Devil in the Details

So, is the latest announcement that North Korea has agreed to dismantle its nuclear program nothing more than Agreed Framework Two, or is it a genuine move to completely dismantle and open up the nuclear weapons program to inspectors and the elimination of North Korea's nuclear weapons program?

The partner nations agreed to provide roughly $400 million in various kinds of aid in return for the North starting a permanent disabling of its nuclear facilities and allowing inspectors into the country.

Perhaps equally important, the United States and Japan agreed to discuss normalizing relations with Pyongyang. The United States will begin the process of removing North Korea from its designation as a terror-sponsoring state and also on ending U.S. trade and financial sanctions.

Among the negotiators, Japan did not agree to the aid package, however, saying it first needs to work out further bilateral issues regarding abductions by the North.

The accord sets a 60-day deadline for North Korea to accomplish the first steps toward disarmament, and leaves until an undefined moment — and to another negotiation — the actual removal of North Korea's nuclear weapons and the fuel manufactured to produce them.

Under the agreement, the first part of the aid -- 50,000 tons of fuel oil, or an equivalent value of economic or humanitarian aid -- would be provided by South Korea, Russia, China and the United States; in the case of the United States , that would require congressional approval, which is likely to be difficult to get.

For disabling the reactor and declaring all nuclear programs, the North will eventually receive another 950,000 tons in aid. Further negotiations are to begin on March 19 in Beijing.

It appears that North Korea is going to get 50,000 tons of fuel oil regardless of whether they proceed past the first stage of negotiations. It's on this basis that I think North Korea will continue to string along the six party talks for as long as possible.

This news report doesn't say whether there are penalties involved for noncompliance with the various milestones set forth. Much about this deal is still to be decided in future negotiations, which leaves open the possibility of L'il Kim's chicanery.

Tigerhawk points out that the US diplomat involved in the negotiations, Christopher Hill, has quite the reputation among Japanese and Chinese diplomats.

The Bullwinkle Blog is worried, especially as John Bolton has panned the deal even as the State Department is lauding it. It is peculiar how that happens. The State Department does have a disconnect between diplomacy and the real world - diplomats will often confuse pieces of paper with results. That happened with the 1994 Agreed Framework where there was insufficient verification that North Korea was abiding by the agreements, and it could very well happen here if there is insufficient verification that North Korea is actually dismantling and eliminating its nuclear weapons, reactors, and materials.

UPDATE:
North Korea is already spinning this as a major victory for them. They see this as temporary suspension of a program, not as the first step to permanent disarmament and dismantling of the nuclear program.