What Kind of Economy Is This?

According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks total sales at more than 45,000 retail outlets, the overall sales on Friday were relatively unchanged compared to a year ago, despite heavier discounting and expanded hours that drew a surge of shoppers to stores in the early morning hours.

The Chicago-based research group reported total sales Friday at $8 billion, down 0.9 percent from a year ago.

"Although the Black Friday number is a bit flat, this may be misleading as we're comparing this to a very strong 2004 performance," said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist and director of research for the International Council of Shopping Centers, in a statement.

He added that while Black Friday — so named because the post-Thanksgiving surge of shoppers supposedly pushes stores into profitability for the year — is important to merchants, it's not always the best indicator of consumer shopping patterns for the remainder of the season.

In 2004, the Friday after Thanksgiving was the second busiest day of the holiday shopping season, according to ShopperTrak; the busiest day was the Saturday before Christmas.

In a challenging but improving economy, the nation's retailers plied shoppers Friday with heavier discounting and earlier openings than a year ago. There were also a number of newcomers to the early bird special scene, including Disney Stores and Wal-Mart's Sam's Clubs.

No discussion of the economy this year can be considered complete without mention of the significant impact of the multiple hurricanes on the Gulf Coast. Yet, there's no mention in this particular article. Why?

So, if we're talking about a nearly flat (down .9%) year over year, after the effects of the hurricanes on the economy, one should feel pretty good about how the economy is doing and retailers will probably be in pretty good shape going into the heart of the selling season.

Also, the article doesn't quite make clear whether the review of retailers includes online purchasing through the likes of Ebay or Amazon.com.

Breitbart/AP reports that the opening weekend of the retail shopping season was modest. Yet, the story notes that Wal Mart, Toys R Us and JC Penney all claim to have done well. And what may be an even better gauge of the retail picture was how much plastic was burned:

According to Visa USA, overall sales volume on Visa branded cards for the combined Friday and Saturday period surpassed $7 billion, a 15 percent increase over the year-ago period.

A clearer picture of how the retailers fared over the Thanksgiving weekend will emerge Thursday, when retailers report sales results for all of November.

It's still early in the holiday season, so it will be fun watching everyone spinning this season.

And in the end, it will be the people who find the good deals and stretch their budgets to make sure everyone gets their gifts.