A Black Black Friday

There is absolutely no excuse for this, and yet one man lost his life and a pregnant woman had a miscarriage when a WalMart in Valley Stream, New York opened its doors for a doorbusters sale this morning.

A Wal-Mart worker was killed Friday after an ``out of control'' throng of shoppers eager for post-Thanksgiving bargains broke down the doors at a suburban store and knocked him to the ground, police said.

At least four other people, including a woman eight months pregnant, were taken to hospitals for observation or minor injuries, and the store in Valley Stream on Long Island was closed for several hours.

It reopened shortly after 1 p.m. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. in Bentonville, Ark., called the incident a ``tragic situation'' and said the employee came from a temporary agency and was doing maintenance work at the store.

``The safety and security of our customers and associates is our top priority,'' said Wal-Mart representative Dan Fogleman.

``Our thoughts and prayers are with them and their families at this difficult time. At this point, facts are still being assembled and we are working closely with the Nassau County Police as they investigate what occurred.''

The man, a sales clerk, was trampled to death by hundreds of shoppers looking to save a few bucks on their holiday shopping. The woman was also injured in the mass of people surging into the store.

That's absolute insanity, and it really should raise questions about how and why people are going holiday shopping in the first place. Look, I love a sale as much as the next person, but I'm certainly not going to risk my life for it, and neither should anyone else. It certainly is a reason to do your shopping online.

In fact, both Mrs. Lawhawk and I have done most of our holiday shopping online and both of us have nearly finished our lists, but I always check out the stores in person to see if there's anything else I missed and to get ideas. This year, I checked out Century21 and Filene's Basement at Bergen Town Center, Target in Hackensack, and the Paramus Park mall. Century21 and Filene's Basement weren't exactly packed with crowds, and you could actually walk through the aisles fairly comfortably. People were buying items, but I was there after the initial doorbusters sale ended around noon.

Paramus Park was also busy, but not inordinately so. I was able to get in and out of the malls and their parking lots fairly easily. Sales were good, but nothing really blew my socks off as a must buy item.

Target, on the other hand was quite busy but even there I was able to make my way through the Hackensack store. Many of the low priced DVDs were already sold out and the shelves were not restocked as of early afternoon, which could be a sign that the store was not holding as much inventory as in past years, when DVDs for under $5 could be found readily even into the late afternoon.

In other words, I think that there's serious belt-tightening ongoing, and that means that retailers are going to be in for a very rough season.

UPDATE:
While I didn't shop there, there were lines outside Sixth Avenue Electronics all day long, and the line started forming at their store on Route 4 at Midnight. I guess someone thought that they really had good deals.

Of course, that was not the only store where people lined up.

Spinning the Shopping Season

Everyone is busy spinning the shopping season. Retailers are hoping that the heavy traffic yesterday is a sign of things to come, and that sales will grow year over year more than expected.

"Retailers certainly recognize that even though Black Friday started off strong, the holiday season will be challenging," said Ellen Davis, spokeswoman for the National Retail Federation, which is predicting holiday sales will increase 4 percent over last year, the slowest growth since 2002.

Michael Unger, director of consumer products and retail for Archstone Consulting of Stamford, Conn., who visited malls in New York and New Jersey on Friday to track spending, said warnings of a weak holiday need to be put in perspective.

"Everyone is saying doom and gloom, but the doom and gloom story is still growth. It's just a lot slower growth than we've had," he said.

The early morning rush at North Jersey stores and malls was followed by an afternoon lull that some retail experts said could mean slow going in early December. "I think we're going to see Christmas come at two bookends this year," said Beemer. "Black Friday's going to be huge and the last seven or eight days will be huge. I think the in-between's going to be thin."

While national retail stores and chains in North Jersey were thrilled with the size of their early morning crowds, Davis said busy Black Fridays sometimes mean leaner Decembers. "If the economy is booming, people don't care about good deals," she said. "But when the economy is soft, people will do anything for a good deal."

The one thing to keep in mind? Even if the sales are supposedly disappointing, it's still an increase in sales over last year. It's only a question of the rate of growth that will have the so-called experts worried.

For most everyone else, they're worried about whether they got a good deal on what they purchased, and whether they were able to get everything they wanted on their wish lists.

Friday Funny

Black Friday Madness

Well, I'm back after a semi productive day shopping and taking care of business around the house. You cannot blame any economic woes in the NY Metro area on us, that's for sure.

We spent the day buying a reclining sofa and loveseat for the new house. Mrs. Lawhawk and I have been eying this combination for a while now, and decided to get it ordered and delivered before New Years. It was at the price we figured it to be and it [would] give us quite a few good years of use.

We also took care of some of our holiday shopping. By the time we hit the road for the shopping centers in Bergen County, it was after 2 pm. It must have been a good move because traffic wasn't bad at all on Rt. 4 East or West, even near the Garden State Plaza.

Target was quite busy, and their best television deal, a 19 inch LCD with DVD built in for $199, was sold out. We figured we didn't have much chance anyway, but we did get a few other gifts and some other needed items. We then headed over to Costco in Hackensack, and it was again busy, but not overwhelmingly so. No major deals to be had on the televisions we were looking for (under 27 inches for the bedroom), but did pick up a few needed foodstuffs.

From there, we headed to Paramus Park Mall, and the mall was busy, but it wasn't an insane asylum as it sometimes can be. We didn't buy anything there, but did head over to Pier 1 where we saw yet another gift, before calling it a day.

In all, excluding the sofa and loveseat, we spent a little more than last year to this point. Including the sofa and loveseat, we definitely spent quite a bit more than in past years. However, we're not quite done yet, and we do a combination of shopping online and in the stores because there are some items that you need to be able to see and feel to know whether they're a good item to get or not.

UPDATE:
For those that aren't quite familiar with Northern New Jersey, Paramus is the shopping mecca of the region - and has the highest concentration stores of anywhere in the country outside of Midtown Manhattan. Four major malls (Garden State Plaza - recently completed major expansion including new restaurants, movie theaters, and more stores; Shops at Riverside - upscale; Paramus Park; and Bergen Town Center) and hundreds more stores line only a few square miles centered on the interchange between Route 4 and Route 17.

The Road Warrior notes that Paramus is also a speed trap mecca for police catching out of staters doing their shopping, but during the major holidays, finding someone speeding as they're inching through traffic can be tough. That said, do not drive on the shoulders if you think you're going to get ahead of traffic that way. Police will ticket you for unsafe driving, even if you were trying to get into a store parking lot just ahead (it's a similar story near the George Washington Bridge approach on Rt. 4.

There is one benefit of shopping in Paramus. The stores are not allowed to open by law before 7am. That means you can sleep in just a bit compared to the poor saps elsewhere who have to try and brave the 4am door busters. The Shops at Riverside didn't open before 8am, which is great if you're seeking out luxury items at that upscale mall.

UPDATE 11/24/2007:
Bill Ervolino provides his take on the Garden State Plaza Black Friday experience. The article also provides some statistics on sales over the past decade. Even a down year is still a year in which the year over year sales increased. The difference is that they aren't growing as much as the prior year.

Holiday Shopping Guide

With Black Friday swiftly approaching, I know my readers want to get the best deals possible. I approach this time of year as though it's a game. The trick is to see just how good a deal you want on various items.

This year, I've come across two websites that make the job a whole lot easier.

bfads.net/

The Black Friday

Last year, I put together a bunch of links and suggestions. They still largely apply. DeepdiscountDVD still carries DVDs, but it dropped the DVD portion of its URL. Find it here.

Among the great deals I've spotted is $129.99 for a Kitchen Aid Stand Mixer at Kohls. I believe that this is the 4.5 quart version, but you'll usually find Kitchen Aid mixers for no lower than $239 for this version, or $259 and up for the 5 quart variety.

JC Penney has a ton of items being sold at 60% off regular prices. Some could be seriously hot deals.

Still, the best advice I can give is make your list early and price shop ahead of time to see which outlets are giving the best deals. Shopping online has never been easier, and so has the ability to compare prices. Use that to your advantage.

Black Friday Shopping Experience

News reports indicate that this year's Black Friday was poised to be the best in years.

Terry Lundgren, chief executive of Federated Department Stores Inc., told Reuters he arrived at the company's flagship Macy's store in Manhattan at 5:30 a.m. to find lines wrapped completely around the building, which takes up a whole city block.

"I've been coming here for many years at the same time on this particular day, and this looks like the largest crowd we've seen in years," Lundgren said. The sunny, cold weather was good for shopping, especially for coats and cashmere sweaters, he added.

Early shoppers were treated to deals such as a five-piece luggage set for $49.99 and a one-carat diamond circle pendant for less than $100, Lundgren said.

Consumers see the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday -- called "Black Friday" because it once marked the day many retailers turned a profit, or went into the black, for the year -- as the first day of the holiday shopping season and a time to snag bargains, freebies and sales.

It used to be the year's busiest shopping day, but people looking for last-minute gifts have transferred that honor to the Saturday before Christmas. Still, the Thanksgiving weekend accounts for up to 10 percent of holiday sales, according to analyst Dana Telsey of independent research firm Telsey Group.

This year, shoppers have more time, and more choices in how to do their shopping. There's an extra full weekend of shopping for procrastinators, so stores might end up seeing more sales overall, but less per day.

Then, there's the online shopping. More people are flocking to online stores than ever before. That's a good thing. Online shopping lets you price shop and compare prices between stores like no other method.

I finished all of my shopping yesterday, and went with a hybrid method. I went online before going out to the stores to compare prices and to find out if there were discount coupons or other tricks. Then, went out to the stores in and around Paramus, New Jersey (shopping mecca of New Jersey with hundreds of stores lining Routes 17 and 4, not counting the hundreds more tucked away in four major malls (Garden State Plaza, Paramus Park, Shops at Riverside, and Bergen Town Center). There were great deals to be had - clothing and home furnishings in Century 21 and Kohl's. Kohl's also had a promotion for providing $10 towards future purchase if you spent $50 on a Kohl's card.

My impression was that the stores were busy, but not insanely so. Paramus Park mall was busy and lots of people were carrying their purchases, but it wasn't shoulder to shoulder foot-traffic. Kohl's on Route 17 was busy, and it took me longer to wait on line than to find my items. Here's one suggestion for Kohl's - get more shopping carts to help carry around items - especially if you're buying in the home furnishings and kitchen areas. It would be a godsend.

All of my shopping was done between 8am and before 5pm with a break from 12-2pm. When Mrs. Lawhawk came home, we went out together to pick up items that she needed, and the few items I wanted her opinion on for some of my gifts. We were finished with shopping at 8pm.

I probably bought more items and spent more than I did last year, in part because Kohl's had a Kitchen Aid food processor on sale for $157, though there were some serious stocking stuffers involved as well - $3.98 DVDs at Target, along with some $5 DVDs at Kohl's.

UPDATE:
Wal Mart says that Black Friday didn't quite meet its expectations. I think the results will be all over the map - some retailers did far better than others, which is the usual thing for this time of year. Some outlets generate more buzz than others, and with a longer shopping season this year, we might see more procrastinators. Also, with more people purchasing gift cards, results may end up being booked in future quarters, not during this season, unless redeemed before the end of the quarter.

UPDATE:
Wal Mart's experience doesn't appear to be shared by other retailers.

According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks total sales at more than 45,000 mall-based retail outlets, total sales rose 6 percent to $8.96 billion on Friday, the start of the holiday shopping season, compared to the same day a year ago.

"Although we anticipated a solid consumer turnout for Black Friday, this data shows an even larger increase than expected as consumers proved they were willing to spend," said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, in a statement.

Wal-Mart, however, estimated it will post a 0.1 percent decline in same-store sales, or sales at stores opened at least a year, in November. That's slightly below its original projections for flat sales for the month, compared to the year-ago period. The results cover the four-week period that ended through Friday. Same-store sales are considered a key indicator of a retailer's health.

Technorati: black friday, shopping, coupons, discounts.

How To Make Your Money Go Further During the Holidays

If you're planning on buying online or going to wade into the stores this holiday season, make your dollar go further by checking for coupons and special sales. I've found that I've saved a bunch of money (not on my car insurance) by using sites like hotdealsclub.com to get better prices/deals on stuff from furniture to DVDs.

If you're looking to buy a bunch of DVDs, consider joining Columbia House using one of the codes that lower the per-unit costs considerably could work out better than going to one of the big box stores. DeepDiscountDVD is another great source of cheap DVDs and no-hassle shopping.

Pricegrabber and Pricescan can help track down where the best prices on items may be. Combine your searches with the coupons to maximize your dollars. I always treat my holiday shopping like a game - to see just how much money I can save.

Another way to save, and incidentally makes an excellent stocking stuffer is the Entertainment book. They're produced for various geographical areas around the country, and the savings can quickly stack up. If you eat out a lot, you can quickly make back the book's cost and then some. Also, if you plan trips, the book is invaluable for car rental discounts that can save anywhere from $15-50 or more on a car rental. I've found that my average savings on my trips for car rentals alone averages around $40. The trick is to start searching for rates early and compare the different coupons and then check back to see if the prices drop. The same process can help find good hotel rates.

Using your AAA card can help secure good discounts as well. AAA partners with malls, like Woodbury Commons, in Harriman, New York to provide coupon books that let you take off serious dollars from the outlet stores there. Check with your local AAA branch or go to the AAA website to find out the discounts available in your area.

UPDATE:
If you know of a good site that provides discounts and great deals, include them in the comments or track back. However, I will delete spammers who are simply posting bogus information. You've been forewarned.

Technorati: black friday, shopping, coupons, discounts.

Chicago Rules Bring Business Departures

I had written about Chicago's imposition of new rules requiring that certain businesses pay living wages, which would equal about $10 per hour back on July 26.

Well, it turns out that I got it just right. Businesses are going to do the only prudent thing for their business operations. They're going to go elsewhere. As Don Surber notes,

UPI reports that Target is pulling out of a city-subsidized project because of that $10 law.

The city ponied up $23 million for a 32-acre shopping mall with Target as the anchor store. The local councilwoman said, “I‘m depressed. I need sales tax revenue and jobs. How do I pull my community out of the slump that it‘s in? How do we get a rebirth? Sales tax revenue. That‘s how.”

The law of unintended consequences in action. That and the fact that not a single politician in Chicago appeared to understand basic economics.

If enough of the Chicago politicians learn from this, they might have time to reverse their decision to impose the living wage on these businesses.However, it will not likely bring back Target. And one has to wonder where that $23 million will come from now that there isn't the tax revenue coming in to reimburse taxpayers for their politicians' largesse. They're going to be stuck with the bill, along with higher unemployment, and fewer jobs.

What Kind of Economy Is This?

According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks total sales at more than 45,000 retail outlets, the overall sales on Friday were relatively unchanged compared to a year ago, despite heavier discounting and expanded hours that drew a surge of shoppers to stores in the early morning hours.

The Chicago-based research group reported total sales Friday at $8 billion, down 0.9 percent from a year ago.

"Although the Black Friday number is a bit flat, this may be misleading as we're comparing this to a very strong 2004 performance," said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist and director of research for the International Council of Shopping Centers, in a statement.

He added that while Black Friday — so named because the post-Thanksgiving surge of shoppers supposedly pushes stores into profitability for the year — is important to merchants, it's not always the best indicator of consumer shopping patterns for the remainder of the season.

In 2004, the Friday after Thanksgiving was the second busiest day of the holiday shopping season, according to ShopperTrak; the busiest day was the Saturday before Christmas.

In a challenging but improving economy, the nation's retailers plied shoppers Friday with heavier discounting and earlier openings than a year ago. There were also a number of newcomers to the early bird special scene, including Disney Stores and Wal-Mart's Sam's Clubs.

No discussion of the economy this year can be considered complete without mention of the significant impact of the multiple hurricanes on the Gulf Coast. Yet, there's no mention in this particular article. Why?

So, if we're talking about a nearly flat (down .9%) year over year, after the effects of the hurricanes on the economy, one should feel pretty good about how the economy is doing and retailers will probably be in pretty good shape going into the heart of the selling season.

Also, the article doesn't quite make clear whether the review of retailers includes online purchasing through the likes of Ebay or Amazon.com.

Breitbart/AP reports that the opening weekend of the retail shopping season was modest. Yet, the story notes that Wal Mart, Toys R Us and JC Penney all claim to have done well. And what may be an even better gauge of the retail picture was how much plastic was burned:

According to Visa USA, overall sales volume on Visa branded cards for the combined Friday and Saturday period surpassed $7 billion, a 15 percent increase over the year-ago period.

A clearer picture of how the retailers fared over the Thanksgiving weekend will emerge Thursday, when retailers report sales results for all of November.

It's still early in the holiday season, so it will be fun watching everyone spinning this season.

And in the end, it will be the people who find the good deals and stretch their budgets to make sure everyone gets their gifts.

Shop Til You Drop

So, did you venture out yesterday to engage in the martial art known as shopping on Black Friday?

I did.

And I can honestly say that it wasn't too bad. Sure, there were crowds, but I did my shopping after 2PM and before 6PM. We shopping up and down the Route 17 corridor in Paramus, New Jersey, which has the highest concentration of stores pretty much anywhere in the country.

Some tips for shopping based on my observations:

1) Don't take the kids with you. They'll only slow you down. You want to get in and out of a store, and kids, especially young 'uns, only add to the stress of shopping. If you have no choice but to take the kids with you, don't try to do all your shopping at once. Your kids will get cranky, and you'll be in even worse shape.

2) The best way to treat the day as less stressful is to treat shopping like a sport. See if you can find the best deals.

3) Use coupons. Lots of them. Bed Bath and Beyond, Linens n' Things, and many other stores have coupons. Save $5 on $15 purchases or 20% off on single items (but use as many coupons as you can; they'll let you save tons of money for just a little bit of coupon clipping.

4) Go online. I know you're already here, so you can head over to any of the price comparison website. I use Pricescan.

5) Check out hotdealsclub, which has the best deals found at many vendors online. It pulls the coupons offered, plus best deals and you can save a bunch. At one point, I outfitted my office with 2 desks, 2 bookcases, and save a couple hundred bucks in the process because there was a coupon for OfficeDepot that let me save 30% per item.

Have fun! Happy Holidays!

UPDATE:
Others blogging the shopping and Black Friday (and updated as needed): Euphoric Reality, Jaid Black, The Spirit of Man (who comments on the hand-to-hand combat nature of fighting for deals), Metroblogging Atlanta, Pundit Guy (who doesn't get the whole concept of running out to shop the day after Thanksgiving), Sister Toldjah (who comments on the doorbuster bodybusting trampling that happens on an annual basis), Fraters Libertas (who sent the Missus out to buy a laptop at an incredible price $378), The People's Republic of Seabrook.