Fallout From Gemayel's Assassination

Saad Hariri blames Syria for the assassination of Gemayel and hopes that the Lebanese government can form a unity government. As it stands now, if the government loses one more minister, it is no longer constitutional and would be dissolved. If that happens, Syria and Hizbullah benefit greatly. Hariri is the son of Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated last year, and the movement that formed around the anti-Syrian contingent became known as the March 14 group. Syria was forced to publicly withdraw from Lebanon, although their tentacles remain firmly entrenched on Lebanon's throat.

The problem is that the March 14 group is under assault from Syria and Hizbullah, which don't bother with politics when assassination, violence, and intimidation work more efficiently. Protest babes don't stand much of a chance if the leaders of the movement are assassinated or threatened into silence.

The situation remains grim, and the folks who are most needed in rebuilding the economy - the educated and well off, are fleeing the country, knowing that a bad situation might turn into civil war at any time.

"The bulk of students right now are leaving," said Michel Chalhoub, chair of five MBA programs at the Lebanese American University (LAU). "Sad, isn't it? If things were fabulous, they would certainly stay."

Four MBA students at LAU estimated about 70 percent of their classmates were going abroad for work, and they drew a direct connection between the flight and Lebanon's deteriorating political scene. Still, they emphasized that their first choice would be to stay in Lebanon.

"We'd love to stay here," said Maggie Tchekijian of Anjar. "It depends on the political situation in the country. Plan A, I want to stay here."

"I would like to live here, [but] I think that [students] would love to leave," said Suzanne Khalifeh of Jbeil, an MBA student at the Ecole Superieure des Affaires (ESA).

Condemnation of the assassination was widespread, but does anyone actually believe Syria when it says that it wasn't involved? Who has the most to benefit from Lebanon's political situation descending into chaos? Syria.

UPDATE:
Thousands of mourners lined up to pay their respects to Gemayel’s family in his hometown of Bekfaya. The Lebanese military has deployed forces to Beirut in case Hizbullah gets any ideas.

Meanwhile, there's a rumor that someone called in an inquiry into a Lebanese newspaper about the assassination of Gemayel 55 minutes before the assassination took place. Take with a grain of salt.

UPDATE:
Curt at Flopping Aces has an excellent roundup of the fallout and suggests that this is continuing fallout from the US elections where Democrats who counsel negotiating with the likes of Syria and Iran over Iraq managed to win the majority in Congress. I'd suggest that this may have emboldened the jihadis and anti-Americans around the Middle East, but they've been angling to slice and dice Lebanon for more than a year now. Gemayel's assassination was only the latest in a string of political killings (and another anti-Syrian politician had an attempt on his life yesterday as well).

Hot Air points out that Hizbullah blames Israel for the assassination. Nice try. Your Jedi mind tricks don't work here.

Rick Moran thinks that this might get the Lebanese people to face up to the ominous threat posed by Hizbullah and that it might revitalize the democratic movement in Lebanon. I think the Lebanese people still think that they can bargain with Hizbullah and make the problem appear to go away, but Hizbullah isn't going to go quietly or without a fight. Once they realize that they don't have a choice, it will get ugly very quickly.

Vital Perspective notes that President Bush stops short of blaming Syria for the assassination, and that he calls for an international investigation. I'm sure the UN will get right on that - they're still trying to arrange the tribunal looking into the assassination of Rafik Hariri from last year.

UPDATE:
Former Secretary of State James Baker (and currently interposing his views on US foreign policy in the current Bush administration MidEast foreign policy) thinks that we need to engage the likes of Assad in Syria. What is gained from dealing with thugs and supporters of international terrorism except more thugocratic actions, terrorism, and a showing that the US will tolerate a level of terrorism against it, even when it doesn't further US strategic or tactical interests in the region.

This isn't simply a matter of dealing with the devil to solve the problems in Iraq. Syria and Iran both are meddling in Iraq, just as they are in Lebanon. They want those countries to fail because it means that they'll fill the vacuum. These are not disinterested parties, but rather vultures awaiting a tasty feast.

Others noting Baker's comments and how the so called realists have to ignore the reality of political assassinations as a tactic of choice by Syria and Iran include Blue Crab Boulevard and Macranger.

Jules Crittenden has a thoughtful piece on the situation in Lebanon.

Dan Riehl points out that Walid Phares wants the UN to intervene in Lebanon. I'm with Riehl. What exactly can the UN do? It already has peacekeepers in the country that are little more than babysitters for Hizbullah as that terror group reorganizes and rearms for its next war with Israel. The US has to do more than simply state that it supports democracies in the region. It needs to flex its muscles. The alternatives are hard to ignore - yet another failed state in the region home to an Islamic terror group dedicated to imposing its version of Islam on the world.

UPDATE:
Atlas Shrugs picks up what Ambassador Bolton had to say about the assassination of Gemayel. She also notes that there are still people who want to deny Bolton the ambassadorship at the UN despite the fact that he's actually advancing US interests in that odious body.

Others blogging the assassination and the fallout: Cake or Death, Mensa Barbie, Macranger, and Small Town Veteran.

Posted to Outside the Beltway's Traffic Jam, Basil's Blog, and Jo's Cafe.


Technorati: assassination, lebanon, gemayel, syria, hizbullah.