Decision Day

So, we'll finally find out whether the months of mudslinging and vitriol will make any difference in the makeup of the House and Senate. Will the Democrats crack the GOP hold on the House or will they fall short? Can the GOP hold the Senate? I'm betting that the Democrats fall short, and while it might be a tall order, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

The most recent polls suggest yet more tightening, though take it with a grain of salt.

The NYT is already walking back from the outrageous predictions of huge Democrat gains. That shouldn't surprise anyone. When a gain will seem like a failure. The fact is that if this election holds to form (prior midterm elections of a second term incumbent President), the Democrats should pick up seats. The question is whether they'll pick up enough to switch control, and despite all the claims of a Blue wave, it appears that there was nothing of the sort.

Voter turnout will be the key to making sure that the Democrats are spending the next two years sputtering about wondering about what if and what could have been. They'll wonder about Kerry's gaffes and the ability to win elections when supposedly everything is supposed to be breaking their way.

On the flipside, Democrats could really take control of the House, and that's not a total loss - losing seats in a midterm is the norm, not the exception. However, what Democrats do with that control will shape the 2008 Presidential election quite clearly. The Democrats will have to come up with an actual agenda, not simply run every anti-Bush policy imaginable. There will be votes. And candidates for President will have to take sides (and some might even take all the sides on the same issue).

If they think that they can spend the next two years cutting funding for the war in Iraq, impeachment/censure talk, or endless investigations, you will see a backlash like none other.

The stock markets will probably cheer if the Congress splits or stays in GOP hands because it means gridlock and/or favorable economic measures. The markets are probably favoring the gridlock and are showing nice gains today after yesterday's strong gains.

More ominiously is that there are reports of chicanery in Philadelphia and scattered problems with electronic ballots. Be assured that these problems will be magnified as the day progresses and the close races prove to be closer than anyone possibly imagined. We'll also hear lots of rumors through the course of the day. Many will go unsubstantiated. Some may prove to be accurate.

I'm not talking about the claims that Diebold is stealing the election, which inevitably will come from the deep recesses of the blogosphere on the left. I'm talking about election fraud, dead voting, and other real examples that lead to disinfranchisement for legitimate voters.

Further, I'm not going to pay attention to the exit polls, given their unreliability. Sure, they might make for some exciting discussion around 5PM and could affect turnout in those jurisdictions where the polls are still open. They will probably not reflect the overall vote, which is the only poll that counts. I'm expecting the polls to undercount the GOP by 1-3 points, which follows prior election year trends. And expect those on the Left to crow about such exit polls as though they're the divine word, and if the actual vote diverges from the exit polls, they'll scream holy hell despite the fact that those exit polls have been notoriously unreliable in the past.

Charles at LGF has an open thread on the election day (where I'll be posting from time to time).

AJ Strata offers his predictions, as does Dynamobuzz and EnlightenNJ for NJ.

Fausta notes Orson Scott Card's essay that the overriding issue for this election, and all future elections should be the War on Terror, and which party is best equipped to win it. Simply put, he doesn't think well of his party - the Democrats. I happen to agree. As a registered Democrat, I found the Democrat party message to be one of failure, no clear plan, and nothing that would constitute leadership other than simply thwarting Bush. Ankle biting is not leadership. That's Michael Kinsey saying those things (no lover of the Bush Administration either). Americans are a generally optimistic bunch, and claiming that the situation in Iraq is a failure is only seeing what they want to see, not what is really going on there. They hear what the soldiers on the front lines are saying, and it's one that calls for completing the mission and not abandoning the Iraqis to the fates just as we did after 1991, or the South Vietnamese after the so called peace with honor in 1975. Millions died as a result of those withdrawals before completing the mission.

It is not a simple mission, but it is one of the most utmost urgency.

The Corner is near live blogging the vote, and the usual caveats apply about news, rumor, and gossip.

Pajamas Media is covering the election.

UPDATE:
It didn't take long for the nutcases to already start claiming that the election is rigged and the results already predetermined. (HT: gang of one at LGF)

Hot Air is covering things, including with a chat room (those things are spreading wildly). Michelle Malkin is keeping tabs on the problem areas, the general nailbiter situation, and the lunatic fringe.

UPDATE:
Those who will be covering the election returns this evening include Wizbang, Outside the Beltway, and LaShawn Barber.

The media outlets are going to try something new to embargo the exit polling data - ostensibly to prevent its leakage to the bloggers. Yeah, that's right. Bloggers. Considering that the exit polls in 2004 were so screwed up, why anyone should consider them worth the effort except as to potentially subtly alter the races that are still to be decided.

The new electronic ballots aren't doing so well either. Voter intimidation? Check. Fraud? Check.

This is going to shape up as one heck of a day/night. Stay tuned.

UPDATE:
Can you say litigation? I knew you could. Check out the Election law blog for updates on the potential for litigation over today's election.

UPDATE:
Scattered problems in Essex and Camden counties in NJ. Hmmmm, that bears watching.

Technorati: bush, kean, lieberman, menendez, gop, democrat, election, politics, exit poll, diebold, voters, vote, 2006 elections, republicans, democrats.