The Rational Irrationalism of North Korea

North Korea keeps ratcheting up the threat index with pronouncements that they're going to unleash nuclear annihilation against the US and South Korea. The threats are definitely crazy, but I think they've been acting as rational irrationalists. What do I mean by this? It means that they're crazy like a fox and have a definite strategy here. They know from past history that crazy gets the goods. Kim Il Song got the West to give humanitarian aid. Kim Jong Il threatened nuclear war and got aid. Now? Kim Jong Un threatens apocalypse and the endgame is to get aid.

Everyone knows the North Korean economy is in shambles. We know it. South Korea knows it. Even the North Koreans know it. They sacked their Prime Minister and replaced him with a guy who was previously sacked for not getting the economy going. The North wouldn't do that unless things were dire.

About the only thing going for the North right now is that they've got nuclear tech and some intermediate range missiles that might work but aren't necessarily accurate. It's enough of a threat though to be taken seriously, which is why the US, South Koreans, and Japanese are moving in theater missile defense systems and orienting their defensive capabilities accordingly. At the same time, the US/SK/Japanese are moving in assets that could deter what could be the next phase of North Korean saber rattling - a small scale provocation such as sinking a South Korean boat, shelling disputed South Korean islands, or threatening South Korean fishermen.

The North has been thoroughly indoctrinated by the Kim clan to consider the US to be equivalent of the Soviets in Red Dawn. Evil that must be thwarted from worldwide supremacy and to protect the honor of the homeland. All that changes is instead of shouting Wolverines!, the North is shouting Juche!

What we take to be defensive action, like moving in assets to the region in response to North claims of nuclear Armageddon is considered a further threat that North Korean leadership considers is justification for their earlier claims.

Now, are the North really so crazy as to light the Korean peninsula aflame, let alone carry out their nuclear threats? If the North doesn't get what it is demanding, would it be really willing to attack the South?

I definitely see the North restarting their shuttered nuclear program, and it also is a bargaining chip that the North could use in essentially shaking down the west for more aid (which the North will spin as winning and tribute to North Korean success).

I don't think they are willing to launch a full scale conflict, but can the South really take that risk? It's places like Seoul that will be on the front line of a North Korean attack given its proximity to the DMZ. The North might be convinced that they could manage the element of surprise and get in a devastating first blow, but it would only be a matter of time before Western technological superiority demolishes the military the North has (and which is largely stuck in the 1960s both with ground and air assets).

Moreover, the Chinese would probably step in to moderate the North's bellicosity before things go wrong for the North. The Chinese don't want a refugee crisis on their border, which is exactly what would happen if the North goes to war. China has trading relations with the South, and an economic hit to the region would hurt the global economy as well.

Is North Korea Contemplating New Nuclear Test As It Readies Missile For Launch

North Korea has been quite busy in the past couple of days with pronouncements about preparing for a test of a new long rang missile. Now, South Korea is warning of possible preparations by the North to conduct a new underground nuclear weapons test. All this comes just months after Kim Jong Un assumed the role of national leader following the death of his father Kim Jong Il. The missile test and potential nuclear test are another sign that Jong Un is following the path laid down by his father - to use nuclear blackmail to obtain still more concessions on humanitarian aid to help feed the nation:

The South Korean intelligence report says it is highly probable that after the long-range rocket launch, North Korea will use the ensuing international condemnation as an excuse to go ahead with the nuclear test in Punggye-ri, the site in the country's northeast where the other two tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009.

The report, which said such a test would be considered a grave provocation, includes satellite images that it claims were filmed recently and show the final stages of a tunnel being dug at the site.

The photos show an unusual pile of earth and sand near the opening of the tunnel, and the report says this pile has been slowly increasing since March.

North Korean state media have not made an announcement regarding plans for a new nuclear test. Two senior U.S. officials said the United States also had reason to believe that the North was planning such an action.

"Once again this shows ...they know how to manipulate the world," said Andrei Lankov of Seoul's Kookmin University.

"If they do a missile launch and in few months a successful nuclear test, especially a uranium based nuclear device, it will send a very strong message to the world. The same message they always want to deliver -- we are here, we are dangerous, unpredictable and it's better to deal with us by giving us monetary and food concessions."

Japan is readying missile defense systems ahead of the North Korean test launch. The North continues to claim that it is a test of a civilian missile system and experts who have seen the missile note that it is configured for civilian purposes, but the missile would provide the North with critical data for use and incorporation in the North's long range missile program. The North has repeated given and/or sold technical data on missile technologies to countries such as Pakistan and Iran, and the North has also been a source of worry about nuclear proliferation.

The missile test is timed to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, Jong Un's grandfather and founder of the North Korean regime.

North Korea Agrees To Moratorium on Nuclear Weapons, Missile Development

This is being hailed as a significant breakthrough, and it should be. However, we need to be vigilant that North Korea isn't double dealing - saying one thing to the US all while engaging in clandestine operations or proliferation activities.

The United States said Wednesday North Korea has agreed to suspend nuclear activities and accept a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests, in a breakthrough in negotiations with the secretive communist nation.

The announcement comes little more than two months after the death of longtime ruler Kim Jong Il, and suggests North Korea has met the key U.S. preconditions for restarting multi-nation disarmament-for-aid talks that the North withdrew from in 2009.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the North has agreed to allow International Atomic Energy inspectors to verify and monitor the moratorium on uranium enrichment and confirm disablement of its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon.

Her statement says the US will meet with North Korea to finalize details for a proposed package of 240,000 metric tons of food aid.

North Korea issued a similar, although differently worded statement released simultaneously in Pyongyang.

An unidentified spokesman from North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in its statement carried by the state-run news agency that the North agreed to the nuclear moratoriums and the allowance of U.N. inspectors "with a view to maintaining positive atmosphere" for the U.S.-North Korea talks.

The announcement follows talks in Beijing last week between U.S. and North Korean negotiators, the first since negotiations were suspended after Kim's death in December from a heart attack.

Before his death, the U.S. and North Korea were close to such an agreement, which appears to meets U.S. preconditions for restarting the six-nation talks suspended three years ago.

Allowing inspectors to review operations at known nuclear facilities is an improvement, and may mean that the regime under Kim Jong Un is moving away from the militaristic tone set by his father. It may also mean that the regime recognizes just how bad its socio-economic conditions are and that the need for food aid is finally driving the regime to curtail its military programs. The agricultural situation in the country may be even worse than the regime is letting on.

That may be wishful thinking - but if the regime has to begin focusing on improving its agricultural resources so that the nation doesn't starve while curtailing the nuclear and missile programs, then that's a significant accomplishment of the sanctions regime in place.

Saudis Threaten To Obtain Nuclear Weapons If Iran Tests Own Nuclear Weapons

As I've been indicating for a while, the Saudis have a vested interest in seeing that Iran doesn't obtain nuclear weapons. They are the chief rivals for the Iranian regime and there are religious connotations to the geopolitical maneuverings.

While unnamed US offiicals and others think that Israel is behind a rash of attacks that have killed scientists involved in Iran's nuclear program to derail or at least slow down their nuclear ambitions, I've noted that Saudi Arabia may also be involved in the process. In fact, Iran may consider Saudi Arabia to be the bigger threat and rival than Israel and Saudi Arabia may be playing up Israel's role in thwarting Iran so as to hide the Saudi role in doing so.

The revelation that Saudi Arabia would go nuclear if Iran tests its own nuclear weapon is the latest indication that Saudi Arabia is involved in efforts to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Citing an unidentified Saudi Arabian source, the Times newspaper in the U.K. (which operates behind a paywall) said that the kingdom would seek to buy ready-made warheads and also begin its own program to enrich weapons-grade uranium.

The paper suggested that Pakistan was the country most likely to supply Saudi Arabia with weapons, saying Western officials were convinced there was an understanding between the countries to do so if the security situation in the Persian Gulf gets worse. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have denied such an arrangement exists.

Iran, which follows the Shiite branch of Islam, and Sunni Saudi Arabia are major regional rivals.

While it might be convenient to paint Israel as the impediment to peace in the region, the fact is that Arab and Persian regional animosities and ambitions are as much a factor as the Arab-Israeli conflict. Even if Israel didn't exist, Saudi Arabia and Iran would be engaging in their own arms race for regional supremacy.

Israel's nuclear program, which has never been officially declared by the Israeli government, isn't the destabilizing element in the region, but an Iranian nuclear program is - primarily because the Iranian leadership may not be constrained by the longstanding belief that mutually assured destruction (MAD) would keep nuclear-armed parties from going to war with nuclear weapons because they would not want to see their own countries obliterated in a nuclear exchange. If religious beliefs trump rational action and the Iranian leadership seeks a nuclear confrontation to achieve religious domination over its foes, it might see those killed within Iran as martyrs for the cause and accept casualties that might otherwise keep the weapons locked tight.

The reports also indicate that there is a tightening axis between Saudi Arabia and the Pakistani government to the point where they consider the two countries as one:

Ambassador Mohammed Naeem Khan was quoted as saying that "each Pakistani considers (the) security of Saudi Arabia as his personal matter." Naeem also said that the Saudi leadership considered Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to be one country.

It also raises serious questions about Pakistan's ongoing role in nuclear weapons and technology proliferation and its ongoing role in spreading nuclear technologies around the world. That's a role that began with the AQ Khan network, but which appears to be continuing to this day.

Ranking Nuclear Security By Country

The Nuclear Threat Initiative, which is headed by former US Senator Sam Nunn, has released a study of 32 nations that have nuclear capabilities - both nuclear weapons and civilian nuclear programs - that ranks each country by taking into account on-site security, political stability, economic conditions, security and safety, international commitments (such as nuclear nonproliferation), and other factors.

The 122-page report is titled the “Nuclear Materials Security Index” and its accompanying Web site is www.ntiindex.org. Australia came out on top, the report says, because it has reduced its holdings of weapon-useable materials to “a small amount” and did well on the overall indicators. It received 94 out of 100 possible points.

Among the nine countries known to possess nuclear arms, Britain came out on top with a score of 79. The report credits its high status to concrete security measures as well as “its commitment to and follow-through on international obligations.”

The United States scored 78 — a fairly good ranking, the evaluators said, considering its possession of a sprawling nuclear complex that dates to the earliest days of the atomic era.

Japan received a score of 68 because of its vast stores of plutonium, its relatively poor measures with security personnel and its lack of an independent regulatory agency.

A surprise nation on the list is Iran. It claims no ambitions for making bomb fuel even while global leaders worry that its growing atomic program seeks just that capability. The study team said that Iran was included in the analysis because of its possession of highly enriched uranium for a research reactor in Tehran.

Iran received an overall score of 46, its standing undercut by what the report judged to be corruption, political instability, and poor procedures for nuclear control and accounting. Of 32 nations, it ranked 30th.

Pakistan, with a security score of 41 and a nuclear complex that is undergoing rapid growth, ranked 31st.

North Korea came in last with a score of 37. The report cited a total of 10 indicators that came in below the global average, including site and transportation security as well as political stability.

The full report is here.

The index is based on information that is widely available and doesn't require special intelligence gathering means. Israel's ranking is based on the fact that the country refuses to divulge information about its program - refusing to confirm or deny its nuclear program. Thus, security protocols are rated low, even though its believed to be quite secure.

It's an issue repeated with China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

As for international treaties and agreements, more than 70% of countries without nuclear materials have ratified the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism (ICSANT), but several countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials have signed but not ratified the agreement: Argentina, Australia, Canada, France, Israel, Italy, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, and Vietnam haven't signed the convention.

Ultimately, the goal is reducing the chances of nuclear weapons proliferation, and exposing the public to the dangers of weapons materials falling into the wrong hands.

Death of a Despotic Dictator - Kim Jong-il Dead at 69

North Koreans have not experienced anything other than a dynastic dictatorship since before the Korean War. The cult of personality that surrounds the Kim family is all-pervasive and thorough coopts and corrupts the worldview of North Koreans.

So, when Kim Jong Il died yesterday, supposedly of a heart attack while on a train carrying out inspections of the country a couple of days ago (but publicly acknowledged today), the North Korean media goes through the ritualized process of openly weeping for the dead dictator and praying for his successor, his son Kim Jong-un.

The outpouring of grief around North Korea is highly stylized and is an outgrowth of the cult of personality, but it's also a way of showing loyalty to the regime; if someone doesn't show sufficient amount of grief in these public displays, they may wonder whether someone will snitch on them or the North Korean security apparatus will deal with them. These displays are not necessarily genuine.

The North had kept news of the death of its leader secret for roughly two days, perhaps a sign that the leadership was struggling to position itself for what many believe could be a particularly perilous transition.

A few hours after the announcement, the ruling Workers’ Party and other state institutions released a joint statement suggesting Mr. Kim’s chosen successor, his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, was in charge.

The statement called the son "the great successor to the revolution" and "the eminent leader of the military and the people." It was the first time North Korea referred to the son as "leader" since his ailing father pulled him out of obscurity in September last year and made him a four-star general and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party.

The Workers’ Party said that “Under the leadership of our comrade Kim Jong-un, we have to turn sadness into strength and courage, and overcome today’s difficulties.”

K.C.N.A., the official news agency, said North Korean soldiers and citizens were swearing allegiance to Kim Jong-un. People on the streets of Pyongyang broke into tears as they learned of Mr. Kim’s death, The Associated Press reported from Pyongyang.

Kim Jong-un is believed to be in his late 20s and his youth and relative inexperience could make him vulnerable to power struggles; some analysts have questioned the depth of the military’s support for him.

Kim Jong-il’s death came after a long illness, dating to 2008, that American intelligence agencies believed involved some form of a stroke. The North has indicated he was 69 years old, but scholars have said he could have been a year older.

Jong Il's death throws negotiations about North Korea's nuclear program into limbo. North Koreans and the West were negotiating food shipments as well, since North Korea can't produce anywhere near the amount of food necessary to support itself. The regime focuses its efforts on its military infrastructure and uses military weapons and technology sales to maintain its power, at the expense of the people who are in dire straits.

South Korean's military was put on high alert considering the possibility of the North Korean military using this as an opportunity to assert itself as well as the possibility that North Koreans may attempt to flee the country en masse.

Jong-il's greatest achievement was not self-sufficiency of food production, but the ability to detonate two crude nuclear devices in underground tests in 2009. While one is considered a fizzle, the two tests taken together show that the North Koreans have demonstrated nuclear weapons capabilities and that has led to further international sanctions and isolated the regime.

While some analysts are wondering whether Jong-il was a master manipulator or a madmad, the answer is that he was both. One can be a manipulator and a madmad at the same time. The one guiding principle for the regime is that maintaining power was critical and absolute. There was no tolerance of dissent and everyone in the country had to claim fealty to Jong-il. Dissenters were treated harshly - disappearing into the North Korean gulag archipelago of labor camps and prisons. North Koreans also get a wildly distorted worldview as the regime tightly controls all media access, limiting telecommunications and Internet connectivity.

So what do we know about Jong-un? That's the trillion dollar question, and the answer isn't much:

Before his death, Kim Jong Il had been grooming his third and youngest son as his successor. Kim Jong Eun studied for a time in Switzerland at a German-speaking high school in Liebefeld, a suburb of the Swiss capital, Bern. Former classmates remember a shy but determined boy obsessed with American basketball and expensive sports shoes. They say he spoke passable German and made some local friends but was monitored closely by staff members s from the North Korean Embassy in Bern.

He vanished in the middle of the school year in 2000, apparently to return to Pyongyang, and had not been seen in public since until he emerged at his father’s heir apparent last year. A campaign of hagiographic propaganda hailed him as the “Dear Young General,” but it is unclear how much support he has within the armed forces or the ruling party, both of which are dominated by far older men. His mother, a former dancer, died in 2004.

UPDATE:
A classic satire of Kim, courtesy of Team America's madcap duo, Matt Stone and Trey Parker:




UPDATE:
For anyone wondering just how bad things are in North Korea, look no further than the satellite imagery showing the utter lack of any nighttime activity in North Korea. There's only a modicum of lighting around the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, but not much else.

That's compared to the ribbons of light around Seoul and throughout much of South Korea, Japan, Thailand, and China, where cities are joined together by highways and towns at regular intervals.

Syria Operating Another Uranium Processing Plant Near Damascus?

Syria is playing a real dangerous game with international inspectors and Israel. The country is trying to stay a step ahead of both the IAEA and Israel while it attempts to establish a nuclear processing capability.

Syria is suspected of harboring a uranium conversion reactor near the town of Marj as Sultan, near Damascus, according to a publication released Wednesday by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security based on reports by the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

The facility is related to the nuclear reactor project at al Kibar that was bombed by Israel in September 2007, and it was reportedly used for processing uranium, according to the report.

The report said the facility's operational status is still unknown, but Syria is suspected of clearing out the buildings before mid-2008 in efforts to disguise previous activities conducted at the site.

Syria has continued to refuse requests by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect the Marj as Sultan facility, as well as other sites that may be related to the nuclear reactor project, the report said.

Satellite images of the site near Marj as Sultan, obtained by the ISIS, reveal that on July 25, 2008, there was considerable activity involving the pouring of material on the ground as well as trucks and other vehicles that could have been related to the operation.

It doesn't appear to be a large scale operation, but it could be a signal that Syria was attempting to carry out a distributed enrichment program that was more difficult to attack in one fell swoop. ISIS reports that there were three related facilities, and this one near Damascus is included in that number.

Israel carried out airstrikes against a purported nuclear facility in Syria in 2007, and the Syrians didn't muster much of a response diplomatically, which suggested that the Syrians didn't want to bring any more attention to their nuclear ambitions and capabilities.

The problem for inspectors is that to an untrained eye, the buildings and structures would appear to be nondescript commercial buildings and endeavors. That's the problem for inspectors - Syria is trying to hide their program in plain sight, and using these kinds of structures to deflect attention and prying eyes in the sky.

North Korea Threatens Holy Nuclear War Against South Korea

Anyone want to take a crack at why North Korea would start using religious imagery in its threats against South Korea? North Korea threatens holy nuclear war if the South doesn't back down on its military preparations.

Tensions are heating up on the Korean peninsula as South Korea continues to stage military drills near the border.The response on Thursday from North Korea's chief of defense, Kim Yong Chun, was blunt:
"To counter the enemy's intentional drive to push the situation to the brink of war, our revolutionary forces are making preparations to begin a holy war at any moment necessary based on nuclear deterrent," Kim said, according to the Korean Central News Agency.
The remarks come as the North prepares to celebrate the 19th anniversary of the day its leader, Kim Jong Il, took power.

The video makes an attempt at balance, trying to claim that the South Koreans were being provocative by carrying on military training in disputed waters prior to North Korean shelling of a South Korean island that killed four people. That would ignore the fact that a North Korean mine or torpedo sank a South Korean cruiser, killing 46 sailors on board in the worst incident since the truce was signed in 1953.

The military exercises are the most the South Korean government can do short of taking actual retaliatory action against North Korea for the North's repeated attacks. The South Korean government is under tremendous pressure to show that it is taking necessary actions to protect its citizens from the North Korean threats.

The North's latest pronouncements, threatening a holy nuclear war, only adds to the pressure and possibility that the North is trying to force still more concessions at talks and is using the nuclear angle to its utmost advantage.

Iranian Regime Fires Foreign Minister While Minister Was Visiting Senegal

If the Iranian regime, led by the mad mullahs and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, wanted to send messages to both the Iranian people and observers, they did so loud and clear today. The regime fired Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who had been the foreign minister since 2005.

Ahmadinejad doesn't rule alone, despite his title of President. He requires the consent and approval of the mullahs, which is led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei had blocked Ahmadinejad's attempts to dump Mottaki for several years, but apparently Ahmadinejad managed to get his way.

It has been well known that the Iranian leader had long sought to replace Mr. Mottaki but had been prevented from doing so until now by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in appointing the heads of several key ministries.

The move was a victory for the president and an apparent extension of his powers, though it remained unclear what changes at the upper echelon of Iranian politics allowed for the firing.

President Ahmadinejad appointed Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, as the country’s acting foreign minister until a permanent replacement is found.

In a separate letter issued on Monday, Mr. Ahmadinejad expressed gratitude to Mr. Mottaki for his services during his five-year tenure. "Hereby, I thank you for your services as efforts during your tenure in the Foreign Ministry," read the letter.

Consider this a further consolidation of power in Ahmadinejad and his minions and a further reduction in the power of the mullahs to control the domestic and foreign policy agendas.

Expect Iran to continue taking a still more confrontational stance on its nuclear ambitions as Iran's nuclear energy chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, will take over as interim foreign minister. Expect him to try and communicate Iran's nuclear ambitions within a clearly delineated civilian spin, even as Iran remains as bellicose as ever and Iran's rivals remain wary of Iran's intentions. Indeed, this could be a change in marketing tact about Iran's nuclear ambitions but will not change Iran's intentions to develop not only the enrichment capabilities, but nuclear weapons to go along with it.

On that front, it appears that the Stuxnet worm has done more to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions than years of diplomacy and cajoling.

Iranian Nuclear Scientists Targeted For Assassination

Attacking the physical infrastructure of the Iranian nuclear program may produce minor setbacks and cause the Iranians to further fortify their program against physical attack, defending and protecting the scientists and brain-trust that is building the infrastructure could produce longer lasting setbacks because of the knowledge gap and the time it takes to train and gain expertise in dealing with the practicalities of building a nuclear infrastructure.



So, when reports surfaced that someone planted car bombs that killed one leading Iranian nuclear scientist and wounded another, my ears perked up.

Two bomb blasts in the Iranian capital Monday killed a top nuclear scientist and wounded another.

State-controlled media immediately accused the US and Israel of being behind the assassination, which came days before Iran is scheduled to discuss its nuclear program with international officials. And on Sunday a trove of US embassy cables revealed by WikiLeaks revealed that multiple Arab countries have urged the US to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, while many Western nations accuse Tehran of using the program to develop nuclear weapons.

State media reported that two bombs were attached to the cars of the scientists by unidentified men on motorcycles, then detonated from a distance, reports Agence France-Presse. The scientist killed was Majid Shahriari, a professor in the nuclear engineering department at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran. Fereydoon Abbasi, also a professor at the university who is involved in nuclear research at the Defense Ministry, was wounded.

The attacks occurred at two separate locations with two separate bomb attacks. While some might think that this is a plot line out of James Bond, these attacks may have the ability to put a crimp in Iran's nuclear ambitions and there are more than a few countries that might be behind the effort to stop Iran by any means necessary.

As the recently released US State Department cables and documents show, it wasn't Israel pushing the US to take action against Iran. It was Saudi Arabia and Jordan, and these cables and documents increase the number of likely parties responsible for undermining the Iranian nuclear threat.

Thus, Iranian claims that the US or Israel were behind the attacks is just the tip of the iceberg of potential parties to the incidents. Multiple countries in the region are hoping to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions, and taking out a couple of nuclear scientists - or putting them in fear of cooperating with the Iranian regime - may help delay Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions.

Iran Admits That Its Nuclear Program Was Penetrated By Western Intel Agencies

This is an interesting admission. Iran has admitted that Western spy agencies managed to coopt nuclear scientists and workers involved in Iran's nuclear programs. It said that those efforts have ended as a result of Iranian counterintel operations and arrests of those suspected of spying on the Iranian nuclear program.

Some of its workers at its nuclear facilities took bribes to pass secrets to Western officials, Iranian Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi said Saturday.

The explosive admission comes on the heels of arrests made by the Islamic nation of several alleged spies, along with a computer virus, which Iran said was part of a conspiracy to doom its controversial nuclear program.

Salehi, however, said an uptick in security will put an end to the spying.

"The possibility of information leaking is almost impossible now," Iran's Fars news agency quoted Salehi as saying.

He did not say what information may have been leaked by the alleged spies.

The U.S. has spent several years fighting Iran's buildup of nuclear materials and technology with economic embargoes imposed by the United Nations, despite Iran's claims that its nuclear program will only be used for civilian purposes.

The vice president, who also heads Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said the agency hands out booklets to workers that "spell out precautionary measures to protect (information) and the life of scientists" from Western spies, Fars reported.

Iran Unveils Its Ambassador of Death

It's that time of year when Iran announces its latest weapons systems amid great fanfare (and frequently more than a little photo editing assistance). It announced a new unmanned missile system - realistically it's a form of a UAV that may have a payload system.

The news comes on the heels of Iran fueling its Bushehr nuclear reactor. Iran framed the missile as both the ambassador of death and a "message of hope."

The Iranian military displayed the drone, dubbed the Karrar - or "striker" - at a ceremony attended by top officials. State media say it can carry out long-range attacks up to 1,000 kilometers carrying a 200-kilogram bomb.

President Ahmadinejad called the Karrar a symbol of death to Iran's enemies.

But he also argued the drone serves as "a messenger of salvation and dignity for humanity". The Iranian leader said it is aimed at deterring any act of foreign aggression.

As tensions continue to rise over Iran's disputed nuclear program, so too have discussions of a possible military action by Israel to disrupt it. Israel has not ruled out a strike, in the face of Iranian officials' repeated vows to destroy what it refers to as the Zionist entity.

On Saturday, Iran began loading its long-delayed Bushehr nuclear power plant with fuel. Inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency were on hand to witness the launch of the Russian-built reactor.

Right. This missile is meant to act as a purported deterrent against a possible strike against Iran from Israel or the US. Iran continues building up its long range capabilities against its enemies in the region. That not only includes the Israelis or US bases, but the other Arab countries in the region.

Of course, Iran has been working on its long range strike capabilities for years now, and not all of its efforts have been successful. Despite obtaining missile technology from the North Koreans, the Iranians have had issues with the technology.

It also again highlights the need for missile defense for the US to protect its strategic interests in the region.

Iran Ramping Up Enrichment Efforts

Every day brings Iran that much closer to having the means and wherewithal to build nuclear weapons. Its centrifuges are spinning furiously away enriching uranium to ever higher levels and it is merely a function of time before the enriched uranium can be made into weapons grade.

All the while, the Iranian regime claims that they will be further expanding their enrichment efforts. They want to build a total of 10 enrichment facilities around Iran, which should be a clarion call for the world to scrutinize every inch of the country for illicit nuclear weapons programs. At the same time, the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr is set to go live, with an assist from the Russians:

Iran plans to begin construction of 10 uranium enrichment centers across the country by next year, state-run media is quoting Iran's nuclear chief as saying.

After a cabinet meeting Sunday, Ali Akbar Salehi told IRIB, a state network, that work on one of the centers will be started by March 2011.

Over the weekend, a top Iranian lawmaker defended his nation's right to enrich uranium in the future after Iran and Russia confirmed that Russians will start loading a nuclear reactor in the Islamic republic with fuel next week.

The August 21 arrival of fuel at the Bushehr facility, which Iran says will create atomic energy but other nations fear could be used for nuclear weapons, marks a key step toward its completion, Russia said Saturday, according to Iranian media.

Security Council Approves New Sanctions on Iran

Let's see whether these new sanctions are worth the paper they're written on. I frankly doubt it, but they are somewhat targeted draft resolution to restrict the regime's access to money and equipment in furtherance of their nuclear program.

New sanctions against Iran over its suspect nuclear program that target the country's powerful Revolutionary Guard, ballistic missiles, and nuclear-related investments were approved by the UN Security Council Wednesday.

The resolution imposing a fourth round of sanctions against Iran was approved with 12 "yes" votes, two "no" votes from Brazil and Turkey, and one abstention from Lebanon.

I can understand Turkey's no vote as they have slipped into Iran's sphere of influence and it furthers Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's own Islamist vision for his country, but Brazil's no vote is less clear. Curiously, Lebanon abstained, even with the threat of Iran's proxy Hizbullah looming large over the Lebanese polity.

The text of the draft resolution is here. It specifically expands the sanctions to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and lists other entities and locations that are subject to sanctions.

In the draft resolution, just one scientist was singled out for an asset freeze and travel ban: Javad Rahiqi, 56, the head of the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. The resolution also strengthens the travel ban against 40 officials already blacklisted.

Just one bank is listed: First East Export Bank, which has handled hefty transactions linked to Iran’s military establishment. The United States sought to include more banks, including the Central Bank, but settled for one reference in the introduction saying United Nations member states should “exercise vigilance” in dealing with the Central Bank. China and others argued that singling out banks would unfairly harm the economy.

The list names 23 industrial companies, many of them involved in military contracts or the nuclear industry. Skeptics of the sanctions note that is just a fraction of the Iranian economy, which has been booming.

In addition, 15 companies listed are linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The I.R.G.C., as it is commonly known, is increasingly the military power that runs Iran, and it led the repression against pro-democracy protesters.

The most prominent company, Khatam al-Anbiya Construction, has won billions of dollars in civil and military projects, including a secret nuclear enrichment facility near the holy city of Qum.

US Moving Ahead With Nuclear Weapons Reduction and Nonproliferation Initiatives

President Barack Obama signed the New START treaty today, reducing the current level of US and Russian nuclear warheads by 30%.

The new treaty will shrink the limit of nuclear warheads to 1,550 per country over seven years.

But the two quickly turned serious when they took to the podiums, hailing the moment as an important step to improving the U.S.-Russian relationship and the safety of the world.

Obama, who said last year in a London summit that the American-Russian relationship had started to "drift," said that problem was fixed.

"Together, we stopped that drift, and have proven the benefits of cooperation," he said, arguing that the deal lets the two country start talking about cooperation on missile defense.

Medvedev said that at some points signing the deal — with the old START treating expiring last December — looked like "Mission Impossible."

But he was as upbeat as Obama in hailing it.

"This is a win-win situation — no one stands to loose because of this agreement," he said. "The entire world community has won.

Obama has been no fan of nuclear weapons and this is a feather in his cap for winning the treaty. Not only can this result in further cost savings for both the US and Russians, although the Russians are ever more reliant on their nuclear stockpile to offset a clear US technological advantage in conventional weapons, but it means that the dismantled weapons can provide another source of uranium for civilian nuclear power plants once the weapons grade uranium is processed into LEU. The treaty still needs to be confirmed by the US Senate, but I expect that to happen.

Meanwhile, a series of initiatives that began with the Bush Administration continues to bear fruit. The US has been working with various nations to shut down high enriched uranium reactors and convert it into a low-enriched uranium. The latest such country is Chile, which transported a shipment to the US for reprocessing:

Even as aftershocks from last month's magnitude 8.8 earthquake shook their equipment, U.S. and Chilean engineers worked together to carefully extract Chile's last HEU. It was no simple operation — the radioactive material was carefully loaded into specially designed casks and then lowered into two huge shipping containers for the ocean voyage. All told, 60 tons of metal were needed to keep just 18 kilograms (40 pounds) of HEU from leaking radioactivity.

After two and a half weeks at sea, including passage through the Panama Canal, a specially outfitted double-hulled ship arrived under U.S. Coast Guard escort at the Charleston Weapons Station in South Carolina last month.

Customs agents and nuclear inspectors made radiation checks as the containers were loaded onto flatbed trucks and then driven to the Savannah River Site in South Carolina and the Y-12 National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, where much of it will be converted to safer fuel and resold for nuclear power.

A year ago, Obama made a promise to lead a global effort to recover all of this material within four years — ambitious because it not only requires years of planning and diplomacy, but also highly specific technology and expertise.

No other country but the U.S. has put all these elements together — even Russia depends on U.S. help to safely dispose of uranium.

The U.S. has already helped convert or verified the shutdown of 67 reactors in 32 countries from HEU to low-enriched uranium, or LEU, which is much harder to weaponize. It also has secured HEU supplies in more than 750 vulnerable buildings and removed 2,691 kilograms of weapons-grade nuclear material for safer storage.

To help keep his promise, Obama has proposed a 68 percent increase in the Global Threat Reduction Initiative's budget to $559 million for fiscal year 2011, not only to recover more HEU but also to prevent smuggling of nuclear material by strengthening export and border controls and port security.

Next year's $2.7 billion budget for nuclear nonproliferation work begins to do this for plutonium as well, committing $300 million for a plant at Savannah River to convert 34,000 kilograms of plutonium recovered from warheads to fuel for nuclear power.

The program is operated through the National Nuclear Security Administration, which is part of the Department of Energy. It's important to note that the US is actually assisting the Russians in dismantling their nuclear inventory:

# Monitored downblending of over 352 MT of former Soviet weapons-origin HEU (enough for more than 14,000 nuclear weapons) for use in U.S. power plants, providing 10% of U.S. electricity.
# Downblended over 108 MT (enough for approximately 2,376 nuclear weapons) of surplus U.S. HEU into LEU for use as nuclear reactor fuel, with an additional 12 MT packaged and shipped for downblending (total of over 120 MT). Downblended over 11 MT of Russian civilian HEU to LEU.
# Downblending an additional 17.4 MT of HEU for the Reliable Fuel Supply initiative.
# Working to dispose of at least 68 MT of U.S. and Russian weapons-grade plutonium by converting it into mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel for commercial nuclear power reactors. Continuing construction of the U.S. MOX Fuel Fabrication Facility.
# Ended 43 years of weapons-grade plutonium production in Seversk by shutting down two reactors. Completed 53% of the Zheleznogorsk fossil fuel plant to replace the last reactor, to end all weapons-grade plutonium production in Russia.
# Monitoring safe storage of over 9 MT of Russian weapons-grade plutonium (nearly 1,125 warheads) to ensure its non-military use.

All this is on the heels of the consummation os a 2008 deal with India for that country to reprocess US nuclear materials for its own civilian nuclear program.

Obama Administration Nuclear Weapons Policy Is Destabilizing

The US nuclear strategy since the dawn of the nuclear age has been simple. Attack the US with any nuclear weapon or other WMD (chemical or biological), and the US may respond with nuclear weapons. The US simply didn't hold out that we would not use nuclear weapons in retaliation for such attacks (no first use).

It worked throughout the Cold War and even through the post-Cold War period, but now President Obama would like to throw out the policy in favor of one that has the potential to be far more destabilizing because it eliminates certain ambiguities as to when the US would respond:

Mr. Obama’s strategy is a sharp shift from those of his predecessors and seeks to revamp the nation’s nuclear posture for a new age in which rogue states and terrorist organizations are greater threats than traditional powers like Russia and China.

It eliminates much of the ambiguity that has deliberately existed in American nuclear policy since the opening days of the cold war. For the first time, the United States is explicitly committing not to use nuclear weapons against nonnuclear states that are in compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, even if they attacked the United States with biological or chemical weapons or launched a crippling cyberattack.

Those threats, Mr. Obama argued, could be deterred with “a series of graded options,” a combination of old and new conventional weapons. “I’m going to preserve all the tools that are necessary in order to make sure that the American people are safe and secure,” he said in the interview in the Oval Office.

White House officials said the new strategy would include the option of reconsidering the use of nuclear retaliation against a biological attack, if the development of such weapons reached a level that made the United States vulnerable to a devastating strike.

Mr. Obama’s new strategy is bound to be controversial, both among conservatives who have warned against diluting the United States’ most potent deterrent and among liberals who were hoping for a blanket statement that the country would never be the first to use nuclear weapons.

Mr. Obama argued for a slower course, saying, “We are going to want to make sure that we can continue to move towards less emphasis on nuclear weapons,” and, he added, to “make sure that our conventional weapons capability is an effective deterrent in all but the most extreme circumstances.”

The release of the new strategy, known as the Nuclear Posture Review, opens an intensive nine days of nuclear diplomacy geared toward reducing weapons. Mr. Obama plans to fly to Prague to sign a new arms-control agreement with Russia on Thursday and then next week will host 47 world leaders in Washington for a summit meeting on nuclear security.

Presidents - Democratic and Republican - didn't make such changes because the policy was a sound one.

Now, by eliminating the ambiguities, rogue nations and terror groups seeking to obtain and use them, would exploit the new policies and undermine US national security in the process.

Bear in mind that US intel capabilities are anything but foolproof and a nation could engage in building its own nuclear capabilities without anyone knowing until it was potentially too late. Far too often, the first inkling of a nuclear weapons capability is when a particular nation detonates its first test weapon - see Pakistan, North Korea, China, or India. Even the former Soviet Union's nuclear capabilities were unknown until they detonated their first weapon (and later their first thermonuclear weapon) far earlier than US experts believed possible.

The President maintains that he's still leaving the existing policy in place for certain nations - like North Korea and Iran - but there is no reason to make this adjustment when terror groups and regimes may seek nuclear capabilities despite signing on to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

The President is also wedded to the notion of reducing US nuclear weapons inventories as part of a bilateral treaty with the Russians. That's all well and good, but even there the possibility that going below a certain threshold figure may lead to more uncertainty and the possibility that our nation's enemies might chance a first-strike to decapitate the US nuclear response.

This change in nuclear weapons doctrine is a serious mistake and shows that the President clearly doesn't grasp the seriousness of the threats arrayed against the US and how foreign powers may exploit the change to their advantage.

New Documents Reveal Iran Continued Working Towards Nuclear Weapons

The 2007 NIE claimed that the Iranians had stopped work on nuclear weapons, but evidence coming out this year continues to show just how misguided that report truly was. A new report indicates that Iran was working on neutron triggers, the only purpose of which is to be used in nuclear weapons as an initiator of the chain reaction. It was part of a four year plan to test the components critical to building a nuclear weapon.

The trigger device work appears to have Pakistani fingerprints on it, which also suggests links to the AQ Khan network.

The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan’s bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.

This work has no civilian applications, but is purely military in intent.

The world continues ignoring the Iranian nuclear weapons program at its own peril.

Iranians Pushing For Massive Expansion of Nuclear Enrichment

The Iranians see the weak response from the West and UN and have decided to press home their interest to expand nuclear enrichment. They are intent upon building 10 new enrichment facilities.

BBC Tehran correspondent Jon Leyne says Sunday's announcement is a massive act of defiance likely to bring forward direct confrontation over Iran's nuclear programme.

Iran says the new plants would be of a similar size to its main existing one at Natanz.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told his cabinet that parliament had ordered that Iran should produce 20,000 megawatts of nuclear energy by 2020.

It therefore needed to make 250-300 tonnes of nuclear fuel a year, he said, which would require 500,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium.

Natanz has nearly 5,000 working centrifuges, with plans to build 54,000 in all.

Under the plan Mr Ahmadinejad presented to the cabinet, the level of enrichment would also be increased.

Such a move would be in direct contravention of UN Security Council resolutions, our correspondent says, though Iran counters that it is simply doing what is allowed under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

This isn't merely to produce sufficient enriched uranium for civilian purposes, but one that would produce enough enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.

And there's a complete lack of will to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Is Iran Testing Sophisticated Nuclear Warhead Design?

Are the Iranians working on a sophisticate nuclear warhead design that would allow the regime to place nuclear warheads on its missile systems? That's the implication of a report in the Guardian.

The UN's nuclear watchdog has asked Iran to explain evidence suggesting that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, the Guardian has learned.

The very existence of the technology, known as a "two-point implosion" device, is officially secret in both the US and Britain, but according to previously unpublished documentation in a dossier compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of the design. The development was today described by nuclear experts as "breathtaking" and has added urgency to the effort to find a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis.

The sophisticated technology, once mastered, allows for the production of smaller and simpler warheads than older models. It reduces the diameter of a warhead and makes it easier to put a nuclear warhead on a missile.

Documentation referring to experiments testing a two-point detonation design are part of the evidence of nuclear weaponisation gathered by the IAEA and presented to Iran for its response.

The designs are used in advanced nuclear weapons, permitting smaller weapons that can fit on warheads. They are officially a state secret in the US, although the fundamental knowledge that goes into them are widely available.

That's why preventing access to weapons grade uranium is so critical. Once a nation has weapons grade uranium, obtaining a nuclear weapon is a matter of putting widely available technological components together. It takes a significant amount of energy and time to enrich uranium; thousands of centrifuges spinning furious for months at a time to get enough to make sufficient U235 for a nuclear weapon.

The IAEA doesn't know for sure if those Iranian tests occurred, and has no way of verifying either. Iran continues to obfuscate and thwart any efforts to contain its nuclear ambitions, all while continuing to threaten Israel and saber rattle against any attempts to make Iran conform to the NPT.

Also, revelations about these tests once again confirms the need to engage in missile defense research and the deployment of operational systems to prevent Iran from launching attacks against our allies in the region and Europe - all within range of Iran's missile systems.

Islamic Terrorists Again Strike At Pakistan's Nuclear Infrastructure

A suicide bomber struck at a facility linked to Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, killing seven people. That's in addition to another terror attack in Pakistan killing 17 aboard a bus that was heading to a wedding. Just yesterday, a Pakistani general was killed by a suicide bomber.

These attacks should be unsettling, and rightfully so.

Pakistan has a significant nuclear arsenal, and they are on the front lines against the Taliban and al Qaeda. The terrorists have again struck at the heart of Pakistan's nuclear program; this is the fourth time in the past three years that they have carried out successful attacks against sites linked to the Pakistani nuclear weapons program. The Karma Air Station where the latest attack occurred is where unassembled nuclear weapons are maintained, and can be assembled for use within hours.

The previous attacks include the following:

... an attack on the nuclear missile storage facility at Sargodha on November 1, 2007, an attack on Pakistan's nuclear airbase at Kamra by a suicide bomber on December 10, 2007, and perhaps most significantly the August 20, 2008 attack when Pakistani Taliban suicide bombers blew up several entry points to one of the armament complexes at the Wah cantonment, considered one of Pakistan's main nuclear weapons assembly.

All this news has been seriously underreported by the West, and the seriousness of the situation underscores the problems in Afghanistan as well. Al Qaeda and Taliban elements continue to operate largely with impunity from Pakistani territory inside the frontier provinces, and engage in attacks against Afghanistan regularly.

The Pakistani military has started making increasing efforts to go after the Taliban in South Waziristan and the Taliban claim that the latest attack was retribution for the continuing operations. The Pakistani military has to get a handle on the situation, if only to further secure their nuclear program from additional attacks.