved from the square.

Initially unorganized, the protests against Mubarak are gradually coalescing into a loose reformist movement encompassing many sections of Egyptian society.

Young unemployed mixed with members of the Islamist movement the Muslim Brotherhood, and the urban poor held hands in solidarity with doctors and teachers.

"We are calling for the overthrow of the regime. We have one goal, and that is to remove Hosni, nothing else. Our politicians need to step in and form coalitions and committees to propose a new administration," said Ahmed Abdelmoneim, 25, a computer engineer.

Video of Tahrir Square:



Stephen Walt at Foreign Policy is calling on President Obama to demand that Mubarak step down. I think that's the wrong tact - the President has to continue walking a fine line between being supportive of democratic rights and freedoms for the Egyptian people, and being cognizant that the Mubarak regime has been an ally of the US for more than 30 years and if the US backs the change now, other US allies throughout the region and the rest of the world may take that as a sign to consider other allies down the road.

Frankly, the outcome in Egypt wont be decided by Washington. It will be decided by the Egyptian people and Mubarak himself. Egyptian protesters are planning on marching on the presidential palace itself:



That's sure to hammer home just how tenuous a hold Mubarak has on his power. His power continues slipping through his hands no matter how hard he's tried to retain power. Sacrificing his cabinet and ministers didn't have an effect because the Egyptians are past window dressing and are demanding nothing less than Mubarak step down.

UPDATE:
Photos from the ongoing protests in Tahrir Square and elsewhere in Egypt. While the size of the protests have been estimated at anywhere from 250,000 to 2 million, the crowds are gathering despite an ongoing curfew and they are showing no sign of relenting on their demands.

UPDATE:
Mubarak is reportedly not going to run for reelection as head of Egypt in elections scheduled for September. The problem is that he's not going to step down now either, and that's the only thing that will satisfy the millions of Egyptians who have taken to the streets to protest his regime.