Will Burmese Junta Release Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi

Will the Burmese junta, which just won yet another rigged election in "convincing" fashion, release pro-Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi? Media reports seem to indicate that her release from house arrest is pending, but why would the regime release one of their most outspoken critics?

Some seem to think that this might be a way to lessen the outrage over the junta rigging yet another election:

On Friday, a day ahead of her scheduled release, government officials told the French news agency her release was a certainty, although no time was mentioned.

And Tin Oo, vice chairman of her banned National League for Democracy party, said his sources told him her release order has been signed.

Authorities increased security in Rangoon as supporters gathered near her lakeside home and at the party's headquarters.

A Saturday release would be six days after Burma's first election in two decades. The military's political party already has claimed a majority of seats in both houses of parliament, in voting that Western leaders and human rights activists say was fraudulent and aimed at ensuring continued military rule with a civilian face.

Aung San Suu Kyi's release would raise immediate questions about how much freedom the military rulers will grant her. Her followers say she will not accept any conditions on release. Her lawyer says the 65-year-old Nobel Peace laureate would resume political activities.

Her party won a landslide victory in Burma's last elections, held in 1990, but military rulers refused to let it take power. Now, some analysts think the military might view Aung San Suu Kyi's release as a way to soften overseas criticism of last Sunday's election.

Given that she's been held for 15 of the last 21 years by the junta, the release doesn't mean much given how tight a leash the junta will have on her appearances and ability to travel. Expect that the slightest amount of criticism or failure to follow rules will land her back under house arrest.

The junta has repeatedly failed to adhere to the will of the Burmese people and the latest rigged elections are no exception. Nor is Kyi the only political prisoner being held by the junta. She's only the most visible - largely as a result of being a Nobel laureate.

Burmese Military Trying Nobel Prize Winner

It's what juntas do. The Burmese junta has put Aung San Suu Kyi on trial for violating the terms of her house arrest.

Ms Suu Kyi has already spent 13 of the past 19 years in jail or detained in her home, and faces a further three to five years' imprisonment if found guilty of these latest charges.

Suu Kyi supporters gather near prison

It is unclear how long the trial will take, but estimates range from a few days to several weeks, as the government is expected to summon 22 witnesses to support its claim.

Two of Ms Suu Kyi's assistants are on trial with her, and Mr Yettaw is also being tried.

Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party won landslide elections rejected by the military in 1990, and she was awarded the Nobel peace prize soon after.

Wire barricades

Security is tight around Insein prison, says a BBC reporter in Rangoon - whose name is being withheld for his safety, because all foreign journalists are barred from Burma.

Dozens of supporters, including prominent members of her National League for Democracy party, gathered near the jail in quiet protest.

Foreign journalists aren't allowed in the country, and those that are reporting are putting their own lives in danger.

No Laughing Matter

The odious Burmese junta has handed down a 45 year sentence for a comedian who went to help victims of the devastating cyclone that came ashore earlier this year. Her punishment was because she spoke out against the junta and their insanely slow relief efforts.

Comedian and activist Zarganar, whose birth name is Maung Thura, was among at least 100 people to receive sentences of two to 65 years since early November. Many of the trials were held in closed sessions, sometimes without defense lawyers or family present.

The military government's wave of harsh sentences has been condemned worldwide by Western governments and human rights groups. They contend that the sentences make a mockery of the ruling junta's professed plan to restore democracy with a 2010 election.

The government holds more than 2,100 political prisoners, up sharply from nearly 1,200 in June 2007 — before last year's pro-democracy demonstrations, according to international human rights groups.

No one knows precisely how many died in the natural disaster, let alone how many died as a result of the junta's bogus relief efforts that included preventing and limiting foreign assistance as much as possible.

Junta Complains About Media Coverage As It Continues Denying Burmese Aid

All while the junta continues complaining about how the media is portraying the junta's actions as nothing less than the callous disregard for human life that it is, the US military is still awaiting permission to provide helicopter relief flights to remote areas of the country.

The U.S. military, meanwhile, said it has received no response to an offer of 22 helicopters that could ferry relief to most survivors within three days.

Along with its stepped up rhetoric, Myanmar's government appeared to be clamping down on criticism at home. A popular comedian was detained after returning from a trip to help disaster survivors and saying that government aid was not reaching some victims.

In addition, there were unconfirmed reports Friday in Yangon that at least a dozen people involved in filming cyclone victims in the Irrawaddy delta had been arrested.

The state-run New Light of Myanmar, considered a mouthpiece for the junta, accused "self-seekers and unscrupulous elements" of working in collusion with foreigners to shoot video films featuring made-up stories in the storm-ravaged areas in the delta.

"Those foreign news agencies are issuing such groundless news stories with the intention of tarnishing the image of Myanmar and misleading the international community into believing that cyclone victims do not receive any assistance," the report said.

The military regime has been criticized by international agencies for holding up shipments of food, water and temporary shelter supplies to some 1 million desperate survivors of Cyclone Nargis, which devastated the country more than a month ago. The cyclone, which struck May 2-3, killed 78,000 and left an additional 56,000 missing, the government said.

U.S. Navy ships laden with helicopters and emergency supplies sailed away from the coast of Myanmar on Thursday after being ignored by the junta for three weeks, but the American offer to help still stands, said Lt. Gen. John Goodman, commander of Marine Forces Pacific and head of the U.S. relief operation for Myanmar.

The US Navy could provide more airlift capability in faster time than any other group available to the junta, and has ignored it for more than three weeks. How many thousands have died and needlessly suffered because the junta refuses assistance from the US.

UN Finally Cajoles Burmese Junta Into Allowing All Aid Workers Access

Chalk one up for the UN's Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon. He managed to convince the Burmese junta to finally allow foreign aid workers access to his shattered country to provide humanitarian aid to the millions of people desperately in need.

It's been more than two weeks since Hurricane Nargis slammed into his country, and more than 120,000 people were killed. The junta's refusal to allow foreign aid workers has meant more people needlessly died for lack of food, water, and sanitary conditions.

Of note, the junta was specifically worried that the US might try to overthrow the junta through its humanitarian efforts conducted by the US Navy and other military assets.

International aid groups have criticized Myanmar for letting comparatively few relief workers into the country despite the severity of the storm, which the U.N. says killed more than 130,000 and left more than 2 million homeless.

Ban said the general made the statement "in front of many senior generals," convincing him that he would keep his word. iReport.com: Send photos, videos of relief effort

Details of the decision were not immediately clear, though a government official familiar with the decision said Myanmar will not allow foreign boats or helicopters into the country.

Ban said Myanmar officials agreed to allow the Yangon airport to be used as a logistical hub for aid distribution.

Word that relief workers may finally gain access to the storm-ravaged population swirled through Bangkok, Thailand, where a small army of aid workers is waiting for permission to enter Myanmar.

"It's extremely welcome news," said Melissa Winkler, spokeswoman for the International Rescue Committee.

As a result of Myanmar's delay in opening up to aid workers, however, many storm survivors have been drinking contaminated water, Winkler told CNN.

The IRC worries that too few health professionals are in Myanmar to handle a disaster of this magnitude, raising fears about the outbreak of disease, particularly as a result of the lack of access to clean drinking water.

When an IRC team visited two remote communities a few days ago and asked people what they needed most, they requested oral rehydration kits, a surprising response that provides evidence of disease, Winkler said.

NYT Demands Invasion of Burma To Provide Humanitarian Aid

They're calling it an airdrop of humanitarian aid by French and US helicopters and aircraft stationed offshore, but have no doubt that this is an invasion under international law.

It's just an invasion of the kind that the New York Times can get behind.

Never mind that the NYT opposed the war in Iraq despite the human rights component of toppling Saddam Hussein - the hundreds of thousands murdered by the regime, to say nothing of the ethnic cleansing and ecological disasters designed to flush the Marsh Arabs down the memory hole.

It is an invasion the Times editorial board can get behind because the Bush Administration has thus far chosen not to do so, instead sticking to international law and letting a multilateral approach try to cajole the junta into accepting US aid without the kinds of conditions that make it impossible for aid to get where it's needed most.

The junta would rather watch hundreds of thousands die than let the US be the one to provide that aid.

Burma’s state-controlled media said that U.S. helicopters or naval ships were not welcome to join the relief effort.

The New Light of Myanmar newspaper said accepting military assistance “comes with strings attached” that are “not acceptable to the people of Burma.”

The report cited fears of an American invasion aimed at grabbing the country’s oil reserves.

The US has shown itself uninterested in toppling the regime in Burma, despite its clear and odious violations of the Burmese people. One can only hope that the people in Burma realize that the junta is purposefully withholding assistance and rise up and overthrow the junta before it is too late.

Burmese Junta Continues Killing Its Own Citizens

Through it's glacially slow pace of assistance, hundreds of thousands are at risk of death and disease because the junta is refusing to allow the kind of assistance needed to help the millions of people in the affected region of Burma.

The junta will be allowing a small group of aid workers from neighboring countries access to those areas to provide assistance, and the junta will carry out a dog and pony show for UN officials to show that they're doing everything needed for the Burmese citizens. It's a complete and utter farce, and yet the UN will go along with it.

Meanwhile, the ruling junta has announced a three-day mourning period for victims of the cyclone beginning Tuesday morning, The Associated Press reported Monday.

State television announced that the national flag would be flown at half-mast, AP said.

Ban's visit will follow the short tour by U.N. humanitarian chief John Holmes.

Video broadcast on state television on Sunday showed Holmes, flanked by troops, touring a hospital and speaking with doctors and cyclone survivors.

He met with the country's rulers to try to convince them that a disaster of such magnitude cannot be handled by one nation alone, spokeswoman spokeswoman Amanda Pitt said.

The country's reclusive junta leader Than Shwe was also shown visiting a refugee camp outside Yangon, two weeks after Cyclone Nargis devastated Myanmar.

Surrounded by fellow junta members dressed in olive-green military suits, Shwe walked through streets talking with the people who lined up outside their neatly constructed tents.

The 75-year-old military ruler touched the cheeks of young survivors held by their mothers.

The junta leaders -- who traveled about 320 km (200 miles) south to Yangon from the new capital Naypyidaw -- looked on as aid workers at the camp opened plastic cases filled with relief supplies.

Burmese Death Toll Skyrockets to 78,000

The official death toll from Cyclone Nargis in Burma is now 78,000, and is likely to climb even higher.

This most recent figure is nearly double the last official tally. All the while, the junta claims that it has the situation under control.

British officials suggest that the ultimate death toll may be as high as 200,000. We may never know the full scope of the disaster in Burma because the junta simply isn't allowing access to Western humanitarian aid agencies.

Junta Claims Victory in Referendum

As the bodies were piling up all around them, the junta went ahead with a referendum that would cement its power. It comes as no surprise that the referendum passed.

State radio said 92.4% of the 22 million eligible voters approved the constitution, dismissed by critics as a sham designed to solidify the military's rule. It gave voter turnout as more than 99%.

All this comes as the junta still plays games with disbursing aid to those Burmese in need of assistance. The junta warns individuals not to hoard or trade aid, but that isn't stopping the junta itself from engaging in those tactics to punish those who it perceives as opponents and threats to its continued rule.

The Red Cross estimated that up to 128,000 people were killed in Burma. The junta admits only a fraction of that total were killed:

Myanmar's government issued a revised casualty toll Wednesday night, saying 38,491 were known dead and 27,838 were missing.

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, however, said its estimate put the number of dead between 68,833 and 127,990. The Geneva-based body said the range came from a compilation based on other estimates from 22 different organizations, including the Myanmar Red Cross Society, and on media reports.

The junta is finally allowing more foreign workers to provide assistance, but only from four countries: India, China, Bangladesh and Thailand.

The military regime in Myanmar has invited immediate neighbours India, China, Bangladesh and Thailand to send aid workers to join relief operations in the cyclone-hit country, in what UN described as "selective opening up to international staff."

The Junta was apparently still not giving visas to western aid workers congregating in Thailand.

The military regime's decision to allow the four countries to send 160 international aid workers followed an intense pressure to allow experienced personnel to help in the distribution of relief supplies.

That's an improvement, but it's a pittance in comparison to the need.

Junta Claims Things Peachy As Another Cyclone Forms Off Coast

UN meteorologists have announced that another cyclone is forming in the vicinity of Burma, which means bad news not only for the Burmese people, but for the sputtering relief efforts. The track for this storm appears to be similar to that of Cyclone Nargis, which has likely killed upwards of 100,000 in the country.

The junta claims that not only are things under control, but that there are no outbreaks of disease or starvation among the survivors.

The U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said there was a good chance "a significant tropical cyclone" would form within the next 24 hours and head across the Irrawaddy delta area.

The threat comes as Thailand's Prime Minister, Samak Sundaravej, returned from Burma last night to report that the country believes its cyclone relief operations are under control and it doesn't need foreign experts.

Mr Sundaravej said Myanmar's ruling junta gave him its "guarantee" that there were no disease outbreaks and no starvation among survivors of devastating Cyclone Nargis. Cyclone Nargis pulverised the delta on May 3, leaving at least 34,270 dead and 27,830 missing, according to the government.

Let's just say that no one other than the junta is buying that nonsense.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown wants to hold a UN summit on Burma aid. Good luck with that - not only will the UN be incapable of reaching consensus on what to do, but if they do, they still have to deal with a junta that could care less about what happens to the citizens of its country. Brown isn't alone in appealing to the UN to do something. Canadian leaders are also pushing the UN to force Burma's junta to allow greater humanitarian relief efforts to occur. That's on top of France's efforts to try and get the Security Council to act:

France last week urged the Security Council to invoke the responsibility to protect doctrine, known as R2P, to force the delivery of aid over the objections of Burma's ruling generals. Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, a man Mr. Bernier regularly refers to as a friend and with whom he recently travelled to Afghanistan, put forth the proposal.

But other countries, led by Britain, argued that the doctrine was inappropriate and was meant to prevent genocide, not for use in times of natural disasters.

France has now reportedly considered asking the council to endorse a non-binding resolution that would ask the country's rulers to allow more foreign aid workers entry. The opening of such a humanitarian corridor for aid would not be as invasive as invoking the responsibility to protect doctrine.

In Ottawa, Mr. Bernier said he has had discussions with "my Chinese counterpart, my French counterpart and also with other members of the international community to see that Canadian aid can get there, to help the people in Burma."

France's position is an interesting one - in that one could argue that the junta is engaging in genocide by failing to provide humanitarian aid to those in need. The junta figures that the cyclone is doing more to eliminate its opponents than they could have done with their usual repressive tactics.

While it would appear to most people that the junta is acting irrationally, they are most rational about the one thing that matters most to them - holding on to power at all costs.

UPDATE:
Aid groups are claiming that the junta is now stealing, diverting or otherwise preventing aid going to those who need it.

The aid directors in Myanmar declined to be quoted directly on their concerns about the stolen relief supplies for fear of angering the ruling junta and jeopardizing their operations, although Marcel Wagner, country director of the Adventist Development and Relief Agency, confirmed that aid was being diverted by the army. He said the issue would become an increasing problem, although he declined to give further details because of the sensitivity of the situation.

International aid shipments continued to arrive Wednesday, including five new air deliveries of relief supplies from the United States. Western diplomats said their representatives at the airport were making sure the cargo was unloaded efficiently and then trucked to staging areas.

The fate of the supplies after that, however, remained unknown, because the junta has barred all foreigners, including credentialed diplomats and aid workers, from accompanying any donated aid, tracking its distribution or following up on its delivery.

UPDATE:
The International Red Cross reports that the death toll in Burma could top 127,000.

UPDATE:
The UN considers more than 2.5 million people at risk due to the cyclone and resulting damage in Burma, an increase of 1 million over earlier estimates. I wouldn't be surprised if the junta wouldn't be sorry if they died - less opposition to deal with.

Different Disasters, Different Responses

With the Chengdu earthquake occurring in Central China just 10 days after Cyclone Nargis slammed into Burma, it's worth looking at the immediate response from those countries to the disaster and needs of the people.

However, before we get to analyzing the response, one needs to keep in mind that the junta in Burma had advance warning of an impending landfall of a major cyclone. They had several days to prepare for the landfall, and yet it's become all too apparent that the junta did little to warn people along the coastline to prepare for the storm, or to prepare an emergency response to deal with the aftermath.

From the moment the cyclone came ashore, the junta has done everything imaginable to control the process of disbursing aid to survivors, even to the point of seizing aid shipments so that humanitarian groups could not deliver the aid directly. Aid is slowly trickling in, but it is a pittance compared to the need. The junta wanted to control every aspect of the response, and in the process more than 1 million people will suffer.

The situation in Burma is so bad, that you've got people suggesting invasion of Burma to dislodge the junta so as to provide relief that the junta clearly is unwilling to direct to the more than 1 million people affected. It's quite likely that without further intervention, the death toll from the cyclone in Burma will be greater than 100,000, if not significantly higher. A good portion of that toll could be avoidable had the junta taken a single affirmative step to provide assistance to the people of Burma instead of doing everything imaginable to protect their own interests.

Meanwhile, on May 12, 2008, a major earthquake hit in Sichuan province, near the city of Chengdu. It was a magnitude 7.8 (some reports post it as 7.9). A wide area was devastated and reduced to rubble. Compare that to the response from the Chinese government to the Chengdu earthquake. The government had no warning that such a quake would happen - nor could they know the severity of such a quake.

That, however, did not stop the leadership from issuing notifications that the government will do everything within its power to bring assistance to those in need. The devastation in the area central to the quake is total - huge areas reduced to rubble, including schools and hospitals. At last count, more than 10,000 were reported dead, with many thousands still unaccounted for and later updates report that the toll is now 12,000. At least 18,000 others are believed to be buried in the rubble. The toll will be much more than one could bear as entire schools crumbled into piles of debris, killing hundreds of students at schools throughout the affected region:

Just east of the epicenter, 1,000 students and teachers were killed or missing at a collapsed high school in Beichuan county — a more than six-story building reduced to a pile of rubble about two yards high, according to Xinhua. The deaths were separate from another leveled school in Dujiangyan where 900 students are feared dead.

The Chinese government may have good reason to underreport the death toll so as to show that they have instituted improvements in infrastructure and building codes not to mention that their emergency response is more than adequate to handle emergencies of this scale, but they have to show the world that they're doing everything possible to bring a swift response to the region, especially with the Olympics in Beijing in three months' time. That's why you're seeing responses from Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao that call on swift and vigorous response. Jiabao is in the region to help direct the response and to reassure the local population that the central government is doing all it can.

The Chinese government called on the authorities to get roads and rail links reopened to the affected areas so that aid can begin pouring into the region in earnest. Already, 16,000+ soldiers have been dispatched to the region, and 20 military planes have been dispatched as well. Expect the number of Chinese mobilized in the response to climb swiftly. As the Chinese have more people to call upon in such incidents, they'll be able to handle an emergency of this scale better than the Burmese junta could, which makes the junta's failure to accept foreign assistance all the more troubling.

At the same time, weather is hampering the relief efforts as rain is preventing helicopters from flying into parts of the affected region. Still, the BBC reports that the Chinese military can mobilize thousands of soldiers rapidly, and that this is the fastest and most open response to a natural disaster it has seen:

The BBC's Quentin Somerville says this is probably the most significant natural disaster to hit China in recent memory, but that the Chinese army has a good record of mobilising and getting people to safety.

He also says it is one of the most open and speedy responses to an emergency he has ever seen from Chinese state media.

It's a far cry from other recent disasters in China, including the environmental disaster on the Songhua River when a factory explosion dumped tons of benzene into the water and millions were forced to find other water sources even as the Chinese government minimized the damage and disruptions.

Still, some of the Chinese coverage borders on hyperbole and reminds me of propaganda films made by the communist regimes about how they heroically saved people from floods and disasters - even as tens of millions perished. They're doing a far better job thus far than they've done in the past, and are doing a whole world better than the Burmese, but they too have a long way to go.

Things will be difficult for a long time to come for both Burma and China.

UPDATE:
One can also point to the fact that the junta would not be in a position to refuse aid at all if China leaned on the junta to allow aid to flow in to the country unconditionally. China has long had a relationship with odious regimes, including the junta in Burma, North Korea, and Sudan, sheltering them from international condemnation in the UN and thwarting efforts to open those countries up to more rigorous examination.

Meanwhile, the death toll in China continues to mount, as hope appears lost for those buried in schools. An entire generation of kids will be lost in towns across the affected region.

“There’s no hope for them,” said Lu Zhiqing, 58, as she watched uniformed rescue workers trudge through mud and rain toward the mound of bricks and concrete that had once been a school. “There’s no way anyone’s still alive in there.”

Little remained of the original structure of the school. No standing beams, no fragments of walls. The rubble lay low against the wet earth. Dozens of people gathered around in the schoolyard, clawing at the debris, kicking it, screaming at it. Soldiers kept others from entering.

A man and woman walked away from the rubble together. He sheltered her under an umbrella as she wailed, “My child is dead! Dead!”

As dawn crept across this shattered town on Tuesday, it illuminated rows and rows of apartment blocks collapsed into piles, bodies wedged among the debris, homeless families and their neighbors clustered on the roadside, shielding themselves from the downpour with plastic tarps.

I wouldn't give up complete hope, as we saw reports out of the Mexico City quake that found survivors more than a week after a strong quake collapsed buildings there. But, with each passing day, the likelihood of finding survivors diminishes greatly.

UPDATE:
The Australian reports on the willful acts taken by the junta to restrict aid and to project a sense of normalcy as millions suffer. In the process, it suggests that the death toll in Burma is as high as 80,000, if not more and millions are threatened with disease and starvation.

THE soothsayers surrounding Than Shwe, the paranoid general at the apex of Burma's monstrous military regime, are in high favour.

Their prophecies of civil unrest followed by a great natural disaster swayed his decision three years ago to move the capital north to Naypyidaw, an isolated eyrie remote from storm-blasted Rangoon and the fetid sea of devastated or obliterated townships, bloated corpses and destitute survivors that the fertile Irrawaddy Delta has become.

Naypyidaw was untouched by Cyclone Nargis. The only "damage" was to the telephone, on which Than Shwe was said to be unable to take calls all week, not even from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

A good omen in the generals' eyes, this immunity is an awful omen for the stricken Burmese. Naypyidaw's lucky escape can only reinforce the regime's determination to put self-preservation first, even if this means that up to a million more people die, needlessly, denied access to readily available international relief.

The junta is not, of its own volition, going to let in anything like the volume of aid required, at the speed required, to prevent a natural disaster turning into a monstrous - and man-made - humanitarian catastrophe.

It does not admit, perhaps not even to itself, the deadly truth. The official and implausibly precise toll has inched upwards to 28,458 dead and 33,416 missing. Yet according to the army's Irrawaddy divisional headquarters, the cyclone killed about 50,000 in or near Bogalay, where 142 villages were submerged, a further 20,000 in Labutta and at least 10,000 in Pyapon.

Four out of 400 survived in Khaing Shwe Wa village; in hundreds more villages, not a trace of life remains. Remoter areas cannot yet be reached, but in these three districts alone more than 700,000 are without shelter, food or corpse-free water; untreated wounds are turning septic, infant dysentery is rife and cholera, already reported, could rapidly become epidemic.

The generals don't want to know. At Thilawa port, rice for Bangladesh was loaded on to a container ship late last week and the regime insists that it will meet all its export commitments. The only rice released to victims, in handfuls from the port's warehouse, was rotted by flood damage. The state media, parroting the lie that Burma is returning to normal, has switched to "reporting" massive turnout in Saturday's constitutional referendum, which Than Shwe unconscionably refused to postpone.

And yet, aid will not reach those who need it because the junta deems it so. It's easier to eliminate the opposition this way, and they can claim (not justifiably so, in my opinion) that they didn't have anything to do with it either.

UPDATE:
Some Chinese are getting angry with the government, claiming that the widespread building collapses were due to shoddy construction and/or lax building codes. Popular Mechanics has more on that angle, including the fact that even if the government builds new structures to stringent building codes, grandfathered structures will be unimproved and therefore remain vulnerable to quakes. It remains to be seen the pattern and type of structures most likely to have collapsed and when they were built.

Foreign Aid Finally Trickling Into Burma As Death Toll Rises

The death toll from Cyclone Nargis in Burma is now nearly 32,000, and aid from the US and elsewhere is finally starting to trickle in to the country more than a week after the cyclone made landfall. The death toll and casualties from the cyclone has been exacerbated by the junta's unwillingness to allow aid workers enter the country to provide direct assistance. The junta sought to control every aspect of the relief efforts, to the point of refusing access and seizing aid shipments rather than allowing the aid to flow to those most in need.

Bodies are continuing to float on rivers and in flooded areas.

The first US delivered shipments of aid entered the country today, but it's a fraction of what the people need. The slow pace of relief efforts are due entirely to the junta's insatiable need to retain control. Of course, the tighter they clutch at power, the more swiftly it will slip through their hands and one can only hope that the people of Burma realize the folly of permitting the junta to remain in power.

The British government is demanding that the junta allow unfettered access for humanitarian relief efforts, but those demands continue to go unheeded.

UPDATE:
The US is looking to have three planes providing transport of aid, but the situation on the ground is dire. In one refugee camp, there are five latrines for 3,500 people (headline reads 5 for 35,000). In either case, it's woefully inadequate thanks to the junta's actions.

The Unrelenting Misery of the Burma-Myanmar Cyclone Crisis

Reports indicate that a ship carrying relief supplies sunk, taking relief supplies provided by the International Red Cross with it. Those supplies could have provided food and shelter for 1,000 people. Meanwhile, the junta continues to try and ensure that foreigners do not have any ability to provide the aid to the Burmese people directly.

A Red Cross boat carrying rice and drinking water for cyclone victims sank Sunday, while the death toll jumped to more than 28,000 and aid groups warned of a humanitarian catastrophe.

The double-decker boat that sank was carrying supplies for more than 1,000 people and was the first Red Cross shipment to the disaster area, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said. All four relief workers on board were safe, it said.

"This is a great loss for the Myanmar Red Cross and for the people who need aid so urgently," said Aung Kyaw Htut, the distribution team leader of the Myanmar Red Cross.

The sinking was the latest setback for distribution of aid following Cyclone Nargis. Though international aid has started to trickle in, almost all foreign relief workers have been barred entry into the isolated nation. The junta says it wants to hand out all donated supplies on its own.

The official death toll continues climbing, though aid groups suggest that the death toll is several magnitudes higher, and will continue climbing as the junta thwarts international assistance.

Meanwhile, Time posits the idea of saving Burma by invading and toppling the junta. Okay, so it's now okay to consider the invasion of a country for humanitarian purposes? Interesting. Very interesting.

Of course, the analogies proffered by Romesh Ratnesar are faulty as well. He suggests that the situation would be akin to the Black Hawk Down episode in Somalia, but that incident had nothing to do with humanitarian aid, and everything to do with the attempted capture of a Somali warlord. The US could conceivably begin air drops of aid from C-130s and other assets in the region without putting boots on the ground, but the possibility that the aid would be interdicted by the junta's forces on the ground is substantial.

The fact is that the junta has no interest in sending aid to those most in need. It considers much of the country in opposition to the junta's continued power, so the death of so many opposition does not weigh heavily on the junta as it might an otherwise legitimate regime.

Also, the junta continues to press forward with the rubber stamping of its power via an election. That comes even as the junta does nothing about this. That story provides the brutal truth about the situation and contains a photo of the bodies of children floating in still flooded areas of Burma.

For Burma's generals it was a weekend to celebrate as they counted the votes in a constitutional referendum no one but they will take seriously. For the 1.5 million Burmese seeking shelter in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis, without clean water or sanitation, the sham referendum was another meaningless charade.

As the generals were photographed parading through neat refugee tentsites with groomed pathways, shocking images of bloated corpses in the Irrawaddy delta have been published by the Democratic Voice of Burma, a dissident website based in Norway. They reinforce the need for urgent action to prevent outbreak of disease.

With cholera, dysentery, dengue and malaria epidemics among survivors a frightening possibility, state-run television played images of young women singing, "Let's go voting" and "Come along for voting".

The junta acknowledges at least 22,000 people died in the May 2 cyclone, with a further 37,000 missing. A US diplomat based in Rangoon claims the figure may be as high as 100,000 dead. The junta trumpeted what it claimed was a "massive turnout" in its constitutional referendum on Saturday, as thousands of tonnes of food, medical supplies and emergency relief specialists waited on tarmacs around the world for permission to enter the country.

The junta can claim all it wants. The photos speak far louder about the devastation and priorities of the Burmese people.

The Wall Street Journal suggests a novel approach - kick Burma out of the UN. Well, the symbolism would be interesting to say the least, but it would not affect the facts on the ground one iota.

And what would China do? They have ties with the junta, but have thus far been unwilling to press home the dire humanitarian need to provide relief. Would China thwart any UN measure to censure the junta, especially on the eve of the Beijing Olympics?

If this situation does anything, it once again reinforces the fact that the UN is thoroughly incapable of dealing with crises around the world because regimes that have no interest in human rights, the lives of its citizens, and democracy, have equal say with those governments that do.

The Catastrophe in Burma/Myanmar Continues

Now, the UN is suspending its humanitarian aid shipments to Burma because the junta is now seizing supplies provided.

Myanmar's junta seized U.N. aid shipments Friday meant for a multitude of hungry and homeless survivors of last week's devastating cyclone, forcing the world body to suspend further help.

The aid included 38 tons of high-energy biscuits and arrived in Myanmar on Friday on two flights from Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates.

"All of the food aid and equipment that we managed to get in has been confiscated," U.N. World Food Program spokesman Risley said.

"For the time being, we have no choice but to end further efforts to bring critical needed food aid into Myanmar at this time," he said.

At least 62,000 people are dead or missing in Myanmar, entire villages are submerged in the Irrawaddy delta and aid groups warned that the area is on the verge of a medical disaster.

The U.N. has grown increasingly critical of Myanmar's military rulers' refusal to let foreign aid workers into the country while the junta appeared overwhelmed and more than 1 million homeless people waited for food, medicine and shelter.

The junta is more concerned about its own survival than that of the citizens of Burma.

And the death toll will only continue growing as the junta continues down this path. The seizures were from aid delivered by the World Food Program, which could have fed 95,000 people. The Thai government is trying to play intermediary to get the junta to allow humanitarian relief workers access to the country so that the relief and recovery efforts can begin in earnest.

The Thai leader is acting as a go-between for Britain and the United States, as well as major aid donors which have been frustrated by the Burmese military's insistence that it alone control the distribution of relief supplies.

So far only 11 regime-approved aid fights have landed in Rangoon.

But Thailand's foreign minister says Burma's position on international aid is becoming "more flexible" and he is sure Burma's government will welcome foreign humanitarian assistance.

He made the statement after a telephone conversation with his Burmese counterpart.

The Burmese government has deported a number of foreign aid workers, including two United Nations disaster experts.

It says it wants cash and supplies, not personnel.

Cash and supplies can very quickly disappear into the ether. Personnel on the ground can make it more likely that the aid goes where it is supposed to - the victims of the cyclone.

The idea that the Pentagon might consider food drops into Burma without permission is a very sticky subject as they do not have permission to conduct such operations. While the US military has airlift capabilities in the region, conducting any air drops without permission is not something being considered at this time.

'I cannot imagine us going in without the permission of the Myanmar government,' Gates said at a Pentagon press conference with Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Asked if it would be helpful to victims for the U.S. to drop supplies, Mullen said: 'We could. Typically, though, it's sovereign airspace and you'd need their permission to fly in that airspace.'

'It's all tied to sovereignty, which we respect whether it's on the ground or in the air,' Mullen said.

Luu told a State Department press conference earlier that air drops are often inefficient, could have broader international legal implications and that the best option would be for Myanmar, which is also known as Burma, to accept the aid.

At least one commenter on this blog wondered about whether we could do airdrops into Burma along the lines of the Berlin airlift. The key difference between the situations is that Berlin was an international city divided between the Soviets and the West with established air corridors. The planes could fly through those corridors without violating sovereignty. Here, we would be flying into Burma violating the sovereignty of the country.

UPDATE:
The UN now says that relief flights will resume tomorrow, as more bad weather is expected in the region. That's despite the fact that negotiations are continuing over the tons of relief aid seized by the junta.

The Junta Still Drags Its Feet After Deadly Cyclone

While the junta continues to drag its feet to deal with the overwhelming devastation to Myanmar (Burma), a UN delegation finally arrived in the country to survey the damage.

Meanwhile, the US Navy and Marine Corps are positioning ships and equipment for providing assistance once it is requested and the junta provides its approval.

The U.S. military is stepping up preparations for a humanitarian mission to Myanmar.

Though the country's military junta has not accepted the offer of help, the U.S. Air Force is moving more airplanes to a staging area in neighboring Thailand.

And a U.S. defense official says the Navy has started sending helicopters to be closer to Myanmar as well, should approval come.

The Navy and Marine Corps happen to have ships and thousands of service members in the area this week for a multinational exercise on humanitarian missions.

An official said that because it would take the ships several days to get there, some of their helicopters are being sent ahead. When the ships are finished off loading their helicopters, they will get under way later Thursday.

The junta has refused to grant permission for US forces to provide humanitarian aid. Every day that the junta continues to drag its feet means more Burmese people die. It's really that simple. The US military has three ships in the region that were engaging in humanitarian relief exercises that could be deployed to provide immediate assistance and several heavy airlift planes positioned in Thailand to provide additional assistance and airlift of materials from around the region.

The junta has stonewalled and backtracked on outside assistance days after saying that they needed help. That's what you get when you have a corrupt and incompetent government operating during a natural disaster.

UPDATE:
One has to wonder what the junta is really afraid of. Are they afraid that they're going to lose power because foreign countries, including the US will provide aid and that they aren't going to be the ones distributing it to their cronies or withholding it from perceived opponents? Or, is it because the world will know about the corpses floating in rivers and streams because there's simply no place to bury them? Or maybe it's the rotting stench of death that overwhelms much of the coast?

The junta's clearly trying to hold onto power, and the cyclone has dealt them a blow that the opposition groups couldn't when they were protesting several months back. Fear is governing what the junta is doing, and that means that the Burmese people will continue suffering.

UPDATE:
A bird's eye view of the devastation - before and after photos of Burma. Another set of comparison photos is here.

UPDATE:
500,000 dead? That's what the Sun is reporting.

THE death toll in cyclone-ravaged Burma could hit 500,000 – more than TWICE the total killed by the Boxing Day Tsunami.

Last night’s warning came as it emerged that 17 Britons, including ex-pats and backpackers, were still missing.

Sources said 200,000 people were already dead or dying.

But the figure could rise to HALF A MILLION through disease and hunger if the nation’s hardline army rulers continue to block aid for the devastated lowlands of the Irrawaddy Delta.

I'm not sure how much to believe that figure, but it is plausible, and could explain why the junta isn't quite willing to let in foreign countries to see the devastation. It would expose the utter failure of the regime.

Rangoon is a complete wreck. The UN says that 1.5 million Burmese were affected by the storm, which makes the half a million dead seem out of proportion, but then again, villages were simply wiped away by storm surge, so anything is possible. The junta hasn't updated its figures today, but holds to a figure of 22,980 dead with 42,119 missing as of Tuesday.

Myanmar-Burma Cyclone Death Toll Climbs Past 60,000 100,000

It's a far cry from the 351 acknowledged by the junta a day after the cyclone came ashore on Saturday as the death toll soared past 60,000. Thousands remain unaccounted for and the death toll will continue climbing, not only directly from the storm, but from the failure to provide adequate food, shelter, and medical care to the survivors.

The number of dead and missing in the Burma cyclone soared past 60,000 Tuesday amid signs the toll will rise even higher, as much of the disaster zone remained flooded by seawater, threatened by disease and out of reach of an international relief operation that is taking shape.

President Bush offered to send U.S. Navy units to help in the operation, and sharply criticized Burma's military-run government for delays in approving visas for emergency teams. Burmese dissident groups took issue with the timing of the administration's criticism, suggesting it could complicate the relief effort.

Emergency supplies began arriving by air in wind-battered Rangoon, the largest city in Burma. But little or no aid reached the Irrawaddy Delta, a vast and low-lying rice-producing region that absorbed the storm's worst fury. Satellite photos showed catastrophic flooding of fields and villages as far inland as 35 miles.

A tidal wave that accompanied the cyclone was more deadly than the winds, Minister for Relief and Resettlement Maung Maung Swe told reporters in Rangoon. "The wave was up to 12 feet high, and it swept away and inundated half the houses in low-lying villages," he said. "They did not have anywhere to flee."

The fact is that the junta is simply overwhelmed by the disaster and they're still trying to do things the way that they've always done them - limiting access to the country and that means that aid will continue to be delayed in getting to those most in need of assistance. Still, the fact that the junta has actually asked for some international assistance is a sign that they're beginning to realize just how badly damaged their country has become.

Of course, none of this would be complete without the requisite bashing of the Bush Administration and their demands that the junta speed up their approval process to enable relief efforts, along with First Lady Laura Bush's criticism that the junta didn't provide sufficient warning to those living in low lying areas.

The junta and their mouthpieces turned around and criticized the Administration over its handling of Hurricane Katrina, despite the fact that the Administration was bound by the Posse Comitatus Act to not send in federal assistance without state approval, which Gov. Blanco was late in providing, to say nothing of the massive failures of the Louisiana state and local officials who did not evacuate their most vulnerable citizens in a timely fashion or provide emergency assistance (Ray Nagin Memorial Motor Pool anyone?).

The junta's response is merely a lame attempt to try and deflect attention from its massive failures - to place blame elsewhere than on the junta. Opposition groups have also criticized Mrs. Bush's statements, and that is somewhat understandable since they want to make sure that aid arrives swiftly, but if anything, they need to be putting even greater pressure on the junta to open up and waive their visa requirements so that aid can be delivered promptly.

UPDATE:
The death toll continues rising, and it's now believed that more than 100,000 perished in the cyclone and resulting storm surge.

"The information we are receiving indicates over 100,000 deaths," the U.S. Charge D'Affaires in Yangon, Shari Villarosa, said on a conference call.

The U.S. figure is almost five times more than the 22,000 the Myanmar government has estimated.

The U.S. estimate is based on data from an international non-governmental organization, Villarosa said without naming the group. She called the situation in Myanmar "more and more horrendous."

Villarosa also said about 95 percent of the buildings in the delta region were destroyed when Cyclone Nargis battered the area late Friday into Saturday.

Based on the same data, 70,000 people are missing in the Irrawaddy Delta, which has a population of nearly six million people, Villarosa said. The official Myanmar government figure for the missing is 41,000.

Little aid has reached the area since Nargis hit, and on Wednesday crowds of hungry survivors stormed reopened shops in the devastated Irrawaddy delta.

Myanmar Cyclone Death Toll Continues Climbing

The people of Burma-Myanmar continue to suffer horrendously as the official death toll continues climbing, and the real toll may be far higher. It appears that at least 10,000 people died in one town alone, and the toll is likely to exceed 30-40,000.

The death toll from a powerful cyclone that struck Myanmar three days ago rose to 22,500 Tuesday, with a further 41,000 people still missing, the government said, and foreign governments and aid organizations began mobilizing for a major relief operation.
Shaken by the scope of the disaster, the authorities said they would delay a vote in the worst affected areas on a new constitution that was meant to cement the military’s grip on power.

The death toll was the latest in a steadily escalating official count since Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar early Saturday, devastating much of the fertile Irrawaddy Delta and Yangon, the nation’s main city.

At a news conference in Yangon, the minister for relief and resettlement, Maung Maung Swe, said 41,000 people were still missing in the aftermath of the cyclone, which triggered a surge of water inland from the sea.

“More deaths were caused by the tidal wave than the storm itself," he said, in the first official description of the destruction. “The wave was up to 12 feet high and it swept away and inundated half the houses in low-lying villages. They did not have anywhere to flee.”

A spokesman for the United Nations World Food Program said that as many as one million people might have lost their homes and that some villages were almost totally destroyed.

Recall that on Sunday the government claimed that only 351 people died. Only yesterday did government officials admit that the death toll was several magnitudes larger - that up to 10,000 were killed.

Even that figure was low-balling, and now the government is looking to postpone a constitutional referendum, which was meant to further insulate the military junta from opposition.

The failure of the government to deal with the natural disaster is only going to feed opposition to the junta and may prove to be the spark that finally gets the Burmese people to rid themselves of the repressive and totalitarian regime.

UPDATE:
The Bush Administration is calling on the junta to allow foreign assistance as Red Cross workers are waiting for visas to be approved. With the US Navy operating in the Indian Ocean, it wouldn't be long until US Navy ships were operating offshore and assisting in relief operations should the junta allow it. Of course, the sight of those US helicopters ferrying supplies into the devastated areas would be a tremendous blow to the junta, whose insular and repressive methods have enabled them to remain in power but at the tremendous cost in Burmese lives.

UPDATE:
Reports indicate that the Indian government gave the junta two days of lead time to prepare for the landfall of the cyclone. Looks like they were just as effective as the Louisiana government and are now flailing about hoping that someone else will bail them out.

Meanwhile, Al Gore is using this tragedy to claim that it's a sign that global warming is causing the destruction. What a tool - and fool. The failure to respond to warnings did more to cause the death toll and devastation than global warming. The failure to improve the wealth and well being of the citizens did more to cause the devastation in Burma than global warming. Or that the scientists at the IPCC have had to admit that the global climate temps have been flat since 1998.

UPDATE:
Via CNN:

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said it had released $190,000 to help with the aftermath of the storm, the U.S. has pledged $3.25 million, the European Commission $3.1 million, Canada $2 million, China $1 million in aid including relief materials worth $500,000 and Thailand $100,000.

That's a paltry amount to assist in the relief and recovery efforts, but considering that the junta is busy dragging its feet, one can understand why countries are reluctant to send aid - as it may end up never being used by the junta at all.

Myanmar Cyclone Death Toll Could Top 10,000

A cyclone that hit Myanmar earlier this week caused catastrophic damage with a death toll that could top 10,000.

Myanmar's foreign minister says the death toll from the cyclone that ripped through the country could reach 10,000.

Foreign diplomats said Foreign Minister Nyan Win acknowledged the possibility of the high casualty figure today at a briefing given to them and representatives of U.N. and international aid agencies.

State radio earlier reported that the official death toll from Saturday's Cyclone Nargis had risen to 3,939 from an original count of 351.

The diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the meeting was held behind closed doors, said the foreign minister acknowledged 59 deaths in the country's largest city of Yangon.

The military junta that runs the country could find itself in its most serious and precarious situation since taking power if its emergency response doesn't assist its citizens in a timely fashion.

Nearly 3,000 are considered missing, though I fear that the numbers are far higher. The cyclone also sparked a riot at an infamous prison in the capital city of Yangon, with 36 dead:

And another 36 died in Insein Prison in a cyclone-related incident, according to Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, Burma, a Thailand-based non-governmental organization.

AAPPB said the cyclone hit Insein Prison Friday night, ripping off many of the ancient institution's zinc roofs.

About 1,000 of the prisoners congregated inside main prison hall to seek safety, and were locked inside the hall.

Seeking to keep warm, some of the prisoners reportedly started a fire, which spread and caused a panic, said AAPPB, citing reports from families of the prisoners.

Soldiers and riot police were called in to quell the situation and opened fire on the prisoners, killing 36 and wounding another 70.

'It was merciless and unnecessary actions to shoot. We would like to have an independent investigation on that matter,' said Tate Naing, a spokesman for AAPPB.

The admission of nearly 4,000 deaths so far is a far cry from earlier official tallies that put the death toll at 351. It would appear that the government is clearly out of its league here and is ill prepared to deal with such a massive scale of destruction.

Myanmar Monks Marching Again

These monks have a tremendous amount of courage considering that the junta isn't afraid to use force to maintain their grip on power.

More than 100 Buddhist monks marched peacefully Wednesday in a northern Myanmar town noted for its defiance of the country's military rulers, the first large protest since the junta violently crushed a wave anti-government demonstrations.

The monks marched for nearly an hour in the town of Pakokku, chanting a Buddhist prayer that has come to be associated with the pro-democracy cause. They did not carry signs or shout slogans, but their action was clearly in defiance of the military government, as one monk spelled out in a radio interview.

"We are continuing our protest from last month as we have not yet achieved any of the demands we asked for," the monk told the Democratic Voice of Burma, a Norway-based short-wave radio station and Web site run by dissident journalists.

"Our demands are for lower commodity prices, national reconciliation and immediate release of (pro-democracy leader) Aung San Suu Kyi and all the political prisoners," said the monk, who was not identified by name.

Myanmar Junta Releases Some Opposition Members

At least 70 people detained by the military government following protests in Myanmar — including 50 members of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's party — have been released, a party spokesman said Friday.

But hundreds of armed riot police moved into position in Yangon, a sudden show of force after several weeks of relative quiet.

The detainees were released Thursday from the infamous Insein Prison in Yangon, said Nyan Win, the National League for Democracy party spokesman, who said at least 250 members of the party were still being held.

Several weeks of calm? Are you kidding me? It's been less than two weeks since the violent and bloody crackdown washed through the streets of Yangon and throughout all of the country, where the junta's troops arrested opposition leaders and went through the Buddhist monasteries.

They've been brutally efficient in dealing with all threats to their continued power. That's what juntas do.

International pressure may have helped secure the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, and while the junta isn't about to give up power to this democratically elected leader, they did meet with her yesterday.

All this comes with diplomats heading to the country to deal with ongoing issues. Hopefully, they'll also address reports that claim that the junta is relying on child soldiers to bolster its ranks because of a high desertion rate.

Those reports suggest that the junta's grasp on power may be seriously slipping, and these latest moves are all designed to stave off their deposition from power.