Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell, Part XII

The French are busy complaining that Israel isn't going to take up a 72 hour ceasefire proposed by the diplomats. Why should they? Any ceasefire will only enable Hizbullah time to redeploy and reequip. Right now, Hizbullah is fighting for its life, despite the claims of Walid Jumblatt who says Hizbullah has won this war. Why has Hizbullah won, may you ask? Because they've lasted longer than entire countries did in the Six Day War? Appearances and perceptions count more than facts to these folks. That's why half measures and limited ground campaigns are not going to work. If Israel is going to improve its security position, they must do more than simply eliminate terrorists along its border. It must crush them entirely.

The UN is trying to line up potential contributors to an international peacekeeping force. The EU is confident that the UN will push such a force. No problems there other than the fact that there are so few countries who would send forces, and then there's the question of the mandate and force capability to actually disarm Hizbullah (not that they'd willingly part with their weapons).

And yet, there's word that Hizbullah might agree to a ceasefire that includes the disarming of militias. I'm wary and dubious of such a move, although that shows just how badly Hizbullah has been hit. If they were in a good position strategically and tactically, they would reject such a move out of hand. Another possibility is that they have no intention of doing so, and are simply posturing to put additional international pressure on the Israelis to force them into a ceasefire that Hizbullah has no intention of complying with.

The Israelis have determined that the rockets fired into Afula were of Syrian origin, not Iranian.

Meanwhile, Hizbullah continues to fire rocket barrages into Israel. The battle at Bint Jbeil continues, with Israel exacting heavy casualties on Hizbullah, but taking casualties all the same. The Israelis are also maintaining the pressure on Hamas in Gaza, with continued attacks against weapons caches and other targets. Despite claims that Shalit would be released soon, there's no movement on that front.

Bloggers to check in with for daily updates are Blue Crab Boulevard, Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, Hot Air, Jameel at the Muqata, Greetings from the French Hill, R'Lazer, and Live from an Israeli Bunker. Check back with them regularly for updates.

UPDATE:
Salon's Mitch Prothero would like you to believe that Hizbullah hiding among civilian populations is a myth ("almost always false" - note the modifier to provide sufficient wiggle room), and that the terrorist group is fearful of civilian populations. What planet is Prothero living on? Can you tell a Hizbullah terrorist apart from a civilian? No one can, unless the terrorists dying are holding guns, bombs or RPGs in their hands. And that's what the UN itself said. As did locals who have seen the terrorists operating between their homes. And there are repeated reports showing that Hizbullah is operating in and among civilian populations using them as human shields. Mark at USS Neverdock takes Prothero to task. So does Econopundit and Hot Air.

Meanwhile, UN officials are worried that the Israelis might flatten much of Southern Lebanon to root out Hizbullah. Well, that's what you get when the UN fails to do its job and disarm all militias in Lebanon under UN SCR 1559 to maintain and enforce Lebanon's territorial integrity. South Lebanon became Hizbullahland, where they were free to develop bunkers, weapons caches, and prepare for a conflict with Israel at the time and place of their choosing.

At UN peacekeeping headquarters in Naqaura, barely a stone's throw from Israel, political affairs officer Ryszard Morczynski said Tyre would become a target of intense Israeli attacks because Hizbullah was firing rockets from the city's suburbs into Haifa.

"I have no doubt that Israel will flatten Tyre if civilian casualties continue in Haifa. Tyre will be taken off neighborhood by neighborhood," Morczynski warned. "I think Israel is contemplating flattening villages, flattening every single house to deny Hizbullah any advantage of urban fighting in the streets."

He estimated that 80 percent of the roughly half-million people who live in Southern Lebanon, demarcated by the Litani River, have already fled the embattled area. He also said he feared the civilian death toll in Lebanon was more than 600, well more than the official count of 400-plus.

"Hizbullah are still strong" 17 days into the conflict, peacekeeping chief, Maj. Gen. Alain Pellegrini told The Associated Press.

Again, we see so much concern for those living in Southern Lebanon, and not so much concern for the hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have fled Northern Israel or the million living in bunkers and bomb shelters because of the incessant rocket attacks. The UN's myopia is extreme and dangerous to Israel's existence. The UN is also estimating a death toll based on, well not much. Pulling figures out of thin air.

Paul at Powerline takes apart the so-called ceasefire deal that Hizbullah would supposedly agree to.

The key elements are: (1) an immediate cease fire, (2) the release of Lebanese and Israeli prisoners, (3) Israeli withdrawal behind the border, (4) resolution of the status of Chebaa Farms, a small piece of land held by Israel and claimed by Lebanon, in favor of Lebanon, and (5) the "disarming" Hezbollah, and (6) the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south, with the strengthening and increasing of the small, lightly armed U.N. peacekeeping force currently there.

A cease fire under these terms would represent a clear victory for Hezbollah. They began the hostilities for the stated purpose of obtaining the release of its prisoners. The deal would not only enable them to accomplish this, but Israel would lose territory (Chebaa Farms) in the process.

There's no way Israel would agree to these terms, and Hizbullah knows it - so this is nothing more than an expansion on the original terms they set forth. In fact, these terms are more extravagent than the original terms.

Heck, even Andrew Sullivan sees this conflict for what it is - war imposed on Israel by Iran and Syria.

This is a war Iran started. I fear it has just begun. Its ultimate end is simple: the eradication of Israel and the murder of every Jew in the Middle East. Hezbollah and Ahmadinejad are very, very clear about this. And they are playing the p.r. game brilliantly. The president's press conference with Blair today struck me as revealing - and not in a good way. Bush is right on the basic issue. He grasps the nature of the enemy. But he is so out of his depth - rhetorically, strategically, politically, intellectually - that it is hard to have much confidence in his leadership.

After that, Sullivan veers off into claiming that Bush is out of his league and incapable of leading us through this conflict. Never mind that there's no one on the other side of the aisle capable of leading since they're all invariably waffling or otherwise seeking out the partisan political advantage of any move instead of doing the right thing (aka pandering instead of leading). The Iranians have indeed started this war against the West, and for Sullivan to claim that Bush isn't able to lead, one has to wonder whether all the complaints against the Administration that turned out to be exaggerated or unfounded have kneecapped the Administration's ability to deal with this threat more aggressively. After all, the Administration was correct on the WMD issue, correct about those 16 words, and terrorists were operating in Iraq all along with Saddam's consent and approval. Those three memes have been pushed by the Left and anyone in the Democrat party who believed that the Administration did the right thing is being forced out in an ideological purge (e.g. Joe Lieberman).

So, Sullivan has identified the problem, but provides no solution. Engagement and diplomacy are insufficient given that Iran is already at war with us. We must wage war back or else face attack after attack here and abroad.

UPDATE:
Is Abbas trying to distance himself from Nasrallah and Hizbullah. It sure seems that way.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Saturday his government has no intention of teaming up with Shi'ite Hizboullah on negotiating the release of Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners held by Israel.

Israel launched attacks in Gaza after Palestinian Hamas-linked operatives crossed from Gaza into Israel and snatched Cpl. Gilad Shalit on June 25. As that conflict raged, Hizbullah grabbed two soldiers in a July 12 cross-border raid, sparking the current violent conflict raging in the North of Israel and in Lebanon.

Hamas had raised the possibility this week of teaming up with Hizbullah to negotiate terms to release of Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners in Israel in exchange for the three IDF soldiers.

But Abbas said the situations were too different to coordinate a release.

Now why would Abbas do that at a time when other terrorist groups are and public opinion are supposedly flocking to Hizbullah's cause - like al Qaeda and Hamas example? Could it be that Abbas sees the writing on the wall he's trying to play the peacemaker, hoping that he'll come out ahead when all is said and done? Or maybe he realizes that backing Hizbullah is a losing cause and doesn't want to get sucked into a prolonged conflict where Fatah is tremendously disadvantaged against the Israelis, despite the Israeli unwillingness to unleash the full force of its military against the terrorists, instead opting for a piecemeal approach.

The rockets keep flying towards Israel as the sirens go off. More than 40 were fired today.

Ed Morrissey thinks that the Hizbullah peace offering is legit and that the Israelis should call their bluff - especially due to the inclusion of a call to disarm the militias. I'm not so sure, as I posted above. Rick Moran is also dubious of the deal, which is anything but.

UPDATE:
Anyone else find this troubling? The UN will have an observer in the IDF control room to oversee the humanitarian aid convoys to ensure their safety. No word on whether the UN will do the same with Hizbullah. This comes as two more UN peacekeepers were wounded by Israeli airstrikes. Have no doubt that there will be yet more cries for Israel to cease and desist, all while Hizbullah continues to take advantage of positioning itself adjacent to UN positions as shields.

The Israelis are going after border crossings from Syria into Lebanon, hitting Masnaa today. Israel had been going after scattered convoys entering Lebanon from Syria, but today's attack shut down the border crossing. More of this has to be done if the Hizbullah resupply routes are to be eliminated.

The senior Islamic Jihad leader in Nablus was killed by the IDF today.

Nasrallah, meanwhile, says that Israel is a temporary country. Well, what we've got here is another not so thinly veiled threat of genocide. This is with whom the Israelis are supposed to make a deal to end the fighting?

And those who are outraged over the violence done to Lebanon have continued to remain silent over the death and destruction in Israel due to the Hizbullah rockets and ongoing terrorism. Can you say double standard? I knew you could.

Chirac recognizes the obvious: No peacekeeping force in Lebanon until ceasefire. Well, considering that Hizbullah isn't going to lay down their arms willingly (despite their so-called offer to do so), the peacekeeping force is DOA until further notice.

Here's anouther thought on peacekeeping and disarming Hizbullah. Trust but verify. I wouldn't trust Hizbullah to disarm at all. There's no reason to trust or believe them. So, whoever ends up drawing peacekeeping duties must engage in vigorous inspections to ensure that Hizbullah would indeed be keeping to its word.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Rains, Summer, cavaliers, wrath, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, hezbollah, lebanon, syria.