Monday, October 06, 2008

Saudis Hosting Taliban- Afghan Confab

There are multiple reports noting that the Saudis are busy trying to work out a deal between the Afghan government and Taliban forces. The Taliban would have to cease their war against the government and their terror ties in exchange for a peaceful arrangement.
The current round of talks is anticipated to be a first step in a long process. According to the source close to the talks, it has taken two years of behind-the-scenes meetings to get to this point.

The talks took place between September 24 and 27 and involved 11 Taliban delegates, two Afghan government officials, a representative of former mujahadeen commander and U.S. foe Gulbadin Hekmatyar, and three others.

It was the first such meeting aimed at bringing a negotiated settlement to the Afghan conflict and for the first time, all parties were able to discuss their positions and objectives openly and transparently, the source said.

Saudi Arabia was one of only three countries that recognized the Taliban leadership during its rule over Afghanistan in the 1990s, but that relationship was severed over Mullah Omar's refusal to hand over al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

Nothing that the Saudis do is without personal benefit to them. The Saudis are busy trying to curtail Iran's influence around the world, and getting the situation in Afghanistan off the American/West's plate helps refocus attention on Iran.

At the same time, there's no reason that the US would sign off on any such deal unless the Taliban gives up Mullah Omar, top Taliban thugs who were involved in the decision to shelter al Qaeda, to say nothing about demanding the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden and other top al Qaeda that are believed to roam the Afghan-Pakistani border. The Taliban clearly have realized that they cannot win this war against the US and NATO forces, but the US and NATO forces have been unable to eradicate the Taliban elements because of the situation along the Pakistani border region.

If, and this is a huge if, the Taliban agree to such terms, then the US and NATO can focus on rebuilding efforts inside Afghanistan and can continue efforts at eliminating al Qaeda leadership in the region. It would require the Taliban to give up all connections to al Qaeda, which would vastly reduce al Qaeda's capabilities to hide in the region.

That said, I am concerned that the Saudi plan will do nothing but enable al Qaeda's leadership to slip away, perhaps to Pakistan or back to the Horn of Africa.

Meanwhile, the US continues its targeted attacks against Taliban operating inside Pakistan. The latest raid may have killed a top al Qaeda or Taliban thug, but Pakistani reports are notoriously unreliable.

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