Friday, August 04, 2006

Diplomacy and the Hounds of Hell, Part XVIII

The Israeli war against Hizbullah continues, with Israel striking targets throughout Lebanon and Israeli ground forces continue to move towards the Litani River. Targets were hit in Beirut, which puts Nasrallah in a most curious position. He was busy yammering about how Hizbullah would strike Tel Aviv if Beirut was hit, and the IAF was busy doing just that. Now,will Hizbullah attack Tel Aviv, or will its threats fall short. Attacking Tel Aviv and the greater Tel Aviv area would put another million Israelis under the missile threat, as already more than 1 million Israelis are living in bomb shelters and bunkers for the past three weeks since Hizbullah began its missile campaign in earnest following its invasion and attack that killed eight Israeli soldiers and took two others into Lebanon.

Israel has also taken out the main road between Damascus and Beirut. Sounds like a good idea, since we don't want Hizbullah getting reinforced via Syra.

Dr. Sanity recognizes that the calls for a ceasefire that emenated from Iran are showing that Israel is doing serious damage to Hizbullah in Lebanon. They need a breather, and that's what Iran was trying to get. Too bad. So sad. Not that anyone in their right mind would agree to the terms of a ceasefire that doesn't return the parties to the position they were in before this latest fighting started except for the group (Hizbullah, Iran, and Syria) who have been mauled by the Israelis thus far and whose only gain was the two Israeli soldiers they're holding and that they're still breathing, which as I've noted before is enough for Hizbullah to claim victory. Israel, meanwhile, has destroyed thousands of rockets, rocket launchers, and gone after Hizbullah bunkers and facilities throughout Lebanon. Israel can't claim victory because the rockets are still hitting Israelis and they haven't recovered their soldiers yet.

Charles Krauthammer thinks that the Israelis don't quite appreciate what failure in Lebanon would mean to its relationship with the US. I think most Americans don't realize that if Israel fails to deal with Hizbullah that Iran's next target isn't going to be Israel, but the US. They're going to see that if the Israelis, with their very existence at stake, are incapable of fighting a total war against Hizbullah and defeat Iran's proxies, that the US is in an even worse position to deal with such a threat. That's precisely what Iran poses to the West - and is repeated regularly by Iran's mad mullahs and Ahmadinejad. That's why the whole issue of Iran's nuclear program is so dangerous. Iran keeps calling for Israel's destruction, and nary a word is raised recognizing that Iran's nuclear program is tied to those statements. Iran laughs at the UN statements condemning or otherwise limiting Iran, and continues to build the capability to produce sufficient nuclear materials for weapons.

Oh, and the UN is up to its blame Israel tricks again. They were blaming Israel's racism for the situation in Lebanon. From MSNBC:
“What is going on is far beyond what a reasonable people consider tolerable,” said Brazilian Ambassador Jose Lindgren-Alves, one of the experts on the panel, during the special session called to address the violence in the Middle East.

“Is there not at least a tinge of racism stimulating the disproportionate response to the kidnapping of one or two soldiers that was supposedly at the origin of Israel’s actions?” Lindgren-Alves asked.

Fellow committee members Agha Shahi, a former foreign minister of Pakistan, and South African Patricia Nozipho January-Bardill agreed.

“Would Israel have resorted to the bombing of civilian infrastructure if it were fighting a non-Arab force?” Shahi asked.
If those terrorists were bombing Israel, the answer is still yes. That Israel's enemies are Arab makes no difference. Israel is doing the same thing that all nation states have done since the Treaty of Westphalia. They've defended their national sovereignty against attack from foreign states and entities.

Nary a word about the fact that Hizbullah targets Israel precisely because Israel is Jewish. No word of condemnation about how Iran calls for Israel's destruction on a daily basis. That gets a pass from the UN. Figures. And never mind the disproportionate argument, as Hizbullah launches hundreds of rockets a day in the hopes of killing Israeli civilians. Israel is going after Hizbullah terrorists who hide in civilian areas and who use those civilians as human shields to maximize the body count in the media war between Israel and Hizbullah.

On that front, Hizbullah continues to win, as Israel's actions are continually seen in a bad light and Hizbullah's actions are excused. The actual fighting has gone Israel's way, despite the casualties Israel has suffered.

Laurence Simon wonders why all the silence from the Islamic countries and their diplomats over Iran's statements about the destruction of Israel. He wonders, do these countries silently assent and/or condone Iran's statements, or are the diplomats ineffectual elites who jawbone simply because that's their lot in life. It's a good question, and one that the journalists haven't really addressed. They simply ignore the 800 pound gorilla out there. Maybe the journalists are afraid of the answer. Who knows.

Ed Morrissey wonders why anyone trusts France given their complete reversal on Iran, where it called Iran a stabilizing influence on the region just a day before Iran called for Israel's destruction.

Bloggers to check in with for daily updates are Blue Crab Boulevard, Carl in Jerusalem, Israellycool, Dave Bender, Meryl Yourish, Euphoric Reality, Pajamas Media, Hot Air, Jameel at the Muqata, Greetings from the French Hill, R'Lazer, and Live from an Israeli Bunker. Check back with them regularly for updates.

Check in with Confederate Yankee and Dan Riehl among others for the ongoing saga that is the Qana incident and the media war against Israel. IsraelInsider has more.

Others blogging: Backyard Conservative, Atlas Shrugs, and Wizbang.

UPDATE:
Iran is racing to resupply Hizbullah, and Israel continues to go after convoys and disrupt the resupply efforts, which are coming via Syria.
Iran is racing to resupply Hezbollah across the Syrian border ahead of a possible cease-fire being ironed out this week at the United Nations. Meanwhile, Israeli jets have begun a new bombardment of Beirut's suburbs and Hezbollah is threatening to launch a missile attack on Tel Aviv.

Israeli military and intelligence officials here say Iranian technicians were aboard a flight to Damascus on Monday with the Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki.

The Israel Defense Forces also says it has not been able to seal the border between Syria and Lebanon, making it possible to ferry men, small rockets, and other materiel to Hezbollah through the back roads and smuggling routes in the Bekaa Valley.
As I've been saying for a while now, the key to this conflict was not the Israel/Lebanon border, but Lebanon's border with Syria. Control that border, and Hizbullah runs out of options quickly - as do Damascus and Tehran. Hizbullah would be effectively cut off from their terror masters. That's why Israel needs to step up its efforts in the Bekaa Valley.

UPDATE:
Hizbullah's rocket attacks continue to kill and maim Israelis. Three more Israelis were killed, and 86 injured in the latest attacks in Northern Israel. And apparently, Hizbullah rockets landed in Syria as well. Well, the rockets are unguided. Israeli forces lost two more soldiers, but killed more than a dozen Hizbullah.

UPDATE:
Updating the Israeli casualties, a total of three Israeli soldiers were killed in the fighting in Markabe, with two others seriously injured. Meanwhile, the Israeli navy destroyed Hizbullah's port operations in Beirut.
According to the army, the harbor, named after Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah's son who was killed by the IDF 1997, was the launching site of the Iranian C-802 missile that was fired at the Navy ship Hanit killing four soldiers in mid-July.

The site was also used to train Hizbullah operatives in weapons-smuggling, the army said.
Others blogging Iran's attempt to resupply Hizbullah. The Counterterrorism Blog notes that airstikes alone will not stop the influx of weapons into Lebanon from Syria, and that civilians will continue to be caught in the line of fire, just as a number of farmers from Qaa were killed. And while the Israelis have continued attacking locations in Beirut (15 in and around Beirut at last count), this posting suggests why Israel is acting as it is in Christian or Sunni areas of Beirut; The Israelis are trying to cut off Palestinians from joining in the fight. And lest anyone think that this war isn't being waged on behalf of Iran, the Iranians have publicly stated that they're providing Hizbullah with weapons, including missiles that could potentially strike Tel Aviv.

Hizbullah continues to launch long range missiles, including several that landed near Migdal Ha'amek. Israeli Ambassador to the UN calls Hizbullah's call for a ceasefire a sign of weakness.

Others blogging the conflict: Blue Crab Boulevard, Hyscience,

Charles at LGF comments on the media relations department at Hizbullah. Hot Air has more.

It Shines For All notes, not without some irony, that PM Olmert is open to the possibility that German peacekeepers may be stationed in Lebanon to deal with the implementation of a multinational force.

Sister Toldjah wonders why Sid Blumenthal is publishing stories about the US potentially providing Israel with intel to fight Hizbullah.

Cassandra has a great posting up about the role of America and how critics of the Administration love to argue from both sides of their mouth, especially in light of the conflict in Lebanon.

Israel hasn't let up on Hamas either as the IDF eliminated three Hamas operatives, and a child was killed in the strike as well.

UPDATE:
Atlas Shrugs notes that Iran and Hizbullah are still forcing the pace of action. Israel is reacting instead of getting inside the mad mullahs decision making process. Israel needs to make Iran and Hizbullah react to them, but thus far Israel is fighting defensively instead of offensively. She hopes that Israel is going after the resupply routes, as have I for some time now. Blue Crab Boulevard and Robert Spencer also notice Iran's rush to resupply Hizbullah in Lebanon.

The rockets that hit the Hadera area went 50km further than the rockets that hit Haifa. Still not quite to Tel Aviv, but getting there. The flight distance was about 90km. According to Debka, One of the rockets fired was aimed at the Ramat David air force base.

Irish Pennants likens the doom and gloom prognostications from the media types to that which was seen in 1864 in the North.

UPDATE:
Has Hizbullah's social network been torn to shreds by Israel's strikes? It appears that the attacks against financial targets has done more than cut off the flow to the terrorists. It's managed to cut off the financial support to the Shi'ites that formed the backbone of Hizbullah support:
According to the AP, the most significant damages, however, were inflicted on the offices of Beit Al Mal—Hizbullah's unofficial treasury. The Israeli attacks on Beit Al Mal have disrupted Hizbullah's ability to continue channeling funds to support various party activities, as well as payments for its activists.

In addition to physical damage to Hizbullah facilities, many Hizbullah operatives, including those in charge of social affairs, have been forced to flee. Consequently, almost all of Hizbullah's welfare activities have come to halt.
How can or will Israel exploit this is a major unanswered question, and one that may not become immediately apparent.

The NYT has aerial survey of Hizbullahland before and after Israel's airstrikes. This isn't carpet bombing, but selective targeting of high value items in Hizbullahland inside Beirut.

Meanwhile, has anyone else noticed just how quiet the online Left has been about the whole conflict between Israel and Hizbullah/Iran/Syria in Lebanon? Dean Barnett comments on that.

UPDATE:
Alcibiades at Kesher Talk has a good roundup of Iranian influence on regional events, from paying off Hizbullah martyrs to funding the rally in Iraq. The war with Hizbullah is the undercard. Iran is the main event, and we haven't gotten that far yet.

The Big Pharoah comments on Ahmadinejad's calls to eliminate Israel. His advice to the Iranian nutbar? Priceless. The Moderate Voice notes that when those who say Israel is in this fight for its survival, Iran has said correctemundo. When your mortal enemy says this is for all the marbles, believe it. Partisan Times also comments on the world taking sides in this conflict, and it isn't pretty. The Sundries Shack comments on the woes of being a French diplomat, following the Iranian debacle.

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