Hurricane Isaac Surprises With Flooding and Storm Surge

Hurricane Isaac isn't the strongest hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast or near New Orleans, but it's creating havoc because the storm is moving so slowly. The winds aren't the problem with the storm, it's the flooding rains and accompanying storm surge while the storm is progressing at a crawl.

The storm surge is higher than models had predicted yesterday. As Jeff Masters notes:

Isaac is bringing large and dangerous storm surge to the coast from Central Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida. At 10 pm EDT, here were some of the storm surge values being recorded at NOAA tide gauges:

6.2' Waveland, MS
9.9' Shell Beach, LA
3.0' Pensacola, FL
4.4' Pascagoula, MS
3.4' Mobile, AL

The 9.9' storm surge at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne 20 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeds the 9.5' surge recorded there during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008. Research scientists running a Doppler on Wheels radar located on top of the 16' levees in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, reported at 8:30 pm EDT that a storm surge of 14' moved up the Mississippi River, and was just 2' below the levees. Waves on top of the surge were cresting over the west side of the levee. Needless to say, they were very nervous. Over the past hour, the surge has retreated some, and waves were no longer lapping over the top of the levee. This is probably due to the fact that we're headed towards low tide. A storm surge of 9.5' has moved up the Mississippi River to the Carrrollton gauge in New Orleans. This is not a concern for the levees in New Orleans, since the storm surge has now brought the river up to 2.5' above its normal water level, which was 7' low due to the 2012 U.S. drought. The highest rise of the water above ground level will occur Wednesday morning over much of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle, when the tide comes back in. It is clear now that this storm surge event will be as dangerous as that of Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008.

Plaquemines Parish is reporting that levees in the area have been overtopped by the storm surge and caused significant flooding. The levees involved aren't part of the network of levees upgraded or built to protect New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina.

The parish levees on the east bank are about 8.5 feet high, and some estimates have storm surge at 13 feet. At daylight, the National Guard is expected to launch a larger rescue effort, coming into the east bank through St. Bernard. After the wind subsides, other water and air rescue efforts likely will launch.

While federal levees in the area appear to be holding, problems in Plaquemines Parish are occurring in areas not protected by the federal system, which was revamped after Katrina.

Guy Laigast, director of the parish's emergency preparedness, says that an 18-mile stretch of the parish east bank back levees might be overtopped from Braithwaite to White Ditch and that some points might be seeing 110 miles per hour winds. There are many varying reports of wind speeds, generally ranging between 80 and 110 miles per hour.

"The devastation of my house is worse than Katrina and the flooding in Woodlawn is worse than Katrina, so those things tell me that the damage on the east bank is worse than Katrina," Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser said this morning.

So far, the New Orleans flood control systems are doing their job and protecting the city from the Mississippi River, the flooding rains, but this storm is going to take a long time before moving away from the region.

Law enforcement has been working to rescue those caught in the flood waters, but private citizens are also busy helping out their neighbors and others stranded by the flooding. One father-son team has already rescued 23 from the rising waters. Parts of the Gulf Coast could see up to 20 inches of rain with 7 to 14 inches falling over a widespread area.

The storm has left hundreds of thousands without power across the Gulf Coast,

Tropical Storm Isaac Spares Florida, But Track Takes It Towards New Orleans

The storm track was great news for Florida, but the worst of all worlds for the Gulf Coast. While much of southern Florida was drenched with soaking rains and strong winds, the damage was minimal compared to what could have been.

The storm is now over the open water of the Gulf of Mexico and that's going to allow the storm to intensify. The tracks are putting it further and further to the west.

In fact, it appears that the track is shifting towards landfall in and around New Orleans. And it would come ashore as a very strong category 1 storm (max sustained winds of 90mph. They're anticipating strenghtening as it churns into the warm open waters of the Gulf.

Guess that New Orleans will see whether the Corps and the levee boards got their acts together and made sure that the levee system around NOLA will pass the test.

Forecasters are also predicting that the storm could drop up to 15 inches of rain locally. That's a tremendous amount of rain, and while the area inland is suffering from drought conditions, that kind of rain in a short time will mean flooding is expected and that runoff will not recharge aquifers and parched lands sufficient.

As with any storms along the Gulf Coast - the trick will be trying to figure out the storm surge. The storm surge is what did in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina and much of the Gulf Coast shore communities from Biloxi to past New Orleans. This storm isn't likely to produce that kind of storm surge, but it's best to be prepared and have an action plan ready just in case local governments call for evacuations from low-lying or flood prone areas. Some localities have already called for evacuations near the Louisiana coast.

Several governors have already declared states of emergency, which allows them to better coordinate activities and emergency responses.

Tropical Storm Isaac On Path Towards Florida and Gulf Coast

An Ominous Offshore Development

This summer has been warmer than usual in the New York Metro area, though that's nothing that the rest of the country hasn't experienced. However, the ocean waters off the New York and New Jersey waters is much warmer than usual.

In fact, the temperatures are running about 10 degrees warmer than they usually are. Warmer waters during the winter moderated temperatures along the coast, but during the summer that means that the shore breeze isn't cooling things down as much.

It's also meant some spectacular fishing opportunities and balmy waters for swimming, but there's a dark side.

Winter's lowest recorded ocean surface water temperature was about 40 degrees, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The surface water temperature reached the mid-70s in June and the low 80s by July. A typical water temperature in June is in the mid-60s and in the mid-70s by July.

The surface isn't the only part of the ocean that is warmer; temperatures at the bottom of the sea also are above average in places. The boundary between colder bottom water and warmer surface water, known as a thermocline, near the New Jersey coast has seemingly blurred and weakened, according to data collected by an autonomous glider that has "flown" underwater for several weeks this summer.

"We're noticing that the thermoclines are much deeper and much weaker," said Bob Schuster, a state Department of Environmental Protection section chief who works with the glider program.

"(The warmth) is much more uniform throughout the water column."

The glider, which is about to be redeployed for another three-week mission, is a part of a joint program with the DEP, Rutgers and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to study the amount of oxygen in offshore water. However, the glider, which is a $108,000 torpedo-like device, also measures many other physical characteristics, including temperature profiles.

The warm winter also meant that the back bay waters never got very cold and warmed up quickly once the early spring arrived. Flounder have fled the bay shallows for deeper holes near inlets or have gone out into the ocean seeking cooler temperatures. Crabs began crawling out of the mud in the middle of March, weeks ahead of normal.

Bay temperatures have been in the upper 70s to low 80s in most places since early June, but in the grass flats of Barnegat Bay, the water temperature has been just below the threshold that causes heat-sensitive eel grass to die off, said Stockton College professor and sea grass researcher Jessie Jarvis.

Sampling trips so far this summer in Barnegat Bay have shown a typical seasonal decline of the grasses, but "it's too early to tell if water temperatures are resulting in a greater than normal decline," Jarvis said.

Warmer water also affects which species hang around offshore. Fish tales, whether about sharks or large game fish swimming much closer to shore than usual, abound among fishermen this summer.

Reports of large toothy sharks can be heard in bait shops, from fishing enthusiasts and even at shore bars, but Stockton College Marine Field Station manager Steve Evert said it's difficult to believe many of the stories of rarer shark species, such as bull sharks, in the area; none of the sightings has been confirmed.

The dark side? Hurricanes love warm waters. It's what they need to sustain and grow in power.

Last year, Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee hit in the New York metro area causing billions of dollars of damage in New Jersey alone. Hurricane Irene just missed a direct hit on New York City. Now, we've entered the height of hurricane season and a number of storms have already developed across the southern hurricane track into the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico, but as the season wears on, the tracks tend to run up the East Coast.

Storms generally wane in power as they head north away from the warmer waters. However, if a storm were to come up north this year, it would find waters conducive to maintaining strength. That could have dire repercussions should a storm track towards the region.

Last week, the NOAA increased its predictions for named storms in the Atlantic Basin, in part because of the warmer waters:

NOAA now expects 12 to 17 named storms and five to eight hurricanes, two or three of which are likely to be major hurricanes – categories 3, 4 or 5, with winds stronger than 111 mph. A normal hurricane season produces a dozen named storms and six hurricanes, three of which are major.

The change was made in part to reflect this year’s level of storm activity, NOAA said, as well as storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal water surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.

Connecticut's Utility Fails To Meet Own Deadline To Restore Power

Connecticut Light and Power is the poster child for all that is wrong with power utilities in the country. Not only can it not provide its basic purpose - reliable power distribution, but it can't even make its own deadlines to restore power to hundreds of thousands of people across the state.

Thousands of customers are still without power two weeks after the early season snowstorm.

CLP's parent company, Northeast Utilities, has put up $10 million to offer assistance to its customers and waived penalties and other fees from the storm period. That's cold comfort to the hundreds of thousands of customers who were without power for nearly two weeks.

Gov. Dannel Malloy empowered a panel to investigate the utility and thus far there's no good news for the utility. It cut back on tree trimming, and while the utility can claim that it has spent more on trimming in recent years, it's less than it was spending a decade ago (as adjusted for inflation). That translates into less miles of line that gets trimmed - meaning that more trees are likely to cause service disruptions.

Others are now focusing on CLP's parent company, and how the political favors and lobbying has won it the right to little oversight or responsibility when things go horribly wrong.

The State Attorney General is working with a risk management company to try and figure out what the utility did and is an expansion of similar investigations being carried out in the wake of the utility's failings during Hurricane Irene.

There are five separate investigations ongoing into CLP's actions during the aftermath from Irene and the snowstorm.

Disaster Funding Bill Stalls In the US Senate Over GOP Opposition

As you know we've been dealing with the cleanup from Hurricane Irene (affecting the coast from NC on up through Vermont) and then the follow-up deluge from the remnants from TS Lee, which hit upstate NY, PA, and parts of NJ real hard.

The feds have to get funding for FEMA straightened out, because the FEMA coffers have run low due to the high number of natural disasters and to provide coverage to affected taxpayers and residents.

So what has happened? The bill funding the FEMA response has stalled in the Senate after coming up short on the latest vote. The GOP can't be bothered to fund this, although some GOPers in districts affected by the disasters are starting to put pressure on the leadership:

Gov. Chris Christie has said the storm caused billions of dollars worth of damage in New Jersey, and has promised to fight for disaster relief, even if it meant taking on his own party.

"We need the support now here in New Jersey, and that is not a Republican or a Democratic issue," Christie said after touring flood-damaged Lincoln Park. "I don’t want to hear about the fact that offsetting budget cuts have to come first before New Jersey citizens are taken care of."

The governor could not be reached for comment tonight.

Irene, and the ensuing flooding, caused extensive damage throughout the state [NJ - ed], with more than 31,000 residents filing claims through FEMA to help pay for damage. And nearly $38 million has been disbursed so far. FEMA regional spokesman Bill McDonnell says the hardest-hit areas were Bergen and Passaic, with each topping 4,000 claims.

Democrats had hoped the $7 billion bill would replenish FEMA, which has spent almost $400 million in the past two weeks on emergency food and shelter, said Majority Leader Harry Reid, (D-Nev). FEMA has only about $300 million left in its coffers, he said.

President Obama on Friday asked Congress for $500 million to ensure the disaster fund doesn’t run out of cash before the end of the month.

Several Republicans have asked the disaster spending be offset by reductions in other areas.

"I plan to insist my fellow senators take a long, hard look at where the funding comes from," U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said today before the vote. "Will it be more borrowing on the backs of our children and grandchildren, or will it be from the coffers of our numerous nation-building programs overseas? America’s priorities should come first."

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), has said Republicans will attach a disaster-aid package to a continuing resolution, necessary to avoid a government shutdown before the end of the month.

That measure, which is likely to be brought up next week, would give the Senate another chance to vote on disaster relief, but it remains unclear if there are enough votes for passage.

Chris Smith (R-4th Dist.) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-11th Dist.) sent a letter to John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Thursday, asking him to ensure FEMA is adequately funded.

There's some borrowing that is good - like when you borrow money for a mortgage, so that you have a place to live. Other borrowing makes little sense, like when you use credit cards and don't bother to pay the minimum. The FEMA funding is the former category - it's critical and essential, rather than living beyond our means. The FEMA funding is to make sure that folks and businesses can get back up and running - that would increase tax revenues all around as the money flows back into state, local, and federal coffers.

The GOP has been itching for a fight on funding government spending and thus far, they managed to kill $250 million for the FAA because they refused to reauthorize the FAA taxes that fund its operations over the need to reform the rural air program, that costs a fraction of the $250 million lost - annually. Pennywise and pound foolish then, and they're doing the same thing now.

The cost of doing nothing, and allowing the FEMA funding to run dry will mean that residents all along the East Coast will be out of luck - and that means that small businesses will lose business, close up, and end up costing even more as unemployment rates climb higher and tax revenues drop once again.

Flooding Continues Across North Jersey

The remnants from Tropical Storm Lee are causing widespread misery across much of the same region affected by Hurricane Irene. Floodwaters, which had receded in many places, have again been creeping upwards and road closures are in effect or are expected as rains continue.

Hard hit areas like Wayne's Hoffman Grove have not seen the Irene floodwaters recede, but some places that had been able to begin cleaning up are putting efforts on hold as floods resume across the Passaic River floodplain.

State officials are closely monitoring the situation, and the US Senate appears to be in the process of approving $5 million for a home buyback program to buy homes in the flood zones, but it still requires the House to approve a similar measure. One of the issues is that it's a rather paltry sum and another is that far too many affected homeowners think that the buybacks shortchange homeowners because they're not paying what the owners think the homes are worth.

If a home continually gets flooded out, the value should plummet but owners think that the values are higher than the market would bear.

Should this buyback get approved, it would allow localities to buy and demolish homes in flood zones to create new wetlands that can help absorb flood waters.

Moreover, one has to wonder at the rationale for owners finishing out basements in flood-prone areas. It's bad enough when a basement floods, and the costs to replace HVAC and stored possessions can reach $10,000 or more, but finishing a basement is an unnecessary cost and localities should be moving to prevent such work from being done to lessen the costs to the homeowners, insurers, and taxpayers. While I completely understand the need to maximize space within a home and that building up or adding rooms can be far more costly, a basement flooding out on a periodic basis undermines the utility of that space and would be akin to keep a boat in the basement - it keeps costing.

NJ Transit Continues Failing Main/Bergen County Line Riders

If you read through the NJ Transit website, there is absolutely no mention of schedule changes or train consolidations relating to the damage to the Port Jervis line and accommodating the ridership that is being bused in from points above the damage.

There are no rider advisories.

Sep 01, 2011 09:21:25 AM
Port Jervis service will remain suspended between Port Jervis and Suffern due to flooding. Private carrier bus service provided to/from Harriman and Ramsey Rt. 17 only.
Service Advisories
Aug 31, 2011 11:14:26 AM
Update: Port Jervis Line - Substitute Bus Service between Harriman and Middletown for Trains 49 and 66 Cancelled

There are no revised schedules to refer to.

If you're hoping to hear something from the media outlets about service changes, good luck because they'll simply look at the NJ Transit website or hear from NJ Transit reps and they'll tell you that service has been restored and things are running normally.

That can't be further from the truth.

There is nothing but silence and wishful thinking that a train will come that can safely board passengers on trains that have been combined.

Every time there's a crisis relating to service on NJ Transit, the agency promises to do better, but nothing changes.

Service interruptions are regularly mismanaged and there's no communication about problems.

Today's conductors aboard train 1254 said that riders needed to contact our elected representatives to put pressure on Metro North to rebuild the damaged infrastructure.

That's laughable. They'd rather pass the blame onto Metro North, which suffered catastrophic damage to its rail line from Sloatsburg on north to Port Jervis, instead of admitting that they don't have sufficient rail cars to handle the existing traffic (they're combining trains on service that wasn't affected by the Port Jervis line).

Where are all the railcars that were taken out of service once the more than 300 railcars that were recently purchased or refurbished put into service? Why are there railcars sitting idly in Hoboken yard not attached to locomotives and used to alleviate crowding conditions?

It's all part of a pattern of incompetence by NJ Transit to accomplish its reason for existing - serving customers to get them to their destinations.

It's clearly failing NJ Transit rail commuters in North Jersey.

UPDATE:
The latest updates on the NJ Transit page do little to change my mind about the agency's handling of the situation:

Sep 01, 2011 02:00:59 PM
Busing to Beacon Station from Port Jervis and Middletown: Buses (with the exception of one round trip in the afternoon) will originate at Port Jervis Station, stop at Middletown Station, then go directly to Beacon Station on our Hudson Line for train service to Grand Central; outbound is the reverse.

Busing to/from Harriman and Ramsey Route 17: Metro-North is busing to/from Harriman Station and Ramsey/Route 17, where customers can transfer to train service. Buses follow the train schedule.

Still no mention of combined trains or other problems with service on the Bergen/Main line, which affects all customers, including those being bused in from above Suffern.

Damage Reports and Continued Flooding Shows Hurricane Irene Was Anything But Hype

As I have previously noted, Hurricane Irene and its damage path was anything but hyped by media outlets. The New York Times reports that the storm will rank among the 10 costliest disasters in US history. That's even as insurers breathed a sigh of relief that they wouldn't be on the hook for as much of the cost as they expected because there was more flooding than wind damage. Flood damage is typically picked up by the National Flood Insurance Program and isn't covered under typical homeowners policies.

Industry estimates put the cost of the storm at $7 billion to $10 billion, largely because the hurricane pummeled an unusually wide area of the East Coast. Beyond deadly flooding that caused havoc in upstate New York and Vermont, the hurricane flooded cotton and tobacco crops in North Carolina, temporarily halted shellfish harvesting in Chesapeake Bay, sapped power and kept commuters from their jobs in the New York metropolitan area and pushed tourists off Atlantic beaches in the peak of summer.

While insurers have typically covered about half of the total losses in past storms, they might end up covering less than 40 percent of the costs associated with Hurricane Irene, according to an analysis by the Kinetic Analysis Corporation. That is partly because so much damage was caused by flooding, and it is unclear how many damaged homes have flood insurance, and partly because deductibles have risen steeply in coastal areas in recent years, requiring some homeowners to cover $4,000 worth of damages or more before insurers pick up the loss.

This could make it harder for many stricken homeowners to rebuild, and could dampen any short-term boost to the construction industry that typically accompanies major storms, Jan Vermeiren, the chief executive of Kinetic Analysis, said in an interview.

“Especially now that the economy is tight, and people don’t have money sitting around, local governments are broke, and maybe people can’t even get loans from the banks,” Mr. Vermeiren said.

The governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut sought expedited disaster declarations from the federal government on Tuesday, which would pave the way for more federal aid. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York wrote President Obama that he had seen “hundreds of private homes either destroyed or with major damage and an enormous amount of public infrastructure damage.” Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey wrote the president that “immediate federal assistance is needed now to give New Jersey’s residents a helping hand at an emotionally and financially devastating time.”

Even as I write this, major flooding continues through New Jersey and upstate New York and Vermont communities are still cut off due to massive flash flood damage that washed out roads and communications.

The Passaic River flooding continues even though the river has crested at record or near record levels. They don't expect flooding to recede until the end of the week at the least. It's the same story on the Raritan River and other rivers through New Jersey. (Photos of damage, including Mountain View Road in Wayne, New Jersey, and Totawa, New Jersey).

While NJ Transit is getting service restored including on the Northeast Corridor, the Port Jervis line into NY is suspended indefinitely due to storm damage and it's affecting NJ Transit service and customer service is nonresponsive to the situation (and hasn't issued warnings to commuters to seek other routes due to lack of equipment or overcrowded trains).

Ongoing flooding is complicating efforts to restore power through the region. Crews can't get in to make repairs until the flooding recedes and/or crews can clear roads of debris so that power companies can repair the damage. That means that the power will remain out in and around the affected areas. Some people have been told not to expect a restoration of power until the weekend, and others have an even longer timeframe due to need to wait on receding floodwaters.

NYC Metro Area Continues Storm Recovery; Damage Estimates Roughly $7-10 Billion

$7-10 billion in damage from Hurricane Irene is nothing to scoff at. Neither is the rising death toll, which is above 40 people throughout the affected areas across 11 states. Some of the worst damage is in upstate New York and Vermont, where the storm dumped more than a foot of rain on areas and caused massive flash floods ripping apart everything in their paths. Entire towns were seemingly washed away. Hundreds of roads and bridges are out, including a stretch of the I287 in Boonton, New Jersey where the Rockaway River scoured away part of the roadway and it will be days before state officials can even begin repairs.

Many of the bridges between Paterson and Fair Lawn and Hawthorne are shut down due to flooding, but the bridge immediately above the Great Falls is open (and crowds have gathered to witness one of the greatest flood events in recent history).

Destruction From Widespread Flooding In New Jersey: MyFoxNY.com

Amtrak will resume service between Boston and New York later today, but service south of New York City is still down as a result of flooding in Trenton and New Brunswick.

New Jersey Transit has resumed some service, but several lines are running abbreviated service due to damage and flooding in parts of the state, including around Wayne, where some of the worst flooding in the state is located along the Passaic River.

The Willowbrook Mall and its environs are completely flooded and the storm waters reach to the mall itself, which is highly unusual and speaks to the overall flood levels.

Flooding along the Passaic is widespread and will continue through the week as the river is expected to crest sometime today but wont fall below flood stage until the end of the week.

Metro North has also resumed some service, but there is no service from Suffern New York to Port Jervis due to flooding and storm damage along its right of way.

Further upstate, the Capital District was hammered by the rains, and both the Mohawk and Hudson Rivers continue flooding, including around Troy and parts of downtown Albany:



Gov. Cuomo warns that things will get worse before they improve across the state.

TROY — It was touch and go for a while, but water from the worst flood to hit the Collar City since at least 1977 began to recede at about 6:30 p.m. Monday.//Now comes the clean up, as water flooded a number of streets and homes in Lansingburgh and South Troy and businesses in downtown thanks to the rain that dropped as part of the remnants of Tropical Storm Irene. (Troy Record)
KEENE — Tropical Storm Irene hit the town of Keene hard, causing the greatest recorded damage since the mid-19th century.//This morning, residents woke to find their fire station ripped in half, nearly a half-dozen bridges washed out, homes destroyed and every town road suffering damage primarily caused by flooding. No lives were lost, but the cost to restore public and private property is said to be in the millions. Also, the Marcy Dam bridge washed away. (ADE)
MARGARETVILLE — A day after flash floods spawned by Hurricane Irene’s heavy rains swept through communities in Delaware, Greene and Schoharie counties, residents took stock of their losses.//The storm knocked out power to tens of thousands of people across the region, including many in Otsego County. Flash floods tore through mountain towns and caused rivers to swell, destroying or damaging homes and leading to at least one death, that of an 82-year-old woman in Fleischmanns.//Although flood warnings were issued for Walton and Downsville, river flooding in those communities was described as minor and limited to flood-prone areas. River levels were expected to fall below flood stage today.//The bulk of the damage was focused on Fleischmanns, Margaretville and Roxbury. (Oneonta Daily-Star)

UPDATE:
Among some of the harder hit areas around Upstate New York and Vermont are ski area communities including Windham, New York and Rutland, Vermont. In fact, part of the Killington Ski Area is cut off due to storm damage, and part of one of the ski lodges there collapsed.

This damage will be lasting and the number of bridges and roads out will cause inconvenience to people around those states for a long time to come.

Local officials in places like Tuxedo, New York are considering calling in the Army Corps of Engineers to assemble temporary bridges until a permanent replacement for bridges can be made.

UPDATE:
It's real bad news for customers who take the Port Jervis line. Service is suspended indefinitely as the damage to the line is catastrophic in nature.

Some of the more significant issues that have been identified include:

• Three washout locations of 1,000 feet each near Sloatsburg
• A 400-foot section of track washed out to a depth of 8 feet south of Sloatsburg
• Significant damage to several railroad bridges
• Suspected significant damage to the signal system, which is exposed and under water.

Metro-North will retain an engineering firm to perform a thorough inspection of 24 miles of infrastructure to determine the full extent of necessary repairs and determine required environmental permitting. Major construction work would follow.

It will take months to rebuild the track, signal and bridge infrastructure required to reinstitute train service, although the exact duration will be determined by the investigation.

Metro-North worked with Orange County to develop an alternate service plan for the 2,300 people who use the Port Jervis Line each weekday. If the NYS Thruway is open in the morning, bus service will take customers from the Harriman Station to the Ramsey/Route 17 station to catch trains. For the return trip, customers will get off trains at Ramsey/Route 17 and board a bus for the trip back to Harriman. Buses will follow the train schedule. As road and station conditions improve in Orange County, Metro-North will seek to expand the bus options available.

Damage was not nearly as severe on the East of Hudson lines, but this will put a serious crimp on service for those along the upper reaches of the Bergen/Main Line, who would often take Port Jervis express trains from Suffern, Mahwah, or Ramsey Rt. 17, to commute to Manhattan.

Anything But Hype

I find it curious that there are people out there who are claiming that Hurricane Irene was somehow hyped and that the damage wasn't as bad as had been predicted.

Well, there's a couple of ways to approach this.

If you live in NJ, there's nothing moderate about this storm. It's a huge flooding event, and record flood levels are already occurring or likely along major rivers around the state, including the Raritan, Passaic, Ramapo, Millstone, and Saddle River/Brook. Some of those rivers wont even crest until midweek, and remain above flood stage until the end of the week.

If you live along the Atlantic Ocean in New Jersey or New York, you had to deal with major flooding, and urban areas had areas of significant flooding. If you live along the NY barrier islands, you've got a similar story, such as in Long Branch, where the ocean met the inshore bay during high tide.

And then, upstate New York saw record rainfall and major flooding, causing disruptions throughout New York along the Hudson Valley up through the Capital District.

It most certainly is a wakeup call for folks around here who haven't experienced a hurricane in more than a decade. Storm preparations did their job - reducing the amount of damage and loss of life. The very metric that that some critics claims suggests hype (the body count) is also an indicator that the warnings and preparations by emergency services did their job.

But did the storm really not live up to the hype?

The storm ended up tracking pretty much as the models predicted. They had predicted a storm that would hit the NYC metro area, and they were right on the money.

The models had predicted a significant storm surge, with a range of 3-8 feet at the Battery in Lower Manhattan. The surge did hit 4.5 feet, which wasn't the catastrophic damaging event, but still ranked as sixth highest all time.

A bullet was dodged, it could have been worse, and scientists will learn from the data collected here to adjust their models for East Coast storms to account for interactions between land and sea, coastal topography, front interactions, and future models will be improved as a result.

The one area in which the models fell short was the predicted wind speeds - and we have to be thankful for that. The storm was pretty nasty even with winds that didn't reach category 2 or 3 levels as early models had indicated. Yet, it was sufficient to take down trees all over the region and cause widespread flooding.

So, to anyone trying to claim that the models are somehow prove that this natural disaster was hyped, try again. If you're trying to claim the models disprove other models? Try again. The facts simply don't support your claims.

And the total economic damages will bear this out - it's expected to run above $7 billion for all damage along the East Coast and with particular emphasis in North Carolina, New Jersey, and New York.

Hurricane Irene Closes In On NYC Metro Area After Swamping NC With 12+ Inches of Rain

It's time to settle in and watch the weather come in to the NYC metro area. I've gone and cleared out the roof valleys, secured the grill and lawn chairs, and cleared items off the basement floor (just in case). In fact, everything is just in case of a worst case scenario.

Irene is still a mean bitch, and she's got a bite to her. The storm surge is a big concern, as is the tremendous rain she's likely to put down.








The storm is a slow moving giant, which means it's got the potential to drop flooding rains and with even moderate winds, power outages are all but likely.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011l
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN THE SUMMARY SECTION

...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

NYC Metro Area Continues Preparing For Hurricane Irene; Unprecedented Mandatory Evacuations From A Zones

If you go by headlines alone, we're talking the apocalypse, but the NWS and other actual weather forecasts are showing a somewhat more tempered approach.

Yes, we're going to get hammered with a lot of rain - most areas around here should expect 4-8 inches, with some areas seeing 12+, which will cause flooding and the usual areas are likely to flood. Some storm tracks are pushing the storm well inland - GFDL for example - which would reduce wind speeds, but increase the rain totals and flooding (that would put it in the Hurricane Floyd situation locally). Most of the others are putting the storm to hug the coast - meaning that Long Island is in the bullseye. The consensus model track has the eye of the storm essentially coming in directly over New York City - so areas to the North and East of the eye will see heaviest damage (strongest rains, winds, and storm surge). That means the Rockaways, Long Beach, Atlantic Beach, Lido Beach, down through Jones Beach and the barrier islands under the gun.

NYC has issued notifications to nursing homes and hospitals in A zones to evacuate patients and otherwise prepare for shutdown to avoid being caught with patients during the height of the storm. Residents in those A zones are also being told to seek higher ground.








NYC has canceled or postponed numerous weekend events due to Irene, including US Open tennis tournament, Yankees/Orioles game, and the Dave Matthews Band shows on Governors Island.

The City is preparing for the storm as though it could be a major catastrophe, and that's the right call; a direct hit with the strongest tidal surges and strongest winds could result in multibillion dollars worth of damage and the potential for mass casualties. Nate Silver runs the numbers on potential damage depending on the strength of the storm and its proximity to Manhattan.

It's one reason that the City is taking no chances, and putting lessons learned from the botched blizzard response to good use. They're going to make sure that transit is secure and out of flood prone areas and preparing for a systemwide shutdown once winds reach tropical storm strength (39+ mph).

BTW, would it be a bad time to point out that the NYC government website is down (probably b/c of traffic). http://www.nyc.gov/

502 Bad Gateway
The requested URL could not be retrieved

Meanwhile, the NYC MTA has gone to a stripped down page for hurricane information. That's the way to do it.

New York and New Jersey have already issued states of emergency, activating the National Guard and preparing for the worst case scenario; it also enables the states to call upon federal resources and obtain disaster declarations faster (another lesson learned from Hurricane Katrina and the Gulf Coast response).

Some Jersey Shore communities have issued mandatory evacuations, including Long Beach. Everyone is keeping an eye on already saturated ground and rivers and streams that could flood across Northern New Jersey.

UPDATE:
For the latest on Irene from a professional perspective, see Dr. Masters' blog.

UPDATE:
Apparently the City's storm preparations haven't included shoring up sandbags and the beach along the Belt Parkway at Plumb Beach. This stretch, where the Atlantic Ocean pushes towards Jamaica Bay is prone to erosion, and if the storm surge is as expected, the Belt Parkway - a major arterial highway could suffer significant damage.

Also, here's hoping that the Port Authority has stashed emergency generators and pumps to be able to keep Ground Zero dry - or at least capable of pumping out expected flood waters. The site isn't completely waterproofed, and much of the museum is below street level, increasing the chances for flooding.

UPDATE:
The NYC MTA is officially shutting down its transit system at noon on Saturday to prep for the storm. This includes buses, subways, LIRR, and Metro North. It will be sending its equipment to shelter at higher points along their respective systems, in bus yards, etc.

The transit system will take several hours to completely shut down - buses/trains will begin their final run at noon, which means that events like the Mets-Braves (possibly moved up to 1pm) should be canceled in light of lack of transit options. Other events are already canceled or rescheduled.

Airlines are already cancelling flights into the Northeast, and JetBlue has moved to cancel flights into its NYC hubs and more than 400 across the Northeast and New England.

The US Navy is moving ships out to sea to weather the storm from its ports in Norfolk, VA and New London, CT.

The Garden State Parkway will close to southbound traffic from Exit 98 to its southern terminus, beginning at 8pm tonight. Other roads are expected to be turned into outbound only routes to accommodate evacuations from shore communities to higher ground. Shore communities are also dealing with evacuations of nursing homes and similar facilities as per their evacuation plans.

UPDATE:
NY Governor Cuomo orders NYC bridges to shut down if winds exceed 60 MPH, including the George Washington and Tappan Zee bridges - Reuters. It also means that if you're on Staten Island and plan on evacuating to the mainland, you'd best be doing so today or early tomorrow at the latest.

UPDATE:
Mayor Bloomberg has ordered mandatory evacuations from A zones in NYC; those would be low-lying areas including Battery Park City in Manhattan, parts of Southern Brooklyn, Rockaway Queens, and Southern Staten Island. This is an unprecedented move by New York City's emergency officials.

UPDATE:
In light of the city's shutdown and evacuations, the NY Mets have finally decided to cancel the weekend games: The Saturday game will be part of a doubleheader on the 10th, but no makeup date has been given for the Sunday game. Saturday's tickets will give access for both games on the 10th.

UPDATE:
NJ Transit, like the MTA, is shutting down after 12pm tomorrow. Gov. Christie also announced plans to lower reservoir levels along the Passaic River ahead of the hurricane to reduce potential flooding. New York State has likewise lowered its reservoir levels along the Delaware River system.

Preparing for a Possible Hurricane Hit In the NYC Metro Area

The various models are showing that Hurricane Irene may pass close to the NYC metro area, with more than a few models putting the eye over Long Island.

That would mean that the damage path would be on the East End of Long Island, but the entire region could see heavy rains and damaging winds.

New York City and Long Island are each alerting local residents. So too is New Jersey's local communities.

New York City has a hurricane preparedness pamphlet, and they have an evacuation map based on potential for flooding due to storm surges, though I think most people will find trying to evacuate to be quite difficult and/or consider living in apartment buildings to be sufficient to protect against wind and storm surge damage.

For now, the Bahamas are trying to pick up the pieces and all eyes are on Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks before it begins its run up the East Coast.

Here's a good guide for hurricane preparedness - and stocking up on water, canned goods, batteries, radios, and candles are a good idea, as is having a go-bag in case the situation turns dire or you are required to evacuate on a moment's notice.

Also, in advance of a hurricane, it's a good idea to secure loose items in yards to prevent them from being turned into projectiles that can damage property.

UPDATE:
Gov. Chris Christie has issued a state of emergency for New Jersey and mobilized the state's National Guard to deal with potential flooding or other issues that might arise during the storm's appearance over the weekend.

Homeland Security and Preparedness Director Charlie McKenna told New Jersey residents to put gas in their cars, have cash on hand and get a hand-cranked radio, first aid kit and any necessary medicine.

He recommended getting a gallon of water per person and canned goods.

"No one should underestimate this storm at all," McKenna said.

Current forecast guidance suggests Hurricane Irene will turn northward today and tomorrow as it approaches the North Carolina coast. The National Hurricane Center said it appears a trough will form along the east coast, providing an alleyway for the cyclone to travel northward rather than curl out to sea.

Hurricane Watches were issued along the North Carolina coast this morning, and tropical storm watches extend further south along South Carolina and Georgia. At this time, it appears the greatest impacts from Irene would be felt in New Jersey overnight Saturday through about midday Sunday, according to NWS Mount Holly.

UPDATE:

Haiti Continues Struggling to Rebuild a Year After Devastating Earthquake

It's been a year since a massive earthquake devastated Haiti's capital of Port au Prince and killed approximately 300,000 people on January 12, 2010. Much of the city still lays in ruins and the Haitian people still live in squalor and temporary shelter.
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For all the talk about rebuilding better than the structures that crumbled all around Haiti, the country is still mired in the first steps of rebuilding. Rubble still has not been cleared from 95% of the areas damaged.

The international community "has not done enough to support good governance and effective leadership in Haiti," the aid group Oxfam said in a recent report. "Aid agencies continue to bypass local and national authorities in the delivery of assistance, while donors are not coordinating their actions or adequately consulting the Haitian people."

Less than 5 percent of debris has been cleared, leaving enough to fill dump trucks parked bumper to bumper halfway around the world. In the broken building where the man was found, workers hired to clear rubble by hand found two other people's remains.

Meanwhile, about a million people remain homeless and neighborhood-sized homeless camps look like permanent shantytowns on the fields and plazas of the capital. A cholera epidemic erupted outside the earthquake zone that has killed more than 3,600 people, and an electoral crisis threatens to break an increasingly fragile political stability.

The promise of a better Haiti remains just that.

"The problem is that at a certain point the international community gave the impression they could solve the problem quickly. ... I think there was an excess of optimism," said Ericq Pierre, Haiti's representative to the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington.

Progress has been slow across the board, starting with the omnipresent rubble.

The U.S.-based RAND organization said donors and the Haitian government are responsible for more not being cleared. Haitian workers are not given personal equipment while heavy lifters have been blocked by customs officials at the border, the report said. The government has also not designated sufficient dumping space.

"Unless rubble is cleared expeditiously, hundreds of thousands of Haitians will still be in tent camps during the 2011 hurricane season" - which runs from June through November, the report said.

It does not help that the fees collected by customs officials - such as those blocking the large rubble-removing equipment - are one of the few bright spots in a Haitian economy that was already the worst in the hemisphere before contracting by 7 percent over 2010, according to the World Bank.

The political situation isn't much better, and that's hampering the reconstruction efforts as well.

Haitians deserve better than this from their government and from themselves. They also deserve better from the international community that pledged to help but which has moved on to the next international crisis and put Haiti in its rear view mirror.

The country will face yet another hurricane season with millions exposed to potential calamity without proper shelter.

UPDATE:
The NY Times has a series of before/during/after photos showing how Haiti looks compared to what happened before and after the quake hit. It's staggering to see just how little reconstruction has taken place and how much of the city of Port au Prince is filled with temporary structures that have taken on the air of permanence.

A Downgraded Category 3 Hurricane Earl Still Threatens Portions of East Coast

Hurricane Earl was downgraded to a category 3 storm, but that is still more than dangerous enough to cause considerable damage. The storm could still regain some strength over open water before glancing off the North Carolina coast.



The models are now pushing the storm further to the East, meaning that the chances for a hit on the East Coast are diminishing somewhat.

Hurricane Earl Projected To Take Run Along the East Coast

The key to whether Hurricane Earl makes landfall somewhere along the East Coast is a low pressure front that is moving from the Ohio River Valley. If it slows, it gives the hurricane the opportunity to inch closer to the coast and potentially bring damaging winds and rain to parts of the East Coast.

Thus far, Puerto Rico got a glancing blow, but St. Marteen and Antigua saw downed trees some damage to buildings and facilities. The islands have no phone service as

For the latest updates, Reuters has a hurricane tracker. According to the tracker, the storm is expected to retain category 2 strength even as it reaches the latitude off New York, which means that the storm has the potential to do some serious damage if the track takes it closer to the coast.

The National Hurricane Center is now giving 2-hour updates because of its expected track close to the coast.

UPDATE:

The storm models are pretty much in agreement that the storm will skirt the East Coast, but are not indicating a track taking it over New York City. It may well stay offshore, but vigilance is required, particularly since the storm could change track to the East. The storm track at this points to staying offshore so it doesn't have the hallmarks of the devastating Long Island Express storm of 1938 or even Hurricane Gloria.

An Active Hurricane Season Predicted

Hurricane season starts June 1. The prediction is for 3-7 major hurricanes hitting the US, out of a total of 8-14 hurricanes expected to form from 14-23 tropical systems.

The numbers are based on a weakening El Nino that kept things quiet last year as no hurricanes hit the US and only one hurricane made landfall, and that was as a Category 1 storm in Nicaragua in November 2009.

The actual report itself notes an 85% chance for an average to above average season.

NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

This outlook reflects an expected set of conditions that is very conducive to increased Atlantic hurricane activity. This expectation is based on the prediction of three climate factors, all of which are conducive historically to increased tropical cyclone activity. These climate factors are: 1) the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high-activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995, 2) exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region), and 3) either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, with La Niña becoming increasingly likely. In addition, dynamical models forecasts of the number and strength of tropical cyclones also predict a very active season.

The conditions expected this year have historically produced some very active Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2010 hurricane season could see activity comparable to a number of extremely active seasons since 1995. If the 2010 activity reaches the upper end of our predicted ranges, it will be one of the most active seasons on record.

Also, there's another factor in play, and that's the ACE formula.

The NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season. We estimate a 70% chance that the 2010 seasonal ACE range will be 155%-270% of the median.

That gives an idea of how much time a storm exists and its intensity and correlates with the number of storms.

Still, it sounds like an average to slightly above average season prediction and if such storm does make landfall near you, all the usual disaster preparation steps should be taken - meaning to prepare well in advance of the storm and not expect immediate help from authorities in the case of a major hurricane landfall.

State of the New Orleans Levees

Hurricane season is upon us, and the levees in and around New Orleans aren't quite up to where they need to be, but they're in an improved situation from just a few years ago. There are still areas that are insufficient to handle a Category 3 storm and work is progressing in and around the city.

Despite the money that the Army Corps of Engineers is spending on construction -- $2.5 billion since Hurricane Katrina and another $8 billion at the ready -- the federal protection system of enhanced levees, floodwalls, pumps, ramps and gates won't be finished until June 1, 2011, at the earliest.

"There are improvements over last year, yes," levee board executive Bob Turner said. "But even when it's finished, it will only be a system to protect property. It's evacuations that save people.

"So please don't stay home because you read about this or that improvement that's been finished and think it's safe to stay."

Evacuation is a tall order for southeast Louisiana residents weary of the grueling and expensive process of fleeing storms only to see them fizzle onshore or veer away. But it remains the only real protection from the potentially deadly storm surge of a hurricane, according to emergency officials, engineers, geologists and water managers throughout government and academia.

These analysts have been studying the levee system ever since it failed so catastrophically during Katrina. Some of them still are.

This map shows the key details.

The expectation is that the new and upgraded levees will be able to protect the City and surrounding areas behind the levees from a 100 year storm. The Army Corps of Engineers expects to have the system in place in 2011.

Hurricane Ike's Grim Toll

Hurricane Ike left a trail of misery and death from the moment it made landfall on the Texas coast through the Great Lakes with massive flooding. At least 40 people were killed outside of Texas by flooding from rains of the remnants of Ike.

However, we're still a long way from knowing what's going on in places like Galveston and shore communities up and down the coast. The death toll thus far has been thankfully low, compared to the dire predictions, but some, including Gateway Pundit, think that the toll is going to be much higher as search and rescue gives way to recovery efforts and attempts are made to get next of kin to identify remains.

Searchers in Galveston expect to make lots of grim discoveries. That's a prim and proper way of saying that they're expecting to find lots of dead people who chose to remain in Galveston despite the mandatory evacuation.

In this ruined city, reduced to such an unlivable state that its mayor wants all remaining residents gone, searchers made their way through 90 percent of the inundated neighborhoods. So far they have confirmed two dead, with four others undetermined. Thousands of homes have yet to be reached.

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas warned that her city was heading toward a "downward spiral" and is not fit for habitation. Residents who evacuated are not being allowed back.

"There is nothing to come here for right now," Thomas said. "Please leave. I am asking people to leave."

Meanwhile, the hunt for survivors goes on. Searchers have accounted for 1,500 thus far in a house-to-house operation.

The death toll is expected to rise as the waters recede and searchers are able to cover more areas, said city officials, who brought in a refrigerated mobile morgue.

Devastation in places like Bolivar Peninsula is hard to comprehend, but it's on par with that which was seen in storms like Rita and Katrina.

Utilities are struggling to get power lines restrung and power restored to more than 3 million people. It may be weeks before power is fully restored, as utilities perform triage:

CenterPoint officials say crews focus on the repairs that restore power to the greatest number of customers in the shortest amount of time. That means repairing big feeder lines — the backbone of the distribution system — that can affect 1,000 customers or more.

The line fuses, which connect 100 or more customers, are next in line for attention. Transformers, which affect about 10 customers, are next, followed by line drops to individual homes.

Restoring power is key to solving other hurricane-related problems, including gasoline shortages, fresh food supplies, ice and water issues.

Blackouts persist up and down the Gulf Coast, including as far away as Mississippi.

Lafitte, Barataria, Crown Point, and Grand Isle, Louisiana residents have been allowed to return home, but utilities are out and there is widespread damage. Flooding remains an issue on major thoroughfares in and around New Orleans.