This means that the UNIFIL mission in Lebanon has failed. It means that the Cedar Revolution has failed, and the US support for the Siniora government was a failure as well. Perhaps one can argue that there was no good choices for the Siniora government and that the refusal to drag the military into the fight against Hizbullah was meant to prevent civil war, but that's precisely what Hizbullah did - not only did they fight a civil war, but they won it handily.
The anti-Hizbullah March 14 group turned to the military, which is penetrated by Hizbullah to make the decision as to whether to fight Hizbullah. That choice was a doomed one, but the March 14 movement did not want to become what they despised most - Hizbullah. So, they will now have to deal with Hizbullah control.
Hizbullah could not allow Lebanon to free itself from Syrian influence. Part of that comes from the need to retain its links to the terror masters in Damascus, but it's also to protect Damascus from the possibility of exposing the true nature of who was behind the political assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians including Rafiq Hariri. Hizbullah's actions are meant to thwart the investigation.
What does this further teach the world about the possibility of integrating Islamist supremacist groups such as Hizbullah into a political system? It can't be done, despite their claims to the contrary. They don't seek to become part of the system; they seek to dominate and impose their own in its stead.
Beirut Spring also reports that the Arab countries are going to be meeting about the possibility of sending forces to Lebanon to deal with the situation. This would be Saudi Arabia's way to trying to limit Syrian and Iranian influence, but that clearly would ratchet up the likelihood of a wider conflict in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Olmert says that he will bring an end to the rocket war emanating from Gaza. That claim is only three years and nearly 5,000 rockets too late. With Lebanon fully in Hizbullah's clutches, a rocket war commencing from Lebanon is an all too real possibility as well. Olmert's failures to deal with Hizbullah in the August war are coming back to haunt everyone. Those failures are compounded by the failure of the UN to fulfill its mission in Lebanon to disarm Hizbullah, which clearly wasn't done as evidenced by the Hizbullah gunmen running wild all over the place in full view of the world media.
The events in Lebanon are also providing yet another opportunity to hear from the US Presidential candidates on their foreign policy, and I'm sure that this will not come as a surprise to anyone who has followed Barack Obama, but he's looking to negotiate with Hizbullah:
Hezbollah's power grab in Beirut has once more plunged that city into violence and chaos. This effort to undermine Lebanon's elected government needs to stop, and all those who have influence with Hezbollah must press them to stand down immediately. It's time to engage in diplomatic efforts to help build a new Lebanese consensus that focuses on electoral reform, an end to the current corrupt patronage system, and the development of the economy that provides for a fair distribution of services, opportunities and employment. We must support the implementation of UN Security Council Resolutions that reinforce Lebanon's sovereignty, especially resolution 1701 banning the provision of arms to Hezbollah, which is violated by Iran and Syria. As we push for this national consensus, we should continue to support the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Siniora, strengthen the Lebanese army, and insist on the disarming of Hezbollah before it drags Lebanon into another unnecessary war. As we do this, it is vital that the United States continues to work with the international community and the private sector to rebuild Lebanon and get its economy back on its feet.Hizbullah's power grab has pushed the entire country into chaos. Fighting still continues in Tripoli. Hizbullah has cemented its authority over South Lebanon, and has co-opted the Siniora government. If you're seeking consensus, that means you've got to negotiate with Hizbullah, which is on the State Department's list of terrorist groups. Hizbullah is the same terrorist group that killed 241 Americans in the October 1983 barracks bombing operating at the direction of their terror masters in Iran.
Also, Obama insists on the disarming of Hizbullah. Ouch, I'm sure Hizbullah will lay down its arms at the mere mention of Obama insisting. Hizbullah will do no such thing unless they are forced to lay down their arms or are destroyed by those who understand the existential threat Hizbullah poses to Lebanon.
Once again, we see how Obama would respond to an international crisis, and his words echo those of Neville Chamberlain - peace on paper as the threats continue unabated and unanswered.
UPDATE:
Heavy fighting is being reported outside Beirut, and some reports suggest that upwards of 100 people have been killed in the fighting since the latest crisis developed last week.
Some people think that the USS Cole, which just transited the Suez Canal is heading towards the Lebanese coast. What exactly is a single warship going to do? It's not going to put troops on the ground, nor will it deter Hizbullah from taking any further action. It's an empty gesture, unless it will be followed shortly by US Navy strikes against targets not only in Lebanon, but Syria and/or Iran. Going after Hizbullah only affects the symptoms - you need to go after the regimes in Damascus and Tehran to go for a cure of what ails Lebanon.
Hizbullah has put the kibosh on any redevelopment in Lebanon as people are wondering when the hammer will strike midnight.
Abu Kais notes that Walid Jumblatt knew that the military would not intervene should Hizbullah engage in a coup d'etat. That's precisely what happened, and everything went according to Hoyle.
UPDATE:
As always, read Totten for the latest on the situation in Lebanon.
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