Media, Weather Experts Confirm NJ Transit Failed To Heed Flood Warnings

The Star Ledger conducted its own investigation into how NJ Transit managed to flood a third of its rail fleet (more than 300 rail cars and locomotives) by staging them in their Kearny and Hoboken yards.

Despite protestations by NJ Transit chief Jim Weinstein claiming that he didn't have warnings indicating that both locations would flood, The Ledger and other weather experts said that they were absolutely warned of the flood potential and it was hubris or ignorance that led to the flood damage.

It's something I've been saying from the moment we learned that the NJ Transit rail fleet was serious damaged by flooding. We now have still more confirmation that the reason that NJ Transit rail service has been so slow to recover to full service is that they lost so much equipment to flooding that could have been avoided (or at least reduced the chance of damage by moving the equipment to higher ground).

A Star-Ledger examination based on interviews, analysis of scores of forecasts and computer models found that on Oct. 28, the Sunday before the storm hit, only one forecast map showed a 10- to 20-percent chance of the Kearny yard flooding on Monday. Most other guidance was far more dire. Additionally, forecasters say NJ Transit never contacted them for help in interpreting the data, and had they, they would have been told Sunday morning the yard had a high to near certain likelihood of taking on water from the storm surge.

"It’s like going to the doctor and deciphering your own MRI," said I. Ross Dickman, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service’s Upton, N.Y. office, which forecasts for Kearny. "To our knowledge, NJ Transit has never called our office for supplementary information, and that’s unfortunate."

It became a costly decision. NJ Transit said it sustained an estimated $100 million in damages to cars and locomotives during the storm, the majority of which were stationed in Kearny.

While other agencies, like New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, spent days moving equipment to higher ground. NJ Transit relied largely on the flawed forecast tool and past experiences. In recent days, Weinstein has testified before the U.S. Senate and in Trenton that NJ Transit needed 12 to 18 hours to shut down its system and move equipment out of harm’s way.

"We now know, under certain circumstances, that that yard can flood," Weinstein told the Assembly Committee Monday. "The dynamics of the storm changed after we shut down our system. Our common sense is now informed by this event, which none of us have seen in our lifetime."

But Dickman said his office, as early as four days prior to Sandy’s landfall, had forecast a potential storm surge of six to 11 feet. Combined with high tide, it’s more than enough to flood the Kearny yard, where the elevation is only 10 feet. He said the threat was made clear in daily webinars NJ Transit employees attended. He also said the tool NJ Transit used, called the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge tool, is one of scores of forecast equipment his office uses to make a forecast and is guidance, not gospel.

Everyone was warning of serious flood risks due to the combination of astronomical high tide combined with a record-breaking storm surge that was likely to occur due to Sandy's tremendous size and wind fetch.

NJ Transit has been repeatedly telling anyone who will listen that they operated on the best information, but that's clearly not the case. The agency has been lying to the likes of the US Senate and New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg who let the agency off the hook as well as NJ State Legislators who also were far too lenient in their questioning of NJ Transit officials who bothered to show up for the hearings.

Weinstein says that they now know that Kearny and Hoboken could flood, but the flood forecasts were indicating precisely that ahead of Sandy. No effort was made to move equipment. The excuse was that moving it to higher ground could strand the equipment or expose the equipment to wind-driven storm damage. That's a debatable point to a certain extent, but leaving hundreds of cars in a flood zone exposed all that equipment to damage.

Putting equipment on higher ground would have avoided the serious flood damage. Sure, some equipment could have suffered damage due to downed trees or power lines, but that wouldn't affect entire trains (locomotives plus the normal allotment of cars they pull or push). It would have affected individual cars that could be taken out of service for repairs. Wind damage could also be reduced if NJ Transit did a better job of maintaining its right of way to trim trees that could result in downed lines or damage to equipment.

The agency failed on all accounts, and what's worse is that legislative leaders and Gov. Christie appear willing to let the agency and its top officials avoid taking responsibility for the damage.

The fact that the MTA and Port Authority utilized weather forecasters' expertise throughout the leadup to the storm shows just how off-base the NJ Transit actions were. Both of the other agencies were in close contact with the National Weather Service and other forecasters and both prepared to send equipment to higher ground. The MTA didn't lose equipment to the storm the way NJ Transit did, and were therefore able to resume service far quicker despite serious damage to East River Tunnels and other rail infrastructure.

Saying that NJ Transit will be better prepared going forward isn't sufficient. More must be done to hold NJ Transit officials responsible for their incompetence.

Amtrak's Gateway Tunnel Project Moves Forward As Recriminations Continue Over Cancelled ARC Project

My views on the ill-conceived ARC tunnel project are well known (just check out the label linked below). It was a poorly conceived project that would end up saddling New Jersey taxpayers with cost overruns that the Federal Transit Administration conceded could end up being anywhere from $1 to more than $4 billion over the $8.7 billion budget (which itself was higher than initial $5 billion estimated for the job). NJ Transit claims that they could hold costs to $10 billion simply didn't hold water, not when everyone was expecting it to run much higher considering the initial outlays were already running significantly overbudget.

Following Governor Christie's cancellation, Amtrak came forward with their own project - Gateway - which would not only provide high speed rail access through to New York Penn Station, but would give NJ Transit additional slots. The Gateway project is starting to get funds to do initial planning and design studies underway. While NJ Transit wouldn't necessarily get as many slots under the proposal as in ARC, the benefits greatly outweighed the fact that NJ Transit simply couldn't handle the project as NJ Transit's Jim Weinstein noted.

All that hasn't stopped New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg from sniping away at Governor Christie for claiming that New Jersey is suffering from the results of that cancellation at hearings relating to Port Authority fare/toll hikes.

It's partisan politics at its core - and that continued yesterday during hearings Lautenberg held in Congress with the Port Authority on the hot seat. It's interesting that during the hearing that Lautenberg's role as a Port Authority trustee came into focus considering that Lautenberg was busy complaining about fare and toll hikes all while Lautenberg was granted an exemption from tolls because he was a former trustee. That's hypocrisy in motion, and Lautenberg's actions and policy decisions helped form the current financial situation that required significant fare hikes (though the bulk of the fare/toll hikes are resulting from the Port Authority's cost overruns on the misbegotten PATH transit hub at the World Trade Center - the fare/toll hike nearly matches dollar for dollar the cost overruns).

The fact remains that Lautenberg could have prevented the cancellation had he done his job and secured the federal government's obligation to cover cost overruns - or to get New York to join in covering the costs for the project. Instead, he has decided to focus his ire on Governor Christie. It's so much easier to focus on partisan politics than doing the hard work of getting everyone who stands to benefit from the project to contribute - even if the contribution is conditional on covering potential cost overruns (that proponents could argue wouldn't materialize, but which were sufficient to scare off the FTA and federal government from covering them - that really speaks volumes about the nature of the cost overruns expected).

At the same time, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer has thrown his own ideas on the table for resurrecting a commuter tax on New Jersey residents who commute and work in Manhattan to fund mass transit projects in New York. He went on to complain about Christie's cancellation of the project, but where was Stringer to call on the City to contribute to the ARC project to keep it running? He was silent.

If the project was as vital as Stringer was saying, where was his voice to call on the City to find a way to fund the project.

It's all well and good to say that you've got a vision for New York City mass transit projects and finding a more stable revenue source, but when you've got the opportunity to get a project done that has been needed for years - and need to address the funding, you're missing in action. This too comes down to politics, which in Stringer's case is firing up the base for a potential run for Mayor to succeed Mike Bloomberg.

More Fallout From the GAO Report On ARC Tunnel and More Misleading Editorializations

Charles Stiles seems to think that Gov. Chris Christie was concerned more about the politics of looking like a fiscal conservative than doing the right thing in canceling the ARC tunnel project. He claims that the GAO report bolsters claims that Gov. Christie misled the public about who would be responsible for cost overruns.

The GAO report claims that New Jersey would be on the hook for 17% of the overruns, not 70% as Christie had claims, but let's dig a little deeper, shall we?

The possibility that taxpayers would get “stuck” with the bill seems like a long shot. New Jersey’s share of the project didn’t come from the $32 billion state budget, but from Jersey’s allotment of Port Authority project money, a smaller piece from New Jersey Turnpike toll collections, and from federal transportation dollars that flow through NJ Transit. Those sources would have been the likely targets to pay for overruns, not direct state funds financed by taxpayers through income, sales and corporate taxes.

“They definitely left the impression that it wasn’t the Port Authority, it was the state that was paying the cost of the overruns,’’ said Patrick Murray, a Monmouth University pollster and political analyst.

Overall, the GAO report reminds us of Christie’s aggressive salesmanship skills, his ability to stretch and piece together facts to make a compelling argument, and then using his bully pulpit to sell it or browbeat critics who have the temerity to challenge him.

Who exactly is paying for the cost overruns? NJ Transit, which is a state agency and receives state and federal funding, will have to divert its limited budget to cost overruns, forcing both additional fare hikes and state appropriations that will have to come from New Jersey taxpayers.

Port Authority cost overages will have to likewise be split between fare hikes, toll hikes, and that too falls on New Jersey and other taxpayers who utilize Port Authority facilities such as bridges, tunnels, and PATH system. It means that projects that the Port Authority would have otherwise considered for improvements would have been shelved shelved in order to complete the ARC project even as the Port Authority's budget is already stretched as a result of cost overruns on the PATH transit hub at the World Trade Center.

All the cost overruns would have eventually flowed back to taxpayers, despite which agency was allotted the overrun. Directly or indirectly, the cost overruns would have inured to New Jersey taxpayers and the bottom line from the GAO report and the FTA was that NJ Transit could not hold the line on cost overruns.

NJ Transit has repeatedly shown itself incapable of doing so, and it could not be expected to do so with the most ambitious and complicated project the agency has undertaken since it was established. The last time NJ Transit attempted an ambitious project of this sort, the $80 million budget on the Secaucus Transfer turned into a boondoggle of a $450 million underutilized project that would itself be obsolete and largely sidestepped if the ARC tunnel was completed because there would be no need to transfer between the Main/Bergen/Pascack lines and the NEC because everyone could take a one-seat ride to New York Penn Station.

Meanwhile, others are claiming that the ARC tunnel would have created thousands of jobs and improved the local economy. That is true, to a point. Construction jobs would have been created, but let's not forget that it was the federal government that refused to pick up the cost overruns that led Gov. Christie to kill the project. It was the feds that refused to push New York to pick up its share of the costs. The overruns would have hit New Jersey hardest, even though this was an interstate project. Ray LaHood could have picked up the cost overruns and forced NJ Transit into cost containment methodologies that would have protect New Jersey taxpayers. He didn't. Instead, he left the bulk of the overruns to be picked up through debt financing. That's not a solution. That's a punt into the future when he and other federal, state, and local politicians will be in office to deal with the financial mess left by the project.

And that doesn't even touch on just how ill-conceived the project was because of its terminus in New York and the additional costs that would inure to NJ Transit to operate that facility years and decades into the future.

That's where the Gateway Tunnel comes into play. This proposed project is superior to the ARC in every conceivable manner. It increases thru-traffic by doubling the number of trains that would run into New York Penn Station. It provides high speed rail access. It spreads the costs of construction among all the interested parties, including New York and New Jersey and puts Amtrak as the lead agency. It accomplishes everything that ARC did, without the problems associated with the lack of tail tracks and storage facilities.

The only thing that Gateway lacks is the funding mechanisms in place. That's the only thing that ARC had going for it. New Jersey's Gov. Jon Corzine, Senators Frank Lautenberg and Bob Menendez all managed to get the funding in place for the ill-conceived project, and it's Lautenberg who is whining loudest that the project was killed. He's taking it personally, even though it was he and Menendez who should have been burning up the phone lines to see to it that the federal government and New York pick up the overruns instead of saddling New Jersey taxpayers will the bill.

When Gov. Christie killed the ARC, the funding that was in place reverted to their sources, and that includes monies from the New Jersey transportation trust fund and Port Authority. That enables the Port Authority to go ahead with other vital projects, including raising the Bayonne Bridge for super Panamax shipping traffic to keep the New Jersey ports competitive and bridge and tunnel projects like replacing the stringers on the George Washington Bridge and replacing the helix at the Lincoln tunnel. The Transportation Trust Fund monies will be made available to rebuild deficient roads across the state.

It's not like that the money is going to waste - they're being used to fix and replace existing infrastructure, but it means that new sources have to be devoted to building the new Gateway project.

That's where Lautenberg and the other politicians have to get together and put together a fiscally prudent financial package that gets the project done in a timely and efficient manner.

No Surprise that FTA Wants NJ To Repay ARC Tunnel Expenditures

It comes as no surprise that the Federal Transit Administration wants to recoup nearly $270 million that New Jersey spent before Gov. Chris Christie killed the ARC tunnel project because it would have exposed the state to billions of dollars in cost overruns.

The same agency that determines that New Jersey was required to pay in the first place is the same agency that determined that their original decision was correct. That's how these things work, but it doesn't mean the fight over the money is over by any stretch.

It ignores that Christie will still end up saving New Jersey taxpayers billions in dollars in exposure to cost overruns - overruns that the federal government refused to cover, even as it acknowledged the potential overruns could exceed their estimates and that NJ Transit was incapable of providing cost containment.

It is also instructive to look across the Hudson River to the Port Authority's PATH Transit hub and see what happens when cost overruns hit hard. That project was initially expected to cost $2.2 billion, and efforts were made to try and keep the cost from going above $2.8 billion. We're now at $3.4 billion and it is expected to eventually cost $3.8 billion. Those are costs that will be passed on to Port Authority customers in one form or another - whether it's higher rents for tenants, higher fares on PATH, or higher tolls at Port Authority bridges and tunnels.

New Jersey needs infrastructure improvements, but it cannot and should not break its bank to do so - and interstate projects should be completed with interstate assistance. That was sorely lacking in the ARC tunnel project, where New York was not putting up any funds - and the feds refused to backstop the cost overruns.

The successor project, the Gateway tunnel has a better arrangement for funding, and New Jersey taxpayers will not be on the hook for the overruns.

So, in the end, New Jersey taxpayers benefit from the killing of the ARC tunnel, Amtrak benefits with a tunnel project that does what the ARC was originally intended to do - expand Amtrak and NJ Transit access to Manhattan along with high speed rail improvements, and provide better access and coordination between the relevant agencies that are to carry out the construction of the project.

It's also instructive that the New Jersey congressional delegation isn't exactly pulling out the stops to get the FTA to back off the repayment - they'd rather see Gov. Christie embarrassed by all this rather than fighting to protect NJ taxpayers from a project that was ill-conceived by Gov. Corzine and which would have saddled NJ Transit with a boondoggle to rival that of the Secaucus Transfer (all while NJ Transit lacks an operating budget to run increased service to boot).

Deadline Day For Florida's High Speed Rail Project

Today's the deadline day to get Florida's high speed rail (HSR) project back on track. Backers of the project say that any cost overruns would be borne by the private sector, eliminating the key concern for GOP Gov. Rick Scott, who also claims that the money would be better used upgrading ports to handle larger ships once the Panama Canal upgrade is completed:

"We have addressed all of the governor's concerns," said Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio. "We have structured this so that if there were cost overruns the private sector would take care if it."

Iorio, along with the mayors of Orlando, Lakeland and Miami, signed an agreement that calls for local authorities to take over the project with the help of the private sector. They presented their plan to Scott Wednesday.

"If there are operational short falls -- private sector. This is a true public-private partnership," Iorio said. "This is what governors all across the country want and we had structured this in such a way that there would not be risk to the Florida taxpayers."

Scott's office did not respond to CNN's request for a comment on the agreement.

Scott has said that he believes there would be a greater long-term benefit to the state if the money were used for other infrastructure projects.

"I want the money for our ports," he said, noting the expansion project now underway at the Panama Canal and the growth of economies in Central and South America. "Put that money into the Florida ports. That's where we want that money spent."

But LaHood said the funds were specifically allocated for high-speed rail and can't be switched to other projects.

Proponents of high-speed rail believe Florida is the ideal location for an inter-city system. The Tampa to Orlando project would be the first leg in a line that advocates hope to extend to Miami and eventually Jacksonville in the north of the state.

If that's the case, then let this project go ahead and see if Florida can get HSR up and running. It would be a tremendous test case to see if the country can get anything approaching HSR.

Meanwhile, funding to get key improvements on Amtrak's Northeast Corridor (NEC) are still lagging - particularly the Portal Bridge project that should be separate from all the discussions about the Gateway Tunnel/ARC project.

The Portal Bridge is a project everyone agrees upon, yet no one in the NJ delegation seems to be able to secure funding - and that includes Sen. Frank Lautenberg whose name adorns the Secaucus Transfer for all of his support of mass transit. Time for him to put up and shut about about his ongoing feuds with Gov. Chris Christie and secure the funding for this project that has been on the drawing boards for years and which all the relevant parties - from Amtrak to NJ Transit to the state and federal authorities - recognize as critical to improving the on-time performance of the NEC and increasing speed on the corridor to reduce travel time between Washington DC and Boston.

UPDATE:
Benjamin Kabab at Second Avenue Sagas takes another crack at trying to figure out how to get a cross-Hudson River tunnel done. His takeaway:

The overarching issue with ARC, Gateway of the 7 line extension is one of local government and expenditures. Who stands to benefit most from the new tunnel — New York businesses who can bring more commuters and tourists into the city or New Jersey residents who will find their commutes quicker and less stressful? Should New Jersey pay for transportation improvements that only incidentally end up in New York or should New York add more to the pot for a tunnel that adds to its economic allure?

The answer to those question is, obviously enough, probably both. To realize a new cross-Hudson rail tunnel, New York will have to add more to the pot, and they likely should. In an age of stretched state budgets though, it’s tough to see where the money will come from, and we may be in for a long wait until the next tunnel breaks ground.

Actually, he leaves out the point that a cross-Hudson tunnel is an interstate venture and Amtrak improvements would vastly improve interstate travel along the NEC. Expanding slots for NJ Transit helps the daily commuters that not only commute into Manhattan for the day, but the reverse commuters who go elsewhere. A 7 line expansion would greatly improve regional transit capabilities since a New Jersey resident would have a 1-seat ride from Secaucus all the way to Flushing, and the related access to more subway lines. It's a project worthy of further study and should be up for federal funding just as surely as the other rail projects.

Christie was right to demand that New York get in the game and pony up more funds to make the tunnel work - the ARC project could have been salvaged had New York come up with the funding to cover overruns, which was a major concern that New Jersey taxpayers would be hit with billions in overruns.

Meanwhile, talk about increasing the New Jersey gas tax to fund mass transit keep ignoring that the state's taxpayers are the most heavily burdened in the nation based on their overall tax burden and that increasing the gas tax would be a further regressive hit on all taxpayers.

Yet, at some point, that gas tax will be raised to cover transportation projects that are absolutely needed and vital to New Jersey infrastructure - both mass transit and highways. There are too many projects that are needed, and which lack the needed funds to happen anytime soon.

UPDATE:
The Florida Supreme Court ruled that Gov. Scott has the authority to cancel the project. With this project all but killed, I can only hope that New Jersey and New York take advantage of the $2.4 billion to get the Portal Bridge project underway, and to get a head start on the Gateway/ARC tunnel project.

Digesting the Politics of the ARC Tunnel Successor's

After Gov. Chris Christie killed the ARC tunnel project that would have put New Jersey taxpayers on the hook for anywhere from $1 to $5 billion in cost overruns and built a tunnel project that wouldn't accomplish anything near as much as its boosters claimed, Democrats Frank Lautenberg and Bob Menendez are hoping to build a tunnel project that would accomplish most everything that the ARC tunnel proponents hoped to achieve, but it will cost.

It's going to cost a minimum of $10 billion and most sources indicate that the cost will be at least $13.5 billion. That's due in part to the alignment of the tunnel to bring trains into a newly expanded cavern adjacent to Penn Station. The tunnel would have access to Penn Station and lead to high speed rail capabilities through New York City. The price tag also apparently includes the $1.8-$1.9 billion Portal Bridge project, which shouldn't have been included in the overall price tag and should have been budgeted separately since that replacement bridge needs to go ahead regardless of what decision is made on the tunnel projects.

Lautenberg and Menendez are pushing an Amtrak solution because it would attempt to cut Christie out of the decision-making process, even though Christie was absolutely right to demand that the federal government and New York pick up additional costs on this interstate project.

NJ Transit and the Port Authority will again be asked to kick in financing to bring the project to fruition, and Gov. Christie can still affect the outcome through his control over those agencies.

Still, no one is asking why this project, which is similar to one of the alternatives under the ARC tunnel design studies is costing so much more than those earliest projections. Lautenberg and Menendez have effective replaced a costly boondoggle with an even more expensive project and still haven't managed to get New York's congressional delegation on board to support jointly requesting and financing the project. That's a huge failure on their part since New York will garner a tremendous benefit while New Jersey continues picking up the costs from the project.

A new tunnel is absolutely essential to the long term growth in the region and rebuilding critical infrastructure. However, the atrocious state budgets on both sides of the Hudson River means that neither New Jersey nor New York can truly afford to put up the funds - either alone or together without significant federal aid. That means getting Congress and the President on board with this project.

You can bet that fiscal hawks in Congress will swarm over the fact that this new iteration of the tunnel plan is even more costly than the canceled ARC tunnel, and they're going to focus on the price tag, rather than the differences in the project that would bring significantly more benefits to mass transit and intercity transportation. Add to the fact that Republicans in Congress dislike Amtrak, and the odds that this project gets off the ground are slim even with the President's backing.

UPDATE:
The Star Ledger gives a cautious thumb's up for the Gateway tunnel proposal, but not without first lambasting Christie for killing the ARC tunnel and using monies that were originally devoted to the ARC tunnel to plug the Transportation Trust Fund shortfall.

I'm not surprised by that reading, but the paper ignores that the New Jersey Senators failed to find the funding to make the ARC tunnel work when Christie noted that NJ taxpayers would be on the hook for all the overruns.

The paper claims that the new proposal will result in fewer trains heading into Manhattan than the ARC tunnel, but that's not entirely accurate either. It would result in more Amtrak high speed trains going into Manhattan along with a smaller contingent of NJ Transit trains than the ARC tunnel provided. The capacity is actually likely to be higher than the ARC tunnel and will link to Sunnyside Yards for storage.

Another consideration is that the Amtrak head, Anthony Coscia, is the former head of the Port Authority, so he knows the political machinations at work in both states.

The paramount question, however, is how and when Amtrak and its partners can obtain the necessary funding to make the project a reality. The reports already indicate that the Gateway tunnel can use the ARC tunnel entrance in New Jersey, so there's more than enough evidence that New Jersey wont have to repay the $271 million for canceling the ARC tunnel, when the engineering and construction work undertaken will be utilized in the new project.

Another question is why everyone continues conflating the Portal Bridge project with the tunnel proposals. They can, and should be, independent projects and while both need to be undertaken, the Portal Bridge project doesn't have the rancorous funding problems that the tunnel has.

Sens. Lautenberg and Menendez Attempt To Resuscitate Trans-Hudson Tunnel Project

After Gov. Chris Christie killed the ARC tunnel project because New Jersey taxpayers would be on the hook for all cost overruns, and it was already estimated to go $1 billion over the $8.7 billion budget, Sen. Frank Lautenberg was among Christie's harshest critics. He complained about how commuters would be harmed by the loss of a key project.

Never mind that Christie was absolutely right to protect taxpayers from a project that would benefit New Jersey and New York, but put the entire risk of overruns on New Jersey while New York contributed no funds to the project. Even federal efforts to keep the project on track amounted to nothing more than additional loan guarantees to cover a portion of cost overruns.

The project, which was originally proposed as a $5 billion project, had already ballooned to $8.7 billion, and the most conservative estimate for overruns was $1 billion beyond that amount. Other estimates could have pushed the New Jersey share to $5 billion.

So, now Lautenberg and Menendez are back touting that they've got another plan to build a trans-Hudson river rail tunnel.

This time, they've got Amtrak on board with the proposal, and it would lead to an expanded Penn Station, rather than a dead-ended annex under Herald Square.

The cost of the project is still huge, and they expectation is that the tunnel will run $10 billion or more, but the issue will be who will cover what costs. With Amtrak involved this time, there will be additional cost sharing, and this proposal shows that the NJ Transit claim that the new tunnels could not be built to Penn Station were nothing but bureaucratic domain protection. It wasn't based on anything but NJ Transit trying to expand its own infrastructure at tremendous cost even though the agency's operating budget is incapable of handling the existing traffic.

The Gateway tunnel would allow 13 additional NJ Transit trains per hour — from 20 to 33 — and eight more Amtrak trains. The ARC project would have allowed 25 extra NJ Transit trains per hour.

"I’m in my late 60s, and I was just hoping and praying I’d see the day when there would be another Hudson River tunnel," New Jersey transportation expert Martin E. Robins said. "My hopes have been rekindled."

Many hurdles will have to be overcome, including finding federal and local funding for a project that could cost upwards of $10 billion. But Amtrak officials say they believe the tunnel fits in well with President Obama’s vision for infrastructure improvements in America and high-speed rail in the Northeast Corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C.
gateway-tunnel-project.jpgView full size

The hope is to have the Gateway tunnel built in a decade.

News of the announcement was first reported today on NJ.com, The Star-Ledger’s real-time news and information site.

Amtrak this week is expected to ask the federal government to fund a $50 million engineering study on the Gateway plan. The project also could benefit from the engineering work done previously for ARC.

Amtrak President and Chief Executive Officer Joseph Boardman, Amtrak board member Anthony Coscia, Lautenberg and Menendez are expected to present the alternative tunnel plans during a news conference at 11 a.m. Monday at the Hilton Newark Penn Station.

Amtrak had intended to build another tunnel to improve capacity in the nation’s most congested rail corridor, but not until 2040. The killing of the ARC tunnel expedited the Gateway tunnel plans.

Citing projected cost overruns that would leave New Jersey taxpayers on the hook, Christie pulled the plug on the nation’s largest public works project on Oct. 27.

Lautenberg immediately began working with Amtrak to revive the trans-Hudson rail tunnel project, which he says will benefit New Jersey’s commuters by giving them transfer-free train rides to prosperous jobs in Manhattan, increase property values along the rail line and put contractors to work.

"New Jersey is facing a transportation crisis," he said. "Our commuters are fed up with train delays that make them late to work and endless traffic that traps them on our highways when they want to be home with their families. When the ARC tunnel was canceled, it was clear to me that we couldn’t just throw up our hands and wait years to find another solution."

New Jersey always rises above challenges, Menendez said in a statement tonight. "While some choose to do nothing and accept delays, the people of New Jersey cannot, will not, and must not wait. We are moving full steam ahead with this strong investment in New Jersey and the region. We are on a path to create good-paying jobs and move people and goods more quickly."

Some transportation officials think the Gateway plan makes more sense than expanding the No. 7 subway line from New York City to Secaucus Junction, an idea floated over the last three months by the staff of New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Under Amtrak’s best-case scenario, the No. 7 line would also be extended to Penn Station, between 31st and 33rd streets, two blocks west of the Empire State Building.

Along with the Gateway project would be a plan to raise and replace the decrepit, century-old train Portal Bridge between Kearny and Secaucus over the Hackensack River. The condition of the bridge limits train speeds and the span is so low that it often has to be opened to allow commercial boats to pass under, causing more delays.

When the ARC project was being considered in the 1990s, Amtrak was in a fight for survival with the federal government and couldn’t assist New Jersey. The Gateway tunnel represents a historic change of direction for Amtrak, Robins said.

The $1.3 billion Portal Bridge project should be going ahead regardless of what happens with the tunnel project, because it is one of the worst bottlenecks on the entire Northeast Corridor, and that work isn't contingent on what happens with the tunnel project.

NJ Transit's dealing with an aging infrastructure and an operating budget that can't cover the existing schedule. I have serious doubts over its scheduling claims from North Jersey when there have been a reduction in train service, and debt service on the Secaucus Transfer continues to be a drain all while the proposed tunnel would include a Transfer bypass allowing trains to travel directly into Manhattan from North Jersey. That would severely limit the ridership that would utilize the Transfer unless the existing parking facilities are greatly expanded.

What remains to be seen is who will be paying for what and what the New Jersey share will be. Moreover, the key questions will be whether New York actually ponies up any funds to cover construction costs, and who will bear the risk of cost overruns.

This new project is already starting at a much higher price point, and it's more than double the original ARC tunnel cost projection.

UPDATE:
I wonder if the costs for the new tunnel project are including the Portal Bridge costs, which at last check was a totally separate and distinct project that was scheduled to cost $1.344 billion. Construction is scheduled to begin next year and run through 2017 in building two new bridges and five tracks to handle traffic on the Northeast Corridor as well as reconfigure about 10 miles of track between Newark and Secaucus Transfer to handle high speed rail (80-90 mph, from the current 60 mph limitations). That work has to be done regardless of what happens with the tunnel project, and monies were already set aside by Amtrak, the ARRA of 2009, and other funding sources to get the project underway.

It's notable that there isn't any mention of where the money is coming from under the new proposal, and it's further notable that neither of New York's senators, including Chuck Schumer were around to agree on a joint New York/New Jersey plan to fund the project. That would once again suggest that New York is not going to be putting up monies to get the project done.

There's a further question of how exactly this new proposal (which actually is a step back to the original intent of the ARC tunnel when first proposed) will take the sails out of the study by New York City to extend the 7 Line to Secaucus.

UPDATE:
Reuters is reporting that the cost for the project would be $13.5 billion. That would put it significantly above the costs for the canceled ARC tunnel, and more than double the original cost estimate for the ARC tunnel when first proposed despite being little different from the original design and scope. Even if the $13.5 billion includes the $1.344 billion for the Portal Bridge, we're talking about the upper range from the cost estimates that led Christie to kill the project.

As a reminded, when the ARC tunnel was first proposed years ago, it was seen as a $5 billion project. By the time Christie killed it last year, it was up to $8.7 billion but widely expected to go at least $1 to $5 billion over that budget.

Now, we're looking at a $13.5 billion to achieve the same goal as the original budget and it's riding on the hope that President Obama's Amtrak capital initiatives get adopted.

The one question that seems to be missing from the reporting is how and why this latest attempt to build new capacity is costing so much more than the original project? Those are the unanswered questions that reporters have yet to ask in any critical fashion.

UPDATE:
Digging through the Amtrak Northeast Corridor master plan, Amtrak and NJ Transit believe that as of May 2010 that the cost of the Portal Bridge will cost $1.8 billion (page 29) or $1.9 billion (page 101 overall/page 28 of Part II), which is significantly above the $1.344 billion as per the Portal Bridge site information. There's a further backlog of $214 million to rehabilitate the existing two Hudson River tunnels and rehabilitation of the overhead catenary system and replacing electrical substations would cost another $350 million. That's despite a $453 million infusion of federal stimulus monies. Overall, Amtrak says that they're short $5.2 billion to bring the system into a state of good repair.

New York To Study Extending 7 Line To Secaucus

After Gov. Chris Christie killed the ARC tunnel project and riled the likes of Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, one of the alternative proposals was that the MTA should extend the 7 line to Secaucus.

Well, the MTA and New York City are going to conduct a study whether it makes sense to do so.

The city hired engineering firm Parsons Brinckerhoff this week to analyze how many riders the line could serve, how they would connect to the NJTransit train hub in Secaucus and - most importantly - how much it would cost.

Their study is due in three months, which Deputy Mayor Robert Steel said will help show government and transportation agencies in the region whether to go forward.

"All of [them] are focused on trying to understand, is this a good alternative?" Steel said. "It's a matter of months, not years."

Other officials in New York and New Jersey are looking at the idea, but haven't put up any cash to make it happen.

It could give New Jersey residents their first direct train line to Grand Central Terminal, as well as to see the Mets or the U.S. Open in Queens.

"City Hall really does want to explore it," said one person involved in the multiagency talks.

"They have an incredibly reluctant MTA partner, and an incredibly wary New Jersey state government," the source cautioned. "[MTA Chairman] Jay Walder doesn't have enough money to finish what they're already doing."

The city is paying $2.1 billion to extend the 7 train to 34th St. and 11th Ave., where it will serve a massive office and housing development planned for the West Side rail yards.

Schumer, along with New Jersey's Sen. Lautenberg have been hypercritical of Christie's shutdown of the ARC tunnel over expected cost overruns that would likely leave New Jersey on the hook for an excess of $1 billion (some estimates put it as high as $5 billion).

Schumer and Lautenberg were unable to find additional funding to cover potential overruns, and the federal DOT could only provide additional loans to cover potential overruns. All they could do was snipe at Christie looking at the state's financial health and seeing that the state could not afford to cover cost overruns that were beyond its control. No one else was willing to step in to cover the overruns, which should be a warning sign that Christie was right to reconsider the project since if the costs could be contained, it should have been easy to convince other entities (the federal government, or New York) to cover potential cost overruns directly.

It's inexcusable on their part to not find the funding or ways to enable New York to pony up the overruns. New York state finances are in shambles as I've repeatedly warned and argued, but a new rail connection was critical to reducing congestion and improving service along the Northeast Corridor. Further, the new tunnels could support additional traffic that could be generated by a link to Stewart Airport in Newburgh. The Port Authority bought the airport in an attempt to reduce congestion at the other area airports but hasn't found a way to integrate it into the long term airport strategy. It needs a high speed rail link to make that a credible option, but no one has the money to make it happen.

That's where the federal stimulus funds should have come into play - using the federal government's funding to build major infrastructure that would help bring relief to the millions of commuters and travelers who rely on an aged and decrepit system.

The 7 line extension would be less costly than the ARC tunnel project, and would bring a more direct routing for commuters looking to get to the East Side of Manhattan and the rest of the City and it's an option worth seriously considering, even if a portion of the ill-conceived Xanadu looks like it will collapse under the strain of the latest snowstorm.

Moreover, the 7 line extension would likely be able to use much of the real estate procured for the ARC tunnel and the engineering expenditures and other work on the tunnel before it was cancelled. That will further reduce the New Jersey tab that it would owe to the federal government for canceling the project.

In Wake of Giffords Assassination Attack, Calls To Ban Extended Clips; UPDATE: Rep. King To Call For 1,000 Foot Ban?

In the wake of the attempted assassination of Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords that left six dead and 13 injured, several members of Congress have proposed banning extended clips such as the one apparently used by Jared Loughner in the attack.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) has introduced a measure in the Senate while New York Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney is expected to introduce a similar measure in the House.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) said he would introduce the measure to re-establish a prohibition that lapsed in 2004 on clips that feed more than 10 rounds at a time.

"The only reason to have 33 bullets loaded in a handgun is to kill a lot of people very quickly. These high-capacity clips simply should not be on the market," Lautenberg said in a written statement announcing his plans. He said he would file the bill when the Senate returns to session later this month.

The focus on Capitol Hill isn't a gun ban, but rather on the extended clips that allow a user to fire off 30 rounds before having to reload. However, expect Republican and NRA opposition to the proposed measures.

UPDATE:
Huffington Post is reporting that Rep. Peter King (R-NY) is going to introduce a measure that would make it illegal to carry a weapon within 1,000 feet of an elected official.

Rep. Peter King, a Republican from New York, is planning to introduce legislation that would make it illegal to bring a gun within 1,000 feet of a government official, according to a person familiar with the congressman's intentions.

King is chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee. The proposed law follows the Saturday shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) and a federal judge that left six dead, including the judge, and 14 wounded.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, one of the nation's most outspoken gun-control advocates, is backing King's measure and is expected to put the weight of his pro-gun-control organization behind it.

Such measures wont prevent criminal acts such as the Giffords attack, but provide additional criminal sanctions for those who break the law. I think enforcement of the proposed measure would be extremely problematic.

It would seem to trump concealed carry among those who are lawfully within their rights to otherwise carry weapons and raises a question as to how the law could be enforced in the residential areas around members. Would this mean that a representative living in an urban area has a zone of 1,000 feet around them where possessing weapons is potentially illegal?

The measure may end up being limited to members participating in public events or at their offices or the 1,000 foot zone is reduced to something more manageable - 500 or 250 feet.

UPDATE:
The 1994 Assault Weapons Ban, defined large capacity ammunition feeding devices but did not establish an outright ban.

DEFINITION OF LARGE CAPACITY AMMUNITION FEEDING
DEVICE.—Section 921(a) of title 18, United States Code, as amended
by section 110102(b), is amended by adding at the end the following
new paragraph:
‘‘(31) The term ‘large capacity ammunition feeding device’—
‘‘(A) means a magazine, belt, drum, feed strip, or similar
device manufactured after the date of enactment of the Violent
Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 that has
a capacity of, or that can be readily restored or converted
to accept, more than 10 rounds of ammunition; but
‘‘(B) does not include an attached tubular device designed
to accept, and capable of operating only with, .22 caliber rimfire
ammunition.’’

The prohibition was written such that it was unlawful to transfer or possess those items except if they were otherwise lawfully possessed on or before the enactment date (1994) and there were certain additional exemptions from the requirement. This wasn't an outright ban but did limit the transfer and production of new extended ammo feeding devices such as extended clips. Reenacting the 1994 legislation would not ban the extended clip and would not have prevented the attacks. Had a ban been in place, it could have reduced the number of people injured and/or killed.

Feds Come Calling On New Jersey For ARC Tunnel Money State Doesn't Have

This is a rather rich and ironic situation. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie killed the ARC tunnel project because of anticipated cost overruns in excess of $1 billion (and which could have been as much as $5 billion) because the state couldn't afford the overruns. The federal government attempted to salvage the project by telling New Jersey that it could further mortgage its future and take on still more debt rather than the federal governmnet assuming the risk of overruns itself - or calling on New York to kick in funding for the project.

So, the project died and certain expenditures already spent are now being claimed by the feds for reimbursement. The feds want $271 million back from New Jersey and have given the state a Sopranos-style deadline to make the payment.

New Jersey doesn't have $271 million to reimburse the feds. Its budget is already maxed out and stressed to the limits but the feds don't care one bit about New Jersey taxpayers. New Jersey taxpayers were going to be on the hook for overruns. So, the feds would rather see the state hike taxes further to pay off the initial sunk costs - like real estate acquisitions, planning, and other expenses.

Moreover, if work was already done then the money can go towards any future project that may end up utilizing the planning and acquisitions. Certain funds weren't spent, so were excluded from the calculation that New Jersey owes $271 million. The federal government can much easier write off the costs than the state - it was stimulus for the construction firms that handled the initial phases of preparing a tunnel right of way for inevitable use down the line.

Instead, this is the federal government's passive-aggressive way of trying to get back at Gov. Christie and his fiscal prudence in killing a project that was going to be a massive hit for New Jersey taxpayers who are already the most heavily burdened in the nation.

New Jersey's congressional delegation doesn't seem to be in a hurry to deal with this matter either - hoping that the situation causes political discomfort to the Governor. Instead of making sure that the money goes to a better alternative - the 7 line expansion that would be able to utilize much of the infrastructure and same right of way and at a fraction of the cost, they're hoping to make a mess of the state budget because Sen. Lautenberg and Gov. Christie don't get along.

Lautenberg Demands Investigation Into Christie Killing ARC Tunnel Project

New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg thinks that his recourse against Gov. Chris Christie killing the ARC tunnel project is to launch investigations. That's all Lautenberg can think of?

Lautenberg should indict himself in this farce. After all, where was he to come up with the federal money or promise to fund cost overruns? That's Lautenberg's job - as senior member of the New Jersey Congressional delegation, it was his job to get the funding secured. It was his job to get New York on board with financing a portion of the interstate project, and failing that, to get the feds to cover cost overruns instead of forcing New Jersey to bear the burden alone when the state cannot afford those cost overruns without incurring significant debt. All the estimates showed that cost overruns would tally at least $1 billion, if not $3 to $5 billion. Those are costs New Jersey could not afford.

Yet Lautenberg did nothing of the sort, and the federal government refused to cough up additional money. That the feds chose not to fund this project's potential cost overruns is quite telling as to the viability of the project as a whole. It was an indictment about the true value of the project, which turned out to be little more than a vanity project for NJ Transit that the agency could not afford to operate (seeing that it can barely afford its current infrastructure after raising fares and cutting service).

If President Obama, who has repeatedly called for increased spending on infrastructure of precisely this sort - mass transit expansion and upgrades - refused to provide the additional insurance against cost overruns, what does that say about this project, or Obama's committment to mass transit?

It shows that this project was not a good one, even if the intentions of the original design were. As originally intended, the ARC tunnel would double capacity on the Northeast corridor into New York Penn Station. The mess that we were stuck with before Gov. Christie canned the project built a separate two-track line into Manhattan that didn't connect with the Northeast Corridor and lacked the storage capacity for additional trains into Manhattan. It was a mess that deserved to be killed. NJ Transit claimed that they couldn't build the tunnel to Penn Station because of technological problems with doing so, yet Amtrak is proposing to do just that.

Everyone should focus on getting the Amtrak proposed 2-track tunnel addition built. This is a true doubling of track capacity on the Northeast Corridor that benefits riders of both NJ Transit and Amtrak - and provide the services and amenities that do not overly burden New Jersey taxpayers while asking nothing from New York taxpayers, even though this was the largest interstate project proposed.

A Not Quite Rightous Rant on the ARC Tunnel Nonsense

Brian Donohue at the Star Ledger has a story on their site about the craziness surrounding the ARC Tunnel and the bickering among the politicians and Gov. Christie's demand that the state not be held accountable for cost overruns. He even has a video with a not quite righteous rant about the project.

The ARC tunnel saga: a sad state of affairs

In that video, he mentions that the wars in Iraq cost $1.1 trillion dollars and that we could have built quite a bit with that money (except that no one knows what money would have been spent considering that in the years prior to 2001 the government never spent more than a few billion dollars on infrastructure in New Jersey as a part of the federal transportation bills such as TEA-21).

Donohue mentions that if New Jersey repeals the law requiring self-service gas, prices at the pumps could drop a few cents and the state could raise the tax a few pennies to keep prices at the current levels. That's just trimming away at the margins, because the state's fiscal problems are much deeper than just trying to salvage the Transportation Trust Fund that spends a significant percentage on debt payment - far more than it can bear.

No, what gets glossed over is the fact that the Swiss recently reached a major milestone in completing the Gotthard base tunnel - a 2 tunnel system with miles of additional connecting passageways and emergency stations carved out of solid rock, which stretches 35 miles and cost $10 billion. The ARC tunnel is just over 1 mile in length including approaches and we're talking about $10 billion. What justifies that kind of cost?

No one wants to discuss that particular aspect, nor does anyone want to pay serious attention to the fact that the French have been able to lay high speed rail by the mile at a fraction of the cost of projects here in the US. That includes the proposed Las Vegas to California route through vast expanses of open desert.

Major infrastructure in the Northeast in particular was built more than a century ago, and it's showing its age and wear and tear. That means that the operating costs for those projects are higher because of higher maintenance. The Brooklyn Bridge is undergoing just the latest in a series of rehabilitation that will make it capable of carrying traffic for the next two decades, but costs hundreds of millions of dollars.

The existing pair of Hudson River tunnels was built a century ago, and besides the PATH tubes, are the only rail links into Manhattan from New Jersey. That has to change, but the ARC tunnel isn't the way to get it done.

As I noted yesterday, misplaced priorities plays a big role in NJ Transit being in a fiscal bind it faces. It has cut service and has shown itself incapable of maintaining the system at its current level, yet it is clamoring for a new rail station and tunnel system that it wants the state to cover on cost overruns but which it can't afford. Instead of linking the tunnels back into Penn Station, NJ Transit wants a separate terminus in Manhattan that does nothing to alleviate congestion or problems if a disabled train blocks one of the tracks to Penn Station.

Then, there's the issue with the Portal Bridge (a movable span on the Hackensack River), which is yet another bottleneck that Donohue doesn't mention. That bit of infrastructure is also 100 years old and is the site of repeated delays. Replacing that bridge is just as important, and even that project is expected to run $1 billion or more. Building that fixed span replacement would eliminate many of the delays that customers regularly face on the Northeast Corridor, and yet the state and federal government couldn't find the money in the stimulus package to get work underway last year. That is on the New Jersey congressional delegation that includes Sen. Frank Lautenberg who is on the transportation committee and whose name graces the Secaucus Transfer.

A replacement for a critical piece of infrastructure doesn't get nearly the press of a new tunnel system, but the outcomes are the same if they don't get built - delays and reliance on obsolete infrastructure that increases travel times along one of the most heavily traveled stretches of rail in the nation.

When Transportation Priorities Are Backwards

Groundbreaking ceremonies were held to celebrate the first phase of building the Moynihan rail station to replace the decrepit New York Penn Station that is built underneath Madison Square Garden.



It's named for the former US Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan who championed the project to build a grand entrance for passengers to the Amtrak, LIRR and NJ Transit commuters who use the station and to hearken back to the grandeur of the station that was demolished to make way for the Garden.

The first phase is expect to cost $267 million of the approximately $1.5 billion project, which will shift Amtrak's platforms West underneath the Farley Post Office Building and constructing new entrances to the station. The additional phases will include building hotels and restaurants in sections of the Post Office Building that are no longer used by the post office.

A grand entrance to Amtrak is a worthy endeavor, but does it actually improve service and reliability? This station does not expand capacity. It does not improve reliability. It is getting done because the financing for this long overdue project finally came through.

However, it came through at a time when $1 billion could finance the construction of the new Portal Bridge. That bottleneck is the site of repeated problems causing delays on the entire Northeast Corridor and affects not only Amtrak but New Jersey Transit commuters. Just this morning, a disabled train in the vicinity of the Portal Bridge caused 30-45 minute delays because the train blocked one of the two tracks through the area. Indeed, long after rush hour is over, residual delays are causing ongoing delays of 10-15 minutes on the affected lines.

A replacement Portal Bridge, which would cost over $1 billion but would increase the number of tracks to five on two separate fixed spans over the Hackensack River (one bridge would have three tracks for northbound traffic, the other two tracks would be for southbound traffic). The increased reliability and reduced delays that would result from that project are more than worth it since improved reliability and on-time performance would encourage people to commute by rail rather than dealing with auto traffic into the City.

NJ Transit and Amtrak have both consistently gotten their priorities backwards. Penn Station isn't a priority, nor is the ARC Tunnel's destination terminus at Herald Square - building out a rail system that is robust and can handle existing levels of traffic is necessary and prudent since on-time performance is a big selling point for Northeast Corridor traffic in hopes of luring passengers off air shuttle flights. The Portal Bridge would also enable trains to travel through the area at much higher speeds, reducing travel times considerably.

Moreover, the Portal Bridge project is as close to being a shovel-ready project as any around the country and yet finding funds for this vital piece of transportation infrastructure was hard to come by. How is it that both New Jersey senators Menendez and Lautenberg are busy complaining about Gov. Christie's prudent actions to protect New Jersey from cost overruns on the ARC Tunnel but silent about getting funding for the equally necessary and vital Portal Bridge project, which would have as great an impact on commuters?

ARC Tunnel Proponents Use Misleading Statistics

Proponents of the ARC Tunnel are claiming that someone from Rutherford could save 20 minutes every day commuting into Manhattan if the ARC tunnel is built. That's assuming that the person is going to commute to Penn Station and not Lower Manhattan via PATH (which is a longer commute thanks to the construction of Secaucus and the additional stop made there).

Is the time savings (which likely wont be 10 minutes each way because there are routinely delays of 5 minutes built into scheduled times) worth the cost projected at $10 billion or more?

No.

Moreover, a one-seat ride virtually eliminates the need for the $1 billion transfer station that has been underutilized ever since it was built. The time savings may not materialize because of train schedules that continue to send trains to Hoboken and into Penn Station, rather than delivering all trains to Hoboken. Without a major increase in parking at stations all along the North Jersey train lines, there isn't going to be the mass of commuters necessary to justify the costs.

Of much more immediate utility is the necessity to build a replacement to the Portal Bridge. That bridge repeatedly causes major disruptions to traffic on the Northeast Corridor and is a major choke point as the 4-track system narrows to two tracks (just as it does for the Hudson River tunnels). A typical problem with the Portal Bridge can cause 30-60 minute delays, just as it did last night.

A replacement project would eliminate the movable bridge section and build a fixed span in its place that enables high speed transiting of the area leading into Secaucus. That's where the money should have been spent first and foremost, but instead the money went for the Secaucus Transfer and then to the ARC Tunnel.

It's a misplaced sense of priorities among all the concerned parties - including NJ Transit and Amtrak.

That needs to be addressed, but this latest report does nothing of the sort. Senator Lautenberg referred obliquely to the delays last night and claimed that the ARC tunnel would fix that problem, but these are two separate projects.

The ARC Tunnel is a necessity, but not at the cost of bankrupting New Jersey which lacks the ability to cover the expected cost overruns. The federal government is in a position to best make sure that the project moves ahead, but at the same time assurances that the costs can be contained (and that the costs are reasonable and accurately reflect the conditions and costs) must be delivered. This can't be a blank check, even for the federal government.

After all, other projects around the country can come in on budget and on schedule, despite daunting construction hazards and technological hurdles. Take the Hoover Dam Bypass (Highway 93 bypass). It came in on budget and on schedule, despite working in the extreme conditions of the Colorado River basis and in close proximity to a national landmark. The replacement I-35 bridge in Minneapolis came in under budget and ahead of schedule and the contractor won $27 million in performance bonuses for completing the structure ahead of schedule. The winning bid ended up being well below the expected costs.

Sen. Lautenberg Diagnosed With Stomach Cancer

New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg has been diagnosed with stomach cancer. He had fallen at his home and tests revealed a bleeding ulcer to be the cause. Further tests revealed a treatable stomach cancer.

“We expect a full and complete recovery for Senator Lautenberg. The senator will be treated with chemotherapy administered approximately every three weeks. We anticipate that he will receive between six and eight treatments, and in between treatments, the senator is expected to be back at work in the Senate.”

Lautenberg took ill Monday while at home in Cliffside Park. He fell down and phoned his doctor and an ambulance. The senator directed the ambulance to transport him to Manhattan for treatment at Mount Sinai Medical Center, where he has been hospitalized ever since. Lautenberg never lost consciousness, his aides said.

Doctors quickly determined that Lautenberg had fallen due to blood loss from a bleeding ulcer. The bleeding was stopped during an endoscopy. Additional pathology tests revealed the ulcer was caused by a b-cell lymphoma of the stomach.

Despite being the second oldest members of Congress (behind Richard Byrd), he has been quite active in recent months, including a trip to Haiti last week to tour the damage in Port au Prince.

I wish him and his family well. It doesn't sound like he's going to miss much time in Congress, or that this will somehow prevent him from completing his term in office. Still, his current term ends in 2014, so that if he were somehow forced to step down, it would mean that Republican Governor Chris Christie would have the power to appoint an interim senator.

Video Released Showing Newark Liberty Security Breach

The guard leaves his post about 5 minutes into the 6 minute video and about 30 seconds later a man and his significant other walk through in the opposite direction.

The video was released at the insistence of New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg. It was on a video system used by Continental Airlines, not the TSA system. The TSA system was inoperative.

UPDATE:
The key moments:
1:01: TSA officer asks unidentified man to move away from secure area
4:54: TSA officer leaves his post
5:31: unidentified man enters secure area with the woman who had just emerged from secured area.

A commenter wonders if any corrective actions were taken against the guard who left his post. He was placed on administrative leave according to the NY Times.

Lou Dobbs To Run For US Senate In New Jersey?

A New York Post report indicates that Lou Dobbs, who just left CNN after spending his entire career at the cable news network, may be contemplating a run for the US Senate in New Jersey.

For years, Dobbs has dogged rumors that he was eyeing a political career. But with the conservative Gov.-elect Chris Christie poised to take control in Trenton, many Jersey political watchers feel the timing could be right for Dobbs, a self-described "Rockefeller Republican."

"This is something that has been talked about, particularly for 2012 against Senator [Robert] Menendez," said Brigid Harrison, a political science professor with Montclair State in New Jersey.

The ex-CNN anchor has two key advantages that would make him a particularly attractive candidate.

As host of a highly rated national show, Dobbs would start any race with higher-than-average name recognition.

In addition, because of his national prominence, he'd also likely be an effective fund-raiser.

Dobbs switched his party affiliation in 2006 from Republican to independent, but his views on a number of issues -- most notably for tougher border control -- have endeared him to many conservatives.

He certainly has the name recognition, but does he have the policy positions that people would support? I'm not sure of that, and I think that once people understand that he's a birther - someone who thinks that President Barack Obama isn't a US citizen qualified to be President under the US Constitution, and I think that he wouldn't be a good fit. In fact, it may be Dobbs' support for the birther conspiracy nonsense that sent CNN boss Joe Klein to give Dobbs an ultimatum - quit the nonsense on his network or quit the network. Dobbs chose to quit the network.

I would not support Dobbs on that basis, and it isn't healthy for the GOP to do so either. The GOP has seen a resurgence in New Jersey because their standard bearer, Chris Christie is a moderate who isn't pushing nonsensical conspiracy theories.

That isn't to say that Republicans might not embrace him in any event, as an outsider and someone who is independently wealthy to take on current Democrats Bob Menendez or Frank Lautenberg.

Moreover, Dobbs' position on immigration would be out of line with the liberal politics of New Jersey, which has a significant immigrant population. It is interesting that Menendez took a cheap shot at Dobbs leaving CNN by claiming that his departure was addition by subtraction, when anyone objectively looking at CNN would know that the network is in serious trouble and Dobbs was among the more watched shows on the network. In fact it's in the rear view mirror of the other news networks, and is falling behind the Travel Channel; a situation that isn't easily reversible.

For Menendez to take that kind of shot shows the allure of Dobbs running for the Senate; the Democrats know that they'd be in for a real fight. I just think it would be a real bad move on the GOP's part to embrace someone who clearly espouses conspiracy theories that are unsupportable by the facts. It's something that his Democrat opponents will latch on to and attack relentlessly because it's unsupportable; the race will not be about the issues, but about Dobbs' character and fitness for the job.

That should send warning signs to the state GOP.

It is possible that Dobbs could make a third party run, which would likely split the vote and make predicting the outcome of a race exceedingly difficult at such an early stage.

Funding Already in Trouble For New ARC Tunnel?

Are you kidding me? Experts are already warning that funding for the $8.7 billion tunnel is in jeopardy, despite commitments for billions in aid from the federal government, state of New Jersey and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

It's the federal portion that's in jeopardy - the part that Senators Lautenberg and Menendez were busy crowing about at the groundbreaking ceremonies earlier this month along with Governor Corzine.

Funding for New Jersey’s second commuter rail tunnel to Manhattan may be $3 billion short of its price tag, which could leave the state few options — such as higher tolls and taxes — if the federal government fails to provide that money.

A weak economy could force congressional leaders to delay or reduce federal funding for a project that has received commitments from the state, New Jersey Turnpike and Port Authority that total $5.75 billion.

New Jersey officials refused to speculate about – or rule out – higher tolls.

“I think our folks, our federal representatives are working very, very hard to make sure that never happens,” said Stephen Dilts, the state’s transportation commissioner.

So, where did the money go? It's vaporware. And now, the likelihood exists that New Jersey will have to contemplate higher taxes or tolls to make up the shortfall.

Wonderful.

This is what we get when politicians make promises they can't keep.

The Runaway Pork Train Continues

The Democrats continue demanding that this massive load of pork, redistribution of wealth and a not so stealthy overhaul of medical care be passed immediately. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi is looking to get this massive pork offal passed as quickly as possible so that she can jet off to Rome, Italy. What's more important? Pelosi's travel plans or close study of the largest spending plan in the history of the nation? Pelosi's travel plans of course.

This is a 1,000+ page monstrosity and I doubt any member of Congress has actually read all of it. Many members in the House may never get the chance to read this mess before they are asked to vote on it because Pelosi has gone back on her pledge to get them a clean copy of the bill on which they are to vote.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) notes that many wont get a chance to read the bill. Even if they're provided copies, I doubt many have read all of the summations of this bill given that they are so substantial in and of themselves let alone the budget projections that show what a mess this bill makes of the economy going forward and the true cost to the nation. It isn't merely the $789 billion right now, but the $2.3 trillion or more that future generations of Americans will be paying off (if at all).

It's hysterical to hear about how the Obama Administration blames President Bush for leaving him with a trillion dollar deficit, and yet Obama is about to triple it in one fell swoop with this stimulus package, even as the Democrats ponder a follow on stimulus package that would be nearly as costly. The CBO doesn't take kindly to any of this either, and has a handy dandy graphic to highlight what this does to 2009 alone. How is any of this fiscally responsible.

It isn't.

That's why so many people are starting to balk at the package. Sen. Harry Reid doesn't know if he's got the 60 votes needed to close debate and bring the measure to a floor vote. Now that Sen. Judd Gregg is back in consideration after bailing on the Commerce Secretary nomination over the porkfest and census data grab by the White House, the numbers are even tighter.

UPDATE:
Will the stimulus stimulate the economy? Nope.

The compromise economic stimulus plan agreed to by negotiators from the House of Representatives and the Senate is short on incentives to get consumers spending again and long on social goals that won't stimulate economic activity, according to a range of respected economists.

"I think (doing) nothing would have been better," said Ed Yardeni, an investment analyst who's usually an optimist, in an interview with McClatchy. He argued that the plan fails to provide the right incentives to spur spending.

"It's unfocused. That is my problem. It is a lot of money for a lot of nickel-and- dime programs. I would have rather had a lot of money for (promoting purchase of) housing and autos . . . . Most of this plan is really, I think, aimed at stabilizing the situation and helping people get through the recession, rather than getting us out of the recession. They are actually providing less short-term stimulus by cutting back, from what I understand, some of the tax credits."

It's also curious to watch Democrats cheer the tax cuts that might provide $500-600 to many Americans when they pooh-poohed the same when President Bush offered additional rebates in that amount last year. In fact, Michelle Obama lambasted the Bush tax break, claiming that the $600 would buy only a pair of earrings. The Anchoress has more, but what is also important is that the federal government is going to provide tax breaks at a time when the states are looking to raise taxes to cover their costs.

Consider that New York City has already stated that they're not going to give the expected property tax rebates. That's roughly $400 per homeowner. In New Jersey, Gov. Corzine has contemplated something similar, and the property tax relief in New Jersey would have exceeded the amount provided by the Obama tax cut. In other words, taxpayers in many parts of the country will never see the benefit of the tax cuts because localities are busy raising taxes or cutting rebates that siphon off still more taxpayer dollars. It's a shell game, and no one can keep track of where all the money is going.

UPDATE:
The House has voted to pass this porkfest 246-183. All GOPers and seven Democrats voted against (one Democrat voted "Present"). It was bipartisan opposition to this mess.

NJ Democrats Continue Opposition To Offshore Drilling

I've noted the strong opposition to offshore drilling by the troika of Jon Corzine, Bob Menendez and Frank Lautenberg, and Menendez was actually pushing legislation that would ban drilling on the outer continental shelf altogether.

Yet, we already have a tantalizing hint at what could be offshore. There were a number of wells sunk off New Jersey's coastline years back, and the results were quite promising. Herb Jackson has the details:

The small box on the map is blown up to show four sections of the Baltimore Trough that were leased for oil and gas exploration and the names of the wells that were drilled.
Five of the wells found natural gas in these amounts:

• Texaco 642-1 -- 18.9 million cubic feet of gas per day)
• Tenneco 642-2 -- 18.5 mmcfgpd -- (also found oil at 630 barrels/day at shallower depth)
• Texaco 598-1 -- 9.4 mmcfgpd
• Exxon 599-1 -- 7.9 mmcfgpd
• Tenneco 642-3 -- 5.9 mmcfgpd

He noted back on Friday that the group the Governor put together didn't even know about those five test wells, or their findings that there might be a significant natural gas deposit offshore. Yet, Menendez is doing all he can to thwart any and all offshore drilling, which could bring natural gas to market in addition to petroleum, which also happened to have been found in the same area. It would also likely spur the state to impose severance taxes, which could help raise state revenues as well as spur industrial development jobs to support the offshore energy industry.

The Democrats continued insistence on no drilling means one thing: higher energy costs for years to come.

UPDATE:
Sen. Menendez is quite proud of his position to drive up energy costs. He relishes it in fact. He wraps it in the guise of protecting New Jersey shores from oil spills, but the reality is that while he claims that he would want the oil companies to maximize the oil and gas leases already owned by those companies, he wouldn't let them do so with the oil and gas leases along New Jersey's shore. Or anywhere near them.