Betting on the Outcome

I've made a friendly wager with regular reader Anonymous Emailer as to the outcome of tomorrow's midterm elections.

The terms of the bet are simple. He's betting that either the House or the Senate will go to the Democrats, while I'm betting that the GOP will retain both the House and Senate.

The wager is $20.

I'm pretty confident that the GOP will retain the Senate as not only the polling and general sentiments across the political spectrum shows that the GOP will maintain at least a one vote advantage (Cheney's tiebreaker in some cases). I think it will more likely be a 2-3 vote advantage. New Jersey will stay in Democrat hands despite the ethical mess that is Bob Menendez. That Clinton and others had to come into New Jersey to stump for him shows just how weak the Democrats were and needed serious help in a state where they maintain 2:1 advantage.

I'm not as confident in the House, but I still think the GOP will end up getting out the vote in sufficient numbers to deal the Democrats yet another loss. This election, like all others, is about turnout. If more GOPers turn out than Democrats in the various key races, they're more likely going to win or retain those seats.

Technorati: politics, 2006 midterms, midterm elections.