Sunday, April 05, 2009

North Korea Carries Out Its Missile Test

North Korea carried out its threat to fire a long range missile that they claimed would be capable of launching a satellite into orbit. The first two stages of the missile apparently worked, but according to sources, the third stage carrying the satellite failed to work. The North Koreans claim that they did successfully insert a satellite into orbit, but if that's the case, there would be independent confirmation from multiple sources.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that the focus is on the failed third stage. Some are saying that the failure of the third stage shows that the North Koreans still can't hit the US. That fails to take into account that the two stage missile was capable of hitting targets within

The world shrugs its collective shoulders and Japan, the South Koreans, and the US are busy hoping that the UN will do what it always does - write the strongly worded letter to North Korea's Kim Jong-Il because the missile launch is a violation of UN SCR 1718, which prohibits ballistic missile tests.
Japan called the move "extremely regrettable", while South Korea said it constituted a clear breach of a United Nations resolution.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said North Korea's actions were not conducive to regional stability, as did the European Union.

China and Russia both called on all sides to act with restraint, while the UK urged North Korea to immediately halt all missile-related activity.

The UN Security Council has approved a Japanese request for an emergency session.

Washington, Tokyo and Seoul regard the launch as a clear violation of Security Council resolution 1718 adopted in October 2006, which bans North Korea from carrying out ballistic missile activity.
And what will the UN do with such a violation other than write a strongly worded letter? There's nothing that indicates the UN will take any action to enforce its resolutions.

It is naive to think otherwise.

Some of the more naive responses to the launch suggest that the missile launch is a cry for help from the North Korean regime, as per some pundits on CBS Sunday Morning today. They seem to think that this is an opening gambit to further talks and concessions. Why they believe this to be the case is little more than naive hope and overly optimistic views on a regime that has repeatedly done nothing to suggest that this is a cry for help.

A major problem with this particular vantage point is that the concessions aren't going to come from the North Koreans, but from the rest of the world to pay for North Korean's decades long insistence on subjugating its people and starving millions to death in that time while pushing ahead with a militaristic stance against the South Koreans, Japan, and the United States. Had North Korea sought to feed its people, spending most of its budget on military technologies and nuclear weapons wasn't the way to do it.

Even more asinine is that President Obama is calling for a further reduction of the world's nuclear arsenals, and is prepared to significantly cut US nuclear weapons stockpiles.
He again pointed to history to say that America must lead. “As a nuclear power – as the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon – the United States has a moral responsibility to act,” he said.

Obama proposed doing so by reducing America’s arsenal, if not altogether eliminating it; hosting a summit on nuclear security; seeking ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; strengthening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty; and pursuing a new agreement aimed at stopping the production of fissile materials.

Also, he proposes gathering up all vulnerable nuclear material – or “loose nukes” – within four years. That’s an issue Obama also worked on in the Senate, with Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.).

Though there is bipartisan support for many of the steps, Obama may face resistance from Republicans in the Senate on ratification of the Test Ban Treaty and other moves.
Never mind that rogue nations like North Korea or Iran aren't going to give up their pursuit for nuclear weapons and Iran is more than willing to use them to fulfill religious apocalyptic visions. President Obama has previously called for the shutdown of unproven missile defense systems and has been more than willing to backtrack on stationing missile defense systems that work in Eastern Europe; missile defense systems that would protect the US and its allies and their strategic and tactical interests around the world. Obama is more than willing to concede US national security to the likes of unstable regimes like Iran or North Korea.

Reducing the US stockpile actually enhances the numbers of weapons held by rogue regimes because it becomes a numbers game. A single missile fired by a rogue regime could disable wide areas with an electromagnetic pulse, causing mass confusion, huge economic losses, and fulfill the goals of the rogue regime.

The US indeed is the only nation to use nuclear weapons in wartime; President Truman authorized their use when the military provided estimates of the cost of carrying out an invasion of the Japanese home islands. Even the Ultra communications translations underestimated the numbers of Japanese troops prepared to defend the first American target on the home islands; Kyushu. Had the US engaged in the invasion of Kyushu, they would have been outnumbered and faced a kamikazi threat far greater than that which was seen during the Okinawa campaign.

In all, President Truman weighed the cost of sending millions of US soldiers against a dedicated foe that would fight to the last man (as had been seen on Iwo Jima and Okinawa), resulting in catastrophic casualties. It was a cold calculation that the use of the two nuclear weapons was made. It was also a decision that saved millions of life from a protracted conflict. Indeed, President Truman weighed the moral and ethical costs and risks of using such a weapon, and found it in the best interests of the US to use it to bring a speedy conclusion to the conflict.

Here, President Obama is more than willing to look the other way as the North Koreans move ever closer to a working nuclear weapons system mated with a missile launch capability and announces a move to reduce American nuclear stockpiles as an incentive for North Korean disarmament. It's the exact opposite strategy and shows the world that the President is weakening US capabilities at a time when the world is more than willing to test the new President.

The tests are coming fast and furious, and he's failing. This is not good.

No comments: