Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell, Part XVI

Israel has been taking heavy rocket fire from Hizbullah, with more than 100 rockets fired and one Israeli killed (Jpost says 150). One of the rockets landed in the West Bank, which makes it the furthest a rocket has travelled. That particular rocket landed in Beit She'an, which is 70km from border. YnetNews reports that one rocket landed in Jenin. Where are the harsh condemnations by the UN for Hizbullah's war crimes. *crickets* Israel has been fighting fierce battles deep inside Lebanon and thousands of Israeli soldiers are operating inside Lebanon. The raid on Baalbek was quite successful, with Israeli commandoes taking a number of Hizbullah terrorists prisoner. The initial IDF team was discovered, and a firefight ensued with Hizbullah taking significant losses.
After inspecting the identification of everyone in the hospital, the IDF soldiers proceeded to arrest several Hizbullah officials, who were later transported back into Israel. The officials' names and positions in the organization were not revealed.

The main target of the operation was allegedly Muhammad Yazbek, a senior figure in the organization; however, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz said in a briefing on Wednesday that IDF forces "weren't there to obtain something specific." Yazbek was not in the hospital at the time of the raid.

No IDF soldiers were wounded in the operation, an army spokesperson told The Jerusalem Post.
That's despite the claims by Hizbullah that the IDF took heavy casualties in the attack in Baalbek. The facility was built by Iran to provide aid and comfort to Hizbullah. The IDF says it took five Hizbullah in operations in Lebanon. Bill Roggio, Hyscience, and Blue Crab Boulevard have more.

Despite the claims to the contrary by Hizbullah and others, some think that Hizbullah is on the ropes, and that Israel has sent a message to Damascus and Tehran in the process:
Hizballah is Iran’s ground force against Israel. Iran has no other offensive capabilities in the Levant aside from missiles launched from their own borders that will likely get shot out of the air. After Hizballah, they’re out of options at the moment. Israel knows this and is giving Iran a face-saving way to quietly back out. After all, Iran never ‘gave permission’ for Hizballah to fire their weapons. Israel is saying, “Take your 60 recently sent jihadists back and go home.” If Iran ignores this, there really is little they can do in any event, as the logistical conduit utilized from Syria is increasingly being collapsed under the weight of Israeli air power.

But Hizballah is also Syria’s principle ground force against Israel. Syria’s shallow army is the one force aside from Hizballah that can muster a fight within the battlespace. It would be a short fight at that. But in any event, for Syria, Israel hands a different message without a face-saving option. By declaring the Assad is ‘directly invovled,’ Israel is warning him, ‘“We know what you’re doing and we hold you personally responsible.”

Israel does not need to roll tanks on Damascus or even drop a few 2000-pounders on military installations. They simply need to convey that it’s just as easy to bank east from Baalbek as it is to bank west. Leave the option to Assad. He likes his palaces. He’ll make the right self-preserving choice.
That's not to say that Assad isn't trying to smuggle weapons to Hizbullah (he is), but IAF airstrikes dispatch those weapons transfers, and with all the secondary explosions going off after those strikes, one knows that the trucks were carrying weapons and ammo.

The news agencies stand by the Qana photos, despite the mounting evidence that all is not right with the photos or those who are depicted in them. The IDF is even reevaluating the incident based on questions raised by various bloggers, including Confederate Yankee, EU Referendum, and LGF. Meanwhile, Robert Fisk continues his tradition of making asinine and fact-challenged statements (starting with the casualty count, which he continues to rely upon the Hizbullah inflated figure and not the lower ICRC figure, and it goes downward from there).

Israel continues to go after Hizbullah's rocket launchers, destroying one in Bint Jbeil.

Rockets also continue being fired from Gaza, hitting locations in the Negev and near Ashkelon. Palestinians also opened fire on the IDF in Gaza and threw bombs at them in Jenin.

Bloggers to check in with for daily updates are Blue Crab Boulevard, Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, Hot Air, Jameel at the Muqata, Greetings from the French Hill, R'Lazer, and Live from an Israeli Bunker. Check back with them regularly for updates.

UPDATE:
Fixed a link above to the JPost story on bloggers.

It's the launchers stupid! Ed notes that for all the fixation on rockets and missiles in Hizbullah's arsenal, it's the launchers that will determine whether Hizbullah can attack deep into Israel. Rockets are easy to hide. Truck mounted rocket launchers are easy to uncover. They have to scoot and shoot, and they make very inviting targets for the IAF. That's why so many roads and bridges were damaged or destroyed - all to prevent Hizbullah from using those roads for the launchers. What we're seeing is Hizbullah trying to fire its rockets before it runs out of launchers. At least, that's what Ed thinks is going on and seems to jibe with the IAF/IDF moves to limit Hizbullah movement from the get-go.

The NYT reports that President Bush's relations with Israel are showing a gap between him and his father. Well, that makes sense when you realize that President Bush (41) was in office, he restrained Israel from retaliating for the hundreds of Scud missiles launched by Saddam into Israel to try and break the coalition of Arab countries put together by Bush 41. That isn't the situation today. Israel is fighting Islamic terrorists, and many of the Arab and Islamic countries are sitting on the sidelines, or else they're backing Hizbullah (Iran and Syria). This reflects the changed circumstances in the Middle East, and the realization that the US war on terror is facing the same Islamic terror threats facing Israel.

Meanwhile, as the EU wants to get a ceasefire before considering the disarmament of Hizbullah, the US puts the disarmament first - as it must be. And there are a few European countries who are distancing themselves from the EU position, including Germany, UK, and the Czech Republic.

David Ignatius thinks that the current conflict might open up new opportunities for peace, based on what happened in the aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. I think he's misguided:
The 1973 war marked a historic turning point, in ways that no one could initially have predicted. And it is just possible that the current conflict offers a similar opportunity. The key missing element, so far at least, is a Kissinger-level diplomatic commitment by the United States. Condoleezza Rice came close to a Lebanon peace deal last weekend, but to pull it off, she will need to move more toward Kissinger's stance of honest broker.

To turn the Lebanon disaster of 2006 into an opportunity, each side will have to alter its view of the other. In dealing with the Palestinians and the Lebanese, the Israelis will have to revise their doctrine that their adversaries can be coerced solely by military force. As Gal Luft, a retired Israeli military officer, commented at a conference in Washington last week, the days are long past when Arab fighters would see the advancing Israeli army, discard their boots and flee in terror.
Israel soundly defeated Egypt and Syria, and could easily have encircled both Cairo and Damascus had the UN not stepped in to save both from a humiliating defeat. While Egypt realized the nature of its defeat (and publicly called its war a success and triumph over the Zionists), they made a cold peace with Israel in 1977 at Camp David - including the transfer of Sinai back to Egyptian control (but not Gaza curiously enough). Syria never learned its lesson.

Israel now faces an enemy whose religious and political beliefs are firmly emmeshed in the annihilation of the state of Israel. There is no room for negotiation when the opening and closing gambit by Hizbullah is the destruction of Israel. Syria and Iran have used Hizbullah instead of its own troops, who would suffer the same fate as their brothers in arms a generation ago. Hizbullah succeeds where other Arab armies fail because it sees the world through its religious aims, and not the nationalistic aims of Syria or other Arab countries. All the same, Hizbullah has been soundly defeated at every engagement, and must stick to guerilla tacitics to fire rockets into Israel.

Those rocket attacks continue to kill and injure Israelis, and while it's harassing and disruptive to the Israelis, it doesn't diminish Israel's military posture in the slightest. Hizbullah announces a major victory when it finds a couple of Israeli canteens left behind by Israeli troops as they move on to other military objectives. Israel succeeds when it shows footage of rocket launchers getting destroyed or announces that it has killed or captured Hizbullah terrorists.

What Ignatius misses is that Kissinger had quite a bit of difficulty in getting Israel to agree to a ceasefire, and it took quite a bit of cajoling to get Israel to back off on its campaign, especially in Sinai where Sharon had encircled an entire Egyptian army and could have marched onto Cairo with no resistance. Kissinger also had the prism of the Cold War to rein in events, as the Russians also exerted pressure to get the combatants to cease combat. No counterveiling balance exists here. Iran and Syria can continue to provoke the conflict with no harm to them directly.

When a ceasefire comes, it will come when Israel has achieved its objectives and an international peacemaking force will be able to be sent to Lebanon to deal with the remnants of Hizbullah and help the Lebanese put their country back together after Syria, Iran, and Hizbullah turned it into a battlezone. At that point, Rice will be able to get the diplomatic actions needed to get a sustainable ceasefire.

UPDATE:
Move over Baghdad Bob, here comes Hizbullah TV. Hizbullah's claims become more suspect every single day, as Israeli forces continue to pound Hizbullah's infrastructure and eliminate terrorists throughout the country.

The IDF has conducted 15 other raids similar to the Baalbek raid that netted a number of Hizbullah members. The IDF claims that it is close to securing the security corridor. That remains to be seen as the rockets continue flying into Israel and the sirens keep going off up and down Israel's northern cities and towns. Israel may have gone after Baalbek because they thought that the two Israeli soldiers Hizbullah took three weeks ago may have been there.
It is believed that reservists Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev were held in bunkers below hospital before being moved along.
Israel's capture Hizbullah minions in the raids, may help track down the missing soldiers, but that wasn't the original intent of the mission according to Chief of General Staff Halutz.
"The final outcome of the operation is not yet quite clear because we collected materials that must be analyzed," the general said on Wednesday afternoon.

"I have no doubt that more advantages from this operation will be discovered," the general continued, "this was part of the larger-scale operation, and we will continue such actions if necessary. Capturing people was not our initial objective."
This isn't surprising. An analysis of UNIFIL finds that its performance has been disasterous. The Lebanese claim that the destruction of Lebanese infrastructure is more than $2 billion. I'd bill Hizbullah, Damascus, and Tehran for that, but of course they blame Israel for the mess. Never mind that Hizbullah provoked the attack from Lebanese soil, and the Lebanese didn't have a problem with Hizbullah carving out South Lebanon for its own feifdom, despite UN SCR 1559 demanding disarmament of militias and ensuring Lebanon's territorial integrity. The Lebanese are trying to have their cake and eat it too.

UPDATE:
The IDF initial report indicates that they believed the building hit in Qana was unoccupied by civilians and Hizbullah was operating out of the building. Had the Israelis known that civilians were in the building, they would not have okayed the airstrike. Compare that with Hizbullah, who has absolutely no problem firing on Israeli civilians. Indeed, Hizbullah and its supporters around the world (including the Palestinians) cheer every single Israeli civilian casualty and death. To date, nearly 1,500 Israelis have been treated by MDA.

Israel continues to hunt down Hizbullah in South Lebanon, eliminating 10 more.

Uzi Landau writes that peace lies in Damascus, not Beirut. He's correct that peace will not end in Lebanon, but I'd posit that the conflict will end when the right messages are received in Tehran, not Damascus. Both Iran and Syria are behind the current conflict, and while eliminating Hizbullah is a key factor in stopping the threat, it will persist due to Iranian and Syrian designs for the region and Iran has a longer reach than Damascus.

UPDATE:
Hizbullah continues to use UNIFIL positions for cover. From the August 2 UNIFIL presser:
There were five incidents of firing from the Israeli side close to UN positions.

Twelve artillery shells impacted within 50 meters from a UN position in the
general area of Hula, and some debris impacted within the position. At the
request of the Lebanese authorities, this morning, UNIFIL dispatched one
armored personnel carrier (APC) to the village of Srifa to escort and assist
the Lebanese Army Engineering Contingent to clear the debris in the village.
Around 10 a.m., Hezbollah fired four rockets from close vicinity of the
location and subsequently, the IDF shelled the area, forcing a UNIFIL APC to
withdraw to a nearby UN position. It was also reported that Hezbollah fired
rockets from the vicinity of three UNIFIL positions in the area of Tibnin, At
Tiri, and Alma Ash Shab. UNIFIL strongly protested all these incidents to the
Israeli and Lebanese authorities respectively.
Why was Israel firing close to UN positions? Hizbullah was using them as cover for their attacks against Israel. This is the same thing (August 1 presser shows Hizbullah again using those positions near three UNIFIL posts) that has been going on for three weeks, and UNIFIL can complain til the cows come home to the Lebanese to make the situation stop, but until Hizbullah is disarmed, Israel will continue to hunt down and eliminate Hizbullah, even if it means firing near UNIFIL positions.

UPDATE:
CNN has a most fascinating piece of video. It shows Israeli commandos going through the hospital in Baalbek. Weapons caches appear to be the medical equipment du jour for Hizbullah.
The Israeli military video of the Baalbeck raid shows Israeli airstrikes on vehicles, which the Israeli military said were carrying Hezbollah supplies to the hospital.

"The IDF and the air force demonstrated their long arm, their ability to reach everywhere that Hezbollah sees fit to situate itself, even if it chooses a hospital as its headquarters," said Israeli Brig. Gen. Yohanan Loker.

Other images showed Israeli commandos rifling through file cabinets in an office inside the hospital, where the IDF said it found ammunition and weapons.
You'd think that Hizbullah has a fascination with guns and ammo for them to store it in a hospital. Just to be absolutely clear. Hizbullah is using hospitals as cover for their ammo dumps and terror operations.

UPDATE:
One Israel soldier is confirmed killed in fighting in Lebanon. Hizbullah has changed tactics, firing its rockets at night, probably to keep from being spotted by Israeli forces who simply follow back the rocket contrails to their source. Action and reaction. Israel also attacked Hizbullah's compound in Beirut.

And Israel looks like it might not stop at the Litani River. They're warning Lebanese north of the river to get out of Dodge. That's a sure sign that Israel isn't messing around.

Israel hasn't let up on Hamas and Fatah in Gaza either. The operations there continue. 117 Israelis were brought to Nahariya's hospital for treatment. That's since Wednesday morning Israel time.

The Islamists are also hoping to have a confrontation on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem during Tisha B'Av, which is the date that marks the destruction of the Holy Temples in Jerusalem in the Jewish calendar. This year, the date falls on Thursday, August 3. The Islamists are complaining about potential Jewish extremists who might attack the Dome of the Rock or the al Aqsa mosque, both having been built atop Judaism's holiest site. Never mind that Muslims often rain rocks down on the Jewish parishoners at the Western Wall or that the imams at the mosques call for Israel's destruction on a regular basis.

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