In the Wake of Charlie Hebdo

As of this posting, there are at least two separate hostage standoff situations near Paris. One is at a kosher market (I've heard it referred to as a supermarket, deli, or grocery) on Ave Porte de Vincennes in the 13th Arr (that'd be Southeastern Paris). The other is near Charles de Gaulle airport. There have also been reports of an incident near the Eiffel Tower in the Trocadero, but so far news about that incident is limited.

There have been casualties reported in one of the incidents, with at least two dead.

The two standoff situations appear related to each other and to the Charlie Hebdo attacks, as well as a separate attack resulting in the death of a French policewoman the other day. It's likely all part of the same cell.

Yet, there's something irking me about all this. We're being told that it required training and tactics to carry off the attacks, but yet the best that this cell could manage is to kill a bunch of unarmed journalists and a couple of cops who were caught by surprise and off-guard before engaging in standoffs at locations like a grocery store.

Is this the best that al Qaeda in Yemen can do?

I know that sounds off or somehow callous but if you're studying tactics, methods, and capabilities, al Qaeda has gone from being able to pull off spectacular attacks against the USS Cole (a military target no less), the African embassy bombings that killed hundreds of people, and 9/11, which killed nearly 3,000 people and injured thousands more, to now being able to attack a French satire paper.

That's quite telling about the limits of what al Qaeda is able to do more than a decade after 9/11. It doesn't mean let your guard down, but it should also put things in perspective.

Also putting things into perspective? That the cry and hue about Muslims overwhelming Europe are so vastly overblown that a handy dandy visual is needed to hammer it home:

This is the best visualization I've yet seen of Europe's "Muslim tide" hysteria pic.twitter.com/a681LGp4yR

— Doug Saunders (@DougSaunders) January 9, 2015

Or, perhaps a few other statistics about the threats from terrorism:

Less Than 2 Percent Of Terrorist Attacks In The E.U. Are Religiously Motivated. http://t.co/NAuKUyYXNn

— lawhawk (@lawhawk) January 9, 2015

And if you're listening closely, just substitute Jew for Muslim in all those calls for banning Muslims from entering the country because the acts of a handful are indicative of the intent of all (and that's the most limited kind of rhetoric streaming from the right, which also includes expulsion and flat out genocide). Even in France, where anti-Semitism is rampant, the fact is that most people - of all religions - just want to live in peace, and there are those who want to deny everyone that opportunity. They happen to include Islamist extremists who do not speak for all Muslims.

So, while attention is rightly focused on Paris and the search for the Charlie Hebdo killers, there's Muslims living in fear of Islamic extremists the world over, and few places are more dangerous right now for Muslims than Nigeria where Boko Haram is operating with ruthless abandon. This terror group is rampaging across northeastern Nigeria, where reports of slaughter continue. That terror group is now threatening Cameroon as well, and Niger has now refused to assist Nigeria in retaking the area around Baga. Reports continue circulating that 2,000 or more people were killed by Boko Haram since the start of the year there, and that at least 20,000 people have been displaced. Some reportedly drowned attempting to flee across Lake Chad.

Yet, the silence and lack of media reports and access means that this horrific attack isn't getting anywhere near the press coverage of the attacks in Paris.

Cross posted to LGF.

12 Years Later: Remembering 9/11

September 11, 2001. New Yorkers were heading to the polls to vote on the next mayor of the city. It was a morning full of promise and baseball fans were excited about the Yankees' chances of making the playoffs, the Mets thinking about the future, and the start of the new football season. In other words, it was a day not much different than those September days we've been experiencing in the New York City metro area this year.

While everyone was focused on the day ahead, another group of people were thinking about the mission that would forever alter the skyline of NYC and alter history. Al Qaeda's terrorists were already on board four jets bound for New York and Washington DC and had already overpowered the crews.

I was on a NJ Transit train with my dad when I first noticed something wrong at the WTC out of the corner of my eye; it was smoke coming from the upper reaches of the tower.

It was just around 8:45.

The world changed, and I didn't quite realize it.

People watching the morning news didn't know it either at first. But they would soon be glued to broadcasts that showed the horrors of the worst terror attacks ever perpetrated.

The damage done on that morning was nearly impossible to comprehend. In the mere blink of the eye, nearly 3,000 people were condemned to death and the World Trade Center would soon be reduced to a pile of rubble that would burn for weeks on end. Reports would come in that a third plane had struck and damaged the Pentagon.  But the death rattle of the Twin Towers would continue for just under two hours and victims trapped above the fires had to make the choice to stay and choke on the heat and smoke or jump to a certain death. All too many make that decision to jump. Firefighters on the ground also succumbed before the towers fell - falling debris hitting firefighters and fleeing people alike.

Victim Number One would be there to comfort those who fell. Rev. Mychal Judge of the FDNY was comforting fallen firefighters and office workers alike when he was struck and killed by debris. So many people inside the Department and around the City thought so highly of him that he was honored as the first victim of the attacks - so that he could comfort and aid all those many others who were murdered on that day - to guide them to Heaven.

All too many would unfortunately follow him - and not by their own choice.

Here are remembrances of a few of those killed on 9/11, as written by my friend legalbgl for Project 2,996 (and updated to reflect his additional memorializations for 2011 through 2013):

Lt. Col. Jerry Don Dickerson Jr. (2013).
Mary Lenz Wieman (2012).
Mark Francis Broderick (2011).
Captain Patrick J. Brown (2010).
Hagay Shefi (2009).
Alison Marie Wildman (2008).
Daniel Thomas Afflito (2007).

Coming full circle, on May 1, 2011, the United States finally caught up with Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan. In a daring raid on a compound near Pakistan's military academy, US special forces killed bin Laden and captured a treasure trove of intel.  That's small consolation for the thousands of families and friends who still grieve the senseless murder of their loved ones in New York, Washington DC at the Pentagon, and in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. The profound loss is a heavy burden on all those who were there and on those who lost loved ones. While television crews jockeyed for spots overlooking the Ground Zero site, the death of bin Laden would not bring solace to those who lost loved ones, nor would it bring their loved ones back.

Local commemorations are already underway and will continue through the week throughout the region. And there are those in the area who are still suffering from the medical effects of exposure to the air at Ground Zero.

The federal government created the James Zadroga health and compensation fund because of the ongoing health concerns of those who carried out relief and recovery efforts at Ground Zero. More people are seeking assistance via the program, including those emergency responders who came from across the country to spell the FDNY and NYPD and PAPD in the grim task of recovering the remains of those murdered.

Emergency personnel were at Ground Zero around the clock for weeks on end before officials would claim that the site had officially been cleared of remains. Many of them, plus those living near Ground Zero would later become ill from the effects of breathing in all the dust and debris that was pulverized by the collapsing towers, and it is one of the sadder chapters from 9/11 that we are still burying victims of the attacks to this day, including James Zadroga.

People who risked their lives to save others and to help families who lost loved ones find remains of the victims are themselves victims of the attacks. The Zadroga Act isn't perfect by any means and it has come too late for some, but it's a start to compensate and aid families of responders who are suffering from all manner of ailments  attributed to Ground Zero exposure.

The death toll, which was once feared to be more than we could bear - in the tens of thousands, would eventually drop to around 2,742 at the World Trade Center. However, that count continues rising as more emergency personnel working at Ground Zero succumb to ailments attributed to exposures at Ground Zero. The head of the PBA says that the total number of cops who have died from medical ailments related to the 9/11 attacks is greater than the number who died during the attacks themselves. More than 1,100 people have cancers attributed to exposure at Ground Zero. Over 65,000 are registered with the WTC Registry. Some of their names will eventually be added to the roll of those killed in the attacks.

Construction at the site now dominates discussion, though there are unsettling discoveries made from time to time. Workers at the site of the proposed Park 51 / Cordoba House Islamic Center found part of the landing gear of one of the planes wedged between the building and an adjacent one.

The past 10 years have been a near constant reminder of the profound sense of absence. 1WTC (aka the Freedom Tower) has finally recaptured part of the skyline. 1WTC is still under construction but the antenna and external structures are complete. The base and interior work continues.

Construction of the Transit Hub is also underway, and Santiago Calatrava's design now peeks out above ground as well.

The WTC Transit Hub from Greenwich Street at Vesey

Looking down Greenwich St at the WTC Transit Hub and 3 and 4 WTC

4WTC exterior finished; the building needs interior work, but is in its final form.

2 and 3 WTC are only being built as a stub capable of being completed to their originally designed heights. Unless Larry Silverstein receives commitments to lease space, they will remain as stub buildings that provide retail commercial space for the foreseeable future. 4WTC will be opened to business in November. It's likely that work will restart later this year on 3WTC as there have been rumblings of a deal in the works for leases of significant amounts of space in the tower with GroupM. The 1WTC Observatory will take longer to open,  but Conde Nast will be moving into its offices in 1WTC in 2014 and retail spaces in 3 and 4 WTC will be opening in the coming year courtesy of Silverstein and Westfield Properties.

Fiterman Hall

Meanwhile, Fiterman Hall has now been opened for a full year as students from the Borough of Manhattan Community College have been able to use the facility for classes.

While the National 9/11 Memorial opened in time for the 10th anniversary, the National 9/11 Museum at the World Trade Center had been delayed due to an ongoing battle over who is responsible for certain costs. The museum foundation and the Port Authority had fought over hundreds of millions in costs, and the resulting delay meant that the earliest it would open is early 2014.

The delays were made worse as a result of the damage done by Hurricane Sandy. That included flooding of the museum facilities that are under the podium containing the memorial. It turns out that the battle over costs between the memorial foundation and the Port Authority was a blessing in disguise. It meant that facilities weren't finished out and artifacts weren't in place when lower Manhattan was flooded by Sandy. It also means that the facilities will have to address protecting the artifacts from future storms.

Then, there's the cost to operate the museum when it eventually opens in conjunction with the memorial. The WTC Memorial Foundation estimates it will cost $60 million a year to operate the memorial and museum, which is far out of line from other memorials operated by the National Park Service. It makes tremendous sense and it is logical for the 9/11 museum and memorial to be operated by the NPS instead of the private foundation because of cost containment and the ability to manage the myriad details that come along with such a sensitive site and one of national and international importance.

Millions of people have already paid their respects and visited the 9/11 memorial, and the site has fast become a touchstone for those visiting the city. Tourists from around the country and the world flock to the area to see the new construction and to visit the memorial.

One of the stumbling blocks continues to be whether the museum will charge a fee for entry. I've long argued against any kind of entry fee as well as stripping the memorial foundation of the authority to run the facility and instead put the NPS in charge. The NPS does a tremendous job managing sites around the nation, and the memorial and museum should come under the NPS umbrella. However, without Congressional action, the situation will remain in flux and we should expect to see entry fees imposed on those visiting the site (we already see the foundation making "mandatory" suggested donations for access to the memorial). I wouldn't be surprised if the entry fee runs $20 or more. As more than 4 million visit annually, that would mean $80 million in revenues towards operations.

The Port Authority, which owns the entire site, had been building the infrastructure necessary for other components of the site, including the Vehicle Security Center, the PATH transit hub, and the museum. All three are seriously over budget and are years behind schedule. The PATH Transit hub was among the worst offenders. It was supposed to have been completed in 2009 for $2.2 billion, and yet the earliest it may be finished is 2016 at a cost of more than $4 billion.

When one looks at the recently enacted toll and fare hikes, the cost overrun for PATH turns out to be nearly the entire amount of revenue expected to be raised from the hikes. That's inexcusable; the overruns on the transit hub sap the Port Authority's ability to handle other critical infrastructure projects around the region, and commuters to Lower Manhattan and businesses that want to consider Lower Manhattan have to take into account that the World Trade Center area is still one vast construction site.

When one realizes that the Port Authority gave up the trademark rights to the World Trade Center and WTC to a foundation started by a former employee of the agency for $10, you can begin to understand how poorly the authority had handled its assets over the years. A new report by the Bergen Record found that the Port Authority has no record of this deal being done, which makes this whole situation even more bizarre. After all, it's a former head of the agency involved - Guy Tozzoli.  It's why I don't think the agency has managed its assets well, nor handled the rebuilding in a cost-effective and efficient manner.

The Port Authority said Monday that it had no record of its governing board approving a 1986 deal that handed over ownership of the World Trade Center name for $10. And the agency’s top executive at the time said he didn’t recall it ever coming across his desk.

That added to the mystery surrounding how the Port Authority came to sell the vaunted name of its Manhattan landmark to a group run by a retiring agency executive who made millions in the years that followed.

The Christie administration, which jointly steers the agency with New York’s governor, slammed the deal on Monday, in response to a story in The Record a day earlier.

“You can be sure that would never happen under this administration,” Christie spokesman Michael Drewniak said. “I’d venture to say that if something like that was done today, it would probably draw the attention of the United States Attorney’s Office.”

The Port Authority essentially handed over one of its most valuable assets to a former executive who has made a ton of coin over the deal, and has even cost the agency money to continue using the name. Had the agency retained the rights to the name and licensed the name to other entities as the WTCA has done, the Port Authority would have had millions of dollars of revenue that it could have used to fund ongoing operations and projects.

Meanwhile, nearby transit projects are slowly inching towards completion, including the Fulton Transit Center a block east of Ground Zero. That project, run by the MTA, is similarly over budget and late. However, it's far closer to completion than the PATH hub. When finished, the Fulton Center would link with the PATH transit hub by the Dey Street connector, and ultimately those working at the World Financial Center would be able to access Fulton Center without having to travel outside. It's likely to be opened in time for when 4WTC is opened for business later this year.

The skyline will never be the same. Neither will our hearts, which are heavy with the loss and supreme sacrifices made on 9/11 by the rescue personnel who bravely rushed up the towers even as people were racing to get out of the towers or gasping as people were forced to jump to their deaths to avoid being burned alive in the fires that racked the towers.

We remember.

Tribute in Light

Looking up at 1WTC and 7WTC.

More photos of Ground Zero and the rebuilding at the World Trade Center, as taken from 4WTC, which is scheduled to open next year.

The WTC as seen from Hoboken.

For my prior year recollections and postings, see September 11, 2012, 10 Years Later,  September 11, 2010, September 11, 2009,  September 11, 2008, September 11, 2007, September 11, 2006, and September 11, 2005.

Remembering 9/11 Eleven Years Later

On a morning not all that different than the one forecast for today, it was a bolt from the blue. The skies over New York City were a crisp bright blue with nary a cloud in a sky. It was a morning full of promise.

September 11, 2001 and New Yorkers were heading to the polls to vote on the next mayor of the city. People were talking baseball and the upcoming football season, just as they are doing now. Talk of the  Yankees making the playoffs. While everyone was focused on the day ahead, al Qaeda's terrorists were already on board four jets bound for New York and Washington DC and had already overpowered the crews.

I was on a NJ Transit train with my dad when I first noticed something wrong at the WTC out of the corner of my eye; it was smoke coming from the upper reaches of the tower.

It was just around 8:45.

The world changed, and I didn't quite realize it.

People watching the morning news didn't know it either at first. But they would soon be glued to broadcasts that showed the horrors of the worst terror attacks ever perpetrated.

The damage done on that morning was nearly impossible to comprehend. In the mere blink of the eye, nearly 3,000 people were condemned to death and the World Trade Center would soon be reduced to a pile of rubble that burned for weeks on end. Reports would come in that a third plane had struck and damaged the Pentagon.  But the death rattle of the Twin Towers would continue for just under two hours and victims trapped above the fires had to make the choice to stay and choke on the heat and smoke or jump to a certain death. All too many make that decision to jump. Firefighters on the ground also succumbed before the towers fell - falling debris hitting firefighters and fleeing people alike.

Victim Number One would be there to comfort those who fell. Rev. Mychal Judge of the FDNY was comforting fallen firefighters and office workers alike when he was struck and killed by debris. So many people inside the Department and around the City thought so highly of him that he was honored as the first victim of the attacks - so that he could comfort and aid all those many others who were murdered on that day - to guide them to Heaven.

All too many would unfortunately follow him - and not by their own choice.

Lower Manhattan was engulfed in smoke and debris as the towers fell. Emergency personnel, still choking on the dust that would swirl through Lower Manhattan for days and weeks to come, quickly moved to seek to help those who may have been trapped beneath all the rubble. They formed bucket brigades, moving debris a handful at a time. Occasionally, the remains of a victim would be discovered and crews would solemnly remove the remains.

Coming full circle, on May 1, 2011, the world learned that the United States finally caught up with Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan. In a daring raid on a compound near Pakistan's military academy, US special forces killed bin Laden and captured a treasure trove of intel that will help the intelligence community and military plan further campaigns against the terrorists who did so much damage.  Yet, that pales in comparison to what happened on that fateful day and the nearly 3,000 people murdered across New York, Washington DC at the Pentagon, and in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. The profound loss is a heavy burden on all those who were there and on those who lost loved ones.

Preparing for 9/11 ceremonies at 1WTC.

Preparing for ceremonies outside the FDNY 10 Truck House on Liberty.

Here are remembrances of a few of those killed on 9/11, as written by my friend legalbgl for Project 2,996: Captain Patrick J. Brown (2010).
Hagay Shefi (2009).
Alison Marie Wildman (2008).
Daniel Thomas Afflito (2007).

The NYPD will be issuing twitters for each of those policemen killed during the attacks. Local commemorations are already underway and will continue through the week. However, the commemoration at Ground Zero will be different; for the first time politicians will not be pontificating or making speeches. The commemorations will be confined to a recitation of the names of those murdered in the attacks. That's caused some handwringing from some who think that politicians gathering at Ground Zero to recite the Pledge of Allegiance,  Declaration of Independence and the Gettysburg Address to poems by John Donne and Langston Hughes adds gravitas since it is something that brings people together.

The federal government created the James Zadroga health and compensation fund because of the ongoing health concerns of those who carried out relief and recovery efforts at Ground Zero. The fund is on the cusp of recognizing that exposure to Ground Zero dust was toxic and caused cancer.

After an 11-year battle, the federal government is poised to finally recognize that people who lived near Ground Zero — as well as rescue and recovery workers who sifted through the toxic rubble there — got cancer as a result. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health — which is responsible for deciding whether cancer should be among the illnesses covered by the James Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act — is expected to announce the findings as early as tomorrow. Michael Barasch and Noah Kushlefsky, two lawyers who represent thousands of first responders and residents, said legislative aides involved in drafting the new regulations and Victim Compensation Fund staffers told them that about 50 cancers would be included.

While that is great news for those who are registered with the fund, it's cold comfort to those whose lives have already been cut short.

Emergency personnel were at Ground Zero around the clock for weeks on end before officials would claim that the site had officially been cleared of remains. Many of them, plus those living near Ground Zero would later become ill from the effects of breathing in all the dust and debris that was pulverized by the collapsing towers, and it is one of the sadder chapters from 9/11 that we are still burying victims of the attacks to this day, including James Zadroga.

People who risked their lives to save others and to help families who lost loved ones find remains of the victims are themselves victims of the attacks. The Zadroga Act isn't perfect by any means and it has come too late for some, but it's a start to compensate and aid families of responders who are suffering from all manner of ailments  attributed to Ground Zero exposure.

We cannot allow petty political differences prevent the delivery of critical aid to these emergency personnel and those who selflessly strode into the unknown to help provide rescue and recovery from the debris of Ground Zero all while environmental agencies proclaimed the air was safe to breathe - it wasn't.

Even after the fires were being put out and officials claimed that the site had been cleared of remains, it turns out that victims' remains would be discovered months and even years thereafter on buildings surrounding Ground Zero including the rooftop of the former Deutsche Bank building. The death toll, which was once feared to be more than we could bear - in the tens of thousands, would eventually drop to around 2,742 at the World Trade Center. That count may rise once again as more and more emergency personnel working at Ground Zero succumb to ailments attributed to exposures at Ground Zero.

Reflecting the rising 1WTC.

The past 10 years have been a near constant reminder of the profound sense of absence. 1WTC (aka the Freedom Tower) recaptures only part of the skyline. 1WTC is still under construction, but the main tower erection is complete. The antenna that will bring the tower to its ultimate height of 1,776 feet remains.

3WTC with 4WTC in background.

4WTC  has also been erected, but the same story can't be said of either 2 or 3 WTC nor the WTC memorial or PATH Transit Hub. 2 and 3 WTC are only being built as a stub capable of being completed to their originally designed heights. Unless Larry Silverstein receives commitments to lease space, they will remain as stub buildings that provide retail commercial space.

Fiterman Hall

After years of wrangling, Fiterman Hall is now open and students from the Borough of Manhattan Community College are once again able to work in buildings rather than trailers that lined their West Side campus.

While the National 9/11 memorial opened in time for the 10th anniversary, the National 9/11 museum at the World Trade Center has been delayed due to an ongoing battle over who is responsible for certain costs. The museum foundation and the Port Authority are fighting over hundreds of millions in costs, and the resulting delay means that the earliest it would open is likely 2014. That's completely inexcusable.

Aides to Mr. Bloomberg and Mr. Cuomo have so far been unable to resolve their differences over which government agencies will pay the operating costs of the museum, which is intended to document the terrorist attacks of 2001 and honor the nearly 3,000 victims. The two sides also remain at odds over who will have oversight of the museum and the surrounding memorial. The negotiations are further complicated because Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey must sign off on any agreement before it can take effect. Mr. Cuomo and Mr. Christie together control the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which owns the World Trade Center site. Mr. Bloomberg is chairman of the Sept. 11 foundation, which controls the National September 11 Memorial and Museum, and oversees commemorative events at the site. With work on the museum at a standstill for nearly a year, fund-raising and donations have fallen, and exhibits are gathering dust in fabrication shops in Buffalo and Santa Fe, N.M., according to museum executives. The delay means that the museum may not open before construction on 1 World Trade Center, formerly known as the Freedom Tower, is finished in early 2014. Aides to Mr. Bloomberg and Mr. Cuomo said they hoped that the 11th anniversary, on Tuesday, might create pressure for a last-minute deal. Late last week, the two sides began circulating proposals to resolve the yearlong impasse.

The Memorial Grove and WTC Museum with 1WTC and 7WTC in background.

Then, there's the cost to operate the museum when it eventually opens in conjunction with the memorial. The WTC Memorial Foundation estimates it will cost $60 million a year to operate the memorial and museum, which is far out of line from other memorials operated by the National Park Service. It makes tremendous sense and it is logical for the 9/11 museum and memorial to be operated by the NPS instead of the private foundation because of cost containment and the ability to manage the myriad details that come along with such a sensitive site and one of international importance.

And should it surprise anyone that a deal was finally reached between the Port Authority and the Memorial Foundation right before the anniversary? The new deal likely means that the earliest that the museum will open is September 2013, though it's likely that portions will not open until 2014 at the earliest.

One of the stumbling blocks continues to be whether the museum will charge a fee for entry. I've long argued against any kind of entry fee, and that Congress must make that happen, but to this point, Congress has blocked any such efforts.

The museum was supposed to open this month, but construction all but ceased a year ago because of a funding squabble between the foundation and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which owns the land the memorial sits on.
Daniels said it will take at least a year for the museum to open once construction resumes, meaning the site may not be fully complete until at least 2014.
The failure to open the museum on time has thrown off the foundation's financial planning. Officials had expected to use the museum, being built mostly with money from various government agencies, plus private donations, as its main source of revenue.
While visitors will be allowed into the above-ground portions of the memorial for free, the foundation plans to charge people to descend into the museum's exhibition space, where they will see portraits of the nearly 3,000 victims, hear oral histories of the tragedy and view artifacts such as the staircase World Trade Center workers used to flee on 9/11.
The admission price hasn't been set. Foundation officials say they may also charge a "suggested donation" where visitors would be allowed to enter for free but would be strongly encouraged to pay a yet-undecided amount.
But if the museum gets the 2 million visitors a year the foundation expects, a $12 fee, like the one charged at the memorial to the victims of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, would cover 40 percent of the operating costs. More money will be generated through fundraising and the sale of memorabilia.

The NPS does a tremendous job managing sites around the nation, and the memorial and museum should come under the NPS umbrella, although the NPS has said that it can't afford to take on the challenge of running the site with its own budget issues.

While a deal has been reached, the details have not yet been released. Since we're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars involved, it will be interesting to see which side is responsible for what.

The Port Authority, which owns the entire site, had been building the infrastructure necessary for other components of the site, including the Vehicle Security Center, the PATH transit hub, and the museum. All three are seriously over budget and are years behind schedule. The PATH Transit hub was among the worst offenders. It was supposed to have been completed in 2009 for $2.2 billion, and yet the earliest it may be finished is 2016 at a cost of roughly $4 billion.

When one looks at the recently enacted toll and fare hikes, the cost overrun for PATH turns out to be nearly the entire amount of revenue expected to be raised from the hikes. That's inexcusable; the overruns on the transit hub sap the Port Authority's ability to handle other critical infrastructure projects around the region, and commuters to Lower Manhattan and businesses that want to consider Lower Manhattan have to take into account that the World Trade Center area is still one vast construction site.

 Meanwhile, nearby transit projects are slowly inching towards completion, including the Fulton Transit Center a block east of Ground Zero. That project, run by the MTA, is overbudget and late. However, it's far closer to completion than the PATH hub. When finished, the Fulton Center would link with the PATH transit hub by the Dey Street connector, and ultimately those working at the World Financial Center would be able to access Fulton Center without having to travel outside.

The new memorial has welcomed more than 4.5 million visitors since it opened last year, exceeding expectations and there has been new construction and opportunities throughout Lower Manhattan. And yet, the site will always be tinged with sadness. The skyline will never be the same. Neither will our hearts, which are heavy with the loss and supreme sacrifices made on 9/11 by the rescue personnel who bravely rushed up the towers even as people were racing to get out of the towers or gasping as people were forced to jump to their deaths to avoid being burned alive in the fires that racked the towers.

We remember.

UPDATE:
It appears that the Port Authority's claims that the Memorial Foundation owed hundreds of millions of dollars was unsupported. The Memorial Foundation will give the Port Authority $17 million to restart work on the museum and the Port Authority will find ways to save $150 million. The Foundation also has given assurances that it will cover what it expects to be $60 million in operating costs per year once the museum opens.

Meanwhile, work on the Vehicle Security Center continues. The VSC is located adjacent to the entry area to the memorial and will eventually be the portal for vehicles that will supply the site. That too had been years behind schedule due to issues with the demolition of the former Deutsche Bank Building. A deal to rebuild the St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church was also finalized in the past year, requiring the Port Authority to build a platform atop which the church will be located. As with the museum funding claims, the Port Authority was making demands that were unsupported by the facts.

UPDATE:
Time Lapse of the construction of 1WTC:


UPDATE:
More photos of Ground Zero and the rebuilding at the World Trade Center, as taken from 4WTC, which is scheduled to open next year.

For my prior year recollections and postings, see 10 Years Later,  September 11, 2010, September 11, 2009,  September 11, 2008, September 11, 2007, September 11, 2006, and September 11, 2005.

Is Assad's Regime On Verge of Collapsing?

According to the recently defected former Prime Minister Riyad Hijab, Bashar al-Assad's regime controls no more than 30% of the country and it's on the verge of collapsing.

“Based on my experience and my position, the regime is falling apart morally, materially, economically,” the former official, Riyad Farid Hijab, said at a news conference in Amman, Jordan. “Its military is rusting, and it only controls 30 percent of Syria’s territory.”

He added that many high-level civilian and military officials in Syria — “leaders with dignity” — were waiting to defect. Mr. Hijab said he fled the Syrian capital, Damascus, because the government threatened his family and had no reasonable means to end the violence. He also urged the opposition to unify and to move ahead with plans for a transitional government and “a civilian democratic state that preserves the right, justice and dignity of all Syrians.”

But he said he had no interest in a formal position. “I have sacrificed myself in the campaign of righteousness,” he said. “I don’t want to satisfy anyone but God.”

Mr. Hijab’s claims about the weakness of the Assad government could not be independently verified, and he gave few details to support his harsh assessment. A Sunni technocrat from the eastern city of Deir al-Zour — which has been enduring shelling and fighting for weeks — Mr. Hijab was not a member of Mr. Assad’s inner circle, and he was appointed to the position of prime minister only in June.

There's no way to know for sure just how secure Assad's regime is, but there have been indications that Assad's lost control of vast swaths of the country. His security forces have been hard pressed to retain control of Syria's two biggest cities - Damascus and Aleppo. Rebels managed to assassinate key security members in a bombing several weeks ago. There have been a steady but increasing stream of defections, including Hijab.

It also appears that Assad's brother was grievously injured in that July 18 bombing. A Russian minister also indicated that Assad's willing to give up power:

Quoting Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, the newspaper reported that Maher Assad's condition "is very serious and he is fighting for his life."

The July blast took place during a high-level meeting at the state security ministry in the capital. Among those killed were Defense Minister Daoud Rajha, former Defense Minister Hassan Turkmani, and Assad brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, who served as the country's deputy defense minister. The suicide attack was carried out by a bodyguard for the president's inner circle, a Syrian security source said at the time. Until now it was unclear whether Maher Assad had attended the meeting.

Bogdanov added that President Assad is prepared to give up power, according to the Al-Watan report. "We ask that this issue be dealt with quickly to bring about a solution to the crisis," he said. "We are speaking with the opposition and the Syrian government on a daily basis."

However, Assad's security forces continue the bloodletting and no one within the security establishment is willing to tell Assad that his time is done for the sake of all Syrians. He's apparently content to continue the violence to preserve his power. The Russians have moved to deny Bogdanov's claims, which further suggests that Assad isn't going anywhere - at least for now. They claim that Bogdanov never gave any interview to al-Watan, which other media outlets quickly re-reported.

There are also indications that Russia and Iran are busy propping up Assad's regime, even as Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are assisting the rebels.

At the same time, al Qaeda and other terror groups, including Hizbullah are looking to fill the power vacuum, which is something that Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Israel are all keenly hoping to avoid.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation suspended Syria from its membership as another UN official envoy is visiting Syria so as to draw attention to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Syria. The UN mission will fail just as surely as Kofi Annan's attempts did; Assad has no intention of giving up power, or stopping the violence, and rebel forces are just as unwilling to stop their own efforts as they continue to maintain and gain territory, even if those gains come at a significant humanitarian cost or that retribution for being part of Assad's government includes war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Aleppo Besieged As Assad and Rebels Claim Victories

The fighting in and around Aleppo, Syria's commercial hub, continues and the number of refugees is soaring. 200,000 have fled the city as a result of the brutal fighting on the streets and in the buildings of multiple neighborhoods around the city.

Both Assad and rebel forces have claimed victories. Assad's forces have claimed that they've overrun rebel held areas and retaken the city after more than a week's worth of artillery assaults and airstrikes.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group, reported heavy shelling in Salaheddine today, suggesting the district or parts of it are still under rebel control. An officer interviewed by the state-run TV channel said “mercenaries” from other countries, including Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, were helping the rebels in Aleppo.

Troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have been battling rebels who seized several neighborhoods in Aleppo, Syria’s most populous city and its commercial hub, since last week. The army pounded the city with heavy artillery and helicopter gunships, opposition groups say.

Motee al-Bateen, a member of the executive committee of the Syrian National Council, the main opposition group, said he couldn’t confirm that Salaheddine has fallen into army hands.

“How much territory the opposition holds is not important,” he said by telephone from Istanbul today. “What’s important is to engage the troops in cycles of attack-and- retreat to exhaust them.”

Al-Bateen said the army was using mortars, rocket launchers and tanks to shell areas from a distance and avoid engaging rebels in close combat.

Rebels note that despite the artillery and airstrikes, they've continued to hold on to Aleppo. Moreover, they've noted that Assad's forces haven't invaded the city en masse, precisely because they'd be facing an uphill battle in a brutal urban setting.

Rebel forces also announced that they captured a significant military base near Aleppo. They managed to capture the position after heavy fighting, and gained heavy weapons to supplement their own weapons.

Pro-Assad groups have claimed that Assad's forces have assassinated a Saudi official, Bandar bin Sultan, who they claim involved in plotting to eliminate key members of the Syrian defense and intel establishment earlier this month. However, there's no evidence to substantiate those claims, but it does show the animosity between Syria and Saudi Arabia is growing. The Saudis have been working to bring Assad's regime to an end, both by diplomacy and by covert means.

Meanwhile, another Syrian official has defected. At the same time, a Chinese news outlet is reporting that Assad's continuing to claim that he seeks to carry out the terms of the Arab League/Kofi Annan plan to end the violence. It's just so much talk since Assad could have simply brought the violence to an end by reining in his brutal crackdown. He has no intention of giving up power peacefully, and is seeking retribution against those that questioned his regime.

At the same time, concerns are mounting that al Qaeda and other Islamists are taking advantage of the chaos to gain a foothold in Syria.

And Then There Was One

Since the 9/11 attacks, the US has gone after al Qaeda all around the globe, and those efforts have paid off. The group is now down to essentially one recognizable face - Ayman al Zawahiri, who was Osama bin Laden's right hand man since the group came into existence.

Zawahiri is believed to be in the frontier provinces of Pakistan, and he's probably spending most of his time trying not to get caught by US spymasters who have the quite lethal UAVs at their disposal.

As a result, according to senior U.S. counterterrorism officials, there now remains only one leader of any consequence in al Qaeda and that is Ayman al Zawahiri, the tetchy Egyptian surgeon who became the head of the group following the death of its founder, Osama bin Laden, in a U.S. Navy SEAL raid in Pakistan in May 2011.

Zawahiri, presumably, is keenly aware of the fate of so many of his longtime colleagues in al Qaeda. He will be expending considerable energy not to end up on the business end of a missile fired by a CIA drone if he, too, is hiding in the Pakistani tribal regions where the drone strikes have been concentrated.

Meanwhile, Zawahiri faces an almost impossible task to follow through on al Qaeda's main mission: attacking the United States, or failing that, one of its close allies.
Al Qaeda hasn't conducted a successful attack in the West since the bombings on London's transportation system on July 7, 2005, and of course, the group hasn't succeeded in attacking the United States for more than a decade.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula remains committed to carrying out attacks against the US and its interests around the world but hasn't managed to successfully carry out the kind of high profile attacks that the group was known for previously. Attempts to take down airlines have failed, though the group only has to do so once in order to achieve its aims.

It's a far cry from the 9/11 attacks and the terror group's largest effort since the 9/11 attacks was in the London subway bombings in 2005.

The group remains committed to carrying out attacks, but the threat has morphed into concerns about lone wolf individuals or groups - terrorists who share goals but aren't directly tied to al Qaeda or Zawahiri.

Just because there are lesser known terrorists (though that list still includes Adam Gadahn and Adnan G. El Shukrijumah) involved in the group doesn't mean we should discount the threat. We need to recognize the work done to get to this point, and the hard work ahead in trying to keep the nation safe from these terror groups and individuals who are intent upon doing harm to the US. At the same time, the risks from a successful attack are quite low to most Americans.

The Rebuilding of Ground Zero, Part 162

Despite the fact that there's been no work done on the WTC 9/11 Museum for months, that doesn't mean that the fight over what the museum will contain and display hasn't continued.

I find it mind-boggling that there's a fight over whether to include photos of the 19 Islamic terrorists who carried out the attacks. We need to see the faces of those who are responsible. It's like having a museum about the Holocaust and not including any of the names and faces of the key Nazi officials behind the Wanasee Conference and the orders to carry out genocide against the Jewish people.

Displaying the photos is necessary and critical to the museum's mission to reflect what happened before, during, and after the 9/11 terror attacks.

New York City’s fire chief protested that such a display would “honor” the terrorists who destroyed the World Trade Center. A New York Post editorial called the idea “appalling.” Groups representing rescuers, survivors and victims’ families asked how anyone could even think of showing the faces of the men who killed their relatives, colleagues and friends.

The anger took some museum officials by surprise.

“You don’t create a museum about the Holocaust and not say that it was the Nazis who did it,” said Joseph Daniels, chief executive of the memorial and museum foundation.

Such are the exquisite sensitivities that surround every detail in the creation of the National September 11 Memorial Museum, which is being built on land that many revere as hallowed ground. During eight years of planning, every step has been muddied with contention. There have been bitter fights over the museum’s financing, which have delayed its opening until at least next year, as well as continuing arguments over its location, seven stories below ground; which relics should be exhibited; and where unidentified human remains should rest.

Even the souvenir key chains to be sold in the gift shop have become a focus of rancor.

But nothing has been more fraught than figuring out how to tell the story.

The entire process has been an absolute mess, as my ongoing Rebuilding of Ground Zero series (and the preceding Battle for Ground Zero) has detailed for nearly a decade. Every proposed move has been scrutinized and yet key details are likely to get short shrift.

Yet, I think the most important detail that has yet to be worked out is the one that has tremendous symbolic meaning. After all, we're talking about the National September 11 Memorial Museum, and yet museum officials are contemplating imposing entry fees to defray the costs for operating the museum. That's absolute hogwash, and Congress needs to set aside the necessary funds to make sure that the museum is free to the public.

Future generations need unfettered access to the site to understand what happened, what was lost, and what the ongoing effects are on those who went to Ground Zero to help with the rescue and recovery operations.

Foiled Underwear Bomb Plot Linked With UAV Airstrike in Yemen

Well, as I suspected yesterday, the foiled underwear bomb plot and the UAV raid that killed a major al Qaeda figure (and who was linked to the USS Cole bombing) were connected.

"I was told by the White House that they are connected, that they are part of the same operation," Representative Peter King told CNN a day after news of the intercepted bomb that authorities said was intended to make its way to an airplane bound for the United States or other Western country.
King and U.S. security officials did not say what happened to the suspected suicide bomber or if he was killed in the strike.

"The person who actually had the bomb is no longer a threat," King said.
John Brennan, President Barack Obama's top counter terrorism adviser and a former CIA official, told ABC's "Good Morning America" program that authorities are "confident that neither the device nor the intended user of this device pose a threat to us."

On Monday, the Obama administration said Middle East authorities had seized an improved underwear bomb within the last 10 days that they said shows al Qaeda's determination to build bombs that can pass through airport security systems.

A day earlier, two Yemeni members of al Qaeda were killed by a missile strike on their car, although Washington and Yemen do not acknowledge U.S. drone attacks on militants in the country.

News of the foiled plot was embargoed by the Administration until after the UAV airstrike, which is a smart move since letting on that the plot was busted might have tipped off those involved in the plot that they were being followed closely by US and foreign intel services.

UPDATE:
The same person who passed along the information necessary to thwart the newest underwear bombing plot is responsible for the intel that led to the UAV airstrike killing Fahd al-Quso. Quso was involved in the attack on the USS Cole.

The officials also said that a successful Predator attack that killed Fahd al-Quso over the weekend was related to the plot and was a “part of a 1-2 blow against Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP),” the north African affiliate of the al-Qaida terrorist network. Al Quso, described as director of external operations at AQAP, was “involved (in the bomb plot) in an intimate fashion,” said the senior administration official.

What makes the newest iteration of the underwear bomb so dangerous is that it uses far less metal, making it even more difficult for metal detectors and scanners to pick up the device.

The US Army Releases Bin Laden Papers Online

The US has decided to release 17 declassified documents captured during the raid that killed Osama bin Laden last year.

The letters are posted on the Combatting Terrorism Center website of the US Army at West Point.

The accompanying report provides context, including how al Qaeda views itself and its allies, coreligionists, and relationships with countries such as Iran and Pakistan. For instance:

Al-Qa`ida Ties to Iran and Pakistan?
While not extensive, the discussions of Iran and Pakistan in the documents suggest that al-Qa`ida’s relations with both countries were fraught with difficulties.
• References to Iran show that the relationship is not one of alliance, but of indirect and unpleasant negotiations over the release of detained jihadis and their families, including members of Bin Ladin’s family. The detention of prominent
al-Qa`ida members seems to have sparked a campaign of threats, taking hostages
and indirect negotiations between al-Qa`ida and Iran that have been drawn out
for years and may still be ongoing.
• The discussion of Pakistan is scarce and inconclusive. Although references are
made about “trusted Pakistani brothers,” there are no explicit references to any
institutional Pakistani support for al-Qa`ida or its operatives.

It's also interesting to note that bin Laden had begun to realize that his jihadis were targeting fellow Muslims, and that the campaign of jihad was backfiring against his intentions - to get the US out of the Middle East.

The following is a summary of the 17 documents (from the downloaded English version):

Description of the Abbottabad Documents Provided to the CTC
SOCOM-2012-0000003
This letter was authored by Usama bin Ladin and addressed to Shaykh Mahmud (`Atiyya Abdul Rahman) on 27 August 2010. Mahmud is specifically directed to tell “Basir,” who is Nasir al-Wuhayshi (Abu Basir), the leader of al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula, to remain in his role (presumably in response to a request from Abu Basir that Anwar al-`Awlaqi take his position), and for him to send “us a detailed and lengthy” version of al-`Awlaqi’s resume. `Atiyya is also told to ask Basir and Anwar al-`Awlaqi for their “vision in detail about the situation” in Yemen. References are also made in the letter to the 2010 floods in Pakistan, a letter from Bin Ladin’s son Khalid to `Abd al-Latif, al-Qa`ida’s media plan for the 9/11 anniversary, and the need for the “brothers coming from Iran” to be placed in safe locations.

SOCOM-2012-0000004
This document is a letter authored by the American al-Qa`ida spokesman Adam Gadahn to an unknown recipient and was written in late January 2011. In the first part of the document Gadahn provides strategic advice regarding al-Qa`ida’s media plans for the tenth anniversary of 9/11. The letter is in essence a response to many of the requests/queries that Bin Ladin makes in his letter to `Atiyya dated October 2010 (SOCOM-2012-0000015), particularly those concerning a media strategy for the ten-year anniversary of 9/11. In other parts of the document Gadahn incisively criticizes the tactics and targeting calculus of the Islamic State of Iraq (AQI/ISI) and the Pakistani Taliban (TTP); he strongly advocates for al-Qa`ida to publicly dissociate itself from both groups. The document concludes with a draft statement, which provides a candid assessment of these issues.

SOCOM-2012-0000005
This document is a letter dated 7 August 2010 from “Zamarai” (Usama bin Ladin) to Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr, the leader of the Somali militant group Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahidin, which merged with al-Qa`ida after Bin Ladin’s death. The document is a response to a letter Bin Ladin received from al-Zubayr in which he requested formal unity with al-Qa`ida and either consulted Bin Ladin on the question of declaring an Islamic state in Somalia or informed him that he was about to declare one. In Bin Ladin’s response, he politely declines al-Shabab’s request for formal unity with al-Qa`ida.

SOCOM-2012-0000006
This document is a letter believed to have been composed in December 2010 and its content relates to SOCOM-2012-0000005. The letter is addressed to Azmarai, perhaps a typo or misspelling of the nickname Zamarai (a nickname or kunya for Bin Ladin). While the identity of the author is unclear, the familiar tone and implicit critique of Bin Ladin’s policy vis-a-vis al-Shabab suggest that this is from a high ranking personality, possibly Ayman al-Zawahiri. Referring to “our friend’s letter” and the perspective of the “brothers…[who might have been] too concerned about inflating the size and growth of al-Qa`ida,” the author of the document urges the receiver to “reconsider your opinion not to declare the accession [i.e. formal merger] of the brothers of Somalia…” This is clearly a reference to al-Qa`ida’s potential merger with al-Shabab and suggests that al-Qa`ida’s relationship with the “affiliates” is a subject of internal debate. If indeed the author of the letter is Ayman al-Zawahiri this could be an indication of a major fissure over a key strategic question at the pinnacle of the organization (for different interpretations of this letter, see Appendix of “Letters from Abbottabad”).

SOCOM-2012-0000007
This letter is authored by Mahmud al-Hasan (`Atiyya) and Abu Yahya al-Libi and addressed to the amir of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hakimullah Mahsud. It is dated 3 December 2010 and is sharply critical of the ideology and tactics of the TTP. The letter makes it clear that al-Qa`ida’s senior leaders had serious concerns about the TTP’s trajectory inside Pakistan, and the impact the group’s misguided operations might have on al-Qa`ida and other militant groups in the region. The authors identify several errors committed by the group, specifically Hakimullah Mahsud’s arrogation of privileges and positions beyond what was appropriate as the TTP’s amir; the TTP’s use of indiscriminate violence and killing of Muslim civilians; and the group’s use of kidnapping. `Atiyya and al-Libi also take issue with Mahsud labeling al-Qa`ida members as “guests” and the attempts made by other groups (presumably the TTP) to siphon off al-Qa`ida members. The authors threaten that if actions are not taken to correct these mistakes, “we shall be forced to take public and firm legal steps from our side.”

SOCOM-2012-0000008
This letter was originally an exchange between Jaysh al-Islam and `Atiyya that was forwarded first to a certain `Abd al-Hamid (and presumably to Bin Ladin later). The gist of Jaysh al-Islam’s letter makes it known that the group is in need of financial assistance “to support jihad,” and that the group is seeking `Atiyya’s legal advice on three matters: 1) the permissibility of accepting financial assistance from other militant Palestinian groups (e.g., Fatah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad); 2) the permissibility of investing funds in the stock market in support of jihad; and 3) the permissibility of striking or killing drug traffickers in order to use their money, and even drugs, to lure their enemies who could in turn be used by Jaysh al-Islam as double-agents. `Atiyya’s response, written sometime between 24 October 2006 and 22 November 2006, is cordial but distant, responding to the questions but refraining from giving any strategic advice.

SOCOM-2012-0000009
This document is part of a longer letter which was not released to the CTC. It is not clear who authored the letter or to whom it was addressed. It discusses the potential need to change the name of “Qa`idat al-Jihad.” The author is of the view that the abridging of the name “al-Qa`ida” has “lessened Muslims’ feelings that we belong to them.” The author is further concerned that since the name “al-Qa`ida” lacks religious connotations, it has allowed the United States to launch a war on “al-Qa`ida” without offending Muslims. The author proposed a list of new names that capture Islamic theological themes: Ta’ifat al-tawhid wa-al-jihad (Monotheism and Jihad Group), Jama`at wahdat al-Muslimin (Muslim Unity Group), Hizb tawhid al-Umma al-Islamiyya (Islamic Nation Unification Party) and Jama`at tahrir al-aqsa (Al-Aqsa Liberation Group).

SOCOM-2012-0000010
This letter is authored by “Abu `Abdallah” (Usama bin Ladin), addressed to “Shaykh Mahmud” (`Atiyya) and dated 26 April 2011 – a week before bin Ladin’s death. In it, Bin Ladin outlines his response to the “Arab Spring,” proposing two different strategies. The first strategy pertains to the Arab World and entails “inciting people who have not yet revolted and exhort[ing] them to rebel against the rulers (khuruj ‘ala al-hukkam)”; the second strategy concerns Afghanistan and it entails continuing to evoke the obligation of jihad there. The letter also makes reference to a wide variety of topics including: the scarcity of communications from Iraq, “the brothers coming from Iran,” and hostages held by “our brothers in the Islamic Maghreb” and in Somalia. The document also briefly discusses Bin Ladin’s sons, his courier, Shaykh Abu Muhammad (Ayman al-Zawahiri), and other individuals of interest.

SOCOM-2012-0000011
This letter, dated 28 March 2007, is addressed to a legal scholar by the name of Hafiz Sultan, and it is authored by someone who is of Egyptian origin. The author makes it explicit that he was alarmed by al-Qa`ida in Iraq’s conduct and he urges Sultan to write to that group’s leaders to correct their ways. The author also asks for legal guidance on the use of chlorine gas, which he appears not to support. A reference is also made to “the brothers in Lebanon” and the need to arrange “to have one of their representatives visit us in the near future.” A message from the “brothers in Algeria” is also included.

SOCOM-2012-0000012
This letter dated 11 June 2009 was written by `Atiyya to the “honorable shaykh.” It is possible that it was addressed to Usama bin Ladin, but it may have been addressed to another senior leader. The majority of the letter provides details on the release of detained jihadi “brothers” and their families from Iran and an indication that more are expected to be released, including Bin Ladin’s family. It seems that their release was partially in response to covert operations by al-Qa`ida against Iran and its interests.

SOCOM-2012-0000013
This is a draft that formed the basis of a publicly available document, part four in a series of statements that Ayman al-Zawahiri released in response to the “Arab Spring.” Through the document one can observe al-Qa`ida’s editing process (reflected in the editor’s comments highlighted in green and in a bold font). While it is not clear if Bin Ladin himself did the editing, whoever did so has solid grammatical foundations and prefers a more self-effacing writing style than al-Zawahiri. The edits were not included in al-Zawahiri’s final speech which was released in a video on 4 March 2011 on jihadi forums. Of the 12 proposed corrections only one appears in al-Zawahiri’s speech.

SOCOM-2012-0000014
This document consists of two letters addressed to “Abu `Abd-al-Rahman,” almost certainly `Atiyya `Abd al-Rahman. It was sent by an operative who knows `Atiyya and is a religious student with ties to the senior shaykhs and clerics in Saudi Arabia. While the letters are not dated, their contents suggest they were composed soon after January 2007; they read very much like an intelligence assessment, designed to provide `Atiyya with some perspective on how al-Qa`ida generally, and the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) more specifically, are perceived amongst Saudi scholars of varying degrees of prominence. The author provides `Atiyya with brief summaries of private meetings the author had with certain scholars, with the clear intent of evaluating the level of support that al-Qa`ida enjoys from some relatively prominent members of the Saudi religious establishment.

SOCOM-2012-0000015
This document is a letter dated 21 October 2010 from Bin Ladin to “Shaykh Mahmud” (`Atiyya). The letter is primarily focused on issues in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region. In the letter Bin Ladin specifically comments on: the security situation in Waziristan and the need to relocate al-Qa`ida members from the region; counter surveillance issues associated with the movement of his son Hamza within Pakistan; the appointment of `Atiyya’s three deputies; various al-Sahab videos and the media plan for the tenth anniversary of 9/11; the release of an Afghan prisoner held by al-Qa`ida; and the trial of Faisal Shahzad. Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abu Yahya al-Libi, Saif al-`Adl, and Adam Gadahn are also mentioned in the document.

SOCOM-2012-0000016
This document is a letter addressed to “Abu Basir” (Nasir al-Wuhayshi, leader of al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula - AQAP) from an unidentified author, most likely Usama bin Ladin and/or `Atiyya. The letter is in part a response to specific requests for guidance from AQAP’s leadership. The author specifically advises AQAP to focus on targeting the United States, not the Yemeni government or security forces. The author also discusses media strategy and the importance of AQAP’s relations with Yemen’s tribes.

SOCOM-2012-0000017
This document is a series of paragraphs, some of which match the content found in SOCOM-2012-0000016. This document was likely written by the author of that document. This letter discusses strategy, the need for al-Qa`ida to remain focused on targeting the United States (or even against U.S. targets in South Africa where other “brothers” are not active), the importance of tribal relations in a variety of different countries, and media activity.

SOCOM-2012-0000018
This document is a letter addressed to Usama bin Ladin from “a loving brother whom you know and who knows you” and dated 14 September 2006. The author is critical of Bin Ladin for focusing al- Qa`ida’s operations on “Islamic countries in general and the Arabian Peninsula in particular.” He enumerates the numerous negative consequences of engaging in jihad inside Saudi Arabia, and informs Bin Ladin that people are now repulsed by the technical term “jihad” and even forbidden to use it in lectures. The author strongly advised Bin Ladin to change his policies.

SOCOM-2012-0000019
This document is a long letter authored by Usama bin Ladin after the death of Sheikh Sa‘id (Mustafa Abu’l-Yazid) in late May 2010 and it is addressed to “Shaykh Mahmud” (`Atiyya) who he designates as Sa‘id’s successor. Bin Ladin’s letter is concerned with the mistakes committed by regional jihadi groups, which have resulted in the unnecessary deaths of thousands of Muslim civilians. Bin Ladin indicates that he would like to start a “new phase” so that the jihadis could regain the trust of Muslims. He directs `Atiyya to prepare a memorandum to centralize, in the hands of AQC, the media campaign and operations of regional jihadi groups. Considerable space is devoted to a discussion about Yemen, external operations and Bin Ladin’s plans for his son Hamza. This document includes an additional letter that Bin Ladin forwards to `Atiyya authored by Shaykh Yunis, presumably Yunis al-Mauritani, consisting of a new operational plan that al- Qa`ida should consider adopting.

Al Qaeda, Down But Not Out A Year After Bin Laden's Death

Al Qaeda is hurting a year following the death of Osama bin Laden at the hands of a US special forces unit in Pakistan.

But it isn't done by a long shot.

Terrorists continue to try to plan attacks, and they are using all kinds of methods to spread word of their plans.

One such plan and communications methods was intercepted just days after bin Laden was killed. A 22-year-old Austrian named Maqsood Lodin was being questioned by police in Berlin after recently traveling to Pakistan via Budapest, Hungary. Law enforcement discovered memory cards and a digital storage device.

On it were pornographic videos, but upon closer inspection they found that there were embedded documents hidden in the porn.

Several weeks later, after laborious efforts to crack a password and software to make the file almost invisible, German investigators discovered encoded inside the actual video a treasure trove of intelligence -- more than 100 al Qaeda documents that included an inside track on some of the terror group's most audacious plots and a road map for future operations.

Future plots include the idea of seizing cruise ships and carrying out attacks in Europe similar to the gun attacks by Pakistani militants that paralyzed the Indian city of Mumbai in November 2008. Ten gunmen killed 164 people in that three-day rampage.

Terrorist training manuals in PDF format in German, English and Arabic were among the documents, too, according to intelligence sources.

U.S. intelligence sources tell CNN that the documents uncovered are "pure gold;" one source says that they are the most important haul of al Qaeda materials in the last year, besides those found when U.S. Navy SEALs raided Osama bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, a year ago and killed the al Qaeda leader.

One document was called "Future Works." Its authorship is unclear, but intelligence officials believe it came from al Qaeda's inner core. It may have been the work of Younis al Mauretani, a senior al Qaeda operative until his capture by Pakistani police in 2011.

The documents turned out to be the biggest trove of intel gathered outside those captured in the bin Laden raid. It shows a terror group continuing to look for high profile attacks and the means to carry them out.

The US will be putting those bin Laden files online for the public to view, and they shed light on the man who was behind the most violent and deadly terror attacks in history. They show bin Laden as a micromanager who thought that he could overcome a series of failures with another spectacular attack on a 9/11 scale to force the US to change its policies.

Bin Laden and the al Qaeda leadership understood that they were in serious danger from the UAV airstrikes that had begun in 2008 and accelerated/intensified thereafter. They were doing real damage to the al Qaeda network in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

He also realized that affiliated and like-minded terror groups were heaping more attention on themselves by claiming alliances or an al Qaeda name:

On August 7, 2010, bin Laden wrote to Mukhtar Abu al-Zubair, the leader of the brutal Al-Shabaab militia in Somalia, telling him that Al-Shabaab ("the Youth") would be better off if it did not declare itself publicly to be part of al Qaeda. Bin Laden advised, "If asked, it would be better to say there is a relationship with al Qaeda, which is simply a brotherly Islamic connection, and nothing more."

Bin Laden explained to the Shabaab leader that al Qaeda's affiliate in Iraq had attracted many enemies by adopting the al Qaeda name. He also pointed out that it would be better for fundraising purposes if Shabaab didn't identify itself as being part of al Qaeda, because businessmen in the Arab world "who are willing to help the brothers in Somalia" would be more likely to do so if they thought they were not supporting al Qaeda directly.

Al Qaeda, "the base" in Arabic, was the name that the group had given itself when it was founded in Pakistan by bin Laden in 1988. Now the leader of al Qaeda was advising his followers to steer away from using the term.

In fact, Bin Laden was considering changing the terror group's name to make it more difficult for the US and others to claim that they were not waging war on all Muslims but only on terror groups that had perverted Islamic doctrine for their jihad.

Among the terror plots being concocted by bin Laden prior to his death besides the cruise ship plot was an assassination of President Obama. While he was ordering subordinates to provide him with new plots on a regular basis, he lacked the capabilities to act on them.

It was a terror group that was on the run and whose capabilities were vastly diminished from just a few years before. But diminished doesn't mean that the threat is completely gone or mitigated.

Terrorist groups affiliated with al Qaeda or which have similar outlooks and agendas are still dangerous, and they're looking at a whole range of new tactics, including ingesting explosives (or implanting explosives within the body itself) to avoid detection.

Afghanistan-US Pact Means US Presence In Afghanistan For Foreseeable Future

Despite claims that US forces will be leaving Afghanistan by 2014, the fact is that the US will continue to maintain a presence in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future - a decade or longer.

The reasons have as much to do with geography as they do politics.

Afghanistan is vital not only because the US needs to continue to deny al Qaeda a breeding ground in the country that played host to al Qaeda in the runup to the 9/11 attacks, but because it is adjacent to the current breeding grounds for al Qaeda and its affiliated terror groups in Pakistan.

Details of the pact have yet to be released. But over the past year, top generals and Pentagon officials have sketched — in congressional testimony, interviews and forum discussions — an outline of how the U.S. will operate after the accord takes effect, following the departure of most U.S. troops in 2014. U.S. and Afghan troops will live together on joint bases formally operated by the Afghans. The U.S. mission for training Afghan soldiers and police will continue until 2017 or so, although for financial reasons, the size of those Afghan troops under U.S. mentorship will shrink after 2014. Starting immediately, Afghans will have significant if incomplete influence over U.S. commando raids.

But these mentorship missions will not be the most important ones the U.S. executes in Afghanistan after 2014. They’re merely the visible ones. And they’re the cost of getting to the missions the U.S. considers most important.


To be blunt: Afghanistan is valuable to the United States because it’s the most logical place from which to conduct a war in Pakistan that’s primarily fought by armed drones and occasionally special operations forces. It’s not really valuable in and of itself. The U.S. interests in Afghanistan, as defined by the Obama administration, are to keep Afghanistan from internal collapse so al-Qaida doesn’t return. President Hamid Karzai’s government is corrupt? Yawn. Dealing with that is an expensive diversion from the core issue.

The core issue, as the Obama team sees it, is that there’s a residual al-Qaida presence next door, in the Pakistani tribal areas. Because Pakistan won’t let U.S. troops overtly operate on its territory, the U.S. basically needs to rent some nearby property. Afghanistan doesn’t have much to offer the rest of the world — minerals, maybe? — but it has a lot of land abutting Pakistan.

That's right.

It's about maintaining forces close to Pakistani territory. Pakistan, which is nominally a US ally in the war on terror is itself the territory targeted with this deal so that the US can continue to target and eliminate al Qaeda and affiliated terrorists in the frontier provinces that Pakistan's government lacks the ability to contain.

The frontier provinces, including the NWFP and Waziristan, are a hotbed of terrorist activities, and cross-border attacks are all too common. Pakistan maintains nominal control over the territories, which operates autonomously and when Pakistan has sent in military forces to quell the terrorist activities, they've gotten savaged.

In the past three years, the frontier provinces have been increasingly targeted by American UAV airstrikes - hitting high value targets and tracking down links between various terrorists operating there, including the Mehsud clan and Haqqani network.

Those raids, along with the successful raid to eliminate Osama bin Laden, have caused tremendous friction between the US and Pakistani government and the Pakistani intelligence service (ISI). The Administration appears to be accepting the fact that relations with Pakistan will continue to be rocky, but there may be a tacit deal in place to allow the US to use Afghanistan as a staging area for its UAV strikes to go after targets that Pakistan deems inconvenient - the Islamic terror groups like al Qaeda and those other terror groups. Such a deal would give the Pakistani government the maneuvering space to decry UAV airstrikes, but give silent assent to those successful strikes that eliminate threats to Pakistani security as well. After all, the Haqqani network is as much a threat to Pakistan's government as it is to Afghanistan (or the US).