Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell, Part XIX

Israeli commandos conducted operations against Hizbullah in Tyre. More than 70 targets were hit overnight.

Hizbullah continues firing rockets into Israel, but their aim isn't quite up to snuff. They fired six mortars at Israel, but instead hit Syria. Will Syria call those war crimes if they kill Syrians in the process?

The Saudis continue to play both sides in this conflict. They know that the Shi'ites in charge of Iran are their mortal enemy, and that Israel's fight against Hizbullah is their fight as well. They just can't say that. But the Islamic clerics in Saudi Arabia aren't shy about calling Hizbullah the party of the devil.

Mrs. Lawhawk pointed me to Time Magazine this week, which has a whole bunch of stories about Lebanon, Hizbullah and the current conflict. Among the stories is one on who exactly will disarm Hizbullah and specifically at the Lebanese military's inability to do so. The story predictably goes into the disparity between Lebanon's military capability and Israel's military prowess (what goes unmentioned is the fact that Israel needs the sophisticated and advance military because of the likes of Iran whose leaders have repeatedly called for Israel's destruction, much as Arab countries have done for the last 60 years), which is actually irrelevant to disarming Hizbullah before noting that the demographics of the Lebanese military makes it simply incapable of disarming Hizbullah. Indeed, the only way the Lebanese military would operate in South Lebanon is at the behest and permission of Hizbullah. That arrangement is simply not going to work. Lebanon doesn't have to build up a military to match Israel, but it has to be robust and independent enough to deal with the likes of Hizbullah, which is a far greater threat to Lebanon than Israel is. After all, the current conflict in Lebanon was brought to the Lebanese people by and on behalf of Hizbullah and the Lebanese unwillingness to deal with this issue til now.

Also in the issue is an essay on how the conflict in Lebanon will affect the situation in Iraq, as if they are two separate and distinct issues. They are not. Iran is behind much of the Shi'ite violence in Iraq, and its Hizbullah forces are funded and equipped by the Iranians. The marches and demonstrations in Iraq are due to Iranian agitation. Time's writers also don't think Syria has much of a stomach for a fight with Israel. Well, if that's the case, then Syria should be doing all it can to shut its border with Lebanon or else worry about the fight spilling over into Syrian territory. Syria appears to be walking a tightrope, playing nice to the mullahs in Iran, but knowing that they can't have their fingerprints on the violence as the Lebanese already distrust and hate Syria for its decades long occupation and influence over Lebanon.

The following link is not for the faint of heart. It's a memorial to the more than 100 Israeli children murdered by Islamic terrorists. These children were not killed by accident. They were purposefully targeted by the Islamic terrorists. The terrorists were honored by their fellow terrorists and sympathizers. There were no apologies.

Iran says that it's supplied long range missiles to Hizbullah to protect Lebanon. No one is quite sure just how long range that is. Debka thinks that the range might be sufficient to hit Dimona, which is where Israel's nuclear research facilities are located.

Meanwhile, the Israelis attacked a suspected rocket launcher involved in the Hadera rocket attack. They're also continuing their ongoing search for launcher sites. The IDF soldiers in Lebanon are fighting a hard enemy, one that appears to be well trained and well equipped. Iran's fingerprints are all over Hizbullah, and it would be foolish to think otherwise.

And yet, there's something puzzling. Hizbullah's losing all of these crack troops because they didn't predict Israel's response. That means that Iran is losing its crack proxy military. That would explain why Iran is so quick to call for ceasefires, and then echoed by Hizbullah's Nasrallah. Of course, Nasrallah decides to double down by calling for the second phase, by attacking targets beyond Haifa as though their first phase has gone so well for them. But don't take my word for it. That's the assessment of the editor in chief of the Arab Times.

The French and United States are apparently close to an agreement on a ceasefire. That would be a neat trick considering that it will rely on Hizbullah cooperating, when there's absolutely no reason to believe anything coming from Hizbullahland. The Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi believes that there will be no solution to the situation without involving Iran. Well, he's identified Iran as the key. That's a start. Problem is that he thinks getting Iran to sign a piece of paper will secure the peace. Too bad Prodi is far down on the list of those seeking to be the next Neville Chamberlain. The French are well ahead of Prodi as are Javier Solana and the UN.

And then there's Hugo Chavez, who like Iran, is engaging in quite a bit of projection. He's busy calling Israel's actions reminiscent of Nazi Germany, and yet doesn't bother to realize that stealing elections, nationalizing industries, making alliances with other fascist countries, and building up the military are precisely the steps Germany took in the 1930s. Chavez has gotten all warm and cozy with the likes of Ahmadinejad and Castro (who's condition is still unknown).

Hamas says that Gilad Shalit's release is not imminent despite Egypt's ongoing mediation to try and reach a deal/ceasefire.

Bloggers to check in with for daily updates are Blue Crab Boulevard, Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, Hot Air, Jameel at the Muqata, Greetings from the French Hill, R'Lazer, and Live from an Israeli Bunker. Check back with them regularly for updates.

UPDATE
The Israelis continue their commando operation in Tyre.

The French and US have come up with language that they think will bring about a ceasefire. Good luck with that, especially since it relies on Hizbullah to stop attacking, and doesn't prevent Israel from continuing operations to attack Hizbullah positions that fire into Israel. This language will go to the full Security Council next week.

The United States and France agreed Saturday on a draft U.N. Security Council resolution that calls for a "full cessation" of fighting between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas, but would allow Israel to defend itself if attacked.

The draft, obtained by The Associated Press, "calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations."

That language would be a major victory for Israel, which has insisted it must have the right to respond if Hezbollah launches missiles against it. France and many other nations had demanded an immediate halt to violence without conditions as a way to push the region back toward stability.

Israeli Cabinet minister Isaac Herzog praised the draft as an "important development" but said the military would keep up its strikes in coming days.

U.S. Ambassador John Bolton and French President Jacques Chirac's office confirmed that agreement had been reached. The full 15-nation Security Council was to meet later Saturday to discuss the resolution, and it was likely to be adopted in the next couple of days, Bolton said.

"We're prepared to continue to work tomorrow in order to make progress on the adoption of the resolution but we have reached agreement and we're now ready to proceed," Bolton said. "We're prepared to move as quickly as other members of the council want to move."

The resolution asks that Israel and Lebanon agree to a set of principles to achieve a long-term peace. One crucial element is an arms embargo that would block any entity except the Lebanese government from buying weapons.

That is presumably meant to block the sale of arms to Hezbollah from Iran and Syria, believed to be the militia's main suppliers.

Other principles spelled out in the resolution include the disarmament of Hezbollah; the creation of a buffer zone from the U.N.-demarcated border between Israel and Lebanon north to the Litani River; and the delineation of Lebanon's borders, especially in the disputed Chebaa Farms area.

The resolution would call for the current U.N. force in Lebanon, known by its acronym UNIFIL, to monitor the cessation in fighting. Once Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the series of principles, the Security Council would then authorize a new peacekeeping force for the region.

President Bush seems pleased with the language, and the key is that Israel can continue its operations against Hizbullah until the UN Security Council approves the language, and even then, Israel can conduct operations to go after Hizbullah in defense of attacks.

A huge question will be how anyone can trust the UN to act as peacekeepers, patrol and police the buffer between the Litani and the border, and in the Sheba Farms area.

Israel's response will be made within days or weeks, which tells you all you need to know about Israel's concern for the UN. They know that the UN can't do much of anything and that Hizbullah continues to fire rockets and attack Israel.

Nasrallah is now calling for a ceasefire, which should tell you plenty about how Israel has damaged his organization's ability to hit Israel and conduct operations.

Jimmy Carter speaks, but why does anyone pay attention to him? His legacy in the Middle East is muddled at best, and while he gets credit for the Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt, his failure to deal with Iran has brought us to this point today where Islamists in Iran now threaten the world and Israel with distruction unless the Islamists get their way.

Meanwhile, three more Israelis were killed by Hizbullah rockets. It was three women, a mother and her two daughters. At least some good will come from the rocket attacks that killed two brothers earlier this week. Israeli doctors will use organs donated from the two brothers to help four other people.

In a complete surprise, Human Rights Watch has actually declared that Hizbullah is committing war crimes by firing rockets into Israeli civilian areas. Gee, it took the organization more than three weeks to come up with that self-evident and easily observed conclusion now? Considering that HRW has been busy churning out pressers denouncing Israel's actions, it's amazing that they managed to produce this document. Israel, meanwhile, has issued a terror alert for Central Israel.

UPDATE:
It didn't take long. Lebanon has rejected the so-called draft document laboriously produced by the US and France. Back to the drawing board folks. As I noted here, it's about the process. And as this document was written by diplomats, nothing has to actually make sense or reflect the situation on the ground. Diplomats love to write things and think that everything is about process. With a word, the Lebanese have undone what the US and French thought that would help with a ceasefire, which would help the country. All the while, Hizbullah and Israel are slugging it out all over Lebanon and Hizbullah continues firing rockets into Israel. Some reports indicate that Hizbullah is equipped like the Syrian or Iranian military. There's a good reason for that. Syria and Iran were, and are, equipping Hizbullah.

Ed Morrissey comments on the US/French proposal. He thinks it's a sensible plan. I see a fatal flaw, in that it relies upon the UNIFIL to verify that Lebanon is attending to matters that the UN has supposed to be dealing with since UN SCR 1559 was enacted (no militias and territorial integrity). This is the same body that is supposed to verify the demilitarization of the area South of the Litani River? I wouldn't hold my breath. And why does the UN have to sanction any nation's right to defend itself? That's completely self evident, but as others have noted, all the usual rules do not apply to Israel or the US, neither of whom can defend themselves unless their enemies provide the rules of engagement. Others commenting on the diplomatic maneuverings: Bryan Preston at Hot Air, Flopping Aces, Sister Toldjah, Dan Riehl, Rick Moran has a handy dandy scorecard (and further notes that the resolutions will still take a few weeks to implement), Macranger, Outside the Beltway, and Blue Crab Boulevard. As an aside, isn't it the slightest bit curious how Ambassador Bolton has managed to get France to agree to the US view on letting Israel defeat Hizbullah and prevent a return to the status quo ante? Wasn't one of the Left's talking points supposed to be that Bolton was unwilling, unable, or incapable of doing such things. Guess that's another talking point gone by the wayside.

The Palestinians claim that the speaker of their parliment was seized by Israel. Israel had no immediate comment.

Hizbullah continues to deny the ICRC access to the two Israeli soldiers they're holding. That's a violation of international law. Hamas rejected a similar call.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Rains, Summer, cavaliers, wrath, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, hezbollah, lebanon, syria.