Assad Preparing For Aleppo Assault as Civil War Rages On

Reports indicate that Bashar al-Assad's forces are preparing for a ground offensive against rebel-held areas of Aleppo. That will most certainly increase the casualties significantly over the already high tallies seen across the country in recent weeks.

Syria on Friday amassed troops in the northern city of Aleppo in preparation for an onslaught on rebel-held areas and the opposition reported a massacre in the central city of Hama.

Opposition activists said more than 62 people, including women and children, were killed in a massacre committed by forces loyal to President Bashar Assad in Hama. The claim by the Local Coordination Committees could not be independently verified.

In Aleppo, Syria's main commercial center, the Syrian army sent more troops and tanks to break a stalemate in fighting with rebels holding out for six days in opposition areas mainly in the east and southwest of the city near the border with Turkey.

"Dozens of trucks loaded with troops and backed by more than 100 tanks are being positioned around Aleppo," Abu Omar al-Halabi, a commander in the rebel Free Syrian Army, told dpa by phone.

The UN is hobbled by a split Security Council - the Russians and Chinese are blocking everything related to Syria, up to and including even weak-worded condemnation of the violence. Kofi Annan admitted as much when he declared his mission to implement a peace deal was a failure and that he was stepping down as envoy to Syria effective at the end of the month.

Assad's looking out for one thing - to remain in power at all costs. That means paying lip service to the diplomats all while crushing those opposed to him. The burden falls on Syrians who can't get out of the way of the violence, or who have declared allegiance to one side or the other.

Meanwhile, the NY Times reports Assad's forces are bedeviled by the fact that they're not prepared to deal with an insurrection where rebel forces (the Free Syrian Army and other unaffiliated groups) are able to mount coordinated attacks and capture some of the same weapons for use against the Syrian army. It's a situation that the Libyan military faced when Mumar Khadafi sought to crush the rebellion-turned-civil war and that the Egyptian military faced when Hosni Mubarak sought to stop the protests against his regime.

However, one shouldn't feel sorry for Assad because his military is having a tough time dealing with the rebel forces. It appears that even with a tactical advantage in the air (from helicopters and jets), it's just enough for Assad's forces to maintain the status quo. The Syrian military wasn't known for having a high state of preparedness to begin with, so equipment that was unreliable to start has only become more so. That's one of the reasons those helicopters that the Russians were refurbishing was so valued by the regime. They needed them to fill in for those that were already flying missions to support Assad's loyalists on the ground.

If he can't resupply and rearm, then the rebels will gain the upper hand and leave Assad with fewer and fewer options for how to retain power. It potentially opens the door for Assad to use chemical or biological weapons as a last ditch effort to crush the opposition though he claims that he wouldn't use it against the Syrian people (even as he calls the fighters arrayed against him foreign terror groups and proxies of the US and/or Israel, Syria, Qatar or others).

Meanwhile, Russia has dispatched more ships and ground forces to their port in Tartus; they are claiming that they are there to protect Russia's personnel and infrastructure at the port.

Rebel forces have again claimed that the regime carried out massacres in Hama, while both sides are blaming the other for a mortar attack against a Palestinian refugee camp that killed nearly 2 dozen civilians.

Kofi Annan Resigns As Envoy as Syrian Civil War Intensifies

The outcome was all but assured. Bashar al-Assad paid lip service to United Nations Envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, and his plan to end the ongoing violence wracking Syria for more than a year and a half. So Kofi has quit as envoy.

Assad continues to claim that foreign entities and terrorists are to blame for the violence, but it's Annan's security forces and loyalist goon squads who have introduced the violence and then intensified it as opposition groups moved to defend themselves.

The situation has been a civil war for some time now, as rebel forces have gained and held territory, including parts of Syria's two big cities - Aleppo and Damascus.

Annan's plan has been an abysmal failure though it wasn't exactly his fault. UN monitors could only look on as the violence raged around them; they were themselves targeted on more than one occasion. That ultimately led to their withdrawal. Assad never had any intention of stopping the brutal crackdown since he had no intention of ever stepping down or relinquishing power under any circumstances.

Aleppo is an urban battleground, with Assad's loyalists firing heavy weapons into the city and rebel-held strongholds, while the rebel forces have overrun some of Assad's positions and obtained heavy weapons of their own to return fire. Civilians remain caught in the crossfire.

Video footage seen by the Monitor shortly after the showdown bolstered rebel claims: It showed a Syrian armored vehicle with an RPG hole in its side still smoldering, and a number of Syrian soldiers lying dead at their positions on a wide avenue. Later footage showed burnt tanks.

The assault had been stopped, at least on the ground.

But shortly after came the roar of artillery barrages. Mortars, rockets, and tank shells were unleashed on the rebel enclave and did not end, nor even ease up, until well into the night.

Casualties began to pour in to the makeshift field hospital. Civilians said the intense shelling felt like regime revenge for the earlier military setbacks.

Few Syrians here forget the example of the rebel stronghold of Bab al-Amr in Homs – which was destroyed by weeks of artillery bombardment earlier this year, then declared "free" – or the more recent brutal "cleansing" of rebel turf in Damascus.

The bombardment was so intense that the United Nations estimates that in the last two days alone, 200,000 of the city’s 2 million residents have fled.

Artillery shells and rockets fell every few minutes in Salaheddin, sometimes as often as one a minute and sometimes in groups of five, coming in rapid succession. Some landed so close to the field hospital that shrapnel and debris hit the roof or walls.

Meanwhile, President Obama issued a secret finding authorizing covert aid to the Syrian rebels. He's also arranged for more humanitarian aid to those displaced by the Syrian civil war.

Aleppo Besieged As Assad and Rebels Claim Victories

The fighting in and around Aleppo, Syria's commercial hub, continues and the number of refugees is soaring. 200,000 have fled the city as a result of the brutal fighting on the streets and in the buildings of multiple neighborhoods around the city.

Both Assad and rebel forces have claimed victories. Assad's forces have claimed that they've overrun rebel held areas and retaken the city after more than a week's worth of artillery assaults and airstrikes.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group, reported heavy shelling in Salaheddine today, suggesting the district or parts of it are still under rebel control. An officer interviewed by the state-run TV channel said “mercenaries” from other countries, including Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, were helping the rebels in Aleppo.

Troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have been battling rebels who seized several neighborhoods in Aleppo, Syria’s most populous city and its commercial hub, since last week. The army pounded the city with heavy artillery and helicopter gunships, opposition groups say.

Motee al-Bateen, a member of the executive committee of the Syrian National Council, the main opposition group, said he couldn’t confirm that Salaheddine has fallen into army hands.

“How much territory the opposition holds is not important,” he said by telephone from Istanbul today. “What’s important is to engage the troops in cycles of attack-and- retreat to exhaust them.”

Al-Bateen said the army was using mortars, rocket launchers and tanks to shell areas from a distance and avoid engaging rebels in close combat.

Rebels note that despite the artillery and airstrikes, they've continued to hold on to Aleppo. Moreover, they've noted that Assad's forces haven't invaded the city en masse, precisely because they'd be facing an uphill battle in a brutal urban setting.

Rebel forces also announced that they captured a significant military base near Aleppo. They managed to capture the position after heavy fighting, and gained heavy weapons to supplement their own weapons.

Pro-Assad groups have claimed that Assad's forces have assassinated a Saudi official, Bandar bin Sultan, who they claim involved in plotting to eliminate key members of the Syrian defense and intel establishment earlier this month. However, there's no evidence to substantiate those claims, but it does show the animosity between Syria and Saudi Arabia is growing. The Saudis have been working to bring Assad's regime to an end, both by diplomacy and by covert means.

Meanwhile, another Syrian official has defected. At the same time, a Chinese news outlet is reporting that Assad's continuing to claim that he seeks to carry out the terms of the Arab League/Kofi Annan plan to end the violence. It's just so much talk since Assad could have simply brought the violence to an end by reining in his brutal crackdown. He has no intention of giving up power peacefully, and is seeking retribution against those that questioned his regime.

At the same time, concerns are mounting that al Qaeda and other Islamists are taking advantage of the chaos to gain a foothold in Syria.

Attacks On Pro-Government TV Station Highlight Assad's Troubles

Bashar al Assad's regime is continuing to come under attack, both in the halls of diplomatic centers and in Damascus itself. Today, there are conflicting reports over what happened at a pro-government television station. An attack apparently damaged the station and resulted in several deaths, but who was behind the attack differs depending on the account.

Syria said Wednesday that rebels stormed a pro-government television station in a Damascus suburb, killing employees and blowing up the station in an audacious predawn assault, but rebels said the attackers were defectors from the elite Republican Guard, considered to be the most loyal core defenders of President Bashar al-Assad.

If the rebel claim is confirmed, the attack would constitute a significant breach of security for the inner circle of President Assad, who said on Tuesday that Syria was now in a state of war — a markedly different description of a conflict he had previously characterized as a crime wave by foreign-backed terrorists. The attack on the television station also came against the backdrop of increasingly bold and organized rebel assaults in the Damascus area and an increased pace of high-level military defections.

It also came as Kofi Annan, the special envoy to Syria from the United Nations and the Arab League whose peace plan has been paralyzed since he announced it more than two months ago, said he would convene a ministerial-level meeting on Saturday in Geneva representing what he has called countries of influence in the conflict, including the five permanent members of the Security Council and representatives from the Arab League and Turkey. But the list of invitees conspicuously omitted Iran, Syria’s most important regional ally, which Mr. Annan had wanted to include. The United States had expressed strong objections to Iran’s participation, contending that it has aided and abetted the Syrian leader’s harsh repression in the 16-month-old conflict.

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The attack on al-Ikhbaria began before dawn when assailants “planted explosive devices in the headquarters of al-Ikhbaria following their ransacking and destroying of the satellite channel studios, including the newsroom studio, which was entirely destroyed,” the official Syrian news agency, SANA, reported.

The news agency referred to the assailants as terrorists — the usual official language to denote armed opponents of Mr. Assad’s government. While initial reports from SANA said three employees were killed, a subsequent official estimate put the death toll at seven.

The station, privately owned but strongly supportive of the government, is in the town of Drousha, around 14 miles south of Damascus.

The Associated Press quoted one of its photographers who visited the compound as saying five portable buildings used for offices and studios had collapsed, with blood on the floor and wooden partitions still on fire. Some walls had bullet holes, the photographer said.

Hours later, The A.P. said, the station was able to broadcast a rally in Damascus’s main square against the attack on its premises.

Col. Malik Kurdi, a spokesman in Turkey for a rebel commander, Riad al-Assad of the Free Syrian Army, said the attack was the result of the defection of a group of Republican Guards who had decided to change sides and attacked other guards at the station who had remained loyal.

Meanwhile, everyone is essentially conceding that Kofi Annan's efforts have failed and that the country has lurched into a civil war whose body count continues escalating.

Well, most folks realize that it's a civil war - a few are still splitting hairs and calling this an insurrection even though rebel groups are holding and gaining territory at the expense of the regime.

In fact, the number killed since Annan began his efforts to enact the Arab League peace plan has accelerated at a frightening pace - in part because the rebel forces have grown more audacious in their efforts and the regime's crackdown has become even more brutal.

What's clear is that civilians are being purposefully targeted by Assad's regime - a textbook definition of crimes against humanity and war crimes. That cannot be allowed to stand.

Syrian Conflict Enters New Deadly Phase

The cease fire that UN Envoy Kofi Annan didn't amount to much and diplomats had been trying to paper over its failures for the past couple of weeks even as Syria's thug in charge Bashar al Assad's forces continue attacking rebel forces throughout the country.

All claims to suggest that the ceasefire exists should be repudiated after this weekend's deadly attacks in Houla. Assad's forces shelled the city and his militias then went door to door to murder more than 100 people. Many of those killed were women and children - killed with small arms fire and knives. Those figures are the conclusions of UN peacekeepers, who are unable to do any actual peace keeping but are able to give a rough estimate of how many people are dying in what has been a rebellion/civil war.

The diplomatic response was dramatic as several countries booted Syrian diplomats from their countries. Even Russia had to take the step of denouncing Assad (although they're still blocking any action in the UN beyond a harshly worded letter).

Annan is back in Syria trying to get a ceasefire agreement back on track, but that's a futile measure considering that Assad is unwilling to cede power and will do anything to remain in power. Rebel groups aren't going to relent on their demands that Assad step down and that Assad's forces have to lay down their weapons against civilian groups.

France, which has historical ties to the Levant, has called on Assad to step aside. The French Foreign Minister called Assad a murderer, which is some of the harshest language used against Assad by foreign diplomats to date. However, calling on Assad to relinquish power without actually pushing him out or giving the opposition the means to do so only means that the rhetoric remains just that - talk.

That's even as there are new and additional reports that Assad's engaging in still more war crimes and crimes against humanity, including using rape as a weapon against civilians from cities where the opposition has a foothold. Assad's security forces are carrying out rapes against detainees in detention facilities throughout the country.

The fighting in Syria has also threatened the fragile stability in neighboring Lebanon, where Assad's loyalists hold sway. The kidnapping of 11 Lebanese Shi'ites may spark a new round of violence there, as have several rounds of cross-border attacks into Lebanon from Syria.

The Syrian crisis already has spilled across the border into Lebanon over the past three weeks, sparking deadly violence in a country that remains deeply divided over the 15-month-old uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad.

But the Shiites' abduction is potentially explosive, in part because it enflames Lebanon's fragile Sunni-Shiite fault line. It could also spark retaliatory attacks against the thousands of Syrians in Lebanon.

In recent days, members of Lebanon's powerful Shiite militant group, Hezbollah, have deployed at the entrances of Beirut's southern suburbs, a heavily Shiite area, to prevent any moves by angry protesters.

Hezbollah is a staunch ally of the Syrian regime, where a predominantly Sunni uprising is trying to oust the Assad family dynasty. The families of the kidnapped Shiites blame Syria's Sunni rebels for abducting the men.

"The kidnapping is clearly intended to drag Hezbollah into the Syrian quagmire," said Ziad Baalbaki, a 37-year-old Lebanese insurance broker in Beirut. "The whole thing is fishy, everyone is worried what will happen if they are not released or they turn out to be dead."

The Lebanese men were on their way back from a pilgrimage in Iran on May 22 when gunmen intercepted their buses in the northern Syrian province of Aleppo, according to the women on the pilgrimage who were allowed to go free and arrived in Lebanon hours later.

The Syrian Civil War Grinds On Despite "Cease. Fire!"

The fighting in Syria rages on despite the fact that there's supposedly a ceasefire in place between rebel forces arrayed against Bashar al-Assad's security forces.

Bombings are increasingly common. A pair of bombings today killed at least 55 people and injured more than 400 others.

The explosions struck at rush hour in the Al Qazaz neighborhood and tore through a crowded intersection near a military intelligence branch, injuring 372 people, both civilians and members of the military, officials said. The blast was heard and felt throughout the city.

In a statement released by his spokesman, Annan reiterated his call to all parties to adhere to the weeks-old cease-fire. Previous calls for a stop to the violence have gone unheeded as President Bashar Assad's security forces have continued a brutal crackdown on dissent and some opposition fighters have taken up arms again.

The UN has tried to broker a ceasefire deal, but Assad's refused to stop his brutal crackdown against those opposed to his regime.

The pair of blasts were apparently two vehicles loaded with 2,200 of explosives and driven by suicide bombers.

So, what's next? That's the question being framed by NPR.

The U.N. plan is most publicly supported by the Russians, who believe there is still a way to mediate an end to the crisis in Syria. The Russians, long-time allies of the Syrian government, have opposed strict U.N. sanctions and calls for foreign intervention.

But a growing number feel the peace plan has failed.

They include Wissam Tarif, who runs the Beirut office of the activist group Avaaz, which does extensive work on Syria. He and others say the Syrian regime is simply not willing to stop the violence, which means it will never be able to reach a negotiated solution.

That's why Tarif calls the U.N. plan a "necessary failure" — meaning that the more the Russians see the regime's violations, the more likely they will be to go along with tougher measures against the Syrian leadership.

"Having said that, it's very important to note that this failure is very expensive and it's by the Syrian people's blood because hundreds continue to be killed in the country," Tarif says.

The Russians have blocked any more stringent actions against Assad, but the US doesn't want to get bogged down in another attempt at nation building coming off the heels of the Iraq and Afghanistan experiences.

Sanctions aren't stopping Assad, and he's finding ways around the sanctions.

This leaves Assad with the ability to crush the rebellion and do so with a free hand since there's little chance that he would see NATO forces prepare the battlefield in the manner that they did with the Libyan civil war.

Truce and Lies

No surprises here. Bashar al-Assad's regime is saying that they're complying with the terms of ceasefire offered up by the Arab League and UN envoy Kofi Annan. The facts on the ground indicate something else entirely.

Assad's security forces have again intensified their assaults on rebel areas and increased the body county.

Syria's assurance that its forces are complying with a cease-fire deal have been condemned as a "blatant lie" by France, as 32 people were reportedly killed even after guns were supposed to be silent.

In scarcely diplomatic language, the French foreign ministry spokesman said: "The Syrian foreign minister's statements this morning, affirming an initial implementation of the Annan plan by the Damascus regime, are a fresh expression of this blatant and unacceptable lie.”

"They are indicative of a feeling of impunity against which the international community absolutely must react," the spokesman, Bernard Valero, told reporters in Paris.

Visiting Moscow, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem had earlier said troops were already pulling back from cities in line with a peace plan brokered by international envoy Kofi Annan.
But, citing Syrian sources and satellite images, Valero said "none of the elements" of Annan's plan had been implemented.

"There is what the regime's representatives are saying and then there is the reality," he said. "On average 100 people are dying each day and it continues. Today, Syrian security forces are still firing on populated areas and using heavy weapons, armored vehicles and helicopters. That's the reality."

Homs remained under constant fire from Assad's forces, and the bulk of those killed or injured were in the city. Assad can continue killing dozens of Syrians daily and there's not a thing anyone seems willing to do as long as Russia and China continue supporting the regime and thwarting stronger measures at the UN.

Syria's Shell Game

Bashar al-Assad knows one thing quite well - how to remain in power and to preserve his military assets. The UN and Arab League have been trying to get Assad to stop his brutal crackdown against opposition groups looking for social and political reform, and UN Envoy Kofi Annan claimed to have a deal in place that would bring about a ceasefire.

The only problem is that Assad has no interest in a ceasefire. He's looking to crush the opposition and eliminate an existential threat to his regime.

So, he's giving some signals that he's complying, all while accelerating and intensifying the crackdown elsewhere. He's moving tanks and artillery from one place to another as though that will somehow mean his regime is complying with the terms of the ceasefire.

He can move tanks and artillery from one town to a neighboring town, but those tanks and artillery can still rain down death and mayhem - and they are.

US Ambassador Robert Ford released commercial satellite photos of different areas of Syria to show the shell game underway.

It's nothing I haven't expected to see. After all, Assad is working under the same rules his father did - when your regime is under threat, crush the opposition and make it an object lesson on never to question the authority of the regime. It's the Hama rules in action.

So, despite the fact that the opposition has more technology and the Internet at its disposal to show the world Assad's brutalization in action, Assad can thumb his nose as the world because the world simply can't act.

UN Envoy Visits Syria as Bloodshed Continues Unabated

The United Nations sent former Secretary General Kofi Annan to Syria to meet with Bashar al-Assad's regime to get them to stop the brutalization of Syrians who seek political and social reforms (and Assad's overthrow). Assad may have given a diplomatic response to Annan, but the real response could be seen by yet another intensification of the crackdown and military assaults against rebel strongholds across the country.

The U.N.-Arab League envoy, Kofi Annan, said he had received a reply from Damascus to peace proposals that he laid out at the weekend, and wanted further clarifications.

"But given the grave and tragic situation on the ground, everyone must realize that time is of the essence. As (Annan) said in the region, this crisis cannot be allowed to drag on," his spokesman Ahmad Fawzi said in a statement from Geneva.

Official Syrian media accused "armed terrorists" of massacring 15 civilians, including young children, in a pro-government district of the central city of Homs, which has been the focal point of much fighting in recent weeks.

In the southern city of Deraa, cradle of what began a year ago as a peaceful uprising but has gradually evolved into an armed insurgency, opposition activists said government troops had raked buildings with anti-aircraft fire.

There were also reports of a tank bombardment on the village of al-Janoudieh in the northern Idlib region.

Reports from Syria cannot be independently verified as the authorities deny access to rights groups and journalists.

The United Nations says Assad's forces have killed more than 8,000 people in their drive to crush the uprising. Its refugee agency said on Tuesday that some 230,000 Syrians had fled their homes during the past 12 months, of whom around 30,000 have sought safety abroad.

Amnesty International said in a report that Syrians detained during the uprising had suffered widespread torture that amounted to a crime against humanity.

Italy has closed its embassy in Damascus and Russia is calling for a simultaneous cease-fire. Yet, Russia continues plying Assad with weapons. It says that it wont respond with military force to support Assad, but no one would or should expect them to. If that happened, it would further weaken Russian influence in the region.

Homs remains under assault, and civilians are taking the brunt of the casualties despite claims to the contrary from Assad's propagandists.

Meanwhile, Assad and his flacks are hoping to get someone to pay attention to Israel so that Assad can continue brutalizing the Syrian people - people who are demanding that Assad step aside and end his totalitarian regime's grip on the country. Thousands have been killed in the past year, tens of thousands more have been detained and/or disappeared by the regime's security forces.

Assad's loyalists have no problems sanitizing entire areas where rebel forces have held out - Baba Amr was pummeled and while structures are still standing, the neighborhood is wrecked. Thousands were displaced as a result. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians are internally displaced because of the violence, and thousands more are trying to get out of the country by any means necessary. That can involve trying to cross minefields set up by Assad's forces to keep them in.

War crimes one and all, but Assad figures that he can play the Israel card to avoid further scrutiny by the rest of the world. Too bad for him that it's not working. People are paying attention to what his regime is doing, and it's the Arab League that are among those who are putting the pressure to his regime.

Mugabe Continues Playing Games

Zimbabwe's political situation continues to be mired in a mess as Robert Mugabe continue to do whatever it takes to hold on to power. His latest move is to prevent former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, former President Jimmy Carter, and others from entering the country on a humanitarian mission.

Zimbabwe has refused to let Kofi Annan and two eminent colleagues visit the impoverished African country for a humanitarian mission, the three said Saturday.

The former U.N. secretary-general, ex-U.S. President Jimmy Carter and rights advocate Graca Machel had planned to assess the country's needs. They are members of The Elders group, formed by former South African President Nelson Mandela to foster peace and tackle world conflicts.

Zimbabweans are suffering from disease and hunger while political crisis over a power-sharing government occupies its politicians. A current cholera outbreak has killed nearly 300 people in Zimbabwe, the United Nations said.

But the three were told Friday night by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, who is mediating the political crisis, that efforts to secure travel visas for the a two-day trip had failed.

I'm no fan of Carter or Annan, but this once again shows the lengths to which Mugabe will go to prevent the free and fair elections. Carter has regularly rubber stamped elections held by despotic regimes regardless of the evidence of corruption and fraud and thuggish behavior to intimidate voters. Yet, Mugabe doesn't even see fit to allow Carter access to the country.

Zimbabwe has been run into the ground by Mugabe and the humanitarian efforts only allow Mugabe to continue limping along in power as the country's infrastructure completely disintegrates and the rampant hunger and crushing unemployment continues with no end in sight.

UPDATE:
Ed Morrissey points out that Mugabe got his start when Carter gave his election the rubber stamp of approval, and now Mugabe wont even give them the courtesy of a visit. Not even Mugabe wants to see Annan or Carter.