The Barak Disengagement Plan

Israel's defense minister Ehud Barak has come out with a new plan that is spurring a new debate about Israel's role in the West Bank. Ehud Barak is part of the government coalition under Binyamin Netanyahu, but he's also the leader of his own political party and has aspirations to once again be Prime Minister of Israel.

That means that his comments need to be framed both as an internal political issue within the Israeli electorate and as a wider Israeli policy vis-a-vis the Palestinians.

Barak's plan? A disengagement from large portions of the West Bank, including uprooting settlements and using financial incentives to get Israel's to move back inside the Green Line. However, the Etzion and Ariel settlement blocs would not be included in the disengagement:

Defense Minister Ehud Barak is urging the government to examine a plan for unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria. Under the plan, secluded settlements and outposts in Judea and Samaria would be evacuated by the state, and any Jews wishing to remain in the region would be permitted to live there under Palestinian rule.

In a special interview with Israel Hayom, to be published in full on Tuesday, Barak outlined the details of his plan and explained the logic behind it. Under Barak's plan, the settlement blocs of Gush Etzion, Maaleh Adumim and Ariel would remain intact. These blocs house some 90 percent of Judea and Samaria's Jewish population. Strategic areas (such as the Samarian hills overlooking Ben-Gurion International Airport) would similarly remain under Israeli control, and an Israeli military presence in the Jordan Valley would be ensured. The remainder of the territory would be handed over to the Palestinians to establish a state. Dozens of small Jewish communities would have to be evacuated.


Barak's plan elicited a harsh response from the right on Monday, with Likud Minister Yuli Edelstein saying that "this is not a disengagement plan we are talking about. This is our survival. Ehud Barak is continuing to make rookie mistakes. After supporting the disastrous Oslo Accords, orchestrating the escape from Lebanon and advancing the withdrawal from Gaza, which put a million Israelis in bomb shelters, Barak is now willing to put millions more in harms way just to get more votes."

There has been no visible movement on the peace process in the past couple of years as Hamas has solidified its hold on Gaza while Fatah continues running the show in the West Bank autonomous areas where Palestinians have civil administrative control. Pursuant to the Oslo Accords, the Palestinian Authority has full civil administrative control over certain portions, shared security arrangements in other areas, and Israel controls the remaining areas. The ultimate disposition of the West Bank would be determined in an agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. But since Hamas has remained steadfast in its refusal to recognize Israel's very right to exist and has no interest in holding to already signed deals between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, there's been no movement. Israel can't work on a peace deal when it doesn't have a partner in peace.

Elections are likely in the next year, and Barak thinks he's got a shot at winning the opportunity to forge a coalition government rather than Netenyahu. Disengagement isn't likely to sit well with many Israelis after the Gaza experiment, though there are significant differences between the two scenarios. For one, Hamas had a greater presence in Gaza than in the West Bank, and Fatah has been more willing to coordinate security with Israel. That isn't to say that disengagement is without risk to Israel's security.

So, this is where Barak's proposal comes into play. It would seem to be a version of Ariel Sharon's Gaza disengagement plan. It would take into account the demographic problems that face Israel with a growing Palestinian population that would threaten the very character of Israel's Jewishness.

Critics of Barak's plan in Israel point to the problems resulting from the Gaza disengagement. Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor notes that the disengagement from Gaza allowed Hamas to overrun and take control of the area and turned Gaza into a rocket and terrorist haven. Thousands of terror attacks have been launched against Israel - in the form of mortars, kassams, and grad rocket/missile attacks against Israel from Ashkelon and Ashdod through Sderot. Meridor points out that something similar would likely occur if Israel unilaterally withdraws from areas in the West Bank.

"We saw what happened in Gaza," Meridor told Israel Radio, expressing his belief that unilateral withdrawal from settlements is "not a good idea."

"We all want to reach an agreement," he said, "but since Olmert's proposal (in 2006) we haven't had real negotiations, and they [the Palestinians] don't seem to want it."

Meridor stressed that Israel should make an effort to reach an agreement and that the current situation must not continue, but he added that the army must remain in the West Bank for the time being.

Meanwhile, Vice Premier Silvan Shalom all but dismissed the proposal, predicting that Barak will not have sway on government action in the settlements, following elections scheduled for 2013.

The view that Israelis are the ones blocking a path to a peace deal ignore the reality on the ground unless the goal is to establish not a two-state solution, but a three state solution. One for Hamas in Gaza, one for Fatah in the West Bank territories, and Israel. If that's the path to take, then we need to eliminate the fiction that the Palestinian Authority has any actual authority, that the votes the Palestinians took, and their civil war that led to the current situation but that would also mean that Palestinian self-determination in those elections wasn't determinative.

The problem with the three-state solution is that the Palestinians themselves don't appear to want that - they still hold fast to 2-state solution that ultimately leads to a 1-state solution in overruning Israel.

Fatah's Abbas isn't willing to make concessions on right of return or other critical issues that would lead to a new peace deal. And housing and settlements are a non-factor since Israel has repeatedly shown that Israel is willing to uproot settlers from housing to have an opportunity for peace.

They did it in Sinai.

They did it in Gaza.

And they'd do so in the West Bank if there was a peace deal to be had. Without a partner in peace though, the Israelis aren't going to warm up to another unilateral disengagement plan.

Olmert Resigns

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's resignation as Israel's prime minister ends a sad chapter in Israel's history. It was long overdue, and the election of Tzipi Livni will not begin to solve Israel's problems with protecting itself against terrorist attack and negotiating away its safety and security through concessions with terrorists who provide nothing in return.

Olmert's disastrous handling of the Palestinian rocket war, followed closely by the Hizbullah war in Lebanon meant that Israel lost a tactical and strategic edge over terrorist groups who are no less dedicated to Israel's destruction today than they were before Olmert became Prime Minister. In fact, these terrorist groups, including Hizbullah and Hamas are stronger now than they've been because the terrorists see that Israel's weak leadership will condone prisoner swaps for the return of dead Israelis, that Israel will look the other way as rockets fall on Sderot and other Israeli cities and towns, and that Israel will be cast as the aggressor by the international media that looks the other way when the terrorists instigate incidents. Hamas continues to rearm, despite the so-called ceasefire (hudna). And it's not much of a ceasefire given that the terrorists continue to fire rockets and mortars at Israel.

Livni is no panacea for Israel's woes. She's just as incompetent as Olmert, and lacks experience to deal with these matters. I hope I'm wrong about that, but her first inclinations while serving in the Olmert government were to engage in the same kinds of appeasement and concessions that Olmert engaged in. Protecting all of Israel's territory seems secondary to the idea that a peace deal can be reached for a peace deal's sake.

The government will continue as a unity government until new elections are held. Meanwhile, two possible players for prime minister, Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu met to discuss the situation.

"In light of the political, security and economic challenges, the correct move for the people of Israel is [the formation of] a very broad national emergency government. What interests me is what is good for Israel," Barak said at a Labor faction gathering prior to the weekly cabinet meeting.

Barak, who, aides said, may prefer to form a national emergency government with the Likud, met Netanyahu Saturday night at the Defense Ministry and the opposition leader urged Barak to help initiate a new general election rather than join Tzipi Livni's government. Barak, who is scheduled to meet separately with Livni on Sunday, will also hold talks with Shas chairman Eli Yishai.

Earlier Sunday, Barak met President Shimon Peres and the two were said to have discussed Barak's next move in the wake of Livni's primary victory, Army Radio reported.

Meanwhile, there's a possibility of a corruption investigation into the election that brought Livni to power in Kadima over questions of vote tampering and fraud.

By the Rocket's Glare

Even as the mortars and rockets continue pummeling Israel's cities and towns within range of Gaza, the Israeli leadership still thinks that a ceasefire is a good idea. Indeed, some within Olmert's Kadima party are claiming that the Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak is escalating the violence there. That's getting things backwards as Hamas has been increasing the level of attacks for months on end, and Israel is still restraining itself to such a degree that the restraint is mistaken for weakness by the terrorists. That's why they continue to attack Israel mercilessly.

Hamas admits that the massive blast that leveled a building in Gaza, killing four people and wounding 40+ was a result of their own incompetence. They blew themselves up preparing for a major operation against the Israelis.

Note also that Hamas was preparing for a major attack on Israel even as Israel continues to consider a ceasefire. Hamas has no interest in a ceasefire except as to give it time to regroup and rearm. Israel stands to benefit little from such a ceasefire.

Meanwhile, Fatah's Mahmoud Abbas says that Israel and the PA have reached an agreement on 80% of the issues previously addressed before Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated. This is news? Israel offered even more than that when Prime Minister Ehud Barak make his offer at Camp David, and Yasir Arafat turned it down without so much as a counteroffer. We're retreading old ground here, and Abbas wants people to think that progress has been made since that is the only reason he's still around - he needs to have the appearance of doing something to justify continued foreign aid from the US and EU.

UPDATE:
It's been one year since Hamas took over Gaza and tossed Fatah thugs from rooftops across Gaza. It's a year that Gazans would probably like to forget since things have only gotten worse since Hamas laid claim to controlling the territory. MSNBC would like readers to think that this is somehow Israel's fault, despite the fact that Hamas demands nothing less than the destruction of Israel and isn't beyond the murder of Palestinians to reach that result. MSNBC also ignores the fact that Hamas and other terrorist groups purposefully sought to attack fuel shipments, utility lines, and even staged blackouts so as to try and sway public opinion against Israel. Any cuts to power and fuel shipments rest solely on Hamas and the other thugs in charge.

It is the policies imposed by the Palestinian terrorists that dictate what happens there.

Just Leave Already

Gracefully or otherwise.

Recognizing that his political downfall is all but unavoidable, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is considering accepting a proposal by senior Kadima ministers and MKs that is intended to allow the party to prepare for early elections while he leaves the Prime Minister's Office in a dignified manner, sources close to Olmert said Thursday.

According to the proposal, the prime minister would give the authorization necessary to initiate a Kadima primary that would elect his successor.

If Olmert is not charged in the Talansky affair, he would continue to serve as party leader and prime minister until the next general election, and the primary winner would become his heir apparent. If he is indicted and keeps his promise to step down, the winner could either form a new government or lead the party in elections that appear increasingly likely to take place by the end of the year.

Frankly, I don't care how Prime Minister Olmert wants to step down. He could quite easily be taken away in handcuffs, and that would be quite the show.

Olmert doesn't rate a dignified exit. His failures in the Hizbullah war and ongoing rocket war are more than justification for his resignation, but it has taken the corruption probe to finally bring things to this point.

Other reports indicate that Olmert has agreed to a primary election in which he would not participate, effectively ending his term in office.

Of course, his potential successors are busy lining up in their own calls for Olmert's resignation. That includes Tzipi Livni, the current foreign minister, and Ehud Barak, the current defense minister.

More Intrigue Surrounds Israeli PM Olmert

Morris Talansky, the US businessman who has admitted to giving Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert roughly $150,000 over the years says that a good portion of that amount went to his electoral campaigns while the remainder went to Olmert's personal expenses. Of those personal expenses, "...at least $25,000 in cash meant for a vacation in Italy and almost $5,000 to cover Mr. Olmert’s bill at a Washington hotel because Mr. Olmert’s own credit card was “maxed out,” Mr. Talansky said."

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has called on Olmert to step down.

"In the wake of the current situation and considering the challenges Israel faces, including Hamas, Hizbullah, Syria, Iran, the captured soldiers and the peace process, the prime minister cannot simultaneously lead the government and conduct his personal affairs," Barak told a press conference in the Knesset.

"Out of consideration for the good of the country and the accepted norms, I believe the prime minister must detach himself from the day-to-day leadership of country," continued Barak.

Of course, Barak is not a disinterested party since he too could be in line to become the next Prime Minister of Israel. Barak has already served in that capacity, and was involved in the 2000 Camp David deal that Palestinian Authority leader Yasir Arafat couldn't even dignify with a counterproposal and whose minions launched right into another intifada.

It should never have come to this as Olmert should have been thrown out of office following his disastrous handling of the Hizbullah war and his ongoing failures to deal with the Gaza rocket war.

UPDATE:
Meryl Yourish notes that a countdown clock should be in order. Still, Olmert has managed to stay in power despite the Winograd report, the rocket war, and the ongoing corruption investigation. This guy is better coated in Teflon than even John Gotti.

Olmert has turned around and slammed Barak for calling for Olmert's resignation. Pot, meet kettle.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Lipni thinks that she's going to have a shot at being Prime Minister, so she's busy putting forth statements like this.

All this comes as rockets and mortars continue slamming into Israel from Gaza. It's hilarious listening to the likes of Desmond Tutu complaining about Israel's defensive measures as the rockets and mortars keep slamming into Israeli homes, businesses, and farms. He's busy complaining that the Israeli blockade of Gaza is illegal, ignoring the fact that Hamas has openly declared war on Israel and seeks its destruction, and that Gaza is being blockaded by not only Israel, but Egypt as well. No one wants anything to do with the Palestinians in Gaza because they intend nothing but death and misery on those around them.

Talks, Terrorists, and a Rocket War

Talks between Israel and the Palestinian terrorists continue, even as the rockets continue slamming into Israeli towns near Gaza. Those residents are fed up with the lack of appropriate response to the attacks, even as Israeli airstrikes killed the terrorist cell responsible for the attack yesterday that killed a 70 year old Israeli grandmother, Shula Katz at Moshav Yesha.

Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the latest kassam attacks. So did the PRC.

Israel has agreed to close down one of its checkpoints in the West Bank, as though that will do anything to stop the incessant attacks against Israel from Gaza? Fatah may stand to gain from that move, but they are no more interested in peace with Israel than Hamas. They're only more circumspect in their goals and are more likely to use diplomacy than terrorism to carve up Israel.

Hamas says that Gilad Shalit will not be part of any truce between it and Israel. Why not? Let's see Hamas engage in a good faith measure for once in its existence. That's certainly too much to ask for, and the terrorist group continues to stand by its demands for the Israelis to release hundreds of its terrorists from Israeli jails as part of any deal. Good faith gestures work both ways - Israel shouldn't have to bear the burden of engaging in concessions and good faith gestures while the terrorists in Hamas and Fatah get to issue platitudes that they quickly ignore as they resume their fight against Israel.

Meanwhile, President Bush is likely to be made to eat these words shortly, as he calls Prime Minister an honest man, and Abbas is a true peace partner. I don't think Bush could have gotten that any more wrong if he tried. Olmert is likely to get indicted for corruption any day now, especially as the Israeli authorities continue digging into his actions at Industry, Trade and Labor Ministry in Jerusalem, and have seized documents related to illicit funding case.

Abbas has never been a partner in peace, and has never wavered from the position taken by Arafat in his years of stonewalling on peace with Israel - the Palestinian position has not changed one iota regarding Israel's right to exist, a two-state solution, or the right of return, to say nothing of the status of Jerusalem. Again, this may be Bush's attempt to prop up Abbas and Fatah, but there's no good reason to do so when Fatah has not shown itself to be a partner in peace. That Fatah is only marginally less violent than Hamas is not a reason to prop it up and provide it with hundreds of millions of dollars in aid, especially when Fatah could fall to Hamas should Hamas restart the Palestinian civil war and get its hands on all the weapons and equipment provided to the Palestinian Authority and Fatah.

UPDATE:
Palestinian propaganda and their sympathetic human rights groups strike again. A Gazan claimed by the Palestinians to have died waiting for health care in Israel was quite alive and well. His own family claimed him as dead so that he wouldn't have to go through a screening process required for entry into Israel:

On the eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day, al-Harrani’s story was published. His family reported to the “Physicians for Human Rights” organization that he died. “The sick man could not withstand the wait for the permit,” claimed Ran Yaron, Director of the Occupied Territories Department who blamed the Shin Bet for adopting cruel policies against cancer patients.

However, the next day, the organization discovered that al-Harrani was still alive. Members of group estimated that his brother, who reported the death, “killed” him so he does not report to the questioning session.

“This is a rare case where a family member knowingly provided false information to the organization,” Physicians for Human Rights said. “Usually, the organization receives information from the families and from the hospitals, but in this case the information was received from the family and was not confirmed by the hospital."

UPDATE:
I can't wait to see what understanding was reached between the Israelis and Fatah.

This Is a Lull?

The diplomats are desperate to call the situation in Gaza a lull in the violence, but the terrorists simply can't help themselves in withholding from their desperate attacks to kill and maim Israelis. Fifteen rockets slammed into Israel overnight, two causing damage in Sderot. Again.

The terrorists have no interest in peace with Israel and use lulls in the violence as a pregnant pause to regroup and rearm. Israel's Prime Minister Olmert plays into their hands by telling the IDF to curtail its operations in Gaza, which gives the terrorists breathing room to regroup.

At least now Olmert's timid responses can be offset by Defense Minister Barak's push to go after the terrorists. Until the incompetent Amir Peretz stepped down, there was no voice in the Israeli leadership to go after the terrorists and put the incessant rocket attacks to an end. Barak is at least making a push in that direction, but Olmert's failings continue to thwart Israel's basic security posture by pushing for ongoing talks with Fatah who provides cover for the terrorists and for engaging in backchannel talks with Hamas via Egypt.

The IDF is still intercepting terrorists before they carry out their attacks, and took out one of their rocket launchers.

Abbas shows that he's still an unrepentant terrorist at heart - calling Israel's actions to take out terrorists who murdered eight Israeli students at Yeshiva Mercaz Harav barbaric.

UPDATE:
Biased headline of the day: Israel and Gaza Trade Fire

That's right - just like carbon emissions, they're just trading Prometheus' flame.

The terrorists got busy firing off barrages of kassams at Israel, which slammed into Sderot as usual, and Israel has responded with airstrikes against the terrorists. That's not a fair trade. A fair trade would be dead terrorists. All Israel got was a terrorist rocket launching platform.

And of course, the New York Times not so subtly blames Israel for the uptick in violence because Israel went and killed four terrorists who were involved in an earlier terror plot (and included members of Fatah and Islamic Jihad - you mean you're shocked, SHOCKED! to see Fatah and Islamic Jihad working together?!). Israel is supposed to sit back and take terrorist attack after attack?

Hamas Sets Terms For Hudna

Once again, the terrorists win by dictating the terms of what happens with Israel.

Hamas set out its conditions on Wednesday for a ceasefire with Israel, calling for an end to all acts of Israeli "aggression" in the Gaza Strip and West Bank and the reopening of Gaza border crossings.

The terms mirrored proposals raised by Egyptian mediators trying to piece together a truce deal, which would also end Gaza rocket attacks on Israel by militants from Hamas and other Palestinian groups.

Violence has declined sharply over the past week. A ceasefire could foster progress in U.S.-brokered peace talks between Israel and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, whose Fatah faction lost control of the Gaza Strip to Hamas last June.

"There must be a commitment by Israel to end all acts of aggression against our people, assassinations, killings and raids, and lift the (Gaza) siege and reopen the crossings," Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Hamas's administration in the Gaza Strip, said in a speech.

There's nothing in there about Hamas stopping its terrorist attacks against Israel - only that Hamas might refrain from attacks if Israel stops going after the terrorists.

Of course, the terrorists fired a mortar at Israel, but it fell short. And a smuggling tunnel between Egypt and Gaza collapsed, killing one of the tunnelers. That's going to leave a mark.

And Hamas is also upping its demands for Israel to get back Gilad Shalit - they now want 750 terrorists in return.

Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak calls such demands rubbish, but the fact is that Olmert is pressuring the Israeli military to curtail its efforts to kill terrorists in Gaza.

Hizbullah is also chirping today, claiming that Israel wont go after them because they fear heavy losses. The problem isn't the deaths of Israeli soldiers, but the inept leadership that wastes Israeli soldiers' lives in half-assed efforts to kill terrorists. Hizbullah lost a significant chunk of its thugs in South Lebanon, but Israel missed the opportunity to deal the terrorists a crushing blow because Olmert and the politicians dithered over how to proceed.

UPDATE:
And even as they talk about a ceasefire, the terrorists are still busy little thugs, attempting attacks all the while (and firing their kassam rockets that can kill and maim). And it's not like the West Bank is silent either - the Israelis keep rounding up terrorists or killing them there too.

Islamic terrorists have fired 6 kassams into Israel since midnight local time. Yeah, Islamophobia causes terrorism. Sorry, but you folks at the OIC have it backwards. Terrorism done in the name of Islam causes Islamophobia. Stop the terrorism, and people wont have this problem.

UPDATE:
YNet reports the following without the slightest hint of irony.

Will truce last? At least eight Qassam rockets were fired at Sderot from the northern Gaza Strip Wednesday night following a brief lull in attacks on southern Israel communities.


Two rockets landed in town, near a school and next to a warehouse, and caused some damage. Security forces were attempting to pinpoint the landing site of another rocket that apparently fell in a residential area. One rocket landed in the Strip, while the others landed in open areas outside Sderot.

A truce is a cessation of violence. Firing rockets is clear evidence that there is no truce. The terrorists were simply hoping to have time to regroup and rearm, and they're now back to firing their kassams at Israel. It coincides with Israel's government telling the military to curtail its efforts in Gaza - and now that the terrorists have taken advantage of Israel's leadership, they're back in the game.