Spinning the Shopping Season

Everyone is busy spinning the shopping season. Retailers are hoping that the heavy traffic yesterday is a sign of things to come, and that sales will grow year over year more than expected.

"Retailers certainly recognize that even though Black Friday started off strong, the holiday season will be challenging," said Ellen Davis, spokeswoman for the National Retail Federation, which is predicting holiday sales will increase 4 percent over last year, the slowest growth since 2002.

Michael Unger, director of consumer products and retail for Archstone Consulting of Stamford, Conn., who visited malls in New York and New Jersey on Friday to track spending, said warnings of a weak holiday need to be put in perspective.

"Everyone is saying doom and gloom, but the doom and gloom story is still growth. It's just a lot slower growth than we've had," he said.

The early morning rush at North Jersey stores and malls was followed by an afternoon lull that some retail experts said could mean slow going in early December. "I think we're going to see Christmas come at two bookends this year," said Beemer. "Black Friday's going to be huge and the last seven or eight days will be huge. I think the in-between's going to be thin."

While national retail stores and chains in North Jersey were thrilled with the size of their early morning crowds, Davis said busy Black Fridays sometimes mean leaner Decembers. "If the economy is booming, people don't care about good deals," she said. "But when the economy is soft, people will do anything for a good deal."

The one thing to keep in mind? Even if the sales are supposedly disappointing, it's still an increase in sales over last year. It's only a question of the rate of growth that will have the so-called experts worried.

For most everyone else, they're worried about whether they got a good deal on what they purchased, and whether they were able to get everything they wanted on their wish lists.